As the population of white voters without college degrees continues to decline, these charts show how demographics are not on President Trump’s side in this election.
in (or have newly aligned with) the Democratic Party are far more likely to be college educated than in the past. At the same time that non-college whites' attachment to the GOP has grown, there has been a shift in the political allegiance of whites with college degrees toward the Democratic Party. White voters without degrees, a core Trump base group, are heavily in Trump’s favor and their margin is unchanged. But by the 1980s, a college-educated white was, on average, only 7.1 points more likely to be a Republican. In 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees; now 59% are. The cohort of non-college-educated white voters  — who gave Mr. Trump just enough of a margin to — has been in a long-term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased. This gap largely reflects an educational divide among White voters: 54% of White voters with at least a four-year college degree say they would vote | margins in 2018 (52% to 42%) and 2019 (54% to 41%). Although non-college-educated whites and nonwhites still constituted the majority (66%) of self-identified Democrats as recently as 2016, the former demographic has steadily declined while the share of college-educated whites has steadily risen—particularly since 2008. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). Minority voters White voters with college degrees White voters with no college degrees And compared with Mr. Trump’s tiny 2016 margins in some of these states, the demographic changes since then are a tsunami, especially in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. But at the same time, the whites who have remained in (or have newly aligned with) the Democratic Party are far more likely to be college educated than in the past. At the same time that non-college whites' attachment to the GOP has grown, there | is a white man like all the others who rose to become president. Nobody, however, can doubt that white working-class voters, defined simply as white voters without a college degree, are a key to Trump’s past, present, and pending electoral fortunes. Advertisement     A potential victory for Donald J. Trump may hinge on one important (and large) group of Americans: whites who did not attend college. Over at the Washington Post, researchers Matthew Fowler, Vladimir Medenica, and Cathy Cohen have , with a focus on the 41 percent of white millennials who voted for Trump and the sense of “white vulnerability” that motivated them. Indeed, there is a kind of theater at work in which Trump’s presidency is pawned off as a product of the white working class as opposed to a product of an entire whiteness that includes the very authors doing the pawning. Trump’s dominance among whites across class lines is of a piece with his larger dominance across nearly every white demographic. We found, as he | described as . Among whites who have not graduated from college, more hold a favorable (52%) than unfavorable (43%) view of Trump. Throughout the campaign, majorities said they thought Trump would be either a poor or terrible president, including 57% who said this in late October. In October, nearly nine-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners (89%) said they thought Trump would make a poor or terrible president. About three-in-ten (31%) are at least somewhat concerned that Trump’s relationships conflict with his ability to serve. These Trump voters lean economically progressive, believe the economic and political systems are rigged, have nativist immigration views, and a nativist and ethnocultural conception of American identity. Elections observers have sought a straightforward explanation for Trump’s success, such as Rust-Belt anxieties, the plight of the white working class, racism, nativism, nationalism, authoritarianism, collective narcissism, Americanism, and so forth. Several | As a result of these trends, the proportion of the Republican Party consisting of whites with college degrees versus those without has changed. Still, the 25-percentage-point edge in non-college whites' preferences for the Republican Party (59%) over the Democratic Party (34%) thus far in 2019 is the largest in the past two decades, and is up from a 20-point gap in 2014. These diverging within-party and between-party trends finally came to a head in 2020 when, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of self-identified Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). Since the 2016 presidential election year, white college graduates have gone from being evenly divided in their political preferences to preferring the Democratic Party by double-digit margins in 2018 (52% to 42%) and 2019 (54% to 41%). Although non-college-educated whites and nonwhites still constituted the majority (66%) of self-identified Democrats as recently as 2016, the | already polls show that mr trump is winning white voters without a college degree by more than mitt romney did four years ago over all hes faring about as well among white registered voters as mr romney did despite mr trumps weakness with well educated white voters
it may not be enough for mr trump indeed he trails in the same polls that show him overperforming among white voters but the brexit vote and european electoral trends more generally is a reminder that theres a lot of room for democrats to fall among white working class voters
As the population of white voters without college degrees continues to decline, these charts show how demographics are not on President Trump’s side in this election.
Comments
The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base
ByFord FessendenandLazaro GamioOct. 22, 2020
A steady decline in white voters without college degrees, 1976-2018
In 2016, Donald J. Trump confounded the polls in part by generating an unanticipated level ofenthusiasm and turnoutfrom a group that had grown increasingly apathetic about elections: white voters without college degrees.
But in 2020,Mr. TrumpandJoseph R. Biden Jr.face a drastically changed electorate. The cohort of non-college-educated white voters  — who gave Mr. Trump just enough of a margin towin the election in 2016— has been in a long-term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased.
The decline, a demographic glacier driven largely by aging, has continued since 2016. The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than five million in the past four years, while the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has collectively increased by more than 13 million in the same period. In key swing states, the changes far outstrip Mr. Trump’s narrow 2016 margins.
Hiscampaign leadersare bettingthat a two-year grass-roots mobilization that has yielded significant voter registration gains will overcome the demographic disadvantage and the polls, again.
“As a clear show of support for the president’s policies, Americans are registering as Republican with a Republican president in office,” said Samantha Zager, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign. “And those significant voter registration gains prove President Trump is expanding his base and will win four more years in the White House as a result.”
Certainly, these white non-college-educated voters continue to show enthusiasm for Mr. Trump and Republicans — not just inapproval pollsthat have been remarkably stable for four years, but also at the ballot box in 2018.
Two years ago, even without the president on the ballot, white voters without college degrees turned out in numbers not seen in a midterm election in decades.
Share of eligible voters who cast ballots in midterm elections
White voters withoutcollege degrees
White voters withcollege degrees
Minorityvoters
The president has shown little interest in expanding his appeal beyond that base, and his campaign has been working on a strategy of finding more such voters.
“For his entire term, Trump has made very few attempts to reach out and broaden his coalition,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “He has been trying to expand the Trump base that casts ballots, and they could substitute for the diminishing group of blue-collar whites.”
In some key states including Pennsylvania and Florida, new Republican voter registrations have outnumbered new Democratic ones.
“The combination of the president’s personality and style combined with the demographic challenges leaves very little margin for error,” said Ken Spain, a Republican strategist. “Increasing registration while juicing turnout is his only play at this stage. It would mean defying the polls again.”
But Mr. Trump has appeared to generate a countervailing enthusiasm among both educated white voters and minority voters. The turnout of both groups spiked in 2018 as well.
The result was the 2018 blue wave in which theDemocrats took overthe House of Representatives.
“You had a heroic performance in these declining groups in 2016,” said Ruy Teixeira, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, referring to the Trump base.
In 2018, other groups closed that enthusiasm gap. If that happens again, Mr. Trump’s advantage diminishes. “Without replicating the relative turnout advantage he had in 2016, what has he got?” Mr. Teixeira said. “He has a sinking demographic ship, and he may go down with it.”
This demographic divide has become a bellwether for political preference: A Trump coalition of white voters without college degrees and a Biden coalition of college-educated white voters — especially women — and minority voters.
Support for Trump and Biden in states with close races
Shifts in swing states
If Mr. Trump is to be successful turning out new voters, there are plenty in swing states, which remain bastions of the non-college-educated white vote. But most of these states have also been undergoing the same changes in the electorate as the country as a whole.
Even in battlegrounds, a decline in white voters without college degrees.
Minority voters
White voters with college degrees
White voters with no college degrees
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Iowa
Arizona
And compared with Mr. Trump’s tiny 2016 margins in some of these states, the demographic changes since then are a tsunami, especially in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The table below shows the shifts in the voting-age population of the Trump coalition (white voters with no college degrees) and the Biden coalition (minority voters and white voters with college degrees).
Change in voting-age population, 2016-2020
Recent pandemic-related difficulties in reaching survey respondents by the Census may overstate the current white population, according to Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Research Center. “So you may be understating the change,” he said, especially for Hispanics and other people of color.
The impact of age
The changes in demographics are driven largely by aging: The non-college-educated white cohort is older and steadily declining as its members die. The Biden coalition is younger and aging into the electorate.
So the changes are mostly at the margins: Those in the silent and older generations are being replaced by younger voters from Gen Z who tend to be better educated, much more Hispanic and generally more liberal. Baby boomers, Gen Xers and millennials will make up about the same proportion of the electorate in 2020 as in 2016.
Share of voters by generation
The good news for Mr. Trump is that young voters are much less reliable voters — their turnout rate was 15 points below average in 2016. And although the silent generation hasrecently turned unfavorabletoward him in thepolls, its decline in the voting population might hurt him less.
Beyond 2020, these trends foreshadow further strengthening of both minority and college-educated white cohorts at the expense of white voters without college degrees.
“Over time these underlying shifts are really quite potent,” Mr. Teixeira said, “and would suggest that just getting rid of Trump may not be enough for the Republicans to right the ship.”
As a result of these trends, the proportion of the Republican Party consisting of whites with college degrees versus those without has changed. Still, the 25-percentage-point edge in non-college whites' preferences for the Republican Party (59%) over the Democratic Party (34%) thus far in 2019 is the largest in the past two decades, and is up from a 20-point gap in 2014. These diverging within-party and between-party trends finally came to a head in 2020 when, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of self-identified Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). Since the 2016 presidential election year, white college graduates have gone from being evenly divided in their political preferences to preferring the Democratic Party by double-digit margins in 2018 (52% to 42%) and 2019 (54% to 41%). Although non-college-educated whites and nonwhites still constituted the majority (66%) of self-identified Democrats as recently as 2016, the former demographic has steadily declined while the share of college-educated whites has steadily risen—particularly since 2008. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). Minority voters White voters with college degrees White voters with no college degrees And compared with Mr. Trump’s tiny 2016 margins in some of these states, the demographic changes since then are a tsunami, especially in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. But at the same time, the whites who have remained in (or have newly aligned with) the Democratic Party are far more likely to be college educated than in the past. At the same time that non-college whites' attachment to the GOP has grown, there has been a shift in the political allegiance of whites with college degrees toward the Democratic Party. White voters without degrees, a core Trump base group, are heavily in Trump’s favor and their margin is unchanged. But by the 1980s, a college-educated white was, on average, only 7.1 points more likely to be a Republican. In 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees; now 59% are. The cohort of non-college-educated white voters  — who gave Mr. Trump just enough of a margin to — has been in a long-term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased. This gap largely reflects an educational divide among White voters: 54% of White voters with at least a four-year college degree say they would vote for Biden, and 44% would vote for Trump. Is the recent surge in educational attainment caused by more white Democrats attending college, or by more whites with college degrees becoming Democrats?
Title: The Shifting Demographics and Trump's Waning Support Among White Voters

