Next Stop: Europe? Aspirations for Secondary Migration Among Syrian Refugees in Jordan

Refugees who seek protection in neighboring countries (first safe countries of refuge) often have weak economic ties to their current place of residence. Refugees in these first safe countries also often have much to gain economically if they move on to Europe or other wealthier countries, as their refugee status opens doors that are closed to many other migrant groups. Still, far from all refugees in first safe countries aspire to move on to other locations. This article examines migration aspirations among Syrian refugees in Jordan and asks what characterizes refugees who aspire to move on to Europe. Building on theories of migration aspirations originally developed to study labor migration, it draws on a representative survey of 7,632 Syrian refugees in Jordan, conducted during the winter of 2017/2018. We show that religious and cultural preferences (preferences for living in a Muslim country and attitudes toward female labor market participation), as well as perceptions of when return to Syria will be possible, were more important in explaining variance in migration aspirations among Syrian refugees in Jordan than economic factors such as poverty or lack of jobs. These findings suggest that selection effects shape Syrian refugee migration to Europe and that refugees who go to Europe differ from those who remain in that they put less value on traditional gender roles and on living in Muslim societies. As such, the article contributes to the literature on how cultural ties and value preferences shape migration aspirations and influence the composition of migrant populations.