A Scenario-Based Simulation Model for Earthwork Cost Management Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technology

Risks are involved in every aspect of earthwork projects. This paper specifically discusses the cost risk associated with the volume calculation of such projects. In the design phase, it is not possible to accurately predict the quantity per soil type underground of the site. As a result, there are uncertainties in the excavation cost that may cause cost overrun. There is a need for an innovative method to forecast, control, monitor, and manage excavation cost from design phase to completion. There is, however, an innovative method for calculating volume accurately using a digital surface model method. The digital surface model can be acquired using GPS and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). This paper proposes a simulation model which is able to analyze, control, and monitor the cost based on excavation volume so stakeholders are able to gain the actual volume quickly and accurately. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the excavation volume per soil type, resulting in a range of possible outcomes for excavation cost. The developed model was verified by applying it to an actual case project. Throughout the project, the cost was successfully monitored and maintained below the maximum expected cost. However, the final actual cost in the last simulation almost reached the maximum expected cost, indicating the need for cost monitoring. By periodically comparing the simulation result to the actual excavated volume obtained from the UAV, the proposed model can assist stakeholders in controlling the cost overrun risk and developing strategies during the earthwork life cycle.