<s> SEP 28 2991
TRADING FORA LIVING
 WILEY FINANCE EDITIONS
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSISMartin S. Fridson
DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATIONDavid A. Hammer
INTERMARKET TECHNICAL ANALYSISJohn J. Murphy
INVESTING IN INTANGIBLE ASSETSRussell L. Parr
FORECASTING FINANCIAL MARKETSTony Plummer
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT FORMULASRalph Vince
TRADING AND INVESTING IN BOND OPTIONSM. Anthony Wong
THE COMPLETE GUIDE TO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES WORLDWIDELaura A. Zubulake
MANAGED FUTURES IN THE INSTITUTIONAL PORTFOLIOCharles B. Epstein, Editor
ANALYZING AND FORECASTING FUTURES PRICESAnthony F, Herbst
CHAOS AND ORDER IN THE CAPITAL MARKETSEdgar E. Peters
INSIDE THE FINANCIAL FUTURES MARKETS, 3RD EDITIONMark J. Powers and Mark G. Castelino
RELATIVE DIVIDEND YIELDAnthony E. Spare
SELLING SHORTJoseph A. Walker
TREASURY OPERATIONS AND THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE CHALLENGEDimitris N. Chorafas
THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND MONEY MARKETS GUIDEJulian Walmsley
CORPORATE FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENTDiane B. Wunnicke, David R. Wilson, Brooke Wunnicke
MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR FUTURES TRADERSNauzer J. Balsara
THE MATHEMATICS OF MONEY MANAGEMENTRalph Vince
THE NEW TECHNOLOGY OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENTDimitris N. Chorafas
THE DAY TRADER’S MANUALWilliam F. Eng
OPTION MARKET MAKINGAllen J. Baird
TRADER VIC H: PRINCIPLES OF MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECASTINGVictor Sperandeo with T. Sullivan Brown
TRADING FOR A LIVING
. Dr. Alexander Elder
STUDY GUIDE FOR TRADING FOR A LIVING
Dr. Alexander ElderTRADING FORA LIVING
PsychologyTradingTacticsMoney Management
 
Dr. Alexander ElderDirectorFinancial Trading Seminars, Inc.
®
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.New York ¢ Chichester ¢ Brisbane * Toronto « SingaporeCompuTrac™ is a trademark of CompuTrac Software Inc.PageMaker® is a registered trademark of Aldus Corporation.
In recognition of the importance of preserving what has been written, it is a policyof John Wiley & Sons, Inc., to have books of enduring value printed on acid-freepaper, and we exert our best efforts to that end.
Copyright © 1993 by Dr. Alexander ElderPublished by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
All rights reserved. Published simultaneously in Canada.
Reproduction or translation of any part of this work beyond that permitted bySection 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permissionof the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further informationshould be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information inregard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the pub-lisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. Iflegal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent pro-fessional person should be sought. From a Declaration of Principles jointlyadopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee ofPublishers.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Elder, AlexanderTrading for a living : psychology, trading tactics, money
management / Alexander Elder.
. em.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-471-59224-2
1. Stocks. 2. Futures. 3. Options (Futures) I. Title.HG4661.E43 199232.6475 —dc20 92-35165
Printed in the United States of America10 9To Lou Taylor —a trader, a wise man, a true friendContents
 
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12.13.14,
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Introduction
. Trading — The Last Frontier. Psychology Is the Key. The Odds Against You
Individual Psychology
Why Trade?
Fantasy versus RealityMarket GurusSelf-DestructivenessTrading PsychologyTrading Lessons from AALosers AnonymousWinners and Losers
Mass Psychology
What Is Price?
What Is the Market?
