[Rant] coronavirus
corona covid covid19 lockdown social distancing
A rant about toilet paper and lockdowns.

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 This video is going to be a rant. There is not really a script and I have not really thought this through. But I would like to talk about some things that are on my mind and that I don't see discussed very often with respect to coronavirus. I'm not a medical expert. I don't play a doctor on the internet. And there absolutely is no need to follow any of my advice or take anything as advice that I say. I just want to talk and maybe someone else will have a good idea of what I talk. So it is a crazy world we live in. I would have never thought at the beginning of this year that this would be the year where everyone stays at their house and works from home. I've always thought that in a time like this, when the economy is going down, basically the thing of value would be something like Bitcoin or Ethereum or alternative things. But no, everything is going down and the actual new currency of choice is toilet paper. Everyone is going to grab the toilet paper. What a crazy world where the most trusted news source is someone like Tucker Carlson. Yeah, didn't see that one coming. Thanks, Tucker, for saving us. So I don't know what to make of this. And I do know that this is a serious situation. And you should definitely do everything you can to take care of yourself and to take care of your community. What I want to talk about is the question of what is it going to do long term? So if we think about this, we often think about this right now. We have an exponential increase in number of cases. You've probably seen this and you've probably seen graphics like these where the goal is to flatten the curve. The sense behind this being that if this rises exponentially, of course, at some point it will affect the entire population. So it's going to flatten out. And if you look at the number of new cases daily, it might be some curve like this. The problem is that we only have a finite capacity of health care systems. So all of these people are basically going to be screwed once we get to this point. Now, the goal is to flatten the curve, that we can take some measures to keep this curve under or at the capacity of our health care system. These measures are varying wildly. So it is these measures that I want to talk about a bit. Now, these measures range from something like social distancing, where you basically say, all right, no big events, no groups of large people, social distancing. And just kind of avoid contact with other people. Now, of course, all the CS departments of the world go like, well, this is business as usual. Like, yay, we've practiced for this our entire lives. So it is mildly inconvenient. But we can keep it up all the way to lockdown. Lockdown comes also in various forms. But the most drastic sense is stay home or you'll get shot or locked up or something like this. And it is this discrepancy. Of course, the more down on the curve you go, the more you're going to theoretically flatten this out. The more the less you do, the higher your peak is going to be. But it's not that easy, I find. If you look at the cases here, of course, they're exponentially rising. But if you look at where the outbreak started in China, the orange curve here, you actually see the number of cases flattening out. Now, you see it flattening out at something like 100 K. And last I know China has more people than 100 K. So that means not everyone's infected. Now, with a disease that infects this easily and spreads this easily from person to person, as it appears to be the case, there are two possibilities. Either the rest of China, which China is over a billion people, and this is 100 K. So the entire rest of China, basically almost all of China is asymptomatic, which the latest numbers I hear are that maybe 50 percent of cases are asymptomatic. Or the other possibility is that most of China has yet to be infected. Now, with a virus like this, if you look at the distribution, it's basically arrived everywhere in the world. So there is very, very little hope of snuffing this thing out, actually making it stop, which what you'd have to do is you'd have to lock every single person down for two to three weeks. And now only a single person that doesn't keep to that can start a new outbreak. So what I fully expect to happen if these numbers are correct and if China actually has done this successfully, so flattened this curve successfully, is that let's say the green thing here is China, is that, okay, they get to a point where they feel they have no new cases for a while, so they let the restriction up, right, they remove the restriction. There's going to be some person somewhere in some CS department that now goes outside and meets another person. And in that particular person here, the virus happens to have an incubation period of 21 days instead of 14. And they're going to transmit that to two, three, four, five people. After these measures, everyone's going to be longing for social contacts and large groups. And we might gradually loosen the restrictions, but still a new outbreak is inevitable, it seems. So what you'll have again is a spike. And then a country might enact measures again and so on. But I believe the world we're going to live in, if we really lock down people, if we really enforce these measures, is a world of multiple repeated seasonal peaks of this disease. And that means we are in for the long term. I don't want to say ever that we shouldn't do that, because it of course effectively reduces the number of deaths, which should be our ultimate goal here. But just know that flattening the curve once, like these graphics here, is a bit misleading, I believe. We need to be thinking about a long term plan here. And since we're going long term, and with long term, I mean months, I mean multiple years, with long term, the problem here is the people. And I want to elaborate on that. So the largest problem are the people. People aren't just machines that you can command around. People are individuals. They