.
Pring on Market Momentum, Intl. Institute for EconomicResearch, 1993.
Ruggiero, Murray A., Cybernetic Trading Strategies, Wiley, 1997.
 
 526 Bibliography
Schwager, Jack D., Schwager on Futures Technical Analysis, Wiley,1996.
Steidlmayer, Peter J., 141 West Jackson, Steidlmayer Software,1996.
Steidlmayer on Markets, A New Approach to Trading,
Wiley, 1989.
Teweles, Richard J., Charles V. Harlow, Herbert L. Stone, TheCommodity Futures Game, McGraw-Hill.
Wheelan, Alexander, Study Helps in Point & Figure Technique,Morgan Rogers & Roberts, 1954, reprinted in 1990 by TradersPress.
 
Wilder J. Welles, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems,Greensboro, NC: Trend Research, 1978.
Wilkinson, Chris, Technically Speaking: Tips and Strategies from 16Top Analysts, Traders Press, 1997.Selected Resources
   
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Abandoned Baby candle pattern, 312ABC of Stock Speculation, The (Nelson), 24Acampora, Ralph, 457Adaptive moving average (AMA), 222Advance Block candle pattern, 315Advance-decline (AD) line, 436AD divergence, 437daily vs. weekly AD lines, 437variations in, 437-438Advanced technical indicators, 463-473Demand Index (Dl), 463-466, 473Herrick Payoff Index (HPI), 466-468Keltner channels, 470-472starc bands, 469-470Allen, R.C., 204Alpha cycles, 359Analysis vs. timing, 6-7Appel, Gerald, 252Arithmetic scale, 39-40Arms Index (TRIN), 444, 445Open Arms, 446smoothing, 445-446TICK vs., 444
Arms, Richard, 444, 448Art charting, 11Art of Contrary Thinking, The (Neill), 258Ascending triangle, 130, 131, 136-138, 331as bottoming pattern, 138bullish breakout, 136-137measuring technique, 137-138volume pattern, 140Asset allocation, 409-410Average, True Range, 469
Barker, David Knox, 359Bar charts, 35, 40-46compared to point and figure charts,266-270futures open interest, 35, 42-44volume, 35, 41-42Behavioral Finance, use of term, 21, 459Belt Hold candle pattern, 310Beta cycles, 359Blowoffs, 175Bollinger Bands, 209-211, 221using as targets, 210
531532
Index
 
Bollinger Bands (cont.)
and volatility, 211Bollinger, John, 209Bolton, A. Hamilton, 319Bottom failure swings, 242-243Bottom reversal day, 91, 92Breakaway candle pattern, 313Breakaway gaps, 94-95Breakouts, tactics on, 400-401Bressert, Walt, 359, 374, 375Broadening formation, 130, 140-141Brooks, John, 457Bullish speediine, constructing, 88-89Bull trap, 122Buy-and-hold strategy:
and futures, 7
and Random Walk Theory, 16Buy limit order, 403-404Buy stop order, 404
Call open interest, 177Candle pattern analysis, 301-306computerized, 306continuation candle patterns, 304-305reversal candle patterns, 301-304CandlePower charting, 448-449Candlestick charts, 37-39, 297-299, 309-317See also Japanese candlesticksChannel line (return line), 80-85measuring implications, 85Chart construction, 35-47arithmetic vs. logarithmic scale, 39-40candlestick charts, 37-39of daily bar charts, 36, 40-41futures open interest, 35, 42-44volume, 35, 41-42intraday chart, 35line charts, 36-37point and figure charts, 37, 38, 278-282types of charts available, 36-37weekly and monthly charts, 35, 45-46Chart patterns, 185Chartcraft Method of Point and FigureTrading, The (Cohen), 277Chartered market technician (CMT), 456-457Charting, 9, 10-12purpose of, 3subjectivity of, 11, 16
Charting software, 378-379Chartist, 10-12Closing prices, 30-31Cohen, A.W., 277Coil, See Symmetrical triangleCollins, Charles J., 319Commitments of Traders (COT) Report,175-176and large commercial hedgers, 176Commodities Futures Trading Commission(CFTC), 175 ©Commodity Channel Index (CCI), 237-239, 374Commodity market analysis, 15Commodity markets, chart of, 10Commodity Research Bureau Futures, 15Commodity Systems, Inc., 184Commodity Trend Service, 177Complex head and shoulders patterns,113-115tactics, 113Computers:charting software, 378-379Directional Movement System (WellesWilder), 378, 380, 384-387, 390and ADX, 384-387Parabolic System (Welles Wilder), 378,380, 381-384, 390system trading pros/cons, 387-389tools/indicators, 380using, 380TradeStation (Omega Research), 389-390and trading systems, 377-391Concealing Baby Swallow candle pattern,314Concentration, diversification vs., 396-397Confirmation, 155-156Congestion area, 147-150, 274Consensus National Commodity FuturesWeekly, 258Constant Forward Contracts vs.Continuous Contracts, 508-510Continuation candle patterns, 304-305Continuation charts for futures, construc-tion of, 182-183Continuation head and shoulders, 153-155Continuation patterns, 100-101, 129-156confirmation, 155-156continuation head and shoulders, 153-155index
533
 
