The regional economic impacts of climate change on family farming and large-scale agriculture in brazil: a computable general equilibrium approach

This paper analyzes the regional economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of crops linked to family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil. Variations in agricultural productivity estimated according to scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (IPCC, 2014), between 2021 and 2050, were used as inputs in the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) AGRO-BR. The model presents regional configuration composed of the 27 Federation Units and 42 agricultural sectors, disaggregated into family farming and large-scale agriculture sectors. The results, in terms of economic impacts, indicate that the North and Northeast regions would be negatively affected, Midwest and Southeast would suffer moderate impacts, while the South region would benefit mostly. São Paulo, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul would show economic growth, softening the negative impacts on national GDP, which would show a decline of 0,01% in both scenarios. The phenomenon could contribute to the increase of regional disparities and the deterioration of food security conditions in Brazil.