In 1914, the world was dominated by great and belligerent empires, including the British Empire, the Tsarist Russian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the powerful Prussian dynasty. The situation was unstable, so that triggering World War I was almost comically easy. At the end of World War I, of the five above, only the British Empire was left. And it was already on the way down.
… Russia is displaying some of the same attitude that led to World War I. That conflict triggered a series of wars and revolutions that killed over 120 million people and everyone thought it had finally ended in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But in Russia nostalgia for empire and leaders who believe they can bully and deceive their way to victory has led to policies that threatened to drag the country into an economic catastrophe.
… European nations are again facing Russian leaders who seem out of touch with reality. The Russian leadership is unwilling to halt its effort to annex part of eastern Ukraine via an ancient Russian technique of staging a rebellion and then trying to “help” by seizing the area in distress. Communists and Czars used this technique, as did many others. But Russia is no longer the scary Soviet empire but rather the wretched wreckage of that catastrophic colossus.
… Russian leaders are gambling, much like their czarist predecessors did in 1914, that things will somehow work out in their favor. Misplaced confidence and miscalculation is an ancient problem and not just in Russia. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does constantly paraphrase itself. At this point in time Russia does not need a paraphrase of its World War I experience. _StrategyPage
Russia is still experiencing toxic fallout from the Soviet disaster. The country is losing its ethnic Russian population — especially inside resource-rich Siberia. Its best and brightest are in a hurry to move abroad.
… according to United Nations estimates, Russia’s population is set to decline by up to 40 percent between now and 2050. But the effects on its economy could be devastating as it is the brightest and most creative – those with the greatest potential to generate wealth and economic growth – who appear most willing to leave. __Kremlin Stokes Brain Drain
Death rates are sky-high, and birth rates remain quite low. And Russia lacks the basic culture of trust and trade that would allow its economy to escape the chains of the resource curse.
And yet Russia’s leadership appears to be rushing into conflict, blind to the crumbling infrastructures beneath its feet.
President Vladimir Putin took aim at Ukraine, fearing the country was about to drop into Europe’s pocket. Suddenly, he was silent about obeying international law. His government then illegally annexed Crimea and is fighting an increasingly brutal guerrilla war in eastern Ukraine, through proxies and, it now appears, direct engagement of Russian forces.
In this context, the fate of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 is terrifying not only for its brutality, but also in its intimation of a world gone mad.
… The First World War ended four imperial regimes: the Prussian (Hohenzollern) dynasty, the Russian (Romanov) dynasty, the Turkish (Ottoman) dynasty and the Austro-Hungarian (Habsburg) dynasty. The war not only caused millions of deaths; it also left a legacy of revolution, state bankruptcy, protectionism and financial collapse that set the stage for Adolf Hitler’s rise, the Second World War and the Cold War. _ 2014 Looks Like 1914
Why is Russia unable to build a prosperous economy without a corrupt and top-heavy dependency upon resource belligerence?
China has been getting away with something [Russia] never accomplished; stealing Western technology, then using it to move ahead of the West. [Russia lacks] the many essential supporting industries found in the West (largely founded and run by entrepreneurs) and was never able to acquire all the many pieces needed to match Western technical accomplishments. [Russian]copies of American computers, for example, were crude, less reliable, and less powerful. It was the same situation with their jet fighters, tanks, and warships. __StrategyPage
Note: In the quote above, [Russia] is substituted for “the Soviet Union” to illustrate how little things have changed in Russia since the Soviet era.
Russian oil exports expected to decline. The main reason for this is the incredible waste and incompetence within the government-owned oil sector. Crucial upgrades to the Russian oil infrastructure are badly needed, but for those to happen, foreign capital and expertise must be attracted into the country. Putin’s bombastic words and actions are making Russia a very risky place for foreigners to do business.
Russia more vulnerable to foreign sanctions than Putin will admit, according to the Russian Economy Minister.
The deeper Putin dives into his grand neo-imperialist adventures, the worse Russia’s brain drain is likely to become. And it is already intolerably bad, over the long run.
