Term, IT=Intermediate Term)
The Wave-2:5 high would be confirmed as complete on a declinebelow the Wave-1:5 low. Bonds declined for four trading days and thenbegan to slowly advance.No Trade Management Worksheet was prepared for this trade, as thetrade was stopped out relatively quickly before any new, relevantinformation was madeClosed Trade Critique WorksheetThe 2-unit short position taken on the close Aug. 17 was stopped out onSept. 2 when bonds elected the protective buy-stop by trading one tickabove the high of the entry-day, Aug. 17.Traders should not hesitate to include any information consideredrelevant in the Trade Comments and Lessons Learned section of theworksheet. These comments will be very valuable when reviewing pasttrading activity in the future.
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Continue to take each trade signal as long as your opinion of the marketposition has not changed.
Five lime factors are shown on the chart above that cluster in the threetrading day period of Sept. 1-5 (Thursday-Monday). The time factors forthe Aug. 23-24 period are not shown for lack of chart space. If bondscontinue to rally. Sept 1-5 should be the maximum period to complete theWave-2:5 correction.On Sept, 2, right within the Sept. 1-5 Projected Turning Point Period,bonds made a wide-range outside-reversal-day with a high one tick abovethe previous high of Aug. 17. The short position was stopped out.On the very day the short position was stopped out, the idealconditions to complete an ABC corrective rally are made with the Sept. 2Outside-reversal-day high.Time (Sept. 1-5), price (50%-78.6% retracement), pattern (Wave-2,ABC) and daily reversal signal (outside-reversal-day) coincided.Another two-unit short position is taken on the close of Sept. 2 at102.09. The protective buy-stop is placed at 103.26, one lick above thereversal-day high.
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Trade Summary To Date, Include $35 Commission(ST=Short Term, IT=Intermediate Term)
Trade Management WorksheetA Trade Preparation and Initiation Worksheet is not made for this secondshort position as the information included on the initial short trade was thesame for this second short position.The next page shows the Trade Management Worksheet that wascompleted a few days following the Sept. 2 entry date.
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Intermediate Term Wave-5 Price and Time ObjectivesLet's step back again for a new look at the larger degree picture. Weconsider that Aug. 2,1994 completed a Wave-4 high counting from theOct. 15,1993 high. We also consider that bonds have completed Waves 1and 2 of the larger degree Wave-5. Bonds should continue to decline to anew low before completing Wave-5.As the chart on the top of the next page shows, the ideal priceprojection for the Wave-5 low is 97.16-97.12. This relatively narrow pricezone includes where W.5 = 100% W.1 and 38.2% W.1-3, each typicalW.5 projections. This price zone also included the 50% percentage changeretracement of the Sept. 1990 low to the Oct. 1993 high.These price projections for the bond Wave-5 low are also included asexamples in the Dynamic Price Analysis chapter. Refer to that chapter formore detail. If bonds continued to decline as anticipated, the sub-divisionsof Wave-5 should fine-tune the price projections. Ideally, we will find theprice projections of the sub-divisions of Wave-5 would fall at or near theWave-5 price projections.The chart on the bottom of the opposite page is from the DynamicTime Analysis chapter and shows the Time Rhythm Zone and DynamicTime Projections for a Wave-5 low projected from the Aug. 2, 1994Wave-4 high. The Time Rhythm Zone indicates the Wave-5 low shouldbe made in the Oct. 26-Nov. 28 period. The Nov. 11-14 Dynamic TimeProjection falls in the TRZ period. For more detail how these specifictime projections were made, review the Dynamic Time Analysis chapter,Wave-5 Minimum Price and Time Objectives97.16: Minimum price objective for W.5Oct. 26: Minimum time objective for W.5
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The minimum W.5 price objective is 97.16, the beginning of the ideal price range forW.5. Ideally, the price projections of the subdivisions of W.5 will fall at or near the W.5projections.
The minimum time objective for W.5 is Oct. 26, the beginning of the Time Rhythm Zonefor the W.5 low. The ideal period to complele W.5 it Nov. 11-14, the Dynamic Timewhich falls within the TRZ.
