Predictable surprise
# Predictable surprise

A "predictable surprise" describes a situation or circumstance in which avoidable crises are marginalized in order to satisfy economic and social policies.

## Definition

Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins define "predictable surprises" as problems that

* at least some people are aware of,
* are getting worse over time, and
* are likely to explode into a crisis eventually,
* but are not prioritized by key decision-makers or have not elicited a response fast enough to prevent severe damage.

The problems behind "predictable surprises" tend to require a significant investment in the near term that will not pay off until later. This could involve changes to established organization culture and/or changes that competing interests do not benefit from.

## Examples of predictable surprises

* Iraq War
* Enron scandal
* Subprime mortgage crisis
* Hurricane Katrina government response
* Global warming
* Roman Catholic sex abuse cases

## Citations

* ↑ Watkins, M (2007)BusinessWeek (December 17) Subprime: A Predictable Surprise
* ↑ Irons, L (2005) Homeland Security Affairs Hurricane Katrina as A Predictable Surprise
* ↑ Bazerman, M (2006) Climate change as a predictable surprise.Climatic Change 77:79-193
