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China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050 / Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David; McNeil, Michael; Zheng, Nina; Ke, Jing; Levine, Mark. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2011.Summary report (83 p.) : http://china.lbl.gov/sites/china.lbl.gov/files/2050%20Summary%20Report%20042811%20FINAL.pdfAs a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of  economic expansion and the related growth of energy-intensive industry,  China overtook the United States to become the world’s largest  contributor to CO2 emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken  serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting  both a short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as  well as a long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This study  presents a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of  energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission  trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals. (© lbl)Over the past few years, LBNL has established and significantly  enhanced its China End-Use Energy Model which is based on the diffusion  of end-use technologies and other physical drivers of energy demand.  This model presents an important new approach for helping understand  China’s complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and  implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A  baseline (“Continued Improvement Scenario”) and an alternative energy  efficiency scenario (“Accelerated Improvement Scenario”) have been  developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese  government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the  potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate  emissions. In addition, this analysis also evaluated China’s long-term  domestic energy supply in order to gauge the potential challenge China  may face in meeting long-term demand for energy. (© lbl)It is a common belief that China’s CO2 emissions will continue to  grow throughout this century and will dominate global emissions. The  findings from this research suggest that this will not necessarily be  the case because saturation in ownership of appliances, construction of  residential and commercial floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer  use, and urbanization will peak around 2030 with slowing population  growth. The baseline and alternative scenarios also demonstrate that  China’s 2020 goals can be met and underscore the significant role that  policy-driven energy efficiency improvements will play in carbon  mitigation along with a decarbonized power supply through greater  renewable and non-fossil fuel generation. (© lbl)