Shocks, cycles and adjustments: The case of China's Hog Market under external shocks

China's hog market has faced the challenge of several external shocks, which arise from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, African Swine Fever (ASF) and related global trade uncertainties. This article develops a shocks, cycles and adjustments (SCA) model to evaluate the dynamic impact of different shock scenarios. The SCA model contributes to the existing toolbox for impact evaluation in commodity markets and provides insights into the timing of impact dynamics at refined time intervals. The SCA model is applied to evaluate five sets of shock scenarios, which include a demand shock, a corn price increase, pork import restrictions, a second wave of ASF, and a combination of these shocks. Simulation results demonstrate the reaction of the hog cycle to different shocks with quantitive outcomes. Based on the simulation results, we find that production and economic adjustment lags generate constant and predictable hog cycles, while the external shocks lead hog cycles to be irregular with varying phase and amplitude. [EconLit Citations: Q10, Q11]. © 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC.