Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament - Technical adjustment of the financial perspective for 2001 in line with movements in GNP and prices (Paragraph 15 of the Interinstitutional Agreement of 6 May 1999 on budgetary discipline and improvement of the budgetary procedure)
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 17. 02. 2000 COM(2000)93 final COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT Technical adjustment of the financial perspective for 2001 in line with movements in GNP and prices (Paragraph 15 of the Interinstitutional Agreement of 6 May 1999 on budgetary discipline and improvement of the budgetary procedure) COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT Technical adjustment of the financial perspective for 2001 in line with movements in GNP and prices (Paragraph 15 of the Interinstitutional Agreement of 6 May 1999 on budgetary discipline and improvement of the budgetary procedure) 1. The financial perspective table for 2000-06 forms an integral part of the Interinstitutional Agreement of 6 May 1999 on budgetary discipline and improvement of the budgetary procedure. the Interinstitutional Agreement the Paragraph 15 of Commission will, ahead of the budgetary procedure for year n+1, make a technical adjustment to the financial perspective in line with movements in the EU's gross national product (GNP) and prices. states that each year The purpose of this communication is to present to the budgetary authority the result of this technical adjustment for 2001. 2. Table 1 shows the adjusted financial perspective at 2001 prices. The overall ceiling on appropriations for commitments for 2001 comes to million, equivalent to 1. 19% of GNP. € 97 189 The corresponding ceiling on the appropriations for payments required comes to € 94 730 million, i. e. around 1. 11% of GNP. € 13 643 million between the ceiling on appropriations for This leaves a margin of payments and the own-resources ceiling, i. e. 0. 16% of GNP, on the basis of current economic forecasts. The margin for 2000 has been updated in relation to the technical adjustment for 20001 by including the latest GNP estimates for 2000 and thus allowing comparisons to be made between a number of years. However, the ceilings on commitments and payments resulting from that adjustment have not been changed. Table 2 sets out the adjusted financial framework for EU-21 at 2001 prices by way of indication. The GNP figure incorporates the latest estimates available for the GNP of the six countries in the first wave of accession (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus). The total GNP of these countries for 2001 is estimated at € 315 billion. 3. Table 3 contains the macroeconomic data and forecasts used by the Commission to make the technical adjustment for 2001. The latest estimates presented by the Commission (budget forecasts, November 1999) have been used for the period 1999- 2000. Both the retrospective data for 1988-1998 (drawn up by Eurostat and used here to calculate the agricultural guideline) and the provisional forecasts for 1999-2001 1 SEC(1999) 847 final, tables 1 and 2. 2 are based on the European System of Accounts set up in 1979 (ESA 79). Under the proposal for a new own resources decision,2 the new ESA 95 will not be used for budgetary purposes until 2002. 4. The adjustment is calculated by applying the following deflators to the financial perspective (at 1999 prices): – A cumulative deflator of 4. 04% for the period 1999-2001 to the ceiling for heading 1 and to the figure for the Structural Funds in heading 2, in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Interinstitutional Agreement. – The GNP deflator in euros for 1999-2001 (3. 84%) to the other ceilings, apart from subheading 6 (Monetary reserve), which is expressed in current prices. As regards payments, the adjustment is based on the appropriations for payments estimated for each heading when the financial perspective was drawn up (1999 prices). The method of calculation is set out in the following table: Approps for payments 2001 at 1999 prices ( million) € Cumulative deflator 2000-2001 (%) Approps for payments 2001 at 2001 prices million) € ( Appropriations (heading 1) for payments 42. 