, people who took propranolol saw less risk, but their perceptions ofpotential rewards were not affected. Propranolol is commonly prescribedto reduce “stage fright” during public speaking, and it is occasionally used
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in the treatment of other types of anxiety. Propranolol helps people takerisk by decreasing their fear of large potential losses.
An investor I know commented that his beta-blocker medications,which he takes for high blood pressure, help him feel more clear-mindedwhen judging risky investments. “Beta blockers help me be more rationaland not get so afraid of risk . . .” He uses this effect to his advantage bychanging his focus. While most investors are preoccupied with potentialrisks, he can objectively watch other investors: “I can see whether peopleare buying risky assets.” He uses these observations to inform a contrarianinvestment strategy. On days he forgets to take his beta blockers, he feelsmore anxious and reactive to risk-related news.
Opiates
Opiates are also known as endorphins. Opiates induce positive feelingsand reduce pain. Opiates are small proteins that act on several subtypesof receptors on the downstream neurons. When they act on the mu opiatereceptor, they trigger the release of dopamine. For this reason, scientistsbelieve that opiate-based street drugs, such as heroin and opium, are addic-tive via their stimulation of the mu receptor (and thus their ability to causespikes in dopamine levels and increase endorphins).
For some investors the excitement of quick gains can become addic-tive. Pathological gamblers, whose disease is an addiction to the “thrill” ofrisk and opportunity, secrete a large surge of opiates in their limbic systemsjust before they gamble. Pathological gamblers are most likely to gambleif they are home alone, in the evening, thinking about their ﬁnances. Thesecan be depressing circumstances, and endorphin release provides a quick“pick-me-up.”
Stress Hormones
Most investors are familiar with ﬁnancial stress. Stress hormones ﬂood thebody after sudden losses, leading to a number of effects on one’s mind andbrain. Stress hormones, such as cortisol, are designed to help us respondto sudden threats, and are longer-acting than other stress chemicals suchas noprepinephrine, which was described above. See Chapter 10 for moredetails about the stress response.
After experiencing chronic stress, prolonged elevations of cortisol cancause depression, fatigue, weight gain, and short-term memory loss. Brainscans show that an area of the brain called the hippocampus (where short-term memories are stored) shrinks in size in people undergoing chronicstress. People who are high in the personality trait of neuroticism have de-creased cortical volume (gray matter). This brain shrinkage may be caused
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by the chemical effects of chronic nervousness—oxidative neuronal dam-age from chronic elevations in stress hormones.
Caffeine
Caffeine is unusual in its diversity of neurological effects. Caffeine itselfpromotes vigilance in some people, but a sizable minority of caffeine usersexperience nervousness and irritability. Caffeine is consumed in coffee,black tea, green tea, energy drinks, sodas, and other beverages. While caf-feine increases alertness, improves mood, and facilitates faster task per-formance in the short term, its role in ﬁnancial decision making appearsunstudied. Two notable ﬁndings have emerged regarding both high-dosecaffeine use and green tea consumption.
Caffeine causes an increase in stress hormone levels. Lovallo (1996)found a 30 percent increase in cortisol levels one hour following a caf-feine dose equivalent to three cups of coffee.9 It is not clear whether otherchemical compounds in coffee, besides caffeine, also have physiological orpsychological effects. Many studies have demonstrated that there are noknown adverse long-term effects of caffeine use. Caffeine’s exacerbationof anxiety could feasibly increase ﬁnancial risk perception, but no studieshave documented that effect.
In a study of over 1,000 elderly Japanese, frequency of green tea intakewas correlated with a more than 50 percent reduction in age-related cogni-tive impairment.10 Coffee, black tea, and oolong tea consumption did notdemonstrate such an effect. Research into the cognitive effects of caffeineconsumption has yielded few notable results.
