Report from the Commission - Employment in Europe (1997)
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 01. 10. 1997 COM(97)479 final REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION Employment in EUROPE 1997 An employment agenda for the year 2000: executive summary An employment agenda for the year 2000: executive summary The Employment in Europe report 1997 comes at a defining moment in the development of the Union. The new Treaty, agreed at Amsterdam, makes employment a matter of common concern and introduces employ ment as an explicit goal for the Union. This report contributes to the preparations for the extraordinary European Council on employment and unemployment and to the further development of the European employ ment strategy. It presents the latest trends in employment and the labour market and looks forward to the challenges of the 21st Century as the European Union prepares itself for this new phase in its develop ment with the completion of the Single Market, the third phase of EMU and the preparations for the new wave of enlargement. Recent developments in jobs and employability At 1. 5%, economic growth was slow in 1996, the re covery not gathering momentum until the end of the year. Inflation, at 2V2% continued to be low and wage developments were moderate. • employment rose by some 600 000 in 1996, not enough to make significant inroads into making good the job losses of the recession or reducing un employment; • part-time jobs again accounted for all net job cre ation in 1996, as they have each year since 1990; • the rise, in job opportunities led to a renewed rise in labour force participation. Participation of women in creased further, from 56Y2% to 57% and withdrawal of men from the labour market slowed down; • unemployment remains stubbornly high at 10. 8% in mid-1997, and over 5% of the labour force in the Union had been unemployed for a year or more in 1996; • the unemployed had great difficulty in finding jobs: under a third of men, and a quarter of women who were unemployed in 1995 had found a job by 1996. • unemployment of women is still some 3% points higher than for men (12. 7% compared with 9. 4%) • while youth unemployment has improved slightly, due to demographic factors and a higher participa tion in education, the average rate in the Union remains at over 20%; • job losses over the last 10 years have been concen trated in sectors which account for less than a quarter of total employment in the Union; • 17% of the working age population is hampered by disabilities; nearly half of these are in the 50-64 age group. The average employment rate of disabled people is 44%, nearly 17% below the overall rate. The main questions for the employment agenda The challenges of the next decade raise serious ques tions about the ability of the European labour market to respond to them. The single market and EMU focus attention on mechanisms of economic adjustment and their effectiveness and on whether the European labour market is sufficiently flexible to secure a balanced and sustainable development of employment in the years to come. The main problem is job creation Whatever the relationship between employment and output growth, it is clear that the major problem re mains the creation of more jobs. The response in terms of increased labour market participation to the rela tively small improvement in job opportunities in the period 1994-96 shows that there is a labour reserve in Europe which can be mobilised, over and above those recorded as being unemployed. Compared with the em- 1- An employment agenda for the year 2000: executive summary ployment rate in the US, this reserve amounts to over 20 million people to be found jobs. A range of measures are needed to unlock this growth potential and to make growth sustainable. • While in the short term, net job creation depends mainly on the rate of output growth, in the longer term it also depends on institutional structures and societal choice on the priority given to employ ment and how possible conflicts, between this and maintaining productivity growth and competitive ness are reconciled. • Tax-benefit systems should continue to be made more employment-friendly to create an environ ment that stimulates enterprise and the creation of jobs. • in Europe-wide investment, particularly infra structure projects, can have a major impact on employment, adding to capacity and productive potential, with less inflationary risk than con sumption, and promoting competitiveness and sustainable growth. • Job creation depends to a high degree on creating the right economic environment. Product and ser vices markets need to function in a more effective way in order to create new opportunities which will generate additional demand for labour. Measures proposed under the action plan for the Single Mar ket should therefore be implemented without any delay at national and Community level. The skills gap — A major structural problem The ageing of the Union's labour force, allied with the increasing pace of new technology means that we are facing an ever-expanding skills gap. Societies must maintain their competitiveness with a shrinking num ber of young people with modern skills and a large proportion of older workers who have been trained for technologies no longer used or for jobs no longer needed. A triple-pronged strategy which aims to ensure that learning, training and updating skills and competence is an on-going process throughout life is therefore called for: first, to reorganise fundamentally initial education and training systems to bridge the gap between school and work and to enable young people to be adaptable in later working life by ensuring that they have the rele vant skills and competence. Second, to commit government and business to much more than the cur rent token efforts to upgrade and continuously train the whole of the adult labour force so that they have the ability to meet the challenges brought about by new technologies and third, to develop better programmes combining training, incentives and opportunities for unemployed and displaced workers to equip them with the skills and abilities to enable them to reintegrate into the mainstream of society. Bridging the skills gap is a key to a more flexible and dynamic labour market. At the same time, efforts to improve the skill levels of the work force must go hand in hand with continued efforts to ensure sufficient flexibility in labour markets and that labour costs are conducive to job creation so that employment opportunities are provided for those whose skill levels are likely to remain limited irrespec tive of the kind and extent of training received. This means that the overall cost of employment for the latter, including the non-wage element, is at an appropriate level in relation to productivity and that artificial bar riers inhibiting job creation are removed. Such measures will also help to increase confidence that policies for fostering labour demand will not simply lead to increased inflation. Flexibility in working patterns P Flexibility in goods and services markets, in the form, for example, of the relaxation of restrictions on Sunday trading, is translated in the European labour market into non-standard patterns of work and employment contracts. Part-time working and fixed-term contracts have become the standard response to slow market growth and uncertainty. Such patterns can also result from high levels of regulation, which alter the way in which employers hire labour, as well as affecting the rate of net job creation. A new approach is therefore required which neither condemns them outright nor promotes them superficially. Carefully designed pro grammes of reform are required, preferably negotiated through social dialogue between governments and social partners. Such programmes should both end the dis crimination against permanent work contracts due to excessive regulation, and extend social protection, ac quired and transferable rights, to non-standard forms of work. Flexibility in wages and salaries Differences in wage levels across Europe tend to be wider than in the US, not only between Member States, which is to be expected, but also between regions within An employment agenda for the year 2000: executive summary Member States. Average labour costs vary at the ex- , tremes from ECU 5 per hour to over ECU 25 per hour. Such differences largely reflect variations in labour productivity and there is little sign of wages being excessive relative to the contribution of labour to value- added. Analysis of labour cost differences between regions in Europe and the US suggests that regional problems of inadequate infrastructure, low local labour force skills and so on may be as important as wage flexibility in giving rise to unbalanced rates of economic development and employment growth. Policy, therefore, needs to be focused on correcting these problems, together with labour market rigidities which can deter job creation. Geographical mobility The scale of migration into the Union is relatively small: less than 0. 5% of the working-age population in 1995. Inflows into the Union have slowed significantly since the early 1990s; only half of immigrants are from third countries and many of the rest are returning nationals. While the policies for labour migration must continue to give priority to absorbing the excess labour supply in the EU, it must also recognise the value of the contribu tion made by migrants to the economies of the Union and, in accordance with the Treaties in force, promote their rights and equal treatment commensurate with that contribution. as job shortages. It may also reflect the constraints which exist, in both Europe and the US, on someone who is unemployed moving from their home to another part of the country to look for work. Policy should aim at alleviating these constraints. Regional mobility is not confined to migration. Large- scale commuting occurs in many parts of the Union and is potentially important in correcting labour market imbalances. Policies should aim at improving the trade off between such benefits and disadvantages which arise in other policy areas in relation to the provision of social services, traffic and environmental degradation. Occupational mobility Sectoral and occupational mobility are equally import ant aspects of labour market flexibility and there is evidence that this is relatively high in most Member States. In 1995, job turnover was around 16% for men and 19% for women. Making it easier for people to change jobs and ensuring access to the necessary retrain ing is important for combating emerging skill shortages, narrowing productivity gaps and thereby promoting growth and employment. Adjusting to the capacities of individuals Within the Union, movements of labour between Mem ber States are also small, much smaller than movements between different parts of the US. Less than 2% of the working age population in EU Member States are from other EU countries. However, move ments between regions within Member States are much larger than between countries and are comparable in size to those between States in the US. In 1993-94, an average of just under 1. 