coin purchase plan. Unless the market forthese specialty items turns sharply higher, you will probably not recoup your original purchase price when you sell,particularly if you do not hold these items for a long time.

The bullion-coin strategy is a slow and steady one ideal forlong-term investors. You may accumulate coins for up toseveral years, while watching your dollars return either noprofits or even shrink. This is normal, because market bottoms take a long time to develop. But keep in mind thatyour plan is designed to take advantage of the up marketthat will surely follow.

There are many excellent coin dealers and coin advisoryservices that can be helpful as you make important invest-
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ment decisions. Do a little research and find a service oradvisor who can help you.
Don’t forget that storage is a significant problem, particularly in silver bullion coins. Make arrangements for storage that is both safe and accessible.

When you see prices turn sharply higher, and when the situation appears to be incredibly positive, be prepared toliquidate some of your holdings, if not all of them, and beprepared to do so rather quickly.
While the information above has given you a general introduction to bullion coins as metals investments, it is by no meansa complete coverage of the topic. Should you decide to put someof your funds into bullion and/or numismatic coins, I stronglysuggest you do additional research along the guidelines providedin previous chapters.
FAST AND FURIOUS—THE HOTTEST GAMES IN TOWNThese games are reserved for only the most advanced playerswho have high disposable incomes and can benefit from higherrisks. How do you know if you fit into this category? Chances areif you’ve gotten this far by investing, you don’t need this bookanymore. If you’ve gotten a good sum of money from Mom andDad or grandparents, from the lotto, from winning a lawsuit, orfrom some other way, you need to read this book, because oddsare you will be separated from your money quickly by the buckfeeding sharks who swim the financial waters in search of easytargets. Here are a few of the “hot games” and some precautionsto consider:
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Trading the high-stakes futures markets. Dos and don’ts of thebullion, bushels, and bales market. I have already givenyou information about this area earlier in this chapter. Inadvance, know that the vast majority of futures traders losemoney. There are many reasons for this, the most significant of which is the fact that leverage in traditional futuresis very high. Generally you pay for about 1 percent of thetotal value of your investment. This means that the pricemovements can be very large. Without a doubt, the futuresmarkets are not for most investors. Be careful!

Using a money manager to handle your futures trading account,yes or no? The answer is yes and no. There are some moneymanagers in the futures markets that have shown a fabulous performance history for several years. Such managersoften give all the money back and then some. The bestmoney manager for your futures trading account meetsthe following qualifications: (1) they have been in businessfor more than ten years; (2) they have shown profitableresults at least 70 percent of the years that they have beenmanaging money; (3) their “drawdowns” or losing periodshave amounted to less than 30 percent of portfolio size;and (4) their management fees have not been excessive.

Futures options trading—who makes the money in options? Futures options trading is even more risky than futures trading. Generally, the futures options buyer is a loser most ofthe time. Some of the most outrageous schemes and scamsin the markets have involved options trading. Because options have a limited life and lose value daily if the underlying market is not moving in the necessary direction,most options expire worthless. The investor loses all of hisor her money and commission in such cases. On the otherhand, the options seller makes money most of the time.
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Therefore, if you can get into a reputable program of options selling, you will be better off than if you are only anoptions buyer. In addition, options strategies work muchbetter than outright options buying.
Stock options—covered options strategies to generate consistentprofits. This area has already been discussed. For futures options trading, stock options programs are more conservative.

International stock markets—political risks make for large profitpotential. Trading and investing in foreign stock markets isa rapidly growing field. There are mutual funds, globalasset funds, foreign currency funds, American depositaryreceipts (foreign stocks traded on U.S. exchanges), andworld equity benchmark shares (WEBS) in which youinvest in a basket of stocks in a given country. All of theseare available and should be considered by the higher-tierinvestor.

Foreign exchange (FOREX) trading—the good, the bad, and theugly. Be very careful about trading in the FOREX market.The lure is often that there are no commissions. That’s thegood news. The bad news is that you will be competing withbanks and very large institutions. The markets are highlyvolatile and can bring you losses much faster than you caneven imagine. I advise you to stay out unless you have$1 million in risk capital.

Day trading in stocks and futures. These are both viable areasfor higher-tier investors as previously mentioned and detailed in this chapter.

