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The retail houses had fallen on hard times, as a contraction in com-missions had left the smaller FCMs in a difﬁcult position. During this time,consolidation among the smaller houses became a necessity to survive. Theonly revenue stream that seemed to remain intact was the interest incomethat sat in customer accounts. Another of the best-kept secrets in the in-dustry is that interest income from customer accounts is a major source ofrevenue to the bottom line. The world was about to change for the FCMs,and the e-mini was the catalyst for that change.
THE E-MINI CONCEPT GROWS
The growing success of the S&P 500 e-mini led to the creation of the Nasdaqe-mini contract in June 1999. The proliferation of the concept had propelledthe Chicago markets into the global limelight. Prior to this, the CME hadbeen a global player with the establishment of Forex and Eurodollar futures,but taking the industry into an entirely new direction turned the exchangeinto the globally dominant player that it is today. My responsibility as thechairman of the equity index committee was to work through the politicalproblems created by the new concept among the ﬂoor traders and brokers.One of the problems seemed to center around the fact that the FCMcommunity wanted a quick proliferation of the e-mini products. The ﬂoorfelt as if there had been an attack on the open outcry system and resistedsome of the changes being presented to the membership. Retail brokersand salespeople became excited about the prospect of electronically tradedproducts across the equity sectors. The need to quickly roll out products inthe other sectors of the stock market became clear as the world watched theNasdaq market pass 2000, then 3000. The higher the index went, the moreunmanageable the contract became. The daily standard deviation (the dailymovement of the market) made margins outrageous and left many of theexecuting brokers on the ﬂoor in a position where the risk of executing acustomer order became cost prohibitive.
The growing volume of the electronic market took the arbitrage worldby storm. In the beginning, the statistical arbitrageurs were able to auto-mate their models so that they could participate in numerous markets. Irealized the growing power of the technology on my visit to the CooperNeff/BNP traders, who had been my largest customers in the smaller equitycontracts. Prior to the birth of the e-mini, Scott Weisblum had taken theCooper Neff/BNP proprietary trading desk to being the largest user of theNasdaq, Russell, and midcap contracts.
Upon entering the new trading room built for Weisblum in New YorkCity, I was struck by the fact that the fully automated system allowed traders
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the freedom to do so many other things. During our lunch, the system tradedmore contracts electronically than I had ever seen Weisblum trade in a fullday in an open outcry environment. This was a revelation! If they could tradewith that kind of frequency while the concept was still in its infancy, imaginewhat they would be capable of doing if the concept ever reached maturation.I remember returning to Chicago with an entirely new vision of what theproliferation of the electronic market really meant. For the ﬁrst time, Ifully understood what Leo Melamed had said in one of the earlier meetingsabout the e-mini: Let technology lead! It was the technology geniuses of theproprietary trading ﬁrms who embraced the concept of automation in orderto create a true electronic edge for their traders.
What had started as a way to compete with the CBOT in its landing ofthe Dow Jones contract turned into a revolution for the entire industry. Inmy reports to the brass at Commerzbank (the parent of Commerz Futures),the electronic volume was the most important statistic requested. The bankhad come to the conclusion—as had most European institutions—that theopen outcry system was becoming obsolete and must be abandoned so themarkets could grow.
THE GREAT EQUALIZER
In early 2001, I was invited to an award dinner at the Conrad Hilton andTowers in Chicago, at which Leo Melamed would be honored by the Anti-Defamation League of Chicago. The guest speaker was the former senatorfrom Illinois Paul Simon, who was also a sitting member of the CME boardof directors. The senator had become a close friend during the few yearswe spent on the board together. In fact, after the ﬁrst meeting he attendedhe took me aside and, insisting that I call him Paul, asked, “Jack, are youby any chance Armenian?” As I said yes, I saw the smile appear on his face.He had had an Armenian roommate during his college days and had alwayskept his love for the Armenian people and culture.
