Return-to-Manual Performance can be Predicted Before Automation Fails

This study aimed to examine operator state variables (workload, fatigue, and trust in automation) that may predict return-to-manual (RTM) performance when automation fails in simulated air traffic control. Prior research has largely focused on triggering adaptive automation based on reactive indicators of performance degradation or operator strain. A more direct and effective approach may be to proactively engage/disengage automation based on predicted operator RTM performance (conflict detection accuracy and response time), which requires analyses of within-person effects. Participants accepted and handed-off aircraft from their sector and were assisted by imperfect conflict detection/resolution automation. To avoid aircraft conflicts, participants were required to intervene when automation failed to detect a conflict. Participants periodically rated their workload, fatigue and trust in automation. For participants with the same or higher average trust than the sample average, an increase in their trust (relative to their own average) slowed their subsequent RTM response time. For participants with lower average fatigue than the sample average, an increase in their fatigue (relative to own average) improved their subsequent RTM response time. There was no effect of workload on RTM performance. RTM performance degraded as trust in automation increased relative to participants’ own average, but only for individuals with average or high levels of trust. Study outcomes indicate a potential for future adaptive automation systems to detect vulnerable operator states in order to predict subsequent RTM performance decrements.