The prediction of SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibition with filtering by position of ligand

The paper analyzes a set of equations that adequately predict the IC50 value for SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibitors. The training set was obtained using filtering by criteria independent of prediction of target value. It included 76 compounds, and the test set included nine compounds. We used the values of energy contributions obtained in the calculation of the change of the free energy of complex by MMGBSA method and a number of characteristics of the physical and chemical properties of the inhibitors as independent variables. It is sufficient to use only seven independent variables without loss of prediction quality (Q² = 0.79; R²prediction = 0.89). The maximum error in this case does not exceed 0.92 lg(IC50) units with a full range of observed values from 1.26 to 4.95.