have their own ideas. They have their own goals that they want to fulfill, right? At some point, you want to go on a vacation. This is an island with a tree. So let's talk about lockdown. Lockdown, it appears to be a thing that is necessary in some parts if you ask some people. Again, I don't want to give advice on this. I just want to give some thoughts. So what do you get with lockdown? With lockdown, you get OMG, it's happening, and so on. That's day one. Day three, you get funny YouTube videos. Everyone that is in lockdown will be like, oh, I'm stuck at home. It's so boring. Already forgetting that other people have major issues with being locked down. A lot of people sitting on top of each other is going to create a lot of problems. And eventually, more and more people are going to long for this to end. And I'm not saying that, you know, that response to a virus should be fun. But what I'm saying is that people are going to break this. It is inevitable. First some are going to break, then more. You have a very delicate balance going on here. Right now, there is a lot of support. A lot of people are on the side of locking things down in a lockdown. A lot of people are conscientious, staying home, avoiding social contact as much as possible. But some are going to be the first ones to go over there. Some are going to break. Some are going to find excuses not to keep to it. And the problem is, the harder the measures are, the harder you are down here. The stronger the pull is going to be for people to go on this other side. And I guarantee you, the people on social media that are shaming others the most, that are yelling out the loudest for others to not break the lockdown, either they have an extremely comfortable living at their own homes, which is an extreme privilege, or they are the worst ones to break it themselves, to find every excuse they can, why they are exempt from it. And people are going to see this. More and more people are going to be over here, and with more people over here. Look, they have the sunshine. They are out and about. They are doing their things more like normal. The people over here, they are going to see this. And more and more people will be, hey, why am I keeping to this? Why am I not over there? Why can these people do that? And they will go. And at some point, the scale is going to tip, and any lockdown, barring martial law and the threat of being shot, if you go outside, will be ineffective. And at that point, wherever you are, the cases are going to spike. And it will be even worse than when you did nothing, or as bad. So I believe that it is a very delicate balance that you have to strike here. Total lockdown, people aren't going to take this for a long time, and you need to think about a long time here. I don't know what the answer is. I don't know where exactly the scale of just keep apart, to stay home, whatever it takes, is. I just think that two harsh measures can also be counterproductive. I'm very fortunate to live in Switzerland. Most of our neighbors have instituted total lockdowns, and the Swiss government has recently decided not to do so at this time, with, I believe, much of the same reasoning as I'm just laying out. We need to think about this long term, and people are not going to keep to a lockdown long term, and it will be worse if they don't. Now, I believe the best response to something like this is a distributed one. I believe the best response is to go to people in their networks. People usually care about the people around them, enough so that they will take responsibility into the hand. I believe you should give the people the responsibility, as much responsibility as you can, and I believe the network of people, each one arranging themselves in the most pro-social way, can be the best response, better than any government could do. Governments can do things such as prohibit large gatherings. Sometimes, if you don't do that, even the individual people can't do anything against that. But to actually believe in your citizens, and believe in the fundamental goodness of humans, and the fundamental care for other humans, is a strong suit here. On the other hand, you see other governments. I have read that a city in Norway is thinking about employing a monitoring system, where they track everyone's phone, and if more than a certain amount of people are in the same place, they will basically send everyone a text message, saying you should disperse. While this is an effective measure, and I believe can definitely help, and it is something that you need to be very careful about. As we saw with 9-11, as soon as governments get power, they rarely let it go, as Edward Snowden finally demonstrated. If you enact something like this, you must definitely make sure that there is a time limit on it. Any government measure right now, be that spending to help the economy, which is certainly a good thing, be this measures to increase social distancing, to prohibit public gatherings. Support this, but it must be time limited. Otherwise, governments aren't going to let this go. Finally, I would like to come to a more global scale of long-term thinking, countries and other countries. As you go on, you need to think about your economy. Our economies were growing at a fairly good pace until this hit, and now they're plunging. At any point, they're going to be opportunists. They're going to be personal opportunists, hoarding toilet paper and hand sanitizer, and trying to sell them for marked-up prices. They're going to be country opportunists. When everything's falling down, if you're the country that locks things down now, your economy is going to fall. Eventually, though, you'll have to get back. Countries that get back sooner will be in an upswing sooner. Basically, the question is, where is the ideal point here? To leave the... To not react anymore, to let people do their thing, to get back on track. I don't know where that is, but I believe you're going to see a Cold War-like situation in the world where countries are going to accuse other countries of not doing enough or doing too much, of not playing