5% of the population moved between NUTS 1 regions in Europe, which compares with just over 2. 5% in the US. In most instances, these movements are linked to employment or education and training opportunities and are particularly important among younger age groups. Policy should aim to pro vide people with a real choice between staying in the place where they were brought up and moving elsewhere to live and work. Flexible labour markets mean that employers also, adapt to the needs and capacities of individuals and to capitalise on their potential so as to maximise the supply of skills. Evidence of a lack of such adjustment is the low rate of training of workers and the low employment rate of disabled people. While this varies between Member States, it tends to be higher in coun tries where the overall employment rate is also high. Disability is often the result of dangerous working con ditions and poor safety standards. 10 million people every year are stricken by occupational diseases, in juries or accidents. A decisive implementation of agreed health and safety standards would substantially im prove the safety situation, reduce public expenditures and increase the employability of the work force. Dynamics of the labour market Q CO 6 S The scale of regional migration was slightly lower in 1994 than in 1990 both in Europe and in the US, perhaps because economic activity was lower in the later year. This suggests that the availability of jobs may be just as important in encouraging people to move An average of 30% of the unemployed find work within a year. This proportion tends to rise slightly in periods of strong growth. In 1996, some 57» million people had been unemployed for more than two years. In 1992, this figure was 3 million, suggesting that even the hard-core - 3- An employment agenda for the year 2000: executive summary long-term unemployed can be tackled with a period of sustained employment growth. Structural unemploy ment reflects the nature of the economy, not the individual. Policy needs to recognise that dealing with the unemployed is three-fold: bringing about a suffi cient, but sustainable rate of growth, tackling the employability of the unemployed by enabling them con tinually to update their skills in line with labour market needs and improving and simplifying the business envi ronment. The way forward: an employment agenda for the year 2000 The Amsterdam Resolution called for the improvement of the functioning of European markets and enhanced coordination of economic policies. It also called for an immediate implementation of the relevant provisions in the Employment Title in the new Treaty. The key pro vision is the reference to employment as a common concern. That is why it provides for the appropriate coordination of employment policies at EU level and the development of a common employment strategy. The message of Amsterdam is that the completion of the single market, monetary discipline and job creation have to be pursued in parallel. This is the task for all those concerned. The Commission Communication "Agenda 2000" pres ents the economic, technological and social trends in European society in the years to come. This communi cation is the basis for the Commission's contribution to the further development of the European employment strategy. It indicates four directions for action in this respect: setting the conditions for sustainable, employ ment-intensive growth; putting knowledge and technology to the forefront; modernising employment systems; improving living conditions. Certain priority programmes, with a high value-added from Com munity-level action are highlighted. They include the trans-European networks, research, education and training, the introduction of environmentally-friendly technologies and measures to support SMEs. stability and structural reform to modernise labour markets, has been underway since December 1994. There are experiences of good progress and perfor mance both on a national scale and at local and regional level. The 1997 Demographic Report has focused on the underlying population changes which will affect labour force trends in the first decades of the new century. These changes must be taken into account in the devel opment of the Employment strategy for the year 2000. There is, however, a question of responsibility for action and how it should be shared. Member States continue to have responsibility for em ployment policy and the provision of sustainable growth and a favourable business environment. Employers, above all, must maintain the competitive ness and job creating capacity of their enterprises. Maintaining and developing the productive capacity and motivation of their work force depends on the provision of on-going and relevant training and by treat ing this as an investment rather than as a cost for the enterprise. Many job opportunities are lost when busi nesses face complex and difficult administrative requirements during their start up and early years, and when businesses are transferred. Simplifying the busi ness environment would help to overcome these difficulties faced by employers. 0* Q > Trade Unions have a major role to play in promoting equity in the labour market in encouraging responsible wage determination which increases investment, pro ductivity and welfare and which helps insiders to keep their jobs and outsiders to gain access to them. Local governments, within a coherent national strategy, must bring all relevant bodies together in partnerships for local development, to tap local capa cities and local markets to identify sources of jobs. They must also act as agents for change, promoting sustain able local restructuring. The European employment strategy is of fundamental importance in tackling the employment problem, and will be even more important when Economic and Mon etary Union is implemented. While high employment and well functioning labour markets are priority objec tives in their own right,-high employment is the best way to make EMU successful. The existing employment strategy, based on a combination of macroeconomic Individuals have a claim on opportunities offered to them. But they must also combine these opportunities with an individual responsibility: a willingness to adapt, to respond to incentives and to seek and master new capacities and skills. The European Institutions have an important contribu tion to make. In line with the conclusions of the 4- An employment agenda for the year 2000: executive summary Amsterdam European Council, the Commission will present a proposal for a Joint Employment Report and draft guidelines for Member States' employment policy to be submitted to the Jobs Summit to be held at the end of 1997. These will be designed to specify an agenda for employment for the year 2000 and beyond and provide the basis for operational action to provide for more and better jobs in the Union. An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies An employment agenda for the year issues and policies 2000: The Employment in Europe Report for 1997 comes at a defining moment in the development of the Union. The adoption of an employment Title in the Treaty provides both the recognition that employment is an issue of common concern and the tools necessary to address this issue at European level. The Report examines the challenges of employment and labour market policy in the years to come and suggests where the main priorities for policy should lie. Employment is a common concern The inclusion of an employment Title in the Treaty marks a new departure for the recognition of em ployment as an explicit objective for the Union. The Treaty now states that "Member States. shall regard promoting employment as a matter of common concern and shall co-or dinate their action. " This reflects the commitment of'Member States who have the main responsibility to implement the decisive action re quired to produce a substantive and sustainable improvement in em ployment performance. It also provides for action at Community level: "The objective of a high level of employment shall be taken into consideration in the formulation and implementation of Community policies and activities. " The Treaty identifies the promotion of "a skilled, trained and adaptable work force and labour markets respon sive to economic change" as a key objective in developing a coordi nated strategy for employment. Furthermore, the revision of Article 2 of the Treaty also confers on the Community the task of promoting equal opportunities for men and women. It is not only the culmina tion of a process which began with the White Paper on Growth, Com petitiveness, Employment in 1993, but also the recognition that the roots of the present situation go back 25 years, to the economic shocks of the 1970s, and the appar ent inability of the European economic system to recover suffi ciently from periods of economic downturn. The third, and most re cent of these shocks, aggravated by the failure of economic policy to maintain growth in the last decade, has brought us to the present situ ation. In the turmoil of the early 1990s, half of the new jobs created in the period of rapid growth of the late 1980s were lost — 4. 