The Trading Scene
. The Market Crowd and YouPsychology of Trends
. Managing versus Forecasting
Awe =
viiviii CONTENTS
TI Classical Chart Analysis 6918. Charting 6919. Support and Resistance : 7520. Trend and Trading Range 8021. Trendlines 8722. Gaps ' 9523. Chart Patterns 101IV Computerized Technical Analysis 11524. Computers in Trading 11525. Moving Averages 12026. Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) and MACD-Histogram 12727. The Directional System 13528. Momentum, Rate of Change, and Smoothed Rate of Change 14229, Williams %R 15130. Stochastic 15631. Relative Strength Index 162_-?V_ The Neglected Essentials 16732. Volume 16733. Volume-Based Indicators 17234. Open Interest 17835. Herrick Payoff Index 18336. Time 187VI Stock Market Indicators 19437. New High-New Low Index 19438. Traders’ Index and Other Stock Market Indicators 201VII Psychological Indicators 20939. Consensus Indicators 209
40. Commitment Indicators 215CONTENTS
VIII New Indicators41. Elder-ray
42. Force Index
IX Trading Systems
43. Triple Screen Trading System&—44. Parabolic Trading System45. Channel Trading Systems
X Risk Management46. Emotions and Probabilities47. Money Management48. Exiting TradesAfterwordAcknowledgments
Sources
Index
220220227235
235244247
254254257263269271275
279TRADING FORA LIVINGIntroduction
 
1. TRADING—THE LAST FRONTIER
You can be free. You can live and work anywhere in the world. You can beindependent from routine and not answer to anybody.
This is the life of a successful trader.
Many aspire to this but few succeed. An amateur looks at a quote screenand sees millions of dollars sparkle in front of his face. He reaches for themoney — and loses. He reaches again — and loses more. Traders lose becausethe game is hard, or out of ignorance, or lack of discipline. If any of these ailyou, I wrote this book for you.
How | Began to Trade
In the summer of 1976, I drove from New York to California. I threw a fewbooks on psychiatry (I was a first-year psychiatric resident), several histo-ries, and a paperback copy of Engel’s How to Buy Stocks into the trunk ofmy old Dodge. Little did I know that a dog-eared paperback, borrowed froma lawyer friend, would in due time change the course of my life. That friend,incidentally, had a perfect reverse golden touch — any investment he touchedwent under water. But that’s another story.
I gulped down the Engel book in campgrounds across America, finishingit on a Pacific beach in La Jolla. 1 had known nothing about the stock mar-ket, and the idea of making money by thinking gripped me.
I had grown up in the Soviet Union in the days when it was, in the wordsof a former U.S. president, “an evil empire.” I hated the Soviet system andwanted to get out, but emigration was forbidden. I entered college at 16,graduated medical school at 22, completed my residency, and then took a job2 INTRODUCTION
as a ship’s doctor. Now I could break free! I jumped the Soviet ship inAbidjan, Ivory Coast.
I ran to the U.S. Embassy through the clogged dusty streets of an Africanport city, chased by my ex-crewmates. The bureaucrats at the embassy fum-bled and almost handed me back to the Soviets. I resisted, and they put me ina “safe house” and then on a plane to New York. I landed at KennedyAirport in February 1974, arriving from Africa with summer clothes on myback and $25 in my pocket. I spoke some English, but did not know a soul inthis country.
I had no idea what stocks, bonds, futures, or options were and sometimesgot a queasy feeling just from looking at the American dollar bills in mywallet. In the old country, a handful of them could buy you three years inSiberia.
Reading How to Buy Stocks opened a whole new world for me. Returningto New York, I bought my first stock --it was KinderCare. Ever since then, Ihave avidly studied the markets and invested and traded stocks, options, andnow mostly futures.
My professional career proceeded on a separate track. I completed a resi-dency in psychiatry at a major university hospital, studied at the New YorkPsychoanalytic Institute, and served as book editor for the largest psychiatricnewspaper in the United States. These days, I am busy trading and go to mypsychiatric office, across the street from Carnegie Hall, only a few after-noons a week, after the markets close. I love practicing psychiatry, but Ispend most of my time in the markets.
Leaming to trade has been a long journey — with soaring highs and achinglows. In moving forward—or in circles—I repeatedly knocked my faceagainst the wall and ran my trading account into the ground. Each time Ireturned to a hospital job, put a stake together, read, thought, did more test-ing, and then started trading again.
My trading slowly improved, but the breakthrough came when I realizedthat the key to winning was inside my head and not inside a computer.Psychiatry gave me the insight into trading that I will share with you.
