Phylogeographic reconstruction of the emergence and spread of Powassan virus in the northeastern United States

Powassan virus is an emerging tick-borne virus of concern for public health, but very little is known about its transmission patterns and ecology. Here, we expanded the genomic dataset by sequencing 279 Powassan viruses isolated from Ixodes scapularis ticks from the northeastern United States. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographic reconstructions revealed that Powassan virus lineage II was likely introduced or emerged from a relict population in the Northeast between 1940-1975. Sequences strongly clustered by sampling location, suggesting a highly focal geographical distribution. Our analyses further indicated that Powassan virus lineage II emerged in the northeastern U.S. mostly following a south to north pattern, with a weighted lineage dispersal velocity of ~3 km/year. Since the emergence in the Northeast, we found an overall increase in the effective population size of Powassan virus lineage II, but with growth stagnating during recent years. The cascading effect of population expansion of white-tailed deer and I. scapularis populations likely facilitated the emergence of Powassan virus in the northeastern U.S. Significance statement Our work provides important fundamental insights in the local transmission dynamics of an emerging tick-borne pathogen of public health concern. Without the availability of vaccines or specific treatments, prevention of Powassan virus infection is dependent on education and control. We identified that Powassan virus is maintained in highly localized transmission foci that have been maintained for several years, without introductions of new virus clades. This provides both opportunities for better education about high risk areas and effective targeted control in Powassan virus foci with a long lasting impact.