associated with the historically notorioushigh-flying technology sector of the stock market.Futures on the Nasdaq-100 Index began trading in 1996 with a value of $100times the index. Like the S&P 500 index, the value of the Nasdaq-100 zoomedin the late 1990s, pushing initial margins higher and higher. So the CME followed the same pattern as it did with the E-mini S&P 500 and launched electronically traded E-mini Nasdaq-100 index futures in 1999 with a value of $20times the index.Russell 1000 and 2000 Indexes Futures contracts trade actively on twosubsets of the Russell 3000 index developed by the Frank Russell Company as abenchmark for institutional investors. The Russell 1000 tracks the largest 1,000stocks, and is considered a benchmark for large-capitalization stocks among institutions. The Russell 2000 includes the smallest 2,000 stocks of the Russell 3000and is considered a small-capitalization benchmark.The New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) was the first to list Russell 1000 futures in March 1999. Although the CME began trading Russell 2000 futures in 1993,the E-mini version, launched in October 2001, has attracted the most attention. In2005, two more exchanges listed Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 index futures, creating a very competitive situation, particularly among electronically traded contracts. Russell index futures contracts trade on four U.S. exchanges; the CME,CBOE Futures Exchange, NYBOT, and Eurex US.S&P MidCap 400 The S&P MidCap 400 index is a capitalization-weighted index of 400 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange,and Nasdaq Stock Market with medium capitalization. Developed in 1991, the S&PMidCap 400 is considered the benchmark for mid-cap market performance. Nostocks in the MidCap 400 are included in the S&P 500.Futures on the MidCap 400 index began trading at the CME in 1992 with avalue of $500 times the index. Like the other stock indexes, an E-mini electronicversion of the contract was launched by the CME with a value of $100 times the index on January 28, 2002. Volume has not reached the level of the other E-ministock index contracts.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) isan index of 30 large-capitalization, blue-chip stocks traded on the New YorkStock Exchange, accounting for about 20 percent of the market value of all U.S.equities. The index, first published in 1896, is the most widely quoted market indicator in newspapers, radio, television, and electronic media around the world.Movement in the DJIA is sensitive to the news surrounding the 30 companies represented in the index, particularly those with the highest prices, as the Dow is aprice-weighted index.Futures on the Dow began trading at the CBOT in 1997 after heated competition between the Chicago exchanges for the rights to trade futures and options onproducts owned by Dow Jones & Company, which had remained reluctant to allow its name to be used in any kind of futures trading for 15 years after the firststock index futures contracts began trading.The CBOT began trading a mini-sized Dow contract valued at $5 times the average on its electronic platform in April 2002, and although the mini-sized Dowhasn’t matched the volume of the CME E-mini stock index contracts, it has grownquickly in popularity.
Single-Stock FuturesSingle-stock futures (SSFs), also known as security futures, are the newest entryamong equity-based futures contracts. As part of the so-called Johnson-Shad Accord that set the ground rules to let stock index futures begin trading in 1982, futures on individual stocks and narrow-based stock indexes were not allowed totrade unless approved by both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).When Congress passed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act in December 2000, the legislation opened the door for SSFs. As a result, two new exchanges—OneChicago, a joint venture of the Chicago exchanges, and NQLX, awholly owned company of Euronext.liffe—began trading SSFs in November 2002.After two years of slow trading and lack of support from the equities industry,NQLX stopped trading single-stock futures in December 2004.OneChicago lists futures on about 100 individual stocks as well as several sectors and the DIAmonds exchange-traded fund (ETF). All trading is electronic, andall contracts are based on 100-share lots. Volume is still relatively thin in manySSFs, and OneChicago continues to make adjustments to what it lists, so you willneed to check with your broker to see if an SSF contract is available on a stockthat interests you.SSFs provide many of the advantages of futures over stocks, such as greaterleverage and the ability to go short, but not the same tax benefits. Many securitiesfirms have been hesitant about offering and marketing SSFs, so the concept, whileshowing volume that makes it successful compared to other market start-ups, hasnot yet blossomed as much or as fast as advocates anticipate it will.
