text: ChrisWeigant.com » Predicting Tuesday's Primaries
  38 Comments on "Predicting Tuesday's Primaries"
  Ohio allows a voter to cast a ballot in either the Republican or Democratic primary (but not both) without any preregistration.
  I suspect a lot of Democrats will choose to vote tactically and cast their ballot for Kasich, in hopes of denying Ohio's all or nothing delegates to Trump. Trump has a lot of supporters in Ohio, but there are also a lot of voters who want to keep Mooso-leany as far away from the Oval Office (or a balcony) as possible. This could be a tough tactical decision for both Bernicrats and Hillarycrats.
  [ Permalink ] [ Monday, March 14th, 2016 at 17:41 ]
  This defeat will utterly crush Rubio's presidential dream, and he will likely withdraw from the race either Tuesday night or very early Wednesday morning.
  Doesn't that depend on the convention rules, assuming Cruz and Kasich do well enough to look as though they have a shot at denying Trump a majority of delegates?
  [ Permalink ] [ Monday, March 14th, 2016 at 17:48 ]
  I think Kasich's adopting the Hillary Clinton stance on illegal immigrants will lose Ohio for him..
  Kasich has become more Democrat than Democrats on the issue of illegal immigrant criminals.. (I know, I know.. That's redundant...)
  Trump will take Ohio from Kasich and will take Florida from Rubio..
  That will be all she wrote.. The fat lady will have sung...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 02:14 ]
  Is Ohio an Open Primary state??
  That surely would explain Kasich adopting the Democrat stance on illegal immigrants and global warming...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 02:23 ]
  It would not surprise me if Rubio remained in the race after losing Florida. Not sure about Kasich though... maybe he'll drop out when he loses Ohio... or was he the one who said he was staying in for the duration?
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 06:14 ]
  ... maybe he'll drop out when he loses Ohio...
  When? Not, if?
  What makes you so sure that Kasich is going to lose Ohio?
  Some polling has been very bad and all the polls during this election cycle are less than reliable. Which means we can be sure of very little.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 07:07 ]
  Something has been stuck in my craw about Hillary's attack on Sanders for not voting for the "auto bailout" ...
  As I understand it, the attack is very misleading since he voted for the stand-alone auto bailout legislation but not for bill that included money for auto bailout because it was part of the "Wall Street bailout" package and Bernie couldn't vote for a bill with THAT in it!
  Hillary should have left the auto bailout alone and taken the courageous and correct route by going after Bernie for not supporting the Wall Street bailout, in my not so humble opinion. That attack could have been far more deleterious to Sanders's campaign IF she handled it adeptly. Granted, that is a very big 'if'.
  She could start by asking voters one simple question ... what would have happened to Main Street without the Wall Street bailout?
  Actually, I wish someone would ask Senator Sanders that question! Now, that would start a very, very interesting discussion and the voters, I suspect, would learn a great deal about the two Democratic presidential contenders ...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 07:26 ]
  Actually, Senator Sanders's stance on both the auto bailout AND the wall street bailout leave much to be desired ... for anyone who understands how the 2008 financial crisis would have impacted Main Street and average Americans everywhere if either of the bailouts failed to materialize.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 07:37 ]
  I understand why Secretary Clinton may choose not to go down that route but, if handled right and communicated well, I think she could blow Sanders out of the water with it, so to speak ...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 07:38 ]
  Hillary Clinton... Bought and paid for by big money interests..
  Donald Trump.... Bought and paid for by the voters of America...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 09:44 ]
  Trump has pissed off all the money men. This should work out well for him.
  http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/12/wall-streets-wise-men-and-women-rap-trump.html
  They even prefer Bernie - are you parsing this folks, Bernie!, Mr. Anti-Wall-Street - to Trump.
  Trump better have more liquid wealth than everybody thinks he has. Wall Street are going to make him pay top dollar to borrow against his assets.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 10:56 ]
  Republican-on-Republican Violence (not the Trump physical type, the political type):
  Latest National Review on Trump Supporters:
  "They are losers, druggies, layabouts, and so on. The solution [...] is to move out of their pathetic dying towns. ("The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets." Etc.)"