9 million between 1991 and 1994 (though as noted in last year's Employment Report, employment in SMEs in creased between 1988 and 1995, compensating in some degree for job losses in larger enterprises). Unem ployment soared to new peaks, exceeding 11% on average for the first time ever in 1994. Neither the production system by itself nor the macro-economic policies underpin n i ng it seemed capable of generating the growth of output needed to deal with the employ m e nt problem. In a^world of increasing globalisation} attention turned to improving the perfor m a n ce E u r o p e an t he employment system within the con text of stability-oriented economic policies and structural reforms aimed at increasing the employ ment-content of growth. of Meeting the challenge of insuffi cient growth and intolerable unemployment requires a profound modernisation of Europe's economy and its social system for the 21st Century without giving away the basic principles of solidarity which should remain the trademark of Eu rope. The completion of the Single Market and-the move to Economic and Monetary Union will bring the potential for greater prosperity, W en en •8 -6 - 7- An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies stability and choice to citizens both as workers and consumers. This is being matched by the modernisa tion of the labour market and reform of social security systems to bring about a new balance between flexibility and security. The new Treaty provisions strike a new balance by making employ ment an explicit objective and by giving the Union a role in develo ping a common e m p l o y m e nt strategy. Economic and Monetary Union and employment Europe has now left behind a long period of monetary instability and high inflation. There is now a strong political will to maintain monetary stability, to be achieved through the third phase of Economic and Mon etary Union and the convergence programmes. EMU, as a fundamen tal change in the economic policy framework, will influence growth and employment performances through its impact on the policy- mix in the Euro zone as a whole. Successful implementation of the employment strategy will be even more important under EMU. Efforts undertaken in the late 1980s and 1990s to create a single market was a major supply-side stimulus for the European econ omy. The introduction of the single currency, together with the im plementation of the Action plan measures, will significantly im prove the functioning of the single market. This will provide the Euro pean economy with the solid economic basis which will help to ensure that EMU will work. The objective of Economic and Mon etary Union is to modernise the European economy, to bring about a more integrated system aimed at monetary stability, leading to an increase in long-term rates of econ omic growth and employment with living standards in the Member States rising in step. and r a te Under EMU, the suppression of ex change c u r r e n cy disturbances between participating countries eliminates an important obstacle to growth. At the same time, the adoption of a common, price-stability oriented, monetary policy, the budgetary discipline re sulting from compliance with the convergence criteria and the Sta bility and Growth Pact will reduce considerably the risks of conflict be tween budgetary and monetary policies. In such a context, it is prob able that wage developments will also take into account the objective of price stability and the profita bility of employment-creating investment. Thus the risk of a sta bility conflict, which, in the past, repeatedly contributed to the un satisfactory and employment performance of the Community, could be avoided in the coming years. growth Although EMU as such is not an "employment policy", it provides the opportunity to achieve a macro- economic policy mix favourable to a sustainable growth of output above the rate of growth of labour produc tivity, t h us r e s u l t i ng in net employment creation. In this way, it would fulfil its role as set down in Article 2 of the Treaty to achieve a high level of employment and of so cial protection, the raising of the standard of living and quality of life, and economic and social cohe sion and solidarity among Member States'. The macroeconomic policy mix is determined by the interaction be tween the three main variables: money, public budgets and wages. A single monetary policy will strongly influence the macroecon omic policy-mix of the whole Euro-area. While the primary ob jective of this is price stability, a second objective is to support the general economic policies in the Community, including explicitly sustainable and non-inflationary growth and a high level of employ ment. The more the stability task of monetary policy is facilitated by ap propriate budgetary measures and wage developments, the more it will be favourable to growth and em ployment. Expenditure from national budgets amounts to about half of Com munity GDP and budgetary policies will remain under Member State responsibility. In addition to the provisions for achieving and près- N erving budgetary discipline, the Q t> Stability and Growth Pact will rein- force the implementation of the « required discipline, thus ensuring that no conflict wilL occur between budgetary and monetary policies. In addition, the implementation of this Pact will allow Member States to restore the room for manoeuvre that budgetary and fiscal auth o r i t i es need for an optimal management of their economies in a full EMU. Wage developments will continue to be determined largely through negotiations between the social partners, though with significant differences in the specific features of national systems across the Union. Wages, including social con tributions, account for about half of Community GDP. The macroecon omic policy mix will be favourable to growth and employment insofar w o as wage developments do not con tribute to a stability conflict with the single monetary policy and preserve, or strengthen as appro p r i a t e, t he p r o f i t a b i l i ty of employment-creating investment. Wage developments by country, re gion, qualification and sector will not be the same all over the Euro- area. Differences in price and productivity trends and competi tiveness will play their normal role in the wage-setting process at all levels. Because of their role in determining wage developments, the Social Partners have an important respon sibility under EMU to facilitate the pursuit of a growth and employ ment-oriented policy, as recognised by the European Council at Amster dam. EMU in no way replaces the need to carry out the structural reforms re quired to improve the functioning of the labour market which have been defined by successive European Councils since Essen in December 1994. These reforms are an integral part of the European employment strategy, with or without monetary union, and efforts to pursue them must continue as before, reinforced by the surveillance procedure pro vided for in the new employment Title. EMU focuses attention on mechan isms of economic adjustment and their effectiveness. Under EMU, a principal adjustment mechanism to respond to short-term fluctuations in economic activity in particular parts of the Union are the automat ic fiscal stabilisers rather than discretionary changes in monetary or budgetary policy. Adjustment of exchange rates is no longer an op tion with a single currency. Policy will therefore need to ensure that such stabilisers are allowed to func w S a •T3 An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies tion as effectively as possible, so that regions suffering a decline in economic activity and increased un employment will benefit from the higher net fiscal transfers from na tional budgets (in the form of lower tax payments and higher social transfers) which are the automatic result of their operation. secure balanced development of em ployment across the Union at a rate high enough to ensure jobs for both the unemployed and newcomers on to the labour market? These issues are addressed below. Major trends in 1996 At the same time, there will need to be a greater focus on achieving bal anced regional development to prevent excessively large migration of labour in response to lack of jobs, which needs to be avoided in order to maintain economic cohesion within the Union. This will con tinue to be a major objective for the Structural Funds. Labour market adjustment is the other major element in these mech anisms. Is the European labour market sufficiently robust to face up to the challenge of helping to More detailed analysis of the trends highlighted below is set out in the background analysis annexed to this report. Economic performance evens out Between 1991 and 1996 the EU economy registered its worst post war performance over a 5-year period in growth and employment. While this poor performance has often been attributed to globalisa tion or the introduction of new 1 Annual change in employment in the Union, 1970-96 Annual % change I Annual change in total employment Unemployment rate 1112;: 1. 2 million Jobs • 2. 8 million jobs: 1975 1980*4 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 "1992 1994 1996 9- An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies technologies, it was mainly caused by the deep recession of 1992/93, which resulted from a stability con flict: initial overheating in the production process was aggravated by a distorted policy-mix, amplified by the effects of German unifica tion. After a setback to economic growth in the second half of 1995 and in early 1996, a gradually strengthen ing upturn in economic activity seems to be underway, under pinned by a sound re-balancing of the macroeconomic policy-mix and progress towards convergence. Combined with low and declining inflation rates and prospects for moderate wage increases, these have paved the way for a significant easing in monetary conditions. Thus the stance of economic policies has become more conducive to sus tained expansion of output, investment and employment. For the Community as a whole GDP growth is expected to be 2. 4% in 1997 and 2. 8% in 1998. This pro gressive acceleration in GDP growth above the upward trend in labour productivity is forecast to re sult in employment growth of 0. 5% and 0. 9% in 1997 and 1998, a cumu lative increase of about 2 million jobs. However, the decline in unem ployment will remain somewhat limited (from 11% of the labour force in 1996 to 10. 