A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR FORECASTING SKILLS NEEDS IN THE LABOUR MARKET BASED ON AN AGENT-BASED APPROACH

One of the most important conditions for a well-functioning and developing economy is a balanced labour force. The mismatch between the demand for labour and its supply leads to higher unemployment, lower living standards and quality of life, an expanding shadow economy and other negative consequences for the population. At the same time, the shortage of qualified labour affects the efficiency of enterprises. Socio-economic changes and crisis phenomena have a significant impact on the formation of the labour force. In the post-reform period, the quality of labour resources has declined significantly and the link between the vocational education system and production has been severed. To assess the situation on the labour market, a forecast of the labour resources balance is used. According to the methodology approved by the Ministry of Labour of the Russian Federation, labour resource balance forecasts are based on expert estimates and extrapolation of data, which cannot provide the necessary reliability under changing conditions in the economy. Forecasting labour market demand in the short, medium and long term using appropriate economic and mathematical methods and models is becoming relevant. Analysis of existing forecasting models shows that most of them are based on forecasts of demography and agesex structure, extrapolating retrospective data on employment and unemployment in the labour market. At the same time, researchers in this direction pay little attention to the behavioural characteristics of economic agents and structural changes in the labour market that may occur in the digital transformation of the economy. A model based on the agent-based approach, which takes into account scenario options of economic and human resource policies, is proposed for forecasting labour demand. Applying this model, it is possible to forecast labour resources under different impact scenarios, such as demographic conditions, changes in socio-economic conditions, disappearance or emergence of new professions in the labour market and education, obtain a set of prospective strategies of agent behaviour, assess the degree of impact on labour resource formation and choose the most effective scenario of impact.