The post-Horde world and the union of Ivan III and Mengli-Girey I: An attempt to create a “bipolar” political system

The purpose of the study: To trace the evolution of interstate relations in Eastern Europe at the beginning of the “long 16th century” as a political system, to characterize its main trends, stages, and the factors that influenced its course of development. Research materials: Messages recorded in chronicles, embassy reports and diplomatic correspondence, legal act materials, and secondary historical literature. Results and scientific novelty of the study: The study of sources allows us to conclude that the great turmoil that engulfed in North-Eastern Rus’, Lithuania, and the Horde in the 1430s–1440s led to the final disintegration of the “Horde world,” launching the process of the formation of the “post-Horde” reality although, at first, this process was not obvious. The Tatar elite believed that the “Three Kingdoms” that had developed in the former Horde would bring around another round of strife, after which the status quo would be restored. In Vilnius, they considered it possible to return to a situation in which Lithuania was the dominant force in the region. The first step towards the restoration of “antiquity” was made by the “king” of the Horde, Sidi-Akhmet, who unleashed a huge war against the Crimea, Lithuania and Moscow in the 1440s. However, he overestimated his strength and was defeated. Coinciding with his departure from the political scene, the Horde world also became a thing of the past. The formation of a new political reality in the region turned out to be connected with the struggle between Lithuania and Moscow for Novgorod. During this confrontation, the former allies in the coalition against Sidi Akhmet disengaged. The Moscow-Crimean Union became the axis of a new “post-Horde” system. A counter to it would have been the alliance of the Great Horde and Lithuania, but Vilnius, in an effort to maintain a free hand, made a fatal mistake by refusing any close alliance with the Horde. The Horde came into conflict with Moscow and Kyrkor, counting on Lithuanian support and did not receive it. As a result, it broke up at the beginning of the 16th century. The formation of the “bipolar” post-Horde political system was not accomplished and a new stage of transformation began.