ish formations.
25 n
cuts, almost all (93%) of the rectangles meeside breakouts, only 65% reach their targetsreliable, so rectangles with downside breako
The average formation length is the s
about 3 months. Those formations with anvolume trend 46% of the time, whereas thoreceding volume 54% of the time.
If we separate the formations by theupside breakouts having an upward volumethan those with a receding volume trend (grectangle bottoms with downside breakoutrend score losses of 22%, whereas receding40
50
60
70
Percentage Gain
Figure 32.4 Frequency distribution of gains for rectangle bottoms with upsidebreakouts. Due to the small sample size, I consider the 20% column to be the mostlikely gain an investor can expect to receive.
Thus, if your formation has an upward volpush to the ultimate high or low.Shown in Table 32.2 is the volume treor below the rectangle trendline boundarybreakouts, the volume is high for a few dDownside breakouts show unusually highdouble-checked the statistics and could not
I guess that is just the way the 54 chart pamay vary.
Table 32.3 shows premature breakouwith both upside and downside breakoutoccurring only 5 times (12%) in upside breaside ones. The volume pattern is not signi
Table 32.3Premature Breakout Statistics f
25
30
35
Percentage Loss
Figure 32.5 Frequency distribution of losses for rectangle bottoms with downside breakouts. The two tallest columns represent the most likely loss.
446
Description
UpBr
Number of premature breakoutsoccurring in genuine breakouts
5o
Volume at premature breakoutsversus 25-day moving average
Do
Number of formations with prematurebreakouts having both upside anddownside premature breakouts
0
Number of premature breakouts insame direction as genuine breakout
0
Number of premature breakouts indifferent direction from genuine breakout
5
448
Rectangle Bottoms
Trading Tactics
breakout to help with identification. Volume, incidentally is compared with the25-day moving average. Premature downside breakouts have more than double (224%) the average volume, whereas premature breakouts in formationswith downside breakouts are above average (217% for upside premature breakouts and 121% for downside premature breakouts) too. Just two formationshave premature breakouts in both directions. These just happen to occur whenthe real breakout is downward.The last set of statistics in the table suggests premature breakouts are onopposite sides to the real breakout. A premature breakout is when prices closeoutside the formation boundaries but quickly rejoin the formation. The realbreakout comes later as prices soar away from the formation, usually without
449
since the breakout is at the top of the formation. Mapping the performanceover the yearly price range shows that those with upside breakouts do bestwhen they break out in the center third of the yearly range, scoring an averagereturn of 49%. It is also odd that those near the yearly high do worst, withgains averaging 36%. Usually, the momentum players grab the stock near theyearly high and bid it up.The best performing downside breakouts are those that occur within athird of the yearly low, with losses of 21 %. It seems that a stock having a toughtime only sees things get worse after a downside breakout from a rectangle.This follows the belief that you should short stocks making the new low listand not those making the new high list.
returning.
Table 32.3 shows that most genuine breakouts are on opposite sides ofthe premature breakout. Only 36% of downside breakouts have breakouts in
the same direction, whereas most of the others are on opposite sides. Combining the statistics indicates that 75% (12/16) of the genuine breakouts are on theside opposite the premature breakout.Table 32.4 shows breakout statistics. Rectangle bottoms with downsidebreakouts show the most likelihood of prices returning to the formation (70%).Upside breakouts have throwbacks occurring 61% of the time. Both numbersare good. The average time to complete a throwback is 11 days and for a pullback it is 9 days, which is about the same as other formation types. The time to
reach the ultimate high is a long 9 months for upside breakouts but a short 2'/imonths for downside breakouts. This makes sense as a large gain takes moretime to travel further.Where in the yearly price range do most breakouts occur? Most upsidebreakouts happen in the center third of the yearly price range. Downside breakouts occur in the lowest third of the yearly price range. I expected upsidebreakouts to show the highest population in the upper third of the price rangeTable 32.4Breakout Statistics for Rectangle BottomsDescription
Upside Breakout
Downside Breakout
Throwback/pullback
25 or 61%
38 or 70%
Average time to throwback/pullback completion
11 days
9 days
Days to ultimate high/low
9 months (275 days)
2.5 months (78 days)
Percentage of breakouts occurringnear 12-month price low (L), center(C), or high (H)
LI 9%, C50%, H31%
L56%, C32%, H12%
Percentage gain for each 12-monthlookback period
L45%, C49%, H36%
L21%, C16%, HI 6%
Trading TacticsTable 32.5 lists trading tactics for rectangle bottoms. The first tactic is todetermine the predicted price target using the measure rule. The rule first findsdie height of the formation by subtracting the lowest low from the highestTable 32.5Trading Tactics for Rectangle BottomsTrading Tactic
Explanation
Measure rule
Measure the height of the rectangle by subtracting the valueof the trendlines from each other. For upside breakouts, addthe height to the top trendline; for downside breakouts,subtract the value from the bottom trendline. The result is theexpected minimum price move. For a maximum price target,measure the length of the rectangle and extend it verticallyabove the top trendline (for upside breakouts) or below thebottom one (downside breakouts). The price then becomesthe maximum expected move.
