Coffee, Sugar, and Cotton Exchange) Division of the NewYork Board of Trade rate satisfactory for volume. Daily volume isnormally 10,000 or more contracts. Volatility is also high. It regularly scores in the top 10 in Futures magazine’s “Movers andShakers” list, which is published in its annual sourcebook (Table9-1). Sugar and frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) are usually in the volatility top 10 as well.Weather, as with any crop commodity, is critical. Coffee needssubstantial amounts of rain during the growing season, up to 40inches. Arabica is more sensitive, while robusta is hardier. Satelliteweather maps, available on the Internet, will keep you informed,but you must be attentive.CocoaFrom a scale trader’s perspective, cocoa is similar to coffee. It doesnot have a perfect market. Price and supply are inelastic.Production takes place in Africa primarily, while some is producedin South America. Undeveloped governments control supply;demand is global and inelastic. Daily volume on the exchange is
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usually over 5000 contracts, and volatility is strong. It has been historically a great scale trading play.International commissions, composed of producer and userstates, attempt to manage the supply-demand balance for both coffee and cocoa. These organizations can be the scale trader’s bestfriend; they can turn on the light at the end of the supply-demandtunnel. If you scale these commodities, become familiar withthem. For coffee, it is the International Coffee Organization(www.ico.org), which is composed of 24 exporting and 14 importing countries. The International Cocoa Organization, with its 18exporting and 22 importing member states, is the counterpart ofthe ICO. Both are affiliated with International Monetary Fund(www.imf.org), which has substantial influence on supply-demandbalances among undeveloped countries. If you trade any commodities that originate in undeveloped countries, you would dowell to check the news on the IMF’s site occasionally.SugarWhen I speak of futures trading in sugar, I am specifically referringto World Sugar No. 11 traded on the New York Board of Trade(NYBOT). It is the contract with sufficient daily volume, over25,000 contracts each trading session, to be scale traded. There aresome other contracts on sugar, but they lack volume.Sugar is somewhat trickier to scale trade than coffee or cocoa.It has a history of shooting up to unrealistic highs and wallowingat lows for extended periods of time. It is the latter behavior thatthe scale trader must avoid. This can result in costly contractrollovers.It is a semiperfect market. There are large planters, particularly in cane sugar. For sugar beets, the production is more democratic. The cane sugar is harvested all year long, whereas sugar beetproduction is seasonal. This can prove difficult to track, yet theamount of information about supply and demand is plentiful.Production is global. The main producing countries are Brazil,Cuba, India, and Australia. Production is split 60-40 between sugarcane and beets. Cane is a perennial, although it does have to bereplanted periodically, and production is easy to predict. Sugarbeet acreage varies annually and will adjust to demand.
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Demand is also a relatively dependable prognosticationbecause producing countries tend to use most of their ownproduction. Only 15 percent of the crop hits the open market.Additionally, there are few substitutes. The exception is highfructose corn syrup, which is popular only in well-developedcountries, where most of the world’s population does not reside.Sugar is a good scale trading candidate, but be sure you havea feel for when the light at the end of the supply-demand tunnel isgoing to come on before starting a scale. Weather is usually the keyand is as unpredictable as it is necessary.Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ)In my estimation, this is a questionable scale trading candidate. Thereason is that the supply side of the supply-demand equation dominates. FCOJ can be stored indefinitely, making warehouse stocks acritical factor. You will find the same problem with pork bellies.If you are in a FCOJ scale and warehouse stocks are plentiful,it takes a weather catastrophe to take you out of your scale. Now,weather and insects can do that, but it is not something you wantto depend on. The weather problem must be in Florida, the majorproducing location, to make a major impact. But there is stillproduction in California, Texas, and Arizona. The biggest supplythreat outside the United States is Brazil, and it is substantial. I prefer commodities that have a more even balance between supplyand demand and do not depend so much on uncontrollable factors,such as weather or news. Finally, daily volume, which runs around3000 contracts, is on the light side.CottonCotton fits most of the criteria we are looking for to scale trade. Itis produced by thousands of farmers in over 75 countries. The buyers are somewhat more consolidated, but there is a strong core ofcotton brokers and merchants. I say it is a near-perfect market, certainly global.Information is plentiful from USDA and cotton industrygroups. Price is elastic, since there are man-made substitutes. Thefour keys that govern price are weather, domestic and foreign gov-
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ernment programs, fashion, and carryover (inventories). Volatilityis in the upper half of the major commodities, and volume isacceptable at approximately 10,000 contracts per trading session.The only weevil in the boll is type. There are several typesdepending on color, length of fiber, and “mike.” Mike is short formicronaire. It is a measure of airflow through cotton. Immature oroverly mature cottons have lower values than perfectly mature cotton. In other words, it is a measure of quality.If you are scaling cotton using the futures contract on the NewYork Cotton Exchange, the contract calls for 100 bales (50,000ponds) of low-middling, 11⁄16 inch premium mike. When you see anews story discussing the scarcity of cotton, you need to know thetype of cotton or its use.LumberLumber, as a commodity, does not fit very many of the criteria Ihave set. It is not a perfect market. Nor is it global or liquid. It isvolatile and there is plenty written about it. The main use, ofcourse, is for building and furniture. Paper is also a concern on thedemand side. Prices are elastic on the supply side, but not so muchon the demand side. If home building is strong, prices for lumberbecome almost immaterial as the costs are passed on to the homebuyers. Politics, in the sense of environmentalists versus loggers, isa factor. The uncontrollable and unexpected include major forestfires, diseases, insects, and prolonged droughts.Mostly, it is the daily trading volume, which can be as low as1000 contracts, that forces me to give it only one thumb up as a scaletrading candidate. Yet when you peruse the 10-year price chart, youwill notice some very attractive swings from overbought to oversoldconditions that would have made excellent scale trades. My advicewould be not to start with lumber, but consider it when it looks particularly attractive and you have gained some experience tradingthin markets. For a recap of food and fiber, refer to Figure 6-3.
THE MEAT COMPLEXNow we will take a look at live cattle, feeder cattle, lean hogs, andpork bellies as possible scale trading candidates. First, let me cross
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FIGURE
6-3
Food and FiberCoffeeCocoaSugarFCOJCottonLumber
off pork bellies from the list. My reason is excess volatility; it is tooerratic for my taste. When I first got into this business, I waswarned: “Never trade pork bellies, unless you work for HeinholtCommodities.” This company is heavily committed to this marketand seems to have an edge when it comes to pork belly trading. Idon’t know what it is—experience, reliable information, or anything else—but I personally have not seen anyone successfullyscale trade pork bellies, let alone trade them. As I said in theIntroduction, never trade without an edge. I believe that and do notrecommend scaling pork bellies.Live and Feeder CattleInitially, one would think live cattle would be a very simplefutures contract to scale trade because of the time it takes, approximately 21⁄2 years, to bring a steer to market. You use the pipelinemethod of fundamental analysis with livestock to determine supply and demand. The number of animals in each stage of the entirecycle are counted—the number of cows pregnant (9-month gestation period), calves born, weaned at 300–500 pounds, put on pasture or shipped to a feedlot, and, finally, sent to slaughter. This isthe supply side.All manner of reports, private and public (USDA’s Cattle onFeed Report), monitor the numbers and movement. The fact that ittakes a good deal of time to make any meaningful adjustment
