Temperature-based Dengue Outbreaks Modelling with Exogenous Variables

. Dengue fever is an endemic disease, present in tropical and subtropical regions, transmitted by the Aedes Aegypti mosquito vector. It has recently appeared in non-tropical regions with dry weather. This represents a setback for advanced temperature-based reference models, since mosquitos reproductive cycle does not necessarily match with the outbreaks. This situation indicates that other variables are also involved in epidemic outbreaks. In this work we propose to include a component that capture this process, whether entomological, environmental or related to population mobility, and include it to the reference model by adding a Gaussian function to the formulation of humans ( β h ) and vectors ( β v ) transmission rate. The parameters to be adjusted for this function were evaluated by a probabilistic model selection experiment. The parameters for this function are u , σ and k . The results indicate that, our model outperforms the reference model, and that additional information about outbreaks can be obtained from the new parameters. .