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Trailing The Stop and Adding PositionsWhen the trend is confirmed, trail the protective stop-loss to protect openprofits.The W.3:5 trend is confirmed when the market trades below the W.l:5low at 100.29. If this should occur, trail the protective buy-stop at one tickabove the 3DH.Add positions on a trend-continuation trade entry set-up.A Wave-3 is usually the longest wave in a five-wave sequence. In thecurrent case, W.3:5 should be greater in time and price than W.1:5. Oncethe trend is confirmed by making the Trend Continuation Signal of a tradebelow the W.l:5 low, consider trend-continuation trade entry set-ups toadd a position.What is the logical profit objective for the short-term position of a multunit trade?Recall from the Trading Strategies chapter that the short-term tradeobjective should be the objective reached even if the trend was theopposite of what is anticipated. In other words, if an impulsive trendis anticipated, what would be the typical objective if the trend wascorrective, not impulsive? In the current case with bonds, the 100%Alternate Price Projection where W.3:5 would equal W.1:5 is theminimum price objective anticipated even if the trend were not impulsive.Bonds continued to decline to below the Wave-l:5 low confirmingSept. 2 completed Wave-2:5. On Sept. 9, bonds declined sharply to closebelow the Wave-1:5 low and hit the profit objective of 100.02 for theshort-term position.Trade Summary To Date, includes $35 commission(ST = Short Term, IT = Intermediate Term)
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On Sept. 9, bonds made a sharp decline below the W.1:5 low confirming the W.2:5 high. Bonds also reached the profit-taking objective forthe short-term unit of the two unit short position. No matter how confidentwe are of the position of a market, we never know in advance if a trendwill continue. In the long run, it is most profitable to trade in two or threeunit positions and take profits on one unit on a short-term objective. Eventhough we have taken profits on the short-term objective, we still anticipate a continued decline unless and until the market signals otherwise.With the close below the W.l:5 low at 100.29, the protective-buy slopon the second, intermediate term position is trailed at one tick above the3DH. If bonds reach a time and price support objective, the stop will bebrought closer to the market.
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Gann Pull-Back Trend Continuation Trade Set-UpIn the second week of Sept., bonds made a three day rally, setting up aGann-Pull Back (GPB) trend-continuation trade set-up. The chart on thenext page will show this set-up. Bonds were still near the 100% AlternatePrice Projection. Lower prices were anticipated. As of Sept. 15, bonds hadmade three-higher highs for the GPB trade entry set-up. A sell-stop isplaced one tick below the prior day's low. On Sept. 16, bonds declinedbelow the prior day's low electing the sell-stop at 100.09, one tick belowthe prior day's low. The protective buy-stop for this new position is placedat 100.29, one tick above the higher of entry day or the prior day per theGann Pull-Back trend-continuation initial stop-loss rules.There are now two short positions. The intermediate-term unit takenfrom the Sept. 2 outside-reversal-day high and one Taken Sept, 16 on theGann Pull-Back, trend-continuation signal.Protective Stops and Trend-Continuation Trade EntryEach trend-continuation trade entry set-up includes an initial protectivestop rule that is quite close to the trade-entry price. In the case of the GPBtrade entry set-up, the protective sell-stop is placed one tick above thehigher of the high of entry day or the high of the day prior to entry. (SeeGann Pull-Back. Trading Strategies chapter.)Even if an additional position is taken with a trend-continuation entrystrategy, the protective stop on the open position should continue to followthe existing strategy.In the current case with bonds, the protective buy-stop on the intermediate-term short position is one tick above the 3DH. This strategy shouldbe maintained. Trend-continuation entry strategies are high probabilityand low capital exposure positions that ore only maintained if the shortterm trend immediately continues in favor of the trade. Immediately beingstopped out of a trend-continuation trade is not a sign the larger degreetrend has changed. It is only a signal that the immediate short-term trendmay not continue.If the trend immediately continues in favor of the trend-continuationtrade, the protective sell stop for both open positions should soon be thesame.
