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List | organize | Update | *e MrSwing Lite is a free newsletter that is published once a week - it identifiesseveral stocks that are good long and short swing trading opportunities. Youcan look at the price pattern and obtain the necessary quote information(previous day’s high, low and close) using web sites likewww.yahoo.quotes.com or www.stockchartz.com.
Not surprisingly, MrSwing recommends using SwingTracker to examine theprice patterns and quote information because it is specifically designed forswing trading. Choose the tools that suit your needs and your budget.5 Pattern Recognition Criteria
While looking at a chart can often tell you whether a stock is appropriate for swingtrading, it is very time consuming to look at charts, particularly if you look foropportunities every day. Another way to identify good stocks is to use software thatcan scan all of the listed stocks based on a series of algebraic equations thatrepresent the characteristics of a good chart pattern. I use SwingTracker to
accomplish this task.
Before discussing the specifics of pattern recognition criteria, we'll brieflyconsider the measures used in the algebraic equations. Some of the measures aresimple descriptive variables (e.g., the high price for the previous day or the averagevolume over the past 20 days). Other measures are based on technical analysiswhich is discussed in more detail in the Appendix. Technical analysis has manydifferent indicators from a simple moving average to a complex oscillator. It is notnecessary to have an in-depth understanding of technical analysis to be a successfulswing trader, however, it is helpful to have a rudimentary understanding of how we
approach swing trading pattern recognition.
5.1 Technical Analysis Measures used to RecognizeSwing Trading Patterns
To begin with, we typically restrict our selections to stocks that are at least $12 inprice, having an average (20 day) daily volume of at least 500,000 shares. Sincemarket makers can more easily manipulate low price, low volume stocks, we stay
away from them.
For long swings we are interested in identifying stocks that are in an uptrend. Oneof the indicators we use is a simple moving average (SMA). A moving average issimply the average closing price for a particular number of days. It’s called a movingaverage because on each new day, the current day’s price is added to the averagewhile the oldest price is dropped. We typically focus on three moving averages,those based on 10 days, 20 days and 50 days. All moving averages smooth theprice movement and make it easier to identify trends. It is also significant to knowwhere today’s price is relative to the moving averages and whether the shorter time-frame moving average is above or below the longer time-frame moving average.
Two indicators that a stock is in an uptrend are:e Today’s closing price is above both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages
e The 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average
When looking for a long swing, we would like to identify stocks that areexperiencing a brief decline (pullback). We can identify a 3-day pullback as follows.
e Today’s high price is lower than yesterday’s highe Yesterday’s high is lower than the high the day before
We also use a technical indicator developed by Dr. Alexander Elder called the ForceIndex. This index combines the magnitude of the price change with the direction ofthe change and the trading volume. In order to confirm the relative force behind anuptrend and a pullback, we use a 3-day moving average and a 13-day movingaverage of the Force Index. The following conditions demonstrate that the bearshave been winning the short-term battle while bulls are dominating the longer
frame:
e The 3-day moving average of the Force Index is less than 0, ande The 13-day moving average of the Force Index is greater than 0
Another technical indicator we like to use is the Directional Movement Index (DMI)that was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. It is used to determine whether a stock istrending or not trending (i.e., moving sideways). In SwingTracker we provide thetwo components of this indicator - the Positive Directional Index (+DI) and theNegative Directional Index (-DI) - along with a 20-day moving average based onthese two measures (ADX). An uptrend is confirmed if ...
e ADX is higher than 30
e +DI is greater than -DI
Our most successful pattern recognition formulas are available to all visitors (free ofcharge) at www.mrswing.com in the SwingLab section of the web site. You cancopy the formulas into SwingTracker and scan all listed stocks at any time.. Theseare the same formulas that provide the MasterSwings recommendations. The
formulas will be built into the next version of SwingTracker.6 The Master Plan — Entry and exit rules that
insure successful swing trading5
6.1 WHAT is the Master Plan
The Master Plan is a set of rules that determines when to enter and exit a trade. Atfirst, it might seem a little complicated, but once you have place a few trades usingthe system, you'll realize it’s really quite simple. The best part about the MasterPlan is that you don’t need to use judgment. The rules are mechanical. Twoobstacles to successful trading are the human emotions of fear and greed. Byfollowing the Master Plan, these emotions will not influence your behavior, nor willthey interfere with your success.
To keep it simple, we'll first focus on the long trade. The rules for a short trade aresimply the mirror image of the rules for a long trade. An example of a long swingopportunity is shown below. The price has declined (pulled back) and you are bullishon the stock.
('
     