He had been to Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, many times and wasknowledgeable about the country’s politics and problems with neighboringAzerbaijan. For years after our ﬁrst meeting, Paul would send me articlesabout Armenia or come across a picture of me in a local paper, which hewould send to me with a note asking if I had paid for the publicity. Duringone of our pre–board meeting talks, I told him that, being a Republican, Ihad never voted for him. But after getting to know him, I regret, with all myheart, not supporting him. I will always cherish the relationship I had withSenator Simon and miss him very much since he passed away a couple ofyears ago.
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Knowing that Leo Melamed is a wonderful orator, I was expecting some-thing special as he took the podium to accept the award, and I wasn’t dis-appointed. After thanking those responsible for the evening, he turned tohis favorite subject—the market. His speech was ﬁlled with great insightsabout the industry, but the one line that galvanized the audience was whenhe referred to the markets as “the great equalizer.”
His words were a revelation! I had always struggled to ﬁnd the rightwords to describe the market experience, but it was Leo’s speech that put itall into perspective. In essence, what he was trying to convey in the speech isthat the market doesn’t discriminate; if you’re right the market, then you’rea good trader. It doesn’t matter what religion or nationality you might be, theonly thing that matters in trading is the ability to take the information at handand turn it into a proﬁtable trade. That is how the market measures success.The speech was prophetic in that it was a glimpse of the market conditionthat was about to be changed by the growing volume and penetration of thee-mini.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE EDGE?
The world was about to change, and the CME was at the forefront of therevolution. But as the electronically traded products became more and morepopular, the ﬂoor community began to see a signiﬁcant shift in the volumetraded in the open outcry session. The noticeable change in activity sentmany of the old-time members into a panic, as the dynamic nature of thenew market forced them to change their trading style. No longer would theybe in the pit looking for the edge that came to them naturally through thegeography of the open outcry session. The edge had become as dynamic asthe rest of the market.
What followed in the electronically traded products was a migrationof the edge to the screen. What was at one time a geographical edge hadmorphed into a technological edge. Traders were no longer talking abouttheir spot in the pit but, rather, how to make their electronic trading systemsmilliseconds faster. The general public does not realize the displacementthat occurs every time a pit-traded product is migrated to the screen. Thethousands of jobs on the ﬂoor have been replaced by thousands of jobsoff the ﬂoor, but not every ﬂoor employee or trader can ﬂourish in an ofﬁceenvironment.
Even today, with most of the notional value of the S&P 500 futurescontract traded electronically through the e-mini, traders are seen in theopen outcry pit trading in what has become a secondary market to thescreen. The fact that the larger contract trades in smaller increments of
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10 points per tick as opposed to the e-mini, which trades in 25-point in-crements, gives those still trading on the ﬂoor a small chance to create anarbitrage opportunity between the two contracts.
Although the spread between the two contracts has narrowed consid-erably since the inception of the e-mini, there is enough customer orderﬂow coming into the pit for a few traders to prosper. It became apparentto many members that their way of doing business was quickly comingto an end. Leo’s words prophesied the change. The market had become thegreat equalizer—it was, and continues to be, the ﬁnest example of economicDarwinism in our time. Only the strong—or in this case, the best—will sur-vive the changing landscape.
But as the CME was going through a metamorphosis, so was the busi-ness I was trying to run at Commerz Futures. During the infancy of thee-mini concept, the board made a very important change to the clearing-house rules. The rule change created a limited liability on the part of thecollective clearing members as opposed to a “good to the last drop” policy,which was the custom. “Good to the last drop” implied that if there was adefault, then the clearing members would collectively make up the balanceneeded in order to maintain the market and exchange. This required ev-ery large institution to create a subsidiary that would act as a buffer in theevent of a major calamity. The reality is that if the CME called and asked for$100 million because Morgan was in default, my ﬁrst call as the presidentof Commerz Futures would be to the bank’s lawyer, not the treasurer!
