Flattening the Curve is Imperative: When China Relaxes the Dynamic Zero COVID-19 Policy

Since December 7, 2022, China relaxed the strict dynamic zero COVID-19 policy. Here we quantitatively analyze its potential impacts on COVID-19 trend with the epidemiological model SUVQC using the population and parameter settings of Beijing as a case. Our results indicate that if non-pharmacological interventions are completely ceased, the ICU bed demand number will peak in 26 days at ~23.88 thousand, which is 18 times the total number of ICU beds in Beijing. COVID-19 Omicron will cause 31,817 deaths in Beijing in the first year. We urge that the flattening curve strategy is necessary to slow down the infection and avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.