Larval and adult traits coevolve in response to coastal oceanography to shape marine dispersal kernels

Dispersal emerges as an outcome of organismal traits and external forcings. However, it remains unclear how the emergent dispersal kernel evolves as a by-product of selection on the underlying traits. This question is particularly compelling in coastal marine systems where dispersal is tied to development and reproduction, and where directional currents bias larval dispersal downstream causing selection for retention. We modelled the dynamics of a metapopulation along a finite coastline using an integral projection model and adaptive dynamics to understand how asymmetric coastal currents influence the evolution of larval (pelagic larval duration) and adult (spawning frequency) life history traits, which indirectly shape the evolution of dispersal kernels. Selection induced by unidirectional currents favors the release of larvae over multiple time periods, allowing long pelagic larval durations and long-distance dispersal to be maintained in marine life cycles in situations where they were previously predicted to be selected against. Two evolutionary stable strategies emerged: one with a long pelagic larval duration and many spawning events resulting in a dispersal kernel with a larger mean and variance, and another with a short pelagic larval duration and few spawning events resulting in a dispersal kernel with a smaller mean and variance. Our theory shows how the statistics of coastal ocean flows are important agents of selection that can generate multiple, often co-occurring, evolutionary outcomes for marine life history traits that affect dispersal.