3% in 1998) since labour supply is still expected to rise by about 0. 5% a year. The policy challenge to These positive developments rely upon the continuation of a favour able policy mix, including credible budgetary policies and appropriate wage behaviour. Budgetary consoli dation combined with the political determination to start EMU as an nounced t he c o n t r i b u te improvement in the economic pros pects themselves. The inherent risks in these forecasts are about the credibility of pursuing such a strategy and the timely realisation of the third stage of EMU. Slippage from budgetary targets would put at risk the favourable trends in in terest and exchange rates and therefore would undermine the prospects not only for EMU but also for stronger economic growth and employment. 2 Employment rates in the Union, US and 3 Unemployment rates in the Union, US Japan, 1974-96' ^% popular ,«4 and Japan, 1974-96. „ % labour force 12 r i « •Japan; ie- IM 50 l ' ' ' ' ' ' i «. < i. i i • i 5Q 1974 W61878196019821984 ) 986198618901992 19941996 197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996 -10 Employment and unemployment rates stabilise 1996 can be described as a year of "time-out" in terms of employment and unemployment. The situation did not get much worse, but neither did it improve significantly. The in crease in employment which began in 1995 faltered in 1996, rising by less than 600 000, half a& much as in 1995. The total number employed in the Union is now just over 148 million, still over 3 million below the peak of 151. 5 million reached in 1991. There has been only slow pro gress in making up the 5 million job losses of the early 1990s, let alone in achieving the rate of expansion of jobs which is needed to provide em i n c r e a s ed ployment numbers of people who would like to work (Graph 1). the for The employment rate in the Union has therefore also remained vir tually unchanged since last year, at just over 60% of working-age popu lation. In both the US and Japan, by contrast, the employment rate reached a post-war. high in 1996, in line with the upward trend of the last 25 years (Graph 2). Furthermore, in 1996 as in previous years, part-time employment ac counted for all of the net addition to jobs and the proportion of people working part-time went up again. H Because of the low growth in em ployment, there was no reduction in unemployment. Unemployment even edged up at the beginning of 1996 to reach 11% in March and since then it has hardly changed at all, but then stabilised and in July 1997, the rate was still 10. 6%. In 8 of the 15 Member States, the rate of unemployment in July 1997 was higher than in 1994, in Germany An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies markedly so. Unemployment also rose m Japan for the fifth consecu tive year. In the US, on the other hand, unemployment continued to fall and in 1996 was only just above the lowest rate of the last 22 years (Graph 3). Young people — brighter signs For young people of both sexes under 25, though participation con tinued to decline (to 47%), it did so at only half the rate of the preceding four years. The long-term trend to wards a higher proportion of young people remaining longer in educa tion and training was still evident, but the rise was smaller as job op^ portunities increased. Youth unemployment has declined somewhat over the last 15 years Although it still remains at around twice the rate for adults (around 20% as against under 10%), the composition of the unemployed has changed significantly over the last decade as the relative number of young unemployed has declined as a result of both demographic factors and falling participation, while the 4 Unemployment «*** by sex in the Union, 1963. July 1997 % labour fore* Q W «J relative number of adult unem ployed is much higher. More jobs for women Almost two-thirds of the net addi tional jobs created in the Union as a whole in the two years 1994-96 went to women, continuing the trend of the recent past. While part- time work has enabled many women to enter the labour market it has not yet contributed to a greater equality of treatment be tween part-time and full-time workers. Employment of women had remained broadly unchanged during the recession years, while that of men had fallen markedly The average rate of unemployment of both men and women in the Union has remained virtually un changed for the past two years although the rate for women is still some 3 percentage points higher than for men at 12. 7% compared with 9. 4%. Unemployment of men tends to be more affected by fluctu ations in economic activity than that of women, both because of the greater concentration of men in cy clically s e n s i t i ve sectors — manufacturing and construction, in particular — and because of the trend increase in the participation of women in the labour force as com pared with the trend decline in the case of men. (Graph 4). Long-term unemployment — an intractable problem Long-term unemployment rates have largely followed the trend in overall unemployment rates over the last 15 years, withalagof a year or more. Although total unemploy ment began to fall in 1985, the rate of long-term unemployment conti n t0 rise **<* only showed signs of falling in 1986, when total unem ployment was falling for the second year running. Both then continued to tall together until 1990. While unemployment then began to rise with the onset of recession, long- t e rm r a t es u n e m p l o y m e nt continued falling and only in c r e a s ed in 1992, a nd have continued to do so since, reaching 5% m 1996 (Graph 5). The evidence of the last 12 years suggests, therefore, that for long- term unemployment, even more than for unemployment, to fall there needs to be both relatively 8 Total and kng-tetm unemployment rate» in the Union, 1986 to 1996 *tabour*xca •UmmploystUtyiar •UrwmployBQSiywf 6 Change in employment and GDP in the Union, 1974-96 fl Annual Î4 change —E m f t o p rm •••ÛDP togged 2 quaitas 1963 1995 m 1991 1993 199$ 1097 1«61M719M198918901»11W 1 N 3 1m m^mt I*M i«* i«i i«o m im 1* IN, it» im im 1 W* 1 1- An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies strong and continuous growth in employment. A more detailed ana lysis of these three policy areas (youth employment, equal oppor t u n i t i es l o n g - t e rm unemployment) will be published later in the year. and Underlying factors — structural trends and adjustments The likely responses of the Euro pean economy to economic shocks and structural changes is a function of existing underlying economic trends and in the way in which the European economy, and in particu lar, the labour market, adjusts to these. The challenges facing the Union over the immediate future will raise serious questions about the strength and flexibility of those adjustment mechanisms and about whether Europe is ready to face up to them. The following sections pro vide an analysis of some of the reasons behind the overall trends described above. Deeper analysis of all these issues depends on the con- t i n u ed provision of timely, harmonised and consistent labour market statistics and, in particular, the need to move towards a con t i n u o us l a b o ur force survey providing at least quarterly results. Output growth and its employment content — two necessary elements The slowdown in employment growth in 1996 is a reflection of the slowdown in output growth in the Union — from 2V2% in 1995 to 1V2% in 1996. Indeed, the increase in em ployment which occurred in the two years 1994-96 was in line with the long-term trend relationship in the EU between GDP and employment growth which implies that growth of GDP of just under 2% a year is necessary in order to generate any rise in the number employed at all. This relationship has remained very stable over the past 20 years, though there are signs of a very small increase in the employment- content of growth over the past 10 years as compared with the pre vious 10 years (Graph 6). The policy challenge A central aim of policy across the European Union is to seek to ensure that the employment-content of growth is compatible with other economic objectives, such as the maintenance of competitiveness over the long-term. There are sub- s t a n t i al differences between countries with comparable income levels in both the way in which GDP is generated and the number of jobs which it supports. This suggests that the number of people in work is far from being the mechanistic result of market forces operating in an institutional vacuum and that there is a significant element of choice over this (in a societal rather than an individual sense) and that, therefore, this provides an oppor tunity for policy action. in • The disparities in GDP per head between European Union Mem ber States are partly associated with differences in levels of la bour productivity, partly with differences in rates of employ the more that ment, prosperous countries tend to have both higher levels of pro ductivity per hour worked and a higher proportion of their popu lation in work. The association, however, is by no means syste matic and there are striking differences in both productivity and employment rates between countries with similar levels of prosperity. • While some countries succeed better than others in attaining high rates of employment, the additional jobs which result are not concentrated in particular sectors and differences in the pattern of jobs between high em ployment rate countries seems to reflect differences in com parative advantages. Tourism is an example of a sector which of fers good prospects for growth and employment. It already ac counts for some 5. 