zealot, which is what is required at times whencovering customers. What he lacked in raw fury he made up for with pureintelligence, a fact that was obvious to everyone around him.
One morning, Nick Castrovillari, our ﬁlling broker in the midcap Russellpit and a close friend, told us that there would be an opening among thebrokers in his group. He asked if we knew of anyone we would want to ﬁllour orders. It was a smart suggestion on Castrovillari’s part—he knew thatwe needed to be happy with the choice of broker that was going to be made.After talking it over with both me and Weisblum, Sereleas decided that thiswas a window of opportunity that could close fast. He quickly sprang intoaction, and began doing the homework necessary for both brokering andtrading the smaller stock indexes. He started in the pit as a broker butfound that he enjoyed trading. Not only did he become one of the bestbrokers in the pit, but he discovered his natural ability to feel the orderﬂow and understand, through his days working with Weisblum, how thefundamentals of the market affected the daily trade.
Both Fiandaca and Sereleas are examples of the psychology of themarketplace at that time. Not only were everyday people making moneythough a rising equity market, but the prosperity accelerated to a certaindegree the social mobility within the entire capital markets universe. Whatwas happening at my desk was the norm throughout the ﬂoor. Coworkerswere ﬁnding niches to ﬁll as they were being created by the market and alsoﬁnding incredible success along the way. Even though we are witnessingthe explosion in volume caused by the proliferation of electronic trading,the late 1990s could be considered the golden age of the S&P 500 futures pit.
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It was a wonderful time for anyone associated with the entire equityquadrant at the CME. Other areas within the exchange had experiencedsimilar intervals. Agricultural products were the futures products of choicein the late 1960s and 1970s (primarily because there were no other prod-ucts to trade). Then came the golden age of currency futures, which lastedabout 20 years, until the consolidation among European currencies and theunregulated cash market shrank the CME market share to a fraction of theoverall notional value of Forex traded daily.
The interest rate quadrant continues to experience quality order ﬂowprimarily because technology has not yet been able to take the back monthspreads (the deferred months in the Eurodollar contract have thousandsof combinations going out 10 years) or the options markets (which havethousands of strike prices) and transition them effectively onto the screen.But as far as the equity quadrant was concerned in the late 1990s, it feltlike the party was going to last forever. And why not? We were in a growingindustry with the best volatility a market had to offer. We had just launcheda successful Nasdaq futures market and were ﬁnding continued successwith the smaller midcap and Russell futures. But everyone knows a partycan’t last forever!
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE TRADING PIT
If there was any question about whether the good times might be over, itwas answered in 2001. The previous year had seen the tech balloon pop andthe ancillary impact of the shrinking wealth effect was beginning to show,with a slowdown in business and a lack of interest. I mentioned earlier thatmy old friend Aaron Reinglass is fond of saying that it’s not drinking thatcauses hangovers, it’s stopping drinking that causes them. Well, 2001 wasthe year the entire pit, as well as the nation, sobered up quickly.
It’s been said that the psychology of an advancing market is much differ-ent from that of a breaking market. Where the advancing market is infusedwith feelings of euphoria and prosperity, the breaking market is charac-terized by fear and a loss of appetite for risk. In 2001, two very importantthings happened that shook the psychology of the marketplace, one on alocal level and the other on a nation scale. Both events are worthy of havingbooks written about them, but I’ll share with you the way they affected themarket’s psyche and how they changed the lives of many of us who wereinvolved.
The collective consciousness of the market is a very fragile thing thatcan be upset in many different ways. In February 2001, my ﬁlling brokerin the S&P 500 futures pit and very close friend, Bobby Gault, was waiting
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for his family at a cabin they had built on Beaver Island in Lake Michiganbetween the Upper Peninsula and the mainland of Michigan. Gault hadleft early to open up the cabin, which had been secured against the harshMichigan winter. Leaving for work that morning, I heard a story on the newsabout a family on a chartered plane out of Midway airport in Chicago whohad vanished en route to Beaver Island. I wondered whether the Gaultsknew this family.
