The impact of tropical Pacific SST biases on the S2S forecast skill over the North America in the UFS global coupled model


The impact of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) biases on the deterministic skill of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) coupled model Prototype 5 is evaluated during weeks 1- 4 of the forecast. The evaluation is limited to the Contiguous U. S. (CONUS) and two seasons: boreal summer (June through September) and winter (December through March). The tropical SST in the UFS model is warmer than in observations and bias patterns show seasonal dependence especially in the central and western Pacific. During boreal summer, the bias is located north of the equator whereas in winter, the bias is located in the Southern Hemisphere. A regression analysis indicates a significant relationship between these SST biases and the biases in the surface temperature and precipitation over the CONUS along with mid-troposphere large-scale circulation and North Pacific storm track activity. The SST biases affect the biases in other fields from week 1 of the forecast and the impact becomes stronger as the lead time increases to week 4. The impact of SST biases on the biases in other fields show a qualitative relationship to the patterns of forecast errors of the fields.