Provincial Carbon Emission Allocation and Efficiency in China Based on Carbon Peak Targets

As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China is facing great pressure to reduce emissions. With the country’s proposed timeline for carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, a new goal has been established for China’s low-carbon development. Based on the improved equal proportion allocation method, this paper allocates the overall carbon emission control goal for 2025 among 30 provinces and cities, based on 2015 figures, and measures and studies the country’s carbon emission allocation efficiency on this basis. The results show that Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Inner Mongolia need to increase their emission reduction capacity, while Jiangxi, Guizhou, Gansu, Qinghai, Hainan and Guangxi have relatively low emission reduction targets. Based on this allocation scheme, more provinces can reduce carbon emissions by increasing their efficiency with up-to-date technology, and a new vision for national allocation that is more easily accepted by all provinces and regions can be developed. Based on the research results of this paper, each province and region can choose its own low-carbon economic development path within the constraints of China’s carbon intensity emission reduction targets, without compromising its own economic development characteristics.