Predictive risks assessment of power supply interruption to oil production consumers, taking into account changes in significant factors

THE GOAL. To develop a decision-making procedure for the commissioning of equipment in the power supply system of oil production facilities in accordance with the minimum risk criterion. To substantiate the effectiveness of its practical application in the tasks of equipment repair management with the "technical condition" strategy based on a risk-oriented approach.METHODS. When solving the tasks, the following methods were used: the flowchart method for calculating the structural reliability indicators of the distribution electrical network with changes in its operational composition and technical condition of elements (equipment), the method for predicting the risks of power supply disruption in the circuit of each technological consumer, taking into account the possibility of reserving and imposing emergency recovery of the main element on the planned repair of the backup, scenario approach for determining scenarios for changing the risk of power supply failures when the operating state of the electrical network circuit changes.RESULTS. As a result of solving the problems, the values of the structural reliability indicators of the studied distribution electrical network are calculated under the most likely scenarios of changes in its operational composition and technical condition of equipment, the features of the integrated assessment of the technical condition of objects of voltage class 6 kV in their operating conditions are considered. The functions of forecasting the probabilities of power supply failures of oil production facilities are obtained depending on the integral assessment of their technical condition, which, along with the severity of the consequences of failures, make it possible to predict risks.CONCLUSION. A computational procedure has been developed that includes mathematical models and an algorithm for prioritizing equipment with a strategy "according to technical condition" when putting it into repair based on a forecast of the risks of power supply disruption to consumers. On a concrete example, the verification of calculation models and algorithm was carried out, the effectiveness of the developed computational procedure and its applicability in solving practical problems of managing repairs of electrical equipment of oil production facilities based on a risk-oriented approach was shown.