Hedge fund investing. Hedge funds are more aggressivemutual funds that can buy and sell short stocks. They arenot regulated by the government as closely or as aggres-
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sively as are traditional mutual funds. These funds are designed primarily for the larger investor, and many do notaccept less than $100,000 as an initial investment. Sincetheir performance can be highly volatile and variable, Isuggest that you invest in what is called a Fund of Funds.This is a hedge fund that invests your money in a varietyof hedge funds in order to even out the peaks and valleysin performance.
Single stock futures. This area has already been discussed.
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C H A P T E R
E L E V E N
STAYING AHEADOF THE CURVEEmerging Opportunities
What does the future have in store for investors? World economies are on the threshold of record growth. With the recordgrowth will come myriad investment opportunities, particularlyin emerging markets such as Eastern Europe, the Pacific Rim, andthe former Soviet states. In addition to new markets, new technologies will offer investors some of the largest profit potentialssince the early 1970s. Now is the time to plan for the future.Time passes all too quickly, and before we realize what has happened, another decade has passed and with it many profitableopportunities. This chapter will alert you to developing trendsin world economies that can be your ticket to profits, early retirement, and wealth.
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WHAT’S AHEAD IN THE AREA OFTECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS?I have given you specific methods of investing and becomingfinancially independent. Recent studies support the finding thatwhen economies make lows, there has also been a series of important technological breakthroughs. Assuming that this is indeedthe case, and looking ahead to the next period of economicgrowth, here are my thoughts on what some of the breakthroughsmight be. In my estimation, all of these will be prime areas forlong-term investors and offer potentially large profits.
Genetic engineering and biotechnology are likely to be importantareas of innovation. These might prove to be the most profitable investment areas when the U.S. economy improves.

Routine space travel is likely to become a reality in the next 10 to15 years. This opens an entirely new era of transportationand exploration. The possibilities are virtually boundless.

Computer technology is changing dramatically. Artificial intelligence, computers that learn from their mistakes, is growing rapidly. In the coming years, progress will come inquantum leaps. Recent innovations include so-called neural networks that can correct errors and actually learn.Computer technology will continue as a field of importantinnovation. Don’t be surprised to see a marriage of genetic engineering and computer technology, resulting ina machine that can outperform the human brain manytimes over.

Alternative energy. As conflict escalates in the Middle East,and as world needs for energy increase, the importance of
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alternative energy development will increase. With this increase will come numerous investment possibilities. Thereare a number of new companies in this field that offer considerable long-term growth potential.
Communications technology is due for some revolutionary changes.Although advances in communications technology havebeen relatively stagnant for years, the coming economicboom may witness new developments using revolutionarymethods and totally new technology.

