I would see theformation of patterns that would foretell major movements.Right then I determined to eliminate all the minor movements.By continued close study of the many records I had kept the realization struck me that the time element was vital in forming a correct opinionas to the approach of the really important movements. With renewed vigorI concentrated on that feature. What I wanted to discover was a method ofrecognizing what constituted the minor swings. I realized a market in adeﬁnite trend still had numerous intermediate oscillations. They had beenconfusing. They were no longer to be my concern.I wanted to ﬁnd out what constituted the beginning of a Natural Reaction or a Natural Rally. So I began checking the distances of price movements. First I based my calculations on one point. That was no good. Thentwo points, and so on, until ﬁnally I arrived at a point that representedwhat I thought should constitute the beginning of a Natural Reaction orNatural Rally.To simplify the picture I had printed a special sheet of paper, ruled indistinctive columns, and so arranged as to give me what I term my Mapfor Anticipating Future Movements. For each stock I use six columns.Prices are recorded in the columns as they occur. Each column has itsheading.First column is headed Secondary Rally.Second is headed Natural Rally.
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Third is headed Upward Trend.Fourth is headed Downward Trend.Fifth is headed Natural Reaction.Sixth is headed Secondary Reaction.When ﬁgures are recorded in the Upward Trend column they are entered in black ink. In the next two columns to the left I insert the ﬁgures inpencil. When ﬁgures are recorded in the Downward Trend column they areentered in red ink, and in the next two columns to the right, the entriesare also made in pencil.Thus when recording the prices either in the Upward Trend column orin the Downward Trend column I am impressed with the actual trend atthe time. Those ﬁgures in distinctive ink talk to me. The red ink [nowblack and boxed] or the black ink [still black but circled], used persistently, tells a story that is unmistakable.When the pencil remains in use I realize I am simply noting the naturaloscillations. (In the reproduction of my records later on, bear in mind thatthe prices entered in light blue ink [now black] are those for which I use apencil on my sheets.)I decided a stock selling around $30.00 or higher would have to rallyor react from an extreme point to the extent of approximately six pointsbefore I could recognize that a Natural Rally or Natural Reaction was in themaking. This rally or reaction does not indicate that the trend of the market has changed its course. It simply indicates that the market is experiencing a natural movement. The trend is exactly the same as it was beforethe rally or reaction occurred.I would here explain that I do not take the action of a single stock asan indication that the trend has been positively changed for that group.Instead I take the combined action of two stocks in any group before I recognize the trend has deﬁnitely changed, hence the Key Price. By combining the prices and movements in these two stocks I arrive at what I callmy Key Price. I ﬁnd that an individual stock sometimes has a movementbig enough to put it in my Upward Trend column or my Downward Trendcolumn. But there is danger of being caught in a false movement by depending upon only one stock. The movement of the two stocks combinedgives reasonable assurance. Thus, a positive change of the trend must beconﬁrmed by the action of the Key Price.Let me illustrate this Key Price method. Strictly adhering to the sixpoint movement to be used as a basis, you will note in my subsequentrecords that at times I record a price in U.S. Steel if it only has had amove, let us say, of 51/8 points because you will ﬁnd a corresponding(Continued)
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movement in Bethlehem Steel, say, of 7 points. Taken together the pricemovements of the two stocks constitute the Key Price. This Key Price,then, totals twelve points or better, the proper distance required.When a recording point has been reached, that is, a move of sixpoints average by each of the two stocks, I continue to set down in thatsame column the extreme price made any day, whenever it is higher thanthe last price recorded in the Upward Trend column or is lower than thelast price recorded in the Downward Trend column. This goes on until areverse movement starts. This later movement in the other direction will,of course, be based on the same six-point average, or twelve points forthe Key Price.You will notice that from then on I never deviate from those points. Imake no exceptions. Nor do I make excuses, if the results are not exactlyas I anticipated. Remember, these prices I set forth in my records are notmy prices. These points have been determined by actual prices registeredin the day’s trading.It would be presumptuous for me to say I had arrived at the exactpoint from which my record of prices should start. It would also be misleading and insincere. I can only say that after years of checking and observation I feel I have arrived somewhere near a point that can be used asa basis for keeping records. From these records one can visualize a mapuseful in determining the approach of important price movements.Someone has said that success rides upon the hour of decision. Certainly success with this plan depends upon courage to act and actpromptly when your records tell you to do so. There is no place for vacillation. You must train your mind along those lines. If you are going towait upon someone else for explanations or reasons