About the possibility of natural emergency risk management in mountain areas by thermal impact on the surface troposphere layer

A pressing issue in managing the risks of wildfires in mountain regions of the world is improving the management of rainfall intensity over their territories. The relative humidity of the air in which precipitation should be initiated is an important factor in the effectiveness of such techniques. In mountains, forced convection on windward slopes has led to a significant increase in rainfall. At the same time, the humidity of the air entering the downwind slopes is reduced, thus increasing the fire risk on them. It has been hypothesized that it is possible to increase the humidity of the air entering the leeward slopes of the mountains by initiating thermal convection on their windward slopes. Its fairness is confirmed by the model of mountain mossiv with parameters corresponding to the southern slope of the Ai-Petra Yayla (Main Ridge of the Crimean Mountains). The weather conditions characteristic of this area during the summer months were considered. The method of the study consisted in numerically solving complete nonlinear thermometer equations using Fire Dinamic Simulator (FDS) programs. It has been established that excitation of thermal convection on a local part of the windward slope of the mountains can cause a significant increase in the height of the dew point above the whole of this slope, which the advanced hypothesis confirms. The results show that it is possible to apply the methodology considered for the suppression of forest and other natural fires on leeward slopes of mountains.