separate accounts.Avoid the popular radio and television business shows—the odds arethat if you’re following valid systems and the STF structure, you knowmore than the so-called experts can tell you.
WHAT’S NEXT?
This lesson is not followed by a quiz. Now that you have worked through thelessons, take some time to sit back and evaluate the methods within yourﬁnancial ability, time frame, discipline, and individual psychology. You mustenjoy the methods you are using and you must understand them. Unless youdo so, you will not want to follow the methods.
Take your time, plan your trades, and trade your plans.Lesson 22 will discuss the Psychology and Discipline of Trading. It isperhaps the most important lesson in this course. Study it well, and you willavoid the many pitfalls that can affect the traders’ bottom-line performance.
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L E S S O N 22, D A Y S 29–30
The Psychologyand Disciplineof Trading
I f you have been trading stocks or commodities for even a relatively
short period of time, then you are well aware of the fact that psychologyand discipline are the weakest links in the trading chain. No educationand trading would be complete without a discussion of the most importantaspects of psychology and discipline.
This lesson gives you tools that you need to put the methods and systemsthat I have discussed into action. Here are some very important thoughtsand considerations that will help you minimize the negative effects of traderpsychology while maximizing the positives. Think them through carefullyand give them the serious attention they deserve. Then, if you feel that theymake sense to you or if you “see” yourself in some of the behaviors I havediscussed, then make the necessary corrections.
This ﬁnal lesson is not followed by a quiz. The true and ﬁnal test of yourability and willingness to incorporate these suggestions into your tradingplan will be your results.
ENEMIES OF THE TRADER
As traders and investors, we are always struggling with the demons thatdenigrate performance or that cause us to lose money. The best trading toolsare useless in the hands of an undisciplined trader whereas a mediocre or“ugly duckling” trading approach can be transformed into a money-makingswan. The critical variables that differentiate winners from losers are not
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on a function of the pragmatic considerations I cited earlier but they arealso related to the internal and/or behavior factors that affect the trader.The “enemies” of the trader are usually those that reside deep within thepsyche of the trader or in learned behavior patterns that may have servedtheir purpose at one time but which are no longer functional at this time.
Trading and investing are, at best, difﬁcult undertakings and, at worst,losing propositions. Yet in spite of the difﬁculties, the allure, the intrigue,and the possibility of striking it rich continue to attract traders the worldover. Unfortunately, many of the newcomers lack the trading skills as wellas the trading discipline. Jesse Livermore (alias Edwin LeF `evre) expressedit eloquently as follows: “The chief enemies of the trader are always boringfrom within.”
What or who are these “chief enemies”? How can we recognize them?How can we “locate” and eradicate them? Are there proven methods fordoing so? There are many roadblocks to successful trading. In fact, severalbooks could be written about the factors that limit success but fewer yeton the factors that facilitate success. There are literally hundreds of thingstraders can do that will lose them money. There are only a few things thatlead to proﬁts.
I have summarized the major “loss producing” factors (i.e., the enemiesof the trader) for you as shown below. While I am certain that there aremany who disagree with my conclusions, I have drawn on my many yearsof personal experience in my own trading as well as my observations ofthousands of traders the world over. Here is a synopsis of my ﬁndings. It isfollowed by a brief commentary about each.
Imagination
An active imagination can prove highly beneﬁcial to a ﬁction writer, an artist,or a musician, but it has no place in trading. Many traders are prone to overlyactive imaginations. They envision or create positive as well as negativescenarios. Both can be destructive because they may lead to unrealisticconclusions and expectations. It is best for the trader to avoid imaginingpossible outcomes for a given trade.
To counteract this tendency, the trader must rely on his or her tradingmethodology to the exclusion of all other expectations. Once you haveentered a trade, do not allow your imagination to rule your emotions oryour expectations.
Overthinking
Overthinking is a form of an overly active imagination, albeit in a moreconcrete or intellectual way. Once you have developed a trading system
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or method, and once you have entered a trade, all the thinking or analysisin the world will not change the outcome of that trade. In fact, too muchthinking may cause you to lose your conﬁdence, thereby prompting you tomake a costly error that is not based on your original methodology.
