Structural Transformer Improves Speed-Accuracy Trade-Off in Interactive Trajectory Prediction of Multiple Surrounding Vehicles

Fast and accurate long-term trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles (SVs) is critical to autonomous driving systems. In high-density traffic flows, strongly correlated vehicle behaviors require considering the interactions among multiple SVs when predicting their future trajectories. However, existing interactive prediction methods, most based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are suffering from slow prediction because they analyze SVs one by one and analyze trajectory sequence node by node. This paper presents a fast interactive trajectory prediction method called Structural Transformer which learns both spatial and temporal dependencies among multiple SVs in parallel. Specifically, our model first removes the internal states and loops of LSTM and replaces with a weighted self-reference mapping to realize parallel computation. Then, it embeds the relative spatial information of multiple SVs into trajectory states and reorganizes the self-reference mapping with neighbor-only interaction masks to achieve interactive prediction. Results on the NGSIM dataset show satisfyingly speed and accuracy performance on long-term trajectory prediction of multiple SVs. The longitudinal and lateral errors are reduced to 2.67m and 0.25m over 5s time horizon. The computational time of each step is only 12ms on a 2080ti GPU, which is over 4 times faster than the Structural LSTM.