It may be a British staple but the traditional fish and chips is in peril. As waters around the UK get warmer, popular species of fish including haddock, plaice and lemon sole could become less common as they migrate to more preferable water temperatures. And this could see the prices of these fish soar, or see them being taken off the menu completely. Researchers have developed a model that combined long-term fisheries data with climate model projections from the Met Office. From this they predicted the abundance and distribution of popular fish, such as haddock and plaice, could fall as the North Sea warms and this could increase the price of fish and chips . In the past 40 years, reports suggest the North Sea has warmed four times faster than the global average. And with further warming predicted over the coming century, fisheries and scientists are studying the impact on so-called commercial species. This includes research by Dr Steve Simpson, senior lecturer in marine biology and global change at the University of Exeter and Dr Martin Genner, senior lecturer in fish ecology and evolution at the University of Bristol. The researchers developed a model that combined long-term fisheries data with climate model projections from the Met Office. From this they were able to predict the abundance and distribution of the UK's fish over the next 50 years. As the North Sea warms, species won't be able to migrate north to avoid warming temperatures because habitat of a suitable depth is rare. As a result UK fisheries will need to replace current species with those that prefer warmer water such as red mullet (left) and John dory (right), for example . Their research found that as the North Sea warms, species won't be able to migrate north to avoid warming temperatures because habitat of a suitable depth is rare. And due to higher temperatures, numbers of many of the species are predicted to fall. Marine biologists have found that shellfish take on a sour flavour if they are reared in slightly acidified sea water. They warn that as the planet's oceans grow more acidic, due to rising carbon dioxide levels, many of our favourite seafoods could become less appetising. Climate change experts predict that over the next century, the acidity levels of the world's oceans could drop from pH8 to pH7.5. Many have warned this could lead to shrimps and prawns struggling to build the shells and skeletons they need to survive. 'We will see a real changing of the guard in the next few decades,' said Dr Simpson. 'Our models predict cold water species will be squeezed out, with warmer water fish likely to take their place. 'For sustainable UK fisheries, we need to move on from haddock and chips and look to southern Europe for our gastronomic inspiration.' These fish include John dory and red mullet, for example. According to the study, fish distributions are limited by water temperature and some species can only thrive in certain habitats and depths. Dr Martin Genner, senior lecturer in Fish Ecology and Evolution at the University of Bristol, added: 'Long-term standardised fisheries surveys from many European countries, alongside leading climate models for the region, mean it is a unique region to develop and test new modeling approaches.' 'The modeling technique used in this analysis performed remarkably well when tested on available long-term datasets. 'This provides real confidence in the model's ability to predict future patterns of fish distributions around the UK. The study was published in Nature Climate Change.
Researchers developed a model that combined long-term fisheries data with climate model projections from the Met Office . As the North Sea warms the number of popular species is likely to fall . The prices of these staple fish could also rise as they become more rare . John dory and red mullet may replace haddock, plaice and lemon sole .