betraded profitably in this manner even if the pattern eventually fails. Capturing the flag part of the flag pattern can sometimes be as effective astrading the break.
TRIANGLES, WEDGES, AND DIAMONDSTriangles and wedges are yet another family of consolidation patterns thatcan offer a variety of profitable setups to the technically oriented trader.
TrianglesThere are three key patterns that most technicians focus on:1. Symmetrical triangle2. Ascending triangle3. Descending triangle
The symmetrical triangle, which shows price action becoming progressively tighter and compressing like a coil, usually forms during a trendas a continuation pattern. This pattern contains at least two lower highsand two higher lows. When these points are connected on the chart theyeventually converge into a fulcrum that typically resolves itself in the direction of the initial trend. That’s not always the case, however, and sometimes symmetrical triangles will produce breakdowns in an uptrend andbreakouts in a downtrend. Regardless of whether the symmetrical triangleevolves into continuation or reversal, the key to trading it successfully isto wait unit the price action actually makes a move before committing to asetup. Figure 8.17 shows two separate symmetrical triangles with theprice resolving in different directions.Why is this pattern so valuable? Because it perfectly encapsulates themarket struggle between the longs and shorts to assert control over price.During the period of consolidation neither the bulls nor the bears can extend their ranges. Thus we have a series of lower highs and higher lowsuntil eventually the price action triangulates and one side blinks. Often inthe currency market this pattern can give birth to a powerful move akin toa rubber ball held under water, which when released will thrust upward(see Figure 8.18).The ascending triangle is usually a bullish formation that serves as a
Patterns and Antipatterns: Know Your Mark
FIGURE 8.17 Symmetrical Triangles in EUR/USDSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
FIGURE 8.18 Symmetrical Triangle Breakout in EUR/USDSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
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continuation pattern in an uptrend or a reversal pattern in a downtrend.The ascending triangle is distinguished by its series of higher lows andrelatively even highs. The higher lows indicate that bulls are accumulating the currency on any and all pullbacks, inexorably building a strongline of support. At the same time the bears provide consistent resistanceat the upper level of the range. As time progresses the distance betweenthe two camps inevitably narrows, and typically as the buying pressurefrom the bulls builds resistance gives way and prices resolve upward (seeFigure 8.19).The general rule of thumb is that the price must make at least threeimpulse highs and two reaction lows in order for the pattern to qualify asan ascending triangle. In essence, the triangle is composed of series ofdouble tops and higher double bottoms.Once a breakout is made, the straight line of the ascending trianglethat used to serve as resistance now becomes support. Most traderswould be wise to place their stops near that point. However, the exact nature of the stop should be carefully considered. The key tenet of technicalanalysis is that former resistance becomes new support. The corollary tothat rule is that price will quite frequently want to test that former support. In the case of the ascending triangle, the bears may make one laststand and try to drive the prices back through the breakout line. Therefore
FIGURE 8.19 Ascending Triangle in USD/JPYSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
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it is important to set stops not at the top line of the triangle, which wouldrisk taking the trader out on a quick burst back to support, but rather atthe bottom line of the triangle, which should avoid most of the positionjockeying noise but is still close enough to protect trading capital shouldthe pattern break down and fail (see Figure 8.20).The descending triangle is simply the reverse formation of the ascending triangle. The pattern is bearish and typically forms during adowntrend as a continuation pattern. It can also form as a reversal patternin an uptrend. The key distinguishing characteristic of the descending triangle is the fact that it is marked by a series of lower and lower highs andrelatively equal lows, so that price eventually converges to a point of resolution headed down.Like the ascending triangle, this pattern requires a minimum of tworeaction highs and three reaction lows to be considered valid. The descending triangle basically describes the futile action of the bulls as theystage a series of ever more pathetic rallies, each smaller than the priorone. As the last of the bullish momentum eventually wanes, prices giveway and a downward cascade commences.Whereas the ascending triangle demonstrates accumulation fromsmart-money bulls who buy every pullback in anticipation of a rally, thedescending triangle is a study in distribution where the crafty bears build
FIGURE 8.20 Placing Stops with Ascending TrianglesSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
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short positions on every rally, confident that prices will eventuallycrack. Although these patterns can be evident on any time frame, including even the 5-minute charts, they are most powerful when they develop on daily charts over periods of weeks and even months. Pricesthat form over longer time frames tend to present a much broader arrayof market consensus. When resolution comes, the moves therefore canbe quite powerful. Note in Figure 8.21 how the descending triangle inthe GBP/USD on the daily chart ultimately leads to an almost uninterrupted 800-point decline.
