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Warsaw unpacked: A race to the bottom? / Bill Hare, Marcia Rocha, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Lila Warszawski, Marion Vieweg, Cindy Baxter, Niklas Höhne. Ecofys ; Climate Analytics, 20 November 2013, 8 p. (Climate Action Tracker Policy Brief)http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/warsaw-unpacked-a-race-to-the-bottom/With currently implemented government policies, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to a warming of 3.7°C, about 0.6°C higher than that under the Copenhagen pledges. Under present policies there is about a one in three chance of exceeding 4°C by 2100. Since the Warsaw COP began, the announcement by Japan effectively enlarged the 2020 emissions gap by 3-4% or 356 MtCO2e in 2020. Australia's backtracking on implementation could widen the gap by another 25 MtCO2e. These negative developments tend to outweigh some positive signals: the US could - if policies were fully implemented - reduce the gap by around 523 MtCO2e; and policy developments in China, including the ban on new coal-fired power plants in some regions, could deliver additional reductions in the near future. (© Ecofys)