100
iy qti" ,
decline 30
lang|swing
60
 
 
 6.2 Taking a Profit and Preserving Capital
An important aspect of the Master Plan is setting a profit target and preserving
capital. The approach is fairly conservative - the profit target is approximately 7%
with a potential loss capped at 4%. The actual profit is likely to be more than 7%
while a loss is likely to be smaller than 4%. Here’s how it works.
Once the target price is reached (7% above the entry price), half of theshares are sold, locking in a 7% profit. The other shares remain invested tobenefit from any further increase in price.
If the price moves against the trade, the maximum loss tolerated is 4%. Thispreserves capital for future trades.
Typically, more trades will produce a profit than a loss. The net result isprofit.
The movement of the entire market is very powerful. When the market ismoving with your trades, a very high percentage of your trades will beprofitable.
When the entire market is moving against your trade, a higher than expectedpercentage of your trades will lose. The stop loss protects you fromexcessive losses.
6.2.1 Profit is taken using a “sell limit” order — once the
price is reached, the specified number of shares
are sold.
6.2.2 Capital is protected using a “stop loss” order —
when the stop price is reached, all the shares aresold. 
6.3 When to Enter the Trade
Using the Master Plan, swing trading opportunities are identified after the marketcloses. Trades are entered in the morning, usually within the first half hour oftrading. When you enter the trade (and the decision rule you use) depends onwhether or not the stock has gapped up or down from the previous day’s closingprice. According to the Master Plan, a stock is considered to have gapped up whenit opens 50 cents or more higher than the previous day’s close; it is considered tohave gapped down when it opens 50 cents lower than the previous day’s close.Most frequently, the stock price will open within 50 cents of the previous day’sclose, neither gapping up nor gapping down.
e The most common occurrence - the stock opens within 50 cents ($0.50) of
the previous day’s close - the order can be placed a few minutes after themarket opens.
e Occasionally a stock gaps up 50 cents or more compared to the previousday’s close - the order is placed at least 30 minutes after the market opens.
e Occasionally a stock gaps down 50 cents or more compared to the previousday’s close - the order is placed approximately 5 minutes after the marketopens.
e To summarize, if the stock gaps in the same direction as the trade, wait 30minutes, and if the stock gaps in the opposite direction of the trade, wait5 minutes.
6.4 How to Enter the Trade
As with when to trade, how to enter depends on whether the stock gaps up/downor not. Typically, the stock price doesn’t gap up or down and the entry price isbased on the previous day’s prices. When the stock gaps up or down, the entry priceis not based on the previous day’s prices, but on the current day’s prices. Whetherbased on the previous day’s prices or the current day’s prices, the entry rules are the
same.
6.5
The most common occurrence - the stock opens within 50 cents($0.50) of the previous day’s close - buy the stock the moment it trades6 cents (1/16) above the previous day’s high. This can be accomplished byusing a buy stop order. This increases the likelihood that the price is movingin the direction of the bullish (long) trade.
Occasionally a stock gaps up or down 50 cents or more - buy the stockthe moment it trades 6 cents above the high of the new day. This would be30 minutes after the market opens for a gap up or 5 minutes after themarket opens for a gap down.
What to do After the Trade is Executed
Once the trade is executed, the exit orders are placed.
The profit order - a sell limit order is placed at a price that is 7% above theentry price.
The capital preservation order - a sell stop (stop limit) order is placed at4% below the entry price OR 6 cents below the low of the day that wasused for the trade (whichever is higher) - for a stock that opened without agap the previous day sets the prices; for a stock that opened with a gap, theprice action before the day (high and low) sets the prices.6.6 What to do the Day After the Trade is Executed
As with when to trade and how to enter, the following day’s activity depends onwhether the stock gaps up/down or not. If the stock price doesn’t gap up or down,the stop loss is changed based on the previous day’s prices. If the stock gaps up ordown, the stop loss is changed based on the current day’s prices. Whether basedon the previous day’s prices or the current day’s prices, stop loss rule is the same.e When the stock opens within 50 cents ($0.50) of the previous day’sclose - if 6 cents below the previous day’s low is higher than yesterday’s
stop loss, raise the stop loss to this new price. This is known as raising thetrailing stop, which further limits the downside risk.
e When the stock gaps up or down 50 cents or more - wait 30 minutesfor a gap down or 5 minutes for a gap up - if 6 cents below the today’slow is higher than yesterday’s stop loss, raise the stop loss to this newprice.
6.7 What happens if the Trade is Not Executed
Let’s say that you are receiving recommendations from MasterSwings or MrSwingLite and your trade is not executed on the day the order is placed. You can repeatthe process for up to 5 trading days.
e If the stock gaps up or down, wait the appropriate amount of time (30
minutes for a gap up and 5 minutes for a gap down) - determine the entryand exit prices based on the current day’s prices.
e If the stock opens with 50 cents of yesterday’s close, the entry and exit pricesare based on the previous day’s prices.
The chart on the following page should make the trading rules clear.Long Swing
Stock Opens with a Gap
  