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International Stock Index FuturesIn today’s electronic world, you can trade stock indexes based on stocks frommany different countries. Firms such as Dow Jones and Morgan Stanley Capital International have developed a number of indexes incorporating the shares of international companies.Futures on the Nikkei 225, Japan’s leading stock index, are traded at the CME.It includes 225 top-tier Japanese companies listed under the first section of theTokyo Stock Exchange. The price-weighted index, introduced in 1949, is computed and distributed by publisher Nihon Keizai Shimbun.In addition, stock index futures and options contracts traded on a numberof foreign exchanges are available to U.S. traders. Some are traded in openoutcry sessions, but most are traded completely electronically. For a list of themajor international stock index markets on which the CFTC has approvedfutures and options trading, visit the CFTC web site at www.cftc.gov/opa/backgrounder/opapart30.htm.
FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTSFinancial instruments can be divided into two main categories: those instrumentsrelated to interest rates and those connected to the value of a country’s currency.Many of the same factors that affect one market also affect the other, as well asthe stock market. These factors include reports on the current status of leadingeconomic indicators, industrial production, employment, and other matters influenced by the growth rate of the economy. In fact, almost anything linked to a nation’s economic health, inflation expectations, monetary policy, political trends,and so forth is likely to have some bearing on these markets.
Interest RatesAs with most supply/demand factors in a free market, a greater demand for moneyis likely to drive up the price of money—that is, the interest rate. Demand dependson factors such as a nation’s economic health, the level of government borrowingto support budgets, and people’s perception of inflation (when they think inflationis rising, they may be more likely to borrow, thinking they can repay loans withcheaper money later). In theory, an interest rate should take into account the realrate of interest, inflation premium, and risk premium.The Federal Reserve Board plays an extremely important role in determiningthe direction of U.S. short-term interest rates, and the meetings of the FederalOpen Market Committee about every six weeks are often market-moving events.The Fed, as the U.S. central bank, controls the supply of money, mainly through direct market trading (buys Treasuries and increases bank reserves to send interest
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rates lower; sells Treasuries and decreases bank reserves to raise interest rates)but also by adjusting reserve requirements and the discount rate at which bankscan borrow money from the Fed.An important element in the interest rate market is the yield curve—that is, apicture that shows the relationship of rates from short-term to long-term. Typically, the curve should be sloping upward as in Figure 8.2 because the longer thelender is exposed to the risks of the marketplace, the higher the rate the lenderwill want for providing the money to the borrower. In contrast, a strict monetarypolicy when the Fed is tightening credit and trying to cool the economy typicallyresults in an inverted yield curve with short-term interest rates higher than longterm rates (see Figure 8.3).U.S. Treasury Bonds T-bonds are long-term debt issues of the U.S. government with maturities of more than 10 years. U.S. economic strength, inflation rate,and monetary policy are the major influences on T-bonds. Demand for money in astrong and/or inflationary economy typically causes interest rates to rise; conversely, demand weakens and rates tend to fall in a weak economy.
FIGURE 8.2 Traditional yield curve. (Source: Copyright 2003 Investopedia, Inc.,www.investopedia.com)
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FIGURE 8.3 Inverted yield curve. (Source: Copyright 2003 Investopedia Inc.,www.investopedia.com)
Government spending (and resulting issuance of debt securities) also influences the level of interest rates. The Federal Reserve Board, which controlsmonetary policy, adjusts the money supply and the fed funds rate (the overnightrate at which banks lend funds to each other, which acts as a floor for shortterm interest rates) as part of an effort to keep economic growth stable withouthigh inflation.Futures on T-bonds are traded both in an open-outcry setting and electronically at the CBOT with the electronic contracts gaining market share quickly.U.S. Treasury Notes T-notes are medium-term debt obligations of the U.S.government, typically issued at the end of each month, with maturities rangingfrom 1 to 10 years. Futures are traded on 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year T-notes. As thegovernment has shortened the maturities of its debt issues, 10-year T-note futureshave taken over the volume leadership from T-bonds, which was the most activefutures contract for many years. T-note futures also trade at the CBOT.U.S. Treasury Bills T-bills are U.S. government debt issues with maturities ofup to one year. T-bills are the most widely issued government debt security and are
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auctioned weekly and monthly. The T-bill interest rate is considered the risk-freerate of return available to investors. Thirteen-week T-bill futures trade at the CME.Eurodollars A Eurodollar is a U.S. dollar on deposit in a foreign bank, mainlyin Europe, commonly used to settle international transactions. Eurodollar deposits are not guaranteed by any government but rather are the obligation of thebank holding them. Eurodollar futures, which track the interest rate on 90-dayEurodollar deposits, are the most widely traded financial futures instrument inthe world.Futures on Eurodollars are traded on the floor and electronically at the CME,also with the electronic venue making quick inroads into trading dominance.
