text: What utilities should know about electric cars – Gigaom
  Ucilia Wang Jul 19, 2011 - 12:12 PM CDT
  Utilities know by now that they need to adopt steps to manage the supply and demand of electricity if electric cars eventually become popular. The trick is to figure out what types of new equipment and customer incentives will be needed, and over what time frame. That's a particularly difficult task for an industry that is conservative when it comes to investing in new technologies and is highly regulated.
  To shed some light on this problem, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) released a report on Tuesday that pinpoints the likely impact that electric vehicles will have on the electric grid and what steps utilities can take to deal with the impact. The report looks at the affect of plug-in electric cars, whether they are the all-electric variety such as the Nissan Leaf or the hybrid version like the Chevy Volt. And speaking of the Volt, GM plans to launch what it's calling the first real-world pilot of smart-grid solutions for electric vehicles this year.
  Here are some key findings from the EPRI report:
  1. How many electric vehicles will be on the roads, in what time frame? The electric car market has barely started, and key technology, including next-gen batteries, that can deliver the wide adoption of electric vehicles have yet to be developed. EPRI came up with three forecasts for the cumulative number of electric cars that will show up between 2010 and 2030. The low estimates are 3.1 million by 2020 and 15 million by 2030, based on historical sales from 2000 to 2008. The medium estimates are 5.8 million by 2020 and 35 million by 2030, based on historical sales and carmakers' announcements of new models and production volumes. The high side will be 12 million by 2020 and over 65 million by 2030. And, yes, that's a large range for an estimate.
  2. Electric vehicles' share of the car market. The low estimates put electric cars at 1 percent of the total cars driven in the U.S. by 2010 and 4 percent by 2030. The medium estimates peg the market penetration at 1.9 percent in 2020 and 9.4 percent in 2030. In the most optimistic scenario, electric cars will make up 3.9 percent in 2020 and roughly 17.7 percent in 2030.
  3. How cheap is the fuel for electric cars? Electric cars can be fueled up at one-third or a quarter of the cost of a gasoline car, given the current pricing of both fuel types. Utilities are worried that because electricity is cheaper to start with, drivers might juice up their cars even in peak hours, when electric rates are high (but not as high as comparable gasoline costs). But providing and educating drivers about the low rates they could get in off-peak hours will help to minimize the need to increase electricity supply during peak hours and alleviate any stress to the grid.
  6. Potential rate plans. To entice consumers to charge late at night, utilities could try several offers that are similar to cell phone plans. They can charge a fixed rate for an "anytime plan," a discount rate between certain hours overnight or a flat monthly fee for charging overnight. The last option could provide consumers with the most savings.
  Photo courtesy of Einstraus via Flickr
  2 Responses to "What utilities should know about electric cars"
  damir perge | founder | entrepreneurdex July 20, 2011
  Excellent data here. Great reference for anyone in this sector.
  There is no doubt that electric cars are the future in one form or fashion. The battery problem has to improve drastically. Whoever cracks the code on making a better battery will be the next Google of the energy industry. Hey, maybe Google is working on it.
  What is troubling is that the current national electric grid needs major upgrading to become digital. Based on my studies yours ago, it will tale $100 billion dollars to get this done. U.S. should be pushing hard on this but they are not as of a few years ago. I have not kept up with it so I could be wrong now.
  The most troubling aspect of the electric car is the simple fact that more than 45% of the electricity generated by utilities in U.S. is based on coal. Utility industry needs major renovation. Coal is not going away so electric cars are not as green as people might think.
  Joe Reed July 19, 2011
  Given the Obama EPA's behavior: revoking valid coal mining permits and creating vast and draconian "carbon emission" regulations that will be next-to-impossible to meet, the other challenge will be dealing with rolling blackouts and brownouts.