WedgesWedges can be one of the most difficult patterns to spot because of theirsubtle, slow formation. The falling wedge, for example, is a bullish pattern that connotes a reversal of a downtrend or a continuation of an uptrend. It begins with a wide range and slowly contracts as prices makelower highs and lower lows. The shape of the wedge resembles a cone, although it rarely compresses to a tip. Rather, price ranges continue to narrow until the upper trend line of the wedge is broken to the upside and arally begins (see Figure 8.22).
FIGURE 8.21 Descending Triangle in GBP/USDSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
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FIGURE 8.22 Falling Wedge in EUR/USDSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
The key difference between a symmetrical triangle and a fallingwedge is the pronounced nature of the slope of the wedge. The fallingwedge will always have a downward-sloping bottom trend line that willconnect the series of lower lows. The wedge basically alerts the trader todeclining downward momentum and provides clues as to when the movemay be exhausted, allowing the trader to position early to take advantageof the turn. As such, using a momentum oscillator like the MACD histogram in conjunction with a falling wedge may be very useful to a tradertrying to identify an inflection point (see Figure 8.23).The rising wedge, like its antithesis the falling wedge, is also a longterm pattern, although it is bearish in nature. The rising wedge portrays aslow rise in prices with a series of higher highs and higher lows that provideit with its distinctly upward-leaning slope. Although the rising wedge mayappear to be bullish, it is actually telegraphing a warning to a long-biasedtrader that upward momentum is losing steam as prices coalesce in an evernarrower channel (see Figure 8.24).The dynamic behind the rising wedge paints a picture where the bullsare able to generate a series of new highs, but each high becomes smallerand smaller. For example, note in Figure 8.25 that GBP/USD first makes arally 2,000 points in length; then after a retracement the second rally as
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FIGURE 8.23 Falling Wedge Conﬁrmed by MACD HistogramSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
FIGURE 8.24 Rising Wedge in USD/JPYSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
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FIGURE 8.25 Rising Wedge Leads to DeclineSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
measured from its swing bottom to its swing top is only 1,300 pointshigher; but soon afterward prices give way. In each successive up moveprices make new highs but as the length of each move decreases it showsthat bulls are becoming less and less productive, much like a bulldozerthat can move gravel less and less distance with each successive thrust.Eventually, as prices make smaller and smaller swing highs, the risingwedge comes to a near halt. If the price retraces, tests the lower end of itschannel, and then breaks it, the rising wedge provides a reversal signalthat can often lead to a powerful countertrend.
DiamondsDiamonds are one of the rarest patterns and can be incredibly frustrating fora trader caught within one (see Figure 8.26). The pattern, which is a reversalformation, is found far more frequently at market tops than at bottoms and isconsistent with the chaotic, volatile environment that often characterizessuch periods. The diamond pattern starts out as a series of higher double ortriple tops that consolidates into a symmetrical triangle. This rather bizarrecombination of broader price action followed by the narrowing of bars iswhat gives the diamond its distinctive shape.
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FIGURE 8.26 Diamond Pattern in AUD/USDSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
The price action carved by the diamond pattern is the result of wild,wide-ranging swings between the bulls and the bears, which are often afunction of emotional short covering and quick, careless stop-outs asboth parties become fearful of what may transpire next. Eventuallythe price action settles into smaller and smaller ranges as both parties,like gunslingers at the O.K. Corral, wait for the other guy to make thenext move.Since the diamonds predominantly occur at the top of the uptrend,the next move is typically down as trend exhaustion sets in and pricesfall (see Figure 8.27). The break of the diamond would signal the tradeentry point for a technical trader, with the swing top serving as the stop.If prices suddenly reverse and begin to race upward, the diamond willhave transformed into a consolidation range, which would be highly indicative of higher prices as bulls have been able to stem the decline. Atthat point the pattern fails; the trader should recognize that fact andabandon the trade.Diamond patterns with their high middle spike and winglike structureare quite similar to the final pattern that we’ll examine—one that is possibly the best-known price pattern of all: head and shoulders.
