drawdown thatmay require you to add funds to your account. Georgeconfirmed the value of this procedure in his response.
Allin all, my interview with George Lane revealed fewsurprises, As a veteran of about half a century in futurestrading, this “old timer” offers advice for all who seek suc-cess in futures trading. His years of experience in markets ofall types are valuable to us. His recommendations, attitudesand opinions underscore the basic premises of this book.
ll,
Conclusion
 
As a veteran trader and analyst, George Lane ranksamong the top authorities in his field. His interview revealsthat he is also in touch with the experiences, psychologicalqualities and perceptions that facilitate trading success. Donot discount his point of view. Do not take lightly whatGeorge has learned in a lifetime of trading.
 
lA,
Conrad Leslie
 
Forecasts That Move Markets
I first met Conrad Leslie in the early 1970s after beingexposed to—actually, subjected to the consequences of—hiscrop forecasts for a number of years. I say this because hiscrop reports, particularly during my early trading in the1960s and 1970s, almost always resulted in substantial mar-ket moves subsequent to their release and often in anticipa-tion of their release. Conrad’s work not only deserves atten-tion for its excellence in research but also for its ability tomove markets.
AsI recall, I first met Conrad Leslie when I was a speakerat a Futures magazine seminar in the 1970s, which he at-tended. After finishing the formal portion of my presenta-tion I took questions from the audience. While most ques-tions were the typical “what are gold prices going to do thisyear?” queries, one gentleman repeatedly asked direct, prob-ing and challenging questions. Later I learned that this manwas Conrad Leslie. He introduced himself; I was shaking
6970 # Market Masters
the hand of a man who was the grain and soybean cropforecaster sine qua non. As we chatted briefly, | was taken byseveral aspects of his personality: First, he is a humble,reserved, unpretentious man. In spite of his longevity andrespect in the industry, Conrad does not couch himself inhaughty attitudes, conceit or self-importance. He is genuineand down-to-earth. He displays emotion, affection andrespect for my time as well as that of others.
Second, Conrad is persistent. If his questions are notanswered, he probes further. And third, he is highly moti-vated to learn. When I met this man, who is known as acornerstone of fundamental analysis, he was learning abouttechnical analysis. He confessed to his shortcomings andindicated two facts that he considered important in themarkets in addition to fundamentals: technical analysis andtrader psychology. Conrad has a joie de vivre that, whencombined with his probing looks, incisive questions andstrong motivation, presented an awesome picture.
We can learn much from Conrad Leslie’s responses.
A Biographical Sketch
Conrad Leslie has been studying the future and thefutures markets for more than 40 years. The New York Timesidentifies him as the country’s most widely read privatecrop forecaster. Reuters, Dow-Jones, United Press Internationaland other news services distribute his monthly soybean,cornand wheat production estimates to agribusiness peoplearound the world.
Conrad is a member of the Chicago Board of Trade andpresident of The Leslie Analytical Organization. His marketinterpretations reflect many years of business experienceas a commodity broker and futures market analyst withmajor New York Stock Exchange member firms.
Conrad's penetrating daily grain market observationsand daily grain and livestock price forecasts are presentedeach morning to brokers and their clients through ADMInvestor Services.
 
7/ Conrad Leslie @ 71
ll,
An Interview with Conrad Leslie
What precipitated your desire to trade, and when?
My original entry into the world and industries of fi-nance began in 1949 when | graduated from MerrillLynch's eighth New York training class to become abroker assigned to the Columbus, Ohio, office. CharlesMerrill endowed all of us with the idea that capitalism isgood and that it was time tojoin him ina crusade to bringcapitalism from Wall Street to the “grass roots” ofAmerica. In the early 1950s, a 2.5-million-share day onthe New York Stock Exchange was a big day as was aDow Jones move from 210 to 212. It soon became appar-ent that the two-year or three-year wait for an earningsor dividend increase for a stock (company) was too longfor my patience and not as great a mental challenge asthat offered by the futures markets. There, price changeswere created by the 12-month cycle of changing produc-tion and demand. (Incidentally, corn production thenwas 2.7 billion bushels versus 1992’s 9.5 billion andsoybeans 299 million then versus 2.2 billion now.) Afterservice as the office’s futures broker, I joined E.1. duPont& Co. in Chicago and issued daily market comments andchart interpretations to their branch offices. Just beforeRoss Perot bought them out, I moved to Bache & Co. anddid the same work. But we felt the USDA was too slowin issuing its reports of first-of-the-month conditions onthe tenth of the month and too reserved in its month-to-month changes. So we surveyed elevator managers (in-stead of farmers) and started issuing crop estimates forsounder analysis, for an identity and as a goodwillcontribution to agribusiness decisions.
