buying pressureclimbs as the market dives. Those are my general rules. Each bottom orweakness will bring in buyers to some degree and each top or marketstrength will bring in sellers. For historical market implications, you doa bit of both in that you track the gainers for selling pressure as a market climbs and track for buying as the market retreats. You must take thehistorical market strength into consideration. If the historical marketstrength trend has been up, the daily market strength is up, and the sector strength is up, you have a powerful combination and you must playit accordingly. Once I give the historical market strength a score between⫹10 and ⫺10, I move onto the daytraders indicator.
DAYTRADER STRENGTHTo determine daytrader strength, I watch the small stocks ($5 to $10) andlook for unusual runs. On my Level 1 screen, I put up the hottest 10 smallstocks. I look for the following things:• The initial runs to see how far up they go (what percentage)• The bounces at the bottoms to see how much they bounce• Where the stock ends up at the end of the day (that is, near thehigh, middle, or low)I also watch to see if stocks peter out or run strong on the initial runs.If they peter out, that indicates that a lot of daytraders are losing moneyon residual bounces and are not playing them anymore. If stocks are running up big on their initial runs, bouncing big at the bottom, and ending up near the high of the day, I would consider the daytrader strengthscore to be high. Daytrader strength is also measured by the reaction ofstocks to news, especially on CNBC or in chat rooms. The initial climbsand the selling are good measures of how active they are. At times, goodnews will not move stocks very much, indicating they are a group oflosers. Other times a CEO burping can cause a 20-percent move in thestock. When daytraders are very active, you can get days in which thegainers will oscillate with very good potential most of the day. You canlearn to evaluate this indicator by tracking stories and watching how theyreact to that news.On a side note, the amateur online investor is a new factor that hasa similar effect. Remember, they are not looking at typical valuations suchas price to earnings; they seem to be buying what they feel will be goodinvestments in the next several years and are trading on much the samementality as the daytrader: hype. I consider this force to be much the
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same as the daytrader strength, but it can cause huge runs that can lastmuch longer. The only way to play them is to watch for sector strengthlike the Internet explosion. Once I give the daytrader strength a scorebetween ⫹10 and ⫺10, I move onto the micro-momentum.
MICRO-MOMENTUMThis is the most important indicator, but it must be taken into context withall the other indicators. This is the force affecting the individual stock andthe daily swings a stock will make. This is what causes a stock’s momentum, what gets the stock rolling. A number of causes, such as analysts’opinions or estimates, publication stories, news releases, hype in chatrooms, splits, or even a simple mention of the stock on CNBC or othernews programs, can cause this momentum. The number one cause forthis momentum is news. Although we touched on the news pattern earlier, it warrants a closer look when discussing market dynamics.Remember, as I stated earlier, the street always overreacts to news. Weneed to learn to rate the value of news and how it affects the momentumof a stock.All news must be evaluated according to how it will affect the bottom line: earnings. News has many different categories, but let’s go overwhat some of these are and how they are interpreted.• Mergers and acquisitions: It is very difficult to evaluate who willbenefit from these. The terms are often complicated and thetrades are generally unpredictable. We do not play these for thisreason. The only exceptions are for those stocks that are undervery obvious momentum. If we get any good pullbacks off thehighs, we play them like any other oscillating stock under strongmomentum. Keep in mind that the pace, volume, and upsidepotential must be good.• Pacts and deals: Two factors must be taken into account: timeframe and amount. For example, $100M over 1 year for a stockworth $5 is a big deal, but $500M over 25 years on an expensivestock will not affect the stock’s momentum much at all. The newsmust affect short-term earnings to entice traders. No one caresabout 10 years from now, so most of the time the potential is shortlived.• Inventions and services: We must consider marketability, cost,and competitors. A new digital television that costs $30K may bethe best TV in the world, but who is going to buy it? Remember,it is the short-term potential that is the key.
