Prediction of Settlement Growth in Meulaboh Urban Area (MUA) and Its Implication for Carrying Capacity

Population growth affects the competition between land uses. Inevitably, the increasing demand for natural resources causes severe damage to the urban environment. In addition, the potential of water resources can be a problem related to the supply of clean and suitable water to the community. The geological structure of the soil, disaster susceptibility, and issues with the clean water supply at the location are challenges in determining the development of residential areas in the Meulaboh Urban Area (MUA). This study aims to determine the carrying capacity of the Meulaboh urban settlement environment and the model for the distribution of settlements in the MUA. The environment’s carrying capacity is reviewed based on two aspects: the carrying capacity of settlements and water resources. In analyzing settlement modeling using MLC data from time-series images of Google Earth and Landsat 8-9 in 2011, 2016, and 2021 and using the MOLUSCE plugin on QGIS. The environmental carrying capacity assessment results show that the level of carrying capacity of settlements in the MUA is currently worth 1.69, and in 2041 it will reach a value of 1.26. While the carrying capacity of water resources in the current year is at a value of 2.8, and in 2041, it will reach a value of 2.0. Until 2041, it can still accommodate the population and meet the water needs to support population growth. However, it must still consider the disaster aspects and existing environmental constraints. So that sustainable development can be created that can balance development and the environment in the region.