Avoid creating “if-then” scenarios. Avoid talking or thinking in phrasessuch as “If I had only,” or “I should have” or “What if” or “If I added moreindicators to my system then . . . ” Other statements to avoid are “Lookslike the market wants to . . . ” or “I think it is time to get in.” This type ofanalysis should be done when developing a system, not after a trade hasbeen entered and not after your system has indicated that a trade should beentered. The market does not care what you think. The market will “do itsown thing” no matter what you think and no matter how strongly you thinkthat it “looks like it wants to go up.”
Overdosing on the News
The amount of news that is available on the markets is staggering, and it isgrowing larger by the second. The rapid growth of Internet communications,blogs, websites, and e-mail has created a “news overload” situation. There isso much news out there that it can often be confusing and even misleading.Experts are plentiful. Newsletters abound. Opinions are available virtuallyeverywhere.
Traders have a love-hate relationship with news. They love the newswhen it supports their position in the market(s) and they hate the newswhen it is contrary to their position in the market(s). Unless you know thenews before it happens, or unless you are the person making the news, theodds are that it will not help you make money.
As market technicians, we expect that our indicators and methodswill let us know when markets are likely to change direction or that theyhave changed direction. Most market technicians believe that their methodsare sensitive enough to detect the behavior of insiders before the marketsmake their moves. We believe technical indicators will tell us the impact ofthe news and not the news itself. As a technical trader, I advise you to avoidbeing exposed to the news if you are prone to be swayed to deviate fromyour system or trading plan. The news can be your best friend and yourworst enemy. Try to avoid either of these extremes.
Fight Your Fear
Fear is the most serious enemy of the trader. It can cause you to avoidmaking a trade and it can cause you to exit a trade too soon. The time to befearful about a trade is before you enter it. Once it has been entered, your
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fate is sealed. Let the trade run to its logical conclusion as prescribed byyour system or method. Do not get out too soon and do not get out too late.Simply stated, follow the rules and they will eliminate the fear, or, at thevery least, minimize it.
The best antidote for fear is conﬁdence. Conﬁdence does not just hap-pen. It is the product of an effective trading strategy. If you have conﬁdencein your methods then you will have less fear. And less fear will bring moreproﬁts through less error.
Keeping Greed in Check
Greed is not as serious an enemy as fear, but it runs a close second. Greedcan also prove to be your greatest enemy by causing you to stay with a tradeafter it should be closed out. When it is time to get out of a trade, then getout. Do not hold on, attempting to force the last drop of money out of thetrade.
Furthermore, do not accumulate a larger position on any market if yourﬁnances and risk will not allow it. Having too large a position at the wrongtime can and will destroy you.
Managing Expectation
If there is anything you should rightfully expect after you put on a trade itis that you will take a loss. Beyond this any proﬁt you make is conﬁrmationand afﬁrmation that your methodology is effective and that you are able toexecute it thoroughly. Expect the worst-case scenario, not the best! Expec-tation falls into the category of “imagination” as discussed above. Be lessimaginative and more mechanical.
Avoiding Rationalization
One of the worst things a trader can do is to avoid taking responsibility for hisor her losses. It is very tempting to blame everyone but yourself. Do not tryto explain away your losses by resorting to all manner and sorts of excuses.You lost on a trade either because your system or method was wrong orbecause you didn’t follow the rules. You must assume full responsibility inorder to facilitate learning by correcting your error(s). There is always thetemptation to blame your broker, or your trading advisor, or a newsletterwriter or a friend. There are no excuses. Most traders have a repertoire ofexcuses that grows with each loss. Forget about making excuses—they arenot productive.
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The Price of Disorganization
Some of the biggest mistakes I have made in my trading have been causedby disorganization. I have missed trades, lost trades, misplaced orders, for-gotten to put in stops and worse, all due to disorganization.