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would make it seem easy for a scale trader to predict when the lightat the end of the supply-demand tunnel is getting brighter. Thereused to be a very well-defined seven-year cycle, moving from oversupply to undersupply.Unfortunately, this is not the case anymore. Although thereare thousands of small feedlots on farms, the cattle business is nota perfect market. Large, corporate meat packers buy most of thefeeders. It is at this point in the process that the perfect market terminates. The fact that the packing plants are high-overhead facilities, with contracts to supply major grocery chains, means that theymust process meat when the margins are high or low. The systempushes product onto the market with the expectation that adjustments in the retail price will smooth out the supply-demand kinks.It is only when the retail customer balks at high prices that the system backs up. Also food chains can feature cheap meat to attractcustomers and still make their profit margins on other items.Now this is not necessarily a problem for the scale trader,because the high end of the price chart is not where you will be buying and selling. The problem is that any indigestion within the supply-demand track will cause severe hiccups in the futures market.In other words, the elements of the meat complex—cattle, feeders,hogs, and pork bellies—are known for having more than their shareof limit-up or limit-down trading sessions.If you own a position and a limit move against you occurs,you must have—or you will be forced to add—sufficient marginmoney to hold your positions. Unfortunately, you cannot close theposition to relieve yourself of the financial obligation, since notrading takes place. It is for this reason I recommend strongly totrade with options whenever you scale trade in the meat complex.Your options will help compensate for the losses sustained in yourfutures positions at the beginning of a scale.On the demand side, meat for human consumption is theprimary use. There is a certain amount of inelasticity in pricing,but there is a price point beyond which consumers look for substitutes (chicken, pork, fish, etc.) or switch to cheaper cuts (hamburger vs. T-bone).The meat complex is not a global market in that, while thereis some importing and exporting, it is not a major element of thesupply-demand equation. Countries tend to import breeding
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animals and develop their own meat industry, rather than importthe finished product. Box beef may be the exception.Unfortunately, the box beef may be inbound for Australia, increasing supply and extending scales. Carryover, meat in freezerplants, needs to be monitored closely. This is particularly true forpork bellies (bacon) and another reason not to scale them. As forthe feeder cattle futures contract, it is too thinly traded for me.Leave it for the speculators to enjoy.HogsThe production cycle of hogs is substantially shorter than that ofcattle. The gestation period is four months, and it takes only sixmore months to deliver a 220-pound hog to market.Another big difference is the centralization of the hog industry.The small hog framers, known as “inners” and “outers,” are longgone. These were farmers who bought some feeder pigs when hogprices were high, fed them out on pasture with their own corn, andcashed in on the uptrend. They have been replaced with highly efficient farrow-to-finish operations. This has diminished the perfectmarket and increased volatility in the futures market, as mentionedin the cattle section. Again, be wary of limit-up and limit-downtrading sessions in this market.The fundamental analytic approach is the pipeline method.What is the number of farrowings? How plentiful are feeder pigs?How many gilts will be held back for breeding? How many markethogs are in the pipeline and at what weights? What is in cold storage? As a scale trader of hogs, you will become an avid reader ofUSDA’s Hogs and Pigs Report, which is issued quarterly—March,June, September, and December. You must also have a commoditybroker that has sources that can anticipate or project the pipelinenumbers before the USDA reports.I give one thumb up to scale trading cattle and hogs, two ifyou use options, and no thumbs up for pork bellies and feeder cattle (see Figure 6-4).
THE PETROLEUM COMPLEXThis complex is made up of crude oil, its byproducts (heating oiland gasoline), and natural gas.