or reassurances, thetime for action will have escaped. To give an illustration: After the rapidadvance stocks had following the declaration of war in Europe, a NaturalReaction occurred in the whole market. Then all the stocks in the fourprominent groups recovered their reaction and all sold at new highprices—with the exception of the stocks in the Steel group. Anyonekeeping records according to my method would have had their attentiondrawn very forcefully to the action of the Steel stocks. Now there musthave been a very good reason why the Steel stocks refused to continuetheir advance along with the other groups. There was a good reason! Butat the time I did not know it, and I doubt very much that anyone couldhave given a valid explanation for it. However, anyone who had beenrecording prices would have realized by the action of the Steel stocksthat the upward movement in the Steel group had ended. It was not untilthe middle of January 1940, four months later, that the public was giventhe facts and the action of the Steel stocks was explained. An announce-
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ment was made that during that time the English Government had disposed of over 100,000 shares of U.S. Steel, and in addition Canada hadsold 20,000 shares. When that announcement was made the price of U.S.Steel was 26 points lower than its high price attained in September 1939and Bethlehem Steel was 29 points lower, whereas the prices of theother three prominent groups were off only 2 to 121/4 points from thehigh prices that were made at the same time the Steels made their highs.This incident proves the folly of trying to ﬁnd out a good reason whyyou should buy or sell a given stock. If you wait until you have the reason given you, you will have missed the opportunity of having acted atthe proper time! The only reason an investor or speculator should everwant to have pointed out to him is the action of the market itself. Whenever the market does not act right or in the way it should—that is reasonenough for you to change your opinion and change it immediately. Remember: there is always a reason for a stock acting the way it does. Butalso remember: the chances are that you will not become acquaintedwith that reason until some time in the future, when it is too late to acton it proﬁtably.I repeat that the formula does not provide points whereby you canmake additional trades, with assurance, on intermediate ﬂuctuationswhich occur during a major move. The intent is to catch the major moves,to indicate the beginning and the end of movements of importance. Andfor such purpose you will ﬁnd the formula of singular value if faithfullypursued. It should, perhaps, also be repeated that this formula is designed for active stocks selling above an approximate price of 30. Whilethe same basic principles are of course operative in anticipating the market action of all stocks, certain adjustments in the formula must be madein considering the very low-priced issues.There is nothing complicated about it. The various phases will be absorbed quickly and with easy understanding by those who are interested.In the next chapter is given the exact reproduction of my records,with full explanation of the ﬁgures which I have entered.Explanatory Rules(1) Record prices in Upward Trend Column in black ink.(2) Record prices in Downward Trend column in red ink.(3) Record prices in the other four columns in pencil.(4) (a) Draw red [black and dashed] lines under your last recordedprice in the Upward Trend column the ﬁrst day you start to record ﬁguresin the Natural Reaction column. You begin to do this on the ﬁrst reaction of(Continued)
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approximately six points from the last price recorded in the UpwardTrend column.(b) Draw red [black and dashed] lines under your last recorded pricein the Natural Reaction column the ﬁrst day you start to record ﬁgures inthe Natural Rally column or in the Upward Trend column. You begin to dothis on the ﬁrst rally of approximately six points from the last pricerecorded in the Natural Reaction column. You now have two Pivotal Pointsto watch, and depending on how prices are recorded when the market returns to around one of those points, you will then be able to form an opinion as to whether the positive trend is going to be resumed in earnest—orwhether the movement has ended.(c) Draw black lines under your last recorded price in the DownwardTrend column the ﬁrst day you start to record ﬁgures in the NaturalRally column. You begin to do this on the ﬁrst rally of approximately sixpoints from the last price recorded in the Downward Trend column.(d) Draw black lines under your last recorded price in the Natural Rallycolumn the ﬁrst day you start to record ﬁgures in the Natural Reaction column or in the Downward Trend column. You begin to do this on the ﬁrstreaction of approximately six points from the last price recorded in theNatural Rally column.(5) (a) When recording in the Natural Rally column and a price isreached that is three or more points above the last price recorded inthe Natural Rally column (with black lines underneath), then that priceshould be entered in black ink [and circled] in the Upward Trendcolumn.(b) When recording in the Natural Reaction column and a price isreached that is three or more points below the last price recorded in theNatural Reaction column (with red [black and dashed] lines underneath),then that price should be entered in red ink [black and boxed] in theDownward Trend column.(6) (a) When a reaction occurs to an extent of approximately sixpoints, after you have been recording prices in the Upward Trend column, you then start to record those prices in the Natural Reaction column, and continue to do so every day thereafter that the stock sells at aprice which is lower than the last recorded price in the Natural Reactioncolumn.(b) When a reaction occurs to an extent of approximately six points,after you have been recording prices in the Natural Rally column, you thenstart to record those prices in the Natural Reaction column, and continueto do so every day thereafter that the stock sells at a price which is lowerthan the last recorded price in the Natural Reaction column. In case a priceis made which is lower than the last recorded price in the Downward