GABA, Acetylcholine, and Omega-3 Fatty Acids
GABA is found virtually everywhere in the brain. The GABA chemical isa small protein fragment (an amino acid derivative). GABA slows downelectrical activity globally in the brain. Most anticonvulsant medications,used in epileptics for preventing seizures, increase the brain’s saturationwith GABA to reduce neural excitability (and thus prevent seizures). Addi-tionally, many anticonvulsants are used as mood stabilizers, because theydecrease the excitability and mood swings of bipolar disorder (historicallycalled manic-depressive illness).
Some medications (such as benzodiazepines and alcohol) increasebrain levels of GABA. Common benzodiazepine medications include Val-ium, Restoril, Klonopin, Ativan, and Xanax (at one time the most widelyabused prescription medication). Alcohol is known as a central nervoussystem depressant due to its effect on GABA receptors. Alcohol may
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disinhibit some people’s behavior because it relaxes frontal cortex controlover impulses arising in the limbic system.
Of course, nothing is simple in neuroscience. There are two types (andfurther subtypes) of GABA receptors, and both benzodiazepines and al-cohol have effects on one subtype that has been linked to their addictiveproperties. Medications that act on the other subtype exclusively are beingmarketed as nonaddictive sleeping medications.
Acetylcholine helps the brain to encode short-term memories. Drugsthat decrease acetylcholine levels,including over-the-counter antihis-tamines such as diphenhydramine (Benadryl) and many common pesti-cides, impair short-term memory encoding and learning. Alzheimer’s dis-ease is characterized by memory loss and behavioral disinhibition. Mostmedications designed to treat Alzheimer’s work by increasing brain acetyl-choline levels, and thus strengthening one’s recall.
Research has showed that people who eat more omega-3 fatty acids intheir diets are happier, less impulsive, and healthier than others. Omega-3 fatty acids comprise 8 percent of the brain’s fat content. Omega-3 fattyacids are most concentrated in cold-water ﬁsh oil (anchovies, herring,mackerel, sardines, salmon), seeds (ﬂaxseed, pumpkin, and sunﬂower),nuts (almonds, Brazil nuts, peanuts, pine nuts, walnuts), and sea vegeta-bles (arame, nori). Omega-3 fats improve neuron cell wall ﬂexibility andenhance regeneration after damage.
Omega-3 fats compete with omega-6 fatty acids in a biochemical path-way called the arachidonic acid pathway. Corn oil has become the num-ber one source of fatty acids in the Western diet. The high omega-6 con-tent of corn oil outcompetes omega-3 fats in the arachidonic acid path-way and may lead to proinﬂammatory changes in the body that exacerbateatherosclerosis (heart disease) and autoimmune diseases. In one studywith British prisoners, those given omega-3 and vitamin supplements hada 20 percent reduction in disciplinary infractions, presumably related toimproved impulse control.11 Omega-3s are inadequate in the modern West-ern diet, and ﬁsh-oil supplements have been found useful in various studiesfor improving mood, impulse control, immune function, and emotional sta-bility. In general, investors may beneﬁt from eating more ﬁsh or omega-3supplements.
THE CHEMISTRY OF (FINANCIAL)MENTAL DISORDERS
The neurochemical origins of ﬁnancial risk taking can be partially un-derstood by an analysis of disordered ﬁnancial behavior. Some men-illnesses, as deﬁned by the diagnostic manual for mental healthtal
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professionals, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disor-ders IV-TR (2000), result in abnormal ﬁnancial decision making. For ex-ample, acute mania is a pathological mood state typically characterized byeuphoric mood and excessive risk taking (including with money). Somemanic patients who have access to brokerage accounts will rapidly tradestocks, often until the account is drained. One Web site notes that somemanic patients “go on shopping sprees, spend food money to buy lotto tick-ets, or try to make a killing in the stock market.”12 Ronald Fieve is a psy-chiatrist who has collected stories of manic and overconﬁdent investors inhis book Moodswing.13
Mania is caused by overactive dopamine and norepinephrine circuitsin the brain, including in the reward system. Treatments for mania includeantipsychotic medications that directly block or limit the neural stimula-tion caused by dopamine release. These treatments are often rejected bypatients because they also dampen the euphoric high and peak conﬁdencethat accompany an acute manic episode.