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6-4
The Meat ComplexLive CattleHogsPork BelliesFeeder Cattle
Crude Oil and Its ByproductsA perfect market? Not with the likes of Exxon-Mobil, DutchPetroleum, OPEC, and nationalization of production by severalprominent nations.On the other hand, information regarding supply anddemand is as plentiful as the commodity is global. The price is evenelastic, and weather is not a factor, at least on the supply side. Onthe demand side, cold weather can drive prices of heating oil andnatural gas higher. Good summer weather increases demand forgasoline. And the futures market is both liquid (crude 150,000 contracts a day, heating oil and unleaded gasoline 35,000, natural gas70,000) and volatile.Politics is the most disturbing factor. It can range from anincrease in import-export duties to war. As we all know, OPECquarrels among its own member countries as much as it brawlswith the rest of the world. There is just too much money at stakeand too much world dependency on this commodity.As with soybeans and the crush spread, it is important to trackthe crack spread when scaling petroleum. The crack spread is thedifference in price between crude oil and the combined prices ofthe byproducts of cracking—heating oil and gasoline. It is a goodmethod for getting a handle on demand.Is crude oil and its byproducts a good scaling commodity?Yes. My greatest concern is major political upheaval. But when thisoccurs, it will most likely drive prices higher and take you out ofyour scale. On the other hand, crude oil prices can remain low forextended periods of time, like sugar. You must have some idea orreasonable assurance that there is an oil lamp burning at the end ofthe supply-demand tunnel before beginning a scale.
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Natural GasThe natural gas industry has come a long, long way since its earlydevelopment stages at the turn of the twentieth century. In theUnited States, it has gone through four distinct phases:1. Development, 1910–19502. Regulation, 1950–19703. Market inefficiency, late 1970s to 1980s4. The present time, an era of adjustment, restructuring, andderegulationThe industry is just now learning how to deal with competition andhow to regulate itself. These historic changes account for the pricevolatility we currently see in the futures market. I am not sure Iwould call it a perfect market due to its history of regulation, butthere are approximately 8000 independent and 24 major producerson the supply side. The gas is then transported through 160 pipelinesto 1500 local gas utilities, via 260 marketers. On the demand side,there is a crowd: 53,000,000 residential users, 4,500,000 commercialusers, 40,000 industrial and 500 electric utilities. But the competitionis localized because few communities are serviced by more than onepipeline or utility. Expensive infrastructure reduces competition.Here are the key forces impacting supply and demand. Thefirst is weather. Above (air conditioning) or below (heating) normaltemperatures reduce supply and increase demand. Lack of reliable,timely information impacts both supply and demand, causingexplosive price movement in the spot and futures markets. Stocklevels, pipeline capacity, and operational problems hamper delivery and reduce supplies. Strong economic conditions result inincreased demand.Due to its history as a heavily regulated industry, there is noshortage of information available on the supply-demand situation.Check out www.eia.doe.gov as an example. DOE is the Departmentof Energy. Additionally, just about every pipeline company, utility,local distributing company, or marketer (gas broker) has somethingto say on its Web site. There is even a chat room (www.strategiestactics.com), not to mention many consumer groups.Some natural gas is imported, mainly from Canada, but Iwould not call it a global market. Gas is used worldwide and there
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is some import-export business, but moving natural gas has itsrestrictions. Now that many regulations have been rolled back,there is quite a bit of elasticity in pricing. Nevertheless, politics willalways be a part of this market. If prices get too high for constituents, what will politicians do?Volume of the Henry Hub Natural Gas contract on the NewYork Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) runs around 70,000 contractsdaily, which is more than sufficient. As mentioned earlier, pricevolatility is not a problem. Natural gas is a good candidate.Other Energy ContractsThere are several other energy-related futures contracts that arepossibilities, such as propane or electricity, but I do not recommendthem. In general, they lack the trading volume needed to tradecomfortably (see Figure 6-5).
