Tornado outbreak of March 1, 2023
# Tornado outbreak of March 1, 2023

A tornado outbreak is expected to affect multiple regions Southern United States, including the states of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. In anticipation for the event, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an level 3/enhanced risk for March 1, a large, Day 2 moderate risk for March 2, and a precursor, Day 3 slight risk in a large region to the east of the original risk.

## Meteorological synopsis

### March 1

While confidence for a widespread severe weather outbreak increased for March 2, an enhanced risk for severe weather, including the possibility for a few strong/EF2+ tornadoes, was issued for March 1. A large capping inversion, placed along northern Louisiana, was expected to contain the atmosphere from iniciating convective activity, but the presense of moisture, daytime heating in the area, and steep mid-level lapse rates, made the environment favorable for severe weather, including the possibility for supercells capable of all hazards. Given the favorable parameters in place, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a large corridor, extending from extreme northeastern Texas, most of central Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, and southwestern Tennessee, were the highest probabilities for tornadoes were located. A slight risk, lined with a 5% risk for tornadoes, was issued around the main area of concern, and extended into central Tennessee, and northern Alabama. A large, 30% risk for strong, damaging wind gusts was also placed along central and eastern portions of Arkansas, extending into northwest Mississippi and southwest Tennessee, as was a hatched corridor for very large hail was also introduced for this corridor.

### March 2

As a large, widespread, and damaging storm complex event was occurring throughout the Great Plains, which unleashed powerful damaging winds and tornadoes across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the SPC highlighted a potential area for the risk of severe weather in the following days, with the main, 30% area for severe weather centered around eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, middle portions of Mississippi, and western Alabama, as conditions were expected to be very favorable for the development of thunderstorms capable of all severe weather hazards.

After introducing a massive level 3/enhanced risk for March 2 on February 28, which now included portions of southeastern Oklahoma, the SPC upped the threat to a level 4/moderate risk, throughout a corridor centered along the Ark-La-Tex region, clipping into extreme southeastern Oklahoma, on March 1. Throughout the risk area, the environmentally favorable conditions for severe weather were set in motion due to the presense of abundant moisture, instability that was expected ahead of a cold front starting from north-central Texas, and intense wind shear prevalent across the entire region. With this setup, a linear cluster of discrete supercell thunderstorms was expected to develop, and given the favorable wind and instability patterns, a 15%, hatched risk for strong/EF2+ tornadoes was placed along the moderate risk area, while a large, surrounding 10% risk for strong tornadoes was placed and extended into central portions of Arkansas, and all the way into northwestern Mississippi. A 45% risk for damaging winds was also centered along the main risk area, and a 30% area for large hail was also added to the countour.

