6, 265and inflation, 40, 54, 56, 72-73and interest rates, 9, 19, 74, 75-79, 94in intermarket analysis, 54lead time and, 63, 70, 90sequence of in market turns, 90vs. the stock ma!rket, 54, 86-89and the stock market crash of 1987,17-18, 19, 88, 243vs. Treasury bill futures, 83-86and Treasury bonds, 57-59, 77, 78, 79,82-83Double bottom, 65, 67, 69, 71, 129, 133,152, 273, 275Double top, 43, 45, 62, 89, 160, 161, 162,165, 172, 175, 177, 181, 182, 212, 273,275Dow Jones Industrial Average, 17, 18, 22,41, 42, 43, 86,« 87, 129, 152, 165, 173,266, 273
INDEX
bonds, utilities, and, 184-185, 263vs. crude oil, 270Dow Jones Transportation Average, 173, 273Dow Jones 20 Bond Average, 180, 230Dow Jones Utility Average, 10, 19, 172, 180,185vs. the Dow Jones Industrial Average,173-177Down gap, 274Downtrend, 23, 184, 215, 227, 276Down trendline, 273Dow Theory, 14, 173, 185, 273Drought, market effects of, 24, 25, 38, 98,212Economic forces, 3Economic forecasting, 229-230Economist Commodity Price Index, 144,145-146, 147Efficient frontier, 222-223Elliott wave analysis, 6, 273-274, 275Energy markets, 8, 9, 95, 98, 110, 112,113-114, 116, 147, 149. See also Oilmarketsgroup analysis, 188, 192-194Eurodollars, 35, 36, 38, 52Exchange rate, 93, 256Exhaustion gap, 274Expansion, 10, 22, 54, 225, 226, 229Exponential smoothing, 274Fast stochastics, 275Federal Reserve Board, 9, 35, 47, 48, 52, 75,76, 79, 87, 146commodities and policy of, 96, 116-117Fibonacci number, 273Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100share index, 129, 138Flags, 273, 274, 275Flight to quality, 152Flight to safety, 24, 47, 76, 87, 153Foreign currency markets, 60, 66—68Franc, Swiss, 66France, 142Fundamental analysis, 7, 274Futures markets, 7-8, 53, 95, 216-217, 255Gaps, 274Globalization, 11, 53, 256-257Gold, 53and the dollar, 60, 63-65, 70-72, 73, 265vs. the Dow Jones Industrials, 232, 266
279
foreign currencies and, 66-68vs. gold mining shares, 150-157, 158as a key to vital intermarket links, 38, 93as a leading indicator of the CRB Index,68-70, 227, 233as a leading indicator of inflation, 91-92,93, 94, 98, 150and oil, 114-115, 200and the stock market, 91-92, 152Gold mining shares, 93, 147, 149, 195, 198vs. gold, 9, 150-157, 158vs. money center stocks, 170-171Gold mutual funds, 152, 153Gold/silver ratio, 199Grain markets, 8, 38, 98, 110, 111, 188 :Great Britain, 2, 7, 10, 66, 124, 125, 126,127, 128-132, 145, 267Group analysis, 110-113, 187, 188Head and shoulders, 13, 106, 165, 166, 174,274,275Hedging, 206, 213, 220, 222Heller, Robert, 116Index arbitrage, 242Individual rankings, 187, 200-202Inflation, 13, 40, 56, 72-73, 86, 96commodity price trends as a key to,3, 20-21, 57-59, 60global, 141-143gold and, 91-92, 93, 94, 98, 150Interest-rate differentials, 93Interest rates:bonds and, 3and commodities, 13, 22, 106-108vs. the CRB, PPI, and CPI, 120and the dollar, 9, 19, 74, 75-79, 86, 94global, 139-141and inflation, 20, 86long-term, 12, 75, 79-82metals and energy futures vs., 115-116Short-term, 35-36, 52, 75-82and the stock market crash, 16, 17and stocks, 40, 52-53Interest-sensitive stocks, 147, 150, 164-165,172, 229Intermarket analysis:as background information, 5, 6basic principles and relationships in, 5,255and the business cycle, 225-239commodities as the missing link in,255-256
280
computerization and globalization,256-257defined, 1, 274futures market and, 5, 7-8, 255on a global scale, 144-145, 147historical perspective on, 53-54implications for technical analysis, 2-3,5, 254key market relationships, 9need for, 2, 34-35new directions in, 257outward focus of, 5, 6-7, 253-254related markets, 151role of commodity markets in, 8starting point for, 19, 74of stock groups, 150updates on, 259-271Intermarket indexes, global, 144-145, 147International markets, see OverseasmarketsInverse head and shoulders, 274Inverted yield curve, 52Island reversal, 274Isolation, 1, 2, 5, 253Italy, 142
Japari, 2, 10, 122, 124, 125, 126, 127,132-139, 142, 145, 242-243, 251,267, 268Johnson, Manuel, 116, 146Journal of Commerce (JOC) Index, 9,99-100, 108, 121, 226, 235, 239vs. the CRB Futures Index, 104-106
Key reversal day, 274
Leading Indicators of the 1990s, 230, 232Left shoulder, 13, 14, 168Line charts, 274Lintner, John, 219Long-leading index, 230-231Long-term interest rates, 12, 75, 79-82McGinley, Jr., John G., 174Managed futures accounts, 219, 224Managed Account Reports, 220Market analysis, 5Market sectors, 3, 4-5, 7, 9, 12, 74, 94, 122,134, 138, 217, 218-219, 250, 252, 256,260
