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Salameh, M.G. (2010).  An Impending Oil Crunch by 2015 ? USAEE-IAEE Working Paper No. 10-054, Nov 2010, 21 p.http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1715853An analysis of the global oil market fundamentals indicates that a  severe oil crunch could be in the offing probably by 2015 or  thereabouts. By 2012, global oil production surplus capacity could  entirely disappear if the global economy continues to grow and by 2015  the shortfall in oil output could reach nearly 10 million barrels a day  (mbd) causing a severe oil crunch and pushing the oil price to levels  matching if not exceeding the price levels reached in July 2008, namely  $147/barrel. And while it is difficult to predict precisely what  economic, political and strategic effects such a shortfall might  produce, it would surely, at best, lead to periods of harsh economic  adjustment in the global economy and, at worst, to conflict and even war  should one of the major oil consumer nations choose to intervene  forcefully. (© author)