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tokens: I would like to especially thank Geoff Marcy for extensive discussions and advice, Howard Isaacson for sharing samples from his MCMC fits to the Keck RV data, and an anonymous reviewer whose comments helped to improve this manuscript. I am also grateful for helpful discussions with Lauren Weiss, Rebekah Dawson, Tim Morton, Brice-Olivier Demory, Brian Jackson, Jack Lissauer, Tom Loredo, Eric Ford, David Hogg, and John Johnson. I acknowledge support provided by NASA through Hubble Fellowship grant #HF-51313 awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS 5–26555. This work also benefited from the Summer Program on Modern Statistical and Computational Methods for Analysis of Kepler Data, held at SAMSI, Research Triangle Park, NC in 2013 June. This research has made use of the Exoplanet Orbit Database and the Exoplanet Data Explorer at exoplanets.org.