Okay to place order Wait 30 Minuteswhen market opens
Buy stop 6 cents aboveyesterday's highSell stop at whicheveris higher — 4% belowentry price or 6 centsbelow yesterday’s lowe Sell limit for half theshares at 7% abovethe purchase price
  
e Buy stop 6 centsabove today's price
e Sell stop at whicheveris higher — 4% belowentry price or 6 centsbelow today’s low
e Sell limit for half theshares at 7% abovethe purchase price
Stock is Purchased
 
No - Repeat for up to 5 trading daysYes
    
Repeat until the Noposition closes. Next DaySell stop closes Stock Opens with a Ga
the 2” half of P P Gapthe position. Up
Yes
 
       
¢ Wait 30 minutes
e Sell limit for 2 theshares remains thesame
e Sell limit for 7/2 theshares remains the e Wait 5 minutessame ¢ Sell limit for /2 thee Sell stop — whichever shares remains theis higher — same
e Sell stop — whicheveris higher —yesterday’s stop lossor 6 cents belowyesterday's low
yesterday’s stop loss ¢ Sell stop — whichever
or 6 cents below is higher —
yesterday’s low yesterday’s stop lossor 6 cents belowyesterday’s low
 6.8 Once half the shares close at a 7% profit, theother half remains open to “ride the wave”.When do we close the second half of the trade?
A trailing stop is used to close the 2™ half of the trade. Remember that a trailingstop is used to raise the sell stop (stop loss) during the trade. The same rulesapply (see 6.6 above). The shares are sold when the price drops to 6 cents below
the low of previous day (no gap on open) or the current day (gap on open).
6.9 The Short Swing - how we make money when wethink the price of the stock is going down
A short swing is used to make money when a stock’s price is predicted to go down.We sell short the stock. For those unfamiliar with shorting stocks, we sell the
stock without having previously owned it. Additional detail about shorting stocks canbe found the Appendix. For now, it is only necessary to know that our goal is to sell
the stock and buy it back at a lower price.
While anyone can sell short, you must make sure that your brokerage account isapproved for trading on margin. If you do not have a margin account, simply fillout the necessary forms with your current brokerage firm or open an account with
one of the firms recommended for swing trading.
A short swing is a mirror image of a long swing. The price of a stock inadowntrend tends to have periodic, short-term rallies (pull-ups) as the price moveslower. The set up for a short swing is the brief rally (or pull-up). The decisionrules in the Master Plan help enter the trade when the stock is resuming it’s
downward path.
A chart showing a downtrend that is conducive to short swing trading is shown on
the next page.Notice in the chart below that the downtrend is interrupted by short-term rallies(pull-ups). The trade is placed after a short-term rally (or pull-up), once the stock
resumes its downtrend.
The trade is entered on a day when the price falls below the low of the previous day.
 
