If we build it, will they come? Modeling of public hospital care requirements for the Australian Bragg Centre for Proton Therapy and Research.

INTRODUCTION
The Australian Bragg Centre for Proton Therapy and Research (ABCPTR) will be Australia's first proton beam therapy (PBT) facility. A model was developed to predict associated public hospital care requirements for patients during PBT, to facilitate resource planning for pediatric, adolescent and young adult (AYA), and adult public hospitals in South Australia.


METHODS
National incidence rates for specific cancer indications were obtained from the Australian Childhood Cancer Registry, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and published data. Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections were used to estimate new cases in 2025 and beyond. Radiation oncologists and pediatric oncologists from the Central Adelaide Local and Women's and Children's Health Network, along with international colleagues, provided guidance on chemotherapy utilization and inpatient admission estimates.


RESULTS
It was estimated 180 patients (40.4%) within the adult population (≥25 years) and 265 patients (59.6%) within the pediatric/AYA population (<25 years) would be eligible for PBT in 2025. There was no indication adult cancers would require concurrent outpatient/inpatient chemotherapy, in contrast with pediatric and AYA patients (59.5% and 62.8% outpatient and 18.9% and 41.9% inpatient, respectively). It was estimated 53% and 29% of pediatric and AYA patients could require inpatient admission for toxicity related to disease, concurrent chemotherapy or PBT.


CONCLUSION
Associated public hospital care requirements related to the delivery of a national PBT service were estimated. This has particular implications for planning of the new Women's and Children's hospital, co-located with the ABCPTR. True data accuracy will be determined on future data generation and analysis.