fairly, of helping to spread the virus. And I believe that will be the case for the years to come. Because what happens over the long time? Of course, right now, you can afford to not fix that pipe under your house that's broken. You can afford to not clean the... To not get the person to clean the chimney. You can afford to not get dental work done. I don't even know how to draw a tooth. Let's say this is a tooth. It probably has some peaks here. Over the long term, though, all of these things are going to break. And we need to get back to normal. And the longer a state keeps up these measures, the worse it's going to get. Finally, we need to talk about risk people. People at risk tend to be older, tend to be ones with health issues. Think about this. If you're an old person having health issues, you're looking at long term. Once you realize this is not going to be over in a few weeks, what do you do? You're old. And the next year or so in lockdown mode is going to be hard for you. And for everyone. But a year, if you're that old and sick, is probably more quality life you have left than after it. So you need to be thinking either, I'm going to survive this because I bunker in my house, don't get the virus. But what is it worth? Because my other diseases will get me afterwards. Otherwise, I could be spending the quality time I have with my family, with my children, with my grandchildren. I could be spending it with my friends. And if I die, I die. It is not an easy question, but I'm absolutely sure there are people right now who are asking themselves this. If you're a government and you're thinking about mandatory lockdowns, I do see that this is in order to save people, in order to not have people walking around that spread the virus to vulnerable populations. But you need to be thinking about the people you're trying to help. Some of them would actually be on this side. I don't know what the best response is to everything here. I think we're just going to see and I don't want to give advice. This is just some of the things I think. I wish everyone the absolute healthiest season they can have right now. Take care. Please think about others. Please do not make the problem worse yourself. You're part of a network and you can be a powerful force for good during this time. Think about long-term, if you're asking your government to do things, think about what's the best situation and how we are going to get there. Thanks and stay healthy.
 This video is going to be a rant. There is not really a script and I have not really thought this through.
 But I would like to talk about some things that are on my mind and that I don't see discussed very often with respect to coronavirus.
 I'm not a medical expert. I don't play a doctor on the internet.
 And there absolutely is no need to follow any of my advice or take anything as advice that I say.
 I just want to talk and maybe someone else will have a good idea of what I talk.
 So it is a crazy world we live in.
 I would have never thought at the beginning of this year that this would be the year where everyone stays at their house and works from home.
 I've always thought that in a time like this, when the economy is going down, basically the thing of value would be something like Bitcoin or Ethereum or alternative things.
 But no, everything is going down and the actual new currency of choice is toilet paper.
 Everyone is going to grab the toilet paper.
 What a crazy world where the most trusted news source is someone like Tucker Carlson.
 Yeah, didn't see that one coming.
 Thanks, Tucker, for saving us.
 So I don't know what to make of this.
 And I do know that this is a serious situation.
 And you should definitely do everything you can to take care of yourself and to take care of your community.
 What I want to talk about is the question of what is it going to do long term?
 So if we think about this, we often think about this right now.
 We have an exponential increase in number of cases.
 You've probably seen this and you've probably seen graphics like these where the goal is to flatten the curve.
 The sense behind this being that if this rises exponentially, of course, at some point it will affect the entire population.
 So it's going to flatten out.
 And if you look at the number of new cases daily, it might be some curve like this.
 The problem is that we only have a finite capacity of health care systems.
 So all of these people are basically going to be screwed once we get to this point.
 Now, the goal is to flatten the curve, that we can take some measures to keep this curve under or at the capacity of our health care system.
 These measures are varying wildly.
 So it is these measures that I want to talk about a bit.
 Now, these measures range from something like social distancing, where you basically say, all right, no big events, no groups of large people, social distancing.
 And just kind of avoid contact with other people.
 Now, of course, all the CS departments of the world go like, well, this is business as usual.
 Like, yay, we've practiced for this our entire lives.
 So it is mildly inconvenient.
 But we can keep it up all the way to lockdown.
 Lockdown comes also in various forms.
 But the most drastic sense is stay home or you'll get shot or locked up or something like this.
 And it is this discrepancy.
 Of course, the more down on the curve you go, the more you're going to theoretically flatten this out.
 The more the less you do, the higher your peak is going to be.
 But it's not that easy, I find.
 If you look at the cases here, of course, they're exponentially rising.
 But if you look at where the outbreak started in China, the orange curve here, you actually see the number of cases flattening out.
 Now, you see it flattening out at something like 100 K.
 And last I know China has more people than 100 K.
 So that means not everyone's infected.
 Now, with a disease that infects this easily and spreads this easily from person to person, as it appears to be the case, there are two possibilities.
 Either the rest of China, which China is over a billion people, and this is 100 K.
