Long-Term Temporal Flood Predictions Made Using Convolutional Neural Networks

This study proposes a method for predicting the long-term temporal two-dimensional range and depth of flooding in all grid points by using a convolutional neural network (CNN). The deep learning model was trained using a large rainfall dataset obtained from actual flooding events, and the corresponding raster flood data computed using a physical model. Various rainfall distributions (at different times or over different accumulation periods), the mesh of the simulated area, and the topography of the simulated area were considered when evaluating the performance of two CNNs: a simple CNN and Inception CNN. Neither CNN architecture could converge when the coordinate information was not included in the input data. Adding terrain elevation information to the rainfall data already containing coordinates increased the accuracy of flood prediction. Our findings indicated that in the proposed method, real-time flooding observation data are not required for corrections, and we concluded that the method can be used for long-term flood forecasting. Our model can accurately pinpoint when the water level changes from rising to falling. Once meteorological forecasted rainfall data are obtained, a corresponding long-term forecast of the two-dimensional flooding range and depth can be obtained within seconds.