Risk, Needs, and Behavior: Moderating the Mediated Relationship Between Criminal Thinking, Institutional Infractions, and Recidivism With Time Spent in Prison

The research question addressed in the current study asked whether a risk factor would moderate the relationship between a needs factor and behavior and in so doing increase a person’s odds of reoffending. In this study, prison time was the risk factor, proactive and reactive criminal thinking the needs factors, and institutional infractions the behavior. A sample of 1,101 men (mean age = 34.64 years) released from federal prison between 2003 and 2009 participated in a study where a moderated mediation design was employed. The interaction between proactive criminal thinking and time spent in prison was found to predict more infractions in prison, which, in turn, predicted increased levels of recidivism upon release from prison. These results suggest that time spent in prison may provide a context in which proactive criminal thinking encourages antisocial behavior in prison, which then puts the individual at risk for future offending.