Security and defense stocks and companies are likely to do well inthe coming years. Terrorist attacks all over the world are likelyto continue and, in fact, may escalate in the next few years.Companies involved in security and defense are attractive,particularly in the area of Internet security.
It is important to keep in touch with areas of possibly newtechnology in order to capitalize on them with your investmentdollars. Jay Forrester, the highly respected economist whosecomputer-generated forecasts have been very accurate, commented on innovations and the long-term economic cycle in aninterview with Fortune magazine in 1978. His words are as truetoday as they were then. He was asked, “Do you have any idea ofthe technological basis for the next major economic upturn?”I am no more sure of the shape of the next technological wave than other people. I expect that energy willmove toward renewable and more decentralized sources,not only because of the nature of new energy sources,but because of changes in our social system. I expect thatdeclining worldwide political stability with increasing unrest and sabotage will combine with the persuasiveness of
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decentralized energy sources—like solar and wind powerand alcohol from farm products—to encourage decentralization. If individual countries can’t understand andmanage their economies, I doubt the likelihood of managing all countries simultaneously. (Fortune, 16 January1978)Again, I strongly suggest that you become an active reader oflong-term forecasts generated by “futurists.” The leading organization in this area is the World Future Society. You can learnmore about them online at <www.wfs.org/futurist.htm>. Anothergood resource is The Futurist, which you can see online at <http://futurist.com>. Remember, what you learn about expectations willnot be realities until they are confirmed by timing.
C H A P T E R
T W E L V E
SUMMARY ANDFINAL THOUGHTS
Before you venture off on your own, hopefully implementingsome of my ideas and methods, I’d like to share with you someof my thoughts about the trends and patterns in economic cyclesand some of my thoughts on investor psychology. First, let’s dealwith the psychology of investing.
A PERSPECTIVE ON INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGYThis is not the first book about long-wave economic cycles,nor will it be the last. Virtually every economist, investment advisor, or politician nowadays has his or her thoughts and opinionsabout what is and what’s to come. As conditions become morevolatile, and as reactions within the economic underpinningsare more pronounced, opinions and attitudes become more polarized. Although some experts believe that the long-wave cycles181
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have their origin in the teachings and theories of various economists or philosophers, others claim that economic trends arerandom, unpredictable, and therefore, incapable of being effectively analyzed.Still others believe that economic salvation is embodied in thevirtues of the gold standard or in the seemingly rational policiesof a balanced budget. Books, theories, opinions, and advice onthis especially relevant subject are plentiful, but little concreteinformation is available that deals with the emotional aspects ofinvestor behavior. Nor is there a confluence of opinion regarding the optimum methodology by which an investor or businessperson can implement specific investment strategies without thepotentially destructive consequences of emotion, lack of discipline, fear, or greed.For many years, advisors and economists have assumed thatinvestors are reasonable, relatively normal, well-adjusted, nonneurotic, and self-disciplined individuals. Could it be that the opposite is true? Could so many investors and speculators be losersbecause they lack the necessary emotional prerequisites for investment success? Certainly, the experience of futures traders provides us with strong evidence that 80 to 90 percent of speculatorsin these markets tend to lose their starting capital. Could it bethat the rate of losers is just as high in the stock market? Perhapsnot. Perhaps only 50 percent of stock investors are net losers.Certainly, the percentage of losers is a direct function of thetypes of investments that are selected. It appears to me that a number of variables may either exacerbate losses or facilitate profits:
The nonprofessional investor is likely to fare well in longerterm investments as opposed to shorter-term speculation.

The investor who maintains a balanced portfolio is likelyto fare better than the investor who puts all of his or her
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eggs in one basket. Diversification spreads risk and makesprofitable results more likely.
Mutual fund investments appear to be the ideal area for amajority of investors inasmuch as they spread risk, diversify,and practice the discipline necessary for successful investing.

Investors with larger starting capital tend to do better inthe long run inasmuch as they can diversify their holdingsmore quickly than can the individual beginning with limited capital.

The investor who is aware of his or her personal limitations, assets, and liabilities tends to fare better than theinvestor who plunges headlong into the markets withoutregard for the potential emotional consequences of his orher behavior.

Investors who follow a given plan or strategy tend to besuccessful more frequently than do those who place theirmoney haphazardly or without regard to a given plan, system, or strategy.

