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Auteurs : Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch et al.Production : revue Science. Revue scientifique généraliste américaine publiée par l'Association américaine pour l'avancement des sciences (AAAS).  Diffusion : site de la revue Science.Date : 14 avril 2020Abstract. It  is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory  syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of  seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and  HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2  transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of  SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic  wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social  distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid  this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into  2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care  capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of  intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity.  Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the  extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of  apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since  a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.Source :  Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch, "Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period", Science, 14/04/2020. Publié en ligne. URL : https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793 (consulté le 15/05/2020).DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793