text: Latest5/29/17, 11:01 AM CESTAmber Rudd to Angela Merkel: We'll still be friends after BrexitBY Peter BaughBritain wants to have 'deep and special partnership' with EU.5/29/17, 9:14 AM CESTAlmost half of French want deep labor market reform: pollBY Harry CooperMacron made labor reform a cornerstone of his election campaign. 5/29/17, 8:33 AM CESTTrans-Atlantic Security: Four Imperatives for NATOBY Chris Lombardi, vice president, Raytheon European Business DevelopmentIn seeking the U.S. Senate's ratification of the North Atlantic Treaty in 1949, President Harry S. Truman said, "Events in this century have taught us that we …5/29/17, 8:06 AM CESTMI5 to investigate Manchester intelligence failureBY Harry CooperInquiries will probe why MI5 failed to identify Salman Abedi as a threat.5/29/17, 6:31 AM CESTTrump's obsession over Russia probe deepensBY Matthew Nussbaum, Josh Dawsey and Eliana JohnsonBut the president's senior aides say he has yet to decide on a strategy for confronting the crises.5/29/17, 4:21 AM CESTBattle of the British nationalismsBY David TorranceIn UK politics today, class has been displaced by appeals to Scottish or British patriotism.5/29/17, 4:15 AM CESTHow Leo Varadkar imagines Ireland (and vice versa)BY Ken MurrayLeo Varadkar would be the youngest Irish leader since independence from the British.5/29/17, 4:10 AM CESTEuropean Parliament's 'cocktail' club causes a stirBY Maïa de La BaumeThe planned €1.9-million 'House of Citizens' will host meetings and events for small groups.5/28/17, 11:31 PM CESTWhat Angela Merkel meant at the Munich beer hallBY Matthew KarnitschnigSpoiler alert: The German chancellor didn't just throw in the towel on the alliance with America.5/28/17, 6:07 PM CESTTrump, Republicans push back on Kushner reportsBY Austin WrightThe president tweeted a response as Republicans went on Sunday morning shows to downplay the issue.5/28/17, 5:22 PM CESTEU's Tusk remains hopeful of relations with TrumpBY Kait BolongaroEU Council president strikes upbeat note on 'the other Donald.'5/28/17, 4:56 PM CESTAngela Merkel: Europe must take 'our fate' into own handsBY Giulia ParaviciniAlluding to difficulties with Donald Trump and Brexit, German leader says EU can't 'completely depend on others.'5/28/17, 2:58 PM CESTWhat Orwell saw — and what he missed — about today's worldBY Thomas E. RicksHe got it right about big government. But he didn't see Silicon Valley coming.5/28/17, 2:56 PM CESTRussia scandal ices government lawyer hiringBY Josh GersteinTrump has top DOJ positions as well as U.S. attorney posts and judicial vacancies to fill, but as scandals spread the candidate pool has shrunk.5/28/17, 2:45 PM CESTMueller's appointment complicates Congress' Russia investigationsBY Austin WrightLawmakers are eager to set up 'deconfliction' agreements with the new special counsel, but they have yet to meet with Mueller.5/28/17, 11:30 AM CESTMacron says long Trump handshake 'not innocent'BY Kait BolongaroHolding onto U.S. president's hand showed he won't make even small concessions, French leader explains.5/28/17, 8:45 AM CESTRussia scandal casts uncertainty over Kushner's roleBY Annie Karni and Josh DawseyTrump's son-in-law, who's long been above White House infighting, now has to defend his position in the West Wing.5/28/17, 7:11 AM CESTKushner's alleged Russia backchannel attempt would be serious break from protocolBY Matthew Nussbaum, Bryan Bender and Eliana JohnsonFormer national security officials say such communications are common for presidents, but highly suspect for transition teams.5/28/17, 6:29 AM CESTTrump's foreign trip: 5 takeawaysBY Tara PalmeriThe US president managed to get what he wanted overseas, but returns home to a deepening scandal.5/27/17, 6:48 PM CESTWorried by Trump, G7 sees a bright side: he showed upBY David M. HerszenhornThe US president didn't sign up to the Paris accords but fellow leaders feel it could all have been much worse.5/27/17, 4:31 PM CESTMcMaster 'not concerned' following Kushner reportsBY Tara Palmeri 5/27/17, 2:05 PM CESTUK lowers terror threat level to severeBY Giulia ParaviciniPrime Minister Theresa May says decision follows 'significant amount' of police activity.5/27/17, 1:09 PM CESTTrump aides facing perilous stage of Russia probeBY Darren SamuelsohnInvestigators are ramping up requests for documents, and any failure to preserve records