Localized urban canopy model and improved anthropogenic heat parameters in the weather research and forecasting model: Simulation of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event over the pearl river delta urban agglomeration

Warm-sector heavy rainfall in South China is a frequent type of precipitation in summer in the Pearl River Delta region. The complexity of the mechanisms involved in the triggering of convection, especially the effects of urbanization, has greatly increased the uncertainty of numerical simulations of warm-sector heavy rainfall. In this study, five new surface parameters with five new anthropogenic heat (AH) parameters were constructed and coupled with the urban canopy model (UCM) of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, version 4.1, based on the local climate zone system over the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA). Taking a typical warm-sector heavy rainfall process that occurred in the PRDUA on 20 April 2019 as an example, five groups of experiments involving different schemes were compared and analyzed, revealing that the precipitation simulated using the localized UCM with the new AH parameters was the best (closest to observations). The localized UCM successfully simulated the increase in 2 m temperature and sensible heat flux and the resultant thermal forcing in urban areas, which promoted the convergence of low-level southerly winds with water vapor and the lifting of the lower-layer warm and humid water vapor to the upper layers in the urban center, leading to a significant increase of precipitation. The improved AH parameters enhanced the anthropogenic heat and its vertical conduction in urban areas, but contributed only marginally to the convergence of 10 m winds. Compared with observations from wind profile radar, it was found that the localized UCM enhanced the accuracy of the simulated horizontal wind field convergence at upper and lower levels, while the improved AH parameters enhanced the accuracy of the simulated low-level jet intensity and vertical movement, which are important drivers for the spatial variation in warm-sector heavy rainfall over the PRDUA. The current findings will be helpful for improving the model skill in simulating warm-sector heavy rainfall over high-density urban areas, as well as enhancing understanding of the impact mechanism of urbanization on the occurrence and development of warm-sector heavy rainfall.