Does Farmland Transfer Lead to Non-Grain Production in Agriculture?—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Differentiation of Farmland Renting-In Objects

The study aims to estimate different land leasing entities’ intentions and drivers to grow non-grain crops. In 2021, following a multistage sampling technique based on non-grain farmland, 264 farmers from the Zengcheng District of China were interviewed using a well-structured questionnaire based on the theory of planned behavior and transaction cost. The structural equation model was used to quantitatively reveal the influence mechanism of the non-grain use of the transferred farmland. The difference in the non-grain use of the transferred farmland was analyzed from the perspective of the differentiation of the renting entities. The results showed that the profit margin of non-grain and food crops, and the follow-up behavior of business entities, all promote the non-grain utilization of transferred farmland; however, the transaction costs of non-grain utilization and the endowment constraints of agricultural businesses inhibit the non-grain utilization of farmland. The non-grain crops in the suburbs are more profitable, and the transaction costs of the farmland leasing entities are low, so they tend to be grain-free; the rents of the farmland in the outer suburbs are low and can be operated on a large scale, and the leasing entities tend to be grain-oriented. Large-scale leasing entities tend to grow grain, while small-scale leasing entities tend to grow non-grain crops. In general, large-scale leasing entities in the outer suburbs have high transaction costs and low land rents and tend to be grain-oriented. The small-scale leasing entities in the suburbs are close to the market, the transaction costs are low, the rental price of farmland is high, and they are more inclined to grow non-grain crops. The non-grain utilization of the leased farmland should be treated separately, the supervision of the grain production capacity of the leased farmland should be carried out, and the rotation of grain and non-grain crops should be encouraged; the moderate scale operation in outer suburbs should be encouraged, and the construction of high-standard basic farmland for grain-growing farmland should be promoted.