Alpine Shrubification: Juniper Encroachment into Tundra in the Ural Mountains

Snow cover is one of the most important factors affecting the regeneration and growth of shrubs in cold arctic and alpine ecosystems. In many of these cold regions, climate change in the last century is manifested not only in a rapid rise of temperature, but also in an increase in winter precipitation. For instance, in the Ural Mountains, winter turned warmer and more humid during the past century, leading to higher snow accumulation. We investigated how the change trends in the cold season (November to March) climate conditions affected the recruitment of the shrub Juniperus sibirica Burgsd., the most widespread shrub conifer in mountains of this region where it is dominant in treeless areas. Specifically, we considered seven sites located in the Southern and Northern Urals that are subjected to lower and higher continentality, respectively. We assessed how juniper recruitment changed along altitudinal gradients going from the open forest to the alpine tundra and passing by the transition zone. We found that juniper shrubs recruited at higher elevations during the 20th century in most sites, with a rapid shrub encroachment into alpine tundra (shrubification) after the 1990s. This process was especially intensive in the last decades at the uppermost parts of convex slopes where the snowpack is shallow. We found positive associations between juniper recruitment and cold-season precipitation or temperature in the Northern and Southern Urals, respectively. Shrubification is following upward treeline shifts in the Southern Urals. Our findings indicate that juniper shrubs will tend to colonize sites with low snowpack depth if winter conditions keep warm and wet enough and the snowpack allows the effective protection of shrubs.