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tokens: is shown in Fig. 4(b) . Figure 4. (a) Reconstruction of B on a 1000-yr time-scale. Grey circles – 400-yr reconstruction. (b) Reconstruction of B on a 3200-yr time-scale. The grey areas are error intervals. 6 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Here, using the MSR method, implemented by using equations ( 1 )–( 4 ), we have built reconstructions of the variations of the IMF strength B on different time-scales: 170, 400, 1000, and 3200 yr, based on different proxies ( IDV , Wolf numbers 2.0, and radiocarbon reconstruction). Typical correlation coefficients that we obtained are within the range 0.92–0.95, which on the one hand indicates the success of B reconstructions, and on the other hand, shows that we do not take into account all the factors of B variations in proxies, but only ∼85–90 per cent of the dispersion. Changes in IMF strength B vary significantly: for annual values , for a decade DB ∼ 2.5. Note that the cyclicity that makes the largest contribution to the dispersion in Fig. 4(b) is made by variations with the period slightly longer than 200 yr (Suess cycle). In order to see the most long-term trends in IMF variations, we compose the average values of B over 210 yr (see Fig. 5 ). Figure 5. The variations in the last 3200 yr of the B mean values for 210 yr (black circles) and their smoothed values over three points (white circles). Dashed line – linear trend, dotted line – mean, and dash–dotted line – forecast. Noteworthy is the long-term decreasing trend, which is −(0.39 ± 0.17) · 10 −3 nT· yr −1 over the past 3200 yr. Although its significance is ensured only by 2.3σ, the values smoothed over three points and the behaviour in time relative to the average (Fig. 5 ) speak of its reality. We also note that geomagnetic changes are unlikely to have contributed to the nature of this trend since we believe that the reconstruction used by Usoskin et al. ( 2014 ) is based on modern geomagnetic dipole moment data from the 1000 archeomagnetic field models (Licht et al. 2013 ). We also believe that the relationship between IDV and sunspot numbers depends only on the time-scale τ, but not on time t : any reconstruction is generally based on this assumption of time invariance. At the same time, an episode of increasing B has been observed over the past ∼400 yr. This means that the cosmic ray flux near the Earth’s orbit during these years decreases with time. As speculation, according to the Tinsley–Heelis mechanism (Tinsley Heelis 1993 ), this should lead to a decrease in the reflective properties (albedo) of the Earth’s atmosphere and an increase in the solar energy flux that reaches the Earth’s surface. All of this can make a partial contribution to the global warming effect. On the other hand, judging by the general nature of the variations in Fig. 5 , in the next 200–250 yr we will face an episode of a decrease in the IMF strength so that the increase in the Earth’s global temperature will decrease or decrease the increase rate if it is really related