Assessing risk for butterflies in the context of climate change, demographic uncertainty, and heterogenous data sources

Ongoing declines in insect populations have led to substantial concern and calls for conservation action. However, even for relatively well-studied groups, like butterflies, information relevant to species-specific status and risk is scattered across field guides, the scientific literature, and agency reports. Consequently, attention and resources have been spent on a miniscule fraction of insect diversity, including a few well-studied butterflies. Here we bring together heterogenous sources of information for 396 butterfly species to provide the first regional assessment of butterflies for the 11 western US states. For 184 species, we use monitoring data to characterize historical and projected trends in population abundance. For another 212 species (for which monitoring data are not available, but other types of information can be collected), we use exposure to climate change, development, geographic range, host breadth and other factors to rank species for conservation concern. A phylogenetic signal is apparent, with concentrations of declining and at-risk species in the families Lycaenidae and Hesperiidae. A geographic bias exists in that many species that lack monitoring data occur in more southern states where we expect that impacts of warming and drying trends will be most severe. Legal protection is relatively uncommon among the taxa with the highest risk values: of the top 100 species, one is listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act and one is a candidate for listing. Among the many taxa not currently protected, we highlight a short list of species in decline, including Vanessa annabella, Thorybes mexicanus, Euchloe ausonides, and Pholisora catullus. Notably, many of these species have broad geographic ranges, which perhaps highlights a new era of insect conservation in which small or fragmented ranges will not be the only red flags that attract conservation attention. Open Research Statement NABA data analyzed for this paper are available at 10.5281/ zenodo.4460647; Shapiro transect data and all code will be archived on figshare.com upon acceptance for publication; code used is not novel to this project (relevant functions and packages are cited).