Those who are capable of selling or selling short as well asbuying tend to fare better than those who can trade onlyfrom the long side or are always bullish.
The fact that there are still losers in the stock and futuresmarkets tends to negate the value of our purportedly great stridesin business science and investment analysis. Computer technology, modern economic theory, and a veritable watershed of investment messiahs have not been able to make winners out of allof us. Facts and figures do not create investment winners unlessthey are implemented with discipline, consistency, and organization. I know from personal experience that strategy, theory,
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advice, analysis, trading systems, and investment schemes are onlyminor aspects of the success equation (although many woulddisagree with me).J. Peter Steidlmayer, whose success in futures trading is knownto few outside the field, has noted repeatedly that the formulafor market profits is dependent on the discipline and emotionalmaturity of the trader. Although Steidlmayer was not the first toassert the importance of human emotion in the achievement ofsuccess, he did so in a concise and easily expressed fashion whenhe noted the following in Markets and Market Logic (PorcupinePress, 1986):Man’s powers of observations are no longer crucial tohis survival and thus have declined through underuse.Man’s ability to think for himself analytically has alsodeclined through lack of use. . . .Man as a class would prefer to be led and told whatto do rather than think for himself. . . .Man as a class is inconsistent in his behavior: he willrespond differently to the same situation and set of datadepending on mood, stimuli, etc.Although you may learn more about virtually all fields ofinvesting from the many books available on this subject, youwill find an obvious void in the area of investment psychology.One chapter in this book cannot erase the misconception thatbetter investment methods will automatically lead to success.I do think that the analyses presented here of human psychology can provide valuable assistance to those who accept thenotion that success does not immediately follow market understanding, unless it is accompanied by self-understanding anddiscipline.
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A Question of OriginThere are those who contend that human behavior does notdetermine economic trends, and there are also those who arguein favor of economic determinism. Determinists claim that economic conditions result in stresses and strains that have a markedeffect on human behavior and emotion. Poverty, for example,may breed frustration and aggression. Wealth may breed complacency and the need for more stimulation, which, in turn, maypromote alcoholism or drug dependency as well as anxiety andpsychophysiological responses such as ulcers and migraines.On the other hand, psychologists may argue that emotioninfluences economic behavior. Their line of reasoning might bestated as follows:Human emotional responses such as anxiety and stressproduce the need for such things as liquor consumption,movie watching, and overindulgence in food. Such activities are compensatory or defensive mechanisms that areinspired by psychological needs. Insecurity, for example,may stimulate certain types of economic behavior, suchas the accumulation of material possessions, as a form ofcompensation. Irrational fear may cause investors to liquidate stocks, futures contracts, real estate, collectibles,and the like, thereby causing market crashes. Insatiablegreed may stimulate excessive buying of stocks and otherinvestments regardless of price and regardless of potential return.Each of these positions is deterministic, however. They areunacceptable lines of reasoning. They take an extremely narrowview of humankind. These positions fail to consider the fact that
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human behavior is composed of inputs from all of the sensesand virtually every aspect of the environment. Just as emotionand psychology alone cannot be seen as the stimulus of economic activity, we cannot view economic activity as the solecause of human behavior and emotion.Some theorists have claimed that the fundamental basis ofeconomic activity is war. Yet such a narrow interpretation is alsofaulty. Life, economics, history, and systems are neither simplenor readily relegated to constant causes. Whereas one economiccycle may have been precipitated by a given event or events ofspecific origin, another cycle may have been precipitated by entirely different causes.Some theorists have claimed that the origin of long-wavecycles rests in technological breakthroughs. I find these assertions equally fallacious. In reality, economic and investment behavior arises from a multiplicity of inputs—some psychological,some economic, some technological, some sociological, somereligious, and so forth.
Economic TrendsThis is an important area of consideration, because it willlikely affect all of your investments, whether in stocks, futures,options, or real estate. Consider some of my random thoughtsabout history and the big-picture outlook, for you as an investorand for the economy in general.
Instant GratificationImmediacy reigned supreme in the 1990s and continuestoday. You can log onto the Internet and within seconds can see
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world news; download music and video chips; chat with peopleyou’ve never met; post bulletins in newsgroups; buy books, videos,or CDs for delivery the next day; find a new or used car; andeven buy software for immediate downloading. For those whoseek to satisfy their sexual desires, no matter what time of day,thousands of porn Web sites are available for instant access atthe mere entry of a credit card number.On the more pragmatic side of things, you can trade stocksonline with instant electronic order entry, you can check yourbank balance, transfer funds, or donate money to your favoritecharity. And if none of this happens fast enough for you with a56K modem, you can connect using a high-speed connection, asuperfast TI line, or a variety of high-speed alternatives. Andyou can enjoy all of these on your new incredibly fast computerthat sports an ultrafast CD-ROM drive with a fast access internalhard drive. Of course, your pleasure and speed of processingcan be increased with a few gigabytes of high-speed memorychips and a voice recognition package designed to speed up inputs. And, of course, you can relax in style as you do all of thison new office furniture you don’t have to make payments onfor 12 months and at the low, low rate of 3 percent guaranteed.Speed has pervaded virtually every aspect of life. Stocksmove up and down faster than ever before. News travels acrossthe world instantly via the Internet.
