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Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies / Arnulf Grubler. Natural Resources Forum, online 21st June 2011http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01386.x/fullThis  paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the patterns,  drivers, and characteristics of historical energy technology  transitions. This historical evidence is then compared to the treatment  of energy system dynamics in the scenarios literature on climate change  mitigation. The paper concludes with a discussion of generic  implications for clean energy and technology innovation policy. (© NRS)