Because a good analyst can command excellent compen-sation, including a percentage of the gross commissions,72 Market Masters
and a market position can weaken the accuracy of his orher daily writings, trading has been secondary to me,even through the later period of our independent writ-ings distributed by Thomson McKinnon and EF. Huttonbrokers. In addition, there was always the uncertainty ofconflict with positions held by one’s own clients. WhenI reached 65, I decided it was time to stop laying awakenights thinking about customers and the size of theirpositions, so the accounts were phased out to others.(Neither my customers nor I traded my crop reports.)
What qualities do you feel contributed most to your success
as a trader?
Several qualities contributed to my success:
¢ The experience of having been a broker and observingthe successes and the mistakes and weaknesses intrading techniques by customers.
¢ An early recognition that successful trading depends75 percent on technical work and 25 percent on funda-mental analysis.
¢ Anunderstanding that 80 percent of the traders in themarket at any one time are going to end up beingwrong—and lose their money.
¢ Thus, an early knowledge that for success one must beprepared to leave the crowd.
Do you use specific techniques for coping with losses?
Learning to trade, of course, can cost asmuchasa collegeeducation or more. You must study the reasons why thatposition ended up with a loss, Then, try to blank thattrade out of your thinking. Be bold, always be bold.
Also, one should not be involved in trading every day.The great big moves ina commodity market occur onlyduring one out of every three or four years. The lessimportant price moves each year last only fortwomonths
7 / Conrad Leslie ¢ 73
or so. If one misses the up-move, usually the sameamount of money can be made twice as fast when thecorrection develops.
Estimate what percentage of a trader's success is a directresult of a good system as opposed to trading skills.
One must have a foundation for trading based ona goodsystem, such as a moving average or the breaking of atwo-week or four-week range, etc. Without such, a traderis adrift in a sea and surf without a compass for confi-dence in direction. Trading skills identify whether or nota trader's personality and past experiences in life willenable him or her to compete successfully with thecompetition of the speculative crowd and the currentpersonality of the market.
Do you follow any specific trading rules?
My philosophy for trading has evolved from observingthe trading done by brokerage house customers andfrom conversations with successful traders “in the pits.”Here are my basic “bare bones” rules:
¢ Restrict your market positions to those that are in keeping with
sound, basic market fundamentals. When season suppliesare inadequate, relative to probable demand, trade onlythe long side of the market. When season supplies areexcessive, trade only the short side. If one thinks the pricelevel is correct, remain on the sidelines.
@ Never buck an established market trend. The market may
know more than you know. Give up an opinion beforeyou give up your money. Don’t sell an uptrend; don’tbuy a downtrend.
@ Recognize that the greatest difficulty in trading is in knowing
when to liquidate. Most everyone knows when price movesare starting, but the point to identify is when and wherethey have stopped.
 74 Market Masters
¢ Keep up-to-date price charts. Successful traders believe thatvisual pictures are an additional way to see and evaluateprice and identify market thinking.
Never establish a position in the market until you see thepotential for a large profit as opposed to a small loss.
Be prepared mentally to make several attempts at boarding amajor price move. A trader’ s majormarketapproach shouldbe that of carrying out probing attempts that will resultin being on board during major price moves. Be pre-pared to take small losses. Avoid the common thoughtthat to take a loss will reflect poorly on your IQ.
Do not trade too many commodities at any one time. Sometraders have so many ironsin the fire that they are unableto devote a reasonable amount of attention to any one ofthem. Four or five are enough.
Do not attempt to trade in commodities about which statisticalinformation is vague or difficult to obtain. It is preferable totrade U.S. commodities.
Do not develop an overextended market position. To takeeither an individual or total position larger than the riskor failure justifies is to invite disaster. Plungers traderashly and with only temporary success. When your greedexceeds your fear, you will self-destruct.
Restrict your trading to commodities that consistently returnprofits. Confine your trading to those commodities atwhich you are a success.
Direct your efforts toward capitalizing on major price movesif you transact business through brokerage firms. Profes-sional traders earn their livelihoods by capitalizing onhourly news developments. Anyone earning a livinganother way should not attempt to compete in this typeof day-by-day trading.