Make it your goal to be organized and disciplined in your market studies.If you use a system or method, then make certain you update it regularly.Keep good track of the trades you’ve made. Forgetting to enter or exit atrade due to disorganization can prove costly.
HOW TO THINK AND ACT LIKE A PRO
Now that we have examined some of the enemies of the trader, let us lookat some of the positives behaviors you can develop.
Get Organized
Organization is vital to the success of any venture. It is important to knowwhere you are headed, when you expect to get there, and which vehiclesyou will use to reach your destination. Without organization, these toolscan often be misplaced. Your charts, books, formulae, trading rules andtelephone numbers, and the like must be readily available.
Develop Discipline
This is, of course, easier said than done. There are many ways in which itcan be achieved. One of them is to take a course on self-improvement, suchas those offered by the Dale Carnegie Institute. You will learn that successrequires discipline and that discipline can be learned. Discipline can oftenbe improved through the simple application of behavioral learning tech-niques. My book, The Investors Quotient (New York: John Wiley & Sons,1980) gives speciﬁc suggestions and techniques designed to help you im-prove your discipline. In addition, there are many simple exercises that youcan use.
Remember that discipline from one area of your life tends to be reﬂectedin all others. Therefore, if you lack self-discipline when it comes to changingsuch negative habits as overdrinking, overweight, overeating, and smoking,then you will probably lack the discipline required for successful trading.You may need to overcome these habits ﬁrst, or you may need to conquerall lack of discipline at once.
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Finally, remember that discipline is not synonymous with rigidity. Beingrigid in following rules is not necessarily a form of discipline. Being a dis-ciplined trader also means being ﬂexible enough to change course as soonas you see that the action you have taken is not working. The rigid traderwill believe too strongly in his or her trading rules and this can prove de-structive. Trading is a game of probability, and there is no room for rigiditywhen it comes to probability.
Develop a Simple and Effective Trading Approach
One of the greatest limitations on success in trading is that systems becometoo complicated, too burdensome, or too time-consuming to use. If youbuild a boat, make certain you can get your boat into the water. Once in thewater, make certain you can move.
Too many traders spend too much time developing complicated, sophis-ticated “trading systems” that are too difﬁcult to implement. My knowledgeof top-ranking, successful futures traders shows that most of them use sim-ple methods. You will hear “keep it simple” repeated again and again.
“Keep it simple” is one of the foremost rules. If you keep it simple youare less consumed with details, less troubled with self-discipline, and youshorten your market response time. This alone will prove very valuable.Therefore, keep it simple!
Keep Impulsive Trading to a Minimum—StayRelatively Isolated
There is a great deal to be said for isolationism in trading. In order to keepfree of impulse, it is often best to not know the news. Then you can (as thesaying goes) keep your head while all those around you are losing theirs.You will, in so doing, avoid the costly errors that are so often the result ofimpulsive behavior rather than following your system.
I favor isolation. I prefer not to listen to the radio or television news,not to read the newspapers, not to discuss the markets, not to listen tothe opinions of others and not to discuss the markets, even with otherprofessionals. I do this because I know that I may have weaknesses. Inorder to be strong and avoid impulsive actions motivated by the emotionsof fear and/or greed, I must limit my exposure to extraneous information.
Plan Your Trades and Trade Your Plans
This market clich ´e is just as true today as when it was coined. It is the bestway to avoid virtually all of the losing inputs. If you are prepared, and if you
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act according to your plan, you will have taken the ﬁrst and most importantstep to practicing self-discipline.
Keep Your Objectives Clearly in Mind
You must always keep your goals in mind. If you are a short-term trader,then you must think and act like one. However, if you are a long-term trader,then your perception of the markets and your corresponding actions mustbe consistent with these objectives. I have found it best to have a list ofobjectives and goals handy for quick reference during in times of need.
