Illusion of flight? Absence, evidence and the age of winged insects


 The earliest fossils of winged insects (Pterygota) are mid-Carboniferous (latest Mississippian, 328–324 Mya), but estimates of their age based on fossil-calibrated molecular phylogenetic studies place their origin at 440–370 Mya during the Silurian or Devonian. This discrepancy would require that winged insects evaded fossilization for at least the first ~50 Myr of their history. Here, we examine the plausibility of such a gap in the fossil record, and possible explanations for it, based on comparisons with the fossil records of other arthropod groups, the distribution of first occurrence dates of pterygote families, phylogenetically informed simulations of the fossilization of Palaeozoic insects, and re-analysis of data presented by Misof and colleagues using updated fossil calibrations under a variety of prior probability settings. We do not find support for the mechanisms previously suggested to account for such an extended gap in the pterygote fossil record, including sampling bias, preservation bias, and body size. We suggest that inference of an early origin of Pterygota long prior to their first appearance in the fossil record is probably an analytical artefact of taxon sampling and choice of fossil calibration points, possibly compounded by heterogeneity in rates of sequence evolution or speciation, including radiations or ‘bursts’ during their early history.