Yesterday, Soybeans move up again, +7.00 cents, on South American weather concerns. The amount of short is pretty huge in the market so there’s no need for a huge catalyst (justified or not) to trigger a bit of short covering. Anyway, any cut on the productions could be compensated by lowering US exports considering how ugly they are… Corn suffered from lack of interest and moved down a couple of ticks. Wheat was ranging, nothing captivating, ended up +3.00 cents in Chicago. +1.00 cent in Kansas and -1.50 cent in Minneapolis. On the other side of the Pond, quiet start of the week, MAIF closed a couple of ticks up and London Feed down -£0.95. In Chicago, funds bought 7,000 Soybeans and 2,000 Wheat and sold 5,000 Corn.
Night session is quiet, up +1.25 cent on Soybeans, 0.75 cent on Corn and -2.00 cents on Wheat in Chicago, -1.00 cent in Kansas and a just a tick up in Minneapolis. EU markets are expected flat so far, but it is still early.
US export inspections were low again on wheat, 338.0kT, totalizing 15.47MT this year, down -6.13% from last year. Ok, one could argue that we are in line with the -7.59% cut of exports expected for the full year. Also, last year at this stage, 57% of the target was completed, it’s now 58%. So hopes are genuinely permitted on that basis. However, the second part of the season is not the paciest usually, and on average, 62% of the shipments are completed. Corn shipments were greater than last week for sure with 668.9kT but it was still lower than expected and hoped, a post-holiday rebound was expected. With 12.69MT so far this season, it is down -36.01% from last year, full year exports are expected down only -16.04%… USDA did not change he exports on the WASDE after bumping them up twice… It is difficult to see how there won’t be a huge miss here, with 26% of the target completed it is far behind last year (34%) and far behind the average (33%). If it was to catch up, this would be a year to remember for sure! Soybeans shipments also picked up, with 1,419.4kT, just above expectations, this is a cumulated 32.27MT so far this season, -13.23% from last year (only -0.63% are expected year on year, after the latest WASDE adjustment), so a very strong second part of the season is needed here also as the seasonality is behind schedule: 55% of the target is completed, it was 63% last year, it is 58% on average. So taken one by one hope is permitted, but the issue is the three of them won’t be able to be outstanding at the same time. There will be for sure some damage!
China sold 596,594T of its ageing imported wheat reserve, a quite successful auction to be fair as it represents 28.9% of the full amount offered.
Shutdown is over in the US, this should not have a significant impact, it lasted just 3 days, including a full week end. A bit of a relief for the US dollar, trading lower this morning: EURUSD is down around 1.2235, GBPUSD is trading down around 1.3950 and GBPEUR just above 1.14 thanks to the yesterday’s technical rebound. German ZEW Economic Sentiment expected later today at 17.8.