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• FDA news/bio-tech news: News that breaks concerning a curefor cancer always has more value over a breakthrough for someobscure disease. Generally, daytraders overreact to this type ofnews and the stock drops as fast as it rises. Ask yourself the following questions when evaluating this news: What phase trial isit in (I, II, III)? How expensive is the testing? How marketable isit? For example, a pill to cure some rare disease will not be as profitable as a pill to eliminate lung tumors. Again, remember, it isthe short-term potential you need to evaluate.• Earnings: Earnings are tricky. If a company announces earningsof 25 cents per share compared to 2 cents last year same quarter,it will get little reaction if this is exactly what everyone wasexpecting, but a company that is expected to release earningsof 8 cents a share but announces 35 cents a share will have a muchgreater impact on the stock’s movement. Earnings must be evaluated not only according to how well they did in comparisonto last year’s same quarter, but also to as what the street wasexpecting.Another factor is how the stock looks pre-market. Is it gapping upor down? How much volume does it have? The stronger it gaps, the better score it gets. The gap will determine selling. If a stock gaps up from$5 to $9 a share, you will get some profit-taking; however, if the story isa great story, it may only dip a small amount and then take off again. Ifa stock with a mediocre story gaps up from $10 to $12, it will most likelyfall and never reach its high again.For second-day gainers, you must also look at where the stockended up on the previous day: near the high, middle, or low of the day.If you have a stock that ended up near the high the previous day, wasup due to an absolutely great story with huge short-term earnings potential, and was gapping up big on good volume, we would give this a veryhigh score. The volume and pace also play an important role. A lowvolume stock will not score as well as a high-volume stock. The priceswing must be taken into account also.A stock that has too high a pace should be noted as being volatile.We are mostly interested in finding a stock that has a good pace, but notsuch that the trades become unreadable and therefore the directionbecomes unreadable. A very high-paced stock is scored high, but atrader must wait for the volatility to end, or the risk is just as high as thelow-volume stock. With overly volatile stocks, I will generally look forthe action to settle down and play any pullbacks if they occur. From allthis, I give the stock a score from ⫹10 to ⫺10.
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PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHERDo not concentrate on any one part of this five-part equation alone. Forexample, a great story, a huge short-term earnings potential, a huge gapup on good volume, and an end up near the high of the day yesterdaysound great. But if the sector strength, historical market strength, marketstrength, and daytraders strength are all weak, you may not get the follow-through you expected. You must look at all five indicators. The verydefinition of dynamics implies change. As a result, these values need to beassessed all day long. A good trader must keep track of first-day gainersand second-day gainers to reevaluate the values on an ongoing basis.The worst environment to trade in is one in which the indicators areall pretty much neutral. Panic buying or selling is always the best for us.This rule of movement and extremes is why our best and most predictable trades are those that have moved at least 20-percent.
EXAMPLE SCENARIOSLet’s look at a few scenarios. Use the following format for each example.SS ⫽ Sector StrengthMS ⫽ Market StrengthHM ⫽ Historical MarketDS ⫽ Daytrader StrengthMM ⫽ Micro-Momentum
SCENARIO #11. SS (⫹9) Mostly running up and gapping.2. MS (⫹10) First-day gainers are gapping high on big volume premarket, an dsecond-day gainers are gapping on large volume.3. HM (⫹8) Fairly strong last 3 days, up 90 points total.4. DS (⫹9) Small stocks are running up, with large bounces at bottoms, mostly ending near the top of the pattern.5. MM Good story; pre-market looks good with gapping and volume, and ended up at high of day yesterday.Well, it doesn’t get much better than this. This scenario will determine how much selling you can expect at the open and when you buy.All the indicators are working in our favor. I would either buy at firstup-tick or pre-market with indicators like this.
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If the Nasdaq was up for 3 days but only a total of 20 points insteadof 90, then, yes, it can continue up and selling could be minimal. But ifthe Nasdaq was up 90 points for 3 days straight, then I would expect selling to hit anytime. I would still buy the first up-tick, but at the first highI would take short-term profits and be more cautious.But if you change one or two of the indicators to a lower number,you must change the way you play it. For instance, let’s change the SSto a negative and the MM to a 6. How would this affect the way you playthis stock? Here is a good story in a strong market that daytraders like,but the sector is negative. It depends on how good the story is, but thesector will dampen the momentum on this stock. We may still want toplay this stock but certainly not buy it at pre-market or first up-tick. Youmay want to play the first bottom instead of right at the open as the DSis high, but play it with caution as the MM is now a 6. I would expectthe high to be a good short also. The greater the run-up, the more selling would occur at the top from the negative pull from the sector. Thisis what brings some of the high flyers down. So this would be an excellent candidate to go both ways on the trade, long and short.Now change the MS to a 4. How would this change the way youplay this stock? You have a good story in a strong sector, but second-daygainers are not following through, not gapping, and volume is down.Many different scenarios and combinations of each of these indicators canplay out.
