bullmarkets, 151–152overview, 144rising currency markets, 152secular bear market in stocks isgood for gold, 152
RReal estate, diversifying withcomparison to other cycles1930s, 225–226history since 1940, 226stock market and interest rates,226–227decoupling from market during1999, 228–229housing stocks link to interestrates, 229market rotation during 2000,230–231relinking with stock market,231–232Fed’s deflation fight boostshousing stocks, 232housing tradeoff, 232Japanese real estate collapsedtwo years after stocks, 233overview, 225cycle has been different, 217–218housing is interest rate-sensitive, 223location is everything, 217long cycle in real estate activity, 225real estate does not always followinflation, 224
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Real estate (continued)real estate does not always followinterest rates, 224real estate does not always followstocks, 224–225Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs)change during summer of 2002,220peak in 2002 as market bottoms,221–222role reversals in 2000, 218–220turn up as Nasdaq peaks, 218underperform after summer of2002, 222–223Right shoulder, 29
SSectors, market, 71Shane, Matthew, 236Single market analysis, 81Stealth bear market of 1994bonds and stocks rise together until1998, 49–50bonds peak ahead of stocks, 41–43CRB/bond ratio, 49CRB indexdescription of, 33–34industrial versus agriculturalmarkets, 34–37rise in early 1993, 34favorable trends from 1990 through1993, 33gold and oil, importance of, 39–40Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), 40intermarket picture reverses in1995, 46–48Journal of Commerce(JOC)–Economic CycleResearch Institute (ECRI)Industrial Price Index, 37–39
INDEX
loss for utilities is a gain for metals,43–45stealth bear market, 43Stock market crash of 1987fall of bonds before, 7fall of dollar with stocks, 8–10global in scope, 10–12overview, 6–7rise of commodities before, 7stock market peak in August,7–8Stovall, Sam, 109, 200–201Stovall’s circle, 200–201
TTechnical Analysis of the FuturesMarkets, 52, 195Trading range, 102Triple top pattern, 222000, burst of Nasdaq bubble in.See Nasdaq bubble bursts in20002001 recessionpredicting, 186–187three markets followed properrotation for tops, 1872003 (spring) intermarket picture.See Intermarket picture inspring 20032002 fall of dollar. See Dollar, fallduring 2002 boostscommodities
WWar premium, 134
XXAU (Gold Index), 125–126
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