The Influence of Inflation, Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Reserves on Indonesian Government Bond Yield with the Bank Indonesia Rate as Moderation

The purpose of this study was to analyze and examine the effect of inflation, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves on the yield to maturity (YTM) of fixed rate series bonds denominated in rupiah with a tenor of 10 years during the period 2015 - 2021. The statistical analysis method used in the preparation of this research is quantitative with descriptive explanations. Data collection techniques were obtained from secondary data through library research. Secondary data obtained through the internet sites of Bank Indonesia, Central Statistics Agency, Ministry of Finance, and Bloomberg in the form of information, research data, and macroeconomic variables in the 2015-2021 period. The analytical method used in this study is moderated regression analysis (MRA). The study type was an explanatory study with data processing using the IBM SPSS Statistics 25 application. The study results showed that the determinant of inflation had no effect on YTM, exchange rate had a significant negative effect on YTM, foreign exchange reserves had a negative effect on YTM. The result of BI rate as moderating factor is able to moderate the relationship between both of exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves against YTM. It is believed that the BI rate has force power as a determinant of the yield to maturity of rupiah-denominated fixed rate government bonds. KEYWORDS: inflation, ex