Wait for breakout
Since you cannot be sure in which direction a rectangle willbreak out, wait for prices to dose outside the trendline beforetrading in the direction of the breakout.
Tall rectangle scalp
If the rectangle is tall enough, sell or sell short near the toptrendline and buy or cover near the bottom trendline.
Throwbacks, pullbacks
If you have a downside breakout, watch for a pullback andshort the stock or add to your short position once prices begindescending again. Use the same technique for an upsidebreakout: Wait for the throwback then initiate or add to yourposition when prices rise.
Other
Watch for rectangles forming as the corrective phase of ameasured move formation and adjust the target priceaccordingly. Rectangle reversals sometimes appear as flatbottom formations
450
Rectangle Bottoms
\J
Sample Trade
high. In essence, just subtract the value of the two trendlines from each other.Figure 32.6 shows an example of this. The top trendline is at a value of127/i6 and the bottom one is at 11. The difference, 17/16, is the formationheight. Add the height to the value of the top trendline to get the upside breakout target (137/g) and subtract it from the value of the lower trendline to get thedownside breakout target (99/i6). Some analysts suggest measuring the length(not the height) of the rectangle, flipping it vertically, and adding or subtracting it from the top or bottom trendline to get the maximum price move (forupside and downside breakouts, respectively). This sounds a bit far-fetched,but it is a handy guideline. Use it with caution as I have not verified how well
451
Shelby Williams Industries, Inc. (Furn/Home Furnishings, NYSE, SY)
it works.
Since you cannot predict the breakout direction with complete accuracy,wait for the breakout before investing. Place the trade after prices close outsidethe rectangle trendlines, then trade with the trend. If the formation is tallenough, consider placing an intraformation trade near the two trendlines.Short at the top when prices begin descending and cover when they reboundoff the bottom trendline (do not cover too soon as prices may continue moving down). Go long at the bottom and sell at the top trendline when pricesbegin falling. Again, wait for a direction change as prices may stage an upsidebreakout.Throwbacks and pullbacks allow investors another opportunity to place atrade, add to their position, or get out with a smaller loss. Take advantage of itbut wait for prices to complete their throwback or pullback before placing atrade or adding to a position. The reason is that prices may continue in theadverse direction instead of returning to the trendline and rebounding.Sometimes, rectangle bottoms form as the corrective phase of a measuredmove formation. See Measured Move Down for information on how to take
advantage of the situation. Occasionally a rectangle will mark the end of a substantial decline and appear like a flat bottom before prices rise.
Sample TradeFigure 32.6 shows a paper trade I made recently. The rectangle bottomappeared after prices dropped from a high of 205/g in October 1997. The dropwas a painful one but it did not occur all at once. Prices dropped quite rapidlyto 15 where they moved horizontally for 8 months. Then the second half of thedecline took over and prices reached a low of about 11.Prices bounced off the low several times, like a boy taking his first stepson a trampoline. They were tentative, shaky, with not much enthusiasm. Thenin mid-October 1998, prices touched the bottom trendline and moved quicklyacross the formation to tie the September high at 123/s. A few more oscillationsand the two trendline boundaries became apparent.
