{"word_count": 1115, "character_count": 7534}
Informed Trading in the WTI Oil Futures Market / Olivier Rousse et Benoît Sévi. Energy Journal, vol. 40, n°2, pp. 139-160. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02024317 The  weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as  the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market. We uncover suspicious  trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory  level is released that are higher than market forecasts: there are  significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding  the official release of the inventory level, with a drop in the average  price of –0.25% ahead of the news release. This finding is consistent  with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric  response of the oil price to oil-inventory news, and highlight an  over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the  announcement. Construire une politique énergétique et climatique européenne cohérente / Gissela Landa Rivera, Paul Malliet, Aurélien Saussay et Frédéric Reynès, Revue de l’OFCE, 158 (2018), 18 p. https://ideas.repec.org/p/spo/wpmain/infohdl2441-3khs2u12u59na9bkav8nst60r8.htmlL'Union européenne (UE) a acquis au cours des deux dernières décennies  une position de leader dans la lutte contre le changement climatique.  Cependant, malgré les progrès significatifs réalisés en matière de  réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) au cours de cette  période, l'efficacité du pilotage de la politique climatique et  énergétique au niveau de l'UE demeure insatisfaisante. Dans cet article,  nous nous efforçons d'identifier le rôle que l'UE peut jouer pour  faciliter la mise en œuvre de politiques de transition énergétique  ambitieuses. Tout d'abord, si la gestion des projets liés à la  transition énergétique est généralement mieux adaptée au niveau local ou  national, le niveau européen reste le plus approprié pour collecter des  fonds ou piloter des infrastructures transnationales de réseaux  d'énergie et de transport...Oil and Gas in a New Libyan Era: Conflict and Continuity / Richard Barltrop, Independent Consultant. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 25 p. (OIES PAPER: MEP 22) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oil-gas-new-libyan-era-conflict-continuity/This paper analyses the political economy of oil and gas in Libya,  examining how the country’s politics affect the oil and gas industry,  what has and has not changed since 2011, and the implications and  outlook for the future. It begins by briefly reviewing the history of  oil and gas development in Libya before 2011. It then proceeds to  examine what has happened in the latest, contrasting, period from 2011  to 2018, focusing on how insecurity and political division (in  particular the existence of rival governments) have affected the sector,  and identifying what the biggest continuities and changes have been.  The paper then considers how stability in the NOC and the role of  individuals have been, and continue to be, significant for outcomes and  prospects, and how competition from local actors seeking oil benefits is  intertwined with ongoing dynamics. Finally, the implications for  Libya’s future are considered.Prospective énergétique à l’horizon 2050. Vers un après pétrole ? / Fabien Giuliani. Editions de l'Institut des transitions, 2018, 30 p. https://institut-transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Apre%CC%80s-pe%CC%81trole-Giuliani-2018.pdfCette étude prospective propose d’examiner à moyen terme – à l’horizon 2050 – différentes évolutions possibles du système énergétique mondial. Elle n’a pas vocation à se substituer aux travaux de prévisions quantitatives mais vise à les compléter par un examen systémique donnant lieu à l’exploration de scénarios qualitatifs... Oil Price Paths in 2019: Navigating Volatile Markets / Bassam Fattouh &#38; Andreas Economou. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 18 p. (Energy Insight: 27) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oil-price-paths-2019-navigating-volatile-markets/After a sharp fall towards the end of 2018, oil prices in 2019  started on a positive note recovering some of their losses. From the low  point of $50/b reached on 28 December, the daily Brent price has  increased to above $60/b with many analysts now expecting another year  of sustained price volatility driven by a wide uncertainty pertaining to  global supply and demand trends. But unlike 2017 and 2018, the woes  engulfing the oil market in 2019 have extended to the demand-side. The  prospects of the global economy and its potential impact on global oil  demand, as well as the ability of OPEC+ producers to successfully  enforce the agreed or even implement future deeper cuts (if necessary)  to rebalance the market in the face of negative demand shocks are at the  core of the current debate. Also, the unfolding geopolitical  developments in Iran and Venezuela are expected to play a pivotal role  in shaping oil market outcomes in 2019. In this Energy Insight, we  revisit the main factors that shaped oil market dynamics in 2018 and  analyse how the oil price path could evolve in 2019 by evaluating the  prevailing risks underlying the world oil market using real-time  forecast scenarios of the Brent price.French gas customers face a real risk from a No Deal Brexit / Thierry Bros &#38; Patrick Heather. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 3 p. (OXFORD ENERGY COMMENT) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/french-gas-customers-face-real-risk-no-deal-brexit/Much is reported in the press on the UK government’s struggle to  negotiate the withdrawal agreement, and the main focus as we approach  the deadline has been on the potential impact of a so-called No Deal  Brexit on the UK economy.French energy law specifies that only companies based in the EU have  the authorisation to supply gas in France; unless a specific agreement  can be reached on this issue before the withdrawal date, all  shippers  on the French network based in the UK will, on 30th March, automatically  lose their authorisation to supply gas in France. This situation  concerns some 10 or so shippers who set up their trading desks in the  UK, as the British fiscal regime was far more conducive to their  activities than that in France. The French State is not willing, nor is it able, to fast track a  change in the law to accommodate UK companies post-Brexit. The current  situation shows how much still needs to be done, because the  consequences are potentially major as the amount of gas ‘at risk’ is  possibly up to 40 per cent of demand.It Don’t Mean a Thing, If It Ain’t Got That Swing: Why Gas Flexibility Is High on the Agenda for Russia and Europe / Vitaly Yermakov, Oxford Institute fo Energy Studies, Feb. 2019, 26 p. (Energy Insight: 48) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/dont-mean-thing-aint-got-swing-gas-flexibility-high-agenda-russia-europe/The question of flexibility is always important for the gas industry  because of the seasonal nature of gas&#160;demand. In the past few years the  role of flexible Russian gas in meeting Europe’s growing call on gas has  been indispensable. This paper looks at how Russia meets its own  flexibility requirements in the domestic market and whether peak  domestic demand for gas in Russia can introduce constraints on&#160;seasonal  export flow flexibility. It proceeds with analysis of the roles of  seasonal production swings and gas withdrawals from storage in Russia  and in Europe in covering seasonal demand peaks.