The Dynamical Tropopause Location as a Potential Predictor for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity


In the wake of the poorly forecast 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season, Rossby wave breaking on the 350 K isentropic surface has been linked to tropical cyclone activity measured by the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Here, ERA5 reanalysis data and HURDAT2 tropical cyclone data are used to argue that the latitude of the 2 potential vorticity unit (PVU) contour on the 360 K isentropic surface in the western North Atlantic is linked to changes in vertical wind shear and relative humidity during the month of September. A more equatorward position of the 2 PVU contour is shown to be linked to an increase in vertical wind shear and a reduction in relative humidity, as manifested in an increased ventilation index, in the tropical western North Atlantic during September. The more equatorward position is further linked to a reduction in the number of named storms, storm and hurricane days, hurricane lifetime, and number of tropical cyclones making landfall. Changes in genesis location are shown to be of importance for the changes in landfall frequency and hurricane lifetime. In summary, the 2 PVU contour latitude in the western North Atlantic can therefore potentially be used as a predictor in seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting.