Vegetation Shift of Juniperus macropoda Boisser Forest in Response to Climate Change in North-Western Himalayas, India

The cold desert ecosystem of the north-western Himalaya in India’s is considered to be the most vulnerable region to climate change. In this region, Juniperus macropoda Boisser grows across an altitudinal gradient and is highly sensitive to biotic, physiographic, and climatic factors. Keeping this in view, the present study aimed at ascertaining the response of Juniperus macropoda to changing climatic conditions. To achieve the target of the study, the area (elevation ranges from 3525 to 4150 m asl) was divided into thirteen elevation ranges in the cold desert of Lahaul valley (Himachal Pradesh). The NDVI change detection map from 1994–2017 revealed an increase in the area under the vegetation in the NDVI range of 0–0.15 (240%) and 0.15–0.30 (32%), which indicated the emergence of grasses and new recruits in the area. An increase in the minimum and maximum temperature during monsoon and post-monsoon season correlated positively with the emergence of the recruits in a significant manner. Furthermore, a decline in rainfall during the monsoon period was also recorded which bears a significant positive correlation with the establishment of recruits. However, the increase in the precipitation during winter resulted in a positive effect on the emergence of recruits. The biophysical parameters, like average height, diameter as well as the average age of the dominant trees showed a declining trend with the elevation. However, the age histogram revealed that the majority of the establishment occurred around 1900 and between 1975–2010. The tree ring analysis of J. macropoda revealed that the species is shifting upward at a rate of 3.91 m year−1. Besides this, the area is experiencing the impact of climate change resulting in an increase in the area under vegetation and migration towards the higher elevation, and many species of lichens were also found to invade the bare rock.