The lifetime prevalence of pathological gambling disorder in theUnited States is less than 3.5 percent.14 Recent neuroimaging studiesdemonstrate a hypoactivity of the reward circuitry in these individuals.Pathological gamblers are gambling to feel excitement, which they achieveby activating their uncommonly desensitized reward circuits.
While behavioral therapy is one of the best treatments for pathologi-cal gambling, some medications can signiﬁcantly decrease the frequencyof gambling. The most effective medication treatment for pathologicalgamblers is naltrexone (ReVia),15 which is a mu opiate receptor blocker.In the reward system, mu opiate receptors stimulate dopamine release.16Blocking opiate receptors with naltrexone decreases dopamine release inthe nucleus accumbens, which results in decreased subjective feelings ofpleasure.17 Gamblers taking naltrexone are not compelled to seek rewardsystem stimulation through further gambling, possibly because they feelreduced pleasure from gambling.
Some subtypes of depression, such as “melancholic” depression, arecharacterized by decreased dopamine activity in the reward pathway. Thisreward system hypoactivity leads to several depression symptoms, includ-ing difﬁculty experiencing pleasure, excessive sleepiness, and (importantlyfor investors) chronic risk aversion. Bupropion (a weak dopamine stim-ulant) and amphetamines (a stronger stimulant) are often used to treatmelancholic depression.
Anxiety also biases ﬁnancial decisions. When pathological, anxiety ischaracterized by exaggerated risk perception and hypervigilance. Whenmild, anxiety may slightly increase individual risk taking (be aware thatmoderate levels of stress prompt dopamine secretion), and it is often notedin the media that the markets climb a “wall of worry” when investors arenervous. At high levels, anxiety gives way to panic selling as investors
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run for safety. For an individual investor, a number of factors inﬂuencewhether panic is triggered, including one’s anxiety-coping strategies, pastlosses, personality style, and general risk sensitivity.
Two mental disorders on the obsessive-compulsive spectrum merit dis-cussion. Compulsive shopping disorder (CSD) is currently assumed to bea subtype of the obsessive-compulsive disorders. Moderately successfultreatment of compulsive shopping can be achieved with the use of an SSRIantidepressant (citalopram).18 The disorder of hoarding, wherein sufferersaccumulate excessive quantities of one type of good or asset, is also con-sidered a subtype of obsessive-compulsive disorder. Currently, only behav-ioral and psychotherapy approaches have shown success in the treatmentof hoarding.19 While CSD sufferers report tension relief as a result of pur-chasing, hoarders have a different problem. Hoarders are unable to get ridof items they have already collected.
THE NEUROCHEMISTRY OFFINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
The use of chemicals to enhance performance is controversial. Profes-sional athletes, such as the baseball player Barry Bonds, have been cas-tigated by the media for using steroid precursors to improve their baseballstatistics. Lance Armstrong’s teammate Floyd Landis yielded his 2006 Tourde France title following artiﬁcial testosterone use. The list of athletes dis-credited for using performance-enhancing chemicals is long.
As opposed to physical performance, decision making cannot be easilyimproved with chemicals. Nevertheless, caffeine and alcohol are two ofthe most widely used mind-altering substances in the world, largely due totheir cognitive effects. This section of the chapter suggests that cognitiveperformance can be improved with certain medications, foods, and illicitsubstances, but there are no “easy” ﬁxes.
It is currently considered unethical to use medications to enhancemental performance. Such practice has been dubbed “cosmetic psy-chopharmacology.” I have not done this in my psychiatry practice. Yet theuse of substances to improve cognitive performance is already occurring.The U.S. Air Force gives its pilots “go pills” (time-release am-phetamines) to improve their stamina during long ﬂights. However, am-phetamines have many potential side effects (including paranoia and anx-iety) and are of unknown beneﬁt in dynamic thinking exercises. “Gopills” were investigated as the possible cause of a friendly ﬁre incidentin Afghanistan, in which Canadian soldiers were bombed by an Americanpilot returning from a 10-hour mission. The pilot believed he was under
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attack from the ground, and he became impatient while awaiting targetclearance from his operations base.
