Carbon Neutrality Assessment and Driving Factor Analysis of China’s Offshore Fishing Industry

The marine fishing industry has a huge carbon sink potential and is also an important source of carbon emissions. The low-carbon development of the marine fishing industry is particularly important. Based on the perspective of carbon neutrality, this study analyzed the trend of net carbon emissions, carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the offshore fishing industry in China and 11 coastal provinces from 2010 to 2019 and decomposed the driving factors of the net carbon emissions of the offshore fishing industry with the LMDI decomposition method. The results show the following: (1) China’s offshore fishing industry is in a partially carbon-neutral state. Overall, the net carbon emissions have decreased, and the carbon neutrality capacity has improved. However, the net carbon emissions have increased since 2016. From 2010 to 2019, both the carbon emissions and carbon sinks of China’s offshore fishing industry declined. Carbon emissions fluctuated at first and then declined rapidly, while carbon sinks rose slowly and then showed a significant downward trend. (2) The offshore fishing industry in coastal provinces is also in a state of partial carbon neutrality, and the trends of carbon emissions, carbon sinks and net carbon emissions in most provinces are consistent with the national trends, but there are large differences between regions. (3) For the whole country, among the driving factors of net carbon emissions in the offshore fishing industry, industrial development is the main positive driving factor, and population size is the main negative driving factor. The net carbon coefficient and energy intensity also play a certain role in driving net carbon emissions. (4) Population size is an important inhibitory factor for the net carbon emissions of the offshore fishing industry in most coastal provinces, and the driving direction of the net carbon coefficient, energy intensity and industrial development is inconsistent. Based on the above research, relevant suggestions are put forward for the green development of the marine fishing industry.