Before that morning’s meeting with Ed Arana, the CFO, to check onthe ﬁrm’s risk exposure, I received a call from the ﬂoor from Bob Nowak,who had taken over the day-to-day operations of the ﬂoor execution deskwith his partner Steve Bauer. Nowak said, “There’s a problem with Bobby’sfamily!” After a few seconds of silence, I asked, “Were they on the planethat was heading up to Beaver Island?” Nowak said yes. I went numb. Gaultwas a gifted ﬁlling broker, but he had also done wonderful things for me ona personal level and our families had occasionally socialized.
I started shaking and paced the ofﬁce, my mind racing. I made calls tosee if we could ﬂy up to the island or get close enough to help with the searchthat was getting under way. Later, Gault told us that he could see the planewas in trouble as it approached the small Beaver Island airstrip. He ﬁguredthat the pilots were lost and that they had given up their approach, decidingto head to a larger, better-lit airport in Charlevoix, about 30 miles away.Bobby was wrong, however. The plane crashed in the woods a few milesfrom the airport, splitting in two and killing the pilots. Bobby joined thesearch, frantically looking for wreckage or a sign of survivors. At 2 AM, theCoast Guard suspended search and rescue efforts until daybreak becauseof poor visibility. They told Gault there was little chance of ﬁnding survivorsat that point.
Back in Chicago, our thoughts were all with the Gaults. Winter con-ditions made ﬂying difﬁcult and ﬂights to the Charlevoix area had all beencanceled. The news stunned the trading pit. Bobby Gault was a great broker,and he was also one of the most personable members of the CME. Everyoneknew him. In fact, he had met his wife, Mirth, at the CME years earlier whenshe worked in the Eurodollar futures pit. The news of the crash changedthe market psychology for the week. The natural volatility of the marketwas subdued, with traders merely going through the motions.
As a community, the futures pits are competitive but they regard them-selves as a big family. If a trader loses a child or a spouse, the entire pitoffers support to the grieving member. But this was the ﬁrst time we hadcollectively faced a situation where an entire family was lost. Even the mostaggressive traders in the pit reacted to this situation.
In the Commerz ofﬁces, feeling helpless, I tried in vain to get Gault onthe phone to offer my help. He and I had become very close; every day for anentire decade we had lunch together, during which we shared our thoughts
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on family and life. I knew that Mirth and the kids were more important tohim than anything else.
Seeing I was troubled, Ed Arana came into my ofﬁce to ask me whatwas going on. He, too, knew Gault and, as a father of three, felt the impactof the situation. He likewise suggested ﬂying up there, but because of thehorrible weather, all ﬂights to northern Michigan had been canceled. I feltwe simply had to get to Bobby. The entire pit showed its concern. Volumesuffered a big hit that day—events had altered the pit psychology.
And so the community sprang into action. Kenny Johnson, a local andone of the largest liquidity providers in the S&P 500 futures pit, owned ashare in a private jet and volunteered it to get us to the area faster thananything else available. As we prepared to leave for the Midway airport,word came from Michigan that there was a survivor . . . then we heard therewere a couple of survivors. Finally, word came that Mirth and the three kidshad survived, but unfortunately the pilots of the aircraft weren’t so lucky.
Most people in and around the S&P pit felt the same emotions I didduring those few troubling hours—horror and fear that an entire family hadbeen lost, then the exhilaration of knowing they were all safe and backwith Bobby. It was one of the most volatile emotional swings I had everexperienced in my life. The days that followed were ﬁlled with media storiesabout the Gault family and their miraculous survival, but the one thing Iremember most is when Gault and his family visited the trading ﬂoor. Asthe entire CME equity quadrant rose and cheered, Bobby stood in the spotwhere he always conducted his pit brokerage business, holding his youngestson, Alec, high over his head. The crowd cheered even harder. The toughesttraders I knew, people who seemed unable to show emotion, were wipingaway tears as they watched this scene. I’ll never forget it!