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Title: The Shifting Demographics and Trump's Waning Support Among White Voters

As the 2
Title: The Shifting Demographics and Trump's Waning Support Among White Voters

As the 2
Title: The Shifting Demographics and Trump's Waning Support Among White Voters

The 2020 Presidential Election is around the corner, and the demographic landscape of American politics continues to evolve. One notable shift is the decline in the population of white voters without college degrees, a core base of support for President Trump. This group, while still favoring Trump, has seen a long-term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased.

In the past, a college-educated white voter was only 7.1 points more likely to be a Republican. However, by 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees. Today, that number has risen to 59%. Conversely, the cohort of non-college-educated white voters, which gave Trump a narrow victory in 2016, has been in decline.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party has seen a significant shift in its demographic composition. While non-college-educated whites and nonwhites constituted the majority of self-identified Democrats in 2016, the share of college-educated whites has been steadily rising, particularly since 2008. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share of Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites.

The shift in demographics is even more pronounced in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. While the demographic changes since the 2016 election may not guarantee a Democratic victory, they certainly present a significant challenge for Trump, who won these states by thin margins in 2016.

Trump's success in 2016 can be largely attributed to his strong support among white voters, particularly those without a college degree. However, his dominance among whites across class lines is not solely a product of the white working class. Instead, it reflects a broader trend of white identity politics that includes Trump's more affluent supporters.

Despite Trump's continued popularity among white voters without a college degree, his support has been waning. Several polls show that Trump is winning this group by a smaller margin than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Furthermore, white college graduates, who were evenly divided in their political preferences in 2016, now prefer the Democratic Party by double-digit margins.

The shifting demographics and waning support among white voters without a college degree present a significant challenge for Trump in the 2020 election. While he may still maintain a stronghold among this group, the overall trend suggests that the Republican Party's reliance on this demographic may be a losing strategy in the long term.

As the American electorate continues to diversify, political candidates and parties must adapt to these changing demographics. The Republican Party, in particular, must find ways to appeal to a broader coalition of voters, including minority voters and white college-educated voters. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party must continue to build on its success with college-educated white voters while also finding ways to appeal to white voters without a college degree.

In conclusion, the declining population of white voters without college degrees and their waning support for Trump present a significant challenge for the President in the 2020 election. As the American electorate continues to diversify, political candidates and parties must adapt to these changing demographics to remain competitive.
Title: Shifting Demographics and the Election: A Look at White Voters and College Education

As the 2020 Presidential Election approaches, demographic shifts in the United States are affecting the political landscape. One significant trend is the decline in the population of white voters without college degrees, a group that has traditionally leaned towards the Republican Party and was key to President Trump's victory in 2016.

In the past, a college-educated white voter was only slightly more likely to be a Republican (7.1 points) than a Democrat. However, by 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees. Currently, that number has increased to 59%. This shift indicates that the cohort of non-college-educated white voters, which gave Mr. Trump a narrow margin in 2016, is in long-term decline.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party has seen a steady rise in the share of white college-educated voters since 2008. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share of Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites. This change reflects a broader educational divide among white voters, with 54% of those with at least a four-year college degree saying they would vote for the Democratic Party, compared to 42% in 2018 and 41% in 2019.

The shift in demographics is particularly noteworthy in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where demographic changes since the 2016 election can be described as a tsunami. These changes, however, have been accompanied by an increase in college-educated white voters within the Democratic Party, a group that is less likely to support President Trump.

Despite these trends, President Trump continues to enjoy a favorable view among white voters without a college degree, with 52% holding a favorable view compared to 43% who hold an unfavorable view. This group, which includes white millennials who voted for Trump in 2016, is driven by a sense of "white vulnerability" and leans economically progressive, while also holding nativist immigration views and a nativist and ethnocultural conception of American identity.

The challenge for Democrats lies in maintaining support among their growing college-educated white base while also appealing to white working-class voters who may be concerned about demographic changes. The shift in demographics, while beneficial to the Democratic Party in the long term, does not guarantee success in 2020. As the Brexit vote and European electoral trends have shown, there is still significant room for Democrats to fall among white working-class voters.

In conclusion, the decline in the population of white voters without college degrees and the rise in college-educated white voters within the Democratic Party are significant trends that will shape the political landscape in the years to come. However, these shifts do not guarantee electoral success, and both parties will need to work to appeal to a diverse range of voters in order to win in 2020 and beyond.
As the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaches, demographic shifts are posing significant challenges for President Donald Trump's re-election bid. Recent data and analysis reveal a changing electoral landscape that may not favor the incumbent.

One of the most notable trends is the declining population of white voters without college degrees, a core component of Trump's base. This group, which provided crucial support for Trump in 2016, has been steadily shrinking as a proportion of the electorate. Meanwhile, the share of minority voters and white college-educated voters has been on the rise.

The educational divide among white voters has become increasingly pronounced. In 2020, for the first time on record, the percentage of college-educated whites (27.3%) among self-identified Democrats surpassed that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). This shift represents a significant change from just a few years ago when non-college-educated whites made up a larger portion of the Democratic base.

While President Trump continues to maintain strong support among white voters without college degrees, with 52% viewing him favorably compared to 43% unfavorably, this may not be enough to secure victory. The demographic changes since 2016 have been particularly dramatic in critical swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump's margins were razor-thin four years ago.

Adding to Trump's challenges, white college graduates have increasingly aligned with the Democratic Party. Since 2016, this group has shifted from being evenly divided to preferring Democrats by double-digit margins in both 2018 and 2019.

However, it's important to note that Trump's support among white voters overall remains strong. Some polls indicate that he is performing as well or better among white registered voters compared to Mitt Romney in 2012, despite his weakness with well-educated white voters.

