Understanding and predicting the determinants of blockchain technology adoption and SMEs' performance

PurposeThe success of SMEs' financial and market performance (MAP) depends on the firms' level of blockchain technology adoption (BCA) and identifying the crucial antecedents that influence SMEs' adoption. Therefore, this research attempts to develop an integrated model to understand and predict the determinants of BCA and its effect on SMEs' performance. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue.Design/methodology/approachThe theoretical foundations are the technology–organization –environment (TOE) framework and the resource-based view (RBV) perspective. The authors distributed a survey to SMEs in South Africa and received 311 responses. The covariance-based structural equation modeling (CB-SEM) followed by the artificial neural network (ANN) technique was used for the data analysis.FindingsThe SEM results showed that SMEs' relative advantage, compatibility, top management support (TMS), organizational readiness (ORD), competitive pressures (COP), external support, regulations and legislation significantly influence SMEs' BCA. However, complexity negatively impacts SMEs' BCA. The analysis results also revealed that SMEs' BCA significantly influences the financial performance of the firms, followed by MAP. Furthermore, model determinants were input to an ANN modeling. The ANN results showed that TMS is the most critical predictor of SMEs' BCA, followed by ORD, COP, external support, and regulations and legislation.Practical implicationsThe results provide valuable information for SMEs when maneuvering their adoption strategies in the scope of blockchain technology. Additionally, from the perspective of an emerging market, the study has successfully contributed the TOE framework and the RBV.Originality/valueThis study is the first work to explore the determinants of BCA in the context of SMEs from a developing country. This paper is also one pioneer in attempts to develop a causal and predictive statistical model for predicting the determinants of BCA in SMEs' performance.