The value of intravoxel incoherent motion model-based diffusion-weighted imaging for predicting long-term outcomes in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value for survival of parameters derived from intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging (IVIM-DWI) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Materials Baseline IVIM-DWI was performed on 97 newly diagnosed NPC patients in this prospective study. The relationships between the pretreatment IVIM-DWI parametric values (apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), D, D*, and f) of the primary tumors and the patients’ 3-year survival were analyzed in 97 NPC patients who received chemoradiotherapy. The cutoff values of IVIM parameters for local relapse-free survival (LRFS) were identified by a non-parametric log-rank test. The local-regional relapse-free survival (LRRFS), LRFS, regional relapse-free survival (RRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) rates were calculated by using the Kaplan–Meier method. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore the independent predictors for prognosis. Results There were 97 participants (mean age, 48.4 ± 10.5 years; 65 men) analyzed. Non-parametric log-rank test results showed that the optimal cutoff values of ADC, D, D*, and f were 0.897 × 10−3 mm2/s, 0.699 × 10−3 mm2/s, 8.71 × 10−3 mm2/s, and 0.198%, respectively. According to the univariable analysis, the higher ADC group demonstrated significantly higher OS rates than the low ADC group (p = 0.036), the higher D group showed significantly higher LRFS and OS rates than the low D group (p = 0.028 and p = 0.017, respectively), and the higher D* group exhibited significantly higher LRFS and OS rates than the lower D* group (p = 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). Multivariable analyses indicated that ADC and D were the independent prognostic factors for LRFS (p = 0.041 and p = 0.037, respectively), D was an independent prognostic factor for LRRFS (p = 0.045), D* and f were the independent prognostic factors for OS (p = 0.019 and 0.029, respectively), and f acted was an independent prognostic factor for DMFS (p = 0.020). Conclusions Baseline IVIM-DWI perfusion parameters ADC and D, together with diffusion parameter D*, could act as useful factors for predicting long-term outcomes and selecting high-risk patients with NPC.