Evaluation of the effectiveness of quick COVID-19 Severity Index and COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score in determining mortality and severity in COVID-19

Background/Aim: With the COVID-19 pandemic, the increase in the number of patients admitted to the emergency department has led to an increase in the need for intensive care and mechanical ventilation. Methods that can predict the development of serious disease will allow for a more accurate use of resources. This study was conducted to test the ability of the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score to predict serious disease development and mortality. 
Methods: This is a prospective cohort study. Among the patients admitted to the emergency department, those hospitalized due to COVID-19 were included in the study. The Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Scores of the patients were calculated, and the ability of these scores to predict serious illness and mortality was investigated. 
Results: A total of 556 patients were included in this study. Development of critical illness, described as the need for non-invasive / invasive ventilation or the need for intensive care unit admission, was found significant when the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index was above 5 and the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score showed high risk (AUC: 0.927; P < 0.001, AUC: 0.986; P < 0.001, respectively). A Quick COVID-19 Severity Index over 6 and COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score indicating high risk were found to be associated with mortality (AUC: 0.918, P < 0.001, AUC: 0.982, P < 0.001, respectively). 
Conclusion: Both the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score can be used to assess severity in COVID-19 patients in the emergency room. However, the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score was more successful in differentiating low- and high-risk patients.