Machine learning seizure prediction: One problematic but accepted practice


 
 Objective. Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders and can have a devastating effect on a person's quality of life. As such, the search for markers which indicate an upcoming seizure is a critically important area of research which would allow either on-demand treatment or early warning for people suffering with these disorders. There is a growing body of work which uses machine learning methods to detect pre-seizure biomarkers from electroencephalography (EEG), however the high prediction rates published do not translate into the clinical setting. Our objective is to investigate a potential reason for this. Approach. We conduct an empirical study of a commonly used data labelling method for EEG seizure prediction which relies on labelling small windows of EEG data in temporal groups then selecting randomly from those windows to validate results. We investigate a confound for this approach for seizure prediction and demonstrate the ease at which it can be inadvertently learned by a machine learning system. Main results.We find that non-seizure signals can create decision surfaces for machine learning approaches which can result in false high prediction accuracy on validation datasets. We prove this by training an artificial neural network to learn fake seizures (fully decoupled from biology) in real EEG. Significance. The significance of our findings is that many existing works may be reporting results based on this confound and that future work should adhere to stricter requirements in mitigating this confound. The problematic, but commonly accepted approach in the literature for seizure prediction labelling is potentially preventing real advances in developing solutions for these sufferers. By adhering to the guidelines in this paper future work in machine learning seizure prediction is more likely to be clinically relevant.