Apr 98
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
)an 99
Feb
Figure 32.6 Rectangle bottom followed by upside breakout. The measure ruleapplied to this rectangle bottom computes the formation height as the differencebetween the trendlines. Adding the difference to the value of the top trendlinegives an upside breakout target of
If you look at the overall picture, you might think that prices would continue down—a downside breakout (following the downward trend). I could nottell which direction prices would go, so I decided to wait for the breakout. Ifthe formation acted as a consolidation, then the breakout would be downward.However, with a two-step downtrend from the high at 205/8, this reminded meof a measured move down with a really long corrective phase. I thought itmight break out upward. If the rectangle was taller, I would try an intraformation trade (buy at 11'/s, sell at 123/8, then reverse).In early December, prices pierced the top trendline and closed above it;the rectangle staged an upside breakout. I noticed the breakout the day after ithappened and called in my trade. I received a fill at 13, midrange for the day.I estimated that a support zone had formed at 11 %, so I placed a stop at1 l5/s. Prices had stopped at this level just before the chart pattern formed andagain just before the December breakout. A better stop would have been justbelow the lower rectangle trendline because both trendlines act as support orresistance zones. However, I did not want to take such a large loss (15%+).Even paper trades go wrong and that is what happened here. A day afterbuying the stock, prices returned to the rectangle formation to do more work.Prices slowly, agonizingly, moved lower until hitting my stop in late December. I took a paper loss of 11%.
452
Rectangle Bottoms
33
It turns out that I placed a trade on a premature breakout. The statisticssuggest that after an upside premature breakout, the genuine breakout direction should be down. Well, that did not work out either. Prices shot out the topof the formation. As I write this, they are hovering about 13, my purchaseprice last time. I suspect prices might throw back to the formation again. If thathappens and they start moving up again, perhaps I will buy the stock for real.
Rectangle Tops
RESULTS SNAPSHOT
Upside BreakoutsAppearance
Prices trend up to the formation then oscillatebetween two horizontal trendlines before breakingout upward.
Reversal or consolidation
Long-term (over 6 months) bullish consolidation
Failure rate
2%
Average rise
52%, with the most likely rise between 20% and 30%
Volume trend
Downward
Premature breakout
11%
Throwbacks
53%
Percentage meetingpredicted price target
91%
Surprising finding
The actual breakout is opposite that shown bypremature breakouts 65% of the time.
See also
Rectangle Bottoms
Downside BreakoutsAppearance
Prices trend up to the formation then oscillatebetween two horizontal trendlines before breakingout downward.
453
454
Rectangle Tops
Reversal or consolidation
Short-term (up to 3 months) bearish reversal
Failure rate
0%
Average rise
20%, with most likely decline being 20%
Volume trend
Downward
Premature breakout
23%
Fullbacks
55%
Percentage meetingpredicted price target
77%
Surprising findings
The actual breakout is opposite that shown bypremature breakouts 65% of the time.
See also
Rectangle Bottoms
Rectangle tops with upside breakouts fail 2% of the time. The average rise isan astounding 52% with a likely gain between 20% and 30%. These numbersare excellent. With such a large gain, it is no surprise that the measure ruleworks out well with 91% of the formations hitting their price targets.Downside breakouts tell a similar tale, but one that is not quite as rosy.Downside breakouts have a 0% failure rate not because they are excellent performers, but because I did not find any that failed. I am sure there are rectangle tops with downside breakouts that fail to move down by less than 5%. Theaverage loss is 20% with a strong likely decline of 20%, too. This is unusual but
it suggests there are few large declines to skew the average. A glance at the frequency distribution shows that the assumption is correct. The percentage offormations with downside breakouts meeting or exceeding the price target is77%, just below the 80% threshold that I consider reliable.The only surprising finding deals with premature breakouts. When a premature breakout occurs in a rectangle top, the probabilities suggest that thegenuine breakout occurs on the opposite side. This relationship is not as strongas for rectangle bottoms but it comes close.