PANIC AND FEAR
One thing that many new traders do not understand about the market isthe psychological aspects of trading. The study of the market psyche is adiscipline in and of itself, but you don’t need to be an expert to recognizethe effects. Understanding that the market is driven by basic emotions isthe ﬁrst lesson in market behavior. Understanding what the collective in-vesting public is thinking is a different art, but one that is likewise essentialin learning about market behavior. The Gault family’s experience demon-strates how such an event can change the pit psychology of the market. Inthat case, it was only for a day, but what happens when the entire nationis caught up in the same emotional roller coaster? Many books have beenwritten about the behavior of individuals in terms of market psychology,
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but those who truly understand the nature of the market understand that itis nothing if not dynamic.
The mood of the market can be changed by months of sluggish actionor by a single event. The market can go from a boring, low-volatility sessionto one that is full of price swings and action. It’s been said that those on theﬂoor really work just 10 percent of the time; the other 90 percent of the timeis spent waiting for that 10 percent ﬂurry of activity. Nevertheless, seasonedveterans know that you must remain alert for a change in conditions at alltimes.
It could be argued that events that drive the market in either directionare nothing more than catalysts and not true causes of the action. But re-member, a trader’s job is not to outthink the market; it’s to proﬁt from it!Although it might sound cold, trading is not altruistic. To be a good trader,you must see the market from two distinct perspectives: You must lookat the smaller waves of emotion that drive the intraday volatility, but youmust also always be aware of the much larger megawave of emotions that isdriving the collective investing public. Smaller emotional events that mightdrive the market are such things as the fall of Enron and the impact of theloss of billions of dollars in market cap.
The ancillary effects of the event are much larger. The passing of theSarbanes-Oxley Act, which could end up costing the business communitymillions of dollars, might create an environment that drives business over-seas. This is a difﬁcult subject that will be debated for some time. But everynow and then a particular event changes everything. Such an event hap-pened on September 11, 2001.
9/11
The events of September 11, 2001, will be written about for years to come.But rather than spend time writing about the causes behind the event, Iwill tell you what happened in my world during those difﬁcult days. Manythings happened behind the scenes at the CME, and much of what wasdone, directly or indirectly affected the entire market and the psychologythat pervades it. I think of the event itself as the Kennedy assassination ofour time. Everyone remembers exactly where they were that morning.
If any single event let the entire world know that the days of bull marketinnocence had come to an end, September 11 and its aftermath were it. Infact, the event constitutes a perfect case study of the changing of the col-lective psychology of the marketplace in a single day. No other news eventcaused more market disruption and confusion than that. Understanding theemotional impact of the event is important for anyone trading the markets
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today because much of the market psychology that surrounds today’s trad-ing was caused by 9/11!
For me, September 11 started like any other day with an early trip tothe CME ﬂoor to do CNBC and Bloomberg TV before heading back to theCommerz ofﬁces. I was scheduled for a 9 AM TV appearance to talk about theeconomic releases coming out that morning. As I watched CNBC, I heardMark Haines say something about a plane hitting the World Trade Center. Myﬁrst reaction was to call Vinny and Denny, who were at the Nomura ofﬁcesacross the street from the WTC, at the World Financial Center. I asked themif they could see what was happening and if they were safe. They told methey were ﬁne but it looked as if a trafﬁc copter or something small had hitthe tower. From their angle it was difﬁcult to see the extent of the damagecaused by the ﬁrst plane.
Walking on the upper trading ﬂoor at the Merc, I saw my old friendPeter Yastrow, who had taken a position with Cantor Fitzgerald coveringtheir proprietary traders and brokers. Cantor’s New York ofﬁces were on ahigh ﬂoor in the tower that had been hit, and Peter and his colleagues at thedesk looked concerned. Something was wrong—clerks were wiping awaytears as they left the ﬂoor. When I asked what was happening, I was toldthat the traders and brokers on the other end of the phone in New York hadrealized they were not going to make it and had asked the clerks in Chicagoto say goodbye to their families for them. Imagine being on the phone withpeople who know they’re going to die, and there is nothing you can do!