ECONOMIC YIN AND YANG:CYCLES OF BOOM AND BUSTCycles of boom and bust are not new to world economies orstock markets. There have been at least six major boom and bustcycles in America, and many more minor cycles. A study of economic history underscores the inescapable fact that markets
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and economies breathe in and must eventually breathe out. Markets rise and fall, often in relatively predictable rhythms. Whenmarkets are in an upward trend, optimism reigns supreme. Politicians are elated, the public is happy, investment managers areproud, and retirees find little to complain about as long as theirmonies have been wisely invested.Ultimately, as the momentum of good times grows, optimismreaches a state of euphoria that frequently culminates in a climactic buying surge. More often than not, such extreme levelsof buying and optimism correlate closely with an end to the period of “boom.” Whereas the future looked bright during theperiod of boom, and perhaps brightest at its peak, events and investor psychology soon change with the changing tide of themarkets and the economy.When the cycle of bust begins, optimism is still high. Shortlyafter a few severe declines in the stock market, as well as a fewnegative indications from government, pessimism begins tospread. Markets decline, the economy contracts, and politicians fear for their jobs. The public is angry, shocked, and frustrated that the markets are declining. Money managers arefearful of speculative stocks and begin to seek conservative investments for their clients. Retirees are frustrated as they watchthe value of their stock portfolio erode almost daily. Pessimismbreeds more pessimism until the stock market and the overalleconomy plunge even lower in a last gasp of selling. At times,only a whimper and not a bang characterize the end of a “bust”phase. Occasionally, a new boom cycle is born of humble beginnings following a period of stagnation, one during whichthere is relatively little movement but during which marketsand economies gather energy for the coming upward phase.
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Can Government Make a Difference?Investors are encouraged to have faith in the ability of governments to control boom and bust cycles. After all, governmentscan control the supply of money, interest rates, the degree ofmarket speculation, fiscal policies that affect supply and demand,credits and loans to foreign countries, as well as a host of otherless-significant variables. All of these, when combined, theoretically exert a major effect on the direction of stocks, other investments, and the general economy. But are they really effective?Students of American history point to the fact that economicdepressions during the terms of Presidents Van Buren, Buchanan,Grant, Cleveland, Theodore Roosevelt, and Woodrow Wilsonwere either allowed to occur due to government disinterest orwere exacerbated by the fact that none of these administrationstook an active role in avoiding or alleviating them. On the otherhand, the Hoover administration parted with the tradition, takingan active role in economic policies designed to overcome the severe effects of the Great Depression. And this marked a turningpoint in the role of government with regard to economic health,safety, and welfare.Today, government is actively involved in facilitating economic growth, controlling inflationary pressures, stimulatingthe economy when necessary, and hopefully, minimizing the effects of boom and bust cycles. The prevailing opinion among investors is that the government not only has a large arsenal ofweapons to use in the fight against economic extremes, but alsothat the weapons will work when they are needed. This, of course,remains to be seen. Ultimately, no matter what governmentsmay do, the individual investor alone is responsible for his orher own successes and failures.
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Boom and Bust CyclesThe cycles of boom and bust in free world economies are notnearly as predictable as are the oscillations of planets, the motionof electrons, or the coming and going of the seasons. However,they do have their internal and external patterns, which withina reasonable degree of variation have shown a lengthy history ofrepetition. A number of well-respected classical economists, including such notables as Joseph Schumpeter, recognized this fact,incorporating it into their theories of prices and economics. Foryour own enlightenment, you may want to read the writings oftheorists such as Keynes, Schumpeter, Kitchins, and Kondratieff.
Good Guys versus Bad GuysStock and commodity price history in America reads like adrama of good guys versus bad guys. The good guys in this highstates economic thriller are the bulls, the optimists, those who feelthat markets will rise forever with only minor setbacks along theway. They are the politicians who have “worked hard” to improvethe lot of their constituents. They are the mutual fund managerswho have practiced their analytical skills, choosing the best stocksthat money can buy. And, they are the bankers who in their endless beneficence have lent money to individuals and businesses,thereby allowing them to profit in a growing economy.In their overly optimistic view, all is for the best in the bestof all possible markets. Declines are seen as “corrections.” Badnews is considered an opportunity to buy more stocks. “Buyhigh and sell higher” is one of their credos. “Buy low and sellhigh” is their theme. Government attempts to control the economy from excessive growth are a necessary but bitter pill to swallow, yet government in this phase of growth is considered a
