The impact of China’s carbon neutrality target on its energy consumption structure by 2050

ABSTRACT Promoting energy transformation is a major issue in achieving China’s carbon neutrality target. The changes in China’s energy consumption stemming from the policies related to this issue were simulated based on the energy policy simulation model. The results show the following. (1) Implementing related policies will significantly decrease total primary energy consumption, and non-fossil energy will be China’s main source of energy consumption by 2050. (2) The energy consumption corresponding to buildings, transportation, and industry will be electricity-led by 2050, and electricity will mainly be generated with non-fossil energy sources. (3) In 2030, China will reach a carbon peak, and non-fossil energy will account for 43% of the country’s primary energy consumption, comprising electrical (73%), solar (11%), wind (7%), hydro (7%) and biomass (2%) energy. (4) COVID-19 has had a short-term driving effect on this process, as it initially slowed down global economic cooperation, but it has had a hindering effect on the process in the long term.