Where to leave fossil fuels underground? A multi-criteria analysis to identify unburnable carbon areas in the Ecuadorian Amazon region

Despite the ongoing impacts of climate change around the world, fossil fuels continue to drive the global economy. The socio-environmental impacts of oil development at the local level are widely recognized, especially in high biocultural diversity areas, highlighting the need to develop and implement effective policies that protect both biodiversity and human rights. In consideration of the estimated remaining carbon budget to limit global warming at 1.5 °C, as well as Ecuador’s past attempts at limiting carbon extraction through the Yasuni-ITT Initiative, we adopt a new framework to identify ‘unburnable carbon areas’ with the goal of eventually phasing out fossil fuels. In the Ecuadorian Amazon—one of Earth’s high-biodiversity wilderness areas and home to uncontacted indigenous populations—50 years of widespread oil production is jeopardizing tropical ecosystems. Using the Ecuadorian Amazon as a paradigmatic case study, our research explores the feasibility of implementing energy transition paths based on unburnable carbon areas through spatial multicriteria decision analysis that is based on different approaches to territory management. We modeled interactions between oil development and areas with high biocultural sensitivities using environmental, socio-cultural, and oil-related geospatial information. We found that, for all simulations, concessions that should remain unburnable are mainly located in the south-central sector of Ecuadorian Amazon, surrounding the Yasuní National Park and the intangible zone for uncontacted indigenous people, where no reserves have been identified and oil infrastructure (wells, pipelines, etc) has not been deployed. In the Northern sector, particularly along the ‘Auca’ oil road system, the eventual continuation of fossil production requires best practices to minimize environmental impacts and respect human rights. Our spatial multicriteria approach based on geographical criteria can be replicated in different place contexts to explore different scenarios for effective climate mitigation policies.