{"word_count": 92, "character_count": 1145}
50 days ago (here), I was supposed to be very optimistic about the probability that I could reach a million viewed pages on that blog (over a bit more than two years). Unfortunately, the wind has changed and today, the probability is quite low... base=read.table("millionb.csv",sep=";",header=TRUE)X1=cumsum(base$nombre)base=read.table("million2b.csv",sep=";",header=TRUE)X2=cumsum(base$nombre)X=X1+X2 D=as.Date(as.character(base$date),"%m/%d/%Y")kt=which(D==as.Date("01/06/2010","%d/%m/%Y"))D0=as.Date("08/11/2008","%d/%m/%Y")D=D0+1:length(X1)P=rep(NA,(length(X)-kt)+1)for(h in 0:(length(X)-kt)){model  &#60;- arima(X[1:(kt+h)],c(7 1,7),method="CSS")  forecast &#60;- predict(model,200)u=max(D[1:kt+h])+1:300k=which(u==as.Date("01/01/2011","%d/%m/%Y"))(P[h+1]=1-pnorm(1000000,forecast$pred[k],forecast$se[k]))}plot( D[length(D)-length(P)]+1:220,c(P,rep(NA,220-length(P))),ylab="Probability to reach 1,000,000",xlab="",type="l",col="red",ylim=c(0,1))So, I guess my posts on multiple internal rates of return, or Young's inequality will have to wait next year... I really need to find some more sexy post to attract readers.. Challenge accepted !