Farmers’ perspective of COVID-19 effects on demand and supply of agricultural commodities in Nyamasheke district, Rwanda

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus. This disease disrupted the functionality of the global economy, and the agriculture sector was not spared. It is in this context that this paper aims at assessing farmers’ perceptions about the perceived shocks of COVID-19 on the side of demand and supply of agricultural commodities. The study was guided by three objectives viz to investigate the perceptions of farmers on the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for agricultural commodities, to explore the perceptions of farmers on the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the supply of agricultural commodities and to analyze the factors affecting farmers’ perceptions of COVID-19 pandemic on demand and supply of agricultural commodities in Nyamasheke district. The target population size was 6237 composed of farmers of three irrigated lands in Nyamasheke District. Yamane’s formula for the sample size determination was used to find the sample size of the respondents which was 376 and then stratified and systematic sampling procedures were employed to get 174 farmers in Kirimbi, 114 farmers in Mugonero and 88 farmers in Kamiranzovu irrigated lands, respectively. This study employed both descriptive and inferential statistical tools to analyze data. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze data on the perceptions of farmers towards COVID-19 pandemic effects on the demand and the supply for agricultural commodities while the inferential statistics were used to estimate the logit of farmers’ perceptions on COVID-19 pandemic effects of demand and supply of agricultural commodities in the area under study. Results from the descriptive statistics revealed that 326 (86.7%) farmers agreed that COVID-19 pandemic has affected the demand of agricultural commodities while 244 (64.9%) farmers confirmed that COVID-19 pandemic has affected the supply of agricultural commodities in the area under study. The output of the model revealed that the independent variables that significantly contribute to the logit of the dependent variable were farming experience and labor. During the COVID-19 pandemic, farmers encountered several challenges that disrupted their livelihoods including changes in household consumption patterns, changes in market functionalities, discontinuity of the planned training and field visits, and low number of farmers in the farms. Researchers recommend that farmers’ purchasing power should be reinforced by providing financial support to them through lowering interest rates on loans. Key words: Demand, supply, COVID-19, pandemic, agricultural commodities, binary logistic regression, Rwanda