Impact of High-Speed Rail on Spatial Structure in Prefecture-Level Cities: Evidence from the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, China

The impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on urban spatial structure has attracted much attention since the 1970s. It mainly realizes the change of urban spatial structure by affecting the spatial distribution of population and economy. Based on population and industry data on 29 cities in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) located in central China during 2005–2017, in this paper difference-in-difference (DID) models are utilized to explore the influence of HSR on the spatial structure of prefecture-level cities at the single/multicenter levels according to the dimensions of polycentricity and dispersion. The main conclusions are shown as: (1) HSR on the spatial structure of the CPUA has a monocentric trend, but the characteristics of different prefecture-level cities vary. Currently, agglomeration remains the dominant force of the spatial structure of the CPUA in prefecture-level cities. (2) HSR have a noticeable effect on the spatial structure of industry, whereas the influences of the HSR on the spatial structure of the population are insignificant. Its development is the result of the combined effects of many factors, including natural factors, socioeconomic factors, policies, and transportation factors. Among the controlling factors, the administrative area, economic development level, urban population, and number of research units are the critical factors having a hold on the population spatial structure of the CPUA.