Monitoring of Carbon Stocks in Pastures in the Savannas of Brazil through Ecosystem Modeling on a Regional Scale

In 2020, Brazil was the seventh largest emitter of GHG (greenhouse gases), releasing ~2.16 GtCO2e (gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent) into the atmosphere. Activities related to land use contributed approximately 73% of national emissions in that year. Considering that pastures represent the primary land use in the country, occupying approximately 20% of the territory, the mapping and monitoring of C stocks in these areas is essential to determine their contribution to national emissions. In this study, based on the integrated use of the CENTURY model, georeferenced databases, and the R environment, we mapped and analyzed, for the first time, the C stocks dynamics associated with the pasture areas of the Cerrado biome between 2000 and 2019. The average C stocks in the soil (0–20 cm) and in the aboveground biomass estimated by modeling were ~31 MgC·ha−1 and ~4 MgC·ha−1, respectively, values close to those observed in the literature for the region. Furthermore, the model results corresponded to the edaphic patterns of the region, with the highest average estimated C stocks in Cambisols (~34 MgC·ha−1) and the lowest in Neosols (~29 MgC·ha−1). The temporal dynamics of soil C stocks in these areas are directly related to the age of the pastures. In fact, stocks tend to be reduced in recently converted areas and stabilized in areas that have been under this land use for a longer time (≥30 years). As a result, a loss of ~103 MtC (millions of tons of carbon) was estimated in the Cerrado pasture soils in twenty years. The mapping and monitoring of C stocks in this land use type through approaches such as the one presented in this study is essential to support the Brazilian government’s efforts to mitigate C emissions.