Cold Climate during Bud Break and Flowering and Excessive Nutrient Inputs Limit Apple Yields in Hebei Province, China

Apples have become a major source of income for smallholder farmers in Bohai Bay. However, the annual productivity of apples in the area is relatively low and the interannual yield gap varies drastically. Identifying the apple yield gap and interannual production constraints can potentially promote the sustainable development of apple production. Based on track monitoring data of 45 smallholder farmers from 2016 to 2018, the yield gap and constraint factors were determined by adopting boundary analysis methodology. The results showed that the yield potential of apples during 2016–2018 was 75, 108, and 87 t ha−1, and actual yields were 36.8, 52.3, and 35.2 t ha−1, respectively. The explainable yield gaps were 40.5, 56.9, and 55.1 t ha−1. Soil, management, and climatic factors limit apple yield improvement. Among these, low temperatures during the bud break and flowering periods can induce yield losses. Soil nutrient content and fertilizer management are also important limiting factors that have polynomial relationships with yield. Too much fertilizer and high levels of nutrients in the soil have already caused yield losses in some fields. Sound scientific guidance to help farmers adopt reasonable management techniques adapted to climate change is necessary to close the yield gap.