Photovoltaic Electrification and Water Pumping Using the Concepts of Water Shortage Probability and Loss of Power Supply Probability: A Case Study

In this paper, a techno-economic investigation of a small-scale solar water pumping system combined with power generation is conducted numerically. $igation and power production for a typical small-size citrus farm located in southern Iran is simulated. The system consists of monocrystalline photovoltaic panels (CS3K-305MS, 305 W), absorbent glass material batteries (8A31DT-DEKA, 104 Wh), inverters (SMA Sunny Boy 2.0, 2000 W), and a pumping storage system. The key concepts of water shortage probability (WSP) and loss of power supply probability (LPSP) are used in conjunction with users’ tolerances and sizing of the system. A genuine MATLAB code was developed and validated before the simulations. A specific electricity consumption pattern for a rural home and a variable $igation water profile were considered. The main objective of the study is to size a system that provides both electricity for domestic use of a home as well as the energy required for running the $igation pumps with respect to investment cost, LCOE, WSP, and LPSP. The main findings of the research are that LPSP and WSP threshold tolerances can have a preponderant effect on the cost and sizing of the system. Interestingly, results reveal that there is a minimum variation of the capital expenditure (CAPEX) versus the number of PV panels. For the optimal configuration, the study indicates that shifting from an LPSP of 0% to 3% (or about ten days of potential yearly shortage) makes the LCOE drop by about 55%, while the WSP decreases by about 36%.