INDEX
Measuring gap, 274, 275Momentum, 274Money center banks, 149, 165, 170-171vs. the NYSE Composite Index, 169-170Money market prices, 144-145Moore, Geoffrey, 230-231Moving average, 6, 8, 145, 274
Negative divergence, 15, 32, 51, 167, 180Negative yield curve, 79New York Futures Exchange, 117New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)Composite Index, 39, 169-170Nikkei 225 Stock Average, 132, 133, 134,136
Oil market, 14, 38, 98crude prices, 14, 118, 134, 138-139, 159,160, 179, 270and gold, 114-115, 200vs. Oil stocks, 158-161, 162-164, 271price regulation, 53Open interest, 274Oscillators, 6, 8, 15, 31, 32, 42, 274Overbought condition, 34, 274Overseas markets, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 19, 53, 68,93world stock markets, 122-124Oversold condition, 34, 205, 274
Pennants, 273, 274-275% Investment Advisors Bullish, 275Platinum stocks, 195, 196, 198Portfolio insurance, 12Positive divergence, 43, 67, 69Positive yield curve, 52Pound sterling, British, 66Precious metals markets, 8, 9, 22, 95, 98,110, 113-114, 115group analysis, 188, 194-198Price differences, 274Price patterns, 8, 275Pring, Martin, 226, 228, 234Producer Price Index (PPI), 9, 20, 35, 96,117-120, 121, 138, 222Program trading, 5, 11, 12, 124causes of, 241-242as an effect, 241an example from one day's trading,242-244media treatment of, 241-242
INDEX
as a scapegoat, 242-243a visual look at the morning's trading,244-251
Rate(s) of change, 274, 275Ratio analysis, 10, 35, 187, 206, 223defined, 275of the CRB Index vs. bonds, 207-211Recession, 22, 47, 48, 54, 172, 225, 227,236, 237Relative ratio, 187, 204, 207Relative strength, 39, 152, 275analysis, 10, 35, 186-187, 202, 206, 213ratios, 187-188Relative-Strength Index, 187, 275Resistance, 8, 33-34, 275Retracements, 275Reversal patterns, 19, 43, 44, 129, 275Right shoulder, 165, 168, 174, 176Ripple effect, 5, 86, 180, 242, 243Rising bottom, 67, 69Risk, 219, 221-222, 223Runaway gap, 275
Salomon Brothers Long-Term High-GradeCorporate Bond Index, 220-221Saucer, 275Savings and loan stocks, 149, 174vs. bonds, 165-168vs. CRB Index, 168-169Sentiment indicators, 275Short-leading index, 231Short-term interest rates, 35-36, 52, 75-82Silver mining stocks, 164, 171, 194, 197,199Simple average, 275Slow stochastics, 275Spot Foodstuffs Index, 96, 99, 100-101,102, 108, 234Spot prices, 95, 98Spot Raw Industrials Index, 9, 96, 99,100-101, 102, 226, 234, 235Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 stock index,164, 186, 220, 241, 245, 246, 250, 275Standard & Poor's (S&P) Savings and LoanGroup Index, 165vs. the CRB Index, 168-169vs. the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 165Standard deviation, 221-222Stochastics, 31, 32, 42, 275Stock groups, 9, 149-172and related commodities, 149-150
281
Stock market:bottom of 1982, 42-43British and U.S. compared, 2, 124, 125,126, 127, 128-132, 267on a global scale, 148, 254gold and, 91-92, 152Japanese and U.S. compared, 2, 124, 125,126, 127, 132-139, 142, 267, 268Stock market crash of 1987, 76, 152. Seealso Program tradingbond market collapse as a precursor of, 9,14-17, 43, 47environment prior to, 12-14, 58global impact of, 1, 2, 12, 124-127, 242interest rates and, 16, 17reasons for, 12, 242role of the dollar in, 17-18, 19, 88, 243Stock market mini-crash of 1989, 127, 153,157Stocks:vs. bonds, 9, 15, 40-55, 262and commodities, 90-91compared to Treasury bonds, 44CRB Index vs., 211-216and the dollar, 54, 86-89and futures activity, 10interest rates and, 52-53Support, 275-276Symmetrical triangle, 13, 14, 160, 275, 276
Technical analysis, 2-3, 5, 6, 8, 34-35, 254,257, 276Three-steps-and-a-stumble rule, 52-53, 135Trading range, 276Treasury bills, 36-38, 52, 75-79, 83-86Treasury bonds, 10, 13, 21, 22-30, 32, 35,36, 37, 44, 261Trend, 276Trendlines, 6, 8, 14, 32, 169, 207, 208,276Triangles, 273, 276Trin, 273Triple bottoms, 275, 276Triple tops, 275, 276
US. Dollar, see Dollar, U.S.U.S. Dollar Index, 7, 62, 71, 216, 218Up gap, 274Uptrend, 32, 46, 152, 276Up trendline, 276Utilities, 172, 178-181, 185. See also DowJones Utilities Average
282
INDEX
Volume, 6, 276
World Short Rates, 144World Stock Index, 144
Wave identification, 274Weighted average, 276West Germany, 142, 244, 257Wilder, Jr., Welles, 275
Yen, Japanese, 66, 135, 242-243, 251Yield curve, 52, 79, 82, 117Zarnowitz, Victor, 232
<|end|>