Go with the market as it makes new highs or new lows. Theact itself indicates that a basic change is taking place.Though the reasons may not yet be clearly recognized by
7 / Conrad Leslie ¢ 75
the public, they are of sufficient force to establish a newprice record.
Do you feel that close contact with the markets is necessaryfor success?
Today we live in an instantaneous economy. Billions ofdollars can be transferred in a minute. Money managersthroughout the world are being paid to constantly moni-tor the news and make decisions in response. The largepositions of the money managers each day result inviolent volatility in futures and stocks and bonds. Pricestability and orderly money flows are no longer createdby conservative federal governments and their banksthrough their open-market activities. But the more thingsfly—the greater are the profit opportunities for the play-ers. In effect, we are recreating the markets of the 1930s.
A major price move in bonds or yen or soybeans candevelopina ten-minute period and before public broker-age-house brokers can explain developments via the tele-phone tomore than two or three of their clients. Constantsurveillance is an important requirement for long-termsuccess in today’s sensitive and unstable markets.
Your reports often have a significant impact on the markets.Can you explain the psychology of how your reports haveinfluenced traders or markets during the many years thatthey've been watched so closely?
The more lights that shine on an object, the clearer it canbe seen by all. The more even the flow of market pricesand their reactions, the sounder society's business deci-sions. In contrast to the USDA’s farmer-based reports,our informational sources are elevator managers. Theyare the business people who are putting money on thebarrel head to buy first the U.S. wheat crop, then thesoybeans and then the corn. They have to judge howmuch space they will need to store each harvest, how76 Market Masters
much empty space they can rent out and how muchmoney they will have to borrow from the banks. Theserequirements seem to me to create a great sensitivity tocrop developments. Can a farmer really tell before har-vestis complete whether or not his or her fields will yield38 or 44 bushels of soybeans per acre?
Since we issued our first survey report in 1960, mostevery brokerage and agribusiness firm has started toissue reports in order to remain professional and com-petitive. Usually about two dozen estimates are avail-able to the market prior to our report and the USDA’sforecast. Such is good for the marketplace. It enablesorderly price adjustments and reduces the surprises.Most of these competitive estimates, however, are basedon the weekly state crop condition reports rather thansurvey. (These state reports may not always be accuratebecause they sometimes reflect responses from only 70or 80 farmers. But it is better for the markets to haveweekly state reports than just monthly estimates.)
Are you in touch with any specific experiences that eitherfacilitated or inhibited your trading success?
Throughout the years and even today, I force myself togo to one or two seminars a year in order to knowwhether or not there are any new ideas or discoveries inanalytical work. I think I owe such time to my readersand to the profession. Unfortunately, in recent years,most of these seem to me to be ego or money-grabbingsessions for the benefit of the speakers. Now I feel luckyif I can get one idea from four or five presentations.However, attendance does renew one’s confidence in hisor her present applications as well as in the observationthat “there is very little new in the marketplace,” ac-knowledging, of course, that the psychology and thepersonalities of modern markets are constantly new.
7/ Conrad Leslie ¢ 77
And such are today’s mental challenges for all analystsand all traders.
What advice do you have for a new trader who seeks toachieve consistent success in the markets?
1 would attend classes and seminars held by the ex-changes and brokerage firms, colleges and industrygroups. I would read the educational text books avail-able from the exchanges. For stock and industry ratings,I would study Investor's Business Daily. 1 would studyMurphy’s book, Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets,and six or seven other books on charting, candlesticksand computer trading. I would read the books written bysuccessful retired traders, such as Peter Lynch, etc. |would read one new book a month in order to determineif there was anything new under the sun and to broadenmy vision.
It usually takes two or three years of hard work to knowwhether or not a new approach is worthy of long-termadoption and success. So much of the hype of todayseems to me to be “tea leaf reading,” so one must allocatehis or her time to that which seems worthy. I still likeMACDs, but Stochastics and RSIs and Market Profileshave been relegated back to secondary thermometers ofsome time interest. A basic exercise is that I still mark andread my own bar charts every night, even after all of thepast experiences. Such enables me to more clearly ap-praise the force of the psychology directing each of themarkets.
Recently, I have often been disappointed when I paidmore than $500 to attend a seminar (or for informationabout a new system). One recent seminar presented anapproach that compiles eight trade losses in a row.Another presented positive profit results before deduc-tions for commissions. A large part of another's profitrecord was based on the 1987 price collapse.
