Sex-specific trajectories of insulin resistance markers and reduced renal function during 18 years of follow-up; TLGS


 
 
 To investigate the association between the dynamic course of insulin resistance and chronic kidney disease (CKD).
 
 
 
 In a longitudinal population-based Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 3071 eligible participants aged ≥20 years were followed for 18 years at three-year intervals. HOMA-IR and clinical surrogate markers of insulin resistance, including triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), visceral adiposity index (VAI), and lipid accumulation product (LAP), were calculated. Using latent variable mixture modeling, sex-specific trajectories were plotted for each insulin resistance marker. Trajectory group association of the insulin resistance markers with CKD was determined using the multivariate cox proportional hazards regression model.
 
 
 
 For HOMA-IR, two distinct trajectory patterns (stable and increasing), and for TyG, VAI, and LAP, three trajectories (low, moderate, high) were identified. The participants with increasing HOMA-IR trajectory had a significantly increased risk of CKD in men (HR: 1.72, 95%CI: 1.06-2.79) and women (HR: 1.37, 95%CI: 1.00-1.89) after adjusting confounding variables. The high TyG and VAI trajectory classes were associated with a higher risk of CKD than the low TyG and VAI trajectory classes in both men (TyG: HR:1.97, 95%CI: 1.12-3.46; VAI: HR:1.66, 95%CI:1.06-2.62) and women (TyG: HR:1.50, 95%CI:1.06-2.12; VAI: HR:1.66, 95%CI:1.20-2.31). In contrast, the High LAP (HR: 3.38, 95%CI: 2.08-5.48) trajectory was associated with incident CKD only in women.
 
 
 
 An increasing trend of HOMA-IR is associated with a higher risk of CKD in men and women. Among clinical insulin resistance surrogate markers, abnormal trajectory patterns of LAP in women and TyG and VAI in both sexes are associated with a higher risk of CKD.
