An In-Depth Assessment of the Drivers Changing China’s Crop Production Using an LMDI Decomposition Approach

Over the last decades, growing crop production across China has had far-reaching consequences for both the environment and human welfare. One of the emerging questions is “how to meet the growing food demand in China?” In essence, the consensus is that the best way forward would be to increase crop yield rather than further extend the current cropland area. However, assessing progress in crop production is challenging as it is driven by multiple factors. To date, there are no studies to determine how multiple factors affect the crop production increase, considering both intensive farming (using yield and multiple cropping index) and large-scale farming (using mean parcel size and number of parcels). Using the Logarithmic-Mean-Divisia-Index (LMDI) decomposition method combined with statistical data and land cover data (GlobeLand30), we assess the contribution of intensive farming and large-scale farming changes to crop production dynamics at the national and county scale. Despite a negative contribution from MPS (mean parcel size, ), national crop production increased due to positive contributions from yield (), MCI (multiple cropping index, ), as well as NP (number of parcels, ). This allowed China to meet the growing national crop demand. We further find that large differences across regions persist over time. For most counties, the increase in crop production is a consequence of improved yields. However, in the North China Plain, NP is another important factor leading to crop production improvement. On the other hand, regions witnessing a decrease in crop production (e.g., the southeast coastal area of China) were characterized by a remarkable decrease in yield and MCI. Our detailed analyses of crop production provide accurate estimates and therefore can guide policymakers in addressing food security issues. Specifically, besides stabilizing yield and maintaining the total NP, it would be advantageous for crop production to increase the mean parcel size and MCI through land consolidation and financial assistance for land transfer and advanced agricultural infrastructure.