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FIGURE 8.27 Diamond Pattern Resolving to DownsideSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
HEAD AND SHOULDERSThe head and shoulders pattern is one of the most common and famousreversal patterns in all of technical analysis. The formation is basically avery specific type of triple top with the middle peak higher than the twooutside peaks. The pattern vaguely resembles a human body; thus themiddle peak is known as the head and the two lower peaks are the leftand right shoulders. Figure 8.28 shows the classic head and shoulders formation in GBP/USD.The head and shoulders pattern is formed after a prolonged uptrendin three distinct stages.1. The left shoulder is created while still in an uptrend as prices rally and
then retrace slightly without breaking the upward trend line. This partof the pattern can also be seen as a bull flag.2. From the low of the left shoulder prices stage a massive rally thattakes the currency pair to new highs. Prices then retrace the wholemove and find support at or near the low of the left shoulder.3. Prices again attempt to rally but fail to make new highs. The high ofthe right shoulder may be greater or smaller than the high of the left
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FIGURE 8.28 Head and Shoulders in GBP/USDSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
shoulder. However, once again prices fail in their rally, and this timethey decline past the bottom set by both the left shoulder and thehead. This support line is known as the neckline, and when it breaksthe head and shoulders pattern is completed as the full price reversalbegins to take place (see Figure 8.29).
REVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERSA reverse head and shoulders pattern follows the same dynamic, but simply in the opposite manner with the head making the peak low and thetwo shoulders completing the reversal pattern to the upside (see Figure8.30). One of the interesting aspects of both the regular and the reversehead and shoulders pattern is that, just as with all technical patterns, former support becomes resistance and former resistance becomes support.Thus, for example, in the reverse head and shoulders the neckline that initially served as major resistance will now become major support. Fortraders trading the head and shoulders pattern or its reverse, this lineshould now serve as a stop point, for if it is violated materially after pricesmake a breakout, then the pattern is most likely broken and may trans-
Patterns and Antipatterns: Know Your Mark
FIGURE 8.29 Breakdown from Head and ShouldersSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
FIGURE 8.30 Reverse Head and Shoulders in USD/CADSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
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form into a consolidation range that could eventually see continuationrather than a price reversal.Setting stops in this case, however, is far more a matter of art than ofscience. The neckline is a volatile barrier as both bulls and bears make allout attempts to battle for price dominance. Price may therefore frequentlydip below the neckline in the case of the reverse head and shoulders orpierce it in the case of the regular head and shoulders and stop out tradersbefore successfully resuming the pattern.What is a good strategy for proper stops? There are several possibilities. A trader cam simply set an arbitrary band of 50 or perhaps 100 pointsbelow the neckline for the reverse head and shoulders and do the opposite (setting a stop 50 or 100 points above the neckline) for the regularhead and shoulders pattern. This strategy may work most of the time,since it should provide ample room to clear most of the market noise fromthe position. However, another more technically based approach may bemore logical and effective: Instead of using a money stop, a technicallyoriented trader may consider using the low of the first bar that brokethrough the neckline. Figure 8.31 shows the proper stop. Alternatively forless-aggressive traders the stop could be placed below the low two barsback from the breakout.
FIGURE 8.31 Proper Stop for Reverse Head and ShouldersSource: FXtrek IntelliChart™. Copyright 2001–2005 FXtrek.com, Inc.
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This approach may be more technically correct, as it uses organic levels generated by the market to provide the trader with reasonable risk parameters. The idea behind using the most recent lows prior to breakout asthe stop-out points centers on the fact that they represent the value areasfrom which the bulls started their rally to complete the reverse head andshoulders pattern. Once those barriers are broken, the probability that thepattern is no longer operable increases significantly.
