paraphrase a Wall Streetmaxim: the advance-decline line tells us if the “troops” arekeeping up with the “generals.” As long as the AD line isadvancing with the Dow Industrials, for example, the breadthor health of the market is good. The danger appears when theAD line begins to diverge from the Dow. In other words, whenyou have a situation where the Dow Industrials are hitting newhighs while the broader market (measured by the AD line) isn’tfollowing, technicians begin to worry about “bad marketbreadth” or an AD divergence. Historically, the AD line peaksout well ahead of the market averages, which is why it’swatched so closely.
DAILY VERSUS WEEKLY AD LINES
The daily AD line, which we have described herein, is better usedfor short to intermediate comparisons with the major stock aver-ages. It is less useful for comparisons going back several years. Aweekly advance-decline line measures the number of advancingversus declining stocks for the entire week. Those figures are pub-lished in Barron’s each weekend. A weekly advance-decline line isconsidered more useful for trend comparisons spanning severalyears. While a negative divergence in the daily AD line may warnof short to intermediate problems in the market, it’s necessary toalso show a similar divergence in the weekly AD line to confirmthat a more serious problem is developing.
VARIATIONS IN AD LINE
Since the number of stocks traded on the NYSE has grown overthe years, some market analysts believe the method of subtract-438 Chapter 18
ing the number of declining issues from the number of advanc-ing issues gives greater weight to the more recent data. To com-bat that problem, many technicians prefer to use anadvance/decline ratio which divides the number of advancingissues by the number of declining issues. Some also believe thatthere’s value in including the number of unchanged issues in thecalculation. Whichever way the AD line is calculated, its use isalways the same—that is, to measure the direction of the broad-er market and to ensure it’s moving in the same direction as themore narrowly constructed, but popular market averages.Advance decline lines can also be constructed for the AmericanStock Exchange and the Nasdaq Market. Market technicians liketo construct overbought/oversold oscillators on the AD lines tohelp measure short to intermediate term market extremes in thebreadth figures themselves. One of the better known examples isthe McClellan Oscillator.
McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR
Developed by Sherman McClellan, this oscillator is construct-ed by taking the difference between two exponential movingaverages of the daily NYSE advance-decline figures. TheMcClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19 day (10%trend) and the 39 day (5% trend) exponential moving averagesof the daily net advance decline figures. The oscillator fluctu-ates around a zero line with its upper and lower extremes rang-ing from +100 and -100. A McClellan Oscillator reading above+100 is a signal of an overbought stock market. A readingbelow -100 is considered an oversold stock market. Crossingsabove and below the zero line are also interpreted as short tointermediate term buying and selling signals respectively. (SeeFigure 18.2.)Stock Market Indicators 439
 
McClellan Oscillator
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 18.2 | The McClellan oscillator shown as a histogram. Crossingsabove the zero line are positive signals. Readings above +100 are overbought,while readings below -100 are oversold. Notice the extreme oversold readingduring October of 1997.
McCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX
The Summation Index is simply a longer range version of theMcClellan Oscillator. The McClellan Summation Index is a cumu-lative sum of each day’s positive or negative readings in theMcClellan Oscillator. Whereas the McClellan Oscillator is used forshort to intermediate trading purposes, the Summation Indexprovides a longer range view of market breadth and is used to spotmajor market turning points. (See Figure 18.3.)440 Chapter 18
 
I i :McClellan Summation index -
 
SRESUSSRRIEERGHEgebsEsheus aussesus SEsESEREIEETIUREL
 
 
 
 
Figure 18.3. The McClellan Summation Index is simply a longer rangeversion of the McClellan Oscillator. The Summation Index is used for majortrend analysis. Crossings below zero are negative. The February 1998 signalwas positive.
NEW HIGHS VERSUS NEW LOWS
In addition to the number of advancing and declining stocks, thefinancial press also publishes the number of stocks hitting new 52week highs or new 52 week lows. Here again, these figures areavailable on a daily and weekly basis. There are two ways to showthese figures. One way is to plot the two lines separately. Since thedaily values can sometimes be erratic, moving averages (usually 10days) are plotted to present a smoother picture of the two lines.(See Figure 18.4.) In a strong market, the number of new highsshould be much greater than the number of new lows. When thenumber of new highs start to decline, or the number of new lowsstart to expand, a caution signal is given. A negative market signalis activated when the moving average of new lows crosses aboveStock Market Indicators 441
 