The limited liability allowed the FCM community two very importantefﬁciencies: First, it created the necessary ﬁnancial buffer in a way thatmade sense to the ﬁnancial institutions facing the ﬁduciary responsibility ofinvestors. Second, it allowed the ﬁrms such as Commerz Futures the luxuryof repatriating the capital that was put up for the sub and bringing it backto a more efﬁcient use by the parent institution. Because of the change inthe clearing structure and the growing electronic markets in Chicago, I wascalled to Frankfurt to give a presentation to the bank’s board of directors.I arrived in Frankfurt on May 1, 2001. Being in a state of sleep deprivationcaused by jet lag, I didn’t notice the security forces lining the streets as thetaxi took me to my hotel. I was booked at the Frankfurter House, directlyacross the street from the Commerzbank tower in the heart of Frankfurt.After unpacking and taking a light hour-long nap, I ventured outside toexperience what I thought to be European Labor Day. But rather than aday of picnics with hot dogs and coleslaw, as we would see in the UnitedStates, May Day in European countries is often a day of demonstrations bythe working class that are attended by the police. My ﬁrst day in Germanywas witness to a bloody riot between Turkish workers and German securityforces. I stood in shock, trying in vain to understand the reason, as I watchedthe two groups beat each other bloody with sticks and clubs.
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The following day was the presentation to board members who wouldbe responsible for the capital needs of the subsidiary of which I was thepresident. The bank’s boardroom is a grand, open space with magniﬁcentﬂoor-to-ceiling windows showcasing the city of Frankfurt from every view.As I began my presentation, I quickly realized that the board members hadshort attention spans and it was imperative that I work quickly. I went overa PowerPoint that showed the rule change and the fact that capital couldbe repatriated to Frankfurt. After I had spoken for 15 minutes, a vote wastaken. No objections were raised, and the measure was passed. One of theboard members, an older gentleman from Austria, said, “Very good, Jack.You’re Armenian, right? You know what we say about Armenians in Austria?There’s nothing worse than an Armenian Jew! Oh, but this is because of yournegotiating power, of course.” Confused, I didn’t know whether to tell himI wasn’t Jewish or throw my pen at his head. Back home, where I havea great number of Jewish friends, being called an Armenian Jew wouldusually be complimentary. But hearing it said with such disdain by thisAustrian gentleman who had survived the Second World War put thingsinto perspective. As strange as it sounds, all I can remember as I went to myhotel room that evening is thinking about my grandparents and their storiesof surviving the Turkish atrocities.
The other reason I was in Germany was to spread the word about thenew electronic markets in Chicago. As part owner of Eurex, the Com-merzbank community was very familiar with the concept of electronictrading. In fact, it was the Bund traders at Commerz who were partiallyresponsible for the forced migration of liquidity from the LIFFE to Eurexfor the Bund contract. But everyone seemed to be excited about trading thestock indexes electronically. It didn’t take long to realize that the S&P 500,along with the other stock indexes traded on Globex, are the most thrillingaction online. A needed rule change by the German regulators allowed theretail public to open accounts without the regulatory ambiguity that hadsurrounded the procedure previously.
The number of new accounts began with a trickle but soon started tocome in waves. Introducing brokers in Munich and Hamburg started to ﬁndhuge success with traders in remote regions of the German countrysidewho had never been exposed to the capital markets before but found anexciting hobby in electronic trading. I met with many members of the bank’stechnology department, who listened intently as I explained the upgradesto the trading systems in the CME’s matching engine.
It was the techies who really understood the true power of the elec-tronic marketplace. They grasped that automating trading strategies wouldallow the trader to multitask and become more efﬁcient. The bottom linewas that the introduction of electronic platforms gave the bank two veryimportant things: It gave the bank the ability to monitor traders in a way
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never before imagined, which was a necessity after the Barings debacle,and it gave the bank a much more efﬁcient use of its capital. Simply put,electronic markets allow the institution to get the most out of its tradersrather than having them concentrate on a single market.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PIT?
