1996 low withouthaving exceeded the Jan. 1997 high.
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Crude (March)Resistance (5/20L): 25.36-25.7625.35:W.5 = 162%W.425.76:W.5 = 61.8%W.1-3Support (1/9H): 23.67, 22.76. 21.80-21.70, 20.74
Jan. 9 probably completed a wave-five top. The minimum objective for the decline from theJan. 9 high is the 21.80-21.70 zone which Includes the 50% retracement of the five waveadvance and the low of wave-four.
Did March crude reach the 21.80-21.70 support zone as anticipated?
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Follow-up To The Crude Analysis Of The Feb. 1997 ReportTwo months later, crude reached 2150, just a few ticks beyond the minimumprojection for a corrective decline to the five wave advance.
Why was the projection made for a decline to at least the 21.80-20.70 supportzone? Corrections to five wave advances (declines) usually reach at or near the priorWave-4 low (high). Corrections to five wave advances (declines) usually reach atleast the 38.2%-50% retracernent of the five wave advance (decline). In the case ofcrude, the 50% retracement coincided with the Wave-4 low.While crude may continue lower, the important factor is that in early Feb., withcrude at 24.00, the price and pattern position strongly indicated a continued decline toat least 21.80. That's information traders can take advantage of.
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Orange Juice, Nov. - No Chart Aug. 26 appears to be the completion of wave-3 of a potential five wave advancefrom The July 23 low. The current decline should not exceed a close below 116.60 (Sept.) or 111.30 (Nov.) if thelarger degree trend is bullish as anticipated. The protective sell-stop on the long position of 118.15 (Sept. contract)adjusted in the Thursday mid-week report was elected Friday, stopping out the long position for a $405 profit.Intermediate Term Traders: As long as Nov. OJ has not closed below 111.30 (116.60, Sept), buy Nov. OJ any daynext week on the close If the close is above the current day's open and the prior day's close. Place the initialprotective sell-slop at 111.20.
The Aug. 31, 1996 issue of the weekly report included a potential trade set-up for OJ.No chart was included with the commentary. The table shows the most recent traderecommendation for OJ at the time of the report.Below is a chart for this period. Why was the trade set-up for a long position voidedwith a close below 116.60 (Sept contract}? That would be a dose below the Wave-1closing high which would void the impulsive wave count as shown below. Two days afterthe report, OJ dosed below 116.60 on the Sept. contract and 111.30 on the Nov. contractwhich voided the trade-entry strategy. Trade market behavior, not forecasts.
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Copper (March)
Resistance (9/12L):106.00-110.50Support (2/13H):106.11-104.14Thursday's signal-day reversal appears to have completed the final minor five-wave advance neededto complete the larger decree five-wave advances. While a new intraday high was made, a newclosing high was not. Thursday's high also tagged the parallel channel resistance line projected fromthe W.3 high.Short and Intermediate Term Traders: As long as copper has not traded above 110.50 (Feb. 13 high),sell copper on the close if the close is below the current day's open and prior day's close. Place theprotective buy stop at 110.25.
In Feb. 1997, copper appeared to be completing a major five wave advance fromthe June 1996 low. The outlook in the Feb, 15,1997 weekly report shown above wasthat Feb. 13 completed the final, minor five wave advance. Everything seemed to bein place for a major top and a great short trade opportunity.
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Follow-up On Copper To The Feb. 15,1997 ReportThe Feb. 13 signal-day high looked like a perfect set-up to prepare for a shorttrade. The copper market did not agree. It immediately gapped up to new highsand continued to rally. The short trade recommendation was never filled as copperdid not make a close below the open prior to rallying above the 110.20 high.Trading strategies prevented a losing trade.If a short trade had been taken on the close of the Feb. 13 signal-day, the stopwould have been placed at one tick above the Feb. 13 high. The short position wouldhave been stopped out three trading days later on the gap opening for a lose. Lossescan never be eliminated, but they can be minimized by logical protective stop-lossplacement. In this case, the gap-signal-day reversal was invalidated as soon as thehigh of the day was exceeded.
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Robert Miner's DYNAMIC TRADER WEEKLY FAX REPORT- March 1. 1991 - Page 5 of 10Trading Strategies and Recommendations For The Week Of March 3-7
Gold (April)Support (2/28H): 358.7Resistance (2/12L): 364.4-366.6, 370.4, 379.0Gold has provided another signal of a major trend change to bullish by closing above the prior swinghigh of 359.7. The current rally appears to be completing a minor W.5 signaling a minor top is due soonfollowed by a correction to the advance from Feb. 12. The current rally has reached the Ideal priceobjective for a minor wave-five of 364.4-365.6 where W.5=100% W.1 and 61.8% W.1-3. This price zonealso includes the 50% retracement from the Nov. high.The ideal time to initiate intermediate term positions is on the correction to an initial advance. Itappears gold should be near the top of an initial advance. If 38%+ correction follows, it will be the idealopportunity to initiate intermediate term long positions.Last Week's Trading Activity: No new trades last week.Short Term Traders (L-345.30, 2/13: Adjust the protective sell stop 10 359.7 one tick below Friday's low.Almost all of Friday's advance took place in the last 30 minutes of trading. A lack of follow through to thisbuying spree signals a temporary top and the completion of the minor five wave advance is probablycomplete.
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Follow-up Comments On Gold To The March 1,1997 ReportA long trade recommendation from a prior report was filled on Feb. 13, one dayfollowing the wide-range, outside-day low. Gold rallied straight up to the idealprice projection to complete a minor five wave advance. The protective sell-stopon the long position was adjusted to one tick below the low of the last bar shownon the chart on the previous page (Feb. 28 low).The next trading day, March 3, was a key-reversal-day. This was an ideal signalfor a stop-and-reverse to a short position. The nature of a weekly report could not takeadvantage of this timely signal. The protective sell-stop at 359.7, one tick below theFeb. 28 low, was elected two days later on the gap-down open of 357.6 for a profit of$1230.
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