CHANCES OF DIRECT U.S.-IRAN GULF CLASH SEEN LOW
U.S. moves to increase its warships in
and around the Mideast Gulf could trigger more attacks on
unprotected merchant ships but run little risk of sparking a
direct military clash with Iran, diplomats said.
    They said the American decision inevitably carries some
risk of armed confrontation, but Iran -- despite its blunt
rhetoric -- would want to avoid this as much as Washington.
    "As Iran knows very well, what America is bringing into the
Gulf could do serious damage," said one western diplomat.
    Diplomats see the greatest potential danger in more attacks
on "soft targets" such as merchant shipping not protected by
American or other western navy vessels patrolling the Gulf.
    The risk of Iranian attack on U.S. Warships or Kuwaiti oil
tankers carrying the U.S. Flag and under naval escort is rated
by diplomats as low. However, "There is the threat that the
Iranians, seeing these heavily protected U.S.-flag tankers,
will go for softer targets," one diplomat said.
    Tehran Radio quoted Iran's top defence spokesman Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani as saying yesterday that Washington was
"moving to the brink of an armed encounter with us."
    The U.S. is increasing its Gulf fleet from seven to 10
warships and sending the refurbished battleship Missouri to
patrol just outside the Strait of Hormuz.
    The build-up ties in with U.S. plans to start escorting
Kuwaiti oil tankers next month, which have been re-registered
to fly the American flag to give them naval protection.
    Shipping serving Kuwait has come under repeated attack by
Iran, angered at the emirate's war backing of Iraq.
    Concern in the region has mounted over the threat posed by
Chinese-made Silkworm missiles, which the U.S. says Iran is
preparing to deploy near the Strait of Hormuz.
    The Missouri, with its four-escort flotilla, is likely to
make Iran think twice about using the missiles, diplomats said.
    A military source in the Gulf has said Iran also set up a
launching site for the Silkworms on captured Iraqi soil in the
Faw peninsula, within range of Kuwait.
    "But anything that went as far as a direct attack on Kuwaiti
territory would be a very serious escalation" likely moving
world opinion against Iran, remarked one.
    Some diplomats believe Iran could also consider carrying
out reprisals against the United States outside the Gulf.
    Rafsanjani, who is also parliamentary leader, predicted
last Friday "a river of blood" throughout the world in the event
of any U.S. strike against Iran.
    Western diplomats said Iran, which Washington has accused
of being behind state-sponsored terrorism, had no demonstrable
capacity to carry out attacks in the U.S. itself.
    Diplomats saw few potential targets in Lebanon now that
most Americans have left in the wake of kidnappings linked to
pro-Iranian groups. But Europe and Asia were potential
trouble-spots, and Kuwait was one of the most obvious targets.
    Any backlash was likely to take the form of sabotage or
other action to make it difficult to blame Iran, they added.
 Reuter