exposes Trump aides to criminal charges down the line.5/27/17, 12:12 PM CESTWhy G7+2? It's all about the EUBY David M. HerszenhornAt the Sicily summit, Tusk and Juncker try to represent the little guys and fly the flag for multilateralism.5/27/17, 9:51 AM CESTTeam May returns to playbook with attack on Jeremy CorbynBY Tom McTague, Charlie Cooper and Annabelle DicksonThe polls have narrowed dramatically since Theresa May's disastrous manifesto launch.5/27/17, 6:15 AM CESTWorld's cartoonists on this week's eventsBY Ivo OliveiraDrawing the top stories around the globe.5/27/17, 6:13 AM CESTPOLITICO Brussels Playbook Plus, presented by Ibec, Irish business: Mansplaining summit — The three Macronistas — Heaven is … MolenbeekBY Ryan Heath, Harry Cooper and Quentin Ariès 5/27/17, 5:33 AM CESTCarter adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski dies at 89BY Cristiano LimaPolish-born strategist guided US president through Iran crisis and pushed hard line against Soviets. 5/27/17, 5:28 AM CESTLawyer: Kushner 'has no recollection' of reported undisclosed Russian contactsBY Cristiano LimaMedia reports allege president's son-in-law sought to establish secret line of communications with Russia. 5/26/17, 11:10 PM CESTTrump brings his solo act to EuropeBY Tara Palmeri and David M. HerszenhornThe president has seemed less at ease among his fellow world leaders in group settings than he is in one-on-one encounters.5/26/17, 10:33 PM CEST3 takeaways from Jeremy Corbyn's TV grillingBY Charlie CooperThe Labour leader faced questions on terrorism, nuclear weapons and leadership.5/26/17, 8:53 PM CESTTrump's right about GermanyBY Danny VinikHis diagnosis is imprecise but Merkel's economic policies really are hurting the U.S.5/26/17, 8:36 PM CESTCohn: White House won't roll back Russia sanctionsBY Matthew Nussbaum and Tara Palmeri'We're not lowering our sanctions on Russia,' says Trump's chief economic adviser.5/26/17, 8:28 PM CESTTrump confirms Europe's worst fearsBY Matthew KarnitschnigWorried continental leaders discover that the U.S. president's brash and unpredictable persona is not an act.5/26/17, 8:11 PM CESTEdgy Eastern Europe seeks reassurance in Trump's NATO talkBY David SternThe U.S. President's omission of an explicit commitment to common defense has Russia's neighbors worried.5/26/17, 6:18 PM CESTManchester police got 'hold of large part of attacker's network'BY Cynthia KroetPolice 'focusing on understanding attacker Salman Abedi's life,' investigators said.5/26/17, 4:43 PM CESTTheresa May aims to recover momentum as poll lead slipsBY Tom McTagueThe prime minister returns from the G7 to a changed political landscape.5/26/17, 4:42 PM CESTCyprus reunification at an impasse as UN fails to find compromiseBY Sara StefaniniOnus now firmly back on Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders.5/26/17, 3:52 PM CESTSecurity policy expert slams Jeremy Corbyn's terror speechBY Annabelle DicksonRohullah Yakobi, who fled the Taliban aged 12, said Corbyn 'ignores the role of Islamic extremism and its world view.'5/26/17, 3:44 PM CESTRex Tillerson: US takes 'full responsibility' for Manchester leaksBY Cynthia Kroet'We obviously regret that that happened,' the US Secretary of State said while visiting London.5/26/17, 3:34 PM CESTG7 must face down Russia or suffer disasterBY Petro PoroshenkoHistory teaches us that appeasement doesn't work, writes President Petro Poroshenko.5/26/17, 1:17 PM CESTFrance cheers Macron going mano a mano with TrumpBY Saim SaeedFrench president takes firm grip on relations with US counterpart.5/26/17, 12:53 PM CESTJeremy Corbyn links UK terror threat to foreign policyBY Saim SaeedLabour leader promised to reverse cuts to police and emergency services.5/26/17, 8:57 AM CESTSalman Abedi may have built other explosives: reportBY Saim SaeedPolice found a 'working bomb factory' in attacker's home.5/26/17, 8:22 AM CESTUK Conservatives' lead drops to 5 points: pollBY Saim SaeedIf trend continues, Tories may lose seats in June 8 election.5/26/17, 8:15 AM CESTVisas to Muslim-majority countries down 20 percentBY Nahal Toosi and Ted HessonA POLITICO review of new data indicates the U.S. is granting fewer non-immigrant visas, with Arab states especially hard hit.5/26/17, 7:33 AM CESTMeet the real Jared KushnerBY David FreedlanderHe's a lot tougher than he looks.5/26/17, 4:02 AM CESTGermany's liberal comeback: a safe protest voteBY Konstantin RichterThe Free Democrats are riding on the failings of establishment parties to return as political outsiders. 