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What The Nobel Prize Tells Us About Oil / Michael Levi, Energy, Security, and Climate, CFR blog, 10/10/2011http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2011/10/10/what-the-nobel-prize-tells-us-about-oil/Do you think that it’s straightforward to figure out whether high oil prices cause recessions? Many people apparently do. The 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics, awarded today to Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims for “empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy”, should make them reconsider. The basic reason is simple: if it was easy to separate cause from effect and thus measure the relationship between stimulus and response, they wouldn’t be awarding Nobel Prizes for related progress...