CurrenciesWhen you trade currencies or foreign exchange (forex or FX), everything is relative. You are not trading just one currency such as the U.S. dollar but a currencypair based on the relationship of one currency to another currency. Currency futures are traded at the CME; cash forex trading occurs at a number of firms (seeChapter 10).A number of factors go into determining the strength or weakness of currencies vis-à-vis each other, but it usually comes down to comparing one nation’seconomy to another’s. Generally, expanding economies have strong currencieswhile recessionary economies have weak currencies. Statistics such as gross domestic production (GDP) comparing the economic growth rate of two nations influence a currency’s value, as does the trade balance between countries. Thecurrent account balance and money flows from one country to another reflect acurrency’s supply and demand, so traders are always watching each country’strade balance to see changes in surpluses or deficits.A strong currency may mean a country’s exports become more expensive andresult in fewer sales, cutting into corporate profits and weakening an economy. Insome cases, the situation may become serious enough that a nation’s leaders decide intervention in the currency markets is necessary—that is, a country buys itsown currency when weak and sells its currency when it is strong to keep its currency in line with a value that is perceived to be acceptable.A country’s fiscal policies are important in determining a currency’s value. Anexpansive fiscal policy (total government debt relatively high versus money supply) that stimulates both growth and inflation will likely lead to a rise in interestrates. Relative real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate differentials between twocountries will affect currencies because capital tends to move toward the highestreal rate of return, thus increasing the demand for the currency of the higher-ratenation. However, if interest rates are high because of inflation expectations orother problems, then demand for that currency will weaken.Political leadership and events such as elections can also make a difference toa currency because they may influence the direction of the economy, monetary
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policy, trade policy, and capital flows. Generally, the U.S. dollar has been considered to be a safe haven during times of international crisis.In addition to these overriding factors that affect all currency relationships,here are some factors that may have more of an impact on specific currencies.Australian Dollar The Australian dollar market is particularly sensitive tocommodity prices because Australia exports wheat, wool, and gold. Strong commodity prices will tend to boost the A-dollar as long as they don’t get too high todiscourage buyers and reduce export demand. What happens to Asian economiesis particularly important to the A-dollar, as 40 percent of Australia’s exports go toAsia. Central bank policies on gold reserves can affect not only gold prices butalso the A-dollar.British Pound The United Kingdom has not adopted the euro as its currencyyet, but the British pound often takes its lead from what happens to the EuropeanUnion. However, it has some unique characteristics that cause it to chart its owncourse. For example, the European Union economies and the euro are sensitive tooil prices as an importer whereas the United Kingdom and the pound are sensitiveto oil prices as an exporter from the North Sea oil field.Canadian Dollar Like the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar is especially sensitive to developments in commodity prices because of the naturalresources that it exports. It is especially sensitive to anything that happens tothe U.S. economy because 60 percent of Canada’s exports go to the UnitedStates. The saying “When the United States sneezes, Canada catches cold”might apply here.Euro The European Union is affected by many of the same things domesticallythat affect the United States, but the additional challenge is that it brings together a number of different governments and economies with potentially different agendas and not always heading in the same direction. Strength or weaknessin the German economy may not be reflected in the Italian economy in the sameway, for example, and analysts have a number of diverse economic factors toconsider to put together a composite outlook for the euro. The addition of 10former Eastern bloc nations on May 1, 2004, does not make the task of trying toget one reading on multiple economies and political policies any easier. Theemergence of an apparently strong European Central Bank does provide a central focus for interest rate decisions that may affect the euro’s relationship toother currencies.Japanese Yen Trade issues are a major factor in Japan, which typically has runa huge trade surplus with the rest of the world. A rising trend in the current account surplus has produced a natural rising trend in the value of the yen. The challenge for the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan is how to keep the yen’s
