Dynamic effect of multiple dimensions of smartness on urban sustainability: based on PVAR model

Smart cities play an important role in urban sustainability. However, the impacts on sustainability in multiple dimensions are dynamic at various stages of development. Most of the existing studies have only explored the impact on a single-dimensional sustainability, and the long-term dynamic impact has not been discussed in depth and in quantity. Taking 57 cities in China as examples, this study explores the dynamic impact of smart cities on urban environmental, economic and social sustainability, using the Panel VAR (PVAR) model after performing the unit-root tests, the selection of the optimal lag orders and the Granger causality test. Besides, further discussions on urban agglomerations are made, categorized by population density and geographical locations. The results indicate that ICT has positive effect in early stage but negative impact in the second period on social sustainability. The positive impact of industrial structure on environmental sustainability is strengthened but then weakened. The impact of industrial structure on social sustainability is negative in medium- and high-density cities but positive in low-density cities. Finally, the paper will provide policy recommendations for sustainable development in different periods from the perspective of smartness.