Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal

Abstract. This study aims to assess wildfire hazard in northern Portugal by combining landscape-scale wildfire spread modeling and connectivity analysis to help fuel management planning. We used the Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm to run simulations under extreme (95th percentile) fire weather conditions. We assessed wildfire hazard through burn probability, fire size, conditional flame length and fire potential index wildfire descriptors. Simulated fireline intensity (FLI) using historical fire weather conditions were used to build landscape networks and assess the impact of weather severity in landscape wildfire connectivity (Directional Index of Wildfire Connectivity, DIWC). Our results showed that 27 % of the study area is likely to experience high-intensity fires and 51 % of it is susceptible to spread fires larger than 1000 ha. Furthermore, the increase in weather severity led to the increase in the extent of high-intensity fires and highly connected fuel patches, covering about 13 % of the landscape in the most severe weather. Shrublands and pine forests are the main contributors for the spread of these fires, and highly connected patches were mapped. These are candidates for targeted fuel treatments. This study contributes to improving future fuel treatment planning by integrating wildfire connectivity in wildfire management planning of fire-prone Mediterranean landscapes.