5/26/17, 4:00 AM CESTUK election campaign restarts in shadow of attacksBY Annabelle Dickson and Charlie CooperThe attack in Manchester that killed 22 people has changed the themes of the election campaign.5/26/17, 3:43 AM CESTLawyer: Jared Kushner willing to answer questions on Russian meetingsBY Josh Gerstein and Cristiano LimaPresident's senior advisor and son-in-law met with Russian ambassador and Russian banker last year.SearchSearch TermSearchMy AccountLoginRegister Europe EditionU.S. EditionPOLITICO FloridaPOLITICO New JerseyPOLITICO New YorkPOLITICO Media	Full MenuBrusselsCommissionParliamentCouncilThe ContinentBrexitForeign AffairsHome AffairsPoliticsPolicyAgriculture & FoodEconomicsEnergy & EnvironmentFinancial ServicesHealth CareTechnologyTradeTransportForumOpinionFeaturesLetters to the EditorBlogsPlaybook PlusOn MediaMultimediaVideoPodcastsNewslettersBrussels PlaybookMorgen EuropaBrexit FilesBrussels InfluenceSunday CrunchSpecial ReportsEventsFuture EventsPrevious EventsEU Studies FairSeriesEnergy Visions	LATEST: Amber Rudd to Angela Merkel: We'll still be friends after Brexit	Share on Twitter
  POLITICO Morning Exchange: Churchill and Lowe — Hitler's shadow — Africa and Brexit
  By	Francesco Guerrera	5/17/16, 9:40 AM CET
  **The following newsletter is an abridged version of Pro Morning Exchange. For an earlier morning read and additional content throughout the day on an evolving and complex financial services legislation — such as CMU, MiFID II rules, Financial Transaction Tax, Basel III transposition, CRD V — request a trial to Pro Financial Services following this link http://politi.co/1TFH1DE or send us an email at pro@politico.eu**
  PHILIP LOWE, WINSTON CHURCHILL, AND BREXIT: I know, you don't see those names linked very often but bear with me. First up is Lowe, eminent former Brussels bureaucrat and prominent Brit in Europe. He told my colleague Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli late last week that he was mystified by why Britain would want to leave the EU.
  "In 1975 when the U.K. voted to join the EU, we were the sick man of Europe, while today we are Europe's strong man and we want to leave," the former director general for both competition and energy said. "This is the conundrum of this referendum." Lowe also pushed back on the idea of the Commission as an all-powerful and constantly meddling bureaucracy. "The truth is that the Commission is influenced by national governments and many other international players, like the G20, the OECD, and the Financial Stability Board."
  Churchill, the anti-Brexiter? A pro-EU reader drew our attention to Churchill's speech in 1946 in Zurich, in which he said: "We must build a kind of United States of Europe. In this way only will hundreds of millions of toilers be able to regain the simple joys and hopes which make life worth living."
  How come Boris Johnson, the leader of the Out camp who wrote a biography of the great man a few years back, doesn't remember that? Or does he prefer to emphasize another, earlier, quote by Churchill?: "We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked, but not comprised. We are interested and associated, but not absorbed."
  M.E. takeaway: Between Lowe and Churchill, the latter is the one that better represents Britain's current attitude to the EU. The ambiguity exemplified by the former prime minister's quotes is what is splitting the country down the middle and makes the June 23 referendum so difficult to call. Lowe's view is legitimate, of course, but it's more typical of Brussels' perspective — puzzled as to why the Brits are blind to the joys of the EU.
  More Brexit coverage below.
  HEDGE FUNDS ARE BUYING A LOT OF LONG-TERM EUROPEAN DEBT: Surprising discovery by Ralf Preusser, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In April, there was a spike in issuance of very long government debt, more than 15 years in maturity. This is weird because these bonds are more expensive for national treasuries, since long-term interest rates are higher than short-term ones. Preusser believes that hedge funds, rather than pension funds and other "traditional" investors, have scooped up much of the new issuance.
