tokens: We thank Dave Campbell, Will Cowley and Peder Norberg for their contributions to this work. We thank Claudia Maraston for supplying versions of her stellar population model for different IMFs. We thank Rychard Bouwens, Ignacio Ferreras and Ian Smail for comments on the paper. Finally, we thank the referee Bruno Henriques for a detailed and constructive report that helped improve the paper. This work was supported by the Science and Technology Facilities Council grants ST/F001166/1 and ST/L00075X/1, and by European Research Council grant GA 267291 (Cosmiway). This work used the DiRAC Data Centric system at Durham University, operated by the Institute for Computational Cosmology on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility ( www.dirac.ac.uk ). This equipment was funded by BIS National E-infrastructure capital grant ST/K00042X/1, STFC capital grant ST/H008519/1, and STFC DiRAC Operations grant ST/K003267/1 and Durham University. DiRAC is part of the National E-Infrastructure. CMB acknowledges receipt of a Research Fellowship from the Leverhulme Trust. Galaxy catalogues calculated using the model described in this paper will be made available on a relational data base accessible from http://virgodb.dur.ac.uk/ .
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