5% of GDP and 6% of total employment, ;and this is forecast to rise to 9% by the end of the next decade. Simi larly, the social economy, with 5% of total employment and 6% of the enterprises in the private sector, could be an important potential source of new jobs if given the right support. Getting the unemployed into jobs A relatively small proportion of those who had beeiumemployed in 1995 had succeeded in finding a job one year later. Over the Union as a whole, under a third of men unem ployed one year previously had found a job in 1996 (at the time when the LFS was conducted). Half were still unemployed — which is consistent with the figures for long- term unemployment — while the remainder (17%) had left the labour force completely (in the sense that they were no longer actively looking for work). For women, the propor tion of those unemployed in 1995 finding work in 1996 was even lower, at only just over a quarter, with half remaining unemployed and 23% becoming inactive. w o -12 The figures for individual Member States are broadly similar to those for the Union as a whole. In Bel gium and Ireland, the proportion was under 20%, in both cases the low chances of the unemployed find ing work being reflected in the figures for long-term unemploy ment which are much higher than in the rest of the Union. In Ireland, therefore, the high rate of net job creation (of 372% in 1996) has not been of much benefit to the unem ployed, with most of the increase in employment being fed by a growing labour force (by emigrants return ing from abroad as well as by increased participation) rather than by people moving from unem ployment into jobs. The policy c h a l l e n ge The inability of the unemployed to get back into work has long been a feature of the European labour market, even in periods of job growth, although this is certainly a necessary pre-requisite. • a large proportion of the unem ployed are not equipped for the labour market: in 1996, 35% of both unemployed men and women over 25 had no educa tional qualifications beyond basic schooling; • maintaining the employability of the unemployed, and particu larly the long-term unemployed is essential if this is to be im proved; • early identification and early ac tion are among the ways in which policy can better target the reintegration of the unem them ployed becoming unem ployed. long-term prevent and W O An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies Labour force t r e n ds — participation and employment The increasing number of job oppor tunities has affected labour force trends. During the late 1980s, in creased participation combined with the growth of working-age population added almost 172 million people a year to the Union's labour force. In the four years 1990-94, falling participation reduced total labour force growth by 1 million a year, so that instead of expanding by 5 million or so over the whole period, it only increased by just over 1 million. The decline in the availa bility of jobs was, therefore, accompanied by a fall in the propor tion of people of working age actively looking for work. This had a substantial effect in containing the rise in unemployment. boom generation. The ageing of the population is set to have major con sequences both for the European labour force and social protection budgets in 10 to 15 years time as post-war generations reach retire ment age. Projections suggest that by 2015, the working-age popula tion in the Union will be declining in almost all Member States and well over half will be 40 years old or more. • The underlying demographic trends in the Union have clear implications for the productivity and adaptability of the labour force. The full impact on the la bour force of these demographic trends will depend on future changes in participation rates. The experience of the last decade shows clearly that changes in these are closely to changes in both economic activ ity and employment. linked Over the two years 1994-96, while the participation of men in the la bour force declined, this decline was much less marked than in the re cession years. With the exception of the under 25 year-olds, participa tion of women continued to increase, at an even greater rate. • In 1996, with the renewed rise in participation some 850 000 people joined the labour force — almost as much as over the entire four years of recession. The increase in the number in employment in 1996 was, therefore, accompanied by a rise rather than a fall in unemploy ment. The policy challenge The average age of the European population will increase signifi cantly in future y e a rs as a consequence of declining birth rates, increasing life expectancy and the ageing of the post-war baby- 13 If current trends in participation continue, they could reduce the extent of the ageing of the Union's labour force over the next 10 years or so, but there after, they are~unlikely to offset the demographic trend towards ageing significantly. The press ing need will be to maintain the skills and capabilities of an ageing work force. This empha of sises reversing the trend for men to withdraw from the work force at an ever younger age, though this itself requires a fundamental change both in attitudes towards older workers among employers and in the underlying labour market situation which for too long has been characterised by too many people looking for too few jobs. _ importance the • This prospective decline in the Union's labour force should not An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies be seen as a solution to the un employment problem. The low employment rate in the Union similar de compared with veloped economies demonstrates the extent of the labour reserve to be absorbed (over 20 million). A detailed ana lysis of these developments is presented in the main report. • The Union's employment prob lem will not go away as prospective demographic trends unfold. On the contrary, it could well become more acute as the population ages and as their need for income support grows Flexibility and employability — the skills gap There are some signs of a widening skills mismatch in the Union. Occu pational trends in the Union are reinforcing the two-speed labour market, with an increasing concen tration of employment, and new jobs, in the high-level occupations. Virtually all the net addition to em ployment in the two years 1994-96 was accounted for by a growth in jobs with a relatively high skill con t e n t. While the n u m b er of managers, professionals and tech nicians increased considerably, by over 2% a year, the number of people in elementary occupations declined. The only less-skilled jobs which expanded significantly were those for sales and service workers, and around two-thirds of the net addition to these jobs went to women. There is some evidence to suggest- that skill shortages may be a par ticular problem for small and medium-sized enterprises. Com paring surveys of enterprises carried out in 1989 and 1994, the shortage of adequately skilled ap plicants continued to be a greater problem for enterprises with less than 200 employees than for larger enterprises. In effect, in 1989, be tween 59% and 62% of large enterprises in all size classes above 200 employees considered said this an important or very important ob stacle to employing more people. In 1994, however, only for enterprises with fewer than 200 employees (41%) or 20O-499 employees(33%) was this still a major obstacle. The figures for larger enterprises of 500-999 (26%) and of over 1000 em fallen (16%) had ployees considerably. It should be borne in mind, however, that economic con ditions were very different in these two years: 1989 was a year of high employment growth, while in 1994 labour demand was «at its lowest level for many years. Although participation in education and vocational training beyond basic schooling has risen markedly in all Member States in recent years, it remains the case that a disproportionate number of the un- employed have insufficient qualifications to be able to compete effectively for jobs. In 1996, over the Union as a whole, over half of all men aged 25 to 64 had no educa tional qualifications beyond basic schooling and just under half of women. By contrast, only just over a third of men who were in employ m e n t, and about same proportion of women, were in a similar position. the This difference is particularly signi ficant in many Northern Member States where a relatively high pro portion of economic activity is in comparatively advanced sectors, such as business and financial ser vices, where jobs typically have a high skill content, and a low propor tion in sectors where low-skilled jobs predominate, such as agricul ture, basic manufacturing and distribution. For women, there is an even bigger difference in educational attain ment levels between those with jobs and those who are inactive than be- tween the employed and the unemployed. Over the Union as a whole, 63% of women aged 25 to 59 who were economically inactive had no educational qualifications be yond basic schooling as opposed to only 34% of those in employment. As noted in Employment in Europe, 1996, the difference is significant in all Member States but is especially pronounced in countries where the participation of women in the work force is still comparatively low, such as* Spain (84% of inactive women having no qualifications as against 51% of those with jobs) and Ireland (62% against 27%). This almost cer tainly reflects in part differences in attitudes towards working as be- „ tween well educated and less well p educated women in these countries, j> but it also reflects the relative lack « of job opportunities for those with only basic education. The policy challenge To meet the challenges of the next decade, we need a fundamental re form of our systems of education and training, based on the concept of lifelong learning, to raise skill levels throughout the labour force, beginning with our young people, and continuing through to those at the end of their working life, but whose usefulness we will need in the years to come. Over a third of young people aged 20 to 24 join the labour force with no qualifications be yond basic schooling. Efforts should be made to bring average w o 14 levels up to those of the best Member States. For those who find it difficult to benefit from formal education, a wider range training oppor of vocational tunities found, preferably with a work experi ence component to reinforce the possibilities of obtaining em ployment at the end of it. should be the • Bridging the gap between school and work is a crucial stage, whatever the level of a person's qualifications. Apprenticeship is one of the most effective means of helping young people to de and velop competencies which match la bour market needs, and thus make this transition. Different to apprenticeship approaches should be developed across the Union, accompanied by adequ ate