The algorithm of planning the needs in medical care provided in out-patient conditions to elderly age groups of population using mathematical models

The purpose of the study is to develop algorithm for planning the need in medical care provided in out-patient conditions to elderly groups of population based on mathematical modeling methods. Research materials and methods. As a source of information, data on cases of medical care provided to the population of elderly age groups (60 years and older) were used. The probability of access was studied in each one-year age interval, starting from the age of 60 years. The principle of mathematical modeling was based on functional approach applying algebraic functions by least squares method (regression analysis). The final choice of mathematical model was made in favor of mathematical function having largest value of approximation coefficient. The degree of influence of analyzed variable “age” was evaluated by residual variance calculation.It is established that overall need for out-patient care is higher in women. The maximum consumption in both women and men falls on the age of 76 years. After this age, frequency of visits decreases regardless of gender. Minimal levels of need are observed in the oldest age groups (95-100 and older). The variability of the indicator is higher in men, both at the area of need increasing and at the stage of need decreasing. The existence of common mechanisms and factors underlying the formation of the need for out-patient care confirms the use of the identical functions in modeling process. The character of modeling function has no gender differences. The age dynamics is described optimally by polynomial functions. The proposed models of age dynamics of out-patient visit rates of representatives of elder age groups in more than 90% describe existing fluctuations using non-smoothed data.