Teaching Statistical Models for Risk Assessment

Risk analysis is used across many disciplines. Biological scientists use risk analysis to determine the chance of an adverse effect occurring. Engineers use it to assess the risk of structural failures. People in business and industry perform risk analysis to estimate profit and loss in decision making. Although there are many definitions of risk, the most accurate definition is based on probabilistic principles. To estimate risk quantitatively, a statistical model is used to describe the process and the associated risk is thereupon calculated. The underlying model and derivation of risk can lead to some non-trivial mathematical expressions. Here, we discuss challenges in teaching probabilistic risk assessment to researchers who are non-statisticians and non-mathematicians. Specific reference will be made to toxicological risk assessment.