A degree-day model for forecasting adult phenology of Popillia japonica (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in a temperate climate

Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman), was first detected in the United States in New Jersey in 1916. The beetle gradually spread to the Midwest U.S. region, and was first confirmed in Minnesota in the late 1960’s. Popillia japonica has subsequently become a major invasive insect pest in turfgrass and several agricultural crops. As P. japonica continues to spread throughout the U.S., and other countries, it is important to develop efficient ways to monitor adult populations, and where possible, forecast the phenology of adult population dynamics. During 2019-2021, field trials were conducted to develop a degree-day model that can be used to forecast P. japonica adult phenology under Minnesota, and Midwest summer climatic conditions in. We used commercially available traps and lures to monitor adult flight phenology, specifically beetle trap-catch, along with weather data at four locations in Minnesota, to relate ambient field temperatures to population phenology. The concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), an index of both precision and accuracy, was used to develop a final degree-day model. Model development included evaluation of simple and sine-wave degree-day calculation methods, start dates between 1 Jan. and 1 April, and a range of lower (0-15 °C) and upper (20-37 °C) thresholds. The optimum model was found to be a simple degree-day calculation, using a biofix date of 1 Jan, and lower and upper thresholds of 15 and 21.7 °C, respectively, for predicting 10% beetle trap-catch. The model will aid in future integrated pest management (IPM) and regulatory strategies by providing a tool for prediction of P. japonica adult flight phenology.