Will the Grammys do a Susan Lucci on Eminem? The snarly rapper has a shot at album of the year tonight at the 45th Grammy Awards. The Eminem Show earned raves and outsold every other release of 2002, and Grammy voters have rewarded commercial-critical momentum in the cases of Carlos Santana and Lauryn Hill. But Eminem rode the same wave into the 2000 Grammys with The Marshall Mathers LP and, surprise, best album went to a couple of rock Van Winkles: brainy duo Steely Dan for its first output in 20 years.
Lucci, of course, is the soap opera star nominated best actress at the Daytime Emmys 18 times. She won on the 19th try. At that rate, Eminem would have to be as old as Steely Dan's members and still making records to qualify. It is hard to picture him in middle age, rapping with the same fervor. But that's what they used to say about rock stars. Let the vigil begin. Meantime, here's the forecast for tonight's probable winners.
Album of the year: The Eminem Show will either win it, or lose out to yet another classic-rock comeback: The Rising by Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band, the group's first album in 18 years and the kind of ringing, post-9/11 statement that Grammy voters can embrace. The atmosphere favors Springsteen: a respected East Coast rock veteran at a show taking place in New York City; a convergence of Big Apple sentiment all around. Eminem is from Detroit, and his music rarely has anything noble to say about adversity and the human condition. Go with him over Springsteen, anyway. Grammy voters will finally acknowledge the angry young rapper as the icon of the times. Nelly's Nellyville, the Dixie Chicks' Home and Norah Jones' Come Away With Me are worthy nominees, but on hand in this case to fill out the card.
Record of the year: This award to an artist and a production team usually goes to a ubiquitous single. Most of this year's nominees arrive still glowing from radio activity, in particular A Thousand Miles by Vanessa Carlton, Without Me by Eminem, Dilemma by Nelly featuring Kelly Rowland and How You Remind Me by Nickelback. Jones' smoky Don't Know Why is comparatively obscure and therefore has no chance. Dilemma was not the defining Nelly track of 2002. Carlton's snuggly single becomes more grating over time. And Nickelback will have to prove it's not a one-hit wonder before it ever wins anything. That makes Eminem two for two. He'll also collect his third rap album award in three tries.
Song of the year: Springsteen gets the songwriting award for the title track of his nominated album. The other 9/11-themed contender, Alan Jackson's Where Were You (When the World Stopped Turning), is not as sharp, musically, but should win country song. The rest of the field is just not as topical. The Rising also figures to win male rock vocal performance over a quartet of British geezers: David Bowie, Elvis Costello, Peter Gabriel and Robert Plant.
Best new artist: Jones, an instant Grammy favorite whose made-for-grownups debut album attracted eight nominations in all, will best a trio of teen-leaning rookies -- Ashanti, Michelle Branch and Avril Lavigne -- as well as the collegiate John Mayer. Look for Jones to also capture pop vocal album and female pop vocal performance, the latter for the single Don't Know Why.
Top of the pops: British r&b crooner Craig David deserves to win male pop vocal performance for his wily 7 Days, but voters will decide Elton John needs some love for his excellent album, Songs from the West Coast, and pick the Sir Elton single, Original Sin. Pop performance by a duo or group with vocal -- a mouthful -- goes to No Doubt's Hey Baby over entries from Bon Jovi, Dave Matthews, 'N Sync and Bowling for Soup. Pop collaboration with vocals, in which separate careers converge, feels like a showdown between The Game of Love by Santana and Michelle Branch and What a Wonderful World by Tony Bennett and k.d. lang, with Santana-Branch prevailing because Grammy voters vaguely remember the two sang live at the Super Bowl. Traditional pop vocal album includes one improbable entry: Rod Stewart's foray into dinner-jacket music, It Had to Be You ... The Great American Songbook. But count on Ol' Gristlethroat to win ahead of more credible interpreters -- Bennett, Michael Feinstein, Bernadette Peters and Barbra Streisand. Stewart, see, now has record mogul Clive Davis as patron, and Davis was the guy behind last year's Grammy magnet, soul starlet Alicia Keys. He seems to know how to lobby for his clients -- anyone remember Milli Vanilli?