Vent Frustration and Relieve Stress—Do Not“Live the Markets”
In order to improve market decisions, it is necessary to deal effectively withstress. There are many ways in which this can be achieved. Exercise is onegood way to cope with stress. It can help you vent frustrations and give youa chance to get your mind off the markets. Furthermore, leave the marketsat the ofﬁce.
If you plan to trade as your profession, then this rule is vital. If you planto trade in your spare time, then have certain hours set aside for this activityand do not become a market addict.
TO THINK OR NOT TO THINK: THETRADER’S DILEMMA
In closing this lesson on trader psychology and discipline, I leave you witha little bit of controversy. In 1969, when I made my ﬁrst futures trade, think-ing and analysis were fashionable. The 1960s and 1970s were good timesfor thinkers, freethinkers, thought-provoking issues, civil disobedience, andanalytical traders. Thinkers thought great thoughts about the future of ournation, about our presence and purpose (if any) in Vietnam, about domesticand international policy, racial issues, concerns about freedom and equality,and concern about the poor and the homeless. Thinking prompted radicalaction by various political interest groups. Frequent and violent antiwarprotests disrupted the social structures of our nation. Civil disobedience,draft card burnings, sit-ins and student protests were the rule and not theexception. The fundamentals that moved stock and futures prices werestudied closely. They were analyzed, scrutinized, and theorized. Computeranalysis of the markets was a new and promising science. Thy “why” ques-tion was paramount in the minds of traders and investors.
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Against the backdrop of this intellectual Zeitgeist, we were taught thatif success was to be through trading we would need to consider each tradecarefully; all potential outcomes were to be critically evaluated in terms ofrisk and reward; cause and effect. Trading decisions, we were told, whichwere the result of intensive analysis were likely to be more correct thanthose which were the product of less intensive scrutiny. In fact, thinkingabout trades was so much in vogue that traders would frequently seek outnumerous sources of information in order to validate each of their trades.There was no such thing as “too much information.” After all, how couldthere be too much information in the so-called Information Age?
While the idea that more information results in more proﬁts seemslogical on the surface, the actual result could be less proﬁts. Why? Considerthe following discussion.
EDSEL TRADING
Do you remember the story of the Edsel? In what seemed to be a reason-able, logical, and very intelligent approach, Ford Motor designed the Edselto please the consumer. They did so by attempting to include all the featuresthat the public wanted in a vehicle. The end result was a car that failed mis-erably. The simple truth is that “too many cooks spoil the broth.” Considerthe following questions with regard to trading:
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How much information is enough? Do you really need to subscribe tosix newsletters? Have your numerous daily visits to Internet advisoryWeb sites proved productive? Have you gotten good information frombusiness television and radio shows? Does the vast amount of availableinformation help you or does it confuse you?How can you decide when you have given a trading decision sufﬁcientthought or analysis? Does it take you more than a few minutes to make adecision? Do you vacillate when making your decisions? Do you changeyour mind once you have decided on a plan of action? Do you consultyour broker as the ﬁnal check and balance on your trades?Are there any objective measures for knowing when you have thoughtabout something enough, or does the process end when things “feelright”? Do you use a mechanical trading system to determine your mar-ket entry and exits? Are you a “discretionary trader”? By this I mean doyou use multiple technical inputs to help you reach a decision?Is there a correlation between the amount of thought devoted to a tradeand its end result? Do you get less return for more effort?Do your intensive analysis and thought truly lead to success in trading,or do you expend ten units of energy and effort for one unit of return?
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THINGS TO CONSIDER
There are literally thousands of things that a trader can do in the markets.Unfortunately, there are few winning choices and many losing ones. Ob-viously, our primary goal in creating success is to maximize the positivesand minimize the negatives. There is no single answer to the resolution ofthis dilemma; rather there are several or even numerous answers. In ad-dition, the answers vary from one trader to another as a function of theirpersonality, individual limitations, market orientation, and available capital.What follows are some points to consider in your plan to ﬁnd effectivemethods and systems that will dovetail with your individual abilities. In sodoing, consider the following issues and suggested solutions.
Deep Thought: Friend or Foe?
