DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNICAL METHOD OF COMPATIBLE FORECASTING AND ENSURING READINESS TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCIES

Nowadays emergency prevention should be considered as a complex compatible process of predicting emergencies and early response to the threats of their occurrence or mitigation of possible consequences. This implements a systematic approach to this problem solving in order to prevent their occurrence or minimize possible consequences of them. The organizational and technical method of compatible forecasting and ensuring the readiness to respond to emergencies in real conditions has been developed. This method is based on a formalized mathematical model of compatible forecasting and ensuring the readiness of civil protection units to respond to emergencies. It provides for the forecasting of emergencies, possible losses caused as a result of them and the comprehensive provision of readiness of civil protection units respond to possible threats. The control algorithm for the implementation of the organizational and technical method of compatible forecasting and ensuring the readiness of responding of civil protection units to emergencies has been developed. Its use involves the implementation of a number of interconnected procedures. Firstly, the collection, formalization and analysis of information about emergencies are carried out. Then the complexity of civil protection units with armaments and equipment and their readiness, as well as the staffing of civil protection units by personnel, are taken into consideration. These procedures ensure the emergencies prediction and readiness to possible threats respond. The received information is taken into account when justifying and forming a decision on the actions of civil protection units to adequately respond and eliminate the consequences of emergencies. The correction of emergency solutions, based on the analysis of the effectiveness of response units actions, is carried out. 
Keywords: formalized mathematical model, organizational and technical method, control algorithm, emergency, losses from emergencies, level of readiness