Do You Really Want to Succeed?For the past 17 years I’ve had a friend whose wife is fat. She is an elegant
dresser, and she has been on a diet for as long as I have known her. She saysshe wants to lose weight and she does not eat cake or potatoes in front of2. PSYCHOLOGY IS THE KEY 3
people — but when I come into her kitchen, I often see her go at it with a bigfork. She says she wants to be slim, but remains as fat today as the day wemet. Why?
The short-term pleasure of eating is stronger for her than the delayed plea-sure and health benefits of weight loss. My friend’s wife reminds me of agreat many traders who say they want to be successful but keep makingimpulsive trades — going for the short-term thrills of gambling in the markets.
People deceive themselves and play games with themselves. Lying to oth-ers is bad enough, but lying to yourself is hopeless. Bookstores are full ofgood books on dieting, but the world is full of overweight people.
This book will teach you how to analyze and trade the markets and how todeal with your own mind. I can give you the knowledge. Only you can sup-ply the motivation.
2. PSYCHOLOGY IS THE KEY
You may base your trades on fundamental or technical analysis. You maytrade because of hunches about economic and political trends, use “insideinformation,” or simply hope.
Remember how you felt the last time you placed an order? Were you anx-ious to jump in or afraid of losing? Did you procrastinate before picking upthe phone? When you closed out a trade, did you feel elated or humiliated?The feelings of thousands of traders merge into huge psychological tides thatmove the markets.
Getting Off the Roller Coaster
The majority of traders spend most of their time looking for good trades.. Once they enter a trade, they lose control and either squirm from pain or grinfrom pleasure. They ride an emotional roller coaster and miss the essentialelement of winning—the management of their emotions. Their inability tomanage themselves leads to poor money management of their accounts.
If your mind is not in gear with the markets, or if you ignore changes inmass psychology of crowds, then you have no chance of making moneytrading. All winning professionals know the enormous importance of psy-chology in trading. All losing amateurs ignore it.
Friends and clients who know that I am a psychiatrist often ask me4 INTRODUCTION
whether this helps me as a trader. Good psychiatry and good trading haveone important principle in common. Both focus on reality, on seeing theworld the way it is. To live a healthy life, you have to live with your eyesopen. To be a good trader, you need to trade with your eyes open, recognizereal trends and turns, and not waste time or energy on regrets and wishfulthinking.
A Man’s Game?
Brokerage house records show that most traders are male. The files of myeducational firm, Financial Trading Seminars, Inc., confirm that approxi-mately 95 percent of traders are men. For this reason, you’ll find that I com-monly use the masculine pronoun (he) in the anecdotes and cases throughoutthis book. Of course, no disrespect is intended to the many successfulwomen traders.
The percentage of women is higher among institutional traders — employ-ees of banks, trading firms, and the like. In my experience, however, the fewwomen who get involved in trading succeed more often than men. A womanneeds exceptional drive to plunge into this male preserve.
Trading is similar to such thrilling and dangerous sports as sky-diving,rock-climbing, and scuba-diving. They also attract mostly men — fewer than1 percent of hang gliders are female.
Men are drawn to risky sports in our increasingly regulated society. Dr.David Klein, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, was quoted in theNew York Times as saying, “as work becomes more and more routinized . . .we turn to recreation for a sense of accomplishment. The safer and more rou-tine we make work, the more we will push people into recreations whereindividual distinction and discretion, adventure and excitement play a part.”
These sports provide intense pleasure but have a stigma of danger becausemany participants ignore the risks and take thoughtless chances. Dr. JohnTongue, an orthopedic surgeon in Oregon who studied accidents among hanggliders, found that the chance of death rises among more experienced pilotsbecause they take greater risks. An athlete who wants to enjoy risky sportshas to follow safety rules. When you reduce risks, you gain an added senseof accomplishment and control. The same goes for trading.
You can succeed in trading only if you handle it as a serious intellectualpursuit. Emotional trading is lethal. To help ensure success, practice defen-sive money management. A good trader watches his capital as carefully as aprofessional scuba diver watches his air supply.2. PSYCHOLOGY IS THE KEY 5
How This Book Is Organized
\\
Successful trading stands on three pillars: psychology, market analysis and\trading systems, and money management. This book will help you exploreall three.
The first chapter of this book shows you a new approach to managingyour emotions as a trader. I discovered this method while practicing psychia-try. It has greatly improved my trading, and it can help you, too.
