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04-01-2013 07:34 AM
Just thinking this morning who really knows the stocks number. Does USDA have a data base of elevators that they survey??
I would guess merchandizers from large firms like ADM, Cargill etc should have a good handle on stocks out there or aren't they telling.
Ray Jenkins or AD from Indiana (whatever happended to him) might like to weigh in.
Why not push local basis harder instead of trying to rail corn from the Dakotas to Illinois
What was ending stocks number on March 31, 1996
Well the market will trade the report regardless , doubt the move would have been this severe it the funds had not been loaded to the gills on the long side (obvious conclusion)
Should see some unprecendented regional basis moves this summer. Rail corn from Canada or Dakotas to the southeast ??
04-01-2013 08:11 AM
stocks in Mar '96 were couple bil lower Cat, but pre-ETOH.
world stocks/use was certainly NOT as tight then............and you see price compared to Mar 2011 on floortalk.................
04-01-2013 08:33 AM - edited 04-01-2013 08:42 AM
425CAT- The ending stocks calculation is a simple calculation. Every licensed grain warehouse (elevator) . . . ADM to the smallest grain elevator operating in the US are required to file an ending monthly inventory with the State Grain Warehouse Divisions on the last day of the month and periodically with the Federal Grain Warehouse Licensing Division.
The accurate inventories in elevators are recorded when purchased and when sold by these entities so these numbers are always available. The only variable involved are shrink and pack factors which has to considered and ususally entered on the books when annual independent financial statements are issued by a CPA, or when the annual inspection team from the State appears on the door step to check the books and make adjustments.
The only remaining variable is what grain farmers are holding in on farm storage and if those bushels have a CCC loan on them then they even know what those bushels behind the CCC loans on hand.
So the information is reliable and available to calculate these ending inventories it is just that the Drone employees at USDA have forgotten how to work to publish "real numbers" so that producers know what is really in the "National Grain Bin".
At the worst they should only be one month behind, so the worst they oould be is as with this report is about 29 days of inventory addition or reduction off. What we have now is the Old Soviet Union System of maintaining inventory. They wait for the call from the Leader to get the final number before publishing a report. These reports are now a political tool, to churn grain markets in the direction most generous to the political power in office. In short . . . they are a Comic Book.
As one Ag-Commie suggested it is now time we and Shemp to the three stooges who prepare this comic book. I really do enjoy listening to those posters defend the accuracy of the numbrers published by this Criminal Enterprise. Adios Amigo's. John
04-01-2013 08:42 AM - edited 04-01-2013 08:42 AM
thank you Faust,
so actual is probably 700-1000 mil bu less stocks--------assuming rightfully that quantity wasn't ADDED over last month--------------valuable info.
04-01-2013 11:48 AM
You know, the interesting thing is, according to what everyone agrees with, the exports are pretty easy to figure. The commercial use is pretty easy to figure.
What is not easy to figure is feed usage (although one can make some good guess) and farmer holdings.
As was pointed out, back when everyone LDP'd the corn, the government knew how much was on the farm. Now we don't LDP so we don't tell the government.
We build bins on the farm so the government can't ask the elevator.
And, farmers lie or ignore the census and other government polls, so why is anyone surprised that the government doesn't know how much grain is on the farm? Who tells them? Not you. Not me. Not anyone - at least not the truth.
Even if we did tell the truth as we see it about on farm storagge, I remember when Prof Bob Wisner was talking about the difficullty of the Chinese gtovernment estimating stocks. he said if every farmer was off by one bushel, the difference would be nearly a billion bushels. We don't have that many farmers but I bet we aren't much better at guestimating our holdings.
We have met the enemy and he is us.
04-01-2013 09:23 PM
I can agree with you on most points, but on the recovery of such a low yield drought year how could anyone assume that farmers are holding anything they can't. Any farmer I talk to dumped everything when harvest prices hit highes. There is no reason they should assume anything with this much control over the global market.