 
200
short swing
Heo
ooincreases
 
 
The rules for entering and exiting a short swing are shown schematically on thenext page.
While the rules might seem somewhat complicated, several brokerage firms makethe process quite easy. Interactive Brokers - described in the next section -allows you to enter the three components of the trade all at the same time. Forashort swing they are:
e A sell stop to sell the stock when the price moves below the stop price
e A buy stop to buy back the shares if the price moves up 4%
e A buy limit to lock in profits (on % the shares) when the price drops 7%The schematic diagram provides instructions for how to adjust these prices on the
second day, third day, and so on, based on whether the stock has been sold shortor not. The schematic provides exit instructions as well.Short Swing
Yes
Stock Opens with a Gap
GapUp
e Okay to place orderwhen market opens
e Sell stop 6 cents below
yesterday's low Wait 30 Minutese Buy stop at whichever is
lower — 4% above entry
price or 6 cents above
yesterday’s highe Buy limit for 2 the
shares at 7% below the
purchase price
    
e Sell stop 6 centsbelow today’s price
e Buy stop at whicheveris lower — 4% aboveentry price or 6 centsabove today’s high
e Buy limit for V2 theshares at 7% belowthe purchase price
 
Stock is Sold Short
 
No - Repeat for up to 5 trading daysYes
            
Repeat until the
 
position closes. No Next Day YesBuy stop closes ithe 3° half of Stock Opens with a Gap Gap
Up
the position.
e Wait 5 minutes
e Buy limit for /2 theshares remains thesame
e Buy limit for 2 theshares remains the e Wait 30 minutessame e Buy limit for 2 thee Buy stop — whichever shares remains theis lower — same
e Buy stop — whicheveris lower —yesterday’s stop lossor 6 cents aboveyesterday’s high
yesterday's stop loss ¢ Buy stop — whichever
or 6 cents above is lower —
yesterday's high yesterday’s stop lossor 6 cents aboveyesterday’s high
 7.1 optionsXpress
optionsXpress is a discount broker that has many features to help the swingtrader. While the name suggests a specialist in options, you can trade stocks,bonds, and mutual funds as well. optionsXpress also has a unique autotradingservice called Xecute®™ which we use for several of our services including QQQSwings, OEX Swings, DIA Swings and SMH Swings. In the near future you willalso be able to trade our OptionSwings service using Xecute™. If you are asubscriber to one of our services, our trade recommendations go directly tooptionsXpress and they can automatically place the buy and sell orders in youraccount. This is particularly convenient for subscribers who are unable to watch the
market.
For swing traders, optionsXpress has a feature called One Cancels Other(OCO). Once the trade is placed, both closing sell orders can be placedsimultaneously (the limit and the stop order) - when one is executed, the other iscancelled. By the time this book is published, optionsXpress will also have afeature that allows a buy and sell order to be placed simultaneously. They continue
making improvements based on the needs of their customers.
Autotrading means that optionsXpress can executes your QQQ Swing traderecommendations automatically based on your specifications in your brokerage
account and sends QQQ Swings trade alerts.optionsXpress offers additional features that are valuable to all investors:
e Streaming real-time quotes including after hours pricese High-speed execution
e Low commissions (e.g., $19.95 for stocks, $14.95 for mutual funds and up to10 options contracts)
e State-of-the-art charting, technical analysis and order entrye Up-to-the-minute commentary and market statistics
e features specifically designed for options traders - the ability to place easilytrade calls, puts, spreads, straddles, strangles, butterfly’s etc.
e tools specifically designed for options traders including Option Dragon (ascreening tool) and Option Pricer
e Options can be traded in retirement accounts and custodial accounts
You can open an account at http://www.optionsxpress.com/8 The Essentials of Technical Analysis
8.1 Intro
We humans have a very hard time making fast decisions with complicated info. Thatis why, as human traders, we try to simplify trading as much as possible, in order toscan fast & accurate trading opportunities in a few seconds. As Albert Einstein used
to say: keep things as simple as possible nut not any simpler!The following Technical Analysis (TA) tools are part of the daily charting arsenal:* Candle stick* Volume»  Equivolume= MA (???)«Force Index* DMI
=» Up/Down/In/Out
8.2 Why does Technical Analysis work?
Simply because the large professional traders cannot help leaving behindconsiderable evidence regarding their opinion on the direction of the market: volume
provides clues as to the intensity of a given price move...
