Construction and validation of a prognostic model for gastrointestinal stromal tumors based on copy number alterations and clinicopathological characteristics

Background The increasing incidence of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) has led to the discovery of more novel prognostic markers. We aim to establish an unsupervised prognostic model for the early prediction of the prognosis of future patients with GISTs and to guide clinical treatment. Methods We downloaded the GISTs dataset through the cBioPortal website. We extracted clinical information and pathological information, including the microsatellite instability (MSI) score, fraction genome altered (FGA) score, tumor mutational burden (TMB), and copy number alteration burden (CNAB), of patients with GISTs. For survival analysis, we used univariate Cox regression to analyze the contribution of each factor to prognosis and calculated a hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). For clustering groupings, we used the t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) method for data dimensionality reduction. Subsequently, the k-means method was used for clustering analysis. Results A total of 395 individuals were included in the study. After dimensionality reduction with t-SNE, all patients were divided into two subgroups. Cluster 1 had worse OS than cluster 2 (HR=3.45, 95% CI, 2.22-5.56, P<0.001). The median MSI score of cluster 1 was 1.09, and the median MSI score of cluster 2 was 0.24, which were significantly different (P<0.001). The FGA score of cluster 1 was 0.28, which was higher than that of cluster 2 (P<0.001). In addition, both the TMB and CNAB of cluster 1 were higher than those of cluster 2, and the P values were less than 0.001. Conclusion Based on the CNA of GISTs, patients can be divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. The high-risk group had a higher MSI score, FGA score, TMB and CNAB than the low-risk group. In addition, we established a prognostic nomogram based on the CNA and clinicopathological characteristics of patients with GISTs.