2Smithsonian Agreement, 6, 107South Africa, 8, 12, 59–60, 228rand, 76–7South Korea, 229Soviet Union, end of, 6speculation, 48, 49–53speculative cycle model, 213Speculative Cycle of Exchange Rates, 52–3,127–8, 131, 206speculative excess, 49–52speculative flow, 45speculators, 197–9, 218standard accounting identity for economicadjustment, 58–62Sterling, 57Sterling crisis, 2sticky prices, 26strategic hedging, 161support in technical analysis, 87–9Swiss franc, 54, 56Taiwan, 36dollar 231
Indextechnical analysis, 10, 85–103, 199, 207,210–11challenge of, 86–7charting, 87–100, 210–11currency order dynamics and technicallevels, 87–9psychological levels, 90–100trends, 90currency market practitioners and, 102–3original and basic concepts, 85–6schools of (technical) thought, 100–2support and resistance in, 87–9technical indicator, 97“Tequila crisis”, 38terms of trade, 39–40Thailand, 36, 62, 121–8baht, 27, 115, 121, 188third-generation crisis models, 133Tobin Tax, 7total return, 203tracking error, 171–2, 217in currency overlay, 182trade execution, 208trade flow, 45trade strategy, 208trade tactics, 208trade-weighted exchange rate (NEER), 38, 63,233transaction currency risk, 140, 213,translation currency risk, 140–2, 213trend-following strategy, 173–5, 217Index compiled by Annette Musker
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trend-line resistance, 90trend-lines, 90, 91, 96Turkey, 12, 68, 110, 119, 204, 232lira, 219–21UK, 39economy, 13unbiased forward rate theory, 142US Treasury, 4, 29, 30, 61, 69“TIC” report, 77–9USA, 5dollar, 5, 8, 9, 26, 28–9, 40, 43, 57, 60–1, 83,131–2, 180, 182–3, 203–4, 222, 230,237trade deficit, 8, 21treasuries, 56, 102, 127valuation, long-term, 211value at risk (VaR), 143–4, 160–1Venezuela, 39bolivar, 38, 110Williamson, John, 38, 116won, Korean, 27, 115, 231World Bank, 123, 188yen, Japanese, 4–5, 40, 43, 56, 74–5, 121, 228,229, 230yuan, China, 121, 228, 229, 230, 231zloty, Polish, 45, 51, 56, 57, 81, 129, 237
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