CONCLUSIONOf course no stops are perfect. It is quite possible to have the price piercethese stops only to violently rally back and resume the reversal. But technical analysis is the study of probabilities, not certainties. Patterns helpthe trader identify and classify the common behavior traits of market participants. Can this behavior change rapidly? Absolutely—especially in theFX market, which is so heavily driven by economic and geopolitical newsthat can reverse trader sentiment in a heartbeat.However, over a long period of time these patterns repeat themselveswith almost monotonous regularity. Just as most human behavior is quitepredictable over a long period of time, price patterns reflect this psychological dynamic numerous times on the charts. Simply familiarizing yourself with these patterns will not make you profitable. True skill requiresexperience and solid systematic interpretation of both the price actionand the indicator data. Nevertheless, these patterns are the basic buildingblocks for understanding and interpreting price flow. Just as the greatestliterary talent cannot function without the knowledge of the alphabet, so,too, a technically oriented trader cannot be successful without a thoroughunderstanding of how these patterns work.
CHAPTER 9
Know Yourself,Know Your Setup
W
ho are you? What are your strengths and what are your weaknesses? Do you thrive amidst chaos or require regimentation andstability? In trading, the answers to these questions are far moreimportant than any setup you can devise. At its core, trading is a game ofpsychology, and no amount of reading, no computerized back-testing, noadvanced seminar work will produce long-term success if your tradingstyle is in conflict with your basic personality. Contrary to popular belief,successful traders do not change their approaches to adjust to the marketbut rather find market environments that best suit their inherentstrengths. That’s why in books like Jack D. Schwager’s Market Wizards(New York Institute of Finance, 1989; HarperBusiness, 1993) you will findvery successful traders following diametrically opposite approaches tothe market and often dispensing what appears to be contradictory advice.In fact, it’s not at all inconceivable to imagine two market wizards takingopposite sides of the same trade yet both walking away with a profit.To market novices this idea may seem completely illogical. In mostbusinesses we are taught that there is always an optimal way of doingthings, that certain processes will be far superior to others. Clearly that’sthe case with engineering, where scientific rules of optimization and refinement apply to everything from car production to bridge building. Financial markets, however, are emotional mechanisms, which is whyengineering-based solutions to trading inevitably fail.Financial markets are extraordinarily complex with a multitude of players, each with a different agenda and time perspective, providing the traderwith a variety of opportunities for profit. Since the currency market is the143
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largest financial market of all, the flexibility to craft a strategy conducive toyour specific personality is even better in FX than in any other market. Thecold hard truth of life is that we do not really change; we just grow older. Themost successful businesspeople in the world learn how to utilize theirstrengths while minimizing their weaknesses by having their more skilledcolleagues perform those tasks which they cannot do well. Trading is verymuch the same. Successful traders choose those strategies that are mostaligned with their psychological profiles while staying out of the marketwhen conditions aren’t suitable for their style. It isn’t a matter of doing theeasy thing or the difficult thing. All trading is difficult. Rather it’s a matterof doing the natural thing. Why is this concept so important? Couldn’t yousimply learn proper trading habits with enough practice and discipline?No. No matter how much discipline you possess, if you are trading contrary to your natural impulses you will eventually sabotage your tradingplan and you will fail.This is the reason why cookie-cutter trading maxims such as “Cutyour losses short and let your profits run” are not only useless but oftenhighly destructive for most traders. Each person is unique, and successfulcurrency trading is the art of applying each trader’s personal skills to thearray of opportunities present in the market.Let’s take a quiz. It is by no means a scientific test. It’s just seven simple questions that I devised a while back to help discover potential tradingprofiles. Don’t worry—there are no right or wrong answers. But maybeyou will gain some insight into who you are as a trader.Answer the questions as honestly as possible.There are no “correct” answers.You fail only if you lie.1. You need to buy one important item in the store. You run in quickly,
pick it up, and approach the counter. Unfortunately, instead of theusual five cashiers only one cashier is open and there is a line of 20customers ahead of you. You:A. Walk out of the store immediately, leaving your item behind.B. Get in line and wait your turn.2. You are driving down a two-lane highway on your way to work. Suddenly a sports car tries to cut you off, nearly clipping your fender. You:A. Slam your horn for at least 15 seconds and wish the driver dead.B. Hit the brakes and let the driver pass unimpeded.3. Assume you are capable of doing both activities. What’s more fun?A. Fishing.B. Downhill skiing.