Returning to Chicago, it was clear that the status quo in the pit was changingas the liquidity became divided between the open outcry and the electronicplatforms. As the open interest in the S&P and Nasdaq futures contractsbegan to grow in the e-mini products, the daily sessions were beginningto suffer. The prized real estate of the pit was becoming an open spacewith room to roam. Only ﬁve years earlier, heated debates had raged aboutthe space in the pit, especially when locations and brokerage businesseswere sold between members. Merton Miller, a former board member andNobel laureate, was fond of saying that the exchange should auction off thelocations in the pit as they would seats on the exchange. It seemed crazy tomost of the other board members, but, in hindsight, it would probably havebeen the smartest way to handle the situation.
Mert was a wonderful man and a marvelous academic. He had degreesfrom Harvard and Johns Hopkins and was a professor at the University ofChicago Graduate School of Business, where he received the Nobel prizein economics. Mert always took the time to talk to me when he saw me atthe opera or a social event around the city, introducing me as his colleagueon the CME board. There are very few things in this world that have mademe prouder than hearing Merton Miller call me his colleague. Merton diedin the summer of 2000, and we all miss him greatly.
I had become friendly with Mert when he asked me to help stop whathe referred to as the “abomination which is rule 80-A.” Rule 80-A cut off theindex arbitrageurs when the Dow Jones industrial Average went up or down50 points. As the stock market raced higher and higher, the 50-point collarbecame an obstacle to futures growth. At its inception, Mert had called therule “anti-futures”—and he was absolutely correct.
This rule stopped the natural order ﬂow coming from the arbs, and theabsence of their liquidity began to affect the market condition. As chairmanof the equity index committee, I called upon my friends at Cooper Neff,who had expressed a desire to help, along with Vinny and Denny to assistme in coming up with the proper arguments to present to the NYSE. It wasno secret that the NYSE specialists had no love for the arbs, which theyconsidered parasitic. In fact, upon meeting NYSE chairman Dick Grasso inthe CME elevator, I asked him if they were going to do something about
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the 50-point collar. He snapped back, “Yeah, we’re going to change it to 25!”Fortunately, policy makers came to their senses and realized that eliminat-ing the arbs from the trade has the opposite effect of the rule’s intendedpurpose.
As Mert had prophesied years earlier, the collar eliminates a necessaryportion of the liquidity equation, leading to increased volatility. Instead ofacting as a circuit breaker, the collar was making the market even less liquidand thus more susceptible to panic selling.
MARKET TRANSPARENCY
What was happening to the pit? That was the question most asked by tradersas I walked the exchange ﬂoor. Even though there seemed to be order ﬂowin the open outcry session, the orders were larger and chunkier than before.In other words, the smaller orders that fed the local community began towork their way onto the screen, leaving the larger institutional orders for thetraders to live on. It was obvious that we were in the midst of an evolutionarystate. I was watching the market morph before my very eyes. What had beenan open outcry market was quickly turning into an electronic market withan open outcry pit of liquidity.
The real secret is that the edge has left the pit. In fact, the lack ofinformation on the ﬂoor puts the local at a severe disadvantage to the traderoff the ﬂoor. This has put the traditional local in a state of ﬂux, forcing manylongtime members to do some serious soul-searching as to whether they’retraders or are lucky enough to have a great spot to scalp in the pit. Forthose who feel they are true traders, the transition is relatively smooth, witha short learning curve. It’s the traditional scalper who ﬁnds the transitiondifﬁcult. The energy needed to be a good scalper has no place in the world ofelectronic trading. The mantra for the membership became “Change yourapproach and embrace the electronic platform—or cease to be a marketparticipant!”
The membership wasn’t the only group that was forced to change. TheFCM community was in the middle of the evolutionary trend, leaving manyin the industry wondering if there was a future in futures. It was during thisperiod that many of the old-time brokerage houses began to lay off ﬂoorpersonal and consolidate their operations out of the New York ofﬁces. Thepresident of the CME at the time, Jim McNulty, had proposed a plan thatwould essentially close down the ﬂoor within a ﬁve-year period. Many onthe board, including myself, thought that a forced migration would not beas effective as a market-driven solution. As an ofﬁcer of Commerz Futures,I had to try to give my customers the most liquid products available, but it
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was at a steep cost. The FCMs were forced to offer two different platformsto their customers.