As many as 20 percent of college students report having used am-phetamines to help them study.20 The consequences of this type ofabuse can be tragic. My psychiatrist colleagues have treated Stanfordundergraduates in the psychiatric emergency room who became psychoticafter inadvertently overdosing on Ritalin and Adderall (amphetaminederivatives used to treat ADHD), which they had been using to improvetheir stamina during ﬁnal exams.
One nationally known poker player claims that a time-releaseamphetamine-derived medication (Adderall) helped him win millions ofdollars in tournaments. “With Adderall in my system, I am like an informa-tion sponge, able to process data from several players at once while con-sidering my next action.”21 The author speculates that it is the increasedconcentration, wakefulness, and stamina promoted by amphetamines thataids poker playing, especially at the end of a long tournament day. In hiscase, where the goal is short term and the beneﬁts are clear, amphetaminesmay improve ﬁnancial performance.
A new stimulant medication called modaﬁnil has less serious side ef-fects than amphetamines and is nonaddictive. I have known traders whotook a low dose of modaﬁnil (Provigil) for ensuring alertness during thetrading day, but the results were unclear.
One psychiatrist I met believes that modulation of medications mayhelp some traders perform better. He mentioned that a trader patient ofhis takes a lower-than-therapeutic dose of lithium for his bipolar disorder.This patient is a currency trader, and both he and his boss want him alertovernight to watch world markets and incoming news. When taking toomuch lithium, he was merely “average” in his speed and ability, and heslept eight hours per night. When not taking lithium, he quickly becamehypomanic—he took too much risk and traded too often. So he, his boss,and the psychiatrist had worked out a system for preventing emotionalextremes by taking a low dose of lithium. A low level of adaptive traitsremained—a decreased need for sleep, high energy, self-conﬁdence, andrisk seeking. These symptoms were present for the 16- to 20-hour work-day of this currency trader, and he appreciated the beneﬁts to his tradingperformance.
SEROTONIN AND MARKET BUBBLES
An article written by psychiatrist Randolph Nesse in February 2000 washeadlined “Is This Market on Prozac?” The article noted that prescriptions
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for psychoactive drugs increased from 131 million in 1988 to 233 millionin 1998. The author went on to speculate, “I would not be surprised tolearn that one in four large investors has used some kind of mood-alteringdrug.”22 Nesse remarked that some of his patients on SSRI medications“report that they become far less cautious than they were before, worryingtoo little about real dangers.” He wondered whether the clear disregard forrisk among many investors of the time could in part be attributed to thecommon use of antidepressant medications.
Some executives refer to Prozac as the “Teﬂon medicine” because itallows them to look past perceived threats, decide quickly without rumi-nating, and remain more optimistic during stress. In the best-selling bookListening to Prozac, psychiatrist Peter Kramer frets about the potentialuse of SSRI antidepressants as “steroids for the business Olympics.”23
Professor Brian Knutson at Stanford University gave normal subjectstherapeutic doses of the antidepressant paroxetine (an SSRI). Knutson’ssubjects experienced a reduction in threat perception and an increase inafﬁliative behaviors.24 In another study, subjects who were administeredthe SSRI medication citalopram showed decreased amygdala (fear-related)activations on fMRI.25 These characteristics—decreased threat perceptionand increased social afﬁliation—mirror the blind optimism and herding ofexcessively bullish investors. It is as if bubble investors have partial deac-tivation of their brains’ loss-avoidance systems.