careers guidance. provision skills of that to ensure • At the same time, a policy of increasing skill levels must go hand in hand with continued ef forts labour markets are sufficiently flexible and that labour costs are suffi ciently conducive to job creation to provide employment oppor tunities for those whose skill levels are remain likely limited irrespective of the kind and extent of training received. This means, in particular, that the overall cost of employment for the latter, including the non- wage an appropriate level in relation to productivity, and that artificial barriers inhibiting job creation are removed element, to at is • But this is merely to lay the foundations of the flexible and adaptable labour force of the fu ture. The speed of technological change is such that the labour w o An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies long-term unemployment and increasing employability. • The Union has no shortage of potential entrepreneurs, nor do our new businesses fare any worse on average than those of our competitors. It is neverthe less, important for our education systems to encourage the devel opment of entrepreneurial skills and an enterprise culture. • There should also be a new re form of social protection systems to make them more employ ment-friendly. Income maintenance programmes alone do nothing to promote the em ployability or the security of those temporarily excluded from the labour market. The sums spent on unemployment benefit and other passive labour market measures, which still make up some two-thirds of total labour market expenditure, should be redirected and mobilised for pro moting and re-integration into working life. Such a restructuring of public expenditure is important in the longer term in order to reduce dependency and social exclusion as well as to help people realise employability Change in part-time and foil-time employment, 1987*96 2 % Iota) tnploymaoiJR base yaar 199719M1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 19M 1 9» 1996 force of the future will be in creasingly required to change and adapt to new skills and ca pacities, and to radically change jobs frequently over the lifetime of work. This means that train ing must not only be aimed at those at the beginning of their working life, but at everyone right up to the end of their work ing life. Such a strategy of skills-upgrading is the only way in which the Union will meet the challenges of adjusting to the new environment. • Unemployment in Europe is con centrated among the low-skilled, or those who have lost their skills. The seemingly intractable nature of long-term unemploy ment is partly a reflection of this. A major reduction in unemploy in ment, long-term unemployment in particular, will not occur unless the skill levels of those affected can be raised through training. and • Occupational segregation be tween women and men removes an element of flexibility in the labour market. Girls and boys should be encouraged to diver sify their occupational choices, to greater thus contributing desegregation on labour the market and greater chances for women to find jobs. • Since high-skilled jobs in the Union are disproportionately lo cated in the growth sectors, the problem of the skills gap is likely to become more acute over time, with an increasing proportion of those with only basic qualifica tions it ever more difficult to find employment. Up grading and broadening skills while in work could be the most significant and cost effective in preventing in vestment finding -15 An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies their full potential — for the good of the economy as well as themselves. A triple-pronged strategy is there fore called for: improving the initial education and training of young people to help them into the labour force and to enable them to adapt to new challenges later in life; a posi tive approach to upgrading the skills of the existing work force throughout their working life and an active programme of training for the unemployed, particularly the long-term unemployed. The Euro pean Social Fund will underpin this strategy. Flexibility and work organisation The increasing flexibility in work ing patterns noted in last year's Employment in Europe report con tinued in 1996. Beyond the overall job turnover of 10 million jobs or more created and destroyed every year in the Union, the prevalence of the standard working week, a standard contract or a standard career with a lifetime job is gradually declining. During the recession, all of the net addition to jobs was in part-time working, suggesting a flexible response to difficult labour market conditions. While there was some net addition to full-time jobs in 1996, the long- term trend towards more part-time working is continuing (Graph 7). 17% of all employees now work part-time. The long-term rise in part-time working among men has been common to all Member States. In the 6 years 1990-96, the propor tion of men employed part-time has increased from under 4% to 5V2% in the Union as a whole and there has so far been little sign of this trend abating as total employment has increased. The trend rise in part-time working women also continued in 1996, with over 31V2% of all women in employ ment working part-time. Part-time jobs for women accounted for around 60% of the rise in the num ber of women employed during the year. While 12% of the Union's labour force have fixed term contracts there is wide variation between Member States in their use which reflects the legislation and regula tions in force. These affect the operation of the labour market, as well as the behaviour of both em ployers and workers, leading them to choose different forms of flexi bility. What is much less evident is whether these different forms of flexibility affect employment per formance, growth of output, or standards of living. Comparisons based on the OECD index of regula- tion, a r e l a t i v e ly subjective measure, show at best only a weak correlation between these vari ables. The policy challenge The E u r o p e an employment strategy which has been pursued since 1994 has rightly placed a strong emphasis on increasing flex ibility in labour markets. The type of flexibility which will be required of the European economy in a con text of a fully-functioning Single Market and Economic and Mon etary Union will be much more complex than simply deregulating labour markets. Non-national population by citizenship in Member States, 1995 % population Hourly labour costs and value added per hour worked in NUTS 1 regions, 1992 Value added per hour (ECU) •: •'•• • • mm 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 05. 0 4 40 • 35 • 30 • 25 - 20 15 10 5 0 10 15 20 25 30 fi ÛK C OR iitlNIi: imf::S!?:;5:tlKii;€t5t Cost | *r hour (ECU) 16- o 3 a o An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies • The new kind of flexibility should be a parallel process of continuing the structural re forms in both markets for goods and services, and in labour mar kets. Deregulation and greater competition in goods and ser vices markets should be seen as a way of improving productivity and job creation on a lasting basis. This is particularly true in services, where there is still enormous potential for job cre ation in a whole range of activities. measures to maintain and up grade skills. • The Commission will intensify efforts to simplify and improve the business environment, in cluding the setting up of th eBusiness Environment Task Force in response to the invita tion the Amsterdam from European Council. Flexibility and labour cost dispersion • Flexibility in product markets means flexibility at the level of the firm. Such flexibility will re quire an increasing focus on new types of work organisation, which may lead to more flexible patterns of working time. The 'flexible firm' should become the norm, not the exception. In in troducing new patterns of working, a certain number of principles should be respected: they should be specific to the in dividual plant or office, and they should be negotiated between the employers and the workers. The new agreement on part-time working negotiated by the Social Partners at European level in the context of the Social Protocol should be seen as a first step in the search for such preferred strategies. • Flexibility and security need not be mutually exclusive. To a growing number of people, job security will probably no longer mean a job for life, but the de mands of new technology and the new flexibility mean that a new partnership should be de veloped workers between employers and governments to guarantee employability throug life. This hout foremost, means, the working and first Labour costs vary considerably across the Union, ranging from around 5 ECU per hour in industry in Portugal in 1992 to around 23 ECU per hour in most German re gions, and ECU 27 in Hamburg. These differences largely reflect variations in labour productivity (Graph 8). In terms of unit labour costs, there is relatively little vari- ation across t he Union and, certainly, no tendency for unit costs to be lower in places where the aver age cost of employment is also low. Productivity differences tend to compensate for labour cost dif ferences and there is, therefore, little incentive in this regard for firms to shift production from one Member State to another — at least at the aggregate level. Differences in labour costs between regions are much less pronounced in the US, and there is compara tively little variation in the unit costs of producing in one part of the US than another. This is only to be expected, however, since the US has effectively been a single economy for a long time, has a single cur rency and enjoys a higher degree of economic integration between the individual states than is yet the case in Europe. In terms of labour market adjustment, a more rele vant comparison is between the 17 extent of labour cost differences within Member States in Europe and within different parts, or broad regions, of the US. Average labour costs in the two hig hest-cost regions were around 30% higher than in the two lowest in four of the five largest European coun tries in 1992. In the fifth country, Germany, the difference was 18%, if the new Lander are excluded. In the US broad