Although the stock market had not yet opened, the electronic futuresmarket began to break hard. As we watched the TV for details about theﬁrst tower, we all looked on in horror as the second plane hit the othertower. It was at this point that the event became world changing. Peoplesensed the panic. Brokers began yelling that there were other planes in theair not accounted for and that the CME could be a possible target. I urgedeveryone to calm down, and allowed anyone to leave if they wanted to. I sentmy whole crew home and had told everyone associated with my operationthat I would call them with more information as it became available.
I was called to the control center adjacent to the S&P pit to conferwith the New York markets on whether they would open. During the courseof the teleconference, we all turned to the TV as Mark Haines announcedthat the ﬁrst tower had collapsed. With that, it was decided that the stockmarket in New York City would not open and that the CME would close itsfutures market. I immediately called Vinny and Denny in New York. Theyhad fortunately left the building after the second plane had hit. Later theywould tell me that they could see the second plane as it sped along the riverbefore hitting the second tower. At that point they evacuated the WorldFinancial Center and the island of Manhattan.
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Everyone else was vacating the CME ﬂoor, but I felt that I should stay tohelp with any disaster recovery that might be necessary. Aside from beingon the CME board of directors, my responsibilities also included a seat onthe Commerzbank Futures board. The U.S. headquarters for the bank waslocated in the World Financial Center a few ﬂoors above Vinny and Denny.By the time I called, the entire banking division was out of the building andsetting up shop in a warehouse some 25 miles away in New Jersey. I knewthat Frankfurt would ask about the situation and how the exchange wasdealing with the catastrophe.
THE FUTURES INDUSTRY’S FINEST MOMENT
I went up to the ofﬁce of Scott Gordon, who was then chairman, and askedif I could be of any assistance. As it turns out, the CME had sprung intoaction immediately and within hours had prepared a plan to get the NewYork commodities markets up and running on Globex, the CME’s electronicplatform. The hours that followed showed cooperation at its best. Never be-fore had rival exchanges come to each other’s aid! The New York exchangesfaced two large problems: First, it was difﬁcult to physically get humans inand out of lower Manhattan, and second, it was presumed that there wouldbe a liquidity problem. Most of the largest end users of the capital marketsare based in the New York area.
What happened next might be one of the proudest moments of the CMEand the entire industry. At the same time rescuers were searching throughthe rubble for survivors of the carnage in Lower Manhattan, the CME clear-inghouse and technology departments, headed by Phupinder Gill and JimKrause, created, virtually overnight, a system that would allow the New YorkMercantile Exchange and the New York Board of Trade to list their productsand clear them at the CME if necessary. This kind of cooperation amongthe exchanges was unprecedented. Up until this event, the relationship be-tween the various futures exchanges had been much like a sibling rivalry.Never before had one exchange offered the use of its infrastructure to an-other exchange. I watched in amazement as former competitors extendeda helping hand to each other. Although the New York exchanges decided todecline the CME offer, it nevertheless thrust the CME into the limelight asthe exchange that could replicate an entire market overnight if needed—adifﬁcult thing for any competitor to match and something that would notbe forgotten later when the CME would trade as a public company.
Not only did we see cooperation among the different trading ﬂoors, butwe also witnessed a cooperative effort to help clearing operations based in
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the New York area. FCMs offered their back-ofﬁce services to those who hadlost their operations. A good example is the cooperative effort to help CarrFutures, a division of Indo-Suez Bank in France, re-create a back ofﬁceand assist with customer positions. The industry had come together likenever before. The psychology of the market had been changed, but how?The stock market was closed for days, and the reopening of trading broughtforth uneasy feelings of confusion and fear.