The beginning of a long slide? Russian luxury sales falling, not expected to recover before 2017 at earliest
The Russian military is already dependent upon foreign suppliers for the necessary electronic components in its new generations of missiles, planes, ships, etc. The Russian economy lacks the competitive entrepreneurial underpinnings to supply reliable, high-quality modern parts and components. In other words, even the best of the Russian military is a Potemkin village, without a reliable supply chain.
At the same time, the numbers of healthy young men of ethnic Russian origins is steadily shrinking. Russia is increasingly being forced to rely upon Muslims of questionable loyalty for its ground combat strike forces — both Muslim militias and Muslim inductees. Coincidentally, Russia’s cities, birthing wards, and grammar schools are seeing a higher and higher proportion of alien newcomers.
Young Russian women of child-bearing years continue searching abroad for jobs and marriage partners — often ending up as strippers, escorts, and “massage” therapists, if not outright sex slaves, in their new countries. The lucky ones find something overseas that is rare in Russia — devoted husbands who wish to raise families in safe and affluent regions (of Europe and the Anglosphere).
Young Russian men of high aptitude and ambition look abroad for career opportunities. Children of the often-corrupt and criminal Russian upper class are sent abroad for education, just as billions in Russian capital is regularly secreted away in overseas banks.
The last two months has seen a raft of laws proposed which would severely restrict freedoms of assembly and expression, including a ban on the dissemination of any negative information about the government and Russia’s military as well as the introduction of lengthy jail sentences for minor offences related to unauthorised protests.
The Kremlin has also recently moved to have the websites of independent news outlets and political opposition groups blocked and bring the internet under its control with a set of draconian laws on web use. These came just days after the head of Russia‘s biggest social network, Pavel Durov, left the country after a clash with the state security services over handing over internet users’ data. __ Why Russia’s Best May Jump Ship
Russia is a public health disaster and a human capital disaster, with crumbling infrastructures almost everywhere one chooses to look. It is this rapid decay — a continuing fallout from Soviet years — which makes Putin’s counter-productive straining to create a new Russian Empire so tragic. Putin only makes everything worse, and not just in the long run.
If Putin’s 2014 is prelude to the same kind of fallout as was seen in the imperial world of 1914, you had best beware. All hell could easily break loose before your alarm clock rings tomorrow morning.
Of course, things are somewhat different now. The US is the clear global hegemon, as illustrated by an image of the world’s aircraft carriers:
It is true that the US has the weakest leadership since the days of President Carter. And the daily display of weakness-at-the-top by the current US government serves as encouragement to neo-imperialists abroad, no matter what relative advantage the US may have in military forces.
… anti-Western paranoia has been a Russian theme since the late 1990s and state controlled media (and hired Internet trolls) hammer away in support of it round the clock. Russia is now calling for more money to be spent on expanding the military, to counter the growing NATO threat. The Russian leadership portrays any real or imagined American moves as part of a plot to destroy Russia. All this still resonates in Russia, especially among older Russians. But the old, Soviet era, generation is dying out, and younger Russians consider this “NATO is the enemy” line as absurd. Russia has many real problems, like drugs, corruption and economic stagnation. Potential invasion by NATO is not a real problem, but the political leadership believes that talk of the “NATO threat” works with Russian voters. It does, but less and less. __ 2014 paraphrase of 1914?
There are many westerners who seem to place a deep hope in Putin’s Russia, despite the realities on the ground. Unfortunately, there are no good guys on the international stage — especially not Putin. Even so, gullible chumps ranging all the way from the far left to the far right continue placing their trust in Potemkin Poot.
This phenomenon is particularly ominous in Europe, where European leadership continues turning away from domestic energy development in favour of a deepening reliance on Russian energy imports.
We know that Europeans have developed a dependency culture since World War II, dependent upon the US for Europe’s defense (esp. from Russia) and increasingly dependent upon Russia for its energy, China for consumer goods, and Africa/Islam for its labour force. Dysfunctional? Precarious? Only if one looks too closely.
Interesting times tend to be unstable times, prone to chaotic change.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It’s not yet time to hunker down, but you had best make provisions just in case.
Update: Life on the eve of war