 
 78 ¢ Market Masters
New traders should not be shocked if they lose moneyduring their first two years of trading experiences. Theyalso should not become discouraged if their perfor-mance fails to match those monthly published fundresults. They should keep in mind: When the industry’saverage performance is stated, the funds that fail eachmonth are not listed, as far as I know.
Asa brokerage house broker, | observed that many of thesuccessful traders were those whose occupations wereinvolved in a commodity industry—soybeans, soybeanoil, mining, crude oil, sugar, cocoa, the meats, lumber,cotton, etc. Doctors and lawyers do not often becomegood traders.
In my judgment, looking back at 15-year and 20-yearrecords of performance isn’t of great value. What onereally needs to give a system credence for considerationis its results during the years since 1987. Money manag-ers change as do industries and governments and eco-nomic values. The people in this world and their require-ments will double during the next 30 years.
If you had to do things all over again, knowing what youknow now about trading, what would you do differently?
I would:
¢ Arrive at trading decisions based more strongly onmoving averages and their signals.
¢ Become an intensive student of daily candlestick chartformations instead of just bar charts.
¢ Adoptone ortwocomputer trading signals, and avoidmonths of confusion and uncertainty that can comefrom reliance on five or six.
¢ Study and become more proficient in the use of com-puters for obtaining faster research results.
« Establish both a futures and a stock mutual fund.
7 / Conrad Leslie ¢ 79
ll,
Analysis of Conrad Leslie’s Interview
The Desire To Trade
Conrad's reply to this question differs markedly fromthat of the others interviewed simply because he considershimself to be a market analyst first and foremost. The mostnoteworthy aspect of his response is that he considers histrading activities and his recognition as a crop forecaster tobe somewhat conflicting. In other words, he feels that hecannot trade and forecast crop conditions at the same time.Conrad adds parenthetically at the end of his response thatneither he nor his clients traded his forecasts. What he meansspecifically is that neither he nor his clients took advantageof the fact that his reports would often cause sharp marketmoves. Few analysts can resist the temptation to take aposition in the markets prior to the release of a report thatwill have a predictable impact. Conrad is to be commendedfor his ethics, which are a rare commodity indeed in thefutures markets. His ethics make the rest of his responsesmore credible and add to the value of his observations.
Qualities Needed for Success
Conrad speaks out unequivocally in favor of being acontrarian. He emphasizes that the majority of traders arewrong and are therefore losers, a realization that inextrica-bly leads him to the conclusion that for success one must beprepared to leave the crowd. Yet also contained in his responseis a healthy respect for technical analysis in addition tofundamental analysis. Many readers will, I am sure, besurprised to find that Conrad Leslie, seen by many as thedean of fundamental analysis, weights technical analysis asbeing 75 percent of the formula for success! An importantpoint is that observing the successes and failures of hiscustomers led him to his successful position as a trader.
 80 » Market Masters
Therefore, for Conrad Leslie success consists of threeelements:
1, Use a 75/25 mix of technical and fundamental analysis.2. Learn from the errors of other traders.3. Be a contrarian.
Coping with Losses
Conrad offers sage advice: Be bold, always be bold. Hestresses the value of blanking losing trades out of your mind.In other words, he emphasizes the importance of knowingthat losses are part of the tuition of trading but that wecannot allow them to influence our willingness to trade. His“be bold” credo is expressed extremely well and reflects thethinking of such traders as Larry Williams, Bob Prechter andGeorge Lane who also point out the importance of having apositive attitude regardless of losses.
Conrad makes a point that few others have made. Henotes that if you fail to participate in a bull move, the ensuingbear move will often have the same or greater potential andthat money can be made in the bear move twice as fast as inthe bull move. Few traders think this way. Consider themany times you've taken a loss and entirely written thatmarket off for a few weeks or a few months. Think of themany times you've missed a move and totally ignored themarket only to find that in your rejection of the market youhave also missed a move in the opposite direction. Clearly,Conrad's thinking reflects the thought processes of a marketprofessional with years of experience.
A Good System Versus Trading Skills
Conrad waxes poetic when he alludes to a trader with-out a good system as adrift at sea without direction or self-confidence. Because he does not indicate whether a goodtrading system or trader skill carries more weight, I sensedthat he considered both trading system and trader skill tobe of equal importance. I extracted from his response a
7 / Conrad Leslie ¢ 81
reference to confidence. My impression is that Conrad con-siders a good trading system to be something that impartsconfidence and direction to the trader. This point of view isshared by the other experts interviewed.
