Development prospects for the Ukrainian road market for cargo transport - SWOT / TOWS analysis

The article presents a strategic analysis of the Ukrainian road haulage market for the pre-war period and in the perspective of its end, ie for the post-war period. For this purpose, the analysis covered areas such as the market itself, mainly demand and rolling stock, as well as its environment, here national and international legal regulations and infrastructure. However, for the post-war period, the potential scale of damage was taken into account, as well as the declared material aid from other countries, as well as the prospects for Ukraine's accession to the European Union. This allowed to outline possible changes in the functioning of the Ukrainian road transport market. On this basis, the SWOT / TOWS analysis was performed for both analyzed periods. The analysis was performed using the SWOT / TOWS methodology in a quantitative version, i.e. including the number, assessment and weight of individual strategic factors and their interactions. This version of the analyzes made it possible to determine the directions of strategic development of the market in question for both analyzed periods. The basic results of the analyzes showed that before the war, the Ukrainian road haulage market was dominated by threats, while after the war, opportunities will be the leading factors. In this way, the war may nevertheless positively affect the external environment of the market in question. On the other hand, the market itself was and will remain internally characterized by weaknesses, although their intensity will decrease. After the war, its weaknesses should still turn out to be the key factors for the Ukrainian road haulage market, but not threats, but opportunities. Such a balance of forces, this is the influence of interactions between weaknesses and opportunities, indicates a change of strategy from mini-mini to mini-maxi, i.e. from a defensive strategy to a competitive one. The Ukrainian road haulage market after the war will therefore be a better environment for conducting business related to transport than before the war. Weaknesses will result from the consequences of military operations (one-way transport, from west to east, and disproportions in the transport work performed and the weight of transported loads between regions), as well as pre-war negligence (high average age of the rolling stock).