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Working paper by Torkild Hovde Lyngstad &#38; Torbjørn Skarðhamar, Understanding the Marriage Effect: Changes in Criminal Offending Around the Time of Marriage, FMSH-WP-2013-49, GeWoP-2, octobre 2013.The authorsTorkild Hovde Lyngstad, PhD., is an associate professor at the Department of Sociology and Human Geography at the University of Oslo. His recent work has appeared in Demography, Population Studies and the European Sociological Review.Torbjørn Skardhamar, PhD., is a researcher at Statistics Norway, Division of Social and Demographic Research. His recent publications have appeared in the European Journal of Criminology, Addiction, Criminology and British Journal of Criminology.The textThis article could be elaborated thanks to the financial support from the Norwegian Research Council (grant number 167302/V10) and Statistics Norway which is gratefully acknowledged. Also we would like to thank Jukka Savolainen, Willy Pedersen, TuridNoack, Terje Skjerpen and seminar participants for useful comments on this work. A version of this article was published in the Journal of Research in Crime and Deliquency, January 21, 2013. It was first published by the GEMASS in December 2011 as GeWoP-2.This paper is published by the Groupe d’étude des méthodes de l’Analyse sociologique de la Sorbonne (GEMASS - CNRS, Paris Sorbonne, FMSH) in Paris, under the cover of the Fondation Maison des sciences de l’homme’s collection of working papers.To download this paper on HALSHSAbstractSocial bonding theories argue that marriage has a restraining effect on criminal offending. Given what is known about marriage and union formation in contemporary Western societies, it is realistic to assume that the social and emotional bonding between married partners predates the actual date of marriage. In consequence, if these processes influence criminal behavior, we should expect significant reductions in offending several years prior to marriage. Independently of the social bonding theory, it is possible to treat marriage as an outcome of rather than a causal agent in the process of criminal desistance. An individual who has “cleaned up his act” may be more attractive in the market; marriages may be unlikely to occur at elevated points of the criminal trajectory for this reason. These issues have received limited attention in prior research. In this study we examine criminal offending trajectories using a within-individual design and population-wide register data on Norwegian men who entered marital unions in the years 1995-2001 (N=120,821). Our results show a gradual and substantial decrease in offending levels during the five years prior to marriage, followed by a small but a non-trivial increase after the formalization of the relationship. Overall, the decade around the marital event is characterized by major strides towards criminal desistance. However, the effect of marital event is negligible relative to the amount of desistance that takes place prior to marriage. Earlier research may have overstated the importance of marriage as a discrete life course event as a causal factor in criminal desistance.Keywordsmarriage, desistance from crime, social bonds, investments in relationships, register dataComprendre l’effet du mariage : Changements dans les attitudes criminelles au moment du mariageRésuméLes théories du lien social soutiennent que le mariage a un effet réducteur sur la criminalité. Etant donné ce que l’on sait du mariage et de la formation du couple dans les sociétés occidentales contemporaines, il est réaliste de supposer que le lien social et émotionnel entre les mariés précède en temps la date effective du mariage. Par conséquent, si ces processus influencent le comportement criminel, on devrait attendre des réductions significatives de la criminalité plusieurs années avant le mariage. Indépendamment de la théorie du lien social, il est possible de traiter le mariage comme un résultat plutôt que comme un facteur causal dans le processus de renonciation au crime. Un individu qui s’est “rangé” serait plus attirant sur le marché; les mariages auraient peu de chances d’avoir lieu à des niveaux élevés de trajectoire criminelle pour cette raison. Ces questions ont fait l’objet de peu d’attention dans les travaux de recherche jusqu’ici. Dans cette étude, nous examinons les trajectoires de la criminalité en utilisant une conception intra-individu et un registre de données concernant une population d’hommes norvégiens qui sont entrés en union maritale dans les années 1995-2001(N=120,821). Nos résultats montrent une baisse progressive  et significative des niveaux de criminalité au cours des cinq années précédent le mariage, suivie d’une légère mais non négligeable augmentation après la formalisation de la relation. Surtout, la décennie autour de l’événement marital se caractérise par une très importante avancée en matière de renonciation au crime. Cependant, l’effet de l’événement marital est négligeable comparé au niveau de renonciation atteint avant le mariage. Les études antérieures ont peut-être exagéré l’importance du mariage en tant qu’étape de la vie à l’origine de la renonciation au crime.Mots-clefsmariage, renonciation au crime, liens sociaux, engagement dans les relations, données de registresContentMarriage and crime: theory and evidenceThe process leading up to marriageThe consequences of formal marriage for desistanceIssues with models and measurementResearch questionsData and methodsResearch designResults and discussionOffending declines before marriageThe period following marriageReanalysis with before-marriage/after-marriage indicator variableA decade of desistance?Limitations of the studyConclusionReferencesTo download this paper on HALSHS