Air Quality Scenario Analysis Application of Multi-Domain Linkage Development in the Pearl River Delta

In the background of constructing a wold-class Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Great Bay Area (GBA), the growing demand for industrial, transportation and energy development in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) will put considerable pressure on improvement of regional air quality. It is important to choose a scientific development path to achieve both economic goal and air quality improvement target. This study uses scenario analysis method to construct three “industry-transport-energy” development scenarios within the region while the improvement level of air quality is simulated and analyzed. The results show that: (1) Considering the mutual constraints and influence relations between industry, transportation and energy in scenario analysis, the “industry-transport-energy” development scenario can be established to meets the same economic goal but has different development paths. (2) Along the historical track and established policy path, concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the PRD can be reduced to 16.2 µg/m3 by 2035 as regional gross domestic product (GDP) reaching about 23.5 trillion. (3) Under the same economic goals, raising the proportion of emerging industries, freight by rail, public transport travel and non-fossil power to 95%, 10%, 73%, and 46% respectively leads to 29.6~49.2% reductions in the emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrous oxides (NOx), primary PM2.5 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) compared with those in 2017 that the regional PM2.5 concentration will further drop to 14.1 µg/m3. The results show that, under the constraints of economic development objectives, deepening structural adjustment can improve air quality, which gives advice for the PRD to choose its development path. Furthermore, this study can provide reference for the PRD to promote the transformation of industrial, transportation and energy development modes and structural adjustment under the dual objective of promoting the world-class bay area economic level and high-quality air level.