An Examination of Predictors of Attrition in Physician Assistant Programs

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text. Introduction The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between program characteristics and attrition rates. Methods Program graduation rates, attrition rates, and Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) pass rates were extracted from program websites from February-March 2021 and summarized for 2018, 2019, and 2020. Means were compared across categories of independent variables. Attrition rates and PANCE pass rates were correlated. Prerequisites and attrition rate were evaluated with multiple regression. Results Mean attrition rates varied little across years. Significant differences in mean attrition were limited to a few US Census Bureau regions or divisions. No significant correlation between the total number of prerequisite courses or total prerequisite credits and attrition existed. In 2020, mean attrition rate was statistically significantly greater when biochemistry was required (M = 6.89, SD = 7.04) than when not required (M = 4.91, SD = 4.75) and was statistically significantly lower when an additional chemistry course was required (M = 3.65, SD = 4.00) than when not required (M = 5.93, SD = 5.82). No significant predictors of attrition were found with regression. Discussion The mean attrition rates have been relatively stable from 2018–2020, suggesting that the presence of prerequisite coursework has no significant impact on attrition rates. This suggests that specific prerequisites may not predict success in a program, supporting the idea of decreasing or eliminating prerequisites. Additional studies are needed to understand the factors, including specific combinations of prerequisites, that predict completion of a physician assistant program.