Spatiotemporal Evolution Trends of Urban Total Factor Carbon Efficiency under the Dual-Carbon Background

In order to grasp the development laws of carbon efficiency and help China to achieve the dual-carbon goal as soon as possible, we used the super-efficiency EBM model to calculate the total factor carbon efficiency of cities, based on panel data for 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2019. The spatiotemporal variations in carbon efficiency were analyzed using the Dagum Gini coefficient, LISA aggregation and standard deviational ellipse. The dynamic evolution trends were analyzed using kernel density estimation and the spatial Markov chain. The results showed that the overall difference in total factor carbon efficiency between the 283 cities decreased, and the difference within the three regions was greater than that between regions. The total factor carbon efficiency of the cities had a significant spatial correlation, and the spatial distribution patterns showed a centripetal aggregation from northeast to southwest. The dynamic evolution characteristics of the carbon emission intensity in different regions were quite different and the polarization of eastern and central cities was more obvious. There was a significant path dependence effect on the transition probability of total factor carbon efficiency between cities, and the carbon efficiency level of neighboring cities could affect the transition probability of the carbon efficiency of the cities. Based on the above conclusions, we also put forward relevant policy recommendations for technological changes on the energy supply side, innovative development patterns and the governance of regional policies.