 So the entire rest of China, basically almost all of China is asymptomatic, which the latest numbers I hear are that maybe 50 percent of cases are asymptomatic.
 Or the other possibility is that most of China has yet to be infected.
 Now, with a virus like this, if you look at the distribution, it's basically arrived everywhere in the world.
 So there is very, very little hope of snuffing this thing out, actually making it stop, which what you'd have to do is you'd have to lock every single person down for two to three weeks.
 And now only a single person that doesn't keep to that can start a new outbreak.
 So what I fully expect to happen if these numbers are correct and if China actually has done this successfully, so flattened this curve successfully, is that let's say the green thing here is China, is that, okay,
 they get to a point where they feel they have no new cases for a while, so they let the restriction up, right, they remove the restriction.
 There's going to be some person somewhere in some CS department that now goes outside and meets another person.
 And in that particular person here, the virus happens to have an incubation period of 21 days instead of 14.
 And they're going to transmit that to two, three, four, five people.
 After these measures, everyone's going to be longing for social contacts and large groups.
 And we might gradually loosen the restrictions, but still a new outbreak is inevitable, it seems.
 So what you'll have again is a spike.
 And then a country might enact measures again and so on.
 But I believe the world we're going to live in, if we really lock down people, if we really enforce these measures,
 is a world of multiple repeated seasonal peaks of this disease.
 And that means we are in for the long term.
 I don't want to say ever that we shouldn't do that, because it of course effectively reduces the number of deaths, which should be our ultimate goal here.
 But just know that flattening the curve once, like these graphics here, is a bit misleading, I believe.
 We need to be thinking about a long term plan here.
 And since we're going long term, and with long term, I mean months, I mean multiple years,
 with long term, the problem here is the people.
 And I want to elaborate on that.
 So the largest problem are the people.
 People aren't just machines that you can command around.
 People are individuals. They have their own ideas.
 They have their own goals that they want to fulfill, right?
 At some point, you want to go on a vacation.
 This is an island with a tree.
 So let's talk about lockdown.
 Lockdown, it appears to be a thing that is necessary in some parts if you ask some people.
 Again, I don't want to give advice on this.
 I just want to give some thoughts.
 So what do you get with lockdown?
 With lockdown, you get OMG, it's happening, and so on.
 That's day one.
 Day three, you get funny YouTube videos.
 Everyone that is in lockdown will be like, oh, I'm stuck at home.
 It's so boring.
 Already forgetting that other people have major issues with being locked down.
 A lot of people sitting on top of each other is going to create a lot of problems.
 And eventually, more and more people are going to long for this to end.
 And I'm not saying that, you know, that response to a virus should be fun.
 But what I'm saying is that people are going to break this.
 It is inevitable.
 First some are going to break, then more.
 You have a very delicate balance going on here.
 Right now, there is a lot of support.
 A lot of people are on the side of locking things down in a lockdown.
 A lot of people are conscientious, staying home, avoiding social contact as much as possible.
 But some are going to be the first ones to go over there.
 Some are going to break.
 Some are going to find excuses not to keep to it.
 And the problem is, the harder the measures are, the harder you are down here.
 The stronger the pull is going to be for people to go on this other side.
 And I guarantee you, the people on social media that are shaming others the most,
 that are yelling out the loudest for others to not break the lockdown,
 either they have an extremely comfortable living at their own homes,
 which is an extreme privilege,
 or they are the worst ones to break it themselves,
 to find every excuse they can, why they are exempt from it.
 And people are going to see this.
 More and more people are going to be over here, and with more people over here.
 Look, they have the sunshine.
 They are out and about.
 They are doing their things more like normal.
 The people over here, they are going to see this.
 And more and more people will be, hey, why am I keeping to this?
 Why am I not over there?
 Why can these people do that?
 And they will go.
 And at some point, the scale is going to tip,
 and any lockdown, barring martial law and the threat of being shot,
 if you go outside, will be ineffective.
 And at that point, wherever you are, the cases are going to spike.
 And it will be even worse than when you did nothing, or as bad.
 So I believe that it is a very delicate balance that you have to strike here.
 Total lockdown, people aren't going to take this for a long time,
 and you need to think about a long time here.
 I don't know what the answer is.
 I don't know where exactly the scale of just keep apart,
 to stay home, whatever it takes, is.
 I just think that two harsh measures can also be counterproductive.
 I'm very fortunate to live in Switzerland.
 Most of our neighbors have instituted total lockdowns,
 and the Swiss government has recently decided not to do so at this time,
 with, I believe, much of the same reasoning as I'm just laying out.
