The Long-Term Growth Prospects of the People’s Republic of China

This paper examines the economic growth prospects of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). To increase potential growth, it suggests reforms in four areas—labor, education and training, capital, and productivity. Economic growth in the PRC has moderated over the past decade, a trend exacerbated by the pandemic. This paper estimates the level of economic growth to which the country should be able to return after the pandemic. More broadly, it looks at the PRC’s long-term growth prospects given its rapidly aging society, a high dependence of growth on investment, and a changed international environment.