{"word_count": 628, "character_count": 7971}
Interesting discussions, this week, on statistics, and confidence,"On weather forecasts, Nate Silver, and the politicization of statistical illiteracy" http://simplystatistics.org/34635539704/on-weather-forecasts-nate-silver-and-the … on @simplystats's blog"The practical implications of misplaced confidence when dealing with statistical evidence are obvious and worrying"http://www. ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/118169b6-1d74-11e2-869b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Agq7H7OU …And alot of posts on Sandy (and consequences in the NYC area)"Why Should Government Respond Differently to Natural vs. Economic Disasters?" http://prospect.org/article/why-should-government-respond-differently-natural-vs-economic-disasters …"The Insurer Of Last Resort"  http://economistsview.typepad.com/ec/2012/10/the-insurer-of-last-resort.html?utm_source=feedburner&#38;utm_medium=feed&#38;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EconomistsView+%28Economist%27s+View%29 … see also http:// papers.ssrn.com/m?abstract_id=1706254 … on govermnent intervention and catastrophic risks"Public Evacuation Decisions and Hurricane Track Uncertainty "http://mansci.journal.informs.org/c6.full.pdf+html …"America's Most Expensive Storms" http://www.npr.org/bl12/10/31/163960418/americas-most-expensive-storms … see also http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/d... "Chasing storm damage estimates" http:// ftalphaville.ft.com/2038981/chasing-storm-damage-estimates/ …see also the interesting summary via@felixsalmon (see the cover of Businessweek above)"Why America Has Fallen Behind the World in Storm Forecasting" http://blogs.wsj.com/sp/10/28/why-america-has-fallen-behind-the-world-in-storm-forecasting/ …"How Global Warming Makes Hurricane Sandy Nastier" http://www.treehugger.com/climsandy.html … via @JenEDavison @DrScottSamsonvia @albeab The forecasting models behind the power outages forecasts for Hurricane #Sandy http:// punkrockor.wordpress.com/201-forecasting-models-behind-the-power-outages-forecasts-for-hurricane-sandy/ … by @lamclay"Has Climate Change Created A Monster?" http://www.npr.org/bl2/10/28/163812770/hurricane-csi-frankenstorm-sandy-and-climate-change?ft=1&#38;f=1007 …see also http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/... or http://www.pnas.org/co… "A Hurricane Once More, Sandy Defies The Rules" http://www. npr.org/bloay/2012/10/26/163729003/storms-uncertain-track-defies-weather-rules?ft=1&#38;f=1007 …hurricanes, maths and Fibonacci via https://plus.google.com/6432531297139156925/posts/TiyPvTMz2Aa …"Hurricane Sandy will probably grow into a what may become the worst to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years" http://www.bloomberg.com/ne5/u-s-east-from-washington-to-nyc-at-risk-from-hurricane-sandy.html …And a usual, a lot of very interesting posts here and there"Ignorance of how sample size affects statistical variation has created havoc for nearly a millennium" http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/Readings/Most%20Dangerous%20eqn.pdf…"Why predict percentages?"http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.ca/why-predict-percentages.html … see alsohttp://www. wired.com/opinion/11/why-predictions-and-statistical-models-are-necessary-and-good-for-democracy/?utm_source=feedburner&#38;utm_medium=feed&#38;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wired%2Findex+%28Wired%3A+Top+Stories%29 … on http://www.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/ …"Challenges modern-day “Big Data” raises for both Bayesian and frequentist approaches" http://stat.stanford.edu/papers/2005NEWModernScience.pdf … by Brad Efron“Life expectancy and disparity: an international comparison of life table data” http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/1/1/e000128.full.pdf … with discussion http://andrewgelman.com/2012/10/health-disparities-are-associated-with-low-life-expectancy/ …"Popularity versus similarity in growing networks"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v489/n7417/full/nature11459.html … (see also http://arxiv.org/pdf/1106.0286  )"Until Proven Guilty: False Positives and the War on