{"word_count": 73, "character_count": 508}
New tools for forecasting the real price of crude oil / Lutz Kilian, Research Fellow at CEPR, VoxEU.org, 23 June 2011http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6678Reduced Libyan output, broader political unrest in  the Middle East, and a slow global recovery have raised the uncertainty  surrounding oil prices. This column discusses the challenges and value  of forecasting future oil prices in real time, as opposed to fitting  models to revised oil prices released months after economic decisions  are made...