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 AAbsolute point value, 91Acceleration, 126, 150-152, 154Acceleration factor, 98-99, 442Accumulated average, 68Accumulated Swing Index (ASI), 287Accumulation, 216, 217Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) Oscillator,140-143Action/reaction systems, 294-297Adaptive Relative Strength Index (ARSI), 440Adaptive techniques, 288, 289, 436-449Chande's Variable Index Dynamic Average,438-439 :comparison of, 440-441Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average,436-438Master Trading Formula, 444McGinley Dynamics, 441for momentum calculation, 444-446Parabolic Time/Price System, 441-444as a process, 446-447Added-event probability, 28Advance-Decline Index, 242-243, 249Advance-decline system, 250Agricultural markets, 598and seasonality, 160-167, 172-174, 182,188and spreads, 305-306, 333trading limits in, 579, 582and volume patterns, 238Alexander's Filter Rule trading system, 546,584-585Amplitude, in cycles, 189, 193, 194Angas, L-L.B., 294Annual cycle, 189Annualized rate of return, 20, 522Annualizing, 20Anon, Louis J., 58Anti-Martingales, 568-569Appel, Gerald, 128Arbitrage, 49-50, 305, 307-316Class B, 310and computers, 419and risk/return, 482ARIMA method, 37, 55-60, 204
Index
Arithmetic mean, 11, 15
Arms, Richard, 240
Arnold, Curtis, 346, 350
Artificial intelligence, 417-418
and fuzzy logic, 488
Artificial neural networks (ANNs), 52. 418,492-498
Art of Contrary Thinking, The (Neill), 347
Aspray, Thomas, 243
Astrology, 189, 350
financial, 33-4, 371-381
Asymmetry, 4, 630
Auction theory, 462
Autoregression, 55, 62-63
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.See ARIMA method
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX).153, 610-611
Average Directional Movement Index Rating(ADXR), 611
Average maximum retracement (AMR),592-593
Average-modified method, 68
Average-off method, 133-134
Average prices, in seasonality calculations, 162164
Averages, in Dow theory, 216
Average velocity, 149
Averaging, 9-16. See also Moving average
Averaging in, 220
BBack-testing. 562Backwardation, 160, 321Band(s), 90-94, 102, 219. See also Channelbands; Confidence bands; Volatility bandin Master Trading Formula, 99and momencum as trend indicator, 130, 132in price distributions, 449-451Bar chart, 3. 5, 134, 214-215, 264application of, 234-236in combination system, 301formations in, 221-228price objectives for, 228-232 -Base price, 472 .Base year, in index, 22688
INDEX
 
Bayes theorem, 28-29 :Bear market, 216, 221, 231Bear market setup, 137, 138Bear market years, 178-179, 188Bear spread, 328Beat the Dealer (Thorp), 5Behavior cycles, 189, 208. See also HumanbehaviorBell curve, 15. See also ProbabilityBenchmark, in testing, 522Bernoulli, Daniel, 587, 626Bernoulli process, 626Bernstein, Jacob, 166, 182Best fit:in ARIMA method, 55in linear regression, 39in phasing, 211Beyond Candlesticks—New Japanese TradingTechniques (Nison), 233Bias, in data, 10in testing, 519, 524, 537for volume, 254and weighted moving average, 68Bierovic, Thomas, 482Binomial distribution, 626-627Black-box methods, 503, 573Blau, William, 80, 144Blau’s double smoothing, 80, 81Blind simulation, 521Bollinger, John, 91Bollinger bands, 91-93, 250, 449-450Bolton, A.H., 353Bolton-Tremblay volume indicator method, 244,248Bottom formations. See Top and bottom forma-tionsBox, G.E.P, 55, 56Box-Jenkins method, 37, 55Breadth, of market, 237, 238, 242, 248Breakaway gap, 225-226Breakaway system, 290Breakout, 94, 95, 220, 221false, 92, 219, 264weekly, 289Breakout systems, 102risk with, 102, 595, 603and vojatility, 482Bressert, Walt, 424Brower, Wiliiam, 482Bullish Consensus, 347-348Bull market, 214, 216, 231, 328in Elliott Wave Theory, 353, 356retracement of, 294Bull market years, 178-179, 183Bull spread, 317, 322, 328Butterfly spread, 319-320Buying power (BP), in A/D Oscillator, 140Buying Pressure, in Demand Oscillator, 243
cCambridge Hook, 153Candlestick charts, 232-234Capital, 590-591conservation of, 102, 587, $95, 615Carrying charges, 160, 161, 320-322, 599and butterfly, 319and intercrop spread, 317-319and interest rates, 312and spreads, 305, 307Carrying charge spread, 322Cash-and-carry, 307Catastrophic risk, 21, 598, 606, 623Causal relationships, in models, 34CHADTP, 250Chaikan, Mark, 242, 249Chain relatives, in