Scott Pruitt, the EPA Administrator we have all reviled for his unethical conduct and for rolling back environmental protections, has finally resigned. We know someone with his kind of ethical lapses would not have lasted so long in a Democratic administration (and in fairness, in most Republican administrations as well). Of course, he may be replaced by someone equally bad for the environment, but it is hard to imagine any replacement being so lacking in personal probity.
Big Trouble at the Supreme Court
The focus at the Federal level has now shifted to the Supreme Court, where the news that Justice Kennedy (a swing vote in favor of abortion rights) is stepping down, gave Donald Trump a second High Court pick. He has nominated Brett Kavanaugh, Yale-trained and tagged as an originalist judge in the mold of Anton Scalia, i.e. one who looks to original meaning in the Constitution. Kavanaugh has an impeccable conservative record including working with Independent Prosecutor Kenneth Starr during the Bill Clinton witch hunt.
With Republican control of the Senate hanging by a narrow margin, a lot of attention is falling on two Republican Senators who support Roe v. Wade, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. However, both Senators voted to confirm Judge Cavanaugh to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals back in 2006. Many prominent Democratic Senators, including both California Senators, have already lined up in opposition, and we can expect a heated confirmation process. We saw that the Democratic opposition was unable to block Justice Gorsuch’s appointment, and three Democrats voted in favor of his appointment. But all will recognize that the appointment of a second conservative pick is likely to result in a rightward shift of the court for many years. That is different than Justice Gorsuch simply replacing Justice Scalia and may rachet up the intensity of the confirmation hearing.
Trump's Trade Policy ... or Lack Thereof
Administration trade policy is continuing to confuse and cause unintended consequences. Steel tariffs caused Mid-Continent Nail, the largest U.S. producer of nails, to lay off workers, and consider closing or moving to Mexico after its orders dropped 50% when the company tried to pass on its higher steel costs.
Harley-Davidson invested in India back in 2011 to be able to break into that country's tariff-protected market. It is now opening a plant in Thailand to supply southeast Asia as well as its growing China market. Forty percent of Harley’s sales are international, and the European retaliatory tariffs of 31% would raise the price of its motorcycles by $2,200 per bike, so it plans to shift production abroad over the coming months to avoid $90-100 million per year in European tariffs.
You will remember that solar panels became the subject of tariffs last winter. Lest you think that analysis of this kind of policy is simple, China’s largest producer of solar panels, Jinko has not used Chinese-produced solar cells in the U.S. market for some time. It uses Malaysian cells, which are taxed at 30%, rather than cells from China which would be taxed at a cumulative 85% tariff. Jinko is opening a plant in Florida using the Malaysian cells to meet U.S. market needs.
The US Chamber of Commerce has estimated that 2.6 million jobs are at risk because of Administration trade policies including the impact of ending NAFTA. According to Moody’s Analytics, 700,000 jobs could be lost over the next year as a result of tariffs already proposed.
The Latest on Immigration
Immigration has moved to center stage over the last month, with the dismal spectacle of our government acting to separate children from their parents, and the President and his Administration blithely positing that due process is not needed for unauthorized immigrants despite more than a century of Supreme Court rulings. Sorry Mr. President, “Aliens, even aliens whose presence in this country is unlawful, have long been recognized as ‘persons’ guaranteed due process of law by the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments,” said the Court in 1982.
In the wrangling over California’s stance on immigration, Eastern District Court of California Judge John Mendez, who was appointed by George W. Bush, upheld SB 54’s constitutionality against Attorney General Sessions’ and the DOJ’s first round of challenge, which means that California police and sheriffs will be able to continue limiting cooperation with immigration enforcement. In handing down his verdict, Judge Mendez joined a growing chorus of Americans in urging Congress to find a long-term solution to federal immigration policy, “to set aside partisan and polarizing politics dominating the current immigration debate and work in a cooperative and bipartisan fashion toward drafting and passing legislation that addresses this critical political issue.” “Our Nation deserves it”…”Our Constitution demands it,” he wrote.
The Trump immigration election agenda is certain to be an issue in the November elections in California. According to a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted in May (even before the current focus on immigration), 19% of the California’s likely voters identified immigration as a top concern vs 15% who mentioned jobs. A year ago, jobs topped the polls. This could be an important factor in races such as the 10th District (R Jeff Denham) or our nearby 25th District (R Steve Knight) where the issue is likely to boost Democratic turnout, and where Latinos make up around 25% of voters.
Closer to Home
Locally, candidates are beginning to make the rounds, and the filing period for non-partisan races in our district will be underway from July 16 – August 12. The Democratic Club of Ventura has organized what looks to be a great “Keep It Blue” brunch on Sunday, July 22, at the Pierpont Inn, It will be emceed by California Democratic Party Chair Eric Bauman, and feature, among others, representatives Julia Brownley and Salud Carbajal, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kevin de Leon.
We will be staffing our booth at the Camarillo Fiesta July 17 - 18, and at Ventura County Fair, on August 8. We need volunteers, so please sign up with Jim Paulson for the Fiesta and contact me if you are willing to take a stint at the County Fair on August 8.
Our meeting this month will be on Thursday, July 12. Our featured speaker will be CSU Channel Islands (Osher Lifelong Learning Institute) lecturer B J Fan, who will be speaking about renewable energy and environmental policy in China, and may make a few interesting observations about American policy by way of contrast. I look forward to seeing you there.