New Highs (10 Day Average)
New Lows (10 Day Average)
 
 
 
 
Ih” Work" "Way" Lune" Lily" " Taunust” Ken" “Ictober” Nov’ Iecambarliese”” February March
 
Figure 18.4 A 10 day average of new highs versus a 10 day average ofnew lows. A healthy market should see more stocks hitting new highs thannew lows. During October 1997, the two lines almost crossed before reassert-ing their bullish alignment.
the moving average of new highs. It can also be shown that when-ever the new highs reach an extreme, the market has a toppingtendency. Similarly, whenever new lows reach an extreme, themarket is near a bottom. Another way to use the new highs versusnew lows numbers is to plot the difference between the two lines.
NEW HIGH-NEW LOW INDEX
The advantage of a New High-New Low index is that it can bedirectly compared to one of the major market averages. In thatway, the high-low line can be used just like an advance-declineline. (See Figure 18.5.) The trend of the high-low line can be chart-442 Chapter 18
 
T 7i | : I4 t : 1New York Composite index |
\
i;i|ii|ii1
|
i1i|i\11|i||t|
;|i :: i! tj :i 1
SaRRUSHSEEE ETE EeETHeESSSESEZORSERY
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 18.5 The New High-New Low Index versus the NYSE CompositeIndex. This line plots the difference between the number of stocks hitting newhighs and new lows. A rising line is positive. Notice the sharp drop duringOctober of 1997.
ed and it can be used to spot market divergences. A new high inthe Dow, for example, that is not matched by a corresponding newhigh in the high-low line could be a sign of weakness in the broad-er market. Trendline and moving-average analysis can be appliedto the line itself. But its major value is in either confirming ordiverging from the major stock trends and giving early warning ofpotential trend changes in the overall market. Dr. Alexander Elderdescribes the New High-New Low index as “probably the best lead-ing indicator of the stock market” Trading for a Living, (Wiley).Elder suggests plotting the indicator as a histogram with ahorizontal reference point at its zero line, making divergences eas-ier to spot. He points out that crossings above and below the zeroline also reflect bullish and bearish shifts in market psychology.Stock Market Indicators 443
UPSIDE VERSUS DOWNSIDEVOLUME
This is the third and final piece of data that is utilized to mea-sure the breadth of the market. The New York Stock Exchangealso provides the level of volume in both the advancing anddeclining issues. That data is also available the next day in thefinancial press. It is then possible to compare the upside vol-ume versus the downside volume to measure which is domi-nant at any given time. (See Figure 18.6.) The upside volumeand downside volume can be shown as two separate lines (justas we did with the new highs and new lows figures) or the dif-ference can be shown as a single line. Either way, the interpre-tation is always the same. When the upside volume is domi-
 
af
Up Volume (10 Day Average)
4000)‘300038003700)3800)3600)3400)3300)3200)3100‘30002900)2600270026002500)2400)2300)22002100)2000
Down Volume (10 Day Average)
BBEs
 
 
 
 
babar” "May "Dune" "Duy" Taugust” Ison” “Katober’ Nov" becemberliebe
Figure 18.6 A 10 day average of stock market upside volume (dark line)versus downside volume. A strong market should have more upside thandownside volume.444 Chapter 18
nant, the market is strong. When downside volume is greater,the market is weak. It’s possible to combine the number ofadvancing and declining issues with advancing and decliningvolume. That’s what Richard Arms did in the creation of theArms Index.
THE ARMS INDEX
The Arms Index, named after its creator Richard Arms, is a ratioof a ratio. The numerator is the ratio of the number of advancingissues divided by the number of declining issues. The denomina-tor is the advancing volume divided by declining volume. Thepurpose of the Arms Index is to gauge whether there’s more vol-ume in rising or falling stocks. A reading below 1.0 indicatesmore volume in rising stocks and is positive. A reading above 1.0reflects more volume in declining issues and is negative. On anintraday basis, a very high Arms Index reading is positive, whilea very low reading is negative. The Arms Index, therefore, is acontrary indicator that trends in the opposite direction of themarket. It can be used for intraday trading by tracking its direc-tion and for spotting signs of short term market extremes. (SeeFigure 18.7.)
TRIN VERSUS TICK
The Arms Index (TRIN) can be used in conjunction with the TICKindicator for intraday trading. TICK measures the differencebetween the number of stocks trading on an uptick versus thenumber trading on a downtick. The TICK is a minute-by-minuteversion of the daily advance-decline line and is used for the samepurpose. When combining the two during the day, a rising TICKindicator and a falling Arms Index (TRIN) are positive, while afalling TICK indicator and a rising Arms Index (TRIN) are nega-tive. The Arms Index, however, can also be used for longer rangeanalysis.Stock Market Indicators 445
 