Williams Companies Inc. (Natural Ga
Jan 93
Figure 33.1
Rectangle top with an upside b
a problem because it occurs too early in the
ognized as a rectangle.The volume pattern begins in the typiabout two-thirds of the way to the breakou
heavier as if building pressure for the upcovolume subsides as prices move horizontaover a week. When prices pierce the top tremarkably so. Volume just builds on the
since prices began sliding along the trendliPrices climb away cleanly. There is ait looks as if prices are trying to throw back
ing pressure is just too strong. The retrace
continue moving up.Why do rectangles form? A rectangle
Tour
the haves and the have-nots. Those that ow
identified a price at which they are willing
Figure 33.1 shows an example of a rectangle top. Prices begin their upwardtrek in June 1992 at 14 and reach the rectangle in May of the following year.Then prices consolidate for over a month, bouncing between overhead resistance at 245/s and support at 235/s. A trendline drawn across the minor highs ishorizontal as is the one connecting the minor lows. There are a number oftouches of both trendlines suggesting a reliable formation. At the start, pricesovershoot both up and down by peeking outside the two trendlines. This is not
price reaches that level, they sell, forcing
they quit dumping the stock. On the otherwho want to acquire the stock. They placebe the fair value. When prices fall to theiwhelm supply and the price rises. If this stbounce between one extreme and the othezontal trendline along the peaks and anoth
456
Rectangle Tops
Focus on Failures
457
formation takes shape. Eventually, one of the sides runs out of ammunition. Ifthe people selling their shares run out first, buying demand overwhelms supply and the price pierces the top trendline. If the buyers spend all their moneyand back away from the table, prices drop through the bottom of the rectangle. In either case, the shares continue in the breakout direction because ofgrowing demand (the price moves upward) or increasing supply (the pricetumbles).
Identification GuidelinesTable 33.1 shows identification guidelines for rectangle tops. Over the short tointermediate term, the price trend should be leading up to the formation. Thisupward trend is what distinguishes the formation from rectangle bottoms. Thedistinction is arbitrary; I wanted to see if there is any difference in the way thetwo perform.
As a rectangle forms, prices rise to a resistance level and fall back to a
May 95
Jun
|ul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 96
Feb
support area for another try. If this pattern continues, the minor highs can
be joined with a trendline drawn along the top of the formation, and anothertrendline can be drawn below the minor lows. The two trendlines are horizontal or nearly so. If there is a slight tilt to the trendline, do not worry. Aslight tilt is fine as long as it does not disturb the overall appearance of a congestion region.To qualify as a rectangle, prices must touch each trendline at least twice.
The touches need not alternate from one trendline to the other, but the minorhighs and lows must be distinct. You do not want to see two touches along thetop as part of the same minor high. Instead, look for two distinct hills and two
valleys at a minimum.The volume trend varies from formation to formation but usuallyrecedes. Many of the charts accompanying this chapter show such a trend.
Figure 33.2 shows what a rectangle top looks like. Prices are trending up lead-
Figure 33.2 A rectangle top with receding volume trend. Although most rectangles exhibit receding volume, do not automatically exclude those with rising volume trends. Three profitable trading opportunities are marked where prices crossfrom one side to the other.
ing to the rectangle. Then they bounce between support at 54 and overhead
resistance at 59'/2. The wide, tall rectangle has plenty of trendline touches. Ifyou are lucky, you might be able to get three or four trades from this formation (as marked by the numbers on the figure). Each side-to-side pass represents a price change of about $5, plenty of profit opportunity to be of interestto the more adventurous trader.The volume pattern trends downward over the formation. Near the end,the volume spurts upward propelling prices higher until they break out and
zoom to new highs. The statistics reviewed later in this chapter suggest that theTable 33.1Identification Characteristics of Rectangle TopsCharacteristic
Discussion
Rising price trend
The short- to intermediate-term price trend leading to theformation should be up.
Horizontal trendlines
Two horizontal (or nearly so) trendlines outline the price action,one above the minor highs and one below the minor lows.
Touches
There should be at least two touches of each trendline (at leastfour touchs total).
Volume
Volume usually recedes until the breakout.
majority of rectangles have receding volume trends. That is true but it may bedifficult to see. I would not exclude a rectangle formation simply because the
volume trend is not rising.
Focus on FailuresOf the nearly 300 rectangles I reviewed, just 5 fail. After separating rectanglesinto tops and bottoms, the top variety has just three failures. Figure 33.3 shows
an example of a failure. Prices break out of the formation at 35s/8 and moveupward to a new high of 37. However, they stall in mid-April before turning
458
Rectangle Tops
Table 33.General Statistics for RDescription
Upside B
Number of formations in 500stocks from 1991 to 1996
140
Reversal or consolidationFailure rate
Figure 33.3 A 5% failure of a rectangle top. Prices follow the existing trendupward but only for a little gain before heading back into the rectangle and shooting out the other side.
