The Effect of European Climate Change on Indoor Thermal Comfort and Overheating in a Public Building Designed with a Passive Approach

Dynamic building energy performance modeling is becoming increasingly important in the architectural, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry because of the sector’s significant environmental impact. For such analysis, a climate file representing a typical meteorological year (TMY) is needed, including hourly values for the most important weather-related parameters. However, TMY shows little resemblance to the future of the particular location where a building has been used for decades. Therefore, using predicted future climates during building design is unfortunately rarely practiced, potentially undermining the strategies that should be the fundamental basis of the design. To explore this question, our study compared the heating and cooling energy consumption, indoor thermal comfort, and summer overheating potential of a selected building for three distinctive European climates, in Hungary, Portugal, and Lithuania. All of them were changed according to the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario, and were examined for the present, the 2050, and the 2100 scenarios. We also tested adaptive clothing to evaluate the indoor comfort parameters. The results show a 10% increase in heating and cooling energy use for the same construction and location between 2020 and 2100. The continental climate of Budapest is the most threatened by summer overheating, with an increase of 69% for the ODH26 indicator. A more balanced warming for Lisbon was found (23%), and moderate changes for the city of Kaunas (a 153% increase from a very low baseline).