Quantitative Simulation of Gas Hydrate Formation and Accumulation with 3D Petroleum System Modeling in the Shenhu Area, Northern South China Sea

Gas hydrates have been considered as a new energy that could replace conventional fossil resources in the future because of their high energy density, environmental friendliness, and enormous reserves. To further analyze the potential distribution of gas hydrate stability zones (GHSZ) and the formation of a gas hydrate system in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea (SCS), a 3D petroleum simulation model (PSM) was built from 3D seismic interpretations and all available geological data. Based on the thermal calibration of the 3D model, the evolution of the GHSZ, hydrocarbon generation and migration, and the formation and accumulation of gas hydrates were simulated for the first time in the area. Thermal simulation shows that the methane source of gas hydrate originated from shallow biogenic gas and deep thermogenic gas. Most areas are dominated by shallow biogenic gas, while, only about 3% of the deep thermogenic gas derived from Enping Formation source rock and contributed to the gas hydrate formation within a few areas in the southeast. The thermogenic gas migrated vertically into the GHSZ through connecting faults, mud diapir, and/or gas chimney to form gas hydrate. The source rocks of the Wenchang Formation, a deep thermogenic gas source, began to enter the main hydrocarbon generation window at 28.4 Ma. The Enping source rock began to generate oil from 25 Ma on and gas from 16 Ma on. Since 5.3 Ma, most areas of the source rocks have generated a gas window, and only the shallower parts in the east still in the oil window, which had lasted until now. The shallow biogenic gas source rocks from the Hanjiang, Yuehai, and Wanshan formations generated gas in different periods, respectively. The Qionghai Formation began to generate hydrocarbon from 0.3 Ma and until now. Other results show that the GHSZ developed mainly during the Quaternary and Neogene (Wanshan Formation) and the GHSZ is thicker in the southern area and thinner in the northern part with a positive correlation with water depth. Starting at 11.6 Ma, the GHSZ developed in the Hanjiang Formation in the south of the Shenhu area and gradually expanded to the north to cover most of the study area at 5.3 Ma during the Yuehai Formation. From 1.8 Ma on, the GHSZ covered the entire study area. At the same time, the GHSZ in the Hanjiang Formation disappeared because of the change in temperature and pressure. At present, the GHSZ in the Yuehai Formation has disappeared, while the Quaternary and Wanshan are the two main formations for GHSZ development. The formation and distribution of gas hydrates are fundamentally controlled by the space-time coupling between the hydrocarbon generation and expulsion time and distribution of the GHSZ. The simulation results of gas hydrate accumulation and distribution were verified by drilling results and the matching rate is 84%. This is the first time that 3D simulation was successfully conducted with PSM technology in the Shenhu area and it provides important guidance for gas hydrate study in other areas of the SCS.