The Limit of Urban Land Expansion Based on Population Growth and Economic Development: A Case Study of Shandong Province in China

As a developing country, China is experiencing rapid urbanization. With rapid economic development and urban population growth, urban land continues to expand. The urban land expansion provides development space for cities; however, the disorderly expansion of urban land also results in a significant waste of land resources. In order to effectively regulate the scale of urban land and prevent the disorderly expansion of urban land, it is necessary to conduct analyses of the characteristics and trends of urban land expansion. In the present paper, taking Shandong province as the research area, we analyze the characteristics and limits of urban land expansion. Based on the relationship between urban land expansion, economic development, and urban population growth, using urban land area, the output value of secondary and tertiary industries, and population data to construct a marginal effect model and logistic model to estimate the limit time and limit scale of urban land expansion in Shandong province from the perspectives of economic development and urban population growth. The results show that: (a) Economic development and urban population growth are the main influencing factors of urban land expansion in Shandong province. With the development of the economy and urbanization, the expansion rate of urban land in Shandong province is decreasing. (b) From the perspective of economic development, With the continuous improvement of urban land use efficiency, the demand for newly-added urban land by economic development gradually weakens. In 2033, the urban land in Shandong province will reach the expansion limit, with a limit scale of 7982 km2. (c) From the perspective of urban population growth, in 2037, the urbanization rate of Shandong province will reach 80%, the urban population will be stable, and the urban land will reach the expansion limit, with a limit scale of 9068.8 km2.