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Trend column, you would then record that price in the Downward Trendcolumn.(c) When a rally occurs to an extent of approximately six points, afteryou have been recording prices in the Downward Trend column, you thenstart to record those prices in the Natural Rally column, and continue todo so every day thereafter that the stock sells at a price which is higherthan the last recorded price in the Natural Rally column.(d) When a rally occurs to an extent of approximately six points, after you have been recording prices in the Natural Reaction column, youthen start to record those prices in the Natural Rally column, and continue to do so every day thereafter that the stock sells at a price whichis higher than the last recorded price in the Natural Rally column. Incase a price is made which is higher than the last recorded price in theUpward Trend column, you would then record that price in the UpwardTrend column.(e) When you start to record ﬁgures in the Natural Reaction columnand a price is reached that is lower than the last recorded ﬁgure in theDownward Trend column then that price should be entered in red ink[black and boxed] in the Downward Trend column.(f) The same rule applies when you are recording ﬁgures in the Natural Rally column and a price is reached that is higher than the last pricerecorded in the Upward Trend column—then you would cease recording inthe Natural Rally column and record that price in black ink [and circled] inthe Upward Trend column.(g) In case you had been recording in the Natural Reaction column anda rally should occur of approximately six points from the last recorded ﬁgure in the Natural Reaction column—but that price did not exceed the lastprice recorded in the Natural Rally column—that price should be recordedin the Secondary Rally column and should continue to be so recorded untila price had been made which exceeded the last ﬁgure recorded in the Natural Rally column. When that occurs, you should commence to recordprices in the Natural Rally column once again.(h) In case you have been recording in the Natural Rally column and areaction should occur of approximately six points, but the price reachedon that reaction was not lower than the last recorded ﬁgure in your Natural Reaction column that price should be entered in your Secondary Reaction column, and you should continue to record prices in that column untila price was made that was lower than the last price recorded in the Natural Reaction column. When that occurs, you should commence to recordprices in the Natural Reaction column once again.(Continued)
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(7) The same rules apply when recording the Key Price—except thatyou use twelve points as a basis instead of six points used in individualstocks.(8) The last price recorded in the Downward or Upward Trendcolumns becomes a Pivotal Point as soon as you begin to record prices inthe Natural Rally or Natural Reaction columns. After a rally or reaction hasended you start to record again in the reverse column, and the extremeprice made in the previous column then becomes another Pivotal Point. Itis after two Pivotal Points have been reached that these records become ofgreat value to you in helping you anticipate correctly the next movementof importance.These Pivotal Points are drawn to your attention by having a doubleline drawn underneath them in either red [black and dashed] ink orblack ink. Those lines are drawn for the express purpose of keepingthose points before you, and should be watched very carefully whenever prices are made and recorded near or at one of those points. Yourdecision to act will then depend on how prices are recorded from thenon.(9) (a) When you see black lines drawn below the last recorded red-inkﬁgure [black and boxed] in the Downward Trend column you may begiven a signal to buy near that point.(b) When black lines are drawn below a price recorded in the NaturalRally column, and if the stock on its next rally reaches a point near thatPivotal Point price, that is the time you are going to ﬁnd out whether themarket is strong enough deﬁnitely to change its course into the UpwardTrend column.(c) The reverse holds true when you see red [black and dashed] linesdrawn under the last price recorded in the Upward Trend column, andwhen red [black and dashed] lines are drawn below the last pricerecorded in the Natural Reaction column.(10) (a) This whole method is designed to enable one to see clearlywhether a stock is acting the way it ought to, after its ﬁrst Natural Rallyor Reaction has occurred. If the movement is going to be resumed in apositive manner—either up or down—it will carry through its previousPivotal Point—in individual stocks by three points or, in the Key Price bysix points.(b) If the stock fails to do this and in a reaction sells three points ormore below the last Pivotal Point (recorded in the Upward Trend columnwith red [black and dashed] lines drawn underneath), it would indicatethat the Upward Trend in the stock is over.