SCENARIO #21. HM (⫺10) The historical market is down for several days.2. SS (⫺5) Most sectors will be selling off, but they will be thosethat have been hot recently and have gone up.3. DS (⫺8) Most of the time when the market is under a bigdowntrend, daytraders will be losing money as they almostalways attempt to go long. Unless we have a good climbingmarket, daytraders would be selling, and small stocks wouldnot be really active. When a steady decline happens, this number can go up as daytraders will find smaller stocks to buy.4. MS (⫺5) The market is gapping down.5. MM Under these conditions, I am looking for big gaps down atthe open. I expect the highs on any unusual gaps up or anyclimbs to facilitate shorting the highs. The historical market issuch that it will take over the pulse of all trading and we willbe primarily shorting, expecting the early highs to be sold
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down dramatically on the day. So any micro-momentum willbe short-lived and shorting anything at the highs would be ouraction. We would be doing quite a bit of open shorting, and itmay be the only thing we would be doing. So any gaps even orup will be candidates for open shorts.Under this down market, we are looking in our micro-environmentfor the gainers and sectors to begin to hit bottom and for buying toincrease. When that occurs, we can still nail the highs and do open shorts,but we are on alert. Remember that as the market dives, more value ispresented to the traders in cheap prices. But until we actually see signsof stocks climbing, we are expecting stair-stepping down on the day.
SCENARIO #31. HM (0) Begins to move from ⫺10 to 0 or even a bit positive.2. SS (⫹5) We should begin to see some leadership in the last hotsectors or we can even see new leadership with hot earnings inbio-techs, chip makers, computer makers, and Internets.Anything can catch fire and bring us out of a negative market.So this sector action should also be watched to see if we have asector that is leading us out of a negative market, such as if thesector is a ⫹5 after being a ⫺5.3. DS (0) Daytraders will be a bit slow to react to a correcting market, but they should be getting active after a big downtrendthat seems to be reversing, which is the intent of the previousexample.4. MS (⫹5) Gapping is looking good and we have the second-daygainers doing OK. Gaps seem to be holding.5. MM I am expecting a pretty good run on this stock because themarket has been under a big downtrend and our market is nowcorrecting to the upside. The selling at the open will begin todecrease as traders smell a market correction. I would be getting more aggressive with bottom buys, but to be sure the nervousness is behind us I will still be watching for an indicator.So the stair-step should be up from the first low.
SCENARIO #41. HM (⫹5)2. SS (⫹10)
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3. MS (⫹5)4. DS (⫹5)5. MM Under these conditions, I am expecting to catch the bottoms on the sector stocks that are hot, especially if I have a goodstory. If the daytraders are ⫹5 and above, I will probably belooking at any small stock from $1 to $6. They will probablyclimb from the open with very little selling. I like to target wholeprices for support and resistance on small stocks. In this market, I will be actively looking for news on small stocks.
SCENARIO #51. HM (⫹5)2. SS (⫹10)3. MS (⫹5)4. DS (⫺5)5. MM I will not be playing many small stocks unless the story isexceptional because even though everything is looking good inthe general market, small stocks are primarily the target of daytraders. If they are not active, even good news stories will notmove a stock. I will not be apt to be playing news plays on smallstocks.
SCENARIO #61. HM (⫹10)2. SS (⫹5)3. MS (⫹10)4. DS (⫹5)5. MM I am on extreme caution for selling due to the climbingmarket and it should be topping and making a short-termreversal. I will still not be shorting, but I will need an indicatorbefore going shopping off the bottoms. Daytraders are stillactive, so I will be jumping on small stocks still. Stocks runningfrom the open will be highly unlikely, and selling should beincreasing. Any extreme in the historical market such as big 3or 4-day drops or 3- or 4-day extreme climbs are primed toreverse.