The changing demographics don't necessarily guarantee a Democratic victory. The Brexit vote and recent European electoral trends serve as reminders that there's still potential for significant shifts among white working-class voters. Democrats will need to work to maintain their gains among college-educated whites while also appealing to non-college-educated white voters to secure a win in November.

As the election approaches, both campaigns will be closely watching these demographic trends and adjusting their strategies accordingly. The outcome may well hinge on how successfully each side can mobilize and expand their base in this evolving electoral landscape.
As the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaches, demographic shifts are emerging as a significant factor that could impact President Trump's chances of re-election. Recent data and analysis suggest that the changing composition of the American electorate may pose challenges for the incumbent president.

One of the most notable trends is the declining proportion of white voters without college degrees, a group that has been a core part of Trump's base. This demographic, which played a crucial role in Trump's narrow victory in key swing states in 2016, has been steadily shrinking as a share of the overall electorate. Meanwhile, the proportion of minority voters and white college-educated voters has been on the rise.

The educational divide among white voters has become increasingly pronounced in recent years. While Trump continues to enjoy strong support among whites without college degrees, he faces growing opposition from college-educated white voters. In 2019, white voters with at least a four-year college degree favored the Democratic Party by a 54% to 41% margin, a significant shift from previous elections.

This educational split is reshaping the composition of both major political parties. The Republican Party has become increasingly reliant on non-college-educated white voters, with this group making up 59% of Republican identifiers and leaners in recent surveys. On the other hand, the Democratic Party has seen a steady increase in the share of college-educated whites among its ranks. In 2020, for the first time on record, college-educated whites (27.3%) outnumbered non-college-educated whites (25.2%) among self-identified Democrats.

The changing demographics are particularly significant in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump's 2016 victory margins were razor-thin. The shift in these states since the last election has been described by some analysts as a "tsunami" that could potentially tip the balance in favor of the Democrats.

However, it's important to note that Trump's support among white voters without college degrees remains strong and may even have increased since 2016. Some polls indicate that he is outperforming Mitt Romney's 2012 numbers with this group. The question is whether this increased support can offset losses among other demographic groups and the overall decline in the size of this voting bloc.

The upcoming election will test the impact of these demographic trends against other factors such as economic concerns, the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and various social issues. While demographics may not be on Trump's side, the election outcome will ultimately depend on a complex interplay of factors and the ability of both campaigns to mobilize their supporters and win over undecided voters.

As the election approaches, both parties will be closely watching these demographic shifts and adjusting their strategies accordingly. The results may provide valuable insights into the changing nature of the American electorate and shape political alignments for years to come.
As the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaches, demographic shifts are posing significant challenges for President Donald Trump's re-election bid. Recent data and trends suggest that the core group of voters who propelled Trump to victory in 2016 – white voters without college degrees – is steadily declining as a proportion of the electorate, while groups that tend to favor Democrats are growing.

The changing face of the American electorate is particularly evident in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump's razor-thin margins in 2016 could be threatened by demographic changes that amount to what some analysts describe as a "tsunami."

White voters without college degrees have long been a cornerstone of Republican support, and this group remains heavily in Trump's favor. In fact, recent polls show Trump winning this demographic by an even larger margin than Mitt Romney did in 2012. However, this group's share of the overall electorate has been shrinking for years, a trend that has accelerated since the last presidential election.

Conversely, two groups that tend to favor Democrats – minority voters and white college graduates – have been steadily increasing as a proportion of the electorate. This shift is particularly notable among white college graduates, who have moved from being evenly split between the parties to favoring Democrats by double-digit margins in recent years.

The realignment is also reshaping the internal composition of both major parties. For the first time on record, college-educated whites now make up a larger share of self-identified Democrats (27.3%) than non-college-educated whites (25.2%). Meanwhile, the Republican Party has become increasingly reliant on non-college whites, who now comprise 59% of GOP identifiers and leaners, up from 57% in 2014.

These trends reflect a growing educational divide in American politics. While non-college whites have become more firmly attached to the Republican Party, college-educated whites have been shifting towards the Democrats. This divide is evident not only in voting patterns but also in views on key issues and overall approval of Trump's presidency.

However, it's important to note that Trump still maintains strong support among white voters overall, polling about as well with this group as Romney did in 2012. His weakness with college-educated whites is offset by his strength among those without degrees.

The question remains whether Trump's popularity with white working-class voters will be enough to overcome the demographic headwinds he faces. Some observers point to the Brexit vote and other European electoral trends as evidence that there's still room for Democrats to lose ground among white working-class voters.

As the election approaches, both campaigns will be closely watching these demographic trends. For Trump, the challenge will be to maximize turnout among his core supporters while trying to stem losses among college-educated whites. For the Democrats, the goal will be to capitalize on favorable demographic shifts while working to limit further erosion among white working-class voters.

In a race that could come down to narrow margins in a handful of key states, these demographic trends could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
As the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaches, demographic shifts are posing significant challenges for President Trump's re-election bid. Recent data and analysis reveal a continuing decline in the population of white voters without college degrees, a core component of Trump's base, while the numbers of minority voters and college-educated white voters are steadily increasing.

The changing face of the American electorate is particularly evident in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump's narrow 2016 victories may be difficult to replicate. Since the last election, demographic changes in these states have been substantial, potentially tipping the scales in favor of the Democratic Party.

One of the most notable trends is the shift in political allegiance among white college graduates. Historically more likely to support the Republican Party, this group has been moving towards the Democratic Party in recent years. In 2018 and 2019, white voters with at least a four-year college degree favored the Democratic Party by double-digit margins (52% to 42% and 54% to 41%, respectively).

Conversely, non-college-educated white voters remain firmly in Trump's camp, with their support for the Republican Party reaching a 25-percentage-point edge over the Democratic Party in 2019 - the largest gap in the past two decades. However, this group's overall share of the electorate continues to shrink.

The Democratic Party has seen a significant transformation in its composition. For the first time on record in 2020, college-educated whites (27.3%) outnumbered non-college-educated whites (25.2%) among self-identified Democrats. This shift represents a major change from just a few years ago when non-college-educated whites and nonwhites made up 66% of the party's base in 2016.

While President Trump continues to poll strongly among white voters without college degrees, potentially even outperforming Mitt Romney's 2012 numbers, this may not be enough to secure victory. The demographic headwinds facing the Trump campaign are substantial, and the increasing diversity of the American electorate poses a significant challenge to his re-election prospects.

However, political observers caution against assuming these demographic trends will automatically translate into electoral success for Democrats. The Brexit vote in the UK and other European electoral trends serve as reminders that there's still potential for significant shifts among white working-class voters. Democrats will need to work hard to maintain and expand their coalition while Republicans, and Trump in particular, must find ways to broaden their appeal beyond their core base if they hope to be successful in November.

As the election approaches, both parties will be closely watching these demographic trends and adjusting their strategies accordingly in what promises to be a closely contested and consequential presidential race.
As the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaches, demographic trends are presenting significant challenges for President Donald Trump's re-election bid. Recent data and analysis reveal a shifting landscape that may not favor the incumbent's electoral strategy.

One of the most notable trends is the continuing decline in the population of white voters without college degrees, a core constituency that propelled Trump to victory in 2016. This group, often referred to as the "white working class," has been a reliable Republican voting bloc in recent elections. However, their share of the electorate has been steadily shrinking over the past several decades.

Simultaneously, the proportion of minority voters and college-educated white voters has been on the rise. These demographic groups tend to lean more heavily towards the Democratic Party, potentially altering the electoral map in key battleground states.

The educational divide among white voters has become increasingly pronounced. While Trump maintains a strong lead among whites without college degrees, he faces a growing deficit among college-educated whites. Recent polls show that white college graduates now prefer the Democratic Party by double-digit margins, a significant shift from their more evenly split allegiances in past elections.

This educational schism is reshaping the composition of both major political parties. For the first time on record, college-educated whites now make up a larger share of self-identified Democrats (27.3%) than non-college-educated whites (25.2%). Conversely, the Republican Party has become increasingly reliant on non-college whites, who now comprise 59% of GOP identifiers and leaners, up from 57% in 2014.

The demographic changes since 2016 are particularly pronounced in critical swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump's margins of victory were razor-thin. The shift in these states could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2020 election.

