A study of the nonlinear dynamic interrelationship between CO2 emissions and logistics sector output growth

Using provincial panel data spanning from 1995 to 2020, this paper examines the nonlinear interrelationship between logistics carbon dioxide emissions and output growth. For this purpose, we conduct a nonlinear co-integration test in heterogeneous panels; our results suggests a long-run relationship between these two variables. In contrast, adjustment to the equilibrium is inherently nonlinear. Furthermore, we estimate a panel smooth transition vector error correction model. Our major contributions, as we know, are the first study confirming the existence of a dynamic mechanism between logistics carbon dioxide emissions and regional output growth and the Environmental Kuznets Curve in China. Last, the interaction between logistics carbon dioxide emissions and regional output growth varies over the output growth in Chinese provinces and autonomous regions. Our results highlight the importance of considering possible nonlinearities in analyzing output-carbon dioxide emissions causality nexus and designing energy policies.