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Short Position Added On Gann-Pull Back Set-Up
From the Sept. 13 low, bonds made three higher-highs making aGann Pull-Back trend-continuation trade set-up. A sell-stop to enter ashort position is placed one tick below the prior day's low each day.On Sept. 16, bonds declined below the prior day's low (C, 100.10) fora GPB trade entry. The initial protective buy-stop is placed at 100,29 onetick above the high or 100.28 (B).At the time of the GPS short sale, the 3DH was at 101.26 (A). Thestop on the open intermediate term position remains one tick above Ihe3DH.The wide-range down-day of Sept. 16 declined below the Sept. 13low (D). The 3DH is now at 100.28. The protective buy-stop tor bothshort positions is now the same at one tick above the 3DH.Trade Summary To Date , includes $35 commission(ST = Short Term, IT = Interrmediate Term)
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Trade Management WorksheetA new and updated Trade Management Worksheet is. prepared after takingthe new Gann Pull-Back short position.The time and price targets are described on the pages following theworksheet.
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Time and Price Support ProjectionsCalculate in advance the time and price projections with the greatestprobability of support or resistance and trend change. If an Elliott Wavepattern is evident, consider the high probability time and price projectionsthat are typical for the wave in progress.Wave-3 is in progress for bonds. What are the high probability timeand price targets typical for a Wave-3?Wave-3:5 Price Target: 97.34-96.0897.24: W.3:5 = 162%W.1:596,08: W.3:5 = 262% W.2:5.These projections fall in the same price area as the larger degreeprojections at 97.16-97.12 for the larger degree W.5 low shown earlier.Unfortunately, W.3:5 was not clearly subdividing into a five wavestructure. There was no confident way to project the lesser degree subdivisions.Wave-3:5 Time Projection: Oct 3-7Oct. 5-7 included four minor-degree, time projections including the 162%Time Retracement where the time of Wave-3:5 would equal 162% of thetime of Wave-l:5. See the chart on the opposite page.Oct. 3-5 was a larger degree Dynamic Time Projection cluster made fromthe Aug. 2 high shown on the chart several pages ago,Oct. 3-7 is the combination of both degrees of dynamic time projections.Should these time and price support zones be considered targets tocomplete Wave-5 from the Aug. 2 high, not just Wave-3:5? Maybe. Thetime objectives do not fall within the minimum time projection of Oct. 26for a W.5 low according to the TRZ. However, if the decline from theAug. 2 high were clearly sub-dividing into a five wave structure intothese time and price support projections, a final low may be anticipated.Otherwise, a low made in these support projections would probably onlybe a W.3:5. As bonds approached the Oct. 3-7 PTPP, they were not clearlycompleting a five- wave structure.Adjust trading strategies as the market evolves.As a market approaches time and price objectives for the current trend,stop-losses on open positions should be brought relatively close to the
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market. There are currently two open short positions. If bonds shouldreach the price support zone within the time support zone, protective stoplosses on both positions should be adjusted daily to one tick above the1DH.Time Support: Oct. 3-7Price Support: 97.24-96.03
On Oct. 5, right within the Oct. 3-7 time support zone, bonds reached97.24, the beginning of the price support zone at 97.24-96.08. The protective buy-stop should now be adjusted daily to one tick above the one-dayhigh (1DH). Two day's later on Oct. 7, bonds made an outside-reversalday (OSRD) precisely within the projected time and price support zones.The next trading day, Oct. 10, the two short positions were stopped out asbonds rallied above the 1DH. The short positions were not stopped out onthe Oct. 7 OSRD because the previous day was an inside-day. Inside daysare not counted for 1, 2 or 3 day highs.Trade Summary To Date, includes $35 commission(ST = Short Term, IT = Intermediate Term)
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Closed Trade Critique WorksheetThe next page shows the Closed Trade Critique Worksheet that includesthe intermediate-term and Gann Pull-Back short positions.