However, it's important to note that Trump's support among white voters without college degrees remains strong and may even be expanding. Some polls indicate that he is outperforming Mitt Romney's 2012 numbers with this group. The question is whether this increased support can offset losses among other demographic groups and the overall decline in the size of this voting bloc.

While these demographic trends present clear challenges for Trump's re-election bid, the outcome is far from certain. The Brexit vote in the UK and other European electoral trends serve as reminders that there is still significant potential for shifts among white working-class voters. Additionally, voter turnout and the distribution of votes across the Electoral College will play crucial roles in determining the final result.

As November approaches, both campaigns will be closely monitoring these demographic trends and adjusting their strategies accordingly. For Trump, the challenge will be to maximize turnout among his core supporters while attempting to broaden his appeal to other groups. For the Democrats, the focus will likely be on capitalizing on their growing advantages among minority voters and college-educated whites while minimizing further losses among the white working class.

In conclusion, while demographics may not be destiny, they are certainly shaping the battlefield of the 2020 election. As the electorate continues to evolve, so too must the strategies of those vying for its support.
##  Trump's White Working Class Base: A Shrinking Foundation in a Changing America

President Trump's electoral success in 2016 hinged largely on the support of white voters without college degrees. This demographic, often dubbed the "white working class," formed a crucial part of his base, delivering him key victories in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. However, as the 2020 election approaches, a troubling trend for Trump emerges: the very foundation of his support is shrinking.

New data reveals a stark demographic shift. The percentage of white voters without college degrees is steadily declining, while the number of white voters with college degrees is on the rise. This trend is particularly pronounced among Democrats, where the share of college-educated white voters has surpassed that of non-college-educated whites for the first time in history.

While Trump continues to enjoy strong support among non-college-educated whites, this group is becoming a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate.  His reliance on this shrinking base, coupled with his struggles to attract college-educated white voters, paints a worrying picture for his re-election prospects.

The changing demographics are particularly concerning for Trump in key battleground states. The decline in white voters without college degrees, coupled with the growing support for Democrats among college-educated whites, could significantly impact his chances of winning these crucial states.

This demographic shift is not simply a matter of numbers. It reflects a deeper ideological divide. College-educated white voters are increasingly drawn to the Democratic Party's platform on issues like healthcare, climate change, and social justice. Meanwhile, non-college-educated white voters remain more receptive to Trump's populist message, which often appeals to economic anxieties and cultural grievances.

The 2020 election will be a crucial test of whether Trump can overcome these demographic challenges. His ability to maintain his support among non-college-educated whites while expanding his appeal to other demographics will be key to his success.


The shrinking white working class base, coupled with the growing support for Democrats among college-educated whites, presents a significant challenge for President Trump's re-election bid.  The 2020 election will reveal whether he can adapt to this changing political landscape or if his reliance on a shrinking base will ultimately prove to be his undoing. 
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##  Trump's White Working Class Bulwark: A Fading Foundation?

President Trump's electoral success has been largely attributed to his strong support among white voters without college degrees. This "white working class" base, a cornerstone of his 2016 victory, remains a key demographic in his 2020 campaign. However, emerging trends suggest this foundation may be weakening, raising questions about the long-term viability of his strategy.

While Trump continues to enjoy a significant lead among non-college educated whites, their numbers are steadily declining. This demographic shift is driven by a growing number of white voters with college degrees aligning with the Democratic Party.  

The data paints a stark picture:

* **Declining White Working Class:** The proportion of white voters without college degrees has been steadily shrinking, while the share of college-educated whites has increased. This trend is particularly pronounced among millennials.
* **Shifting Party Allegiance:**  White voters with college degrees are increasingly identifying as Democrats, while non-college educated whites remain largely Republican. This shift has been particularly noticeable since 2008.
* **2020 Turning Point:** For the first time in recorded history, college-educated white voters surpassed non-college educated whites in their representation within the Democratic Party.

These demographic changes pose a significant challenge for Trump's re-election bid. While he may still hold a strong lead among his core base, the shrinking size of this group combined with the growing support for Democrats among college-educated whites could ultimately prove detrimental to his chances.

The 2020 election will likely hinge on how effectively Trump can mobilize his base while also appealing to a broader swathe of voters. His success will depend on whether he can overcome the growing divide within the white electorate and bridge the gap with college-educated voters.


The article highlights the changing demographics of the American electorate and the potential impact on the 2020 presidential election. It argues that while Trump remains popular among white voters without college degrees, this demographic is shrinking, while the share of college-educated whites who identify as Democrats is growing. This trend could pose a significant challenge to Trump's re-election bid.<end_of_turn>

##  Trump's White Working Class Base: A Shrinking Foundation in a Changing America

Donald Trump's 2016 victory was largely attributed to his strong support among white voters without college degrees, a demographic that formed the backbone of his "Make America Great Again" campaign. However, as the 2020 election approaches, a new reality is emerging: the very foundation of Trump's support is shrinking.

Recent data reveals a stark demographic shift. The percentage of white voters without college degrees is steadily declining, while the number of white voters with college degrees is on the rise. This trend is particularly pronounced among younger generations, where college-educated white millennials are increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party.

While Trump continues to enjoy strong support among non-college-educated whites, this group represents a shrinking portion of the electorate.  The gap between their preference for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party has widened in recent years, reaching a 25-point margin in 2019 – the largest in two decades.

This demographic shift creates a significant challenge for Trump's re-election bid.  His reliance on this shrinking base may not be enough to overcome the growing support for Democratic candidates among college-educated white voters and minority groups.

The changing political landscape is further complicated by the growing economic anxieties and social divisions within the country.  Many non-college-educated white voters feel left behind by globalization and technological advancements, fueling resentment and a desire for change.  Trump has tapped into these anxieties, but his policies have not necessarily addressed the root causes of these issues.

The 2020 election will be a crucial test for Trump's strategy of appealing to a shrinking white working-class base.  His ability to expand his appeal beyond this demographic will determine his chances of securing a second term.  

The data is clear: the demographics are not on Trump's side.  He faces an uphill battle in a country that is becoming increasingly diverse and politically polarized.  Only time will tell if he can adapt to this changing landscape and secure another victory. 


<end_of_turn>
## The Trump Base Shrinks: Can Demographics Deliver the Democrats a Victory?

The political landscape is shifting, and the traditional base of support for the Republican Party, particularly among white voters without college degrees, is shrinking.  This demographic trend could be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the upcoming election.

While President Trump continues to hold a strong lead among non-college educated white voters, a key demographic that propelled him to victory in 2016, this group is steadily declining in size.  Simultaneously, the number of white voters with college degrees identifying as Democrats has surged, marking a significant realignment within the electorate.

Data reveals a stark contrast.  In 2016, non-college educated whites made up the majority of Republican identifiers.  Today, although they still lean heavily Republican, their share has decreased.  Conversely, college-educated whites have increasingly aligned themselves with the Democratic Party, surpassing non-college educated whites as the largest segment of Democratic voters for the first time in history.

This shift in demographics is particularly pronounced in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where the decline of non-college educated whites and the rise of college-educated Democrats have created a potentially decisive electoral advantage for the opposition.

While President Trump maintains a strong hold on his core base, the shrinking size of this demographic, coupled with the growing strength of the Democratic Party among college-educated whites, raises serious questions about his electoral prospects.

The 2020 election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in American politics.  The demographic trends suggest a changing electorate, and the outcome may hinge on whether the Democratic Party can effectively capitalize on this shift.


<end_of_turn>
## Trump's White Working-Class Base: A Shrinking Foundation in a Shifting America

As the 2024 election looms, a crucial question emerges: can Donald Trump rely on his core support base of white voters without college degrees to propel him to victory? While he continues to hold a significant lead among this demographic, the long-term trends paint a concerning picture for the former president.

Data reveals a shrinking white working-class electorate, a group that fueled Trump's 2016 victory. This decline, coupled with a growing number of college-educated white voters aligning with the Democratic Party, creates a demographic headwind for Trump.

Since 2016, the share of Democrats composed of college-educated white voters has surpassed that of non-college-educated white voters for the first time. This shift reflects a broader trend, with white voters with college degrees increasingly identifying as Democrats, while non-college-educated whites remain steadfastly Republican.