THE METAL COMPLEXLet’s talk a little about the futures contracts in silver, copper, gold,palladium, platinum, and aluminum. Of these, I recommend onlysilver, copper, gold, and platinum. Although I have seen someclients have success in scaling palladium, I still think it and aluminum are too thinly traded, especially for traders new to the concept of scale trading. Platinum is also thinly traded, but it hasFIGURE
6-5
Crude Oil and ByproductsCrude OilHeating OilGasolineNatural GasPropaneElectricity
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performed rather well as a scale trading candidate. It is one commodity I reserve for the experienced practitioner. When a futuresmarket has low volume, you often find the options are alsoextremely thinly traded as well, doubling your risk factor.SilverSince silver today is mined as a byproduct of the mining of basemetals, such as copper, zinc, and lead, the supply side cannot besaid to be a perfect market. The companies that do the mining aremajor conglomerates and are few in number. Additionally, thereare hundreds of thousands of hoarders throughout the world thatdump silver when it reaches an attractive price. Owners of silverobjects and silverware can also be counted on to part with theseitems when the market calls. This behavior can put a top on themarket, at least the spot market, and prolong bear markets. Themines continue to produce the silver, since it is a byproduct, as longas there is demand for the main product. This can create an oversupply situation that takes months, even years, to work out.The majority of demand comes from the electrical and photographic industries. Jewelry manufacturers are also big buyers. Thisside of the supply-demand equation is a more “perfect” market.Information about silver and its price does not go begging.You can find all you want to know from commodity brokers andcoin merchants and collectors, jewelry industry as well as miningand government sources. There is no doubt it is a global marketand the price is elastic. Since it is considered by some as a hedgeagainst inflation, there is always plenty of political activity involving silver prices. Price volatility is satisfactory for scale trading, asis the volume of COMEX silver at approximately 16,000 contracts aday. It has my vote as a scale trading candidate.CopperCopper is similar to silver. It is mined by large companies and usedby thousands of manufacturers and home builders. Effective reclamation programs augment the supply side. Additionally, it scorespositive for most of the criteria we are using to evaluate scale trading candidates. Again, trade the COMEX contract to get the benefitof the 10,000 to 15,000 contracts traded daily.
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GoldThis is not a perfect market. The supply side is difficult to evaluate for two reasons. First, most gold is produced in South Africaand Russia. Neither can be depended upon to bring gold to themarket in an orderly fashion. They will hold back at times andthen dump gold for foreign currencies at other times. The secondproblem is hoarders. They can be central banks, OPEC, and hundreds of thousands of individuals. Demand is equally difficult togauge because 60 percent of gold is used for jewelry, which is afickle fashion market.On the other hand, information is plentiful, but price tends tobe inelastic. There are substitutes, such as platinum. It certainly isglobal, and politics often plays a role in its movement and pricing.Traditionally prices have been volatile, but the last few yearsit has been in a steady downtrend from $400 to $300 an ounce. Thevolume on COMEX has always been strong. I consider it a scaletrading candidate, but I would want to have a good reason why thelight at the end of the supply-demand tunnel is going to turn onbefore I started a scale. Of the metals, I’d recommend scaling halfof them (see Figure 6-6).
THE COMMODITY INDEXThere is one index you should definitely track and possibly evenscale trade. This is not for the beginner. You need deep pocketswhenever you trade an index, especially when you scale trade one.FIGURE
6-6
The MetalsSilverGoldPalladiumPlatinumAluminumCopper
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Also keep in mind that there is not a daily trading limit, whichmeans the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) can plunge orsoar any number of points in a given trading session. The onlything that can stop it is the bell, but each of the components of theindex has daily limitsYou should track it and the CRB (Commodity ResearchBureau) Index to get an overview of the price trend in commodities,but refrain from trading the CRB Index due to its weak trading volume. Knowing the overall trend can sometimes make a differencewhen you are deciding if it is the right time to start a scale.The GSCI contains most of the commodities I have recommended as scale trading candidates. It includes 6 energy products,9 metals, and 11 agricultural commodities. The index is weightedbased on the average quantity produced over the last five years.Therefore, it responds to world economic growth. Due to its composition and weighting, the various components tend to compensate each other. When the world economy is dominated byunderdeveloped countries, the agricultural and petroleum-basedcommodities drive the index. Conversely, the metals move theindex when industrial nations are expanding. For this reason, itdoes not have the volatility of other commodities. I rank it as amarginal scale trading candidate.
