Survival in Young Adults With Cancer Is Associated With Medicaid Expansion Through the Affordable Care Act

Medicaid expansion through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has been shown to improve insurance coverage and early diagnosis of cancer in young adults (YAs); whether these improvements translate to survival benefits remains unknown. We examined the association between Medicaid expansion under the ACA and 2-year overall survival among YAs with cancer. Using the National Cancer Database, we identified 345,413 YAs (age 18-39 years) diagnosed with cancer in 2010-2017. We applied the difference-in-differences (DD) method to estimate changes in 2-year overall survival after versus before Medicaid expansion in expansion versus nonexpansion states. Among all YAs, 2-year overall survival increased more in expansion states (90.39% pre-expansion to 91.85% postexpansion) than in nonexpansion states (88.98% pre-expansion to 90.07% postexpansion), resulting in a net increase of 0.55 percentage points (ppt; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.96). The expansion-associated survival benefit was concentrated in patients with female breast cancer (DD, 1.20 ppt; 95%CI, 0.27 to 2.12) when stratifying by cancer type and in patients with stage IV disease (DD, 2.56; 95%CI, 0.36 to 4.77) when stratifying by stage. In addition, greater survival benefit associated with Medicaid expansion was observed among racial and ethnic minoritized groups (DD, 1.01 ppt; 95% CI, 0.14 to 1.87) as compared with non-Hispanic White peers (DD, 0.41 ppt; 95% CI, –0.06 to 0.87) and among patients with a Charlson comorbidity score of ≥ 2 (DD, 6.48 ppt; 95% CI, 0.81 to 12.16) than those with a comorbidity score of 0 (DD, 0.44 ppt; 95% CI, 0.005 to 0.87). Medicaid expansion under the ACA was associated with an improvement in overall survival among YAs with cancer, with survival benefits most pronounced among patients of under-represented race and ethnicity and patients with high-risk diseases.