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It is not often the case that our own analyses of publisher journal price increases in liblicense-l or lis-e-resources trigger a comment of the analysts at Exane BNP Paribas, one of the top brokers for European Equities.On July 6 we published our analyses on both the Springer 2010 price list (and SCOAP3) and the Elsevier 2010 subscription price list, which got quite some feedback on Twitter, especially our added message that "#Elsevier Medical titles increase by 7.5 % on average for 2010, some by as much as 25%." ( http://twitter.com/bckaemper/status/3171066523 ), a day later BNP Paribas submitted their comment to liblicense-l. As it was distributed only now (3 hrs ago) via liblicense-l and will appear on the liblicense-l web archive only next week, we quote it here in full:From: Sami Kassab [sami.kassab@exanebnpparibas.com]Sent: Friday, August 07, 2009 3:49 AMSubject: Reed Elsevier (-): Announces higher journal priceincreases than expectedHello, please find enclosed a comment on Reed Elsevier (-)regarding its 2010 science journal pricing announcement:*Reed Elsevier has announced its 2010 journal price increasesElsevier has just published its 2010 print journal price list. Weestimate the median price increases at 5% with key titles such asThe Lancet up 9.5% and Cell Press up 4%. While these priceincreases only pertain to print-only subscriptions (c 10% ofdivisional revenues), we believe they suggest that Elsevier hasmaintained an aggressive pricing policy despite current librarybudget constraints. Its main competitor, Springer, also announceda 5% price increase for 2010.* More aggressive pricing than expectedGiven library budget pressure, we have assumed 2010 net priceincreases of 3% in our model (0% for 2010 subscription renewalsand 5% for existing contracts), resulting in -1% Elsevier'sorganic revenue decline in 2010. As is the case elsewhere inMedia, listed prices increases can vary considerably from netprice increases due to significant discounts. We expect pressureon Elsevier's discounts and renewal rates to be under pressure inthe coming months.  We maintain our 2010 organic revenue growthforecasts for Elsevier but they now look conservative.* Open Access is putting pressure on pricingWe see Elsevier's decision to cuts prices for its nuclear physicsjournals by 20% as a reflection of the progress of Open Access,which prevails in this discipline. Should Open Access reachcritical mass in other disciplines, similar pricing pressure islikely. With the FRPAA act likely to pass in the US, Open Accesswill continue to grow.* Cautious view maintainedWe continue to believe the stock could remain 'dead money' untilfurther clarification of the new investment budget and 2010top-line trends. While we would close short positions, wecontinue to prefer Pearson (+) and Wolters Kluwer (-) inpublishing.Sami Kassab--------------------------------------------------------Exane BNP ParibasOffice: + 44 20 7039 9448Mobile:+ 44 7795 528 365What BNP Paribas fails to emphasize is that it is not open access per se that is threatening Elsevier (High Energy Physics since long have had almost 100% open access uptake, so critical mass has long been reached in this special field, quite different from other physics areas), but that they are loosing the battle for authors, possibly due to their reluctance to support SCOAP3. As I wrote, they publish now considerably less than 4 years ago (update: about 30%, for more accurate updated estimates cf. the comment below) and seem to have lost in submissions from authors for their HEP journals. With such a reduction in size, prices also had to come down. In the new open access scholarly publishing market, journals will compete for authors even more than now. SCOAP3 certainly raised the awareness for both the scientific community's expectation to fully convert these journals to OA and the unsustainable prices that had risen to absurd record prices. It is clear that subscriptions are now under even more pressure because of the global economic crisis that especially hit american libraries very hard.For another illustration of the growing impact of hybrid open access programs on online journals prices, this time at Oxford University Press, cf. my newest posting to liblicense-l and lis-e-resources, Disturbing spread of dyscalculia in recent publisher price lists and announcements (Aug 7, 2009)Bernd-Christoph Kämper (@bckaemper), Stuttgart University Library