Talk about your fake news.
Based on three decades of real-world experience, whenever a Canadian government pledges to lower industrial greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change, skepticism is called for.
If for no other reason than the best indicator of future performance by any federal government — Liberal or Conservative — is past practice.
Today, let’s review the history of three decades of those promises and what actually happened after they were made.
In 1988, the Brian Mulroney Conservative government, followed in 1993 by the Jean Chretien Liberal government, promised to reduce Canada’s emissions to 20% below 1988 levels by 2005.
According to federal documents, Canada’s emission level in 1988 was estimated at 588 megatonnes of industrial greenhouse gases (a megatonne, or Mt, is one million tonnes).
Twenty per cent below that would have been 470 Mt of annual emissions by 2005.
Canada’s actual emissions in 2005 were 738 Mt, 57% above the Mulroney and Chretien commitments.
Undeterred by this failure, Chretien, in 1997, under the United Nations’ Kyoto accord, promised to reduce Canada’s annual emissions to a less ambitious average of 6% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.
This even though, as top Chretien aide Eddie Goldenberg acknowledged a decade later, the Liberals knew it was unlikely they would ever reach that target. Goldenberg was right.
Canada’s emissions in 1990 were estimated at 611 Mt. Six per cent below that by 2012 would have been 574 Mt.
Canada’s actual emissions in 2012 were 716 Mt or 25% above Chretien’s 1997 commitment.
Lest someone argue it’s unfair to judge the Chretien (and Paul Martin) government for failing to reach its 2012 target, since the Liberals lost power to Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in 2006, let’s look at where Canada’s emissions stood in 2006.
In that year, Canada’s estimated emissions were 729 Mt, or 27% above Chretien’s 2012 target. So much for unfairness.
In 2015, the Harper government, followed by the Justin Trudeau government in 2016, announced a less ambitious target than Kyoto, 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 and 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Canada’s emissions in 2005 were 738 Mt.
Seventeen per cent below that would be 613 Mt by 2020, while 30% would be 517 Mt by 2030.
When Harper’s government lost power in 2015, Canada’s annual emissions were 722 Mt or 18% above Harper’s 2020 target and 40% above his 2030 target.
Since the Trudeau government adopted the Harper government’s targets in 2016, it’s now 18% above its 2020 target and 40% above its 2030 target.
Meeting Trudeau’s 2020 target would mean reducing Canada’s emissions by 109 Mt annually, the equivalent of shutting down Canada’s entire electricity sector (79 Mt of annual emissions) plus 41% of the agriculture sector (73 Mt of annual emissions), in less than four years.
To reach its 2030 target, the Trudeau government would have to reduce current emissions by 205 Mt annually, the equivalent of shutting down Canada’s entire transportation sector (173 Mt of annual emissions) plus 66% of the waste disposal sector (48 Mt of annual emissions), in less than 14 years.
Simply put, none of this is going to happen.
The federal and provincial carbon pricing plans now being imposed on Canadians aren’t going to get us there because their primary purpose is to increase government revenues, not lower emissions. In other words, they’re cash grabs.