Terror" http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/Readings/Wainer%20Savage.pdf …"Psychologists found that students remembered reading material better when it was printed in an ugly font" http://moreintelligentlife.com/ian-leslie/uses-difficulty … via @PtitSeb"Are tweets more accurate than science papers?"http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2012/10/31/are-tweets-more-accurate-than-science-papers/ … on @JohnDCook's blog via @msgbi"Why ecologists shouldn’t be Bayesians" http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/s/Dennis_Ecological_Applications_1996.pdf …"The Social Dynamics of Performance" http://papers.ssrn.com/papersm?abstract_id=2082982 … via @pareto35 why "mutual fund managers do not maintain their performance" ?[course online] it takes some guts to become a financial quant http:// youtu.be/lQzDTPJWdH0  and http://youtu.be/Yaq9sUAYhOI  #sexism "Science comics as tools for science education and communication: a brief, exploratory study" http://jcom.sissa.it/archJcom0804%282009%29A02/ … via @mesetudes"Data Scientist: The Sexiest Job of the 21st Century" http://hbr.org/20cientist-the-sexiest-job-of-the-21st-century/ar/1 … via @emilopezcano @harvardbiz  "there are no university programs offering degrees in data science"http://www.technologyreview.com/vieat-google-knows-about-the-presidential-race/ … "People lie to pollsters, and probably on Facebook. But not to Google's search bar""Regression and Causation: A Critical Examination of Econometrics Textbooks" http://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pu…"People Can Predict Elections (Even When Polls Can’t)" http://users.nber.org/pers/VoterExpectations.pdf …"High Frequency Trading and the UK Government’s Whitewash" http://www. wilmott.com/bloex.cfm/2012/10/26/High-Frequency-Trading-and-the-UK-Governments-Whitewash …"listen to your data" http://www.significancemagazine.org/detsings.html … via http://davegiles.blogspot.ca/listening-to-your-data.html …"When Math Hurts: Math Anxiety Predicts Pain Network Activation in Anticipation of Doing Math" http://www.plosone.org/artioi/10.1371/journal.pone.0048076…"Nonsymbolic number and cumulative area representation contribute shared and unique variance to symbolic math competence" http://www.pnas.org/cont…"London Surnames, The capital's most frequent surnames" http://names.mappinglondon.co.uk/  by @spatialanalysisPoll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias" http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/poll-averages-have-no-history-of-consistent-partisan-bias/ … by @fivethirtyeight"What’s the Use of Economics?" http://www.voxeu.org/article/what-s-use-economics … via http://economistsview.typepad.com/econo/2012/10/whats-the-use-of-economics.html?utm_source=feedburner&#38;utm_medium=feed&#38;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EconomistsView+%28Economist%27s+View%29 …"Climate models get smarter but uncertainty just won't go away" http:// arstechnica.com/scie… L'Aquila ruling: Should scientists stop giving advice?" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/m...20097554  "Almost all of the worst economic ideas out there are sold on the basis that they’re just “common sense.” "http://www.washingtonpost.com/bloin/wp/2012/10/27/gary-johnson-and-the-dangers-of-common-sense-economic-policy/ …"we are what we measure" http://www.worldpolicy.org/jou… via@ianikmarcil avec toujours des billets en FrançaisMorgan Stanley a « modifié son modèle de VaR pour qu’il soit plus réceptif aux récentes conditions de marchés » http://www.agefi.fr/morgan-stanley-trouve-la-martingale-pour-reduire-son-risque-de-marche-1242043.html … via  "Les banques sont incorrigibles !" par Philippe Herlinhttps:// fr.goldbroker.com/banques-incorrigibles-var-morgan-stanley-123.html …"Les dirigeants d’entreprises sont-ils les mieux placés pour parler d’économie?" http://blogs.univ-poitiers.fr/o-bouba-olga/2007/02/09/lesdirigeantsdentreprisessont-ilslesmieuxplacespourparlerdentrepriseetdeconomie/ … intemporalité des billets d'@oboubaSociété Générale versus Kerviel: "l'arrêt Kerviel ou la question de la morale au travail" http://www.leblogdedoudette.com/arret-kerviel-ou-la-question-de-la.html … par @_doudetteDid I miss something ?