Can Pollution Regulations Enable Key Industries to Reduce CO2 Emissions?—Empirical Evidence from China, Based on Green Innovative Technology Patents and Energy Efficiency Perspectives

Under the influence of the dual policies of sustainable economic development and the national dual-carbon target, the establishment of an environmental protection department for the treatment of heavily polluting industries is imminent, and the country has launched pollution control policies and regulations to restrict the emission rights of heavily polluting industries. Therefore, this paper focuses on whether the restriction of emission rights in key industries has reduced carbon emissions. To achieve this, this paper uses panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019 and adopts a two-way fixed-effects DID model to systematically analyze the impact of the key pollution industry governance policies launched by the Ministry of Environmental Protection on CO2 emissions in 2017. And further analyze the role of variables such as green technology innovation patents and energy efficiency using this model, while parallel trend tests and placebo tests, and related policies are used to ensure the robustness of the regression results. This paper reveals that: (1) The heavy pollution industry governance policy implemented in 2017 can effectively reduce CO2 emissions in the cities of the treated group, and the effect is more significant in the year of policy implementation; (2) Green utility patents and energy-use efficiency are the effective mediating mechanisms to reduce CO2 emissions; (3) Over time, the effect of heavy pollution industry governance policy on CO2 emissions gradually decreases; (4) The reliability of the baseline regression results of this paper is proved by the use of parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and tests excluding the influence factors such as relevant policies in the same period. Therefore, the key polluting industries treatment policy launched by China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2017 under the recent dual-carbon policy development goals formulated by China, can effectively reduce carbon emissions; however, in the future economic development process, the government should give more consideration to the continuity of the policy impact and its coherence on economic development when implementing the policy.