The Effect of Flow-Based Market Coupling on Cross-Border Exchange Volumes and Price Convergence in Central-Western European Electricity Markets

Since 2015 available cross-border transmission capacity is determined using flowbased market coupling (FBMC) in the day-ahead electricity markets of Central Western Europe. This paper empirically estimates the effect of introducing FBMC on electricity price convergence and cross-border exchange volumes. In the month following the introduction of FBMC, hourly cross-border exchange volumes increased by 1,700 MWh/h, while price convergence between countries increased by 12.2 e/MWh. Since then, observed cross-border exchange volumes decreased to 400 MWh/h below their levels before the introduction of FBMC by the end of 2017. However, when controlling for changing market conditions in the years following the introduction of FBMC, we find that FBMC still has a persistent positive effect of around 1,000 MWh/h on hourly cross-border exchange volumes and of 2 e/MWh on price convergence. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that decreased commercial transmission capacity on critical branches might have contributed to the decline of the benefits over time. This paper is useful for policymakers, regulators, TSOs, and other stakeholders in light of ∗Ovaere: Department of Economics, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, 9000 Gent, Belgium and School of the Environment, Yale University. marten.ovaere@ugent.be. Kenis: Divison of Applied Mechanics and Energy Conversion,University of Leuven and Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO). Van den Bergh: Divison of Applied Mechanics and Energy Conversion, University of Leuven. Bruninx, Delarue: Divison of Applied Mechanics and Energy Conversion, University of Leuven and EnergyVille