  The Father-Führer (March 28, 2016 issue) by Kevin Williamson
  Williamson equates Trump supports to 'losers' and their communities 'deserve to die'.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 11:06 ]
  Comment trapped in nanny net. See this link:
  Williamson calls Trump supports 'losers' and calls for the death of their communities in the National Review.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 11:08 ]
  Be sure to invite all who civilly and coherently disagree with you to CW.com to continue the discussion!
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 11:20 ]
  I have.. :D I even told a few who think Hillary is home free as far as the FBI goes to come over and participate in our bet. :D
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 11:33 ]
  That will make even MORE Democrats want vote for Trump!! :D
  If Wall Street is against Trump then Democrats are FOR Trump!! :D
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 11:34 ]
  For all the old Brits out there (with link to original for the confused or the nostalgic)
  DONALD TRUMPTON (by Brian Bilston)
  https://youtu.be/s6YE4PCRNwc
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 11:44 ]
  Excellent! Chris is going to be very busy ...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 11:52 ]
  I hope so.... I would hate to think that me sticking my head in the mouth of the jackal was for naught... :D
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 12:58 ]
  You missed the bit about Citizens United where the money is anonymous.
  The irony is delicious. The Republicans thought Citizens United was going to help their candidate.
  Trump will get no money from Wall Street, but a bunch of evidence that he is an insider, and at the same time Hillary will get to trash Wall St with a nod and a wink, take the money, and nobody is going to be any the wiser.
  Trump will get no money from Wall Street,
  Trump doesn't NEED any money from Wall Street..
  That's the beauty of the Trump phenomenon..
  I have heard a rumor that, once Trump sews up the GOP nomination, he will do fundraisers and allow the GOP Establishment to give him money...
  But it will be on Trump's terms...
  The guy's a genius!!!! :D
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 13:18 ]
  and at the same time Hillary will get to trash Wall St with a nod and a wink, take the money, and nobody is going to be any the wiser.
  So what you are saying is you are perfectly OK with such a two-faced lying candidate for POTUS??
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 14:10 ]
  "PolitiFact has been documenting Trump's statements on our Truth-O-Meter, where we've rated 76 percent of them Mostly False, False or Pants on Fire, out of 77 statements checked. No other politician has as many statements rated so far down on the dial."
  You do know what politicians are, right. You want a naive clown who doesn't know what he is doing and is also a worse pathological liar than the rest of them ... oops, I guess you do ;)
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 14:53 ]
  I don't buy the "Mexicans will pay for the wall" ,"Tariffs of 45% on the Chinese", or "I'll take their money but on my terms" nonsense, and neither does Trump himself (it is a negotiation stance, he claims).
  Where is the money going to come from:
  a/ Wall St - no, they hate him
  b/ Koch Bros - no, they hate him
  c/ Sheldon Adelson - probably, but AIPAC is having a fit over Trump, and Sheldon only put in $93M in 2012, including funding a lot of down ticket races and other issue PACs
  d/ The others - maybe 50%-60% of the other regulars will stump up for anybody-but-Hillary
  Donald is going to have to spend $0.8B to 1.2B of his own money to be a nationwide contender - that's quite a lot for a >50% chance the money is going down the drain anyway. (His real net worth is about $4B, and most of that is illiquid.)
  The money boys are not stupid, they know they will get a better ROI from a reliably venal Congress than from an unstable self-centered populist who is likely to create pandemonium in international currency markets and the World's bourses.
  One last thought. Say The Donald does put in $1B of his own money. He is a pathological liar, and revels in being greedy and looking out for himself (ask a lot of his business partners who he screwed over using the bankruptcy laws). You think he is going to care about the little guy? Is anybody that naive? He will want his money back with a big profit - it's all about the deal with Donald.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 15:28 ]
  Looks like Trump is cleaning up in Florida! 46%!
  California has at last shaken off its mantle as the crazy state. Carl Hiaasen was putting a good spin on, it seems.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 16:43 ]
  And Politifact rates Hillary as 72% true...