288
New York Composite Index
3
420]450]440]430)420]00400:300390370350]350}4033022
Ts . AN Lf MO sh, Ih i. AMI |an Wry TTA ren t" NH \ N My "i
 
 
Ty
 
 
Figure 18.7 The Arms Index (also called TRIN) trends in the oppositedirection of the market. Exceptionally high spikes usually signal market bot-toms. A 10-day moving average of the Arms Index is a popular way to viewthis contrary indicator.
SMOOTHING THE ARMS INDEX
While the Arms Index is quoted throughout the trading day andhas some short term forecasting value, most traders use a 10 daymoving average of its values. According to Arms himself, a 10 dayaverage of the Arms Index above 1.20 is considered oversold,while a 10 day Arms value below .70 is overbought, althoughthose numbers may shift depending on the overall trend of themarket. Arms expresses a preference for Fibonacci numbers aswell. He suggests using a 21 day Arms Index in addition to the 10day version. He also utilizes 21 day and 55 day moving-averagecrossovers of the Arms Index to generate good intermediate term446 Chapter 18
trades. For more in-depth treatment, read The Arms Index (TRIN)by Richard W. Arms, Jr.
OPEN ARMS
In calculating the 10 day Arms Index, each day’s closing value isdetermined using the four inputs and that final value is smoothedwith a 10 day moving average. In the “Open” version of the ArmsIndex, each of the four components in the formula is averagedseparately over a period of 10 days. The Open Arms Index is thencalculated from those four different averages. Many analysts pre-fer the Open Arms version to the original version. Different mov-ing average lengths, like 21 and 55 days, can also be applied to theOpen Arms version. (See Figure 18.8.)
 
New York Composite Index.
88888358828
Sesggsegs
Open Arms Index - 10 day
 
 
 
Weg" Tine sy Panik Bes Eaioe Was isa ie ies ea Way ee a Ria
 
Figure 18.8 The 10 day Open Arms Index gives a much smoother look tothis indicator, but still trends in the opposite direction of the market. A cross-ing of its 10-day moving average (darker line) often signals turning points.Stock Market indicators 447
EQUIVOLUME CHARTING
Although Arms is best known for creating the Arms Index, he hasalso pioneered other ways of combining price and volume analy-sis. In doing so, he created an entirely new form of charting calledEquivolume. In the traditional bar chart, the day’s trading range isshown on the price bar with the volume bar plotted at the bottomof the chart. Since technical analysts combine price and volumeanalysis, they have to look at both parts of the chart at the sametime. On the Equivolume chart, each price bar is shown as a rec-tangle. The height of the rectangle measures the day’s tradingrange. The width of the rectangle is determined by that day’s vol-ume. Heavier volume days produce a wider rectangle. Lighter vol-ume days are reflected in a narrower rectangle. (See Figure 18.9.)
 
33
Equivotume Chart (intel)
tha
ul
BREISSAINALATISTSIRGLSRISSSLSBERSS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 18.9 | Equivolume charts combine price and volume. The width ofeach rectangle (daily bar) is determined by the volume. Wider rectanglesshow heavier volume. The rectangles started to widen during Intel’s last sell-off—a negative sign.448 Chapter 18
 
