<s> Simple SectorTrading StrategiesProfit by being in the right markets – at the right time
JOHN MURPHY
Outline:Slide 1: INTERMARKET OVERVIEWSlide 2 - 3:
COMMODITIES VS. BONDS
Slide 4 - 5:
COMMODITIES VS. STOCKS
Slide 6 - 7: BONDS VS. STOCKSSlide 8:
DOLLAR VS. STOCKS
Slide 9 - 10: STOCKS VS. GOLDSlide 11 - 12: INDUSTRY GROUPSSlide 13: MARKET SECTORSSlide 14 - 15: MARKET INDICESSlide 16: SECTOR ROTATION MODELSlide 17-28: RECENT CHART EXAMPLES
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- Bonds and commodities trend in oppositedirections- Commodities follow lead of stocks
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- In a deflationary environment, bonds andstocks decouple- They trend in opposite directions
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- Stocks and the dollar are falling together :bullish for gold- Stocks and gold stocks trend in oppositedirections
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- Retailers lead market rallies at bottoms- Cyclical stocks lead at bottoms- Small stocks lead at bottoms
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Sector Rotation ModelFrom: Stockcharts.com
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Fidelity Select Insurance Top Sector FundFriday, April 5th, 2002
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AeroSpace/Defense Comes in SecondFriday, April 5th, 2002
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Medical Delivery in Third PlaceFriday, April 5th, 2002
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Small Stocks Doing Better Than Large…Wed, April 10th, 2002
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Small Value Outperforms Small GrowthWed, April 10th, 2002
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Gold Stocks As A Market HedgeFriday, April 26 th, 2002
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Gold Stocks Move Inversely to MarketFriday, April 26 th, 2002
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Russell 2000 Falls Under 50-Day LineFriday, May 10th, 2002
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Small Stocks SlippingFriday, May 10th, 2002
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Confessions of a Technical Analyst :We’re Really Fundamental Analysts
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Charting is SimpleKnow UP From DOWN:UP is Good… DOWN is Bad
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This is UP…UP is Good
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