Conrad also points out that a simple trading system isbest. I believe, as do many other traders, that complicated isnot necessarily synonymous with profits when it comes totrading systems. He confirms this by referring to severalvery simple systems—systems that although simple haveproven themselves to be profitable over the years.
Specific Trading Rules
Conrad shares his detailed list of trading rules with us.All his rules reflect both his experience as well as his deepthought. The common thread in his trading rules is philo-sophical rather than procedural. In other words, Conradstresses a psychological orientation to the markets in prefer-ence to a technical orientation. While not all of his rules areapplicable to the strictly technical trader, they all make senseboth intellectually as well as behaviorally.
The Psychology of Reports
Conrad sounds philosophical in stating that his reportsshed more light on the market, which helps to clarify thepicture. Using elevator managers instead of farmers assources for the surveys reveals more valuable information totraders and provides a basis for making sound businessdecisions. Conrad does seem to attribute much value to theeffect his reports have on the markets immediately upontheir release. Conrad is primarily a position trader. He is notas interested in short-term price swings as are many traders.As a result, he does not find it necessary to focus on the“morning after” reaction to his crop estimates.
Experiences That Help or Hinder
Conrad stresses that he is constantly attempting to learnnew things about trading. Yet he finds that little new exists.82 ¢ Market Masters
He merely learns what he has known all along: Very little isnew in the marketplace, The French say plus ca change, plus cameme chose (the more things change, the more they stay thesame). In so stating, he reflects the feelings of many success-ful traders who de-emphasize the importance of new meth-ods and emphasize the value of adhering to the basic psy-chological and behavioral principles of trading.
Advice for the New Trader
Conrad has many suggestions, most of which fall intoseveral categories. First, he stresses the value of educationand that a winning education as a trader takes time.
Second, he points out that simple basic indicators tend towork best, and he states some of his preferences.
Finally, he provides a few guidelines on what the newtrader might do bothin finding worthwhile informationandin avoiding the pitfalls of futures trading.
Hindsight
Clearly, Conrad has learned his lessons and presents uswith specific goals. Once again he stresses simplicity. Notethat he wants to focus on one or two computer tradingsignals as opposed to reliance on five or six, which he feelscreate confusion and uncertainty. He stresses the use of
candlestick charts and moving averages, both basic tech-niques that all traders can learn.
ll,
Conclusion
 
In all, Conrad Leslie's interview reveals the character ofa man who has spent many years as a futures trader andmarket analyst. His view of futures trading can be summa-rized as follows:
1. A solid education as well as a continuing education infutures trading is essential for success.
7 / Conrad Leslie ¢ 83
. It is important to trade with the market trend using
simple, basic, time-tested and reliable indicators. Anyattempt to complicate a trading system will likely resultin failure.
. A positive psychological orientation is an essential in-
gredient for success.
. A contrarian attitude is vital to success.. A mix of fundamentals and technicals is the best meth-
odological approach.
 lt,
Robert Prechter
 
Riding the Elliott Wave
Bob Prechter has established himself as the preeminentauthority on the work of R.N. Elliott. His studies, publica-tions and public pronouncements on the Elliott Wave theoryhave gained him a well-deserved reputation.
In spite of the fact that many market students andanalysts consider the Elliott Wave theory to be a matter ofinterpretation and subjectivity, the principles underlyingthe Wave are sound. Although I have always found theElliott Wave difficult to learn, I do not consider the seemingsubjectivity of Elliott Wave analysis to be detrimental orseriously limiting in terms of the method’s underlying va-lidity. Many approaches to market analysis and tradingrequire a certain degree of subjectivity and, by their verynature, will never be fully mechanical.
I respect Bob's work as well as his dedication to the artand science of Elliott Wave analysis. Bob is one of the
R586 ¢ Market Masters
greatest thinkers in the profession, “thinkers” on the philo-sophical as well as the intellectual plane. He is much morethan an “Elliott Wave person.” He is dedicated to work,family and personal development. Although my contactswith Bob have been brief, his persona has emerged clearlythrough his writings, and it is with great respect for a peerthat I publish and interpret Bob’s interview.
A Biographical Sketch
Robert R. Prechter, founder and president of ElliottWave International, established his reputation in the 1980sas one of the world’s most successful analysts and markettimers. He has been acknowledged as “the world leader inElliott Wave interpretation” by The Securities Institute, “thechampion market forecaster” by Fortune magazine and “thenation’s foremost proponent of the Elliott Wave method offorecasting” by The New York Times.
