A combined predicting model for benign esophageal stenosis after simultaneous integrated boost in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients (GASTO1072)

Purpose We aimed to develop a combined predicting model for benign esophageal stenosis (BES) after simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) with concurrent chemotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods This study included 65 patients with EC who underwent SIB with chemotherapy. Esophageal stenosis was evaluated using esophagograms and the severity of eating disorders. Risk factors were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Radiomics features were extracted based on contrast-enhanced CT (CE-CT) before treatment. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used for feature selection and radiomics signature construction. The model’s performance was evaluated using Harrell’s concordance index and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The patients were stratified into low- and high-risk groups according to BES after SIB. The area under the curves of the clinical model, Rad-score, and the combined model were 0.751, 0.820 and 0.864, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUCs of these three models were 0.854, 0.883 and 0.917, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that there was no deviation from model fitting for the training cohort (p=0.451) and validation cohort (p=0.481). The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.864 and 0.958 for the training and validation cohort, respectively. The model combined with Rad-score and clinical factors achieved favorable prediction ability. Conclusion Definitive chemoradiotherapy could alleviate tumor-inducing esophageal stenosis but result in benign stenosis. We constructed and tested a combined predicting model for benign esophageal stenosis after SIB. The nomogram incorporating both radiomics signature and clinical prognostic factors showed favorable predictive accuracy for BES in ESCC patients who received SIB with chemotherapy. Trial registration number and date of registration Registered in www.Clinicaltrial.gov, ID: NCT01670409, August 12, 2012