Do the Chinese Government’s Efforts to Make a Low-Carbon Industrial Transition Hinder or Promote the Economic Development? Evidence from Low-Carbon Industrial Parks Pilot Policy

Under the background of “peak carbon dioxide emissions” and “carbon neutrality” strategy, it is urgent to explore whether China’s great efforts to continuously promote industrial low-carbon transition can promote high-quality economic development. Taking the implementation of low-carbon industrial parks pilot policy (LIPPP) as a “quasi-natural experiment”, this paper tries to answer this question. The results show that the LIPPP doesn’t significantly promote the sustainable-oriented high-quality development (SHD) of the economy, but mainly boosts the value-oriented high-quality development (VHD), which is characterized by being obviously biased towards the technological progress. The policy effect is more obvious in the central region and cities with a relatively poor natural resource endowment. The mechanism analysis shows that the LIPPP promotes the VHD of the economy through the innovation incentive effect and the capital deepening effect. The technological progress related to the VHD promoted by the LIPPP has a crowding out effect on that of the SHD. In addition, regional innovation, capital deepening, and energy transformation all play a certain role in promoting the SHD, but which is overshadowed by the effect of the VHD promoted by the LIPPP. This paper provides policy implications for China to promote high-quality economic development in the process of low-carbon transition.