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(c) Applying the rule to the Downward Trend: Whenever, after a Natural Rally has ended, new prices are being recorded in the DownwardTrend column, these new prices must extend three or more points belowthe last Pivotal Point (with black lines underneath), if the Downward Trendis to be positively resumed.(d) If the stock fails to do this, and on a rally sells three or more pointsabove the last Pivotal Point (recorded in the Downward Trend column withblack lines drawn underneath), it would indicate that the Downward Trendin the stock is over.(e) When recording in the Natural Rally column, if the rally ends ashort distance below the last Pivotal Point in the Upward Trend column(with red [black and dashed] lines underneath), and the stock reacts threeor more points from that price, it is a danger signal, which would indicatethe Upward Trend in that stock is over.(f) When recording in the Natural Reaction column, if the reactionends a short distance above the last Pivotal Point in the Downward Trendcolumn (with black lines underneath), and the stock rallies three or morepoints from that price, it is a danger signal, which would indicate theDownward Trend in that stock is over.
On the following pages, on the lefthand side, are Jesse Livermore’soriginal notes for his secret market key.
On April 2nd prices began to be recorded in Natural Rally column. Referto Explanatory Rule 6-B. Draw black line under last price in DownwardTrend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 4-C.
On April 28th, prices began to be recorded in Natural Reaction column.Refer to Explanatory Rule 4-D.
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All of these prices recorded are brought forth from the preceding page inorder to keep the Pivotal Points always before you.
During the period from May 5th to May 21st inclusive, no prices wererecorded because no prices were made lower than the last price recordedin the Natural Reaction column. Nor was there sufﬁcient rally to berecorded.
On May 27th, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in red [blackand boxed] because it was a lower price than the previous price recordedin the Downward Trend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-C.On June 2nd, Bethlehem Steel became a buy at 43. Refer to ExplanatoryRule 10-C and D. On the same day U.S. Steel became a buy at 42 1/4. Referto Explanatory Rule 10-F.
On June 10th, a price was recorded in the Secondary Rally column ofBethlehem Steel. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-E.
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On June 20th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the Secondary Rallycolumn. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-G.On June 24th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recorded inblack ink [and circled] in the Upward Trend column. Refer to ExplanatoryRule 5-A.
On July 11th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recorded inthe Natural Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rules 6-A and 4-A.
On July 19th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recorded inthe Upward Trend column in black ink [and circled] because those priceswere higher than the last prices that were recorded in those columns. Refer to Explanatory Rule 4-B.
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On August 12th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the SecondaryReaction column because the price was not lower than the last price previously recorded in the Natural Reaction column. On the same day theprice of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the Natural Reaction column because that price was lower than the last price previously recorded in theNatural Reaction column.
On August 24th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-D.On August 29th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Secondary Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-H.
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On September 14th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the DownwardTrend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 5-B. On the same day a price wasrecorded in the Natural Reaction column of Bethlehem Steel. That pricewas still being recorded in the Natural Reaction column because it had notreached a price that was 3 points lower than its previous price with red[black and dashed] lines drawn. On September 20th, prices of U.S. Steel andBethlehem Steel were recorded in the Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-C for U.S. Steel and 6-D for Bethlehem Steel.On September 24th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the DownwardTrend column in red ink [black and boxed], being a new price in that column.On September 29th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Secondary Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-G.
On October 5th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the UpwardTrend column in black ink [and circled]. Refer to Explanatory Rule 5-A.On October 8th, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the UpwardTrend column in black ink [and circled]. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-D.
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On November 18th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Natural Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-A.
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On December 14th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-D.
On December 28th, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the Upward Trend column in black ink [and circled], being a price higher thanthe last price previously recorded in that column.On January 4th, the next trend of the market was being indicated according to the Livermore method. Refer to Explanatory Rules 10-A and B.
On January 12th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Secondary Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-H.
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On January 23rd, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Downward Trend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 5-B.
On January 31st, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rules 6-C and 4-C.
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On March 16th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Natural Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-B.
On March 30th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the DownwardTrend column, being a lower price than was previously recorded in theDownward Trend column.On March 31st, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the Downward Trend column, being a lower price than was previously recorded inthe Downward Trend column.
On April 15th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recorded inthe Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-C.