divergence, 155-156triangles, 130-147 See also TrianglesContinuous futures contracts, 505-510Continuous Contracts, 507-510Constant Forward Contracts vs., 508-$10Gann Contract, 507Nearest Contract, 506Next Contract, 506-507Contract details, futures markets, 12Contrary Opinion, 226, 257-261combining with other technical tools,261interpreting bullish consensus numbers,258, 260market's reaction to fundamental news,260-261open interest (futures), importance of,2
and remaining buying/selling power,259and strong vs. weak hands, 259Corrective waves, 320-323, 324-331flats, 326-329triangles, 329-331zig-zags, 324-326CRB Futures Price Index, 423-424Crests, 348-351Cybernetic Trading Strategies (Ruggiero), 428Cycles:and 4 week rule, 218-219and moving averages, 212Cycles: The Mysterious Forces That TriggerEvents (Dewey and Mandino),344Cycle Trader, 375
Daily bar charts, 36, 40-41, 181horizontal axis, 41-42open interest, 35, 42-44vertical axis, 41-42volume, 35, 41-42Dark Cloud Cover candle pattern, 302, 311Day trading, 9Deliberation candle pattern, 314Demand Index (Dl), 167, 463-466, 473Descending triangle, 130, 138-140,331as a top, 138volume pattern, 140Descriptive statistics, 18deVilliers, Victor, 265
Dewey, Edward R., 344-348Dial Data Service, 50SDirectional Movement System (WellesWilder), 378, 380, 384-387, 390and ADX, 384-387Divergence, 27, 155-156, 227Diversification vs. concentration, 396-397Dobson, Edward D., 342Doji candlesticks, 300-301Doji Star candle pattern, 311, 312Dominant cycles, 358-360Donchian, Richard, 215-216, 362Dorsey, Thomas, 292Double crossover method, 203-204Double tops and bottoms, 57, 100, 117-121, 122-124measuring technique, 120-121Dow, Charles, 23-24, 265, 460Dow Jones & Company, 23Dow Jones Industrial Average, 14, 33, 320,422, 449-451Dow Jones Transportation Average, 33Dow Jones Utility Index, 33Downside Gap Three Methods candle pat-tern, 316Downside Tasuki Gap candle pattern, 316Downtrend, 50-52Dow Theory, 23-33, 319, 452applied to futures trading, 32basic tenets of, 24-30averages discount everything, 24-25averages must confirm each other, 27major trends have three phases, 26-27market has three trends, 25-26trend is in effect until it signals rever-sal, 28-30volume must confirm trend, 27closing prices, 30-31criticisms of, 31-32lines, 31stocks as economic indicators, 32Dragonfly Doji, 301Dunn & Hargitt’s Financial Services, 215
Easy Language (Omega), 390, 498-500Economic forecasting, 10
Efficient market hypothesis, 19-21, 459Ehlers, John, 374, 375
Ehrlich Cycle Finder, 363-365
Ehrlich Cycle Forecaster, 365, 366,375534
Index
 
