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Dynamic long-term modelling of generation capacity investment and capacity margins: a GB market case study / Dan Eager, Benjamin Hobbs and Janusz Bialek. Electricity Policy Research Group, January 2012, 55 p. (EPRG Working Paper 1201)http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/EPRG-1201_complete.pdfNon-technical summary (© EPRG):The UK Government is developing policies whose combined goals are 1) to promote the level of investment in renewable generation required to meet emissions reduction and renewable electricity targets; 2) maintain the level of security of supply risk that society has come to expect; and 3) reduce customer costs. The view of Government is that these goals will not all be met by the current market design, and consequently a reform of current arrangements has been proposed. This paper presents a dynamic simulation model of the aggregated Great Britain (GB) generation investment market and seeks to inform the debate about market reform, in particular the response and profitability of thermal investments to policies promoting investment in variable output renewable generation such as wind. An computationally fast, accurate and robust method of calculating the expected output, cost and revenue of thermal generation subject to varying load and thermal plant reliability expectations in a power system with high penetrations of wind is presented... more