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Armed Conflicts and Security of Oil and Gas Supplies / Giacomo Luciani. Bruxelles : CEPS Working Documents, June 2011, 23 p.http://www.ceps.eu/book/armed-conflicts-and-security-oil-and-gas-suppliesThe paper offers a systematic analysis of the impact of international or  civil wars and violent non-state groups on global oil and gas supplies.  Statistical evidence points to the fact that international wars are  becoming increasingly rare, while civil wars remain frequent. The paper  discusses the cases of the Iraq-Iran war and the Iraqi invasion of  Kuwait, showing the limits to the damage that belligerents were able to  inflict on oil installations and illustrating how the world was able to  compensate for this damage. The Iraqi insurgency following international  intervention to replace the Saddam Hussein regime is discussed together  with other cases of civil wars in Nigeria, Angola and Sudan. The  analysis supports the conclusion that oil and gas installations appear  to be much more resilient to armed conflict than is normally  acknowledged. History shows that civil wars have caused limited damage  to existing installations, but they have hindered the desired investment  in new development and attainment of target production levels. However,  it is very obvious that government’s inability to overcome or reabsorb  violent opposition discourages international oil company investment even  if the violence does not affect the areas around oil and gas  installations. (© CEPS)