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4. The Powerball lottery jackpot is $100 million. You are at a newsstand
buying a magazine when you discover a crumpled $20 bill in a shirtpocket. You:A. Buy 20 lottery tickets.B. Put the $20 in your wallet.5. Your favorite entertainer is in town for a surprise show. Your choicesare:A. Get up at 4 A.M. on Saturday morning to get tickets at the boxoffice.B. Buy tickets online for a show nine months later.6. What is worse:A. A constant low-grade toothache for a month?B. Having your wisdom tooth pulled with no anesthetic?7. For the next 52 weeks choose one:A. You will be paid $2,000 per week.B. You will be paid $700 per week with a reasonable chance but noguarantee to collect a $250,000 bonus.There is no final score for this test. There are no neat boxes to classify the answers. Rather, they are meant to uncover some inner drivesto your behavior that may offer you better clues to what type of tradingsuits you best.Let’s examine each question in detail.1. You need to buy one important item in the store. You run in quickly,
pick it up, and approach the counter. Unfortunately, instead of theusual five cashiers only one cashier is open and there is a line of 20customers ahead of you. You:A. Walk out of the store immediately, leaving your item behind.B. Get in line and wait your turn.How many of us have been in this situation and wanted to scream infrustration? Yet while this question seemingly examines the commonproblem of modern life, it is actually trying to probe your ability to abandon positions quickly. Will you cut and run at the first sign of trouble orstubbornly wait it out? In other words, answer A says you are likely totake a quick stop-out. Answer B indicates you will nurse a trade, no matter the discomfort.
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2. You are driving down a two-lane highway on your way to work.
Suddenly a sports car tries to cut you off, nearly clipping yourfender. You:A. Slam your horn for at least 15 seconds and wish the driver dead.B. Hit the brakes and let the driver pass unimpeded.This question tries to ascertain your ability to react to surprising anduncontrollable situations in the market. Do you stoically accept the fatethat is dealt you or do you fume in furor over the injustice over it all? Putsimply—can you take stops well?Again, this is not a moral question, but rather one of style. If surprisesreally unnerve you, the solution is not to learn to repress your emotionsbut, as we’ll see later in the chapter, to apportion your capital in such away as to avoid a death spiral of impulsive, reckless trading caused byloss of control.3. Assume you are capable of doing both activities. What’s more fun?
A. Fishing.B. Downhill skiing.Surprisingly enough, this is a question about trend and countertrendtrading. Fishermen trend, skiers fade. Before I receive letters of protestfrom trend-following skiers and fading fishermen, allow me to explain.Fishing requires time, methodology, and, most importantly, patience. Fishermen, like trend traders, will cast their line many times before they get abite. Downhill skiers, on the other hand, look for a quick thrill with a veryspecific goal—end of run. This psychological drive is similar to that offaders who seek quick profits as currency prices make a quick retracement. Does fishing always lead to trend trading and skiing to countertrendtrading? Of course not. However, the activity you choose suggests a definite predilection for one style versus the other.4. The Powerball lottery is $100 million. You are at a newsstand buy-
ing a magazine when you discover a crumpled $20 bill in a shirtpocket. You:A. Buy 20 lottery tickets.B. Put the $20 in your wallet.This question is really a measure of a trader’s preference to trade longshots. If you are willing to bet the lotto, that means you are willing to takea very low-probability trade. Again that fact in and of itself is not neces-
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sarily detrimental to a trader’s success. As we will see later, if done properly currency speculation allows the trader to place highly improbablebets while limiting overall risk. However, if you chose A, you need to understand that you will most likely lose. A very common problem amongtraders is the tendency to trade long shots with the expectation to win frequently. This inability to reconcile action with expectation probably leadsto more trader failure than all other problems.5. Your favorite entertainer is in town for a surprise show. Your
