SOVIET 1988 GRAIN TARGET INDICATES 1987 OUTPUT
Recent announcements from Moscow of
next year's grain production targets indicate that the Soviets
are estimating this year's grain crop at 205 to 213 mln tonnes,
Agriculture Department analysts said.
    USDA is projecting the Soviet crop at 210 mln tonnes, but
some earlier estimates from Soviet officials were that the 1987
grain crop could match the 1978 record of 237 mln tonnes.
    Moscow outlined its economic targets for 1988 on Monday,
putting the grain harvest goal at 235 mln tonnes. An analyst of
Soviet agriculture at USDA noted that a recent article in
Izvestia said Soviet grain production in 1988 is planned to be
"25 to 30 mln tonnes more than expected this year."
    "This indicates that their own estimate is for a 205 to 213
mln tonne (grain) crop," the analyst said.
   
    In calculating Moscow's crop estimate, USDA used the 235
mln tonne production goal, as well as a 238 mln tonne figure
published in a Soviet economic journal this month.
    USDA's production estimate of 210 mln tonnes reflects a
range of 207 to 212 mln tonnes, a USDA source said.
    Late season rains damaged Soviet crops, slowed harvest
progress and lowered Soviet production, analysts said.
    While in the U.S. earlier this month, Soviet agriculture
official Viktor Nikonov predicted that the grain crop would be
as good or better than last year's 210 mln tonne harvest.
    A member of Nikonov's party commented that although 230 mln
tonnes of grain were in the fields, harvest problems would
bring the final crop down to around 210 mln tonnes.
 Reuter