A few days later, New York ofﬁcials determined that they would reopenthe stock market. Many of the specialist ﬁrms had relocated to disaster re-covery sites and had regained control and functionality of their trading andorder entry systems. The open of the market was greeted with a big cheerby the trading community, as well as an unexpected phenomenon—lowvolatility. Even though the market was poised to open signiﬁcantly lower,the opening was accompanied by a strange mood of reserved activity. It isnot well known that trading desks of the major proprietary operations wereasked not to be aggressive. In other words, the largest traders, which in-cluded the index arbitrage community, were asked to be patriotic with theirtrading. I had witnessed other events that had brought out the predatoryinstincts in some traders—those hoping to proﬁt from a catastrophe. Thiswas evident, for example, when the space shuttle Challenger crashed andsellers plunged the market and made a fast proﬁt on the national disaster.But this was different. I had never seen the collective psychology of themarket change so dramatically as the result of a single event!
The same traders who were normally sharks were as tame as dolphinsas the ﬁrst day of trading commenced. It was a widely felt that anyone whotried to proﬁt from the attack was simply unpatriotic! The entire countryhad come together like never before in modern history. Even the membersof Congress stood on the steps of the Capitol to symbolize unity during atime of deep national need. The days that followed in the market broughtsubtle price swings, but no one attempted to plunge the market. If we, asstudents of the market, are to learn anything about market psychology fromthe events of September 11 and the days that followed, we must understandwhat happened to market pricing during that period. With hindsight, onething is clear: Whenever there is a terrorist attack (including that of 9/11),it is a wonderful buying opportunity for stocks!
Dealing with the media throughout that experience was very trying. Iwas accustomed to talking about the direction of the market, but I had neverbeen asked to comment on social issues or voice an opinion about currentevents. But now things had changed. Every interview I did on CNBC andBloomberg TV would eventually work its way to asking about the feelingsand thoughts of traders. I started every interview by saying, “Our thoughtsand prayers go out to all our friends in New York,” but that just didn’t seemlike enough. We were trying to get on with our lives, but it was impossible.
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How could we? We would watch the rescue workers digging through therubble on big-screen TVs set up around the ﬂoor and were trying to maintaina focus on the market at the same time.
Emotions were running high, and I knew that anytime I was going toappear in the media I needed to act responsibly and say the appropriatethings. Like everyone else, I too felt angry! I knew people who died inthose towers and wanted to tell the world that I thought these terroristswere nothing more than animals. The Islamic fanatics had hit too close tohome. I couldn’t help but think that the same fanaticism that took downthe towers was responsible for the killing of millions of Armenians (in-cluding 30 members of my family) and other Christians at the hands of theTurks less than a century ago. The same problems that my grandparentshad faced and survived had followed me and my little family to the UnitedStates. But I understood, as the de facto face man for the CME on TV, thatit was my job to make sure I came off as professionally as possible, keep-ing in mind that national security might be at stake. I also knew that I waspartially responsible for setting the tone and mood of those watching thebroadcasts.
The one thing I reiterated in these appearances was the fact that I wasvery proud of my fellow traders and the entire trading community for nottrying to proﬁt from the carnage and confusion that ensued in the wakeof the attacks. Those of us in the ﬁnancial markets industry do not seeourselves as doing something that is meaningful in scope. We aren’t doctorsor nurses and we’re not teachers or social workers, but the way the entireindustry conducted itself during that time made me very proud to say I ama member of the trading community.
EMOTIONS DRIVE THE MARKET
The events that surrounded the stories of Babe, the Gault family, andSeptember 11 reveal how market psychology can be affected at differentlevels. Babe’s story showed the effects on a small group of traders experi-encing an indirect result in the form of a less liquid product for a short periodof time. The Gault family accident showed how a single incident within thetrading community can have a tremendous impact on daily volatility. Andthe events surrounding 9/11 showed market players demonstrating a will-ingness to work together like never before. Each of these different storiesis useful to help traders understand that market psychology is all about thestudy of basic emotions.
These are the basic emotions that drive our daily lives and that must beunderstood for someone to be a great trader. Whether the event in question
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takes place on a single day or consumes a prolonged period of time, gettinga handle on the emotional side of the market as it reacts to the event isa must for every trader. Unlike the arguments that surround random walktheory, basic human passions never change. People will always experiencefear and greed, and it is those two raw human emotions that always drivethe market. The feelings that drove tulip bulb prices to ridiculous levelsin Holland hundreds of years ago are the same basic emotions that morerecently drove tech stocks to unsustainable prices.