The second chapter describes the crowd psychology of markets. Massbehavior is more primitive than individual behavior. If you understand howcrowds behave, then you can profit from their mood swings and avoid beingswept up in their emotions.
The third chapter of the book shows how chart patterns reveal crowdbehavior. Classical technical analysis is applied social psychology, like poll-taking. Trendlines, gaps, and other chart patterns actually reflect crowdbehavior.
The fourth chapter teaches modern methods of computerized technicalanalysis. Indicators provide a deeper insight into mass psychology than clas-sical technical analysis. Trend-following indicators help identify markettrends, while oscillators show when trends are ready to reverse.
Volume and open interest also reflect crowd behavior. The fifth chapterfocuses on them as well as on the passage of time in the markets. Crowdshave a very short attention span, and a trader who relates price changes totime gains a competitive advantage.
The sixth chapter focuses on the best techniques of stock market analysts.They can be especially helpful for stock index futures and options traders.
Sentiment indicators measuring the opinions of investors and traders areprofiled in the seventh chapter. Crowds follow trends, and it often pays tojoin them when prices are moving. Sentiment indicators show when it is timeto abandon the crowd — before it misses an important reversal.
The eighth chapter reveals two proprietary indicators. Elder-ray is a price-based indicator that measures the power of bulls and bears below the surfaceof the markets. Force Index measures prices and volume. It shows whetherthe dominant market group is becoming stronger or weaker.
The ninth chapter presents several trading systems. The Triple Screentrading system is my own method. I have used it for years. This and othersystems show you how to select trades and find entry and exit points.
The tenth chapter focuses on money management. This essential aspect ofsuccessful trading is neglected by most amateurs. You can have a brillianttrading system, but if your money management is bad, then a short string of6 INTRODUCTION
losses will destroy your account. Trading without proper money manage-ment is like trying to cross a desert barefoot.
You are about to spend many hours with this book. When you find ideasthat seem valuable to you, test them in the one crucible that matters — yourown experience. You can make this knowledge your own only by question-ing it.
3. THE ODDS AGAINST YOU
Why do most traders lose and wash out of the markets? Emotional andthoughtless trading are two reasons, but there is another. Markets are actuallyset up so that most traders must lose money.
The trading industry kills traders with commissions and slippage. Mostamateurs cannot believe this, just as medieval peasants could not believe thattiny invisible germs could kill them. If you ignore slippage and deal with abroker who charges high commissions, you are acting like a peasant whodrinks from a communal pool during a cholera epidemic.
You pay commissions for entering and exiting trades. Slippage is the dif-ference between the price at which you place your order and the price atwhich it gets filled. When you place a limit order, it is filled at your price ornot at all. When you feel eager to enter or exit the market and give a marketorder, it is often filled at a worse price than prevailed when you placed it.
The trading industry keeps draining huge amounts of money from themarkets. Exchanges, regulators, brokers, and advisors live off the marketswhile generations of traders keep washing out. Markets need a fresh supplyof losers just as builders of the ancient pyramids of Egypt needed a freshsupply of slaves. Losers bring money into the markets, which is necessaryfor the prosperity of the trading industry.
A Minus-Sum Game
Brokers, exchanges, and advisors run marketing campaigns to attract morelosers to the markets. Some mention that futures trading is a zero-sum game.They count on the fact that most people feel smarter than average and expectto win in a zero-sum game.
Winners in a zero-sum game make as much as losers lose. If you and I bet3. THE ODDS AGAINST YOU 7
$10 on the direction of the next 100-point move in the Dow, one of us willcollect $10 and the other will lose $10. The person who is smarter shouldwin this game over a period of time.
People buy the trading industry’s propaganda about the zero-sum game,take the bait and open trading accounts. They do not realize that trading isaminus-sum game. Winners receive less than what losers lose because theindustry drains money from the market.
For example, roulette in a casino is a minus-sum game because the casinosweeps away 3 percent to 6 percent of all bets. This makes rouletteunwinnable in the long run. You and I can get into in a minus-sum game ifwe make the same $10 bet on the next 100-point move in the Dow but dealthrough brokers. When we settle, the loser is out $13 and the winner collectsonly $7, while two brokers smile all the way to the bank.