  Politifact is a Left Wingery "fact" checker...
  California has at last shaken off its mantle as the crazy state.
  Dining on sour grapes again?? :D
  Get used to saying PRESIDENT TRUMP...
  Trump is going to take Ohio too.... :D
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 16:47 ]
  Hey, there's a new article up. Let's do the live thread for tonight's results over there...
  http://www.chrisweigant.com/2016/03/15/a-wonky-diversion/
  I'll answer the comments above in a bit, I promise...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 17:04 ]
  Really? then why does it also rate Jeb Bush 70% true? How left-wingery is he? Facts aren't lefty or righty, they're just facts, and there's no evidence whatsoever for politifact being anything other than what they claim to be.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 17:26 ]
  btw, i've updated my politifact spreadsheet to reflect more recent statements:
  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_vcPB-Y1L7zAaueI84ypoKL7nygAeO4po9y13d1aEWE/edit#gid=0
  the super tuesday candidates rank-ordered by percent of statements half-true or better:
  Clinton: 72%
  Sanders: 69%
  Kasich: 68%
  But then again.. I could be wrong about that.. :D
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 19:30 ]
  Really? then why does it also rate Jeb Bush 70% true? How left-wingery is he?
  Apparently, pretty much.. :D
  Facts aren't lefty or righty, they're just facts, and there's no evidence whatsoever for politifact being anything other than what they claim to be.
  But rating a person's facts is Righty and Lefty...
  How else do you explain Hillary having a 72% TRUE rating thru the site, yet over 70% of Americans use the word LIAR to describe Hillary??
  Either the site is wrong or over 70% of Americans are...
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 19:42 ]
  30+ years of Republican mud slinging.
  Can you imagine Trump's reputation if he was a full on target for 30+ years of targeted negative media?
  Look at the negative reputation Trump has achieved in 9 months and he's been given a pass by opponents who cherished his voters.
  This is going to be the most negative election ever, and Trump is going to get spanked when the kid gloves come off.
  [ Permalink ] [ Tuesday, March 15th, 2016 at 21:17 ]
  That Hillary is a congenital liar..
  "We can't discount the possibility just because we don't happen to like it.."
  [ Permalink ] [ Wednesday, March 16th, 2016 at 00:22 ]
  You have to ask yourself one question, Neil...
  Why would there be so much negative media attention from the tried and true LEFT WING media??
  Maybe, JUST maybe, it's because what's being reported is factually accurate...
  [ Permalink ] [ Wednesday, March 16th, 2016 at 00:23 ]
  Regardless of whether it's all because of the "vast right wing conspiracy" (Obama's FBI???) or whether Hillary actually IS a congenital liar..
  The fact is, over 70% of Americans SAY she is a congenital liar...
  The WHY is irrelevant..
  The last time Hillary went negative on Trump, she AND Bill had their asses handed to them all chewed and bloodied...
  In a race to the bottom, who do you think is going to win?? Trump has nothing to lose and everything to gain..
  "Never underestimate a man who has nothing to lose"
  [ Permalink ] [ Wednesday, March 16th, 2016 at 02:04 ]
  And, since then, there has been NOTHING about "sexist Trump" coming out of the Hillary Clinton camp...
  Trump knows how to handle a bully...
  Slap them down good and hard and they run away like the cowards they are...
  [ Permalink ] [ Wednesday, March 16th, 2016 at 03:01 ]
  not if they're rated objectively, which based on the overall distribution of candidates and their ratings, appears to be the case.
  as to why many people (self included, sad to say) thought hillary is dishonest when the facts say otherwise? the ad populum argument you're making is a logical fallacy, and in this case the majority appear to be wrong. I'm sure lefties would say the same if they heard that jeb bush was rated at 70%, a half-point higher than bernie sanders.
  or, here's an alternate hypothesis: one doesn't have to lie to be dishonest, if one chooses to share certain truths while neglecting to discuss others. either way, based on some fairly extensive reading, politifact seems to be on-target with their ratings.