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SCENARIO #71. HM (⫹5)2. SS (⫹5)3. MS (⫹5)4. DS (0)5. MM I am looking for a very nicely climbing stable market thathas been on a steady climb, which would probably be Nasdaqnumbers climbing about ⫹15 to ⫹20 per day and the Dow upabout ⫹35 per day. I will anticipate a stair-stepping up on anyfirst- and second-day gainers and I would expect fairly consistent pullbacks about $.75 or so with climbs about $1 to $2.Daytraders are not active, so I am not hot on news or smallerstocks. Sectors are good, so they would be in play. Looking forabout $.75 to $1 sell-offs and $1 to $2 runs.
SCENARIO #81. HM (0)2. SS (⫹1)3. MS (0)4. DS (⫺5)5. MM I am looking for very little opportunity and we would needthe cure to cancer on a day like today to make over a 1⁄2 point.Forget any news on small stocks. This is one of the worst typesof markets we play. Swings will be very narrow and we willhave to be very picky and only play the very best stocks. Timeto sit it out.These examples and the concept of market dynamics have a lot ofmoving parts. Don’t feel discouraged if you don’t fully understand it allyet. It takes time, and the only way to truly understand and use theseconcepts in daytrading is to keep a meticulous diary and track all indicators, one at a time at first.When you combine the concepts in market dynamics with the coremethods and the indicator method, you have a fuller understanding ofall the forces that act on individual stocks and are more apt to predicttheir expected movements and exploit them to their fullest.
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TRACKINGIn Chapter 6, “Predictable Patterns,” we briefly discussed tracking andits importance to the professional trader. We said it was paramount thattraders track their patterns to determine their expectations. Without it,they are trading blindly and only guessing what will happen. In thischapter, we will show you how to build your own tracking diary. Followalong with the chart at the end of this chapter as we discuss it.
BUILDING A TRACKING DIARYWhen developing a tracking diary, we basically want to derive a generalaction from the stocks as a whole. The tracking diary will answer manyimportant questions such as• Did gainers or dumpers sell down from the open or did they getimmediate buying?• Were the first up-ticks in the gainers worth enough potential togo long immediately? Should I be more patient and wait for pullback bottoms?• Should I short the tops? Does the risk not warrant it?Overall, we want to know how the gainers behaved. By keeping atracking diary, you can act according to your expectations instead of justa feeling. The purpose of tracking stocks is to develop patterns withinthe stock groups that we focus our methods on and then to developexpectations for the next day of trading based on those patterns. Itwill enhance your confidence in developing a plan for the next day oftrading.
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Learning how to track stocks is something everyone can do. It issimple enough that you may do it manually in a notebook or as Irecommend, using a Microsoft Excel or a Lotus spreadsheet template. Ittakes a bit longer to enter the data using a spreadsheet program , but theprogram enables you to analyze the information with statistical tools lateron if you so desire.The point is that tracking stocks is not hard to do. The hard partis developing patterns and expectations from what you track. Beingable to develop patterns and expectations becomes harder when you addmarket dynamics to the mix. Therefore, you must enhance your skills inmarket dynamics and then be able to associate those skills with yourtracking sheets in order to develop a clear tracking summary.It can be a hard process for many, but when it finally clicks, it canreally improve trading percentages. It builds your confidence in thetrades that you enter. More importantly, it keys you in to trades thatyou should not enter. Daytrading is about minimizing losses andriding gains. Tracking can better aid you in doing that as it provides aninside look to which groups are providing the most potential for highpercentage trades.Take a look at the tracking chart in Figure 9-1 at the end of the chapter. Now that we have our tracking sheet set up and ready to go, we canbegin to enter data into the tracking sheet to make it come alive. We mustknow what to put into the tracking sheet that will help us determinewhich stocks to watch, track, and develop our patterns and expectationsfrom. Let us assume that this is your first tracking sheet.We look for stocks to put into one of our four categories. Again,momentum causes our stocks to move and momentum is created bynews. We need to look for news that we feel will create momentum. Wecan do this by watching television commentary like CNBC, scanningnews services, and watching the chat rooms for news postings. We canalso scan stock screens to alert us to stocks that are trading higher andlower and then try to find news associated with that stock. We begin tomake a list on our screen of the stocks that have news attached to them,positive and negative. Then we attach the criteria to each stock. We lookfor the volume parameters and the price appreciation or depreciationparameters. If both of those are being met, we can begin to enter the symbols of those stocks into the appropriate group in our tracking sheet.At 9:15 A.M. EST, we look to see where our futures closed and weplace that number in our tracking sheet under the futures heading. By9:20 A.M. EST, you should have a tracking sheet that includes the date,