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value at a level that will maintain the nation’s competitive edge in export markets.With 40 percent of its exports going to Asian markets, the health of those marketsis important for Japan’s economy, as the Asian currency crisis of 1998 emphasized.On the other side of the trade picture, Japan is a major oil importer, making theyen sensitive to oil price developments. Japan’s banking system also has struggledsince the excesses of the early 1990s, and any bank failures could have a damagingeffect on the economy and the value of the yen.Swiss Franc Switzerland has a long history as an independent nation and, trueto form, is not a part of the European single-currency plan. Helped by the country’s secretive banking policies and a reputation for maintaining an interest ingold, the Swiss franc continues to be regarded as a safe-haven currency in times ofuncertainty or currency crisis. With this status, the value of the Swiss franc depends more on perception and less on economic fundamentals than most othercurrencies. Traditionally, the Swiss franc’s closest relationship was with thedeutsche mark because about 60 percent of Swiss trade is with Germany, and thishas carried over to the euro.
COMMODITIESUntil the 1970s, futures markets and commodities were synonymous because themarkets were all about those physical products that you could touch, taste, grow,mine, consume, or deliver. Although the types of markets traded as futures havechanged considerably since then, physical commodities still are a major component of the futures and options industry and are still the markets with which manytraders are most familiar.Like other segments of the futures industry, commodities can be brokendown into several categories: metals, energy, grains, livestock, and food andfiber. These are not paper assets. In general, they are all produced and they areall consumed at a price that is discovered in a central marketplace based on theforces of supply and demand. Except for metals and energy, which are takenfrom reserves in the ground, they are renewable resources. Many of these markets exhibit seasonal price patterns because of climate, and weather often playsa major role. Aside from those generalities, each market has unique factors thataffect its pricing.
MetalsMetals have a unique status among commodities in that all of the metals tradedin futures markets are produced and consumed like other commodities, butprices tend to be dictated by influences other than supply and demand. Themetals all have industrial uses, but views about the health of the economy or
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the metal’s role as a storehouse of value are more likely to set the tone ofprices. Metals such as gold or silver are not really consumed like grains or livestock, for the most part, but are converted into some other form and can be recovered if desired.Copper Copper is one of the world’s major industrial metals, ranking third behind iron and aluminum in use. Nearly half of copper demand is for electrical purposes, including telecommunications; it also is used in construction and industrialmachinery manufacturing. Chile is the world’s largest producer, accounting forabout 25 percent of the world’s output. The United States is the world’s secondlargest producer at 18 percent. As an alloy component, copper combines with tinto produce bronze and with zinc to produce brass.With electrical wiring and construction accounting for so much of its use,the price of copper is sensitive to statistics related to economic growth, particularly reports such as housing starts. China has also become a large importerin recent years, and economic statistics there are important for copper pricesas well.Gold Gold is a precious metal used worldwide not only as a store of monetaryvalue (both coins and bars) but also in jewelry, electronics, and dentistry. The yellow metal has long been considered a hedge against economic or political uncertainties, and many central banks back their currency with gold reserves. SouthAfrica not only is the world’s largest gold producer but also holds about half of theworld’s estimated gold reserves. The United States is the world’s second largestproducer, with the most output coming from Nevada.The physical supply of gold takes a backseat to the many demand factors thatinfluence gold prices. Gold prices are most sensitive to political and economic factors that may cause central banks and individuals to change the amount of goldthey hold as an investment or safety asset.Platinum Platinum is the principal metal of the platinum group of metals,which also includes palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, osmium, and iridium. As anindustrial metal, nearly half of the world’s consumption of platinum is for catalysts. Automotive catalytic converters are the largest source of demand; other catalytic uses are in the chemical and petroleum refining industries. Annual platinumproduction runs less than 10 percent of gold production, with nearly 75 percent ofthe world’s supplies concentrated in South Africa.Even though platinum is largely used for industrial purposes, prices can movein sympathy with the gold and silver markets. Political and labor activities inSouth Africa are always of prime concern to the platinum market.Palladium Palladium is the second largest metal of the platinum group of metals; it also is produced as a by-product of nickel production. Russia and South
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Africa account for about 90 percent of world production. Palladium is used in electronic applications, for dental alloys, automotive catalysts, and jewelry.Economic and political conditions in Russia, the largest producer, are ofprime importance because of their effect on mine production, inventory levels,and shipment policies.Silver Silver, sometimes called “poor man’s gold,” is primarily used in industry,photography, jewelry, and silverware. Coinage uses usually account for less than 5percent of annual consumption. Mexico and Peru are the world’s largest producers. The United States ranks first in the recovery of silver from secondary supplies,such as scrap and old coinage.Silver prices react to many influences, including warehouse stocks, inflationfears, price of gold, and economic health as it affects industrial demand.
