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John Seaman (2013), China's Growing Natural Gas Insecurity and the Potential of Chinese Shale Gas Asie.Visions 64. China is poised for a dramatic increase in its demand for natural gas. As total energy demand has risen to record levels in the last five years, China has found itself in an increasingly difficult bind: the social and environmental burden from coal is becoming too heavy to bear and a growing dependence on foreign oil is becoming strategically more risky with the passage of time. China’s policy-makers and strategists continue to favor indigenous resources whenever possible, but projected increases in demand are so great and the cost of nuclear and renewable energy sources still so high that natural gas has become an increasingly natural choice. The country’s gas demand is projected to double in the next three years, reaching 260 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) by 2015 as Beijing has set a target to increase the part of natural gas from 4% of China’s energy mix today to more than 8% by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015). Further projections show that Chinese gas demand could reach 400 bcm/y in 2020 and 550 bcm/y or more in 2030.While this growing demand for gas will help China achieve its goals of reducing the carbon intensity of its GDP and cut much of the pollution from coal, it is also leading China further down a path it has long hoped to avoid: greater dependence on strategic energy imports. A pipeline project to pump gas from Turkmenistan through Central Asia began delivering supplies in 2009 and is expected to reach 40 bcm/y in the near future and possibly even 65 bcm/y or more by 2020. Another pipeline from Myanmar is expected to enter into service in 2013 and would be capable of delivering up to 12 bcm/y. Negotiations with Russia for pipelines that could deliver anywhere from 30-70 bcm/y are deadlocked over pricing, but the construction of LNG import terminals suggests that China could be capable of importing between 40-50 bcm/y of this sea-borne gas by 2015 and possibly even 100 bcm/y or more by 2020.China’s increasing reliance on imports is creating a deepening sense of energy insecurity among many policymakers and strategists in Beijing. While there is an element of supply security in the diversification of sources, each of these options comes with its own risks: increasing vulnerability to various geopolitical interests, price volatility and instability in supply regions or along transit routes.Read the full article on the Institut français des relations internationales website.&#160;