Wheat Self-Sufficiency in Turkey: Production and Climate Change in Focus

Abstract: Due to the fact that they can be preserved for extended periods of time and are utilized in virtually all cuisines, wheat and wheat products are the most popular grains to grow and produce. Beyond the current climate change impacts, closed national borders and growing limits for import-export products throughout the pandemic phase have caused governments to question their ability to produce enough food to meet their own needs in the short term. One of the objectives of this research is to determine what variables affect wheat self-sufficiency in Türkiye, which is one of the world's major wheat suppliers, and to develop recommendations for wheat production areas in the face of climate change's predicted impacts. With respect to Türkiye, wheat self-sufficiency data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (2000 to 2020) and regional climate change projections data from the General Directorate of Meteorology for the years 2050 and 2080 were used to identify the most significant variables, as well as the relationship between those variables and self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that wheat production is the most essential component in achieving wheat self-sufficiency and that climate change has a significant impact on wheat productivity and the areas where wheat is grown. Following this, the study concludes by detailing prospective wheat production regions in current great plain areas in the context of regional climate change projections, as well as critical policies for sustainable wheat cultivation.