EnergyAlthough futures on most commodities existed for a number of years prior tothe introduction of financial and equity-based futures, futures on energy did notbegin trading until 1978 when the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)launched trading in heating oil. Crude oil futures followed in 1983. The energymarket today has become one of the most important gauges of world economicand political developments.The value of the U.S. dollar is significant because much of the world’s crudeoil is priced in dollars. U.S. energy prices are also quite sensitive to statistical reports detailing production, imports, and especially stocks released weekly by theAmerican Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Department of Energy.Crude Oil Crude oil is the “black gold” that comes from the depths of the earthas a raw material to be refined into heating oil, gasoline, and other petroleumproducts. Crude oil can be classified as “light, sweet” or “sour.” NYMEX offers futures on both types, but the light, sweet contract is considered to be the international pricing benchmark. The size of the NYMEX contract is 1,000 barrels, butNYMEX also offers a half-sized miNY version of 500 barrels traded electronicallyon Globex and cleared by NYMEX.The world’s three largest crude oil producers are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and theUnited States (North Sea oil production is about the same as U.S. output but issplit up among several nations). The world’s supply of crude oil depends largely onthe politics surrounding the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC), which accounts for a little over 40 percent of world production. OPECmembers include Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar,Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.Demand for crude oil filters up from the demand for its two main products,heating oil and gasoline. Thus, winter weather conditions (particularly in Northeast
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United States) can influence heating oil demand. Driving patterns, vehicle types,and a country’s economic health affect gasoline demand. The profitability of refining products also can influence crude oil prices.Gasoline Unleaded gasoline is the refined petroleum product used to fuel carsand trucks and accounts for almost half of U.S. crude oil consumption. About halfof the gasoline produced in the United States originates on the Gulf Coast. NewYork Harbor handles both imported and domestic supplies, and NYMEX lists futures and options on New York Harbor unleaded gasoline.In addition to the worldwide factors that influence the supply of crude oil, thegasoline market pays particular attention to gasoline inventories, refinery margins,and refinery maintenance schedules. (The market can be edgy during hurricaneseason if the storms threaten Gulf Coast production.) Gasoline demand dependson the weather, speed limits, retail pump prices, trends in vehicle fuel efficiency,and economic conditions. Demand typically picks up going into and during thesummer when travel increases.Heating Oil Heating oil, also known as No. 2 fuel oil, is used to heat homes andbusinesses, primarily in the Northeast United States. It is the second largest refined product, accounting for about 25 percent of the crude oil barrel yield.Winter weather conditions in the Northeast United States are a prime demandfactor. Demand typically picks up as distributors begin to stock heating oil supplies in late summer and fall and can spike sharply higher during frigid spells inthe winter. On the supply side, refinery margins and operating schedules play arole, as does the level of distillate inventories.Natural Gas Natural gas is a combustible fuel found in the earth’s crust and isused for industrial purposes as well as to generate electricity, heat homes, and fuelcooking stoves. Natural gas accounts for about 25 percent of U.S. energy consumption. Louisiana and Texas are the two largest producing states.Weather conditions in the main usage areas—U.S. Midwest (heating) and U.S.Southwest (cooling)—are among the main demand factors for natural gas. The potential for hurricanes disrupting production in the Gulf of Mexico also is a priceconsideration. Natural gas cannot be imported as easily as crude oil, so pipelinecapacity and the number of domestic working rigs drilling for natural gas affectU.S. supplies as well.Environmental policies, particularly concerning air pollution standards, are abackground factor for natural gas.