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necessary evil. Yes, even the government is seen favorably whenthe economy is healthy and stocks are rising.Those who are cautious, pessimistic, or bearish are the badguys. They are often labeled as the “gloom and doomers.” Theirview is that upward price moves are temporary, that sooner orlater markets will crash in a syncope of bad news. In their pessimistic view, all progress is temporary. They view economic statistics as lies perpetuated by a government whose sole purpose isto hide the economic truth from the people they were electedto serve. They promote “hard money” investments as a hedgeagainst the eventual collapse of stocks, systems, and government.The good guys and bad guys are not organized into definitivecamps, clubs, or groups, but they are everywhere. Every nation,every economy, every political party, and every school of economic theory has its share of the yin and yang. While there areelements of truth in each camp, the actual truth is likely to befound somewhere in the middle. A good guy can become a badguy almost instantly, depending on his or her view of the markets and the economy. Conversely, changing his or her opinionsfrom negative to positive can redeem a bad guy. Clearly, at thepeak of a market and at the top of an economic cycle, good guyssubstantially outnumber bad guys. And at the end of an economic cycle or declining market, bad guys are in the majority,while good guys are afraid to come “out of the closet.”
MARKETS HAVE A LIFE OF THEIR OWNThe more we learn about markets and economies, the morewe realize that they have a life of their own. They are born, oftenfrom the ashes of a previously moribund economy, and they growslowly at first. They continue to grow until they reach a crest andthen begin to decline. Their fall is at first unnoticeable, perhaps
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even insipid. However, as the decline continues, it gains momentum under the forces of economic gravity, and eventually a rapiddecline ensues. Ultimately, the decline slows, a period of consolidation follows, and a bottom is eventually reached.The life cycle of markets and economies follows the samegeneral phases, although the ramifications of each phase are different. Clearly, a secular change in the economic trend can havea domino effect on all sectors of the economy, including thestock and commodity markets. Yet, it is also possible for the stockand commodity markets to affect the economic trend in certaincircumstances. This “chicken or egg” question has long been asource of controversy among economists, market technicians,traders, investors, market analysts, bankers, and government. Theultimate answer will never be known, because any market oreconomy functions in a vacuum. An excess of negative economicnews can put fear into the hearts of investors and investmentmanagers. Their attitudes can change as a result of perceivedfundamentals, which in turn may prompt them to sell. Mass negative perceptions may result in an avalanche of selling that will,in turn, cause security prices to decline.On the other hand, the overall economic outlook may bepositive; however, concerted selling of stocks by large investorsand traders can reverberate through the economy, causing investors to avoid stocks, cut back on spending, and thereby affectthe overall economy. Clearly, the interrelationships of all economic sectors, news, emotion, stock market trends, and international and domestic news all operate in a complex fashionthat maintains an often delicate balance.
YESTERDAY, TODAY, AND TOMORROWThe last stock market rally started in the early 1980s. On avery broad scale, plotting stock trends using a logarithmic meas-
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ure, the rally actually began in 1932 following the Great Depression. There have only been a handful of significant declinessince the start of the greatest bull market in history. Beginningin 1995, the U.S. stock market started a near vertical acceleration. While there are numerous comparisons between the current U.S. stock market and the stock market of the 1920s, thereare more dissimilarities than similarities.A simple conclusion that the U.S. stock market is destinedto crash based on similarities between the stock market in 2000and the pre-1929 crash market alone is likely to be wrong aswell as unrealistic. However, there are other causes for concern,causes that are global, interrelated, and considerably more significant than any aspects of the U.S. or world economies ofthe 1920s. These concerns cause stocks to decline and in sodoing cause opportunities for long-term investors to buy quality stocks.
Paper MillionairesThe largest bull market in U.S. history created more papermillionaires than any stock market rally heretofore. The largestbull market in U.S. history attracted more investment dollarsinto mutual funds than has any other market in U.S. history.And the stock market rally lulled more investors into a falsesense of security than any market in U.S. history. Now that thebull market has ended, erasing trillions of dollars in paper profits, the time is right and ripe for new investors to step into thepicture. And this is where you come in. This is where the present book and my methods will be your best friends.If you have learned your lessons well, you are now preparedto embark on a moneymaking venture and adventure. If, however, you have not comprehended what I have presented, I urgeyou to go back and reread this book.
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SUMMING UP THE LESSONS LEARNEDHere is a general summary of what I have taught you in thisbook. If any of these points is unfamiliar or unclear to you, goback and review them.
You can be your own financial expert.

The General In