140 cons3 or 2%
Average rise/decline of successfulformations
52%
Most likely rise/decline
20% to 3
Of those succeeding, numbermeeting or exceeding pricetarget (measure rule)
125 or 91
Average formation length(start to breakout)
3 months
Number showing downwardvolume trend
89 or 64%
Performance when volume istrending down and up
Down 55%
Volume for breakout day andnext 5 days compared withday before breakout
1 64%, 1
105%, 11
around and throwing back to the formation. Once prices choose a new direction, they head down at a good clip. The brief climb represents a 4% pricechange. I consider anything less than a 5% move in the breakout direction to
ures to be a statistical anomaly. I am sure th
be a failure. The failure confirms when prices close beyond the side opposite
failure rates underscore that rectangles are
the breakout. It is what I call a 5% failure.I flag 5% failures because I want a method to catalog poorly performingchart patterns. Look at this another way: Had you bought this stock when itleft the rectangle top, you would be upset when it throws back to the formationand continues lower. You might even take a loss if you are not quick on thetrigger. Fortunately, rectangle failures are rare. I uncovered no failures in rectangle tops with downside breakouts. That does not mean they will never
For upside breakouts, the average rise i40% gain. For downside breakouts, the declgains and losses range from 20% to 30%.bers, especially for upside breakouts.
occur. It just means I did not spot any in the stocks under review.
StatisticsTable 33.2 shows a number of statistics related to rectangle tops. When combined, I uncovered just over 200 rectangles in 500 stocks over 5 years' worth of
come up with a few failures. However, for
Figure 3 3.4 shows a frequency distribupside breakouts. I exclude the catch-all cathe tallest columns (20% and 30%) represemost column illustrates why the overall averber of outsized gains pull up the average). Wyou may conclude that your gains will probFor gains up to 30%, only about a third ofrange. The remainder have gains over 30%Figure 33.5 shows a frequency distribu
daily price data. Most of the formations are consolidations of the prevailingtrend, especially for downside breakouts that have 140 consolidations.
breakouts. This figures shows that 66% of thing to 20% or less. That is a warning, sugtangles with downside breakouts may be le
Upside breakouts have a 2% failure rate, an exceedingly low value. Downside breakouts do even better with no formations failing. I consider zero fail-
shows why the most likely rise is the same as
columns in the upper range to distort the av
Statistics
461
A discussion of the measure rule occurs in the Trading Tactics section of
this chapter, but it involves computing the height of the rectangle and addingor subtracting it from the breakout point. The result is the expected targetprice. For upside breakouts, 91% of the formations meet or exceed their pricetargets, whereas only 65% of rectangles with downside breakouts make theirs.
I consider values above 80% to be reliable.The average formation length is about 3 months for both breakout types.
Over 3 months' time 64% of upside breakouts and 71% of downside breakoutsshow receding volume trends. Some analysts suggest that a receding volumetrend is key to a sound rectangle. When I examined this hypothesis, I discoveredthat rectangles with upside breakouts and a receding volume trend outperform
Figure 33.4 Frequency distribution of gains for rectangle tops with upside breakouts. The most likely gain is in the range of 20% to 30%, but several large gains(over 90%) overshadow the results.
their rising volume counterparts with gains of 55% versus 48%. Downsidebreakouts are more evenly matched with losses at 20% versus 19%.Table 33.2 shows the results of a comparison of breakout volume with theday before the breakout. I used the day before the breakout instead of the average volume because of the receding volume trend. The day before the breakoutmay be the lowest value in the series and an average volume would probably
involve a higher unfair comparison. Even so, volume is high on the breakoutday and remains high through the following week for both breakout types.Table 33.3 shows statistics related to premature breakouts. I define a premature breakout to be when prices close outside the rectangle trendlines andyet return to the formation. For upside breakouts, there are 15 formationswith premature breakouts and 14 associated with formations that eventuallybreakout downward.
The volume during a premature breakout is higher than the 25-day moving average of the volume, as you would expect. This means it is difficult orimpossible to distinguish a premature breakout from a genuine one. Table33.3 shows that premature upside breakouts in formations with a genuineTable 33.3Premature Breakout Statistics for Rectangle TopsDescription
Figure 33.5
Frequency distribution of losses for rectangle tops with downside
breakouts. Two out of three formations have losses less than 20%.