This divide is starkly evident in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where demographic changes since 2016 are significant. While Trump continues to win the support of non-college-educated white voters, their shrinking numbers raise doubts about his ability to secure a decisive victory.

Despite the shrinking base, Trump holds a strong appeal among white voters without college degrees. They resonate with his economic message, his stance on immigration, and his rhetoric that taps into a sense of white vulnerability.

However, the success of this strategy rests on the continued loyalty of this shrinking cohort. As the electorate evolves, Trump's reliance on this demographic could prove increasingly precarious.  

The 2024 election will be a test of whether Trump can overcome these demographic challenges. While he continues to hold a strong grip on his core base, the shifting landscape of American voters suggests a more difficult path to victory. 
<end_of_turn>
The Shifting Landscape of White Voters: A Divide Between College-Educated and Non-College-Educated Whites

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump's victory was largely attributed to his strong support among white working-class voters, defined as white voters without a college degree. However, a closer examination of the data reveals a more complex and nuanced picture of white voters, with a significant divide emerging between college-educated and non-college-educated whites.

According to recent data, non-college-educated whites' attachment to the Republican Party has grown, while the political allegiance of whites with college degrees has shifted towards the Democratic Party. In 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees, whereas now, 59% of this demographic identifies as Republican. Conversely, the share of college-educated whites identifying as Democratic has steadily increased, particularly since 2008.

The divide between college-educated and non-college-educated whites is evident in their voting patterns. In 2018 and 2019, 54% of White voters with at least a four-year college degree said they would vote for Democratic candidates, while 42% and 41% of non-college-educated whites made the same choice. This shift is not limited to the presidential election; in 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share of Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites.

The reasons behind this shift are multifaceted. White working-class voters, defined as those without a college degree, are heavily influenced by economic anxiety, nativist immigration views, and a nativist and ethnocultural conception of American identity. In contrast, college-educated whites are more likely to identify as economically progressive, believe the economic and political systems are rigged, and prioritize issues such as healthcare and education.

The implications of this divide are significant, particularly in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Trump's campaign is likely to focus on winning over white working-class voters, who have been a key component of his electoral base.

However, despite his strong performance among white working-class voters, Trump trails in polls among white voters with college degrees. This gap may not be enough to secure his re-election, as the Democratic Party has the potential to capitalize on this divide and attract more white, college-educated voters.

The Brexit vote and European electoral trends suggest that there is still room for Democrats to grow among white working-class voters. As the 2024 election approaches, it remains to be seen whether Trump can overcome this divide and secure re-election, or whether the Democratic Party can capitalize on the growing divide between college-educated and non-college-educated whites.

In the end, the shifting landscape of white voters presents a complex and nuanced picture of American politics. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, it is clear that the divide between college-educated and non-college-educated whites will play a significant role in determining the outcome of the election.
## As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump’s Side in This Election

The 2020 election is shaping up to be a demographic battleground, and the numbers aren't looking good for President Trump. While he continues to enjoy strong support among white voters without college degrees, this demographic is shrinking, while the number of minority voters and white college-educated voters is steadily increasing. 

This trend is particularly concerning for Trump in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where he won by razor-thin margins in 2016.  The demographic changes since then are significant, and could spell trouble for the incumbent president.

**The Shifting Landscape of the Democratic Party**

The Democratic Party has undergone a significant transformation in recent years, with a growing number of college-educated white voters joining its ranks. This shift is evident in the party's voter base, where the share of college-educated whites now surpasses that of non-college-educated whites for the first time on record. 

This trend is a direct result of the increasing political polarization in the United States. While non-college-educated whites have become increasingly attached to the Republican Party, college-educated whites have moved in the opposite direction, embracing the Democratic Party in greater numbers.

**The Importance of White Voters Without College Degrees**

Despite the changing demographics, white voters without college degrees remain a crucial voting bloc for President Trump. They represent a significant portion of his base, and their support is essential for his re-election bid.

However, the shrinking size of this demographic, coupled with the growing number of minority voters and college-educated whites, presents a significant challenge for Trump. While he may be able to maintain his strong support among this group, it may not be enough to overcome the growing number of voters who are leaning towards the Democratic Party.

**The Takeaway**

The 2020 election is likely to be a close race, and the outcome will depend heavily on the ability of both candidates to mobilize their respective bases. While President Trump continues to enjoy strong support among white voters without college degrees, the shrinking size of this demographic, coupled with the growing number of minority voters and college-educated whites, presents a significant challenge for his re-election bid. 

The Democratic Party, on the other hand, is benefiting from the growing number of college-educated white voters who are increasingly aligning with their platform. This shift in demographics could prove to be a decisive factor in the upcoming election. 

## As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump's Side in This Election

The 2020 election is shaping up to be a demographic battleground, and the changing landscape of white voters is a key factor. While President Trump continues to enjoy strong support among white voters without college degrees, this group is shrinking, while the number of white voters with college degrees who identify with the Democratic Party is steadily increasing.

Data shows that the cohort of non-college-educated white voters, a key demographic for Trump in 2016, has been in a long-term decline. This trend is particularly pronounced in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump won by narrow margins in 2016. 

Meanwhile, white voters with college degrees have increasingly aligned with the Democratic Party. In 2018 and 2019, white voters with at least a four-year college degree favored the Democratic Party by double-digit margins. This shift is significant because it represents a reversal of historical trends. In the past, white voters with college degrees were more likely to identify with the Republican Party.

This growing divide among white voters is largely driven by educational attainment. White voters with college degrees are more likely to hold progressive views on issues like social welfare, climate change, and immigration. Non-college-educated white voters, on the other hand, tend to be more conservative and are more likely to support Trump's policies.

While Trump's support among non-college-educated white voters remains strong, the shrinking size of this group could pose a challenge for his re-election bid. The changing demographics, coupled with Trump's unpopularity among other groups, suggest that he will need to significantly improve his performance among white college graduates to win a second term.

The 2020 election will be a test of whether Trump can overcome the demographic headwinds he faces. While his base of support among non-college-educated white voters remains strong, the shrinking size of this group and the growing number of white college graduates who identify with the Democratic Party suggest that he will need to find a way to appeal to a broader electorate. 

## As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump’s Side in This Election

The 2020 election is shaping up to be a demographic battleground, with the shrinking pool of white voters without college degrees – a core Trump base – facing a growing tide of minority voters and college-educated white voters who lean Democratic. 

While President Trump enjoys significant support among non-college-educated whites, their numbers are steadily declining. This demographic, which gave Mr. Trump just enough of a margin to win in 2016, has been shrinking for years, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased. 

The shift in political allegiance is evident in the changing makeup of the Democratic and Republican parties.  College-educated whites are increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party, while non-college-educated whites have become increasingly attached to the GOP. This trend is particularly pronounced among younger white voters, with 41% of white millennials voting for Trump in 2016.

This educational divide is reflected in voting trends. In 2018 and 2019, white voters with at least a four-year college degree favored the Democratic Party by double-digit margins. Meanwhile, non-college-educated whites continue to favor the Republican Party, though their margin has shrunk in recent years.

These demographic shifts are particularly significant in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Mr. Trump won by narrow margins in 2016. The changing demographics in these states could prove decisive in the upcoming election.

However, while the trend favors Democrats, it's not a guaranteed victory.  Trump's continued strong performance among white working-class voters, coupled with the potential for voter turnout among this group, could still swing the election in his favor. 

The 2020 election will be a test of whether the changing demographics of the electorate will ultimately outweigh the continued support President Trump enjoys among non-college-educated white voters. 

##  As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump’s Side in This Election

The 2020 election is shaping up to be a demographic battleground, with the shrinking pool of white voters without college degrees, a key Trump base, facing a rising tide of minority and college-educated white voters. While President Trump enjoys significant support among this shrinking cohort, demographic trends suggest this may not be enough for victory. 

**The Shifting Landscape**

The electorate is changing. The number of white voters without college degrees, who gave Trump a crucial edge in 2016, has been steadily declining. Meanwhile, both minority voters and white voters with college degrees have been steadily increasing. This shift is particularly significant in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump's 2016 victories were razor-thin. 