The traditional open outcry platform involved order desks, brokers,and processing, and the new electronic platform had inherent risk controlsbuilt into the technology and could be easily distributed to the masses. Iquickly began to change the business plan for Commerz Futures, which puta greater emphasis on selling electronically traded products as opposedto the old-style pit-traded markets. It became apparent to me that certainsegments of the end-user community, the institutions, did not want to usethe smaller version of the S&P 500 but that the retail customer was in lovewith the concept.
For years, as the stock market moved to new highs, the margins onthe stock index futures contracts grew to unmanageable levels. Margins, orperformance bonds, are calculated by the volatile condition of the market.The higher the volatility, the higher the margin; the lower the volatility,the lower the margin. This is why an S&P contract worth $250,000 canhave a margin 10 times that of a Eurodollar futures contract, which hasa $1 million face value. The stock market is much more volatile than theﬁxed-income market; therefore, a larger ﬁnancial buffer is needed betweenthe customers and the clearinghouse. As these performance bonds grewlarger and larger, retail customers began to shy away from the products. Itwasn’t only the large haircut involved (a haircut is the amount of capitalneeded to hold a position), but the retail brokers realized they were betteroff putting clients into positions that were not so capital intensive. Thee-mini changed all that. The market was becoming a two-tiered marketplacewith the large institutional orders still coming into the open outcry arenaand the small retail orders ﬂowing through the electronic platforms. Thiswas a hidden blessing for the FCMs, which had been struggling for years,ﬁghting regulators and contracting commissions. The economies of scalenow allowed the FCMs to distribute the products and services with riskmanagement controls built right into the functionality. It was now possiblefor a futures company to open and monitor 10 times the number of accountswith the same number of brokers and employees.
A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD
But what was a gold mine for a certain segment of the exchangepopulation—the FCMs—was a disaster for others. Locals who had madea living standing in front of brokers whose orders included the small retailcustomer base began to disappear. The same traders who were taking down100 contracts at a time now found that their skills as market makers were no
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longer necessary. It was easy to understand; the smaller order ﬂow that isdirected by the brokerage community was taken to the electronic platformbecause of the increased proﬁt margin on commissions and the added riskmanagement controls.
Prior to the adoption of the electronic platforms, futures brokers hadto carefully monitor every retail account so that they did not cause a debit.In the futures industry, the registered broker is the ﬁrst line of defense inthe event a customer goes debit. The FCM is the second line of defense,and the exchange is the ﬁnal guarantor of all trades that take place withinthe CME’s universe. As the number of retail account openings accelerated,the number of small orders coming into the pit grew smaller and smaller. Thepit community began to dwindle. During the years from 2000 to 2004 overhalf of the market makers left. These were the same traders who populatedthe S&P pit right from its inception at the old CME at 444 W. Jackson backin 1982, and they now had been forced out by the computer.
As we look back on the past few years, the rapid growth and the appetitefor electronically traded products seems amazing. But as much as we wouldlike to think that Chicago is the center of the universe, we quickly realizethat the growth of our markets is part of the growing global landscapeof trading and investing. When I was in Germany during the early part of2001 I could see that the average European investor was underweighted inequities. This was done purposely because of the nationalized pensions andan entrenched middle management bureaucracy.
Once the rules governing the pensions changed, capital began to ﬂowfrom all corners of the Euro zone, which coincided with a weaker dollar,making U.S. equities an even greater value. But as large as I felt the Europeancustomer base would be, it’s nothing compared to the possibilities that cancome from Asia. The order ﬂow from Asia, and in particular China, will, in5 to 10 years, dwarf what is coming out of any other time zone.