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the symbols for each stock group, and the fair value and futures figures.You are now done with the tracking sheet until the end of the tradingday.Now it’s 4:00 P.M. EST and the market has closed. The first thing youdo is check to see what the ending figures were for the three indices: Dow,S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Under each heading, you need to enter the data.Take note to wait about 5 minutes after the market closes to copy downthe indices figures as settlement orders fluctuate the ending index figures a couple minutes after the close of the trading day. What we areabout to do with the rest of the tracking sheet is the most important partof your day: entering in the data for each stock symbol. It is from thisinformation that we gauge our stock’s behavior and develop our patterns. Therefore, you must be as accurate as you can about the information that you place in this part of the tracking sheet.The first thing we need to do is determine the gap of the stock, theopening price, and the closing price of the stock. We can do this by simply looking at the Level 1 stock screen. To determine the gap of the stock,you need to subtract yesterday’s closing price with today’s opening price.So if a stock closed yesterday at 40 and opened today at 40 1⁄2 , then weenter ⫹1⁄2 into our Gap column next the corresponding stock. If the stockclosed yesterday at 40 and opened today at 39 1⁄2, then we enter 1⁄2 in theGap column next to the corresponding stock. We must do this with allof our stock symbols. We can also determine the open and the closingprice of the stock from the Level 1 stock screen. Simply look under theheading in your stock screen that says Open and Close, and copy thosefigures into the tracking sheet corresponding to the stock symbol thoseprices are associated with.Finally, we have to enter in the data for the half-hour intervals andthen note the stock action. To retrieve the data for the half-hour intervals,I suggest you use a 1-minute bar chart, which should be provided to youby your broker. If you do not have access to a one-minute bar chart, thenyou can use the following URL to retrieve a line chart for the corresponding stock: http://quote.yahoo.com. I recommend that you find aservice that gives you access to a one-minute interval chart for thefuture. It will help you determine prices at specific intervals better thana line chart will.Now you need to simply connect the time intervals with the pricelevels on the one-minute bar chart and find out at which price level thosetwo data inputs meet on the chart. Record those figures in your trackingsheet for each half-hour interval until you reach the closing price.
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After you complete entering in the data in each half-hour interval,you need to complete the last phase of entering data, noting the stockaction. When you begin to assess the stock’s action for the day, the mostimportant information that you want to bring from the stock chart is fromthe open to near 12:00 P.M. EST. This time period is where most of ourmomentum occurs. Therefore, this time period is where our highest percentage trades are found. Afternoon trading has weakening momentumand less percentage trading. Although we note the price of each intervalin the afternoon, we are more interested in tracking the first two and ahalf hours of the market.When we begin to note our stock’s behavior in writing, we need tobe looking for the following things that may have occurred. In our firstday gainers, we need to determine how much potential our first up-tickswere worth. We need to know if that stock sold down from the open andif so, by how much. We need to determine how many bottoms the gainerhad and how much each bottom was worth in upside potential. Finally,we need to note if the gainer was strong, weak, or flat into the closing ofthe trading day.For second-day gainers, we need to note if the stocks were safe toopen short or not. If so, how much did the stock sell down and howstrong was the resulting bounce? Also, we need to know if the bottomoccurred within the first 5 to 10 minutes or not as we want to note fastbottoms if they occurred. If the stock ran from the open, how many pointsdid it run before selling down and was the resulting bounce off that firstsell-off enough to regain or take over the previous high? If it wasn’t, thenhow much lower did the stock sell off? Finally, we want to note the actionof the stock into the closing of the day. Was it strong, weak, or flat?For first-day dumpers, we need to determine if the stock sold offfrom the open and if so, by how much. Then we need to note how manybottoms the dumpers made during the day and how much each bottomwas worth. If the stock ran from the open, then we need to note howmany points until its first top and if it ever regained that high for the restof the day. Again, we need to note the ending action of the stock.Complete this process for each resulting stock until you movethrough the four groups and are completely finished entering all the datafor each data field. It’s important that when you are entering the data intothe fields, you are using information from stocks that have traded at least1,000,000 shares on the day. If you pick a stock that has lower volumethan that, then the data is skewed and may be unreliable. Also, try notto write down each oscillation that occurs as it will cloud the tracking
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sheet with more information than you need. Remember that we need tomake this as clear and readable as possible, so noting the point potentialfor tops and bottoms is what is important.After you are finished entering the data, you can then begin to enterdata into the next day’s tracking sheet. Your first-day gainers from todaycan be entered into the tracking sheet’s second-day gainer group fortomorrow. The same can be done for today’s first-day dumper group.They will be tomorrow’s second-day dumper group. When you are finished with all of this, it is time to begin analyzing the data you enteredinto the tracking sheet. From this, you can begin developing patterns inour stock groups.
