The Impact of Government Behavior on the Development of Cross-Border E-Commerce B2B Export Trading Enterprises Based on Evolutionary Game in the Context of “Dual-Cycle” Policy

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on China’s foreign trade. Therefore, the Chinese government has proposed a “dual cycle” policy to promote economic development. In 2021, China’s cross-border e-commerce B2B exports accounted for 60 percent. Therefore, this paper studies the impact of government actions on the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export enterprises under the background of “dual cycle” policy. First, the policies related to the cross-border e-commerce industry in the “dual circulation” policy are screened, and the LDA topic model is used to classify them, i.e., sorting by topic intensity as “fiscal policy”, “tax policy”, “customs clearance policy”, “payment policy” and “talent policy”. After that, based on the analysis results of the LDA topic model, a theoretical basis for the impact of different policies on cross-border e-commerce B2B export companies is established; then an evolutionary game model between the government and cross-border e-commerce B2B export enterprises is constructed. This article also carried out experiments to verify our analysis. The simulation results show that: (1) The government’s appropriate increase in subsidies, tax incentives, infrastructure investment, talent introduction and cultivation, optimized payment system, and supervision can promote enterprises to participate in cross-border e-commerce B2B export trading; (2) excessive government supervision reduces enterprises’ enthusiasm to participate in cross-border e-commerce B2B export trading; (3) the government’s subsidies, tax incentives, and supervision strength have the greatest impact on whether enterprises participate in cross-border e-commerce B2B export trading, followed by the government’s investment in cross-border e-commerce infrastructure, the introduction and cultivation of cross-border e-commerce talents, and the improvement of the payment system. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce B2B export enterprises.