regions, the difference was between 20 and 30% in each case. Using a more sophisticated statistical measure of disparity (the variance or standard deviation) and weighting regions according to the numbers employed, all of the nine US regions except two have a smal ler variation in average labour costs than is the case in European coun tries. There also tends to be less variation in unit labour costs between US States than European regions within countries, especially in Spain and the UK This suggests that economies are more flexible in the US than in some parts of Eu rope, or t h at there are fewer obstacles to mobjjity of both pro ducers and workers, in the sense that there is more of a tendency for market forces to eliminate any unit labour cost differences which emerge (through, for example, en couraging shifts in economic activity between States). A more de tailed analysis is presented in the main report. The policy challenge The Amsterdam European Council stressed the need to make tax and social security systems more em ployment-friendly, and to create a tax environment that stimulates enterprise and the creation of jobs. In particular, the prevailing struc ture of the tax system in Member An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies States, and the scale of the tax wedge (between the cost of labour to employers and employees' take- home pay) need to be re-examined in the light of the effect on employ- ment growth, especially of less-skilled, lower-paid workers. • Member States should have flex ibility in choosing the method of reducing taxes on labour and the means of financing those reduc tions. However, there are great benefits to be gained from ex changing and experience these issues as well as from coordinat ing tax measures as part of a Community-wide effort to re duce unemployment. information regarding Migration and mobility Mobility of the labour force is one of the ways in which the labour mar ket brings about adjustment to long-term divergence in economic and employment opportunities be tween countries and regions — divergences which s t r u c t u r al policies seek to minimise. As time goes on, however, the need for an adjustment to long-term diver gences should decline as a more balanced economic development is achieved and there is greater econ omic and social cohesion between countries and regions Some 5% of people resident in Union Member States who are of working-age are non-nationals (Graph 9). Of these, around a third come froin other EU countries. Although most Member States in the Union have experienced net im migration since the late 1980s, which has added to their population of working age, the scale has been relatively small. Only in Germany, Greece and Austria has net immi gration consistently amounted to much more than 0. 3% of population over this whole period, and this has now declined. The peak period of net immigration, which was around the turn of the decade when it reached 1% of population in Ger many and Austria and just over Va% in Greece, mainly because of in flows from Central and Eastern Europe, now seems to have passed. Some 30% of immigrants into Mem ber States are returning nationals and another 17% citizens of another Member State. Immigration into the Union from outside amounted to under V2% of the Union's popula tion of working age in 1995. This is only slightly lower than the inflow into the US. Moreover, in the EU, about half of the inflow of migrants was offset by people emigrating from the Union (more than the very low outflow from the US). Since this is around twice the increase in the natural growth of population, the inflow of migrants is making a sig nificant contribution to the growth of working-age population and to the Union's potential labour force. The inflow is particularly import ant in Member States such as Germany where population is natu rally falling. The scale of labour movement in the US is greater than in Europe, but not significantly so. In practice, while movements over long dis tances, from one part of the country to another, are more frequent than between different parts of Europe, the scale of migration between re gions or states within these 'parts' or broad regions (within, say, the Mid-West or the North-East) is only slightly higher than between re gions in Union Member States. In 1993-94,an average of just over 2V2% of the resident population moved between either state or broad region in the US, which com pares with a figure of just under 1V2% who moved between either NUTS 1 regions or Member States in Europe at about the same time. Migration between regions in Mem ber States is not so different from movement between states in the US. In 1993-94, an average of just under 1V2% of people (14 in 1000) in each of the 9 broad regions of the US moved from one state to another within that region. Across the Union, significant num bers of people regularly travel quite long distances from their homes to their places of work, and in some cases even cross national borders. Such commuting serves to enlarge what might normally be defined as a pineal labour market and is a far •more common occurrence than people moving house to take up em ployment. In 1995, just under 372% of em ployees lived in one NUTS 1 region and worked in another. In Belgium, the figure was substantially above the Union average at almost 13%, and in Austria, it. was over 10%, mostly consisting of those travel ling to B r u s s e ls and Vienna respectively. Around V2% of employees (600 000 people) in the Union in 1995 lived in one country and worked in another. Half of these worked in another Member State, the other half in a country outside the Union, (mainly Switzerland). Not all of these necessarily commute on a daily basis, but may work in another country for a lengthy period of time without changing their place of residence. The great majority, how ever, almost certainly commute regularly. w - 18 An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies The policy challenge There are various obstacles to mi g r a t i on between E u r o p e an countries, such as cultural and lin guistic difficulties, rigidities in regulations, the spillover effect of restrictions on third country mi grants, and racist attitudes. These are difficult to overcome through economic and labour market incen tives to migration. • The adjustments required in» a more integrated European la bour market do not, however, call for large increases in migra tion or geographical mobility. The development of EMU should make wage and price compari sons more transparent, but other factors play a possibly greater part in the employment- wage decision. The need is to provide a situation where poten tial migrants have a real choice — between the opportunity to stay and the security to move, through adequate rates of job creation where they live, and the dismantling of artificial barriers to their ability to work else where. • Promoting job opportunities in potential migration areas — both those which send and re ceive migrants — will decrease barriers and improve integra tion. In particular, such policies will address the problem of dis crimination labour in markets based on fears of jobs being taken by those coming from elsewhere. local through • Beyond this, policy should aim at facilitating freedom of move ment removing remaining restrictions on labour mobility (many of which are not actually linked to the labour market, such as pensions and housing), improving information on job opportunities, and extend ing mechanisms such as EURES which help those wishing to move. While barriers to cross- border commuting have been reduced considerably in recent years, there are still significant obstacles, to people working in another Member State. Facilitating mobility adjustments will make a positive contribution to combating emerging skill short ages, correcting productivity differences and thereby promoting growth and employment. Sectoral and occupational mobility The extent of mobility between sec tors is relatively high across the Union. In 1995, job turnover for men was around 16% a year and for women around 19%. These figures, however, conceal substantial dif ferences both between sectors and between Member States. In general, the rate of new entry tends to be higher in sectors which are expanding more than others, although the link with employment growth is not systematic. In par ticular, the scale of sectoral mobility is much higher in sectors like hotels and restaurants (around 25% of all employees in the sector not having worked there the year before), where a high proportion of new entrants tend to be school- l e a v e r s, t h an in sectors like banking and insurance, education or health, where higher education attainment and skill levels required of the work force both limit the number of suitable applicants and make employers reluctant to lose people once they have been re cruited and trained. High rates of labour turnover, in other words, are (N l-H P > &_ 5 03 o 19- not necessarily synonymous with a high degree of competitiveness. The policy challenge Differences in the extent of turn over, however, do not seem to be systematically related to the degree of labour market regulation, or more specifically, to the severity or laxity of protection against dismiss al, which is generally held to affect the willingness of employers to take on new people. Spain, for example, has one of the strongest systems of job protection (as assessed by the OECD) but also one of the highest rates of labour turnover, while Fin land also has a high rate of turnover coupled with an above average de gree of worker protection and Belgium with the lowest turnover rate in the Union is judged to have below average restrictions on dis missal. • Rather than deterring em ployers from hiring new people, tight restrictions on dismissal may alter the way they do so", in particular, by encouraging them to take them on under fixed- term This, contracts. paradoxically, would tend to in crease labour turnover rather than reduce it, and the evidence suggests that this is indeed the case. rate of the • Restrictions on dismissal tend to increase the number of people employed on temporary con tracts and, accordingly, the rate of labour turnover. This could lead to the development of a