POLITICAL.

From the New York Journal Of cOmmsrcs-
PROSPECTS OF TRADE.
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.. f PROSPECTS OF TRADE.


In his famous letter 20 Mr.. Riyes Of January l6,
ls46, Mr. Lawrence, of Boston, describing The dis
asters which he predicted as consequent on the pas
sage of Mr. Walkers proposed tariff bill, summed
up the whole as follows: al have no hesitation IN
stating that all this will lake place within the space
of sigLesu months from the time this experimental
bill goes into operationj and not specie pa ying
bank doing business will be found in the United
States" rH. .#..


We are not disposed to tribe with the predictions
of such man as Mr.. Lawrence He is one OF the
largest and most respectable merchants and political
economists of the nation, and what he said with
his name attached To IL, ought TO have been, and
doubt was, well considered Hedoes not guess or give
opinion, but estates" matter Of distinct fore
knowledge with him, that these disasters will follow
as consequences upon the passage Of that bill. We
shall feel il duty 10 keep this prophecy where il
will not be forgotten, that it may be seen and
known by the people, whether the prophets Of pro-
lection who speak are great as the profits which
the stock holders put in their pockets. Be il known
then, that the Hon. Abbott Lawrence, Of Boston
states that, at the expiration Of eighteen months
from the first day OF December next, 10 Wit on the
first day Of June, 1913, there will not be specie
paying bank doing business in heseountry.


five live TO see that day Of doom, we shall call
the matter up again, whatever may be the facts
that il may be seen who is prophet and who proph-
ecies falsely. Mr.. Lawrence and his friends can
surely have objection to this for II the fact 10
be So who will shrink from the responsibility OF
having said so' II MIR. Lawrence thinks that the
amendments to the bill, by which articles were
put at twenty-five and some at thirty per cent,
will avert the consequences predicted we hope he
will kindly say so, and relieve those who are alarm
ed at his prediction. But II we are to Judge from
the undated cry Of ruin ruin. which was kept up
10 the last these alterations did not all relieve the
prospect Of universal desolauon.


We also will prophecy, or uther glsss-for 10
guess is our birthright, not to prophecy state
what is in the future. We guess that the LIST day OF
June, l84s, will prove Mr.. Lswrenee's statement
altogether erroneous. We guess the currency OF
the country will then be as sound as Il is now the
banks doing business not only without suspending,
but without pressure upon them, and the country sl
large in a broader and more extended prosperity
than Il has hitherto enjoyed As Yankees do not
guess by inspiration from any spirit but their own
nor by intuition, but only by calculation, we will
state how we calculate that good times will come
about


In the first place we disclam altogether the idea
that the prosperity Of this country depends chiefly
upon either protection free trade. Our chief con
fdence is in the intelligence and energy of our citi
zens and the favorable crcums tances in which Prov
idence has placed To be sure all this would be
nothing without liberty, and the more liberty We
have, the better in all matters Of trade. But even
with the tariff Of 1912, restraining and modifying
liberty, we yet the freest nation on the globe
Now we are freer still, and industry will there
fore be the better rewarded.


As TO general suspension OF specie payments,
we do not think there is any good ground TO expeer
thyt such disaster will ever occur again in this
country. The banking system is now too free-teO
much beyond any control. The banks stand more
than formerly each upon It's own basis and response
bility. General bank suspensions are the effect OF
bank regulations. II banking was len free, the
banks would no more sus pend all at once and by
concert than the merchants; and bank that did not
pay in coin would no more do business and have
credit than merchant who did not pay his notes
Until, therefore, we have another great national
regulator, land we humby trust that day will never
come,) or something else by which the banks are
brought under some great controlling central system,
we cannot have general suspension. The tendency
of public sentiment withal towards further liberty
and 80 towards greater safety.


In the next place, the establishment Of free-rade
principles in our own and other countries, will re.
move, or least modify the disorders of trade and
save merchants from those mscalculations into
which they led by high tariffs and other disturb
ing influences Not that we should expect perfect
steadiness in trade under system of entire liberty
But the more liberty, the more steadiness; and the
more protection, the more overrading and collaps.
ing, the tory of our own mercantile affairs for
the last twr yearI does abundantly prove. .


Again: H. reduction of protection will impari
steadness and permanent prosperity to our manu-
facturers, and cause them more successfully to COM
pete win foreigners all over the wOrlu. w MINK,
too that careful observation will satisfy every un-
preludced mind that, all things considered, have
better for manufacturing than any other
ton. Taking all the results Of labor into account
faithfulness, ingenuity and everything else, be-
lieve have the superiority in the great matter OF
labor much as the contrary has been asserted. The
freetrade tariff will, therefore, not destroy, but
tablish our manufactures.


We find another reason for cheerful expectation,
in the immense products Of our industry fitted for
expectation, and the great extent to which our wants
are supplied at home. IL must be in rude and
wasteful spirit truly, that Americans should desire
to consume more of foreign goods than their own
immense products will pay for. Our only appre-
hension is that shall not want foreign goods
enough to pay for what we send abroad and that
our trade, and the value Of our exports will be in
that way embarrassed. But although we do not
exactly through this matter, we shall give our
selves no uneasness about it, hoping only that free
trade will bring something practically useful
IN return for our exports than gold to be idly
locked up in bank vaults.


Especially we think the position of business af-
fairs in our country such gives the most confident
assurance of prosperity. From what quarter is
disaster to Gomez They who say it is to come from
the new policy Of the government are bound to tell
us ho,o and in this their theories entirely un-
satisfactory. There is no speculation anywhere
none Of the signs of restless fever which always
precede the lassitude of revusion Who now stands





body Everything is down to its estimated real
value, and many things below, with the exception
of protected manufactures. How, then, are they TO
faiR The heavy losses on produce which occurred
last spring, with the Oregon dispute, the Mexican
war, and the tariff discussion, brought business to
pause and spread extensive distrust The mer-
chants shortened sail, and prepared for the worst
All this came IN good time, If il must come at ALL
and although it over,hrew few excellent men, it
has very much strengthened the rest and prepared
business for new and vigorous start. Some eau
ton, Of course, will be observed in those articles
which are likely to be cheaper under the tariff;
for men will take care to have small stocks when
goods likely to fall. The losses of last spring
settled; the Oregon dispute is settled the tariff
is settled--lll, but the Mexican war; and that, if
Mexico will hold still long enough, our government
Intends shall be settled forthwith. Carefulness, and
even dstrust, still characterize business, and mod
Grafton will prevail through the fall. But such a
state of things was always followed by great conf
denoe and enlarged activity. They certainly will
be now, and it will turn out, unless the symptoms