The key is psychology: you trade people, not stocks. People never change...mosttraders keep on making the same mistakes again and again...luckily for us. Read this
again and think about it!
8.3 The Basics
A stock price is determined by an exchange between buyers and sellers. If therehappens to be more buyers than sellers then the market goes up. On the contrary, if
there happens to be more sellers than buyers then the market goes down. Logical!The price at which a stock is offered affects the trader's decision. If a trader is longand the stock starts to decline, the trader could be forced to close his position. Ifshort, he might do likewise on a rising stock.
When a trader takes a long position, he becomes a potential seller, while shortpositions are held by potential buyers. As prices change due to buying and sellingpressure, information about the condition of the stock is revealed by the combination
of price and volume action.
8.4 Japanese Candle sticks
In the 1600s, the Japanese developed a method of technical analysis to analyze theprice of rice contracts. This technique is called candlestick charting. Steven Nison iscredited with popularizing candlestick charting and is now recognized as the leadingexpert on their interpretation.
Candlestick charts display the open, high, low, and closing prices in a format similarto a modern-day bar-chart, but in a manner that extenuates the relationshipbetween the opening and closing prices. Candlestick charts are simply a new way oflooking at price; they don't involve any calculations.
HighClose
‘OpenLow
Figure 3: An open candle stick chartHighOpen
CloseLow
Figure 4: a closed candle stick chart
8.5 Volume
Volume is simply the number of shares traded during a given timeframe (e.g., hour,day, week, month, etc.). The analysis of volume is a basic yet very importantcomponent of technical analysis. Volume provides clues as to the intensity of a given
price move.
High volume levels are characteristic of market tops when there is a strongconsensus that prices will move higher. High volume levels are also very common atthe beginning of new trends (i.e., when prices break out of a trading range). Also,
just before market bottoms, volume will often increase due to panic-driven selling.
Volume can help determine the strength of an existing trend. A strong up-trendshould have higher volume on the upward legs of the trend, and lower volume on thedownward (corrective) legs. Similarly, strong downtrends usually have higher volumeon the downward legs of the trend and lower volume on the upward (corrective)
legs.
8.6 Equivolume
Equivolume displays prices in a manner that emphasizes the relationship betweenprice and volume. Equivolume was developed by Richard W. Arms, Jr., and is
explained in greater detail in his book “Volume Cycles in the Stock Market”
Instead of displaying volume as an "afterthought" on the lower margin of a chart,Equivolume combines price and volume in a two-dimensional box. The top line of thebox is the high for the period and the bottom line is the low for the period. The widthof the box is the unique feature of Equivolume - it represents the volume for the
period.“
| dyetow
VolumeFigure 5: Equivolume
The shape of each Equivolume box provides a picture of the supply and demand forthe security during a specific trading period. Short and wide boxes (heavy volumeaccompanied with small changes in price) tend to occur at turning points, while talland narrow boxes (light volume accompanied with large changes in price) are morelikely to occur in established trends.
Especially important are boxes that penetrate support or resistance levels, since
volume confirms penetrations
A "power box" is one in which both height and width increase substantially. Powerboxes provide excellent confirmation of a breakout. A narrow box, due to light
volume, casts doubt on the validity of a breakout in question.
We always look at volume in relation with price movement:
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File Chart Indicators Favorites View Utilities Time MrSwing Help
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Figure 6: Volume
8.7 Moving Averages
A Moving Average (MA) is an indicator that shows the average value of a security'sprice over a period of time. When calculating a moving average, a mathematicalanalysis of the security's average value over a predetermined time period is made.
As the security's price changes, its average price moves up or down.
 
Simple MA = (P1 + P2+...+Pn)/n
where P is the price being averaged and n is the number of days in the MA
 
There are five popular types of moving averages: simple (also referred to asarithmetic), exponential, triangular, variable, and weighted. Moving averages can becalculated on any data series including a security's open, high, low, close, volume, or
another indicator. I use only the 10-20 & 50 day simple MA on closing prices.
 