Commissions and slippage are to traders what death and taxes are to all ofus. They take some fun out of life and ultimately bring it to an end. A tradermust support his broker and the machinery of exchanges before he collects adime. Being simply “better than average” is not good enough. You have tobe head and shoulders above the crowd to win a minus-sum game.
Commissions
You can expect to pay a round-trip commission of anywhere from $12 to$100 for every futures contract you trade. Big traders who deal with discounthouses pay less; small traders who deal with full-service brokers pay more.Amateurs ignore commissions while dreaming of fat profits. Brokers arguethat commissions are tiny relative to the value of underlying contracts.
To understand the role of commissions, you need to compare them to yourmargin, not to the value of the contract. For example, you may pay $30 totrade a single contract of corn (5,000 bushels, worth approximately$10,000). A broker will say that the $30 commission is less than 1 percent ofcontract value. In reality, you have to deposit about $600 to trade a contractof corn. A $30 commission represents 5 percent of margin. This means youhave to make 5 percent on the capital committed to the trade, simply to breakeven. If you trade corn four times a year, you will have to make a 20 percentannual profit to avoid losing money! Very few people can do this. Manymoney managers would give their eyeteeth for 20 percent annual returns. A“small commission” is not a nuisance-it is a major barrier to success!8 INTRODUCTION
Many amateurs generate 50 percent and more of their account size in com-missions per year—if they last that long. Even discounted commissions raisea tall barrier to successful trading. I have heard brokers chuckle as they gos-siped about clients who beat their brains out just to stay even with the game.
Shop for the lowest possible commissions. Do not be shy about bargainingfor lower rates. I have heard many brokers complain about a shortage ofcustomers — but not many customers complain about the shortage of brokers.Tell your broker it is in his best interest to charge you low commissionsbecause you will survive and remain a client for a long time. Design a trad-ing system that will trade less often.
Slippage
Slippage takes either piranha-sized or shark-sized bites out of your accountwhenever you enter and exit the markets. Slippage means having your ordersfilled at a different price than that which existed when you placed an order. Itis like paying 30 cents for an apple in a grocery store even though the postedprice is 29 cents.
There are three kinds of slippage: common, volatility-based, and criminal.Common slippage is due to a spread between buying and selling prices.Floor traders maintain two prices in the market— the bid and the ask.
For example, your broker may quote you 390.45 for June S&P 500. If youwant to buy a contract at the market, you’ll have to pay at least 390.50. Ifyou want to sell at the market, you will receive 390.40 or less. Since eachpoint is worth $5, the 10-point spread between bid and ask transfers $50from your pocket to floor traders. They charge you for the privilege of enter-ing or exiting a trade.
The spread between bid and ask is legal. It tends to be narrow in big, liq-uid markets such as the S&P 500 and bonds, and much wider in thinly tradedmarkets such as orange juice and cocoa. The exchanges claim that the spreadis the price you pay for liquidity —being able to trade whenever you wish.Electronic trading promises to cut slippage.
Slippage rises with market volatility. Floor traders can get away withmore in fast-moving markets. When the market begins to run, slippage goesthrough the roof. When the S&P 500 rallies or drops, you can get hit with a20 to 30 point slippage, and sometimes 100 points or more.
The third kind of slippage is caused by criminal activities of floor traders.3. THE ODDS AGAINST YOU 9
They have many ways of stealing money from customers. Some put theirbad trades into your account and keep good trades for themselves. This kindof activity and other criminal games were recently described in a book,Brokers, Bagmen and Moles, by David Greising and Laurie Morse.
When a hundred men spend day after day standing shoulder to shoulder ina small pit, they develop a camaraderie —an “us against them” mentality.Floor traders have a nickname for outsiders which shows that they considerus less than human. They cail us “paper” (as in “Is paper coming in today?”).That is why you have to take steps to protect yourself.
To reduce slippage, trade liquid markets and avoid thin and fast-movingmarkets. Go long or short when the market is quiet. Use limit orders. Buy orsell at a specified price. Keep a record of prices at the time when youplaced your order and have your broker fight the floor on your behalf whennecessary.
