NOAA’s Great Lakes Wave Prediction System: A Successful Framework for Accelerating the Transition of Innovations to Operations


The establishment of the Great Lakes Wave forecast system is an early success story inspiring the introduction of open-innovation practices at NOAA, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It shows the power of community modeling to accelerate the transition of scientific innovations to operational environmental forecasting. This paper presents an overview of wave modeling in the Great Lakes from the perspective of its societal benefits. NOAA’s operational wave modeling systems and development practices are examined, emphasizing the importance of community- and stakeholder-driven collaborative efforts to introduce innovations such as using advanced spatial grid types and physics parameterizations, leading to improved predictive skill. The success of the open-innovation approach, set in motion at NOAA by initiatives such as the Great Lakes Wave forecasting system, accelerated the transition of innovations to operations. The culture change to operational modeling efforts became part of the foundation for establishing the Unified Forecast System and, more recently, the Earth Prediction Innovation Center. Open-innovation initiatives will improve operational weather and climate forecast systems through scientific and technical innovation, reducing the devastating impacts of hazardous weather and supporting NOAA’s mission of protecting life and property and enhancing the national economy.