Fire Dynamics in an Emerging Deforestation Frontier in Southwestern Amazonia, Brazil

Land management and deforestation in tropical regions cause wildfires and forest degradation, leading to a loss of ecosystem services and global climate regulation. The objective of the study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial extent and patterns of burned areas in a new deforestation frontier in the Amazonas state. The methodology applied cross-referenced burned area data from 2003 to 2019 with climate, land cover, private properties and Protected Areas information and performed a series of statistical tests. The influence of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) contributed to a decreasing rainfall anomalies trend and increasing temperature anomalies trend. This process intensified the dry season and increased the extent of annual natural vegetation affected by fires, reaching a peak of 681 km2 in 2019. The results showed that the increased deforestation trend occurred mostly in public lands, mainly after the new forest code, leading to an increase in fires from 66 to 84% in 2019. The methods developed here could identify fire extent, trends, and relationship with land cover change and climate, thus pointing to priority areas for preservation. The conclusion presented that policy decisions affecting the Amazon Forest must include estimates of fire risk and impact under current and projected future climates.