800 Appropriations (heading 2 - Structural Funds) for payments 27. 430 Appropriations (heading 5) for payments 4. 600 Approps for payments (heading 6) Monetary reserve Other reserves appropriations (heading for Other payments - Cohesion Fund - + headings 3 + 4 + 7) 2 500 400 15. 380 4. 04 4. 04 3. 84 0 3. 84 3. 84 44. 529 28. 538 4. 777 500 415 15. 971 Total appropriations for payments 94. 730 In heading 1, the appropriations for payments available for accession have been adjusted by means of a 4. 04% cumulative deflator. For "other expenditure", a distinction is made between payments for structural operations, to which the cumulative 4. 04% deflator is applied, and payments under headings 3 and 5, for which the cumulative 3. 84% deflator has been used. 2 COM(1999) 333 final 3 The indicative table for the financial framework for EU-21 has been adjusted in the same way (see Table 2). In heading 8 (Enlargement), the commitment appropriations for agriculture and structural operations have been adjusted by means of the cumulative 4. 04% deflator and those for internal policies and administration by means of the cumulative 3. 84% deflator. Payments under heading 8 have been adjusted using the same method of calculation as for the payments available for accession in the financial perspective. The agricultural guideline, which is no longer the ceiling for heading 1, is calculated in accordance with the latest Council Decision on budgetary discipline3 (see table 4). The parameters applied - both for real growth and the deflator - relate to the twelve- nation Community for the period 1988-95 and the fifteen-nation Community from 1996 onwards. The figures for sugar and isoglucose levies, food aid refunds and ACP sugar refunds are based at this stage on the most recent estimates. In accordance with the decision on budgetary discipline, the final level of these specific items in the guideline will be fixed when the preliminary draft budget is presented. In 2001 the agricultural guideline comes to € 48 841 million. 4 In the case of heading 5, a footnote to the financial perspective states that the figures for pensions included under the ceiling for this heading are to be calculated net of 1 100 million (1999 staff contributions to the pension scheme, up to a maximum of prices) for the period 2000-06. As stated in the Commission communication on the technical adjustment for 2000,5 this provision should be interpreted as imposing a dual limit on the amounts deducted from expenditure on pensions when applying the ceiling for the heading: € - this amount may not exceed the contributions actually entered as budget revenue in any one year. For 2001 these contributions are provisionally estimated6 at 169. 3 million, i. e. 163 million at 1999 prices with the cumulative deflator of 3. 84% applied for the adjustment to the ceiling for the heading; € - the accumulated total of deductions for the period 2000-06 may not exceed million at 1999 prices, equivalent to an average of at 2001 prices). 157 million a year ( € € 1 100 163 million € € limit - i. e. a As administrative expenditure is, as a rule, recurrent, the lowest 163 million at current prices for 2001 - should be adopted each year to maximum of avoid using a margin at the start of the period which will no longer be fully available afterwards. OJ L 293, 12. 11. 1994. An adjustment to the method for calculating the agricultural guideline is now being discussed, but has yet to be adopted. It cannot therefore be used in this case. A margin of 3 771 millions in relation to all the expenditure which will now be included under the guideline as a result of the conclusions of the Berlin European Council (heading 1 and the agricultural section of the pre-accession aid under heading 7). SEC(1999) 847 final, paragraph 6. As with remunerations, a rate of € ( for 2001. increase of 3% has been applied to the figure for 2000 164. 4 million). The figure proposed by the Commission will appear in the preliminary draft budget 4 5. 6. 3 4 5 6 7. The fifth subparagraph of paragraph 10 of the Interinstitutional Agreement states that included in the general budget and the information relating to operations not foreseeable development of the various categories of own resources is to be set out in tables, as an indication, and updated annually when the technical adjustment is made to the financial perspective. This information, updated in line with the latest estimates available, is set out in Tables 5. 