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Trading Strategies Evolve As The Market EvolvesThe Aug. 2 high to Oct. 7 low did not appear to he a complete five-wavestructure. Bonds should still make a Wave-4:5 corrective rally followed bya further decline to a new low. Ideally, the final Wave 5:5 low would bemade in the Oct. 26-Nov. 28 TRZ and at or near the Nov. 11-14 FTPP fora low.The next trading objective is to look to enter a short position at or neara Wave-4:5 corrective top or on a confirmation that a Wave-4:5 correctivetop is complete. A Wave-4:5 corrective top should be made in the broadprice zone of 99.18-100.17.Ideal Wave-4 Price Objective: 99.18-99.27 or 100.12-100.1799.18: W.c = 162% W.b99.19: 38.2% retracement, W.399.23:W.c = 61.8% W.a99.27: W.4 = 100% W.2100.12: 50% retracememt100.17: W.c = 100% W.aTrading Strategy: Sell bonds on the close of a daily reversal signal ifbonds have reached at least 99.18. Or, if a trend-reversal trade set-up is notmade, sell bonds on a trend-continuation trade signal following a tradebelow the Wave-3:5 low.On Oct. 18, bonds made an ABC corrective high at 99.21 on areversal-day, right within the ideal price projection for a Wave-4:5 high at99.18-99.27. The sell order is made at the close of 99.01 with a protectivebuy-stop at 99.22, one tick above the reversal-day high. Bonds continuedto decline to below the Wave-b:4:5 low confirming the Wave-4:5 high.
Trade Summary To Date, includes $35 commission(ST - Short Term, IT = Intermediate Term)
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Wave 5:5 Price ObjectiveBonds continued lower from the Oct. 18, Wave-4:5 high and continued todecline to below the Wave-3:5 low. At what price should The Wave-5:5low be made?The chart included with the Trade Management Worksheet on the nestpage shows that 95.30-94.30 is the ideal target for the Wave-5:5 low. Thisprice zone included all typical Wave-5 price objectives.Wave-5:5 Price Target: 95.30-94.3095.30: W.5 = 100% W.195.11: W.5 = 162% W.494.30: W.5 = 61.8%W.1-3As a market reaches the time and/or price targets with a high probabilityof terminating the trend, trail the protective buy-stop relatively close tothe current market position.Adjust the protective buy-stop: On a trade below 95.30, the beginningof the ideal price zone projected for the W.5:5 low, trail the protectivebuy-stop at one tick above the 1DH.When Projected Time, Price and Pattern Coincide, Change IsInevitableIn early Nov., bonds closed below the Wave-3 low. The protective buystop is trailed at the 3DH Bonds were making new lows into the TRZbeginning Oct. 26 for a final bottom. Nov. 11 was approaching whichbegan the Dynamic Time Projection for the W.5 low (Nov. 11-14). Bondswere nearing the time and price projections for a Wave-5:5 low. Ideally,the Wave-5:5 decline from the Oct. 18 high would sub-divide into fivewaves.Bonds never reached the 95.30 price which would have changed theprotective buy-stop strategy to the 1DH. On Nov. 10, bonds traded abovethe 3DH stopping out the short position.The following two pages include the Trade Management and ClosedTrade Critique Worksheets for this bond short trade.
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When Time, Price and Pattern Coincide, Change Is Inevitable
The final Wave-5:5 low was made Nov. 11 at 96.01 precisely withinthe time projection for a low and just three ticks short of the ideal priceprojection.Time (Oct. 26-Nov. 28 TRZ and Nov. 11-14 PTPP), Price (95,3094.30, W.5:5 projections) and Pattern (W.5 from Oct. 1993 high) hadall coincided to form a major low. The only missing factor was Wave-5:5did not appear to sub-divide in an ideal, five-wave impulse structure.However, if you look at a close-only chart (not shown), you will find [heNov. 11 closing low completed an ideal five minor waves from the Oct. 18high.
