Ensuring the sustainability of the external sector of Ukraine in the conditions of high risks

The aim of the article is in-depth empirical analysis and development of economic and mathematical tools to assess the current state of the external sector of Ukraine, and determination of the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the external sector to ensure its sustainability in the medium- and long-term perspective taking into account internal and external risks. The article analyzes how the current pandemic crisis has affected the external sector of the economy and identifies potential risks of vulnerability of our economy to external shocks. Based on the system of indicators, the current external stability of the economy is assessed, and the main channels of macroeconomic policy influence on the state of the external sector of the economy are studied. The sensitivity of the external sector of Ukraine’s economy to measures and instruments of fiscal and monetary policy analyses using the developed VAR model. In particular, the investigation revealed that excessive fiscal expansionary policies could lead to the accumulation of external imbalances, which might be adjusted by the effective monetary policy. The calculation results showed that to ensure the stability of the external sector of the economy of Ukraine, a balanced fiscal policy is required, since the state of the external sector strongly reacts to fiscal shocks. Consider the fact that the external sector of the Ukrainian economy is most sensitive to changes in the real exchange rate; fiscal policy is effective in adjusting the current account of the balance of payments only in the short-term perspective. However, in the mediumterm perspective, monetary influence on the external sector is stronger through other channels of transmission of the discount rate, except for currency.Accordingly, based on the results of the study, recommendations for the application of macroeconomic policy measures to ensure the external stability of Ukraine’s economy in the medium and long term has been developed. Further research is worth focusing on determining the factors that ensure the stability of the external sector in the conditions of military actions. 
JEL classіfіcatіon: C32, E63, F31, F32, F40