Robert Rogers at Oxford University has performed several studies us-ing Trp depletion to decrease brain serotonin levels. Rogers found that Trpdepletion led to an inability to attend to the size of a potential gain—Trp-depleted subjects poorly differentiated between large or small gain sizes.For investors, Trp depletion (and low serotonin levels) might impair thedistinguishing of large from small potential payoffs, leading to overtradingfor smaller stakes.
Other researchers have found that Trp depletion causes the time dis-counting curve to become steeper, so investors prefer small immediaterewards over larger, later rewards when their serotonin levels are low.This suggests that low serotonin levels (due to Trp depletion) may, in fact,prompt impulsive reward pursuit and overtrading.
From an evolutionary perspective, the relationship between low sero-tonin and overtrading makes sense. Investors who have suffered a seriesof losses want to change their circumstances, if only to get out of the holethey’ve found themselves in. They are willing to accept any possible in-vestment to get out of their deﬁcit, impulsively pursuing small possiblegains.
One patient in treatment for depression kept all of her assets incash. Because of her fears of taking ﬁnancial risk, she was reluctantto invest even in U.S. government bonds. She was concerned that the
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U.S. government might default on payments to bondholders. While a U.S.government default is a risk, it is a very small risk. She was paralyzed byher exaggerated risk perception, unable to realistically perceive the risksand rewards of various investment options open to her. Her thought distor-tions were directly related to her depressive illness and its neurochemicalbasis—low serotonin. Successful treatment with SSRI antidepressant med-ications was followed by improved mood and small, tentative purchases ofbonds and mutual funds.
RECREATIONAL DRUGS AND ALCOHOL
Numerous drugs of abuse alter ﬁnancial decision making. In general, drugssuch as THC (tetrahydrocannabinol), alcohol, and benzodiazepines havesimilar effects on risk taking. THC, the active ingredient in marijuana, bi-ases ﬁnancial decisions. When given a choice between a certain but low-value positive expected value option ($0.01) or a zero expected value op-tion with high return variability, THC-intoxicated subjects preferred therisky option signiﬁcantly more than control subjects who had been admin-istered a placebo. If they lost money after selecting the risky option, THC-intoxicated subjects were signiﬁcantly more likely to persist with the riskyselection, while controls were more likely to move to the positive expectedvalue option.26
Alcohol similarly promotes needless risk-taking behavior. Alcohol-intoxicated subjects, in the same experimental task described immediatelyabove, were more likely to choose the risky option than controls.27 Re-searchers have found that alcohol use correlates with decreased loss dis-crimination. That is, people don’t attend to the difference between largeand small losses when intoxicated with alcohol. This is the same effectobserved with propranolol and is likely a result of alcohol’s action on thebenzodiazepine receptors, which reduces risk perception.28
Benzodiazepines increase preference for high potential rewards, es-pecially when odds are low, and they increase overall risk taking. In oneexperiment, a dose of the benzodiazepine Valium increased the numberof points wagered in a risk-taking task only in those trials with the low-est odds of winning but the highest potential payoff.29 In the risk-takingtask used for both THC and alcohol experiments above, administration ofthe benzodiazepine alprazolam produced increased selection of the zero-expected value risky option. Importantly, there is evidence that whetheran individual is vulnerable to the behavioral effects of drugs of abuse de-pends on their personality style: “Risk-seeking personality traits may bepredictive of acute drug effects on risk-taking behavior.”30
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Alcohol, in small doses, is disinhibiting. It decreases anxiety and makesdrinkers feel more sociable and conﬁdent. Many investors drink at the endof the workday to “shake off” the tension. The social contact involvedin drinking is positive, and drinking after work helps investors chemi-cally drown out the nervous feedback from their overstimulated fear cir-cuits. Unfortunately, alcohol use can easily lead to unexpected longer-termdecision-making problems.
