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## Archive for Marine Le Pen
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[11 million French voters voted for the far-right candidate](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/11-million-french-voters-voted-for-the-far-right-candidate/) [Books](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/books/), [Kids](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/kids/), [pictures](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/pictures/), [Travel](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/travel/), [University life](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/university-life/)with tags [Dublin](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/dublin/), [falsehood flies and truth comes limping after it](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/falsehood-flies-and-truth-comes-limping-after-it/), [French elections](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/french-elections/), [Marine Le Pen](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/marine-le-pen/), [Trinity College Dublin](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/trinity-college-dublin/)on May 8, 2017 by xi'an
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[God save the Queen, the fascist Marine [hopefully the last quotes!]](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/06/god-save-the-queen-the-fascist-marine-4/) [Kids](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/kids/)with tags [anti-fascism](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/anti-fascism/), [extreme-right](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/extreme-right/), [French elections](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/french-elections/), [Front National](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/front-national/), [Marine Le Pen](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/marine-le-pen/), [negationism](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/negationism/), [revisionism](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/revisionism/), [run-off](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/run-off/), [Russia](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/russia/)on May 6, 2017 by xi'an *«I want to destroy the EU, not Europe! The EU is deeply harmful, it is an anti-democratic monster. I want to prevent it from becoming fatter, from continuing to breathe, from grabbing everything with its paws and from extending its tentacles into all areas of our legislation.»* * M. Le Pen, 3 June 2014
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« …the European flag, the one I will banish from official buildings.» M. Le Pen, 18 April 2017
«The issue of[the existence of] gas chambers[in Nazi concentration camps] , I think we should be allowed to also discuss this issue.» Jean-François Jalkh[temporary president of Front National] April 2000
«But you think that there is real freedom of the press in France[when compared with Putin’s Russia] ? Ninety-nine percent of the journalists are leftists!.» M. Le Pen, 3 June 2014
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[non, toujours non](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/03/non-toujours-non/) [Kids](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/kids/), [pictures](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/pictures/)with tags [extreme-right](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/extreme-right/), [French elections](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/french-elections/), [Front National](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/front-national/), [Liberation](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/liberation/), [Marine Le Pen](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/marine-le-pen/)on May 3, 2017 by xi'an
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[ne rien lâcher](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/25/ne-rien-lacher/) [Statistics](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/statistics/)with tags [2017](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/2017/), [Emmanuel Macron](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/emmanuel-macron/), [French elections](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/french-elections/), [Liberation](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/liberation/), [Marine Le Pen](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/marine-le-pen/)on April 25, 2017 by xi'an
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[today, 7.7 millions French voters voted for a xenophobic, populist, leader of an extreme-right party](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/24/7-7-millions-french-voters-voted-for-a-xenophobic-populist-leader-of-an-extreme-right-party/) [Kids](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/kids/), [pictures](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/pictures/)with tags [French elections](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/french-elections/), [Marine Le Pen](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/marine-le-pen/), [no pasaran](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/no-pasaran/)on April 24, 2017 by xi'an
Posted in
[“In short, the French presidential election is a mess”](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/23/in-short-the-french-presidential-election-is-a-mess/) [Statistics](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/category/statistics/)with tags [FiveThirtyEight](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/fivethirtyeight/), [France](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/france/), [French elections](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/french-elections/), [Le Monde](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/le-monde/), [Marine Le Pen](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/marine-le-pen/), [Nate Silver](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/nate-silver/), [polls](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/tag/polls/)on April 23, 2017 by xi'an **H**arry Enten (and not [Nate Silver](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2013/02/27/the-signal-and-the-noise-2/) as reported by [Le Monde](http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/04/21/les-sondages-de-l-election-presidentielle-se-copient-ils-entre-eux_5115335_4355770.html?xtmc=nate_silver&xtcr=1)) published yesterday a post on [Five-Thirty-Eight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/) about the unpredictability of the French elections. Which essentially states the obvious, namely that the four major candidates all stand a chance to make it to the runoff. (The post classifies Macron as a former left-wing socialist, which shows a glaring misunderstanding of the candidate or a massive divergence of what left-wing means between France and the USA.) The tribune states both that the polls could exhibit a bigger mistake than in the previous elections and that [Le Pen](https://xianblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/19/nobel-prizes-against-le-pen/) score is unlikely to be underestimated, because voters are no longer shy to acknowledge they vote for a fascist candidate. One argument for the error in the polls is attributed to pollsters “ [herding](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/)” their results, i.e., shrinking the raw figures towards the global average taken over previous polls. A [rather reasonable] correction dismissed by [Le Monde](http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/04/21/les-sondages-de-l-election-presidentielle-se-copient-ils-entre-eux_5115335_4355770.html?xtmc=nate_silver&xtcr=1) and French pollsters. While Enten argues that the variability of the percentages over fifty polls is too small to be plausible, assuming a Normal distribution that may not hold because French pollsters use quotas to build their polling population. In any case, this analysis, while cautious and reasonably so!, does not elaborate on the largest question mark, the elephant in the room, namely the percentage of abstentions today and their distribution among the political spectrum, which may eventually make the difference tonight. Indeed, [“the bottom line is that we don’t know what’s going to happen on Sunday.”](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/) And it is definitely frightening!

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