Ehrlich, Stan, 363Elder, Alexander, 442Elliott, R.N., 27, 319Elliott Wave Supplement to the Bank CreditAnalyst, 319-320Elliott Wave Theory, 27, 76, 86, 319-342alternation, rule of, 331-332applied to stocks vs. commodities, 340basic tenets of, 320-323channeling, 332-334combining all aspects of, 338-340connection between Dow Theory and,324corrective waves, 320-323, 324-331flats, 326-329triangles, 329-331Zig-2ags, 324-326degrees of trend, 320-321Elliott Wave Principle, 320, 342Fibonacci numbers, 212-213, 322-323,334-335Fibonacci ratios and retracements, 335-338Fibonacci time targets, 338historical background, 319-320impulse waves, 320pattern, 320tatio analysis, 320time relationships, 320using with other technical tools, 342wave 4 as support area, 334Engulfing candle pattern, 310Equivolume charting, 447-448Evening Star candle pattern, 303-304, 312Exhaustion gaps, 96-97Exponentially smoothed moving average,197, 199-200Extremes, 486-487
Failed head and shoulders pattern, 113-115
Failure swing, 29-31, 242
Fair value, 415
Falling Three Methods candle pattern,304-305, 315
Fan principle, 74-76
Fibonacci fan lines, 90
Fibonacci numbers, 212-213, 322-323,334-335
Fibonacci number sequence, 322-323
Fibonacci percentage retracements, 335-338Fibonacci ratios, 86and retracements, 335-338Fibonacci time targets, 33850% retracement, 85-87Filtered candle patterns, 306-307Filters, 71-72, 122Financial futures, 8Flagpole, 143-144Flags, 141-145construction of, 142-143measuring implications, 143-144Flat corrections, 326-329Flow of funds analysis, 15Foreign currencies, 8Foundation for the Study of Cycles, 348,3754-9-18 day moving average combination,204how to use, 205-2074 week tule, 212, 215-219, 362Frost, A.J., 320, 342Fulcrum, use of term, 275Fundamental forecasting, technical fore-casting vs., 5-6Futures, 8blowoffs, 175life span, 12-13margin requirements, 13pricing structure, 12time frame, 14and timing, 14Futures Charts, 177
Gann Contract, 507
Gann fan lines, 90
Gann, W.D., 87, 90, 183
Gaps, 76
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, 410
Gould, Edson, 87-88
Granville, Joseph, 165
Granville’s New Key to Stock Market Profits,165
Gravestone Doji, 300
Great Cycle, The, (Stoken), 359
Greeley, John, 457
Hamilton, William Peter, 24Hammer candle pattern, 310Index
535
 
Hanging Man candle pattern, 310Harami candle pattern, 310-311Harami Cross candle pattern, 311Harmonicity, principle of, 351, 352, 354Harmonic relationships, cycles, 212, 218Head and shoulders, 74, 76continuation pattern, 153-155reversal pattern:basic ingredients of, 106neckline, breaking of, 106Price objective, 108-110adjusting, 109-110finding, 108-110return move, 106-107volume, 107-108Hedging process, 8Herrick, John, 466Herrick Payoff Index (HPI), 167, 466-468Hirsch,Yale, 373Histogram, 234-237, 476Homing Pigeon candle pattern, 315Horizontal count, 274-275How to Build a Fortune in Commodities(Allen), 204How to Use the 4-Day, 9-Day and 18-DayMoving Averages to Earn LargerProfits from Commodities (Alien),204Hurst, J.M., 348, 355-358
Identical Three Crows candle pattern, 314Impulse waves, 320Inductive statistics, 18In Neck Line candle pattern, 317Interest rate markets, 8Intermarket analysis, 413-431bonds:link between commodities and, 418link between stocks and, 416-417commodities, link between dollar and,419-420deflation scenario, 427-428dollar and large caps, 422intermarket correlation,428-429intermarket neural network software,429-430and mutual funds, 422program trading, 414, 415-416relative strength:and individual stocks, 426
and sectors, 424-425relative strength analysis, 422-426stock sectors and industry groups, 420-422top-down market approach, 427Intermarket correlation, 428-429Intermarket neural network software, 429-430Intermarket Technical Analysis (Murphy),414, 430Intermediate cycle, 359Intermediate trend, 25, 52-54Internal trendlines, 90International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts (IFTA), 457, 458International stock markets, 8,9Intraday pivot points, 407-408Intraday point and figure charts, construc-tion of, 270-273Intraday price charts, 45, 405-408Market Profile, 411Inverse head and shoulders, 110-112neckline, slope of, 111-112Inverted Hammer candle pattern, 310Investor Sentiment Readings, 261-262Investors Intelligence numbers, 262-263Island reversal pattern, 97
January Barometer, 373Japanese candlesticks, 37-39, 297-317basic candlesticks, 299-301candle pattern analysis, 301-306computerized, 306continuation candle patterns, 304-305reversal candle patterns, 301-304candle patterns, 309-317filtered, 306-307candlestick charting, 297-299Doji candlesticks, 300-301Long Days, 299Short Days, 299Spinning Tops, 299-300Jones, Edward, 23
K Wave, The (Barker), 359Kaufman, Perry, 222Keltner channels, 470-472Key reversal day, 91Kicking candle pattem, 313Kondratieff Wave, 359-360536
Index
 