  What does that mean? Preusser doesn't say, but it looks like hedge funds hunting for higher returns in an era of super-low interest rates have alighted on these super-long government bonds. The risks are obvious: The "hedgies" are unlikely to keep hold of this stuff for the 15 to 50 years required, so any movement by them to sell the bonds could cause volatility in the market.
  DRIVING THE DAY: I hope everybody had a good long weekend, except us hard-working London dwellers, that is … Not an awful lot on the calendar for Tuesday. U.K. inflation numbers are in the spotlight. April's year-on-year rise is expected at 0.5 percent, well below the 2 percent target of the Bank of England.
  Other than that, we should get eurozone trade in goods for March, plus the report on competition in the U.K. retail banking market.
  THANKS FOR ALL THE QUESTIONS FOR VP DOMBROVSKIS: Ahead of our interview in Brussels on Wednesday, to which you are all invited (just sign up here). On a different subject, sorry to disappoint those who wanted me to reveal which bank had the "calls not recorded" taped over their squawk-box … But I'm here for everything else: fguerrera@politico.eu and morningexchange@politico.eu. And if you like tweeting: @guerreraf72.
  GREECE — IS THE IMF PREPARING TO WALK AWAY? That's what Eurasia thinks. The geopolitical consultancy believes there's a good chance the International Monetary Fund won't take part in the latest bailout, given the sharp disagreements with the other parties on the thorny issue of debt relief.
  "The 24 May Eurogroup will conclude Greece's first review and disburse funds; it's becoming more likely this will happen without the IMF, delaying if not killing debt relief for Greece," Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia's head of Europe writes in a note to clients. "A disbursement without the IMF will carry profound implications for the IMF, as well as for Greece. If this precedent is set, it will make it much harder for the IMF to join Greece's bailout, or indeed, any eurozone bailout, in the future."
  MORE TROUBLE FOR THE ECB IN GERMANY: After a bunch of academics and business people filed a complaint in Germany's highest court over the ECB's bond-buying program. The challenge is unlikely to succeed but adds to the political woes facing Mario Draghi in the country that hosts the ECB. The Financial Times' Claire Jones has more: http://on.ft.com/1Ti3KJG
  GOLDMAN SOUNDS (KIND OF) BULLISH ON OIL, PRICES RISE: The investment bank has been fairly negative on the price of crude but in a note to clients, Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie say the glut in oil has come to a sudden stop and the market is now in deficit — a good thing for prices. As a result, the duo now expect U.S.-traded oil to reach $50 (€44) a barrel by the end of the year, above the $45 they forecast in March. WTI prices rose more than 3 percent to above $47.
  But, and it is an important "but," the party won't last, and the market is expected to tip back into oversupply in the first quarter of 2017, with prices dropping back to $45 a barrel.
  HITLER, THE 'SHADOWY COMMON DENOMINATOR' HANGING OVER EUROPE'S POLITICS: The scary image is by David Marsh, managing director of the think-tank Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. In an article for OMFIF, Marsh notes that "the spectre of Adolf Hitler is playing a role in helping shape events" in London — where Johnson just compared the EU to the Nazis — Vienna, where the rise of the far-right has cost the prime minister his job — and Athens — where anti-Germany antipathy is fueled by memories of the country's wartime occupation by Hitler's forces.
  HSBC TO MOVE MORE THAN 800 JOBS AWAY FROM THE UK: To China, India and Poland, to be precise. This is part of planned cost-cutting that could affect thousands of positions. The jobs affected are mainly IT and will move from Sheffield, Tankersley in South Yorkshire and London. Nick Clegg, the former deputy prime minister who is MP for Sheffield, told Sky News the cuts were a "devastating blow" for Sheffield. http://bit.ly/1TSCiOB H/T Kate Day.
  TECHNOPHOBE WARREN BUFFETT BUYS $1 BILLION STAKE IN APPLE: Thus making every click-hungry financial publications' day (Apple stories and Buffett stories are the Kardashian stories of financial journalism).
  The Wall Street Journal's Lauren Pollock and Anupreeta Das: "Mr. Buffett, who for years avoided technology stocks, previously professed to not understand the sector and had argued that it is difficult to defend its competitive advantages. Mr. Buffett's record has been built on investments in insurers, financial companies and industrial businesses, including household names like Coca-Cola Co. and American Express Co."