1 to 5. 3. It covers the EDF, the ECSC operating budget and the structure of own resources. 5 Table 1 : FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE ADJUSTED TO 2001 PRICES Current prices 2000 41. 738 37. 352 4. 386 32. 678 30. 019 2. 659 6. 031 4. 627 4. 638 906 500 203 203 3. 174 529 1. 058 1. 587 93. 792 91. 322 1,12% 2001 44. 530 40. 035 4. 495 32. 720 30. 005 2. 715 6. 272 4. 735 4. 776 916 500 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 97. 189 94. 730 1,11% APPROPRIATIONS FOR COMMITMENTS 1. AGRICULTURE CAP (not including rural development) Rural development and accompanying measures 2. STRUCTURAL OPERATIONS Structural Funds Cohesion Fund 3. INTERNAL POLICIES (1) 4. EXTERNAL ACTION (not including Phare from 1999 onwards) 5. ADMINISTRATION (2) 6. RESERVES Monetary reserve Emergency aid reserve Guarantee reserve 7. PRE-ACCESSION AID Agriculture Pre-accession structural instrument PHARE (applicant countries) TOTAL APPROPRIATIONS FOR COMMITMENTS TOTAL APPROPRIATIONS FOR PAYMENTS Appropriations for payments as % of GNP AVAILABLE FOR ACCESSION (appropriations for payments) Agriculture Other expenditure CEILING, APPROPRIATIONS FOR PAYMENTS Ceiling, payments as % of GNP Margin for unforeseen expenditure Own resources ceiling (1) In accordance with Article 2 of Decision No182/1999/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Article 2 of Council Decision1999/64/Euratom (OJ L 26, 1. 2. 1999, p. 1 and p. 34), (2) The expenditure on pensions included under the ceiling for this heading is calculated net of staff contributions to the pension scheme, up to a maximum of prices for the period 2000-06. 2006 43. 344 38. 797 4. 547 30. 343 27. 737 2. 606 6. 853 4. 787 5. 296 416 0 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 94. 279 93. 197 0,97% 14. 792 3. 537 11. 255 107. 989 1,12% 0,15% 1,27% 2005 43. 624 39. 088 4. 536 30. 785 28. 174 2. 611 6. 729 4. 776 5. 192 416 0 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 94. 762 93. 759 1,00% 11. 899 3. 048 8. 851 105. 658 1,12% 0,15% 1,27% 2003 45. 538 41. 023 4. 515 31. 503 28. 788 2. 715 6. 500 4. 756 4. 984 416 0 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 96. 937 98. 671 1,10% 6. 979 2. 112 4. 867 105. 650 1,18% 0,09% 1,27% 2002 45. 674 41. 169 4. 505 32. 106 29. 391 2. 715 6. 386 4. 745 4. 880 666 250 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 97. 697 97. 975 1,12% 4. 306 1. 665 2. 641 102. 281 1,17% 0,10% 1,27% 2001 prices 2004 44. 488 39. 962 4. 526 30. 785 28. 174 2. 611 6. 614 4. 766 5. 088 416 0 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 95. 397 95. 581 1,04% 9. 247 2. 549 6. 698 104. 828 1,14% 0,13% 1,27% 11 510 million at current prices is available for research over the period 2000-02. 91. 322 1,12% 0,15% 1,27% 94. 730 1,11% 0,16% 1,27% 1 100 million at 1999 € € 6 Table 2 : FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK EU-21 ADJUSTED TO 2001 PRICES 2003 45. 538 41. 023 4. 515 31. 503 28. 788 2. 715 6. 500 4. 756 4. 984 416 2004 44. 488 39. 962 4. 526 30. 785 28. 174 2. 611 6. 614 4. 766 5. 088 416 2005 43. 624 39. 088 4. 536 30. 785 28. 174 2. 611 6. 729 4. 776 5. 192 416 2006 43. 344 38. 797 4. 547 30. 343 27. 737 2. 606 6. 853 4. 787 5. 296 416 2000 41. 738 37. 352 4. 386 32. 678 30. 019 2. 659 6. 031 4. 627 4. 638 906 500 203 203 3. 174 529 1. 058 1. 587 2001 44. 530 40. 035 4. 495 32. 720 30. 005 2. 715 6. 272 4. 735 4. 776 916 500 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 EUR million - Appropriations for commitments 1. AGRICULTURE CAP (not including rural development) Rural development and accompanying measures 2. STRUCTURAL OPERATIONS Structural Funds Cohesion Fund 3. INTERNAL POLICIES (1) 4. EXTERNAL ACTION (not including Phare from 1999 onwards) 5. ADMINISTRATION (2) 6. RESERVES Monetary reserve Emergency aid reserve Guarantee reserve 7. PRE-ACCESSION AID Agriculture Pre-accession structural instrument PHARE (applicant countries) 8. ENLARGEMENT Agriculture Structural operations Internal policies Administration TOTAL APPROPRIATIONS FOR COMMITMENTS TOTAL APPROPRIATIONS FOR PAYMENTS of which: enlargement Appropriations for payments as % of GNP Margin for unforeseen expenditure Own resources ceiling (1) In accordance with Article 2 of Decision No182/1999/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Article 2 of Council Decision 1999/64/Euratom (OJ L 26, 1. 