Many investors will put capital at risk based on the market psyche.Some of these investors are mistaken for technicians who chart the market,but they are really a kind of market sociologist looking for recurring pat-terns of human emotions that work in cycles. Both euphoria and fear comein waves. It’s up to the individual trader to recognize, much like a surfer,which wave to ride and which wave to let go by. The feelings that surroundedthe rising market—the wealth effect—created an atmosphere of prosperityand happiness worldwide. But as high as the highs of the bull market were,the lows that followed were even lower. The decline in the Nasdaq mar-ket followed by the events of September 11 transformed the euphoria intofear within a year. The wealth effect was now replaced by a global war onterror and the new enemy was the ideology of hate. The fear that becamea part of the investor consciousness has stayed with the marketplace tothis day.
We often hear about a “war premium” being built into pricing. This isespecially true in the crude oil and gold markets. The war premium is, ineffect, the market psychology quantiﬁed. Computer programs have pricedthe emotional aspects of trading and come up with formulas and models todescribe pricing instability. But this emotional pricing creates two problems:First, the technology used in pricing raw human feelings is programmed bya human being, limiting it, by deﬁnition, to the emotions understood bythe creator. Second, technology itself has limitations that must be realized,making the human factor a necessary part of any emotional analysis.
Another reason to understand and study the psychology of the marketis that it gives traders a better understating of themselves as individuals.Traders and investors can better focus on ﬁnding the right opportunity whenthey’re able to identify the psychological factors that are driving prices oneway or another. Traders who get caught up in the feelings of the trade can nolonger be objective in their analyses. To remain disciplined and proﬁtable,it becomes essential to eliminate the surrounding noise. In other words,you must focus on the opportunity at hand rather than the event itself.Understanding the true nature of the raw energy that is responsible forpricing the markets is a never-ending discipline.
As students of the marketplace, we need to observe the way raw emo-tion plays a part in every trade that is made. There should be a certain
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amount of fear and greed associated with every trade you make. It’s ﬁnd-ing the right balance between the two that is essential to becoming a goodtrader. I’m reminded of something Bing once said to me when I ﬁrst startedtrading: Always have a little fear of the market but never lose respect forit. He was trying to teach me to live with the fear while remembering thatthe market can always take me out. Never, ever lose respect, and don’t getcaught up in the greed!
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C H A P T E R 9
DemystifyingEconomicReleases
A few years ago, well before Hurricane Katrina destroyed the city, my
wife and I went to New Orleans for a weekend away without thechildren. Never having been there we were both taken by the won-derful food and the nonstop revelry. Being of a conservative nature, my wifeand I loved the food but found the dedicated debauchery to be somethingthat passed us by years ago. Nonetheless, we decided to go out to BourbonStreet and enjoy the Big Easy, hitting the watering holes and listening togreat jazz along the way. Having found a comfortable club with a crowdthat appeared to be the appropriate age to include us, we agreed to sit andpeople-watch.
As we sat and enjoyed the sights and sounds of New Orleans, a gentle-man walked into the bar in an obvious state of intoxication. He looked to bein his mid-50s and his pants looked like expensive dress slacks that had beencut with a pair of scissors recently. I noticed that he was working his wayaround the bar, talking to every female in the establishment. The ridiculous-looking pants coupled with a glare that would take days of nonstop drinkingto acquire rendered his attempts at ﬁnding female companionship for theevening futile.
As he worked his way through the room, I saw that he had a Rolexwatch on his wrist—and it was real. It had a sweeping second hand (thesign of a real Rolex) and was laced with diamonds all across the face. Itwas a beautiful timepiece worth well over $25,000 but one that you wouldnot expect to see on such an individual. After being rebuffed by half thewomen there, he spotted my wife and me sitting on the other side of theroom. He staggered toward us, and as he did, I looked at my wife and said
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with a