The analysis reported here suggests that considerable caution should be exercised when using EIA forecasts relating to the future price, supply, and consumption of NG. Similar caution should be exercised when using NEMS to assess the broader economic impacts of energy policy initiatives, e.g., carbon cap-and-trade programs limate-change proposals currently before Congress [3] depend heavily on predictions of the response of natural-gas supply and prices to carbon-permit prices. The actual capability of the NG supply network both here and abroad will be a critical factor in how economies adjust to such climate-change policies. Overestimating the supply capabilities of this network (as EIA has done over the past decade) could lead to underestimating the costs of carbon regulations.