When you consider what our original winter outlook looked like, it gave you some simple details about what winter might look like. Well we have made some tweaks in the outlook to make it more accurate as we have gotten closer to winter and have seen the pattern some in the month of October. What we really will be looking at are the factor’s bellow.
- Strong East/Central El-Nino is in place
- Weather Pattern For The Month Of October
- NAO,AO,PNA patterns
- History of Strong El-Nino’s
During a strong El-Nino Typically it is warmer than average through much of the lower 48. And wetter than average along the gulf coast and east coast. However I do not believe that it will follow the same pattern as a typical strong el-nino. Consider as well that the El-Nino is on the verge of Starting to dissolve or dissipate. As it has reached its peak October/November and is projected to weaken. According to the computer models, the El-nino should weaken to around the 2009-2010 El-nino range by time this December-March arrives. The 2009-2010 El-Nino really maxed out at about +1.3-+1.5, and as you can see from the graphic to your left, the model puts us around that range by time we reach November/December/January/February. So while we have peaked at a massively strong el-nino, If you like snow the weakening of the El-nino soon to come really makes us look closer at the winter of 2009-2010 a little more closely.
The second aspect of this winter outlook that we must consider is that of the weather pattern that we see set up in the fall. As at times, we will see different patterns form that give indications to the patterns that we will be in as we head into the winter season. So we are going to look first at the temperature anomaly for the month of October. As we look at the temperatures for the month of October here is where there is a difference in the month of October of 2015 and the October of 2009. In the Country’s Mid-Section and even in the west we get to see that in 2009 the temperatures were all much bellow normal temperature wise. In fact that October ranked one of the Coldest On RECORD. While this one (October 2015) seems to appear as the West and Central US that it was one of the Warmer Octobers in recent years. While the east remained relatively cooler than average. And in actuality it was wetter than average in the east and drier than average in the mid-section. This is almost an exact contrast to what actually happened in 2009. However one of the things that did seem to remain the same was the pattern of the PNA.
Another aspect that we can look towards for this winter is the patterns that we have seen with low pressure systems so far this past month. The similarity comes when you look at where a couple of the coastal lows have gone. Instead of them coming straight up the coast, the heaviest of the rainfall primary stayed along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Emphasis could be put on that storm that came through the mid-Atlantic and northeast early this past October. That is earally similar to what happened in 2009-2010. Where storm systems exited off the coast of New Jersey and failed to send much moisture into the interior. (See image Bellow) Now part of the difference this October has been the fact that we have also seen to Appalachian cutters. Could that just be because it is currently Fall and still in transition? It is very possible. But yet To be Seen.
When you consider these facts I invite you to consider one more, The pattern of the AO,NAO and the PNA. There is a very interesting article that came out in the month of August that mentioned that typically years with a strong negative AO in the month of July usually have colder than average winters. One of the Analogs that they used was the winter of 2009-2010. Interesting isn’t it? (Click here to read the full article) So if you are a snow and cold lover you have that in your favor as well. When you consider the PNA for the Month of October it was positive for the majority of the month? On average what happens when the PNA is positive in October on an El-Nino year? Well looking at the image to your left really tells what typically happens, however the twist is that October was well above average temperature wise except along the east coast. However if this formula were to stay in place that my indicate a colder winter in the eastern half and southeastern sections of the united states really starting from January on.
So considering all of this and what also typically happens during an El-Nino year I have tweaked the winter outlook just a little bit. We go with the motion that the effects of the strong el-nino in place will at least start with an effect on winter and that the pattern will persist that we have seen over the past couple of months for at least the first half of the upcoming winter. So while it will get cold in the east and northeast, it will take some time. For the time being you may see warmer than average temperatures overall in areas of the mid-Atlantic. However the second half of winter, especially January and February may have winter return with a vengeance. Still for the big cities I believe this winter will be one remembered a little more for more rain than snow. NOT because of a bad storm track, but more-so because a lack of Cold air available until maybe the second half of winter. For right now we will go with average snowfall for the big cities and slightly above average snowfall for the mountains and areas of Texas/Oklahoma. However my confidence level is fairly low as it pertains to that section outlook. The Part I am fairly confident in is where I expect it to be drier than average overall, as a result bellow average snowfall. Any questions comments concerns about this upcoming winter? Feel free to ask them in the bellow comments section. The final Outlook will be out DECEMBER 5TH 2015.