Tornado Risk: Medium (Likely, but NOT an outbreak)
Severe Hail Risk: High (Very Likely)
Severe Wind Risk: Medium (Likely)
The greatest chance of severe weather for Thursday, April 12, 2012 concerns the states of Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Mid-level ridging over the central U.S. will begin break down and slide eastward tonight/Thursday morning. This, in turn, will set up height falls over the central and southern Plains. Strong, upper-level jet will also move eastward from the southwestern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will advect eastward from the Rocky Mountains by afternoon. This will set up a dryline that will extend from eastern CO through TX Big Bend by 18Z (1:00pm CDT). Storms should fire, around this time, along the dryline and warm sector. Surface dewpoints will range between 50F to 60F along the dryline. Energy Helicity Index values will be greatest in western OK and southeastern KS by early evening hours. Discrete cells that form have the potential to become dangerous and tornadic, especially along the dryline.