Enhanced natural releases of mercury in response to the reduction in anthropogenic emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown by explainable machine learning

Abstract. The wide spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has significantly impacted the global human activities. Compared to numerous studies on conventional air pollutants, atmospheric mercury that has matched sources from both anthropogenic and natural emissions is rarely investigated. At a regional site in eastern China, an intensive measurement was performed, showing obvious decreases in gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) during the COVID-19 lockdown, while it was not as significant as most of the other measured air pollutants. Before the lockdown, when anthropogenic emissions dominated, GEM showed no correlation with temperature and negative correlations with wind speed and the height of the boundary layer. In contrast, GEM showed significant correlation with temperature, while the relationship between GEM and the wind speed/boundary layer disappeared during the lockdown, suggesting the enhanced natural emissions of mercury. By applying a machine learning model and the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) approach, it was found that the mercury pollution episodes before the lockdown were driven by anthropogenic
sources, while they were mainly driven by natural sources during and after
the lockdown. Source apportionment results showed that the absolute
contribution of natural surface emissions to GEM unexpectedly increased
(44 %) during the lockdown. Throughout the whole study period, a
significant negative correlation was observed between the absolute
contribution of natural and anthropogenic sources to GEM. We conclude that the natural release of mercury could be stimulated to compensate for the
significantly reduced anthropogenic GEM via the surface–air exchange in the balance of mercury.