As a rule, a bullish price breakout should always be accom-panied by a burst of trading activity. On an Equivolume chart,therefore, a bullish price breakout should be accompanied by anoticeably wider rectangle. Equivolume charting combines priceand volume analysis into one chart and makes for much easiercomparisons between price and volume. In an uptrend, for exam-ple, up days should see wider rectangles while down days shouldsee narrower rectangles. Equivolume charting can be applied tomarket averages as well as individual stocks and can be plotted forboth daily and weekly charts. For more information, consultVolume Cycles in the Stock Market by Richard Arms (Dow Jones-Irwin, 1983).
CANDLEPOWER
In Chapter 12, Greg Morris explained candlestick charting. In a1990 article published in Technical Analysis of Stocks andCommodities magazine entitled “East Meets West: CandlePowerCharting,” Morris proposed combining candlestick charts withArms’ Equivolume charting method. Morris’ version shows thecandlestick chart in an Equivolume format. In other words, thewidth of the candlestick is determined by the volume. The greaterthe volume, the wider the candlestick. Morris called the combi-nation CandlePower charting. Quoting from the article: “. . . theCandlePower chart offers similar if not better information thanEquivolume or candlestick charting and is as visually appealing aseither of them.” Morris’ CandlePower technique is available onMetastock charting software (published by Equis International,3950 S. 700 East, Suite 100, Salt Lake City, UT 84107 [800] 882-3040, www.equis.com). However its name has been changed toCandlevolume. (See Figure 18.10.)Stock Market Indicators 449
 
CandlePower Chart (Intel)
89)a798,J94)93]a2a120808887]J85)848a28180)7378778:757473)72mn70)c8878885
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 18.10 A CandlePower chart (also called Candlevolume) combinesequivolume and candlesticks. The width of each candle (daily bar) is deter-mined by volume.
COMPARING MARKET AVERAGES
At the start of the chapter, we mentioned that another way togauge market breadth was to compare the different market aver-ages themselves. We're talking here primarily about the DowIndustrials, the S&P 500, the New York Stock Exchange Index, theNasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000. Each measures a slight-ly different portion of the market. The Dow and the S&P 500 cap-ture the trends of a relatively small number of large capitalizationstocks. The NYSE Composite Index includes all stocks traded onthe New York Stock Exchange, and gives a slightly broader per-spective. Breakouts in the Dow Industrials should, as a rule, beconfirmed by similar breakouts in both the S&P 500 and the NYSEComposite Index if the breakout is to have staying power.450 Chapter 18
 
Most important divergences involve the Nasdaq and theRussell 2000. The Nasdaq Composite has the largest number ofstocks (5000). However, since the Nasdaq is a capitalization-weighted index, it is usually dominated by the one hundredlargest technology stocks like Intel and Microsoft. Because of that,the Nasdaq is more often a measure of the direction of the tech-nology sector. The Russell 2000 is a truer measure of the smallerstock universe. Both indexes, however, should be trendingupward along with the Dow and the S&P 500 if the trend of themarket is truly healthy.
Relative strength (RS) analysis plays a useful role here. Aratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 tells us whether the technolo-gy stocks are leading or lagging. It’s usually better for the marketif they’re leading and the ratio line is rising. (See Figure 18.11.) A
Nasdaq / S&P 500 Ratio
S&P 500is leading
 
 
 
 
Figure 18.11 The Nasdag/S&P 500 ratio tells us whether technologystocks are leading or lagging the market. It’s usually better for the marketwhen the ratio line is rising.Stock Market Indicators 451
 
comparison of the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 tells us whetherthe “troops” are following the “generals.” When the small stocksare showing poor relative strength, or are lagging too far behindthe large stocks, that’s often a warning that market breadth isweakening. (See Figure 18.12.)
 
