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Estimating the likelihood of future C.C. has become a topical matter within the research community. This is the case because of the advancement of science, because of user demand and because of the central role played by climate prediction in guiding adaptation policy. But are probabilities what climate policy really needs? This article reviews three key questions: (1) Why might we (not) need probabilities of C.C.? (2) What are the problems in estimating probabilities? (3) How are researchers estimating probabilities? We conclude that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for climate adaptation policy. Probability assessment in the context of C.C. is always subjective, conditional and provisional. There are various problems in estimating the probability of future C.C., but reflexive human behaviour (i.e. actions explicitly influenced by information) is largely intractable in the context of prediction.