Patterns of Compliance and Noncompliance During Probation: Identifying Pathways to Probation Revocation

Prior research has explored factors associated with probation outcomes, but few studies have examined pathways of noncompliance leading to probation failure. We conducted social sequence analysis to identify trajectories of compliance and noncompliance in a sample of 4,389 probationers in Monroe County, Indiana. Our findings showed full compliance was the most common probation trajectory and a single failure to appear (FTA) the most common pattern of noncompliance. In addition to a new offense during probation, repeated patterns of FTA and substance use noncompliance were associated with higher revocation rates. Recurrent patterns of technical violations, particularly for substance use, may function as an important pathway to revocation. Supervision strategies that intervene to address recurrent noncompliance may help agencies reduce revocation rates.