An Analysis of the Potential of Hydrogen Energy Technology on Demand Side Based on a Carbon Tax: A Case Study in Japan

Hydrogen energy is considered one of the main measures of zero carbonization in energy systems, but high equipment and hydrogen costs hinder the development of hydrogen energy technology. The objectives of this study are to quantify the environmental advantages of hydrogen energy through a carbon tax and study the application potential of hydrogen energy technology in a regional distributed energy system (RDES). In this study, various building types in the smart community covered by Japan’s first hydrogen energy pipeline are used as an example. First, ten buildings of five types are selected as the research objectives. Subsequently, two comparative system models of a regional distributed hydrogen energy system (RDHES) and an RDES were established. Then, by studying the optimal RDHES and RDES configuration and combining the prediction of future downward trends of fuel cell (FC) costs and energy carbon emissions, the application effect of FC and hydrogen storage (HS) technologies on the demand side was analyzed. Finally, the adaptability of the demand-side hydrogen energy system was studied by analyzing the load characteristics of different types of buildings. The results show that, when the FC price is reduced to 1.5 times that of the internal combustion engine (ICE), the existing carbon tax system can sufficiently support the RDHES in gaining economic advantages in some regions. Notably, when the carbon emissions of the urban energy system are reduced, the RDHES demonstrates stronger anti-risk ability and has greater suitability for promotion in museums and shopping malls. The conclusions obtained in this study provide quantitative support for hydrogen energy promotion policies on the regional demand side and serve as a theoretical reference for the design and adaptability research of RDHESs.