dual labour market with established employees enjoying a high de gree of protection against losing their jobs and others having little or none. This is not necess arily the _most desirable or efficient way of increasing la bour market flexibility. An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies • There is a need for a radical re labour think of all relevant market systems — employment protection, working time, social protection and health and safety — to adapt them to a world of work which will be organised dif ferently, in which the concept of security for workers has to be reformulated, focusing more on security based on employability in the labour market rather than security in a specific job. • The focus should move away from a simplistic debate about regulation and deregulation to wards a new balance between flexibility and employability se curity, with tangible benefits for both workers and employers. Workers will be better able to combine professional and family life, while employers will be given the opportunity to adapt faster to the increasing changes of the market. Integrating disabled people into the labour market If past trends continue, as the Union's population ages, there will be an increasing proportion of people with disabilities among those of working age. This poses multiple policy dilemmas on a sen sitive issue which has polarised debate in the past and which the Employment in Europe Report this year addresses in a special section. Approximately 17% of the Union's working-age population is ham pered by disabilities. Nearly half of these are in the 50-64 age group. The average employment rate of hampered people in the Union at 44% is nearly 17 percentage points below the overall rate, though this varies markedly between Member States. Rates tend to be higher in countries where the overall employ ment rate is also high. A significant proportion of those who are in em ployment, moreover, tend to be people who have become disabled while working and who have re mained with the same employer, if not necessarily in the same job. In deed, around 10 million people a year are affected by occupational diseases or accidents and injuries at the workplace. Contrary to conven- of tional wisdom, unemployment for disabled people are not much higher in most coun tries than for the rest of the work force. In the Union as a whole, the average rate is under 2 percentage points higher than for the total la bour force. r a t es The proportion who are inactive is, however, considerably higher than for other groups. This is especially so in countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Italy, where family support is still strong. These are also the countries, together with Portugal, where the educational at tainment of disabled people is lower than for the rest of the population and where disproportionate num bers are employed in agriculture and in elementary occupations generally, whereas in other coun tries where disabled people have a similar educational attainment level to the rest of the population there are not significant differences in the sectors and occupations in which they work. The policy challenge In the past, there has been a strong socio-economic bias in many Mem ber S t a t es towards g r a n t i ng disability benefits to those who have difficulty in finding employ ment. As a result, expenditure on such benefits has become the third -20 largest item in the Union's social protection budget after pensions and sickness benefits, amounting to 1072% of the total budget in 1993. This is larger than the amount spent on unemployment benefits (7% in 1993). Two of the main obstacles faced by disabled people in terms of access to employment are prejudice and bias. As a result, there has been an exten sive movement among disabled people for the introduction of anti- discrimination legislation to protect their civil rights and for 'reasonable accommodation' so that they can exercise their right to employment. In economic terms, this is an invest ment in human capital which, as well as the social benefits, promises positive financial returns for State budgets, insofar as additional em ployment generates more tax revenue in place of the expenditure required to support the income of those who are inactive. • Anti-discrimination legislation should be complemented by measures aimed at improving the employability of disabled people, as for example, so strengthening the competitiveness of the Union's work force as well as improving the job prospects of disadvant aged individuals. in^ Sweden, to learn and re-oriented • Quota-levy systems should be completely to respond to new working environ ments where employees are to encouraged change the work process as they learn, so becoming part of a com pany's capital. In such adaptable and employment-friendly envi ronments, with disabilities are much more likely to stay on and develop their per sonal skills. The employment prospects for disabled people, those w o An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies however, cannot be divorced from general labour market con ditions. Disabled people are usually the first to lose their jobs and among the last to get hired: the imposition of quotas is self defeating if the employment- base to which they are applied is shrinking. short-term, there is no convincing evidence that environmental policies are liable to have an ad verse effect on employment or competitiveness overall and in the longer term are likely to strengthen both. Recent analysis suggests that pursuing environmental objectives has, on the whole, a positive, albeit limited employment effect. Q Environment and employment The environment has become an area of significance for employ ment. Environment related jobs include a wide range of activities, with the core ones such as waste water treatment, waste disposal, air pollution control, soil remedia tion and noise abatement providing the bulk of jobs and accounting for at least 1. 5 million jobs or 1% of all employment in the European Union. Other jobs are linked to the provi sion of environmental goods and services which are not for environ mental purposes only and so are less easily identifiable. These in clude: recycling, the use of renewable energy, nature and land scape protection and the renovation of urban areas. Preliminary esti mates suggest that these activities may account for further 1. 5 million jobs in the Union, so increasing em ployment in the environmental sector broadly defined, to around 2% of the Union total. The environ mental sector is a sector with positive forecasts for job growth. Of course, environmental policies may also have adverse effects on employment in other sectors as con trols on pollution and measures to reduce ecological damage are intro duced. Despite the problems that this may cause for particular sec tors or regions, especially in the of consumption Much more important for the sus- t a i n a b i l i ty of growth in the long-term than "green industry* is the problem of the prevailing pat- t e rn and investment. Major investment is likely to be needed in the coming years to renew the current capital stock by putting in place more envi ronmentally-friendly technologies and production methods, especially in manufacturing, agriculture, en ergy and transport. The way forward The 1997 Employment in Europe Report highlights a number of the major factors which are likely to make the long-term environment of the European labour market signi ficantly different in the next two decades than in the last 25 years of the 20th Century. The European employment strategy, built on the concept of em ployment as a common concern, set out in the Amsterdam Treaty, will play an important part in securing a high rate of net job creation which is essential for ensuring the success of EMU. This strategy, initiated at the Essen Summit, combines mac roeconomic stability and structural reforms to modernise the function ing of the labour market. In the coming decade, it must put even more emphasis on the develop ment of a knowledge infrastructure - 2 1- which will ensure sustainable growth in a competitive world econ omy and will enhance human resources, so that everyone in the labour force can maintain and in crease and employability. Flexibility must be built on the confidence of workers in their adaptability and em ployability and on constructing an effective partnership between the work force and employers. skills their At the level of the Union, a number of political decisions have been taken, new commitments made, and new institutional arrangement put in place to focus the employ ment policy actions of the Union and the Member States: • • • the inclusion of the employment Title in the revision of the Treaty will provide the Union with the tools necessary to develop a coor dinated employment strategy adapted to the needs of the 21st Century, while at the same time taking account of the different situations in the Member States; the creation of an Employment Committee provides a forum for promoting coordination between Member States on employment and labour market policies. This Committee will monitor employ ment policies in the Member States and the Community, and advise the Council and the Com mission on such issues; the Commission will draw up employment policy guidelines which will be discussed and ap proved by the European Council after extensive prior consult ations. They will be consistent with the Broad Economic Gui delines; • there will be monitoring and sur veillance of Member States An employment agenda for the year 2000: issues and policies employment policies in the light of these guidelines; • employment will be taken into account in all Community policies and actions, accompa nied by an examination of all relevant existing Community policies to ensure that they are geared towards job creation; Employment policy must respond to global challenges. In the last ana lysis, everything depends on our ability to provide decent and accept ably paid jobs for all of our citizens who want to work. Europe must re spond to that challenge. o 22 ISSN 0254-1475 COM(97) 479 final DOCUMENTS EN 04 17 05 Catalogue number : CB-CO-97-509-EN-C ISBN 92-78-25594-7 Office for Official Publications of the European Communities L-2985 Luxembourg