The Relative Timing of Population Growth and Land Use Change—A Case Study of North Taiwan from 1990 to 2015

Urban expansion is a form of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) that occurs globally, and population growth can be a driver of and be driven by LCLUC. Determining the cause–effect relationship is challenging because the temporal resolution of population data is limited by decadal censuses for most countries. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship and relative timing between population change and land use change based on a case study of northern Taiwan from 1990 to 2015. A unique dataset on population was acquired from annually-updated governmental-based population registers maintained at the district level, and land-use expansion data (Residential, Employment, and Transportation Corridor categories) were derived from dense time series of Landsat imagery. Linear regression was applied to understand the general relationship between population and land use and their changes. The strongest relationships were found between population and areal extent of Residential land use, and between population change and Residential areal change. Lagged correlation analysis was implemented for identifying the time lag between population growth and land use change. Most districts exhibited Residential and Employment expansion prior to population growth, especially for districts in the periphery of metropolitan areas. Conversely, the core of metropolitan areas exhibited population growth prior to Residential and Employment expansion. Residential and Employment expansion were deemed to be drivers of population change, so population change was modeled with ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression with Residential and Employment expansion in both synchronized and time lag manners. Estimated population growth was found to be the most accurate when geographic differences and time lags from urban land use expansion were both incorporated.