COVID-19 Impacts on United States Crawfish

Abstract This research determines the impacts of COVID-19 US on crawfish production and consumption for 2020 and 2021 using an Equilibrium Displacement Model. In the US, crawfish is one of the seafood commodities where most production is consumed by domestic consumers (7% of domestic consumption is from imports). Crawfish and rice are complementary. Therefore, the impacts of COVID-19 on crawfish consumption simultaneously influence rice production and crawfish producers and consumers. In the first year of COVID-19 (2020), the reduction in crawfish retail demand caused negative effects on final consumers and producers. However, crawfish consumption recovered significantly in the second year (2021), which could compensate for the loss in 2020. Overall, consumer and producer gains ranged from $549 to $626 million if the COVID-19 pandemic only impacted retail consumption. However, in 2021, the increase in production costs due to higher oil/diesel prices and other input prices caused the farm supply to decrease. As a result, total welfare gains ranged from $200 to $228 million. If the demand in 2021 did not increase, but the crawfish farm supply decreased, consumer and producer losses ranged from $929 to $1045 million. Overall, the total effects of COVID-19 on consumers and producers for 2020 and 2021 depend on its effects in 2021. If the demand in 2021 increased following the decrease in farm supply, consumers and producers would benefit from the shocks of COVID-19 due to higher post-COVID-19 demand.