Dow Industrials
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 18.12 An overlay comparison of the small cap Russell 2000 andthe large cap Dow. It’s usually better when both lines are rising together.452 Chapter 18
CONCLUSION
Another example of comparing two market averages for signs ofconfirmation or divergence involves the Dow Theory. In Chapter2, we discussed the importance of the relationship between theDow Industrials and the Dow Transports. A Dow Theory buy sig-nal is present when both averages hit new highs. When onediverges from the other, a caution signal is given. It can be seenthen that the study of market breadth, and the related issues ofconfirmation and divergence, can take many forms. The generalrule to follow is that the greater the number of stock market aver-ages that are trending in the same direction, the greater thechances are for that trend continuing. In addition, be sure tocheck the advance-decline line, the new highs-new lows line, andthe upside-downside volume lines to make sure that they’re alsotrending in the same direction. 
As this book has demonstrated, technical analysis is a blend ofmany approaches. Each approach adds something to the analyst’sknowledge of the market. Technical analysis is much like puttingtogether a giant jigsaw puzzle. Each technical tool holds a piece ofthe puzzle. My approach to market analysis is to combine as manytechniques as possible. Each works better in certain market situa-tions. The key is knowing which tools to emphasize in the currentsituation. That comes with knowledge and experience.
All of these approaches overlap to some extent and com-plement one another. The day the user sees these interrelation-ships, and is able to view technical analysis as the sum of its parts,is the day that person deserves the title of technical analyst. Thefollowing checklist is provided to help the user touch all thebases, at least in the early going. Later on, the checklist becomessecond nature. The checklist is not all-inclusive, but does havemost of the more important factors to keep in mind. Sound mar-
433454
Chapter 19
ket analysis seldom consists of doing the obvious. The technicianis constantly seeking clues to future market movement. The finalclue that leans the trader in one direction or the other is oftensome minor factor that has gone largely unnoticed by others. Themore factors the analyst considers, the better the chances of find-ing that right clue.
TECHNICAL CHECKLIST
1.. What is the direction of the various market sectors?
. What are the weekly and monthly charts showing?
. Are the major, intermediate, and minor trends up, down,
Bm WD
What is the direction of the overall market?
or sideways?
. Where are the important support and resistance levels?. Where are the important trendlines or channels?
. Are volume and open interest confirming the price action?. Where are the 33%, 50%, and 66% retracements?
. Are there any price gaps and what type are they?
. Are there any major reversal patterns visible?
. Are there any continuation patterns visible?
. What are the price objectives from those patterns?
. Which way are the moving averages pointing?
. Are the oscillators overbought or oversold?
. Are any divergences apparent on the oscillators?
. Are contrary opinion numbers showing any extremes?. What is the Elliot Wave pattern showing?
. Are there any obvious 3 or 5 wave patterns?
. What about Fibonacci retracements or projections?
. Are there any cycle tops or bottoms due?
. Is the market showing right or left translation?Pulling It All Together—A Checklist 455
22. Which way is the computer trend moving: up, down, orsideways?23. What are the point and figure charts or candlesticks showing?
After you've arrived at a bullish or bearish conclusion, askyourself the following questions.
1. Which way will this market trend over the next severalmonths?
. Am I going to buy or sell this market?
. How many units will I trade?
. How much am I prepared to risk if I’m wrong?. What is my profit objective?
. Where will I enter the market?
. What type of order will I use?
. Where will I place my protective stop?
ON AO wWN
Going through the checklist won’t guarantee the rightconclusions. It’s only meant to help you ask the right ques-tions. Asking the right questions is the surest way of finding theright answers. The keys to successful trading are knowledge, dis-cipline, and patience. Assuming that you have the knowledge,the best way to achieve discipline and patience is doing yourhomework and having a plan of action. The final step is puttingthat plan of action to work. Even that won’t guarantee success,but it will greatly increase the odds of winning in the financialmarkets.
HOW TO COORDINATETECHNICAL ANDFUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Despite the fact that technicians and fundamentalists are often atodds with one another, there are ways they can work together for456 Chapter 19
mutual benefit. Market analysis can be approached from eitherdirection. While I believe that technical factors do lead the knownfundamentals, I also believe that any important market movemust be caused by underlying fundamental factors. Therefore, itsimply makes sense for a technician to have some awareness ofthe fundamental condition of a market. If nothing else, the tech-nician can inquire from his or her fundamental counterpart as towhat would have to happen fundamentally to justify a significantmarket move identified on a price chart. In addition, seeing howthe market reacts to fundamental news can be used as an excel-lent technical indication.
The fundamental analyst can use technical factors to con-firm an analysis or as an alert that something important may behappening. The fundamentalist can consult a price chart or use acomputer trend-following system as a filter to prevent him or herfrom assuming a position opposite an existing trend. Someunusual action on a price chart can act as an alert for the funda-mental analyst and cause him or her to examine the fundamentalsituation a bit closer. During my years in the technical analysisdepartment of a major brokerage firm, I often approached ourfundamental department to discuss some market move thatseemed imminent on the price charts. I often received responseslike “that can never happen” or “no way.” Very often, that sameperson was scrambling a couple of weeks later to find fundamen-tal reasons to explain a sudden and “unexpected” market move.There’s obviously room for much more coordination and cooper-ation in this area.
CHARTERED MARKETTECHNICIAN (CMT)
A lot of people use technical analysis and offer opinions on thetechnical condition of the various markets. But are they reallyqualified to do so? How would you know? After all, you wouldn’tgo to a doctor who didn’t have a medical degree on the wall. NorPulling It All Together—A Checklist 457
 
