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ArgumentCatholics have long been an important force in American electoral politics even if they make up 21% of the American population. Could they be, compared to the other religious denominations, the game changer of the next elections ? Once a vital and loyal component of the New Deal Democratic coalition, Catholics in recent decades have shifted their political loyalties away from the Democratic Party to more of a partisan equilibium. Anglo-Catholics were strongly Democratic in the 1940's, with that partisanship reaching a peak in the Kennedy election of 1960, before receding significantly thereafter. By 2012, they were almost evenly distributed on the political spectrum;the historical Democratic advantage had disappeared. In comparison, their Latino brethren have exhibited strong Democratic tendencies over the past three decades, and their growing number suggest rising political importance.At the same time, by 2012, the White Catholic vote had become predominantly Republican, even in a year in which a Democrat was re-elected to the White House, and on balance party identification among these voters showed a slight Republican edge. Only the growing contingent of Latino Catholics kept the national vote of the entire religious community closely balanced. Latino Protestants, a growing segment of the Latino community, are more likely to vote Republican than their Catholic compatriots, giving George W. Bush over 60% of their vote in 2014, before reverting to majorities for Obama in 2008 and 2012, perhaps in response to GOP policy on immigration.Despite widespread agreement among scholars that the partisan behavior of Catholics has changed, there is much less consensus on the nature of that change, its permanence, and its causes. Of course, Catholic transformations must be put in the larger context of the changing partisanship of other religious groups. The partisan equilibrium among White Catholics has now been matched by mainline Protestants, as the later have abandoned their ancient Republican preferences. At the same time, Evangelical Protestants have shifted from Democratic to overwhelmingly Republican attachments, while Black Protestants became almost monolithically Democratic. In addition, the unaffiliated or secular population has recently become more important because of its increased size and Democratic propensities. Smaller ethnoreligious groups exhibit varied patterns : Latter-Day Saints (Mormons) are strongly Republican, Latino Protestants are notably less Democratic than Latino Catholics, while Jews and "other" religions (Muslims, Buddhists, and Hindus, for example) still align with the Democrats.This symposium will review the historical patterns of Catholic partisanship and voting behavior, as well as those of the other denominations, discuss major perspectives on electoral change (Republican shift, Hispanic and Asian vote, interreligious alliances) and test there perspectives with the latest survey data. Of course, the unexpected choice of Donald Trump as the Republican Party candidate will be a key issue of the debate.Programme22th SeptemberInstitut d&#8217;Etudes Politiques d&#8217;Aix-en-Provence, Amphith&#233;&#226;tre Cassin, 25 rue Gaston de Saporta14:00 Opening RemarksRostane Mehdi, Director, Sciences Po-AixHerv&#233; Isar, Vice-President, Aix-Marseille Universit&#233;, Director, LID2MS, Aix-en-Provence School of Law and Political Sciences (FDSP)Gilles Leydier, Deputy-Director, BABEL, Universit&#233; de Toulon14:15 Keynote SpeechesVincent Michelot, Sciences Po-Lyon, Triangle, &#8220;The Religious Vote in the Age of Micro Targeting: Obsolete or Strategic?&#8221;Gerald Fogarty, University of Virginia, &#8220;Can the Holy See Influence the Outcome of American Presidential Elections?&#8221;15:15 Break15:45 Panel I: The Catholic VoteChairman: Florian Michel, Universit&#233; Panth&#233;on-Sorbonne, Institut Pierre Renouvin et SIRICEModerator: Guy Scoffoni, Sciences Po-Aix, CHERPADouglas W. Kmiec, U.S. Ambassador (ret.), Pepperdine University, &#8220;Who Am I to Judge?&#8221; Francis trumps the Bishops and Simultaneously Makes &#8220;The Catholic Vote&#8221; Disappear and More Important.Mark J. Rozell, Dean, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University, &#8220;The Catholic Vote as an Obvious Key Vote&#8221;16:45 Break17:00 - 18:30 Debate on Some Other Denominations and Ethnic CommunitiesModeratorsJean-Marc Chouraqui, Aix-Marseille Universit&#233;, Director, IECJ andLaurent Sermet, Sciences-Po Aix, CHERPAOlivier Richomme, Universit&#233; Lyon2, Triangle : Hispanic VoteDominique Cadinot, Aix-Marseille Universit&#233;, LERMA : Muslim VoteMokhtar Ben Barka, Universit&#233; de Valenciennes, CALHISTE : Evangelical VoteLaura Hobson-Faure, Universit&#233; Paris 3, CREW : Jewish Vote23th SeptemberFacult&#233; de Droit d&#8217;Aix-en-Provence, Salle des Actes, 3 avenue Robert Schuman8:45 Welcoming Coffee9:15 Opening RemarksJean-Philippe Agresti, Vice-Dean for General Affairs, Facult&#233; de Droit et de Science Politique (FDSP), Aix-en-Provence School of Law and Political SciencesHerv&#233; Isar, Vice-President, Aix-Marseille Universit&#233;, Director, LID2MS, (FDSP)Gilles Leydier, Deputy-Director, BABEL, Universit&#233; de Toulon9:30 Panel II: The Catholic Influence on the Political DebateChairman: Dominique Avon, Universit&#233; du Maine, CERHIOModerator: Bernadette Rigal-Cellard, Universit&#233; Bordeaux-Montaigne, CLIMASAmandine Barb, Humboldt University Berlin, &#8220;Catholic Patterns in the American Left&#8221;Blandine Chelini-Pont, Aix-Marseille Universit&#233;, LID2MS , &#8220;Catholic Colonization of the Republican Elites&#8221;&#160;Marie Gayte, Universit&#233; de Toulon, BABEL, &#8220;From Strict Separatism to Public Interventionism:&#160; The Other Catholic Shift&#8221;10:45 Break11:00 - 12:30 Debate on Interreligious Political StrategiesModerator: Gregory Mose, Sciences-Po Aix, CHERPACarter Charles, Universit&#233; Bordeaux Montaigne, CLIMASJeremy Gunn, Universit&#233; internationale de RabatNeil J. Young, Independent Scholar12:30 - 13:00 ConclusionNathalie Caron, Universit&#233; Paris-Sorbonne, HDEA13:00 Buffet lunchSteering CommitteeMarie Gayte (Universit&#233; de Toulon, Babel),Blandine Chelini-Pont (Aix-Marseille Universit&#233;, LID2MS),Florian Michel (Universit&#233; Paris 1 Panth&#233;on-Sorbonne, SIRICE et Institut Pierre Renouvin),Bernadette Rigal-Cellard (Universit&#233; Bordeaux Montaigne, CLIMAS),Dominique Avon (Universit&#233; du Maine, CERHIO), Nathalie Caron (Universit&#233; Paris-Sorbonne, HDEA)