Decoupling Effect, Driving Factors and Prediction Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction and Product Supply Guarantee in China

Under the requirements for high-quality development, the coordinated promotion of agricultural carbon emission reduction and agricultural product supply guarantee in China is crucial to hold the bottom line of national food security as well as promote agricultural green transformation and development. Based on such situation, from the perspective of decoupling effect, driving factors and the prediction, this paper uses panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, takes the carbon emission formula, the “two-stage rolling” Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficient method, the spatial Durbin model and the Grey model optimized by the Simpson formula background value to quantify the relationship between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural product supply, analyze the driving effects of agricultural carbon emission reduction and agricultural product increase, and predict the decoupling state of agricultural carbon emission and agricultural product supply between 2021 and 2025, so as to draw a scientific basis that is conducive to the coordinated promotion of agricultural carbon emission reduction and agricultural product supply guarantee in China. The result shows that: (1) The decoupling state of agricultural carbon emission and agricultural product supply shows generally “the eastern and central regions are better than the western regions” in China, and the decoupling state has improved significantly year by year. Green technology innovation (GTI), agricultural carbon emission and agricultural product supply in China have significant spatial differences and spatial auto-correlation, which shows the spatial factors cannot be ignored; (2) Green technology innovation and agricultural carbon emission in local and adjacent provinces are both in an inverted “U-shaped” relationship, meaning that high level green technology innovation is an effective way to reduce carbon emission. Though green technology innovation and agricultural product supply in local and adjacent provinces are both in a positive “U-shaped” relationship, but the minimum value of lnGTI is greater than 0, which indicates that current level of green technology has been raised to a certain level, effectively improving the output of agricultural products; (3) Compared with those in 2016–2020 in China, it is projected that in 2021–2025 the decoupling state of agricultural carbon emission and agricultural product supply will be improved significantly, and the provinces below the optimal state will leave the extremely unreasonable strong negative decoupling state, mainly show recessionary decoupling and recessionary connection. Our findings provide Chinese decision-makers with corresponding references to formulate accountable and scientific regional policies in order to achieve high-quality development of agriculture and realize “Double carbon” target in China.