A social-development model of the evolution of depressive symptoms from age 13 to 30.

This 17-year prospective study applied a social-development lens to the challenge of identifying long-term predictors of adult depressive symptoms. A diverse community sample of 171 individuals was repeatedly assessed from age 13 to age 30 using self-, parent-, and peer-report methods. As hypothesized, competence in establishing close friendships beginning in adolescence had a substantial long-term predictive relation to adult depressive symptoms at ages 27-30, even after accounting for prior depressive, anxiety, and externalizing symptoms. Intervening relationship difficulties at ages 23-26 were identified as part of pathways to depressive symptoms in the late twenties. Somewhat distinct paths by gender were also identified, but in all cases were consistent with an overall role of relationship difficulties in predicting long-term depressive symptoms. Implications both for early identification of risk as well as for potential preventive interventions are discussed.