  "Mr. Buffett said in an email that the Apple investment was made by one of Berkshire's two investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler." http://on.wsj.com/1TSEKVm
  MORNING EXCHANGE READERSHIP SURVEY: With more than 70 Morning Exchange issues since launch, we want to hear from you! Take this 2-minute survey, and let us know your feedback: http://svy.mk/1Ol57He
  BARCLAYS SELLS BOND-LIKE GOLD VAULT TO CHINESE BANK: The Guardian's Simon Goodley: "A secret London vault, which can store more than $80 billion in gold bullion, is being sold by Barclays to China's ICBC Standard bank for an undisclosed sum."
  "The facility … has the capacity to store 2,000 tonnes of gold. And while further details about the vault are scarce, it is said to be one of the largest in Europe and is presently used to store bars of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Its security precautions reportedly include: a front door that can withstand 'a direct hit from a rocket-propelled grenade'; an electrified roof; and plinths that have been sunk to keep out anyone ambitious enough to try to tunnel in."
  LADBROKE'S CEO WILL ROOT AGAINST ENGLAND AT EURO FOOTBALL TOURNAMENT: And not just because he is Scottish. Jim Mullen told Bloomberg the bookmaker could lose £1 million (€1.3 billion) for every game England wins in the opening half of the tournament, which starts June 10 in France. Bloomberg's Paul Jarvis: http://bloom.bg/1TSCZrb
  Incidentally, Ladbroke has France as odds-on favorite to win, followed by Germany, Spain and Belgium. Since you ask, Italy is joint fifth favorite with Portugal …
  THE FINAL DAYS OF LENDING CLUB CEO RENAUD LAPLANCHE: The WSJ's Peter Rudegeair and Annamaria Andriotis on the spectacular downfall on one of fintech's brightest stars:
  "Mr. Laplanche's ouster wasn't due to a single event but rather a series of moves he made in recent months as the San Francisco firm for the first time pursued deals with Wall Street banks to fund LendingClub's loans, according to people familiar with the matter. The company is expected to release further details about the circumstances of his departure later on Monday as part of a securities filing."
  "The allegations that led to Mr. Laplanche being pushed out — that he wasn't forthcoming about his own investments or the company's sales practices — also raise tough new questions for the fast-growing business of putting borrowers and lenders together through technology." http://on.wsj.com/1TkmEys
  MORE ON BREXIT, AS PROMISED:
  Africa won't benefit from Brexit: The blog "What's in it for Africa?" which looks at EU news from an African perspective, studied the issue and came to this conclusion in a post and video. Among the negative repercussions: the absence of the U.K.'s critical voice against the Common Agricultural Policy, which puts African farmers at a disadvantage, and other trade issues. The video is here: http://bit.ly/27rPSTg
  BoE — London won't benefit from Brexit: The Bank of England waded even deeper into the referendum controversy. Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey told Reuters that the British capital "has no 'God given' right to remain a global banking center if Britain were to leave the EU." Reuters' Huw Jones and Andrew Macaskill have more: http://reut.rs/27rQsAu
  More than 300 business leaders disagree with that: In a letter to The Telegraph, the business figures, including Goldman Sachs' senior banker David Sismey, say "red tape stifles every one of Britain's 5.4 million businesses" and claim that a Brexit would allow them to "create more jobs." http://bit.ly/27rR0Gx
  George Osborne, Vince Cable and Ed Ball say the economic case against Brexit is not 'a conspiracy:' The three economics-focused politicians from the three main parties met in Stansted airport for a pro-EU rally. Unfortunately, they felt the need to use a travel pun, saying that leaving the EU would be a "one-way ticket to a poorer Britain." Stick to the stats, gents. POLITICO's Arnau Busquets Guàrdia: http://politi.co/27rSJM2
  Fitch says Brexit would redraw Europe's political map: The Guardian's Katie Allen:
  "A vote for Brexit in next month's referendum could lead to disharmony across the rest of the 28-member bloc, strengthen anti-EU groups and dent other European economies, a leading credit ratings agency has warned."
  "Fitch, which previously warned that Brexit could hurt the U.K.'s strong credit score, reiterated the risk in an update to investors on Monday. It also warned that a vote to leave the EU on 23 June could hurt British airlines and trigger further failures in the retail sector, but that a weaker pound would bolster exporters' competitiveness." http://bit.ly/1TSGDBl