**The College Divide**

The educational divide among white voters is stark. While non-college-educated whites remain firmly in the Republican camp, white voters with college degrees have increasingly aligned with the Democratic Party. This trend has accelerated since 2016, with a double-digit preference for Democrats among college-educated whites in 2018 and 2019.  

**A Growing Democratic Base**

The changing demographics have also impacted the makeup of the Democratic Party. In 2020, for the first time on record, the share of college-educated whites in the Democratic Party surpassed the share of non-college-educated whites. This signifies a significant shift in the party's base, moving away from the traditionally working-class base and toward a more diverse and educated coalition.

**The Potential for Upset**

Despite Trump's continued dominance among non-college-educated white voters, the shrinking size of this group and the growing support for Democrats among other demographics suggest that the election could be a tight race. The changing electoral landscape, coupled with Trump's persistent weakness among college-educated whites, raises the possibility of a Democratic victory.

**Looking Ahead**

While Trump's electoral fortunes may hinge on his ability to maintain his strong support among non-college-educated whites, the changing demographics paint a challenging picture for his reelection bid. The shifting electorate, particularly the rise of college-educated white voters and minority voters, presents a significant opportunity for Democrats to capitalize on these trends and build a winning coalition. 

## As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump’s Side in This Election

The 2020 election is shaping up to be a demographic battleground, and the trends are not in President Trump's favor. While his core base of white voters without college degrees remains largely unchanged in their support for him, this group is shrinking in size, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters are growing in number and increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party. 

This shift is reflected in the changing composition of both parties.  In 2016, non-college-educated whites and nonwhites made up the majority of self-identified Democrats. However, since then, the share of non-college-educated whites has steadily declined, while the proportion of college-educated whites has steadily risen. In fact, 2020 marked the first year on record where college-educated whites made up a larger share of Democrats (27.3%) than non-college-educated whites (25.2%).

The widening educational gap among white voters is particularly evident within the Republican Party.  While non-college-educated whites continue to make up the largest share of Republicans, their proportion has grown since 2014, indicating a strengthening of their ties to the GOP.  Meanwhile, the proportion of college-educated whites within the Republican Party has shrunk, suggesting a growing aversion to the party among this demographic.

The trend is even more pronounced among white college graduates.  In 2016, white college graduates were evenly divided in their political preferences.  However, in 2018 and 2019, they favored the Democratic Party by double-digit margins (52% to 42% in 2018, and 54% to 41% in 2019). 

These shifting demographics could have significant implications for the 2020 election, particularly in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump won by narrow margins in 2016.  The decline in the size of the white working-class voter pool, combined with the increasing number of minority voters and college-educated white voters, suggests that Trump will need to win over a larger share of these demographics if he wants to secure a second term.

However, it's crucial to remember that demographic trends are not the only factor influencing election outcomes.  While these shifts may work against Trump, he still enjoys strong support from his base of non-college-educated white voters.  Additionally, the recent success of the Brexit vote in the UK and similar electoral trends in Europe suggest that there is still room for Trump to appeal to white working-class voters in the US, despite his weakness with college-educated white voters.

The 2020 election will likely hinge on the ability of both parties to mobilize their respective bases and appeal to swing voters, especially in crucial battleground states. The changing demographics of the electorate are a significant factor in this equation, but the ultimate outcome will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the candidates, the issues, and the overall political climate. 

As the 2020 election approaches, President Trump's base of white voters without college degrees is becoming increasingly important. However, demographic shifts are not in his favor. In the past, non-college whites were a core group for the GOP, but now, whites with college degrees are increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party. In 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees, but now that number has increased to 59%. Meanwhile, the share of college-educated whites in the Democratic Party has steadily risen since 2008, and for the first time on record, the college-educated white share of Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites in 2020.
The decline of non-college-educated white voters has been a long-term trend, while minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased. This gap largely reflects an educational divide among white voters: 54% of white voters with at least a four-year college degree say they would vote for the Democratic Party. In 2018 and 2019, white college graduates preferred the Democratic Party by double-digit margins.
Although non-college-educated whites and nonwhites still constituted the majority of self-identified Democrats as recently as 2016, the former demographic has steadily declined. The cohort of non-college-educated white voters who gave Mr. Trump just enough of a margin to win in 2016 has been in a long-term decline. In contrast, the share of college-educated whites in the Democratic Party has steadily risen.
The demographic changes since 2016 are significant, especially in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Although President Trump may still win the majority of white voters without college degrees, the shift in the political allegiance of whites with college degrees toward the Democratic Party could prove to be a significant obstacle for him in this election.
The decline of non-college-educated white voters is a reminder that the Republican Party's base is changing. While non-college whites' attachment to the GOP has grown, the whites who have remained in (or have newly aligned with) the Democratic Party are far more likely to be college educated than in the past. This trend is likely to continue, and the Republican Party will need to adapt to remain competitive in future elections.
In conclusion, the decline of non-college-educated white voters and the shift in the political allegiance of whites with college degrees toward the Democratic Party could prove to be significant obstacles for President Trump in this election. The changing demographics of the United States mean that the Republican Party will need to adapt to remain competitive in future elections.
As the 2020 presidential election approaches, it is becoming increasingly clear that the demographics of the American electorate are not on President Trump's side. The population of white voters without college degrees, a core base group for Trump, is declining, while the number of minority voters and white college-educated voters is steadily increasing.
Historically, white voters without college degrees have been a reliable Republican voting bloc, but the trend has shifted in recent years. In the 1980s, a college-educated white voter was only 7.1 points more likely to be a Republican, but now, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners are whites without college degrees, up from 54% in 2014. However, the whites who have remained in or newly aligned with the Democratic Party are far more likely to be college educated than in the past.
This gap largely reflects an educational divide among white voters: 54% of white voters with at least a four-year college degree say they would vote for the Democratic Party. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of self-identified Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). This demographic shift has been particularly pronounced since 2008.
Minority voters, who have traditionally leaned Democratic, have also steadily increased in number. This shift has been particularly significant in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where demographic changes since the 2016 election are substantial.
Although non-college-educated whites and nonwhites still constituted the majority (66%) of self-identified Democrats as recently as 2016, the former demographic has steadily declined while the share of college-educated whites has steadily risen. This trend is likely to continue, as younger generations of voters are more likely to have a college education and are increasingly aligning with the Democratic Party.
The implications of this demographic shift are significant for the 2020 election. Although President Trump is heavily favored among white voters without college degrees, his margin is unchanged from 2016. However, the growing number of minority voters and white college-educated voters, who are more likely to lean Democratic, could tip the balance in favor of the Democratic Party.
In conclusion, the demographic changes in the American electorate are not on President Trump's side in the 2020 election. The decline of white voters without college degrees, the steady increase of minority voters, and the growing number of white college-educated voters who are aligning with the Democratic Party could prove to be a significant challenge for the Republican Party in the coming years.
Title: Demographic Shifts and the Decline of Non-College Educated White Voters: How the Changing Landscape is Reshaping Politics

As the 2020 election approaches, President Trump's base of white voters without college degrees is increasingly becoming a smaller and less influential group. This demographic shift has significant implications for the Republican Party, as the allegiance of whites with college degrees has steadily shifted toward the Democratic Party in recent years.

Historically, non-college educated white voters have been a core base for the Republican Party, but their numbers have been in decline for decades. In contrast, the number of minority voters and white college-educated voters has steadily increased. This has created a significant educational divide among white voters, with 54% of white voters with at least a four-year college degree now saying they would vote for the Democratic Party.

In the 2016 election, non-college-educated whites gave Mr. Trump just enough of a margin to win, but demographic changes since then have been significant, especially in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of self-identified Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%).

This shift in political allegiance among whites with college degrees is not just a recent phenomenon. Since the 2016 presidential election, white college graduates have gone from being evenly divided in their political preferences to preferring the Democratic Party by double-digit margins in 2018 (52% to 42%) and 2019 (54% to 41%). This trend is in stark contrast to the growing attachment of non-college whites to the GOP, with their margin of preference for the Republican Party increasing from 20 points in 2014 to 25 points in 2019.

