The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on fertility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Most countries implemented public health measures, including lockdowns, during the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been speculated that the pandemic will affect fertility, but the direction, magnitude, and mechanisms of these effects are not well understood. Using data from the national health management information system and an augmented synthetic control methodology, we examined the impact of a lockdown of Kinshasa in April 2020 on the subsequent fertility of women, which we proxy by the number of births in health facilities months after the policy was implemented. Seven months after the lockdown, we see a large increase in births in Kinshasa, as compared to control areas, which at its peak represents an additional 5000 monthly births, or a 45% increase relative to baseline. We also observe increases in complimentary maternal health services but not in other health services. Increased births were observed among women both older and younger than 20. Lockdown policies have likely affected fertility and future pandemic preparedness plans should anticipate the effects find strategies to mitigate any negative unintended effects.