2. 1999, p. 1 and p. 34), (2) The expenditure on pensions included under the ceiling for this heading is calculated net of staff contributions to the pension scheme, up to a maximum of prices for the period 2000-06. 2002 45. 674 41. 169 4. 505 32. 106 29. 391 2. 715 6. 386 4. 745 4. 880 666 250 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 6. 709 1. 665 3. 902 758 384 104. 406 102. 281 4. 306 1,13% 0,14% 1,27% 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 17. 455 3. 537 12. 568 883 467 111. 734 107. 989 14. 792 1,07% 0,20% 1,27% 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 14. 770 3. 048 10. 404 851 467 109. 532 105. 658 11. 899 1,08% 0,19% 1,27% 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 9. 393 2. 112 6. 066 789 426 106. 330 105. 650 6. 979 1,13% 0,14% 1,27% 208 208 3. 240 540 1. 080 1. 620 12. 076 2. 549 8. 240 820 467 107. 473 104. 828 9. 247 1,10% 0,17% 1,27% 11 510 million at current prices is available for research over the period 2000-02. 1,11% 0,16% 1,27% 1,12% 0,15% 1,27% 1 100 million at 1999 97. 189 94. 730 93. 792 91. 322 € € 7 Table 3: GNP - FIGURES AND FORECASTS Real growth rate (%) -Adjustment for 1999 (memorandum item) -Adjustment for 2000 -Adjustment for 2001 GNP deflator in euros (%) -Adjustment for 1999 (memorandum item) -Adjustment for 2000 -Adjustment for 2001 GNP at current prices (ECU/EUR billion) -Adjustment for 1999 (memorandum item) -Adjustment for 2000 -Adjustment for 2001 1999 2000 2001 3,1 1,9 1,9 2,1 2,1 2,2 2,7 3,1 1,7 2,0 3 1,8 7804,3 7714,5 7737,4 8058,5 8136,6 8533,3 Comparison between deflator in national currency and deflator in euros 1999 2000 2001 Deflators in national currency Deflators in euros 1,4% 2,2% 1,8% 2,0% 1,9% 1,8% 8 Table 4 : CALCULATION OF THE AGRICULTURAL GUIDELINE FOR 2001 2001 2000 BASE EXPENDITURE (1988 budget) Less: - sugar and isoglucose levy - food aid refunds - ACP sugar refunds - Subtotal CORRECTEDEXPENDITURE(1988prices) ANNUAL GNP GROWTH RATE 27. 500 1. 540 386 716 2. 642 24. 858 € million 27. 500 1. 540 386 716 2. 642 24. 858 3,60% 2,80% 1,80% 1,00% -0,70% 2,70% 2,40% 1,60% 2,80% 2,70% 1,90% 2,70% 28,36% 20,99% 30. 905 30. 076 5,20% 4,70% 5,30% 3,50% 1,40% 1,80% 1,30% 3,30% 2,70% 1,70% 2,10% 1,70% 40,63% 44. 459 42. 294 7,35% 5,44% 46. 914 44. 594 1. 114 46 767 1. 927 46. 521 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Cumulativegrowthrate 74%ofcumulativegrowthrate CORRECTEDEXPENDITURE(1988prices) GNP DEFLATOR 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Cumulativegrowthrate CORRECTEDEXPENDITURE(2001prices) IMPACT OF ENLARGEMENT GNP growth rate in 1995 74% of growth rate CORRECTEDEXPENDITURE Plus Estimatedneedsfor - sugar and isoglucose levy - food aid refunds - ACP sugar refunds - Subtotal AGRICULTURAL GUIDELINE 3,60% 2,80% 1,90% 1,20% -0,50% 2,70% 2,50% 1,50% 2,60% 2,50% 1,90% 3,10% 3,00% 32,87% 24,33% 5,30% 4,70% 5,20% 3,40% 1,30% 1,90% 1,30% 3,40% 2,80% 1,70% 2,20% 2,00% 1,80% 43,86% 7,46% 5,52% 1. 114 46 767 1. 927 48. 841 9 TABLE 5: INDICATIVE PROGRAMME OF EXPENDITURE NOT ENTERED IN THE GENERAL BUDGET AND PROSPECTIVE TREND IN THE VARIOUS OWN RESOURCES 5. 1. European Development Fund (1) Decisions (D) and payments (P) EUR million - current prices 2001 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 D 3000 (1) Commission communication COM(1999)688final of 13. 12. 1999 P 2000 D 3000 P 1985 P 2000 D 3000 D 3500 P 2500 D 3500 P 2500 D n. d. P n. d. 2006 D n. d. P n. d. 5. 2. ECSC operating budget EUR million - current prices 2001 147 2000 178 (1) ECSC Treaty expires on 23 July 2002 2002(1) 118 5. 3. Own resources by category % of total 2000 15 2001 12 2002 11 2003 11 2004 12 2005 12 2006 12 own Traditional resources VAT GNP 2000: Budget 2001-06: Estimates based on ceilings on appropriations for payments in the financial perspective (EU 15) and conclusions of the Berlin European Council (March 1999). 23 65 36 49 22 66 35 52 15 73 13 75 15 72 10