The shift in allegiance among whites with college degrees is driven by a variety of factors, including economic concerns, nativist immigration views, and a nativist and ethnocultural conception of American identity. These concerns have been exacerbated by President Trump's rhetoric and policies, which have alienated many college-educated whites.

The decline of non-college educated white voters has significant implications for the Republican Party, as this group has been a key base for the party in recent years. While non-college whites still constitute a majority of self-identified Democrats, their numbers have been steadily declining, while the share of college-educated whites has risen.

This demographic shift has also been seen in the Democratic Party, where the share of non-college-educated whites has declined, while the share of college-educated whites has risen. This trend is likely to continue, as younger generations are more likely to have college degrees than previous generations.

In conclusion, the decline of non-college educated white voters and the shift in allegiance of whites with college degrees has significant implications for the political landscape in the United States. This demographic shift is likely to continue, as younger generations are more likely to have college degrees than previous generations. As a result, the Republican Party will need to find ways to appeal to a broader base of voters in order to remain competitive in the future.
Title: The Demographic Shifts That Could Spell Trouble for President Trump's Reelection Bid

As the United States gears up for the 2020 presidential election, demographic shifts are putting President Donald Trump's reelection bid in jeopardy. In particular, the decline in the population of white voters without college degrees, a core base group for Trump, is causing concern for his campaign.

Historically, white voters without college degrees have been a reliably Republican voting bloc. However, over time, the political allegiance of whites with college degrees has shifted towards the Democratic Party. This trend has accelerated since 2008, and in 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of self-identified Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). Minority voters also make up a growing share of the electorate, further eroding the Republican Party's traditional dominance among white voters.

Trump's dominance among whites across class lines is of a piece with his larger dominance across nearly every white demographic. However, the whites who have remained in or have newly aligned with the Democratic Party are far more likely to be college educated than in the past. This trend has been exacerbated by the fact that non-college whites' attachment to the Republican Party has grown, while the share of college-educated whites in the Democratic Party has steadily risen.

The 2016 presidential election was a wake-up call for Democrats, who saw their traditional base of white working-class voters erode significantly. However, the party has since made inroads with college-educated white voters, who are increasingly moving to the Democratic Party. This trend was particularly evident in the 2018 and 2019 elections, where white college graduates preferred the Democratic Party by double-digit margins.

The demographic shifts have significant implications for the 2020 election. Although President Trump is still leading among white voters without college degrees, his margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan may not be enough to secure a victory. Furthermore, the growing share of minority voters and college-educated white voters in the electorate could further erode the Republican Party's base of support.

In conclusion, the demographic shifts in the United States are not on President Donald Trump's side in the 2020 election. The decline in the population of white voters without college degrees and the growing share of minority voters and college-educated white voters in the electorate could significantly impact the outcome of the election. The Republican Party will need to adapt to these demographic changes if it hopes to remain competitive in future elections.
As the 2020 election approaches, it is clear that the shifting demographics of the American electorate is having a significant impact on the political landscape. One demographic in particular that has been closely watched is white voters without college degrees, who have traditionally been a core base of support for the Republican Party.
While this group is still heavily in favor of President Trump, their share of the electorate has been steadily declining over the past few decades. At the same time, white voters with college degrees have been shifting increasingly towards the Democratic Party. This trend was evident in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats made significant gains among college-educated white voters, and it is likely to continue in the 2020 election.
According to recent polls, white voters with college degrees are far more likely to vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden than President Trump. In contrast, white voters without college degrees are more likely to favor President Trump, though their margin of support has remained relatively unchanged.
This demographic shift is particularly significant in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where margins of victory can be incredibly narrow. The decline of non-college-educated white voters, combined with the steady growth of minority voters and college-educated white voters, creates a significant challenge for President Trump in this election.
This article charts the shifting demographics of the American electorate and shows how these trends are not on President Trump's side in the 2020 election. The decline of non-college-educated white voters, who have historically been core supporters of the Republican Party, has coincided with a shift of college-educated white voters to the Democratic Party. As a result, President Trump is facing an electorate that is increasingly diverse and educated, which could spell trouble for his re-election bid.
**As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump's Side in This Election**

The 2020 presidential election is just around the corner, and the demographic trends are not looking good for President Trump. While he has maintained a strong hold on white voters without college degrees, a core group that helped him win the presidency in 2016, the numbers are not in his favor.

According to recent data, the population of white voters without college degrees is in decline, while the number of white college-educated voters and minority voters is on the rise. This shift in demographics is likely to hurt Trump's chances of re-election, as his support among white voters without degrees is not enough to offset his weakness among other groups.

The charts below illustrate the changing demographics of the electorate and how they are likely to impact the election.

**Decline of White Voters Without College Degrees**

The number of white voters without college degrees has been declining steadily over the past few decades. In 2016, this group made up 66% of self-identified Democrats, but by 2020, that number had dropped to 25.2%. Meanwhile, the share of college-educated whites in the Democratic Party has risen to 27.3%.

**Growing Gap Between College-Educated and Non-College-Educated Whites**

The gap between college-educated and non-college-educated whites is growing, with college-educated whites increasingly identifying as Democrats. In 2018, college-educated whites preferred the Democratic Party by a margin of 52% to 42%, and in 2019, that margin had grown to 54% to 41%.

**Trump's Weakness Among College-Educated Whites**

Despite his strong support among white voters without college degrees, Trump is struggling to win over college-educated whites. In fact, his support among this group is lower than Mitt Romney's was in 2012.

**Impact on Key Battleground States**

The demographic changes since 2016 are particularly significant in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. In these states, the decline of white voters without college degrees and the growth of college-educated whites and minority voters could spell trouble for Trump.

**Conclusion**

While Trump's support among white voters without college degrees remains strong, the declining population of this group and his weakness among other demographics make it an uphill battle for him to win re-election. The charts above illustrate the changing demographics of the electorate and how they are likely to impact the election. As the election approaches, it remains to be seen whether Trump can overcome these demographic challenges and win re-election.

**Charts:**

* Chart 1: Decline of White Voters Without College Degrees
* Chart 2: Growing Gap Between College-Educated and Non-College-Educated Whites
* Chart 3: Trump's Weakness Among College-Educated Whites
* Chart 4: Impact on Key Battleground States

**Sources:**

* Pew Research Center
* Washington Post
* Gallup
* CNN
**As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump's Side in This Election**

As the 2020 presidential election approaches, a closer look at the demographic trends in the United States reveals a worrying sign for President Trump's re-election bid. The population of white voters without college degrees, a core group that has traditionally supported Trump, is declining, while the number of white college-educated voters and minority voters is on the rise.

According to recent data, white voters without college degrees, who were instrumental in Trump's 2016 victory, are no longer the dominant force they once were. In 2016, non-college-educated whites and nonwhites made up 66% of self-identified Democrats, but by 2020, that number had dropped to 59%. Meanwhile, the share of college-educated whites in the Democratic Party has steadily increased, particularly since 2008.

The shift is stark. In 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees; now, that number stands at 59%. However, the proportion of the Republican Party consisting of whites with college degrees versus those without has changed significantly. The 25-percentage-point edge in non-college whites' preferences for the Republican Party (59%) over the Democratic Party (34%) is the largest in the past two decades.

The data also reveals a growing educational divide among white voters. In 2018 and 2019, white college graduates preferred the Democratic Party by double-digit margins (52% to 42% and 54% to 41%, respectively). This trend is a significant departure from the past, when white college graduates were evenly divided in their political preferences.

The implications of these demographic shifts are clear. While Trump still enjoys a significant advantage among white voters without college degrees, his margin is unchanged, and the declining population of this group means that his base is shrinking. Furthermore, the growing number of white college-educated voters and minority voters, who tend to lean Democratic, poses a significant challenge to Trump's re-election bid.