THE FINANCIAL AND CURRENCY FUTURESI do not consider any of what are commonly known as financialfutures (bonds, interest rates, stock indexes, foreign currencies,etc.) to be legitimate scale trading opportunities. They are not purecommodities. They do not have commercial users (inventory manFIGURE
6-7
Noncommodity CandidatesGoldman Sachs Commodity IndexCommodity Research Bureau IndexFinancial MarketsForeign and Domestic Markets
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agers) buying them to use in production. Commodities are influenced by inflation. So when you enter a scale using the lower 25percent of the 10-year trading range, you should get some helpfrom 10 years of inflation to get you safely out of your scale.Commodities are used up and must be reproduced. This takestime, and production problems can occur. It is not like printing acouple of trillion dollars’ worth of a currency or bonds. Financialfutures are not commodities, and only real commodities should bescale traded in my opinion. For this reason, the financials get twothumbs-down (see Figure 6–7).
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Mechanics ofScale Trading
You now have a good list of scale trading candidates. The verynext thing you need to do is acquire a set of long-term price chartsfor each commodity on the list. Commodity price charts are available on the World Wide Web through price quotation services,through special trading programs, or as Omega Research, andthrough subscription services that send you updated charts weekly.When you decide to get serious about trading commodities,subscribe to a good price-charting software package. If you decideto use only end-of-day prices as opposed to real-time prices, youcan find some very reasonably priced services. As a scale trader,you may not need real-time quotes. Real-time means tick by tick,observing every change in price as it happens. Delayed quotes areless expensive since fees to the exchanges do not have to be paid.Delayed means you receive them 15 minutes after they actuallyhappen. End-of-day quotes are even less expensive.Which do you need? That depends somewhat on what yourbroker and his or her firm provide its customers. Some of the electronic services provide real-time quotes on demand, but you haveto constantly refresh them. Other services include streaming quotesor quotes on their Web sites. If you deal with a live broker, you cancall in for quotes.As a scale trader, you can usually get by with a system thatdelivers quotes on demand, because trading is somewhat automatic
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once a scale begins. But for planning scales and selecting entrypoints, I think you need access to a price-quotation platform thatallows you to generate charts, draw lines denoting key support andresistance areas, and plot some moving averages. This can be donewith end-of-day price data, unless you get into some of the moreadvanced strategies.To get started, you can find Web sites that provide price chartsby using a good search engine, such as Google (www.google.com),and searching for “commodity price charts.” Hundreds of possibilities are available. Find a service you like and print out the monthlycharts for each commodity you want to consider. Monthly chartswill give you the long-term perspective, over a decade or more.Charts can be generated for virtually any time frame from minutes,to days, to weeks, to months. Next, draw parallel lines on the chartmarking the highest and the lowest price. When you have access toa computerized charting program, it makes this exercise much easier and faster.For example, let’s say the high for a given commodity is$10.00 and the low is $4.00 per unit over the last 10 years. Thatgives you a $6.00 price range from low to high. Dividing $6.00 by 4gives you $1.50. Adding $1.50 to the low designates $5.50 as thebeginning of the price level that is the lower 25 percent of the 10year trading range. Draw two parallel lines vertically on the chartat the $10 and the $4 marks. Then draw a third parallel line at the$5.50 price level. Also draw a line at 33 percent above the low,which would be the $6 price point.Do this for each commodity that was given a two thumbs-uprating in Chapter 6. You can store these charts in a three-ring binderor post them on a bulletin board. You need to check these charts ona regular basis and update them at least weekly to monitor whichcommodities are in or moving into the lower 33 percent to 25 percent of their 10-year trading range. Naturally, these are the onesyou will consider scale trading.You can usually get long-term charts free on the Internet, butyou may have to pay for a service to get weekly and daily charts.The monthly charts provide the 10-year overview. It isn’t until youperuse the weekly charts that you see specific scale trading opportunities. Once you have spotted one, you start tracking the 30-daydaily chart and plot the 20-day moving average on it to find an
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entry point. Again, on a computerized charting package, these areautomatic functions