Unnesting the Matryoshka Doll: An Ecological Model of Probation and Parole Decision-Making in Ireland

Understanding penal decision-making has become a central concern of criminologists over recent decades. Although scholars acknowledge the complex, multi-faceted, and contextual nature of penal decision-making, many rely on a single level of analysis to study the process. There is a rich literature on the socio-political, organizational, and individual context of decision-making, but few studies consider the impact of multiple influences simultaneously. To address this gap, this article uses a multi-level framework to shed light on the systems, processes, and actors that shape penal decision-making in Ireland. It draws on two case studies, namely probation and parole, to demonstrate that macro-, meso-, micro-, and individual-level influences must be considered to achieve a comprehensive understanding. Our analysis shows that macro-level systems such as legal and political processes play an important role in shaping probation and parole decisions. At the meso-level, institutional policies, values, and culture come into play while practitioner agency operates at the micro-level to support, alter, or subvert macro- and meso-level developments. Finally, the characteristics and behavior of victims and offenders can shape decision-making at the individual level. The article concludes with a reflection on the implications of this analysis for criminological knowledge.