QUANTIFYING THE RISK OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO WATER RESOURCES IN THE VU GIA - THU BON RIVER BASIN, CENTRAL VIET NAM

Climate change is posing serious threat on many different aspects of lives, espcially water resource. Vu Gia - Thu Bon is one of the largest river basins located in the central region of Viet Nam, which is ranked as one of the areas severely affected by climate change. This study aims to assess the level of risk to surface water resources in Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basin in the context of climate change in 03 time slices: The baseline period 1986 - 2005 and the two future periods 2016 - 2035 and 2046 - 2065 under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using IPCC approach. The results show that the level of risk to surface water resources in both periods of the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is medium. In which, the Hazard index is at a high level; the Exposure is low; and the Vulnerability is at a medium level. Moreover, the indexes in both future periods of the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are larger compared to the baseline period. These results are expected to contribute to the basis for decision-making and timely response solutions for relevant sectors and localities in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basin.