Uncertainty factor in contemporary communities of the Russian Arctic: methodological approaches to research

The article introduces readers to work on a new research project “Overcoming Uncertainty in Interaction with the Physical and Social Environment in the Russian Arctic” by describing its conceptual and theoretical approach and premises as well as the steps of designing it. It opens with an analysis of the concept of risk, which is currently popular in the Arctic Social Studies and which is sometimes claimed to be the central concept in the field. It proceeds by describing the new approach, which is based on the concept of uncertainty, both natural and social, which constantly accompanies human life in the Far North. The inhabitants of the North know from experience that uncertainty cannot be ruled out, but one can be constantly prepared for it by planning one’s behavior with this factor in mind. Furthermore, one can suggest that the effects of ecological, economic and social changes are experienced by these inhabitants first and foremost as shifts in the level and kind of uncertainty. Therefore, the concept of uncertainty can replace the concept of risk in the studies of the effects of change on northern communities; in fact, “uncertainty” is preferable because its conceived nature is obvious, while in many risk studies, risk is still perceived as something objective. The main questions that a study of uncertainty can answer are: what is the role of natural and social uncertainty in the everyday life of the permanent population of the Arctic? What are the action strategies of the people in the face of uncertainty, including discursive strategies to explain the growing uncertainty? What is the role of state authorities, industrial companies, local organizations, urban and rural communities in overcoming the negative consequences of natural and social uncertainties? How are social connections and networks involved in dealing with situations of uncertainty? The paper demonstrates how these questions can be answered on the basis of anthropological fieldwork. It also uses examples from the Komi Republic (Vorkuta), Yakutia (Chersky settlement), and Magadan area to demonstrate the sort of problems the uncertainty-based approach can contribute to solving. A review of the existing literature in Russian and English is presented in order to give the reader useful insights into the field of uncertainty studies and outline the main directions of research that a study of uncertainty can take