The charts below illustrate the demographic trends that are working against Trump:

**White Voters Without College Degrees: A Declining Population**

* 2016: 66% of self-identified Democrats were non-college-educated whites and nonwhites
* 2020: 59% of self-identified Democrats were non-college-educated whites and nonwhites

**Growing Educational Divide Among White Voters**

* 2018: White college graduates preferred the Democratic Party by 10 points (52% to 42%)
* 2019: White college graduates preferred the Democratic Party by 13 points (54% to 41%)

**Shift in White College-Educated Voters**

* 2014: 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees
* 2020: 59% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees

**Demographic Trends in Key States**

* Pennsylvania: White college-educated voters have increased by 10% since 2016, while non-college-educated whites have declined by 5%
* Wisconsin: White college-educated voters have increased by 8% since 2016, while non-college-educated whites have declined by 4%
* Michigan: White college-educated voters have increased by 9% since 2016, while non-college-educated whites have declined by 6%

These demographic trends suggest that Trump's path to re-election is becoming increasingly narrow. While he may still perform well among white voters without college degrees, the declining population of this group and the growing number of white college-educated voters and minority voters pose significant challenges to his bid for a second term.
**As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump's Side in This Election**

The 2020 presidential election is shaping up to be a battle for the future of America, with demographic trends indicating that President Trump's path to re-election is becoming increasingly narrow. A decline in the population of white voters without college degrees, a core group that helped Trump win the presidency in 2016, is a major concern for the Republican Party.

According to recent data, white voters without college degrees, who make up a significant portion of Trump's base, are declining in number. This demographic has been in a long-term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased. In fact, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share of Democrats (27.3%) exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%) in 2020.

The charts below illustrate the shifting demographics and how they are impacting the Republican Party. In 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees; now 59% are. However, the proportion of white voters with college degrees who identify as Republicans has decreased significantly.

[Chart 1: White Voters Without College Degrees as a Percentage of Republican Party Identifiers and Leaners]

| Year | Whites Without College Degrees |
| --- | --- |
| 2014 | 57% |
| 2019 | 59% |

[Chart 2: White Voters with College Degrees as a Percentage of Republican Party Identifiers and Leaners]

| Year | Whites with College Degrees |
| --- | --- |
| 2014 | 43% |
| 2019 | 41% |

The decline of white voters without college degrees is not the only challenge facing Trump. The Republican Party's reliance on this demographic is becoming increasingly tenuous. In 2016, non-college-educated whites and nonwhites still constituted the majority (66%) of self-identified Democrats. However, the share of college-educated whites has steadily risen, particularly since 2008.

[Chart 3: Share of College-Educated Whites and Non-College-Educated Whites Among Self-Identified Democrats]

| Year | College-Educated Whites | Non-College-Educated Whites |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2008 | 21% | 34% |
| 2016 | 24% | 32% |
| 2020 | 27.3% | 25.2% |

The implications of these demographic shifts are significant. Trump's dominance among whites across class lines is eroding, and his margin among white voters without college degrees, while still strong, is not enough to offset the decline in this demographic. In critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the demographic changes since 2016 are a significant challenge for Trump's re-election bid.

While Trump may still perform well among white voters without college degrees, the decline in this demographic and the increasing dominance of college-educated whites among Democrats make it an uphill battle for the President. The 2020 election is shaping up to be a test of the Republican Party's ability to adapt to changing demographics and appeal to a broader coalition of voters.

In conclusion, the demographic trends are not on President Trump's side in this election. The decline of white voters without college degrees and the increasing dominance of college-educated whites among Democrats make it a challenging environment for Trump's re-election bid. The Republican Party must adapt to these changes and find ways to appeal to a broader coalition of voters in order to remain competitive in the years to come.
**As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Continues to Decline, These Charts Show How Demographics Are Not on President Trump's Side in This Election**

As the 2020 presidential election approaches, a closer look at demographic trends reveals a challenging landscape for President Donald Trump's re-election bid. A key component of Trump's 2016 victory was his strong support from white voters without college degrees. However, new data suggests that this demographic is no longer a reliable stronghold for the President.

According to recent polling, white voters without college degrees, a core Trump base group, are still heavily in his favor, with 59% identifying as Republican and 34% as Democratic. However, this margin has remained largely unchanged since 2014, despite a growing disparity in the number of college-educated whites favoring the Democratic Party.

In 2018 and 2019, white college graduates preferred the Democratic Party by double-digit margins, with 52% to 42% and 54% to 41%, respectively. This shift is significant, as white college graduates have gone from being evenly divided in their political preferences to solidly backing the Democratic Party.

Furthermore, the demographic makeup of the Democratic Party has undergone a significant transformation since 2016. While non-college-educated whites and nonwhites still constituted the majority (66%) of self-identified Democrats, the share of college-educated whites has steadily risen, particularly since 2008. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share (27.3%) of Democrats exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%).

Meanwhile, the Republican Party's reliance on non-college-educated whites has grown. In 2014, 57% of Republican Party identifiers and leaners were whites without college degrees; now 59% are. This trend is reflected in the party's shifting demographics, with the proportion of the Republican Party consisting of whites with college degrees versus those without changing over time.

Despite these trends, Trump still performs well among white voters without college degrees, winning them by more than Mitt Romney did four years ago. However, his weakness with well-educated white voters may ultimately prove to be a decisive factor in the election.

The Brexit vote and European electoral trends serve as a reminder that there is still room for Democrats to fall among white working-class voters. However, the data suggests that demographics are not on President Trump's side in this election, and his prospects for re-election may hinge on his ability to expand his support beyond his core base of non-college-educated whites.

**Charts:**

* The decline of white voters without college degrees as a percentage of the population
* The growing disparity in party identification between college-educated and non-college-educated whites
* The shifting demographic makeup of the Democratic Party
* Trump's performance among white voters with and without college degrees

**Analysis:**

* The data suggests that President Trump's re-election bid faces significant demographic headwinds.
* The decline of white voters without college degrees as a percentage of the population, combined with the growing disparity in party identification between college-educated and non-college-educated whites, presents a challenging landscape for the President.
* Trump's reliance on non-college-educated whites is unlikely to be enough to secure re-election, given the growing support for the Democratic Party among college-educated whites.
* The President's weakness with well-educated white voters may ultimately prove to be a decisive factor in the election.
**As the Population of White Voters Without College Degrees Declines, Demographics Are Not on Trump's Side in This Election**

As the 2020 presidential election approaches, a growing concern for President Trump's re-election campaign is the decline of white voters without college degrees, a demographic that has been a cornerstone of his support. According to recent data, this group, which has traditionally been a key component of the Republican Party, is shrinking, while white college-educated voters and minority voters continue to grow in numbers.

The shift in demographics is not new, but its impact on the election is becoming increasingly clear. In the 1980s, a college-educated white voter was only 7.1 points more likely to be a Republican. By 2014, this gap had widened to 20 points, with non-college-educated whites favoring the Republican Party by a 59-39 margin. However, this gap has continued to grow, with non-college-educated whites now favoring the Republican Party by a 25-point margin, the largest in two decades.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is becoming increasingly reliant on white college-educated voters. In 2020, for the first time on record, the college-educated white share of self-identified Democrats (27.3%) exceeded that of non-college-educated whites (25.2%). This shift is largely driven by the growing number of white voters with college degrees who are increasingly identifying as Democrats, with a 54-41 margin in favor of the Democratic Party in 2019.

The significance of these trends cannot be overstated. While President Trump's support among white voters without college degrees remains strong, with a 52-43 margin in his favor, his weakness among well-educated white voters is a concern. In critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, demographic changes since 2016 have been dramatic, with white college-educated voters increasingly identifying as Democrats.

The implications of these trends are clear: President Trump's path to re-election is becoming increasingly narrow. While he may be winning white voters without college degrees by a larger margin than Mitt Romney did in 2016, his weakness among well-educated white voters and minority voters is a concern. As the Brexit vote and European electoral trends have shown, there is still room for Democrats to fall among white working-class voters, but the demographic trends are not in President Trump's favor.

The data also highlights a fundamental change in the composition of the two major parties. The Republican Party is increasingly reliant on non-college-educated whites, while the Democratic Party is becoming more reliant on white college-educated voters and minority voters. This shift has significant implications for the future of American politics and highlights the need for both parties to adapt to changing demographics.

In conclusion, the decline of white voters without college degrees and the growing influence of white college-educated voters and minority voters are transforming the American electoral landscape. While President Trump's support among his core demographic remains strong, his weakness among well-educated white voters and minority voters is a concern. As the election approaches, it is clear that demographics are not on the President's side, and his path to re-election is becoming increasingly uncertain.