460
UpsideBreakout
DownsideBreakout
Number showing premature breakouts
1 5 or 1 1 %
14 or 23%
Volume at premature breakout versus25-day moving average
Up 1 84%,down 1 30%
Up 1 46%,down 1 32%
Number of formations with prematurebreakouts having both upside anddownside premature breakouts
2 or 1 2%
0
Number of premature breakouts insame direction as genuine breakout
5 or 29%
6 or 43%
Number of premature breakouts indifferent direction from genuine breakout
12 or 71%
8 or 57%
462
Rectangle Tops
Trading Tactics
upside breakout have volume that is 184% of the average. Downside prematurebreakouts in the same formation type have volume that is 130% above theaverage. Only two chart patterns have up and down premature breakouts in thesame formation.Does a premature breakout signal the direction of the actual breakout?Both breakout types suggest a premature breakout is opposite the genuinebreakout direction. A genuine upside breakout follows a downside prematurebreakout 71% of the time. Downside breakouts are not so reliable: Only 57%of the formations with premature upside breakouts later show genuine downside breakouts. If we combine the premature breakout statistics and compare itwith the total, we find 65% of the premature breakouts are on the opposite sideof the actual breakout.Table 33.4 shows statistics related to genuine breakouts. Throwbacks tothe formation top and pullbacks to the bottom occur in 53% and 55% of theformations, respectively. The numbers are not high enough to suggest a trading tactic to take advantage of them.Both breakout directions complete their throwbacks and pullbacks in 11days, which is about average for these types of retraces. No formation has athrowback or pullback more than 30 days after the breakout. Any price retraceafter a month I consider due to normal price action, not a throwback orpullback.For upside breakouts, it takes about 8 months to reach the ultimate high
463
56% when they break out from formations near the yearly high. Downside
breakouts are about evenly split across the three categories.
Trading TacticsTable 33.5 explains trading tactics for rectangle tops. The measure rule predicts the minimum target price. First, compute the height of the rectangle bysubtracting die value of the lower trendline from the upper one. Add the difference to the top trendline for upside breakouts and subtract it from the bottom trendline for downside breakouts. The result is the target price.
For an example of the measure rule and how it applies to rectangles, consider the rectangle top pictured in Figure 33.6. The top trendline has a valueof 383/4, whereas the bottom one perches at 333/4. The difference of 5 is theheight of the rectangle. If this rectangle were to break out downward, then thetarget price would be 283/4 or the lower trendline value minus the formationheight. Since the breakout is upward, add the height to the top trendline, giving a target price of 433/4. Prices reach the target about a month after thebreakout.
I have read that to compute the maximum price move, one physicallymeasures the length of the rectangle and applies it to the top trendline forupside breakouts or subtracts it from the bottom trendline for downward
and almost 3 months for downside breakouts to bottom. If you are a long-terminvestor of a rectangle top with an upside breakout, be prepared to wait for thelong term before cashing out. For downside breakouts, a short-term play isin order.
Where in the yearly price range do most formations occur? Both breakout types occur in the highest third of the yearly range. Mapping performance
Table 33.5Trading Tactics for Rectangle TopsTrading Tactic
Explanation
Measure rule
Measure the height of the rectangle from trendline to trendline.For upside breakouts, add the height to the top trendline; fordownside breakouts, subtract it from the bottom trendline. Theresult is the minimum expected move. For a maximum pricetarget, measure the length of the rectangle and extend itvertically above the top trendline (for upside breakouts) orbelow the bottom one (downside breakouts). The pricebecomes the maximum expected move.
Consolidation
More than two out of three rectangles act as consolidations ofthe prevailing trend. Expect the breakout to continue the trend.
Wait for breakout
Since you cannot be sure in which direction a rectangle willbreak out, wait for prices to close outside the trendline beforetrading in the direction of the breakout.
Tall rectangle scalp
If the rectangle is tall enough, sell or sell short near the toptrendline and buy or cover near the bottom one.
Other
Watch for rectangles forming as the corrective phase of ameasured move up formation and adjust the target priceaccordingly. Rectangle reversals sometimes appear as flat topformations
over the range shows that the best performing upside breakouts have gains ofTable 33.4Breakout Statistics for Rectangle TopsDescription
Upside Breakout
Downside Breakout
Throwback/pullback
74 or 53%
34 or 55%
Average time to throwback/pullback completion
11 days
11 days
Days to ultimate high/low
8 months (244 days)
3 months (82 days)
Percentage of breakoutsoccurring near 12-monthprice low (L), center (C),or high (H)
L3%, C21%, H76%
LI 8%, C36%, H46%
Percentage gain for each1