The problems with alcohol use by investors may be threefold. Alcoholcan be addictive and tolerance promoting, and can lead to subtle long-termperformance decrements. Alcohol allows investors to avoid dealing withone of the core problems in their investing, which is often anxiety aboutﬁnancial uncertainty. The short-term withdrawal effect (the next-day hang-over) of alcohol is characterized by fatigue, mental dullness, and a lack ofcreativity and productivity. Investors with a hangover have endured a nightof impaired sleep and as a result they have impaired learning and impulsecontrol, and are delayed in their response times compared to the usual.
Cocaine
Cocaine and amphetamines have been used historically as energy boosters.South American indigenous people in the Andes often chew coca leaves ordrink coca-leaf tea for extra energy and stamina when doing high-altitudephysical labor. Yet in rapid-acting forms (such as powder or rock), cocainecauses a rapid spike in dopamine levels and is very addictive.
Cocaine addiction appears to be more likely among those of lower so-cial status. Monkeys who are higher in the social dominance hierarchy havehigher levels of brain dopamine and do not become addicted to cocaine aseasily as those who are lower in the hierarchy.31 Presumably, higher-statusmonkeys do not need external boosting of dopamine to feel good—they al-ready produce enough dopamine internally to feel conﬁdent and strong.32Investors with low self-esteem, and those who perceive themselves as be-ing less successful than their colleagues, are more likely to abuse cocaine.Cocaine abuse was rumored to be widespread on the ﬂoors of major Ameri-can stock exchanges, especially in the 1980s and 1990s. Cocaine was proba-bly used by ﬂoor traders to replenish or boost dopamine in their exhaustedreward systems, effectively boosting their conﬁdence and motivation dur-ing the workday.
The above studies illustrate that common chemical compounds, bothmedications and drugs of abuse, can have profound effects on an in-dividual’s risky choice. In particular, frequently prescribed antidepres-sants and anxiolytics (SSRIs) appear to decrease threat perception and
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increase social afﬁliation. Time-release amphetamines increase alertnessand smooth the reward system’s reactivity to potential ﬁnancial gains.Common blood pressure medications (beta blockers) decreased aversionto potential ﬁnancial losses.
The point of all this information on neurochemistry is that many com-monly ingested substances alter neurotransmission and ﬁnancial judg-ment. Investors should be aware of how their chemical intake may be af-fecting their ﬁnancial decision making.
In Part II of this book, the effects of emotions on ﬁnancial judgment will bedescribed in detail.
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Feelingsand Finances
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C H A P T E R 5
IntuitionThe Power of Listeningto Your Gut
“Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound oftrumpets.”
—Attributed to British banker Nathan MayerRothschild, during the Napoleonic wars1
A n investment banker friend of mine is no stranger to high stakes.
He frequently negotiates deals worth hundreds of millions of dollarswith multiple competing parties.
In early 2006, he was negotiating to purchase a small mining companyfor a client. A deal had been hashed out at terms that were very favor-able for his team, and the consensus was to close the deal the followingday. For $220 million his client would take control of signiﬁcant land hold-ings with mineral rights, an operating metals mine, and a small prospectingdivision.
The night before the deal was to close, my friend couldn’t sleep—noteven a wink. Initially, he didn’t know why, but by 3 A.M. he had an inkling.Early in the morning, he called the other party and canceled the deal.
Initially, his colleagues were incredulous. The deal had been agreed.
How could he renege without consulting them?
He asked them to keep their cool. He had a hunch. He requested thatthey make no phone calls and discuss nothing with their counterparties.“Zip it,” he told them.
Twenty-four hours later, the seller’s broker called back offering a 10percent discount. The new papers were drawn up (with a new price of$198 million). He got a good night’s sleep the night before the signing, andthe deal was closed the next day.
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How did he know that they hadn’t been getting the best possible terms?“I can’t say,” he told me. “When these things happen, I don’t think about it;I just go with it.” He explained, “I knew that if I wasn’t sleeping the nightbefore the deal, then I had to call it off. I wanted us to keep our heads downfor a few days until we heard from the other side. And the other side gavein . . . like I suppose I ﬁgured they would.”
He had a hunch he wasn’t getting the