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Trade Summary; Dec. 1994 Bond Trades: 8/17/94 -11/10/94Below is a table of the summary of all of the trades described with a chartshowing each buy and sell signal.Trade Summary To Date, includes $35 commission(ST = Short Term, IT = Intermediate Term)
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It Really Is Easier Than You ThinkIt has taken over 30 pages to describe in detail the approach, analysis andtrading strategies that were a part of just these four trades that took placeover a three month period. In actual practice, it takes only a few minutesper day to update the analysis, review the market position and prepare thetrading strategies.If you review this section again, note how few price and rime calculations were actually made as the market unfolded over this period. Mostimportant, review the consistency of approach.1. The market position (major trend and position in the trend) is firstconsidered.2. The time and price projections anticipated to put the market in alow-risk, low-capital exposure trade set-up are calculated and notedon the worksheet,3. Trades were only entered on a daily trend-reversal or trendcontinuation signal when the market was in the appropriate time,price and pattern position.4. Early in the trend sequence, two-unit positions were taken. Profitswere token on one unit at a short-term price objective. The secondunit was held in the event the anticipated price projections weremet.5. Early in the trend sequence, additional units were added on low-risk,low-capital exposure trend-continuation signals,6. The initial protective slop-loss was not adjusted until the marketaction confirmed the trend direction.1. The protective stop-loss was trailed fairly far from the currentmarket activity (3DH) until the market reached either the minimumor ideal price projection.8. The protective stop-loss was then brought close to the market(1DH).
Consistency Of Approach Is A Key Factor To Trading Success
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Bonds declined from the Aug. 2. 1994, Wave-4 high in a five-wavestructure. While each of the waves did not sub-divide ideally, they eachmade their highs and lows at typical price and tune projections for thatparticular wave. Do market trends always unfold in almost ideal five-wavestructures at direct hits of projected tune and price? Of course not. Butthey often do! If you stick to a trading plan, you will take advantage ofthe opportunity each time they do. When they don't, your DynamicTrading analysis and trading strategics should help to capture relativelysmall profits and keep losses relatively small while you remain in aposition to take advantage of a trend swing.Do all corrections unfold in nice symmetrical ABC, zigzags? Ofcourse not. But many of them do! You can never know how a market willunfold. But you must have the discipline to wait and be prepared to takeadvantage of high probability market positions when they do unfold.Bonds Following The Nov. 11, 1994, Wave-Five LowLet's continue to follow the bond activity and implement trading strategiesfor the months that followed the Nov. 1994 low. The following pages willnot provide as much descriptive and commentary detail as the prior pages.We will rely more on the trading log worksheets for the necessaryinformation. Most importantly, the approach will remain consistent.Bonds made a five-wave bear trend of just over a year from the Oct.1993 high to the Nov. 1994 low. Since the five-wave decline began fromhistoric high levels for bond futures, we may consider it Wave-1 of a longterm, five-wave sequence. Long term Elliott wave analysis is not particularly reliable, so let's not make a long-term analysis just yet.We should anticipate that a corrective trend would reach the broadzones of 38.2%-61.8% price and time retracements and should not exceedthe 78,6% price retraccment. These are very broad ranges, but at leastinitially provide us with minimum and maximum time and price targets toanticipate. The dynamic time and pattern analysis as the market unfolds aswell as the price projections of lesser degree should help to pinpoint theimportant targets to complete the corrective rally.
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Minimum Time and Price Objectives For The CorrectionThe assumption is Nov. 11,1994 completed a major five-wave declinefrom the Oct. 1993 high. A corrective rally from the Nov. low should beof greater "degree" than any of the corrective rallies that were subdivisions of the bear trend. A corrective rally should "overbalance" thecorrective rallies within the five-wave decline. In other words, the timeand price of the corrective advance should exceed the largest time andprice of the Wave 2 and 4 corrective rallies.The largest corrective price rally was Wave-A of Wave-4. Thealternate price projection of W.A:4 projected from the Nov. 11,1994low is at 101.20, A corrective rally from the Nov. 11 low should exceed101.20,Recall from the previous section that the continuous spot futures chartdistorted the Wave-2 rally at roll-over to appear like an irregular-ABC.The March 1994 contract showed that Wave-B did not actually tradebelow the Wave-1 low. The Wave-2 correction lasted 66 CDs, Sixty-sixcalendar days from the Nov. 11, 1994 low is Jan. 16, 1995. A correctiverally from the Nov. 11 low should continue beyond Jan. 16,1995.
