Climate Change Impacts on Gaseous Hydrogen (H2) Potential Produced by Photovoltaic Electrolysis for Stand-Alone or Grid Applications in Europe

The EU’s hydrogen strategy consists of studying the potential for renewable hydrogen to help decarbonize the EU in a cost-effective way. Today, hydrogen accounts for less than 2% of Europe’s energy consumption. It is primarily used to produce chemical products. However, 96% of this hydrogen production is through natural gas, leading to significant amounts of CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigated PV electrolysis H2 gas (noted H2(g)) production for mapping this resource at Europe’s scale. The Cordex/Copernicus RCPs scenarios allow for evaluating the impact of climate changes on the H2-produced mass and the equivalent energy, according to both extreme RCPs scenarios. New linear regressions are investigated to study the great dependence in H2(g) produced masses (kg·yr−1) and equivalent energies (MWh·yr−1) for European countries. Computational scenarios are investigated from a reference year (2005) to the end of the century (2100) by steps of 5 years. According to RCPs 2.6 (favorable)/8.5 (extreme), 31.7% and 77.4% of Europe’s area presents a decrease of H2(g)-produced masses between 2005 and 2100. For the unfavorable scenario (8.5), only a few regions located in the northeast of France, Germany, Austria, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece present a positive balance in H2(g) production for supplying remote houses or smart grids in electricity and heat energy.