Seems right and their natl poll wrong. We will see if lead holds so far it has.
The national poll was fixed to fit a headline that Fox "News" chose so that it could play up a story that President Obama is headed to defeat. FoX News went from its usual, reliable pollster (Opinion Dynamics) to a new one.
I see Ohio as a disaster for Romney. The state is deep in the automotive business -- more than Indiana if much less than Michigan -- and saving two of the Big Three automakers is good enough to put Ohio almost securely in the Obama column. The incumbent Democratic Senator is extremely safe for a partisan Democrat in Ohio, and the Republican Governor is wildly unpopular.
Basically Mitt Romney will have to pick up a state with a large number of electoral votes (Pennsylvania?) to compensate for a loss of Ohio just to have a chance.