would you consult a lawyer who hadn’t passed the bar exam. Youraccountant is undoubtedly a CTA. If you asked a security analystfor an assessment on a common stock, you would certainly makesure that he or she was a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). Whywouldn't you take the same precautions with a technical analyst?
The Market Technicians Association (MTA) resolved thisquestion by instituting a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) pro-gram. The CMT program is a three step examination process thatqualifies the analyst to carry the CMT letters after his or her name.Most professional technical analysts have gone through the pro-gram. The next time someone offers you his or her technical opin-ion, ask to see the CMT.
MARKET TECHNICIANSASSOCIATION (MTA)
The Market Technicians Association (MTA) is the oldest and bestknown technical society in the world. It was founded in 1972 toencourage the exchange of technical ideas, educate the public andthe investment community, and establish a code of ethics and pro-fessional standards among technical analysts. (On March 11, 1998the MTA celebrated the 25th birthday of its incorporation. Theevent was highlighted by a special presentation at the New Yorkmonthly meeting by three of the organization’s founding mem-bers—Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley.) MTAmembership includes full-time technical analysts and other inter-ested parties (called affiliates). Monthly meetings are held in NewYork (Market Technicians Association, Inc., One World TradeCenter, Suite 4447, New York, NY 10048 (212) 912-0995, e-mail:shelleymta@aol.com), and an annual seminar is held each May atvarious locations around the country. Members have access to theMTA library and a computer bulletin board. A monthly newsletterand a periodic MTA Journal are published. Some regional chaptershave even been formed. MTA members also become colleagues ofthe International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).458 Chapter 19
THE GLOBAL REACH OFTECHNICAL ANALYSIS
During the fall of 1985, a meeting was held in Japan with techni-cal representatives of several different countries to draft a consti-tution for the International Federation of Technical Analysts(IFTA, Post Office Box 1347, New York, NY 10009 USA). Sincethen, the organization has grown to include technical analysisorganizations from more than twenty countries. One of the nicethings about being a member is that annual meetings are held inplaces like Australia, Japan, Paris, and Rome since a differentnational organization hosts each seminar. I’m proud to say that in1992 I received the first award ever given at an IFTA conferencefor “outstanding contribution to global technical analysis.”
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BYANY NAME
After a century of use in this country (and 300 years in Japan),technical analysis is more popular than ever. Of course, it’s notalways called technical analysis. In my book, The Visual Investor, Icalled it visual analysis. That was simply an attempt to get peoplebeyond the intimidating title of technical analysis and to getthem to examine this valuable approach more closely. Whateveryou want to call it, technical analysis is practiced under manynames. A lot of financial organizations employ analysts whose jobit is to number-crunch market prices to find stocks or stock groupsthat are expensive (overbought) or cheap (oversold). They’recalled quantitative analysts, but the numbers they crunch areoften the same ones the technicians are crunching. The financialpress has written about a “new” class of trader called “momen-tum” players. These traders move funds out of stocks and stockgroups that are showing poor momentum and into those that areshowing good momentum. They use a technique called relativestrength. Of course, we recognize “momentum” and “relativestrength” as technical terms.
Then there are the brokerage firms’ “fundamental”upgrades and downgrades. Have you noticed how often thesePulling It All Together—A Checklist 459
“fundamental” changes take place the day after a significant“chart” breakout or breakdown? Economists, who certainly don’tconsider themselves technical analysts, use charts all the time tomeasure the direction of inflation, interest rates, and all sorts ofeconomic indicators. And they talk about the “trend”