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On May 17th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recorded in theNatural Reaction column, and the next day, May 18th, the price of U.S. Steelwas recorded in the Downward Trend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6D. The next day, May 19th, a black line was drawn under the DownwardTrend column in Bethlehem Steel, meaning a price was made that was thesame as the last price recorded in the Downward Trend column.On May 25th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recorded inthe Secondary Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-C.
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On June 16th, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the NaturalReaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-B.
On June 28th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the Natural Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-B.On June 29th, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the Downward Trend column, being a price lower than the last price recorded in theDownward Trend column.
On July 13th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recorded inthe Secondary Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-G.198
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On July 21st, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the UpwardTrend column, and the next day, July 22nd, the price of U.S. Steel wasrecorded in the Upward Trend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 5-A.
On August 4th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Natural Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 4-A.
On August 23rd, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the DownwardTrend column, being lower than the price previously recorded in theDownward Trend column.200
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On August 29th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-D.On September 2nd, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Upward Trend column, being higher prices than the lastprices previously recorded in the Upward Trend column.
On September 14th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Natural Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rules 6-Aand 4-A.On September 19th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rules 6-Dand 4-B.
On September 28th, prices for U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Secondary Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-H.
On October 6th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Secondary Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-G.202
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On November 3rd, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the SecondaryReaction column, being a price lower than the last previous pricerecorded in that column.On November 9th, a dash was made in the Natural Reaction column ofU.S. Steel, being the same price that was last recorded in the Natural Reaction column, and on the same day a new price was recorded in the Natural Reaction column of Bethlehem Steel, being a lower price than the lastprice previously recorded in that column.
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On November 24th, the price of U.S. Steel was recorded in the Downward Trend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-E, and the next day, November 25th, the price of Bethlehem Steel was recorded in the DownwardTrend column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-E.
On December 7th, the prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel wererecorded in the Natural Rally column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-C.
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On January 9th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Natural Reaction column. Refer to Explanatory Rule 6-B.On January 11th, prices of U.S. Steel and Bethlehem Steel were recordedin the Downward Trend column, being lower than the last recorded pricesin the Downward Trend columns.
On February 7th, prices are recorded in the Natural Rally column ofBethlehem Steel, this being the ﬁrst day it rallied the required distance ofsix points. The following day U.S. Steel is recorded in addition to Bethlehem Steel and the Key Price, the latter having rallied the proper distanceto be used in recording.
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About the Author
R
ichard Smitten is the author of numerous books including Jesse Livermore: World’s Greatest Stock Trader, The Godmother, CapitalCrimes, Legal Tender, False Witness, Inside the Cocaine Cartel,and Death Stream.With the public company Stock Market Solutions (symbol SMKT on theNasdaq Bulletin Board), Smitten currently is developing a fully automatedsoftware program that allows the trader to trade like Jesse Livermore.Smitten is a full-time author and trader. He has recently completed abiography of Ernest Hemingway. He lives in the French Quarter, NewOrleans, Louisiana.
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Index
Aberrations, implications of, 62, 64,71Active markets, 139Active stocks, 128–131Advancing markets, 74AGCO Corp. (AG), 58–59, 63–64Algorithms, 75Amazing Life of JesseLivermore—World’s GreatestStock Trader, The (Smitten),105–107Amazon, 31America Online, 31AMEX Brokers/Dealers Index(XBO), 35AMEX Securities Broker/DealerIndex (XBD), 42, 51Analysts, advice from, 66, 89, 124Anticipation, 13–14, 53, 66, 73, 109,132, 143–144, 157–158, 160,164AT&T, 38Automatic Data Processing (ADP),60Average traders, 136, 141Averaging down, 86, 89, 147Averaging losses, 19, 80, 145–146Averaging up, 87Balance sheet, 75Bankruptcy, 7, 81Bargain stocks, 29, 78
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), 61–62Baruch, Bernard, 76, 116Bearish market, 167Bearish Trend, 157Bear markets, 13, 109, 166Best Buy, 39, 59, 66Bethlehem Steel, Secret MarketKey, 178–209Black Tuesday, 48Blue chip stocks, 19–27, 89Bradley, Ed, 105, 107Break-outs:from a consolidating base, 64–66implications of, generally, 58–61,159new high, heavy volume, 87on new high/low, 67–70Broker/Dealers Group, 34–36, 39Brokerage accounts, 90–91, 148Brokerage fees, 84Bucket Shop rule, 79–80, 164Bucket shops, 4–6Bullish market, 167Bullish Trend, 157Bull markets, 13, 30–31, 109, 161,166Buy and hold strategy, 17–19