 
 
TRENDS UpTrend:
  
 
= Higher Highs & Higher Lows
» Rising MA10 & MA20«Higher volume on the upward legs» closing prices ABOVE the MA20 & MA5O
*» an Uptrend stock will find support at either the 20or 50 day MA
DownTrend:=» Lower Highs & Lower Lows«Falling MA10 & MA20» Higher volume on the downward legs» closing prices BELOW the MA20 & MA50
» a downtrend stock will find resistance at either the20 or 50 day MA
 
 File Chart Indicators Favorites View Utilities Time MrSwing Help
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QQQ - NASDAQ 100 TRUST (Daily 12/14/2001)
 
400DMiTrad't) —+D! —ADX 8060: = = Fy—=—_—_—_— —_ —8.0Force Index x10,000,000 ee 0
 
 
SwingTracker©
8.8 Force IndexForce Index is an oscillator developed by Dr. Alexander Elder in his excellent book:“Trading for a Living”.Force Index combines the three most essential pieces of market information:= the direction of price change«its extent«its trading volume.It provides a new, practical way of using volume to make trading decisions.
Force Index Force Index = Volume(today) * (Close(today) - Close(yesterday))
Although Force Index can be used raw, I prefer to smooth them with movingaverage:
Larry’s Index FI-3days MA & FI-13days MAA 3-day MA of Force Index is a very sensitive indicator which shows the short-termbattle between the bulls and the bears. And the 13-day MA of Force Index identifiesthe longer-term battle between bulls and bears.
BUY opportunity :» FI-13MA => 0» FI-3MA <=0
=» UPTRENDForce Index
SELL opportunity:
» FI-13MA =<0» FI-3MA >= 0
» DOWNTREND
 
 
 
Li lolx!
 
 
 
 
File Chart Indicators Favorites View Utilities Time MrSwing Help<< | (Econ) Zoom Out | ae | Tracker | Scan | Quote | (GTRAGNISAVIR - AVIRON (Daily 12/14/2001)aes 400DMi(Trad'!) ——+D! —ADX aorage, Sa 822.0Force Index x1,000,000 —SNA?ee ee oc hale onairar ates ncmeter ert a ieTst Stent 0AVIR eo = 48.0—— 440Sa 00( 4 poe ao 36.0cat La 32.0ss aon 28.0Oct Nov Dec
 
 
Figure 7: moving index8.9 Directional Moving Index
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) is a trend-following indicator developed by J.Welles Wilder, Jr., designed to determine whether a security is in a trending or non-trending market. Since the market is in a strong trend only about 30% of the timeand in sideways about 70% of the time, this indicator is used to capture the period
when the market shows significant trending or directional behavior.
The calculation of the DMI is fairly complex and consists of three lines:
 
+DI: current positive directional index, the range of highs dividedby the price range over the last day and previous close, smoothed
over a given number of periods.
-DI: current negative directional index, the range of lows dividedby the price range over the last day and previous close, smoothed
over a given number of periods.
ADX: modified moving average of the difference of +DI and -DIDMI divided by the sum of +DI and -DI, multiplied by 100.
UpTrend:» ADX > 30 the higher the better* +DI> -DI
DownTrend:
» ADX > 30 the higher the better
» -DI > +DI
 
 
 
8.10 Up/Down/In/Out
Up/Down/In/Out is a chart overlay available on SwingTracker (software I recentlydeveloped) that color-codes individual bars or candlesticks based on pricemovement. It relates the current high and low price with the previous high and low
price.
Up (Green) indicates the current high is higher than the previous high and thecurrent low is higher than the previous low.Down (Red) indicates the current high is lower than the previous high and the
current low is lower than the previous low.
In (Yellow) indicates the current high is lower than the previous high, and the
current low is higher than previous low.
Out (Blue) indicates that the current high is higher than the previous high, and the
current low is lower than the previous low.9 SwingTracker
SwingTracker 4.0 is quote, scan and charts software designed specifically for SwingTraders. In addition to our acclaimed features like real-time intraday technicalcharts, sophisticated stock tool and dozens of technical indicators, we have the
following special features for swing traders:» Equivolume and ForceIndex indicators as described in my education section
«Build your own stock