Jan. 16 and 101.20 are only the very minimum lime and price rangesanticipated for the corrective rally. Being aware of the minimum rangeshelps the trader keep a perspective on a trend or counter-trend and avoidtaking a position against the trend too early. Other Dynamic Trading
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factors will provide the high probability targets for support, resistance andtrend reversal.Typical Time and Price Objectives For The CorrectionThe typical correction falls in the 38,2%-61.8% time and price retracementzones. From an Elliott wave perspective, corrections very often concludein the price range of the previous Wave-4 and usually at the extreme ofWave-4. The Wave-4 high fell at 106.23 just above the 38.2%retracement. This provides a strong confirmation that the corrective rallyshould reach 106.01 or higher.The 38,2% time retracement is April 13, 1995, There is a highprobability that a corrective rally will not be complete prior to April 13,1995.
The minimum and typical lime and price targets for the corrective rallyprovide us with important yardsticks to judge the position of a correctionWe should anticipate the corrective rally will exceed the minimumobjectives and reach the typical objectives unless the Dynamic Tradingtechnical position of the correction provides a compelling reason to thinkotherwise.
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Buy Bottoms, Sell TopsWhen the Dynamic Trading analysis provides overwhelming evidence ofa trend reversal, trading strategies should be oriented to entering a positionon the first opportunity rather than waiting for the market to confirm thenew trend.In the current case with bonds, each factor of time, price and patternstrongly signals that Nov. 11, 1994 completed the bear market. A fivewove sequence should always be in the direction of the larger degreetrend. If the larger degree trend has turned bullish, a five-wave advanceshould follow the Nov. 11 low.A Wave-2 usually retraces at least 50% and usually not more than78.6% of the Wave-1. The trading strategy is to look to buy bonds on adaily reversal signal in the 50%-78.6% retracement of the initial minorrally. If bonds enter the 50%-78.6% retracement zone, a long positionshould also be taken on a trend-continuation signal.The next page is the Trade Preparation and Initiation Worksheet toprepare to enter a bond long position.
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Dynamic Trader - Chapter 7
Trade ManagementBonds did not make a daily reversal signal after having declined belowthe 50% retracement. An inside-day was made Nov. 18 which provided aninside-day trade-entry set-up. A buy-stop to enter a long position is placedone tick above the high of the day prior to the inside-day. The dayfollowing the inside-day did not trade out of the range of the day prior tothe inside-day and did not trade below the low of the inside-day. The buystop was held for the next day.On Nov. 22, the buy-stop was elected for a two-unit long position. Theprotective sell-stop was placed one tick below the low of the inside-day.A profit objective for the short-term unit is 97.29, the 100% AlternatePrice Projection.On a trade above 97.20, the W.1 high, the protective stop-loss shouldbe trailed at the 3DL for both units.
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Trade Management #2The chart on the next Trade Management Worksheet on the nextpage is up-to-date through Dec. 2, the last comment entry on the priorworksheet.The entry on the previous worksheet for Nov. 29 noted that bondsmade a minor decline into the price range at W.1. An Elliott wave ''rule"(guideline) is W.4 should not trade into the range of W.1 although withclose-only data, a daily close had not been made in the closing range ofW.1. Unless both daily range and closing data violate a "rule", I usuallycontinue under the assumption the most obvious pattern is correct. In thiscase, a note was made that the pattern may be aW.l-2 and followed byW.l-2 of W.3. Bonds would have to accelerate the bull trend above theW.5 price objective (99.08-99.19) to alter the assumed wave count to W.l2-1:3-2:3.The next worksheet is dated Dec. 2 1994 and continues with this bondtrade where the last worksheet ended.
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Closed Trade Critique WorksheetThe intermediate term position was stopped out on Dec. 7 when the 1DL(one-day-low) was taken out. The Dec. 6-7 snap-back-reversal was madeat the coincidence of time, price and pattern. Each of these factors were inplace for the completion of a minor five wave advance.Note that the consistency of approach to this trade was exactly thesame as the prior trades for the Wave-5 decline into the Nov. 11 low.The same entry signals (trend-reversal or trend-continuation) wereemployed as well as the same protective stop-loss strategies.We would anticipate that this minor five-wave advance was either aWave