Total Damage
Slippage and commissions make trading similar to swimming in a shark-infested lagoon. Let us compare an example from a broker’s sales pitch towhat happens in the real world.
The “party line” goes like this: A contract of gold futures covers 100ounces of gold. Five individuals buy a contract each from someone who sellsfive contracts short. Gold falls $4 and the buyers bail out, losing $4 perounce or $400 per contract. The intelligent trader, who sold five contractsshort, covers his position and makes $400 per contract, for a total of $2000.
In the real world, however, each loser has lost more than $400. He paid atleast a $25 round-trip commission and was probably hit with $20 slippagecoming and going. As a result, each loser lost $465 per contract and, as agroup, they lost $2325. The winner, who sold 5 contracts short, probablypaid a $15 round-trip commission and was hit with $10 slippage coming andgoing, reducing his gain by $35 per contract, or $175 for 5 contracts. Hepocketed only $1825.
The winner thought he made $2000, but he received only $1825. Thelosers thought they lost $2000, but in fact they lost $2325. In total, fully$500 ($2325 — $1825) was siphoned from the table. The lion’s share waspocketed by floor traders and brokers who took a much bigger cut than anycasino or a racetrack would dare!10 INTRODUCTION
Other expenses also drain traders’ money. The cost of computers and data,fees for advisory services and books—including the one you are readingnow —all come out of your trading funds.
Look for a broker with the cheapest commissions and watch him like ahawk. Design a trading system that gives signals relatively infrequently andallows you to enter markets during quiet times.IIndividual Psychology
 
4. WHY TRADE?
Trading appears deceptively easy. When a beginner wins, he feels brilliantand invincible. Then he takes wild risks and loses everything.
People trade for many reasons —some rational and many irrational.Trading offers an opportunity to make a lot of money in a hurry. Moneysymbolizes freedom to many people, even though they often do not knowwhat to do with their freedom.
If you know how to trade, you can make your own hours, live and workwherever you please, and never answer to a boss. Trading is a fascinatingintellectual pursuit: chess, poker, and a crossword rolled in one. Tradingattracts people who love puzzles and brainteasers.
Trading attracts risk-takers and repels those who avoid risk. An averageperson gets up in the moming, goes to work, has a lunch break, returnshome, has a beer and dinner, watches TV, and goes to sleep. If he makes afew extra dollars, he puts them into a savings account. A trader keeps oddhours and puts his capital at risk. Many traders are loners who abandon thecertainty of the present and take a leap into the unknown.
Self-FulfillmentMost people have an innate drive to achieve their personal best, to developtheir abilities to the fullest. This drive, along with the pleasure of the game
and the lure of money, propels traders to challenge the markets.
1112 INDIVIDUAL PSYCHOLOGY
Good traders tend to be hardworking and shrewd men. They are open tonew ideas. The goal of a good trader, paradoxically, is not to make money.His goal is to trade well. If he trades right, money follows almost as anafterthought. Successful traders keep honing their skills. Trying to reachtheir personal best is more important to them than making money.
A successful New York trader said to me: “If I become half a percentsmarter each year, I’ll be a genius by the time I die.” His drive to improvehimself is the hallmark of a successful trader.
A professional trader from Texas invited me to his office and said: “If yousit across the table from me while I day-trade, you won’t be able to tellwhether I am $2000 ahead or $2000 behind on that day.” He has risen to alevel where winning does not elate him and losing does not deflate him. Heis so focused on trading right and improving his skills that money no longerinfluences his emotions.
The trouble with self-fulfillment is that many people have a self-destruc-tive streak. Accident-prone drivers keep destroying their cars, and self-destructive traders keep destroying their accounts (see Section 7). Marketsoffer unlimited opportunities for self-sabotage, as well as for self-fulfillment.Acting out your internal conflicts in the marketplace is a very expensiveproposition.
Traders who are not at peace with themselves often try to fulfill their con-tradictory wishes in the market. If you do not know where you are going,you will wind up somewhere you never wanted to be.
5. FANTASY VERSUS REALITY
If you hear from a friend with little farming experience that he plans to feedhimself with food grown on a quarter-acre plot, you will expect him to gohungry. We all know that one can squeeze only so much blood from a turnip.The one field in which grown-ups let their fant