Who could have known that the fact that the CBOT landed the DowJones futures contract would be the catalyst for one of the greatest changesthe futures industry has ever experienced. Recall Leo Melamed’s words:“Behind every disappointment lies a gem of opportunity.” He gave us hisvision of the futures industry years ahead of time in the last chapter of hisbook Escape to the Futures in 1996. His dreams became our reality. Leohas been a statesman, a great market philosopher, a successful trader, thegreatest innovator in CME history—and now he can be called the Prophetof Wacker Drive.
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C H A P T E R 6
TechnicalAnalysisThe Tools of the Trade
I n the mid-1990s, when I was building up my ﬂoor brokerage business
around the equity pits of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Iused to maintain my own charts on the markets. I would constantly takethe daily high, low, and settlement of the market, desperately searchingfor a recognizable pattern that would generate a high-percentage tradingopportunity. I felt that the technical analysis would be a value-added serviceto my clients. The art of charting the markets has had a long history. There isa multitude of ways to chart the price action of the market, and the variationson the methods are as numerous as the books found in the business sectionof any bookstore.
As a trader, I felt that it was important for me to know the support andresistance levels that the rest of the participants had so that I could keep upwith the crowd. Support and resistance levels become important for variousreasons, the most important being that the rest of the trading communityis looking at the exact same chart, which gives a majority of chartists thesame levels.
One day as I was updating my technical work at my home ofﬁce, myseven-year-old son came into the room to observe the work I was doing. Hewas aware of my profession in the markets and had come down to view theaction in the visitor’s gallery of the CME with his mother and sister manytimes. He had grasped the concept of being short the market at an earlyage. He understood that it was possible to sell something without owning itﬁrst. As he stood watching me, he asked questions about what I was doingand the charts I was updating. I told him that I was looking at the Nasdaq
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futures market, an index made up of the tech companies such as the onethat makes the computer we were looking at.
I explained to him that I was looking for resistance so that I could sellthe market and establish a short position. I told him that I was to sell themarket if it reached a certain level; if that didn’t work I would buy it backand try selling it at another level higher. After a few seconds of silence helooked at me and looked at the chart in front of both of us and said, “Dad,why are you selling it? That’s stupid. The market is going up!” I immediatelylaughed and thought how cute it was for my little boy to have an opinion ofthe market. As he left the room I found myself staring at the Nasdaq chartand then it hit me—like a brick in the forehead—that my son was absolutelyright! Why would I want to sell the market when the path of least resistanceis up? It suddenly dawned on me that I might have the right information,but I wasn’t using it properly.
DOES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REALLY WORK?
One of the biggest problems that new traders face is the avalanche of mate-rial on technical analysis that they feel compelled to read and understand.The average trader ﬁnds one or two technical disciplines that they feel givethem the best read on the market. There are many different ways to chartthe market. There are the Gann methodology, the Elliott Wave Theory, andcountless other proven strategies. Every one of these technical forms hashad books written and rewritten about the credibility of the discipline. Youcan create a point-and-ﬁgure chart that takes only price action into account.There are time charts that give the observer an idea of the movement of themarket at various times in the trading session. You can look at the relativestrength of the market by ﬁnding moving averages that guide traders alongthe path of least resistance. Finding the proper form of technical analysisas a trader is much like ﬁnding the right pair of shoes—what looks good toyou might not be right for everyone.
Often when I sit on a panel discussing technical analysis, I am amazed bythe lack of depth on the part of the participants. One memorable day, I foundmyself between an “expert” on Japanese candlestick charting methods anda new astrological technician who called the market by the placement ofthe stars. I thought it rather ironic considering that I couldn’t care less aboutastrology and have always considered the candlestick method of charting tobe more artistic than practical. After hearing the two experienced speakerstalk about their respective strategies, it was my turn to tell the 200 audiencemembers the truth they so desperately came to hear.
I began my talk by asking the audience to forget everything they hadjust heard. A stunned crowd looked at me as if they couldn’t believe whatI had just said. As I looked around me, I could see that my fellow panelists
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were also a bit perturbed at the comment. I thought it was important forsomeone to give the audience a sense of the fundamental aspect of themarkets.