Ladder Bottom candle pattern, 315Ladder Top candle pattern, 315Lambert, Donald R., 237, 307Lane, George, 246
Larry Williams %R, 249
Leading Indicators for the 1990s (Moore), 10,
430Life span, futures contracts 12-13Limit days, 168Limit order, 403-404Linearly weighted moving average, 197,199Line charts, 36-37Lines, 31, 57, 147-148Logarithmic charts, 39-40Longer range technical forecasting, 9Long-legged Doji, 300Long-term charts, 181-194adjusting for inflation, 186-187continuation charts for futures, con-struction of, 182-183examples of, 188-194longer range perspective, importance of,182long term trends, persistence of, 184-185and moving averages, 214patterns on, 185Perpetual Contract, 184and trading, 188Long term cycles, 359Long term to short term charts, 185-186Long Wave Cycle (Kondratieff), 359Lukac, Louis, 216Lunar cycle, 362
McClellan oscillator, 438-439McClellan, Sherman, 438McClellan Summation Index, 439-440Major reversal patterns, 99-128double tops and bottoms, 100, 117-121filters, 122head and shoulders, 100, 103-107complex, 113-115as consolidation pattern, 115failed, 113-115inverse, 110-112idea] pattern, variations from, 121-125price patterns, 100-103continuation, 100, 129-156measuring techniques, 101
reversal, 99-128volume, 100, 107-108Saucers/spikes, 100, 125-127triple tops and bottoms, 100, 115-117Major trend, 52-54Major Works of R.N. Elliott, The, 320, 342Managed accounts, 410-411Mandino, Og, 344Margin requirements, stocks vs. futures, 13Market averages, comparing, 435, 449-451Market breadth, measuring, 433Market-if-touched (M.I.T.) order, 404Market order, 403,404Market price, as leading indicator of fun-damentals, 6Market Profile, 411, 475-491graphic, 476-479defined, 476longer term market activity, tracking,486-490market structure, 479-480organizational principles, 480-483auction setting, 480continuous negotiation, 481market balance/imbalance, 481Price and value, 482-483short term trader/long term tradertoles, 482time frames and trader behavior, 481-482range development and profile patterns,484-485Market Technicians Association (MTA), 24,457Market Technologies Corporation, 429Matching High candle pattern, 314Matching Low candle pattern, 314Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis(MESA), 374-375Maximum retracement parameter, 86Measured move, 151-153Measuring gaps, 95-96Meeting Line candle pattern, 311Mendelsohn, Louis, 429-430MESA and Trading Market Cycles (Ehlers),374Metastock charting software (EquisInternational), 448M.LT. order, 404Momentum:Index
537
 
ascent/descent rates, 230crossing of zero line, 231-232measuring, 228-233momentum line, and price action, 230upper/lower boundary, need for, 232-233Money management, 393-411, 501asset allocation, 409-410combining with technical factors, 403diversification vs. concentration, 396-397guidelines for, 395-396managed accounts, 410-411mutual funds, 410-411teward-to-risk ratios, 397-398trading multiple positions, 398-399Monthly charts, 35, 45-46, 181-182Monthly cycle, and moving averages, 212Monthly reversals, 93, 185Moore, Geoffrey, 430Morning Doji Star candle pattern, 312Morning Star candle pattern, 303, 312Morris, Greg, 184, 296, 297fn, 306, 448Moving Average Convergence/Divergence(MACD), 214, 252-255, 374MACD histogram, 255Moving average, 195-215adaptive (AMA), 222alternatives to, 223applied to long term charts, 213-215Bollinger bands, 209-211, 221using as targets, 210and volatility, 211defined, 195-196double crossover method, 203-204envelopes, 207-208exponentially smoothed, 197, 199-200Fibonacci numbers used as, 212-2134-9-18 day moving average combina-tion, 204how to use, 205-207linearly weighted, 197, 199optimization, 220-221as oscillators, 214and point and figure charts, 294-295pros/cons of, 214simple, 197, 199as smoothing devices with time lag, 197-207and time cycles, 212triple crossover method, 204
using one, 2