The Impact of Taxiway System Development Stages on Runway Capacity and Delay under Demand Volatility

This study aims to determine the impact of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) taxiway system development stages on runway capacity and delays in a single-runway airport that serves mixed operations by using a combined approach integrating the capacity-demand estimation analyses. We proposed a generic and systematic approach to taxiway development alternatives based on the ICAO guidelines rather than case-specific improvements presented in previous studies. The Samsun Çarşamba Airport (LTFH), which has the most basic level of taxiway layout, was chosen as a case study. The development stages were modeled and run in a fast-time simulation environment for different traffic scenarios based on historical data. As a result of modelling, average airborne and gate waiting delay of arrivals, queue delay of departures, taxi times, and runway occupation times were obtained. In addition, gate sensitivity and cost-benefit analyses were carried out. A triple exponential smoothing forecast was performed for different scenarios including normal, runway closures, COVID-19, and recovery from COVID-19. Practical capacities of the stages were revealed using the results of simulation and traffic demand forecasts. In addition, we evaluated the potential operational improvements of the stages by modifying a previously presented mathematical model. The proposed approach can assist airport operators in predicting the airport capacity saturation and selecting the best capacity improvement strategy for unexpected events.