What is deep thought to one trader is either a mere pittance to anothertrader or a totally worthless activity to yet another trader. There are no setstandards, no guarantees, and no insurance policies that your efforts willyield proﬁts. There is no ﬁrm correlation between the amount of thoughtand deliberation that goes into a trade and the outcome of that trade. Infact, if there is a correlation, then it is likely an inverse one. Less is oftenmore in the markets. Simplicity is better than complexity.
Decisions made seemingly off the cuff by some traders are often moresuccessful than decisions made by committees. Computers have totallyrevolutionized the decision-making process by doing our “thinking” for us.Once the computer has done the hard work there’s really nothing left todo but to take the prescribed action. If you are using a trading system ofmethod that has proven its efﬁcacy either by your actual experience withit or through historical back testing then any hesitation subsequent to theacquisition of the trades is hesitation that will surely lead to confusion,indecision, insecurity, ambivalence, and equivocation—none of which areconstructive inputs in the formula for success.
Why Bother?
The purpose of my comments is to make a case for “simpler” and “lessintelligent” trading. I have stated my view on this issue earlier, however, Iwould like to underscore its importance in this section. Once the facts abouta trade are known and once the computer has decided on the best courseof action, there is no choice for you but to take action, provided that thedegree of risk is acceptable. Failure to take action constitutes a breach of the“contract” between you and the computer, but more importantly between
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you and yourself. I suggest that the failure to act on your system is the ﬁrstindication that you have taken a wrong turn, which will eventually lead youdown the road to ruin unless you change things.
Learning to Change
The only way in which change can be achieved is through learning. The onlyway learning can develop is through action. By doing nothing, there is nolearning and therefore no change regardless of whether the action wouldhave produced positive or negative results.
There is a distinct relationship between the success of a trader andhis or her ability to take action, whether the actions turn out to have beenright or wrong. Traders who make decisions promptly and without fear,after their indicators or systems tell them what to do, most often come outahead in the long run. Although seemingly paradoxical, it has also been myobservation that there is an inverse correlation between intellectual abilityand market success—the smarter you are (or think you are), the more youthink, and the less money you make.
I am not saying that you have to be stupid or ignorant in order to tradesuccessfully. What I am saying, however, is that you cannot overanalyze atrade or you will either be too late to make the trade or you talk yourselfout of it. Traders who can act quickly, evaluating information and reactingto it on an action level, are often traders who succeed. Note that I am notadvocating irrational or impulsive behavior. I am saying that once the factsare in, they are in—and action is the next step.
What Inhibits Action?
The fear of being wrong inhibits action. But if this is the fear that keeps youfrom making decisions, then you had better give up the game—there is noway you can play the game without taking some degree of fear. You neverknow ahead of time whether your decision will be proﬁtable or not. If youdid, then there would be no game. There would be no losers to help sustainthe winners.
The key antidote for fear is conﬁdence. Conﬁdence comes from havingvalid and effective systems and methods. Lack of conﬁdence in trading isnot usually the result of a psychological or behavioral disorder. It is a lackof conﬁdence in your methodology. Simply stated, the development andapplication of proﬁtable methods build conﬁdence. Conﬁdence trumps fear.
Feelings Are Not Facts!
Have you observed a relationship between your feelings about a given tradeand its eventual success or failure? Consider this: The more a trade scares
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you, the more likely it is to be successful. The ones you are scared out ofare often the ones that work. Why? The human brain cannot function in avacuum. It needs information to process. If you feed it information that isnot factual but that appears to be factual, then the brain reaches erroneousconclusions that are based on feelings and not facts!
Trade—Do Not Overthink!
