Impact of Thermal Forcing over the Southeast of the Tibetan Plateau on Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Affecting Guangxi during Boreal Summer

Tropical cyclones entering coastal areas adversely affect southern China. However, changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones affecting the west of southern China remain unclear. Our study reveals the possible impact of the thermal forcing anomaly over the southeast Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Guangxi formed within the west of 120° E during boreal summer. Further analysis indicates that the cooling over the southeast TP is accompanied by local descending motions over southeastern TP and compensating ascending motions over eastern Indochina Peninsula and results in a reduced 850–200 hPa vertical wind shear over the north of 15° N in South China Sea (SCS), which is conducive to the westward development of tropical cyclones and favorable conditions for the formation of TCs affecting Guangxi over the SCS. Finally, the results from a linear baroclinic model experiment also verify that the changes in the 850–200 hPa vertical wind shear over southern SCS and compensating vertical motions over eastern Indochina Peninsula are associated with the thermal forcing anomaly over the southeast TP. Our results imply that in summer the thermal forcing anomaly over TP should be emphasized when interpreting and predicting the frequency of tropical cyclones affecting local areas in southern China.