Grains and SoybeansGrains and soybeans are essential to food and feed supplies, and prices are especially sensitive to weather conditions in growing areas at key times during thecrop’s development and to economic conditions that affect demand. Monthly re-
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ports issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture summarize these key variablesfor both U.S. and world crops:• Ending stocks or carryover from the previous season.• Production for the current season.• Domestic usage expectations.• Potential export shipments.• Projected ending stocks or carryover at the end of this season.All crop production figures are estimates or projections but are based on surveys, actual measurements, technology such as satellite images, and other meansto provide assessments that attempt to be as accurate as possible. The endingstocks-to-usage ratio is a key figure reflecting overall supply/demand pressuresthat influence prices (see Table 8.3).Corn Corn is the world’s foremost feed grain and is used in rations for cattle,hogs, and poultry. It also has food and industrial uses, such as high-fructose cornsyrup used to sweeten carbonated beverages and ethanol to fuel vehicles. Most ofthe world’s corn is grown in the United States, primarily in the Midwest. Other producers include China, France, Argentina, and South Africa.The area planted to corn and weather during the growing season are the twomain factors that determine supply each year. The corn market is particularly sensitive to weather conditions when the plant pollinates, typically during July andearly August in the United States, the most critical period for determining yield(bushels per acre) and the crop’s overall production size.Demand considerations include not only the number of animals in the UnitedStates for determining potential U.S. feed demand but also the livestock population around the world, which influences U.S. export demand. Food and industrialuses for this high-carbohydrate crop also have grown sharply around the world.Consumption of corn for fuel ethanol used as a gasoline volume extender, octanebooster, and oxygenate has increased dramatically in recent years to account fornearly 10 percent of annual U.S. corn production. Thus, in addition to food andlivestock feed usage, corn futures traders now need to watch U.S. energy legislation closely as well as developments in the production of ethanol from othersources to determine the impact of this growing usage category on corn demandand prices.Soybeans Soybeans are an oilseed crop grown mainly for processing intosoybean meal for animal feed rations and soybean oil for food purposes. In theUnited States, soybeans are grown in roughly the same areas as corn. Production in South America has become increasingly important to the world soybeanmarket, exceeding the size of the U.S. crop in recent years. Combined outputfrom Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay has become the market’s second harvest,
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TABLE 8.3 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure)1
Item
2002–2003
Soybeans:AreaPlantedHarvested
74.072.5
Yield per harvested acre
38.0
Beginning stocksProductionImportsSupply, totalCrushingsExportsSeedResidualUse, totalEnding stocksAverage farm price ($/bushel)2
2082,75652,9691,6151,04489412,7911785.53
Soybean Oil:Beginning stocksProductionImportsSupply, totalDomesticExportsUse, totalEnding stocksAverage price (¢/lb)2Soybean Meal:Beginning stocksProductionImportsSupply, totalDomesticExportsUse, totalEnding stocksAverage price ($/s.t.)2
2003–2004Est.
2004–2005 ProjectionsOctober
November
Million Acres73.475.172.574.0Bushels33.942.0Million Bushels1781122,4543,107662,6383,2251,5301,6458851,025928919612,5252,8201124057.344.70–5.50
75.174.042.61123,15063,2691,6451,01089642,8084604.55–5.35
Million Pounds2,35818,4384620,84317,0892,26319,3521,49122.04
1,49117,07730718,87516,88193717,8181,05729.97
1,06118,42510519,59117,2501,15018,4001