Bob has published Elliott Wave Commentary since 1976and has written several books on market analysis. In 1984 heset an all-time record in the United States Trading Champi-onship by returning 444.4 percent in a monitored real-money options account in the four-month contest period.During the 1980s, his Elliott Wave Theorist publication twicewon Timer Digest’s “Timer of the Year” and Hard MoneyDigest’s” Award of Excellence.” InDecember 1989, FinancialNews Network named him “Guru of the Decade.” Accord-ing to The Hulbert Financial Digest, the Theorist matched theperformance of the Wilshire 5000 over the ten-year periodending December 31, 1992, while being exposed to marketrisk only 50 percent of the time.
In 1990, Bob commenced a search for experienced, provenElliott Wave analysts to provide market commentary toinstitutional customers around the world. He expand-ed successfully Elliott Wave International’s services to in-clude short-term, intermediate-term and long-term analysisof all major currency, interest rate and stock markets aroundthe world.
 
8 / Robert Prechter ¢ 87
Bob served ten years on the board of directors of thenational Market Technicians Association and in 1990 waselected its president. He also serves on the board of directorsof the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Before starting outindependently, Bob worked with the Merrill Lynch MarketAnalysis Department in New York as a Technical MarketSpecialist. He obtained his degree in psychology from YaleUniversity in 1971.
For Global Market Perspective, Bob provides commentaryfor world stock markets, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, theeconomy and social trends.
ills,An Interview with Robert Prechter
What precipitated your desire to trade, and when?
What initially interested me in the market was quintu-pling my money in 16 months in gold stocks in the early1970s on my father’s advice. To this day, I’ve neverbettered that gain in unleveraged investments.
 
What qualities contributed most to your success asa trader?
When I was successful, it was due to discipline, whichusually means taking decisive action immediately whencalled for. When I’ve lost money, it’s been because Ididn’t do that.
Do you use specific techniques for coping with losses?
The coping part comes before the loss. If you take aposition large enough to inflict serious financial damageupon yourself, you are a loser going out of the gate. I trytocope with my losses beforehand, determining amountof risk in advance. It is important to be honest withyourself. Most people cope with losses by lying to othersand sometimes even to themselves. If you can’t be hon-est, you're probably not handling losses well.
 88 ¢ Market Masters
Estimate what percentage of a trader's success is a directresult of a good system as opposed to trading skills. Whatwould be the split?
In one sense, it’s 50/50. That is to say, you need both tobe successful, in an equal measure. However, a goodsystem is far easier to come by. The conquest of humannature therefore makes the difference. Psychologicallyspeaking then, trading skills are 100 percent responsiblefor a trader's success.
Do you feel that close contact with the markets is necessaryfor success?
This is not a trick question, but it has a trick answer. Ifyou're not close enough to the markets, you lose money.If you're too close to the markets, you lose money twiceas fast. You should be just as close to the markets as youneed to be in order to monitor and protect your trade.
The intense public following that you have enjoyed for somany years has often precipitated large market swings.Some analysts have blamed you for causing these emotionalresponses. How would you answer your critics?
Critics who accuse market analysts of causing mar-ket swings are usually the same ones who accuse mar-ket analysts of missing market turns. The second accusa-tion nullifies the first. In other words, the theory theypropose is that a market analyst is so “ powerful” that hisor her utterances cause people to act and thereforemake the market go in the direction he or she wants it togo. (It would certainly make an analyst's life easier ifit were true!) If one accepts this theory, then onemust accept that said analyst will never, ever be wrong.His or her influences can only grow. Obviously, there isno such animal. A single error disproves the theory. Theconclusion that critics are trying to avoid reaching is that
 
8 / Robert Prechter ¢ 89
analysts whose pronouncements are often followedby market moves in the expected direction are good attheir craft.
Do you feel that your success was inspired by any famoustraders? If so, who, and how so?
None of the famous traders had any influence on me. Myprimary early influences were Richard Russell in thearea of market analysis and Dick Diamond in the area oftrading. Russell taught me that technical analysis wasproper and reasonable. My friend Diamond taught mehow to trade options.
Are you in touch with any specific experiences that eitherfacilitated or inhibited your trading success?
Yes. I've told a few of those stories in speeches. There'sa 45-minute discussion in videotape #