Blunders are more plentiful than winning behaviors. Consider the follow-ing list of blunders, which are ordinarily considered the byproduct of “in-formed” thought. Consider how much money you have lost or failed to makeas a result of these opinions disguised as facts:
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There is too much risk. This is basically an excuse for fear. It is beensaid, “You do not know how deep a hole is until you stand in it.” Thisapplies to the risk of trading as well. If it is the degree of dollar risk thatis bothering you then there are many ways in which this problem maybe resolved or mitigated. Risk can be decreased by the use of futuresoptions and/or options strategies. Risk evaluation is an intangible. Ifintangibles scare you, then do not drive a car. If you really think aboutwhat could happen to you on an expressway then you will not want todrive. If you think about the risk of trading, then you will not trade.I do not feel good about this trade—it scares me. Here is a favorite copout on the list of excuses. Assuming that your signal to trade came froma computer or from a mechanical trading system, then your excuse iswithout merit. Your computer had no idea that you do not like the trade.Nor does the computer care about your feelings. Following feelings or“the force” may have been good for Luke Skywalker, but it is a totallybogus approach when signals come from a mechanical system or acomputer.The trade looks good but. Here is a worthless bit of reasoning. The signallooks good but . . . But what? You want to get in cheaper . . . you wantto wait for a pullback . . . you want more conﬁrmation . . . you want towait for a report . . . you want to wait for the next signal . . . you want totalk to your broker ﬁrst . . . Excuses . . . all poor excuses, which are thebastard child of what you think is good thinking! You might as well waitto ask your dead grandfather if the trade is good.Let’s see how the market opens before I enter my order. Check it afterthe ﬁrst hour of trading. Put in an order below the market above themarket. Here is an excuse that I have used hundreds of times. Trading isprimarily a game of stimulus and response. The signal is your stimulusand you must make the proper response.Perhaps I’ll trade a spread or an option instead. This bit of thinking iscertainly a more creative one, possibly even an intellectual thought. But
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it is totally wrong! Entering a spread as an alternative to a ﬂat positionis like entering a spread to avoid taking a loss. One action has nothingto do with the other. It is like giving peanut butter to a man dying ofthirst.And last, but by no means less absurd, is the “It just doesn’t lookright” excuse. This one comes from truly deep thought. It comes froman analysis of the economy, trends, possibly even volume and openinterest, and of course, from the input of too many traders and advisors.It you want to get totally confused and frozen into inaction think about—all the facts and opinions, evaluate them all, throw them into the hopper,and decide that you can’t decide because something does not seemright. Here is the real thinking trader’s excuse. And it is another totallyworthless one.
We Are All Far from Perfect
Do not think for even one second that I am preaching to you from a positionof perfection. I have made more than my share of mistakes. And I willcontinue to make mistakes for as long as I live. I hope that I will make fewermistakes and less serious ones as I go along, which is my hope for you as well.Try a little experiment. Make a commitment to take the next ten tradeswithout thinking about them. After you have done so evaluate your results.See how you have done. See how you feel. Here is what I think you willﬁnd: you have spent less valuable time on meaningless thought; you havemade the trades you were supposed to make; you will feel better aboutyourself—more conﬁdent and more secure—and you have probably mademoney as well.
Why We Can’t Always Learn from Our Losses
The late and great American learning psychologists have given us greatinsights into how people learn and how they forget. Perhaps the greatestcontribution that psychologists like behaviorist B. F. Skinner made was toshow us that most of our emotional responses are not innate but ratherlearned. As traders, we can learn a great deal about the learning process bystudying what these eminent psychologists have discovered. The lessonslearned apply to all traders and all systems. Whether you are trading sea-sonals, cycles, fundamentals, or mechanical systems it is imperative thatyou learn from every loss you take. Losses are the tuition you pay for youreducation in the markets.
While we are born with the capacity to feel certain emotions, it is ourrelationship with the environment (which we call “learning”) that attachescertain emotions to certain events. Very often the emotional attachments
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we connect to certain events are illogical or, what traditional psychiatristshave termed “neurotic.”
E. L. Thorndike, was the “father” of American learning psychology. Hewas among the ﬁrst to suggest that we learn emotional responses. He alsonoted that there are literally thousands of “wrong” behaviors we can learnand only a relatively few “right” behaviors.
How can we “unlearn” nonproductive or bad