Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
# Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.

Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles. The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

## Party vote

### Graphical summary

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

### Individual polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green (GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP), Māori (MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and Advance New Zealand (ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

### UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

## Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

## Electorate polling

### Auckland Central

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | NAT | GRN | GRN | NZF | NZF | TOP | TOP | ACT | ACT | SNZ | TEA | IND |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Helen White | Emma Mellow | Nikki Kaye | Chlöe Swarbrick | Denise Roche | Jenny Marcroft | Frank Edwards | Tuariki Delamere | Mika Haka | Felix Poole | Brooke van Velden | Vernon Tava | Dominic Hoffman Dervan | Joshua Love |
| 24–30 Sep 2020 | Q+A Colmar Brunton | 35 | 30 | N/A | 26 | N/A | 1 | N/A | — | N/A | 4 | N/A | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| September 2020 | Newshub Nation–Reid Research | 42.3 | 26.6 | N/A | 24.2 | N/A | 2.2 | N/A | 1.0 | N/A | 0.9 | N/A | — | — | — |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 39.82 | N/A | 45.25 | N/A | 9.72 | N/A | 1.98 | N/A | 2.33 | N/A | 0.52 | N/A | N/A | N/A |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT | NZF | TOP | SNZ | VNZ | SCP |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 24–30 Sep 2020 | Q+A Colmar Brunton | 47 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| September 2020 | Newshub Nation–Reid Research | 56.2 | 23.1 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | — | — | — |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 37.71 | 39.15 | 13.87 | 1.05 | 3.87 | 3.14 | N/A | N/A | 0.01 |

### East Coast

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | NAT | GRN | GRN |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Kiri Allan | Tania Tapsell | Anne Tolley | Meredith Akuhata-Brown | Gareth Hughes |
| 22–24 Sep 2020 | Community Engagement | 40.5 | 35 | N/A | 4.9 | N/A |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 33.51 | N/A | 46.18 | N/A | 7.13 |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | GRN | NZF |
| - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 22–24 Sep 2020 | Community Engagement | 50 | 31 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 36.62 | 44.03 | 4.58 | 9.89 |

### Northland

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | NAT | LAB | NZF | NZF | GRN | GRN | NCP | ACT | ACT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Matt King | Willow-Jean Prime | Shane Jones | Winston Peters | Darleen Tana Hoff-Nielsen | Peter Hughes | Mel Taylor | Mark Cameron | Craig Nelson |
| 29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020 | Q+A–Colmar Brunton | 46 | 31 | 15 | N/A | 3 | N/A | 2 | 1 | N/A |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 38.30 | 21.61 | N/A | 34.81 | N/A | 4.51 | 0.46 | N/A | 0.30 |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | ACT | NZF | GRN | TOP |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020 | Q+A–Colmar Brunton | 41 | 38 | 8 | 7 | 4.7 | 0.4 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 30.12 | 46.35 | 0.47 | 13.17 | 6.05 | 1.98 |

### Hauraki-Waikato

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | MRI |
| - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Nanaia Mahuta | Donna Pokere-Phillips | Rahui Papa |
| 29–30 Sep 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 61 | 14 | N/A |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 68.85 | N/A | 27.36 |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | NAT | GRN | NZF | ACT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 29–30 Sep 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 61 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 61.5 | 11.3 | 6.87 | 5.14 | 8.34 | 0.09 |

### Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | MRI | GRN | ANZ | OUT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Meka Whaitiri | Heather Te Au-Skipworth | Marama Fox | Elizabeth Kerekere | Waitangi Kupenga | Kelly Thurston |
| 23–25 Sep 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 46 | 19 | N/A | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 53.68 | N/A | 35.27 | 8.41 | N/A | N/A |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | NZF | GRN | NAT | ACT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 23–25 Sep 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 62 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 64.7 | 13 | 7.16 | 4.86 | 4.8 | 0.13 |

### Tāmaki Makaurau

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | MRI | GRN |
| - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Peeni Henare | John Tamihere | Shane Taurima | Marama Davidson |
| 6–7 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 35 | 29 | N/A | 14 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 47.51 | N/A | 28.25 | 21.58 |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | GRN | NZF | NAT | ACT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6–7 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 57 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 59.34 | 10.96 | 7.24 | 9.53 | 6.55 | 0.16 |

### Te Tai Hauāuru

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | MRI |
| - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Adrian Rurawhe | Debbie Ngarewa-Packer | Howie Tamati |
| 23–25 Sep 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 38 | 20 | N/A |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 43.86 | N/A | 39.21 |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | NAT | GRN | NZF | ACT | TOP |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 23–25 Sep 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 51 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 58.47 | 14.96 | 6.54 | 6.53 | 7.26 | 0.08 | 2.85 |

### Te Tai Tokerau

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | ANZ |
| - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Kelvin Davis | Mariameno Kapa-Kingi | Billy Te Kahika |
| 6–7 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 36 | 18 | 1 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 52.60 | N/A | N/A |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NZF | NAT | MRI | GRN | ACT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6–7 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 58 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 57.94 | 11.12 | 7.42 | 6.48 | 6.35 | 0.16 |

### Te Tai Tonga

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | MRI | GRN | GRN |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Rino Tirikatene | Tākuta Ferris | Mei Reedy-Taare | Ariana Paretutanganui-Tamati | Metiria Turei |
| 4–5 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 37 | 11 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 44.44 | N/A | 20.97 | N/A | 24.5 |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | MRI | GRN | NZF | ACT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4–5 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 53 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 55.8 | 12.47 | 8.4 | 8.12 | 7.8 | 0.2 |

### Waiariki

Electorate vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | MRI | VNZ |
| - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | Polling organisation | Tāmati Coffey | Rawiri Waititi | Te Ururoa Flavell | Hannah Tamaki |
| 30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 38 | 26 | N/A | 2 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 53.74 | N/A | 46.26 | N/A |

Party vote :

| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | MRI | GRN | NAT | NZF | ACT |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020 | Māori TV–Curia | 47 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 58.95 | 19.71 | 3.86 | 4.75 | 7.42 | 0.08 |

## Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National and that Botany will be returned to National, but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

| Source | Seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament | Likely government formation(s) |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Source | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | MRI | Total | Likely government formation(s) |
| Roy Morgan Sep 2020 poll | 38 | 61 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
| 1 News–Colmar Brunton 10–14 Oct 2020 poll | 40 | 59 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Green (70) |
| Newshub–Reid Research 8–15 Oct 2020 poll | 41 | 61 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 120 | Labour (61) |
| 2020 result | 33 | 65 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 120 | Labour (65) |

* ↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
