Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Land Ecological Carrying Capacity in The National Pilot Zones for Ecological Conservation in China

Improving land ecological carrying capacity (LECC) is important in accelerating the realization of national ecological civilization construction goals. Based on the panel data of the first batch of prefecture-level cities in the National Pilot Zones for Ecological Conservation initiative from 2005 to 2019, this study analyzes the spatial–temporal pattern of LECC using the improved ecological footprint model, Theil–Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall test, and investigates the influencing factors of LECC using the geodetector. Results show that the overall land ecological carrying status of each province tends to improve but also shows remarkable interprovincial differences in development trend, with Guizhou outperforming Jiangxi and Fujian in general. The pattern of LECC security has apparent regional heterogeneity. Most prefecture-level cities have high ecological pressure and uneven spatial distribution but slowly improve overall. The influencing factor of forest land coverage and population density has strong explanatory power on the LECC, and the interactions among the factors are enhanced. The four aspects of land ecological construction should be carried out. A first step is to strengthen land ecological management and optimize the land use practices actively. Second, modern technology is used to establish real-time monitoring and early warning systems for LECC security. Third, the two key factors of forest land coverage and population density should be focused on, and enhancing their positive interaction with industrial structure and arable land utilization rate. Finally, the experience of model construction should be promoted in the Non-national Pilot Zones for Ecological Conservation in China. The aim is to enhance the effectiveness of land ecology measures further and promote the construction of national ecological civilization in China.