Modeling of Changes in Four Urban Capitals Using Up-to-Date Information Systems and Mathematical Graph-Based Simulative Models for Urban Regeneration (Kaunas Case)

There are numbers of various new infill constructions and renovations occurring in many cities annually that are based more on bottom-up initiatives by various stakeholders rather than top-down initiated plans according to a city master plan. Such infill modifications of urban structure might look small, not very numerous and insignificant at the first glance, but even small changes in a complex system such as a city can cause significant shifts in the functioning of the urban network. The presented research, developed on mathematical graph simulative modeling, including space syntax but not restricting the model to it, and employing the theory of four urban capitals by Lars Marcus, offers a way to analyze how the spatial, social, ecological and economic capitals of Kaunas will change if all the currently confirmed and publicly announced construction projects are implemented. The urban spatial network is seen as an integrator and enabler of interactions between the other three capitals. Each of the capitals is represented by quantitative data in the weighted mathematical graph: spatial capital by the perimeters of buildings accessible from a public space; social capital by the number of inhabitants; economic capital by the mean values of land prices; and ecological capital by the size of green areas and their infrastructure. All the data for modeling of changes in the capitals, except the future land prices, was based on information from implemented and planned projects. In order to predict them, a neural network tool was applied. Considering that changes in the absolute values of capitals are in essence limited by local context (e.g., number of inhabitants, market size, natural geographical conditions, and limits of spatial structure for densification), the idea of a positive synergy between urban capitals is proposed and explained in this article. All the presented simulation models are validated using independent open data as density of points of interests, etc. The results of the investigation reveal that synergy between capitals will decrease in Kaunas and that complex top-down coordination of bottom-up initiated urban projects is needed.