 We need to think about this long term,
 and people are not going to keep to a lockdown long term,
 and it will be worse if they don't.
 Now, I believe the best response to something like this is a distributed one.
 I believe the best response is to go to people in their networks.
 People usually care about the people around them,
 enough so that they will take responsibility into the hand.
 I believe you should give the people the responsibility,
 as much responsibility as you can,
 and I believe the network of people,
 each one arranging themselves in the most pro-social way,
 can be the best response, better than any government could do.
 Governments can do things such as prohibit large gatherings.
 Sometimes, if you don't do that,
 even the individual people can't do anything against that.
 But to actually believe in your citizens,
 and believe in the fundamental goodness of humans,
 and the fundamental care for other humans,
 is a strong suit here.
 On the other hand, you see other governments.
 I have read that a city in Norway
 is thinking about employing a monitoring system,
 where they track everyone's phone,
 and if more than a certain amount of people are in the same place,
 they will basically send everyone a text message,
 saying you should disperse.
 While this is an effective measure,
 and I believe can definitely help,
 and it is something that you need to be very careful about.
 As we saw with 9-11, as soon as governments get power,
 they rarely let it go, as Edward Snowden finally demonstrated.
 If you enact something like this,
 you must definitely make sure that there is a time limit on it.
 Any government measure right now,
 be that spending to help the economy, which is certainly a good thing,
 be this measures to increase social distancing,
 to prohibit public gatherings.
 Support this, but it must be time limited.
 Otherwise, governments aren't going to let this go.
 Finally, I would like to come to a more global scale
 of long-term thinking, countries and other countries.
 As you go on, you need to think about your economy.
 Our economies were growing at a fairly good pace until this hit,
 and now they're plunging.
 At any point, they're going to be opportunists.
 They're going to be personal opportunists,
 hoarding toilet paper and hand sanitizer,
 and trying to sell them for marked-up prices.
 They're going to be country opportunists.
 When everything's falling down,
 if you're the country that locks things down now,
 your economy is going to fall.
 Eventually, though, you'll have to get back.
 Countries that get back sooner will be in an upswing sooner.
 Basically, the question is, where is the ideal point here?
 To leave the...
 To not react anymore, to let people do their thing,
 to get back on track.
 I don't know where that is,
 but I believe you're going to see a Cold War-like situation in the world
 where countries are going to accuse other countries
 of not doing enough or doing too much,
 of not playing fairly, of helping to spread the virus.
 And I believe that will be the case for the years to come.
 Because what happens over the long time?
 Of course, right now, you can afford to not fix that pipe
 under your house that's broken.
 You can afford to not clean the...
 To not get the person to clean the chimney.
 You can afford to not get dental work done.
 I don't even know how to draw a tooth.
 Let's say this is a tooth.
 It probably has some peaks here.
 Over the long term, though, all of these things are going to break.
 And we need to get back to normal.
 And the longer a state keeps up these measures,
 the worse it's going to get.
 Finally, we need to talk about risk people.
 People at risk tend to be older, tend to be ones with health issues.
 Think about this.
 If you're an old person having health issues,
 you're looking at long term.
 Once you realize this is not going to be over in a few weeks,
 what do you do?
 You're old.
 And the next year or so in lockdown mode
 is going to be hard for you.
 And for everyone.
 But a year, if you're that old and sick,
 is probably more quality life you have left than after it.
 So you need to be thinking either,
 I'm going to survive this because I bunker in my house,
 don't get the virus.
 But what is it worth?
 Because my other diseases will get me afterwards.
 Otherwise, I could be spending the quality time I have
 with my family, with my children, with my grandchildren.
 I could be spending it with my friends.
 And if I die, I die.
 It is not an easy question,
 but I'm absolutely sure there are people right now
 who are asking themselves this.
 If you're a government and you're thinking about mandatory lockdowns,
 I do see that this is in order to save people,
 in order to not have people walking around that spread the virus
 to vulnerable populations.
 But you need to be thinking about the people you're trying to help.
 Some of them would actually be on this side.
 I don't know what the best response is to everything here.
 I think we're just going to see and I don't want to give advice.
 This is just some of the things I think.
 I wish everyone the absolute healthiest season they can have right now.
 Take care.
 Please think about others.
 Please do not make the problem worse yourself.
 You're part of a network and you can be a powerful force for good during this time.
 Think about long-term, if you're asking your government to do things,
 think about what's the best situation and how we are going to get there.
 Thanks and stay healthy.