Mobility in informal settlements during a public lockdown: A case study in South Africa

Many African countries quickly responded to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 with lockdowns of public life. Yet, many have large numbers of dense informal settlements where infrastructure is shared, houses are small, and residents live on low incomes. These conditions make complying with curfews extraordinarily difficult. Using pedestrian motion sensors installed throughout an informal settlement in Cape Town, South Africa, we study how the lockdown affected mobility in the evenings, early mornings, and during the nights between February 14 and June 18, 2020. We find that mobility was already decreasing in March prior to the start of lockdown by 23% in paths—about half of the overall decline—and by 19% in shared courtyards. Starting with the lockdown on March 27, pedestrian activity decreased by 48% in comparison to February 2020 across paths and by 61% in shared courtyards. We notice the biggest changes on weekends, normally key leisure times, and between 6:00 pm and 9:00 pm and between 6:00 am and 8:00 am, spanning typical commute hours, though these hours continue to have the most activity indicating some people continue to commute. The results show that mobility reduction is large, though generally smaller than reductions observed in high-income countries. We find that residents of informal settlements comply with state-mandated lockdowns to the best of their ability given the circumstances, but that awareness of COVID-19 with less strict regulations prior to lockdown also led to mobility declines.