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tokens: KL and IGH are funded via a University of Glasgow Lord Kelvin-Adam Smith Fellowship. IGH is supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship. The authors thank the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) for support for the team “Improving the Reliability of Solar Eruption Predictions to Facilitate the Determination of Targets-of-Opportunity for Instruments With a Limited Field-of-View”, where this work benefited from productive discussions. The authors would like to thank N. Gyenge for very helpful discussions about active longitudes and providing the data from Gyenge et al. (2016) .