ANALYZING THE DATAAs we begin to analyze the data that we have entered into our trackingsheets, we need to understand what we are looking for. Remember thatwe already have expectations of each group, such as buying the firstup-ticks in first-day gainers and weakness at the open in second-daygainers. Now we would like to compare our tracking data to those expectations to see if the pattern still holds true. More importantly, we needto assess how much potential each expectation has given us to assesswhether or not that pattern is worth trading.For instance, if our first-day up-tick play was worth .15 of a pointon the upside before selling off near 2 points, then we would not consider that enough potential to say that the action followed our patternsof expectations.To illustrate this point, let us take a look at the tracking chart again.We have tracked five first-day gainers. The symbols are QLGC, REGI,THDO, AMTD, and EGRP. To analyze our data, we move to our columnheading Stock’s Action and see what happened. It says that QLGC wentup from the open near 14 points before making its first top. On QLGC,our first up-tick occurred at the open and it would have given us near14 points in potential if we had played the first up-tick. REGI sold offfrom the open 5⁄8 points. Then the resulting up-tick off that bottom wasworth a 3⁄4-point climb.THDO went up 5⁄8 points from the open and then never made a nicebounce the rest of the day off its first top. So the first up-tick occurred atthe open and it went up 5⁄8 points from the open price. AMTD went up 5points from the open, so the first up-tick also occurred at the open. EGRP
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sold down off 3⁄4 points from the open price and then went up 4 pointsfrom the resulting first up-tick. So each first up-tick on our first-day gainers held true to the pattern that our first up-ticks would give us goodpotential.Next, we look at the second moves on our first-day gainers to assessif we can play a pullback on the stock that can warrant another trade.The reason we do this is because if a stock moves up from the open, wehave no expectations on how far the stock can go up. The result of thisis that traders may wait for a pullback on the stock so that they have abetter gauge of its strength as it is more readable on a pullback than it isfrom the open.We notice that QLGC sold down 7 points from its high beforebouncing 5 points. THDO never gave a reasonable bounce as it was weakthe rest of the day. AMTD sold down 11 points from its top with a near71⁄2 point potential upside. We note that our bounces were great fortwo of the three stocks. However, we can’t expect to always get thebottom on the first try. This is where our stops come in handy. We wouldprobably have taken one or two stops trying to find the bottom on QLGCand AMTD. Suppose each stop was 1⁄2 at the most. We would have lost 1point potentially in stops with a near 7 points in potential off that lastbottom.This is where we assess the risk of stops in relation to their potential. The risk is well worth the stops and therefore we would expect tosearch for bottoms in this group. THDO was simply not a participatorin the group; therefore, if you played it, you would have stopped outonce or twice, but the stops would have been small and you most likelywould have lost money on it. You must not let one stock in a group dictate your expectations. You must assess the group as a whole. Based onthe action as a whole, we have a pattern of buying the first up-ticks andpullbacks, giving us potential that is worth the stops.In our second-day gainer group, we tracked three stocks: QWST,SNRZ, and PCLN. The first move that we look for is which stocks solddown from the open and by how much. It is also important to see howfast because sometimes a fast jumpy bottom will be just as dangerousto play. For instance, QWST and SNRZ both down-ticked merely 1⁄16 of apoint before bouncing 2 and 