choices are:A. Get up at 4 A.M. on Saturday morning to get tickets at the box office.B. Buy tickets online for a show nine months later.This is a question of trading goals. Do you seek immediate gratification and are willing to pay the price to get it? Are you willing to stare atthe screen 18 to 20 hours 5 days per week and then scrupulously reviewevery single trade over the weekend? Then you most likely picked A. Orare you more long term oriented? Are you willing to delay your desire forquick cash in order to live a less-demanding lifestyle? Then B is yourchoice. Note if you picked B but have the goals of a trader who picked A,you are unlikely to realize them.6. What is worse:
A. A constant low-grade toothache for a month?B. Having your wisdom tooth pulled with no anesthetic?Since neither choice is at all pleasant, this of course is a questionabout stop-losses. The issue that this question tries to determine is this:Are you more comfortable taking a long series of small losses or wouldyou rather take an occasional large loss? How one honestly answers thisquestion is crucial in determining what style to trade.7. For the next 52 weeks choose one:
A. You will be paid $2,000 per week.B. You will be paid $700 per week with a reasonable chance but noguarantee to collect a $250,000 bonus.No doubt entrepreneurially minded, free-market-loving traders wouldscoff at the idea of a steady paycheck and will inevitably choose B. Butcheck your ego at the door and ask yourself, are you really comfortable
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with this type of volatility? In choice A you stand to make $104,000 peryear. In choice B you make either $286,400 or only $36,400 per year. Inother words, you can almost triple your salary of choice A or make onlyabout one-third as much. If this disparity truly doesn’t bother you and youtherefore chose B, then a highly aggressive, high-leverage strategy may bemore your style. However, if wide disparity in outcome does bother you,that type of trading will be financial suicide. Instead a totally different approach must be pursued.Let’s examine in detail some strategies that may be of use dependingon what type of trader you are. Just as in trading there are really only twodecisions to make—trend or fade—so, too, in money management thereare only two strategies to follow: You can either suffer numerous smalllosses and hope that an occasional large win will more than offset thedrawdowns in your account or you can harvest many small profits andsuffer an occasional large loss that you hope doesn’t overwhelm the profitcushion you have built. Of course novice traders rarely face these twochoices. They simply lose money. Some lose money in small incrementsover a long period of time, while others lose money in shockingly hugechunks and are out of the game before they even have a chance to learnhow to properly use their trading software. Why do novices inevitablylose? Because they trade in a random fashion. They rarely practice consistency in their setups. They rarely understand the dynamics of price flow,and even when they learn it, they frequently misunderstand the nature oftechnical analysis.A while back I received an e-mail from a very nice and earnest formerstudent. He wrote:Boris—I was always taught and was repeatedly told that when itcomes to a break of support or resistance, the confirmation of sucha break is a clean break followed by price exceeding the close of thebreaking candle.The 61.8 percent Fib of the June and July bullwave forEUR/CHF came in at 1.5434, cleanly broken on September 1st whenprice closed at 1.5412. The next day the price fell further, closing at1.5399 and inducing me to take a large short.Having seen this proved false several times (although never asstarkly as this or as expensively), I am of the firm opinion that wecan take the above philosophy and consign it to the trash for themyth that it is. Would I not at least be right to take it extremelylightly as yet another one of those theories that has more than a 50percent exception rate?
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To which I replied:This is actually a perfect example of how technical analysis is inthe eye of the beholder. First and foremost, there never ever was sucha concept as “always” in technical analysis, only “likely.” We areforever dealing in probabilities here.Second, why did this trade work out badly for you? Looking atthe chart, I see the first natural stop at 1.5486, above the high of thebreakdown candle on September 1. It hasn’t even come close tobreaking it yet.I actually really like EUR/CHF short as I think the Swiss willoutperform the EU in the near term. Having said that, I hate trading breakout and breakdown because I always feel like I am chasingprice flow, but that is my personal prejudice.One idea you might consider is to wait a bit and try to short theretracement—in this case maybe at 1.5430. You risk the chance oflosing out on the