text: Today marks 17 years since 9/11 and nearly the same since America’s war in Afghanistan started. Launched on Oct. 7, 2001, the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan quickly overthrew the Taliban regime after their leader, Mullah Omar, refused to hand over Osama bin Laden. While America’s strategic objective in Afghanistan has often been unclear, the Taliban’s refusal to give up al-Qaeda — and by extension the fear that an Afghanistan dominated by the Taliban would remain a safe haven for international terrorists — has been one of the primary motives for the “forever war.”
  The alliance between al-Qaeda and the Taliban has endured for over 20 years. Between a crushing military campaign by the world’s foremost military alliance and the realpolitik considerations that seemingly should have led the Taliban to break ties long ago, the fact that they haven’t is remarkable. As in other alliances, the two groups remain engaged in cooperation with mutual expectations about consultation and cooperation in the future.
  An alliance does not mean that partners have merged, operate in lockstep, or even always adhere to one another’s input. In this case, they certainly have not, do not, and they sometimes ignore one another’s counsel. Allies can have areas of major divergence. And the Taliban and al-Qaeda certainly do. Since the inception of their relationship, the two groups have differed on their strategic objectives, priorities, and tactics. The Taliban continues to be staunchly focused on Afghanistan and has never embraced al-Qaeda’s global jihadist ambitions. For its part, al-Qaeda has consistently pursued its agenda with a disregard for how doing so has affected the Taliban.
  Their relationship has evolved over time. Though Bin Laden had pledged bayat to Mullah Omar, al-Qaeda was “an organization supporting a state” during the 1990s. Now the Taliban does not rely on al-Qaeda nor does it need al-Qaeda’s support for its insurgency. Al-Qaeda gains more from the relationship, not least of all a role in the insurgency in Afghanistan and an alternative to the Islamic State that it can promote to discredit its former ally. Al-Qaeda also gets the prospect of a future safe haven should the Taliban return to power, though the Taliban’s willingness to provide such sanctuary is uncertain. The alliance has proven resilient and thus poses a hurdle to efforts to find a negotiated settlement to end the war.
  The Taliban has incurred tremendous costs for its alliance with al-Qaeda over more than two decades. The relationship contributed to the Taliban’s international isolation while it was in power, including a rupture with Saudi Arabia, one of only three states to recognize the Taliban government. Al-Qaeda’s presence was a source of internal strife within the Taliban, with some urging Mullah Omar to oust the group. Some in the Taliban were particularly frustrated by Bin Laden’s declarations of war and al-Qaeda’s acts of terrorism against the United States in the years prior to 2001. But Washington’s responses actually increased the Taliban’s support for al-Qaeda. Of course, most notably, Mullah Omar’s refusal to hand over Bin Laden after 9/11 led to the United States’ invasion and the downfall of the Taliban regime.
  Though al-Qaeda was the cause of the U.S. invasion, it has steadfastly supported the Taliban’s insurgency. The Taliban has benefited from al-Qaeda’s expertise since the onset of the conflict, as it did against the Northern Alliance during the 1990s. Al-Qaeda helped train local Taliban commanders to fabricate improvised explosives beginning in the early days of the insurgency. The terrorist group’s personnel also offer other specialized and technological skills, leading one leading scholar on Afghanistan to refer to al-Qaeda operators as “subcontractors” for the Taliban. Al-Qaeda has assisted the Taliban with special operations and terrorist attacks, offering experienced supplemental manpower. The jihadist group rarely conducts or claims attacks in Afghanistan independently; instead it contributes to attacks by the Taliban and its partner then decides how to claim responsibility.
  But, by al-Qaeda’s own admission, “the Taliban almost does not need us.” The Taliban’s greatest strength is its ability to capitalize on widespread local grievances and the Afghan government’s lack of legitimacy. It has ample Afghan personnel, and it controls or contests at least 44 percent of Afghanistan’s districts. Even those estimates vastly understate the Taliban’s influence.
  In addition, at times, especially during the 1990s, the Taliban needed funds from al-Qaeda. That is no longer the case. The Taliban’s coffers are well-stocked through its relations with various patrons, including Pakistan, Iran, and Russia, as well as through its involvement in the drug trade in Afghanistan. It also garners funds locally from extortion and protection rackets. Furthermore, it enjoys substantial support from donor networks in the Gulf. Thus, to the extent that al-Qaeda provides the Taliban with resources, they are not pivotal to the Taliban’s financial health.
  While al-Qaeda and the Taliban share antipathy towards the Islamic State, there are no indications that the Taliban has needed al-Qaeda’s assistance in forcibly challenging the Islamic State’s local affiliate, the Islamic State in the Khorasan.
  Nonetheless, some in the Taliban still have a soft spot for al-Qaeda. As recently as 2015, al-Qaeda operated a massive training facility in Kandahar until it was destroyed by the United States. Whether the facility was an anomaly or an indication that the Taliban remains willing to offer al-Qaeda operating space in its territory remains unclear. In addition, the Haqqani Network faction of the Taliban has long been close to al-Qaeda. They have conducted joint operations and al-Qaeda has benefited from Haqqani protection. The Haqqanis’ support for al-Qaida is more important than ever since the faction’s leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani, ascended to the number two spot in the Taliban in 2015.
  This arrangement works well for al-Qaeda because the insurgency in Afghanistan is not its top priority. In recent years, some of its skilled military and explosives experts have even left Afghanistan for Syria. By Ayman al-Zawahiri’s own admission, Afghanistan is on the periphery of the larger battle in which Iraq and Syria command more importance.
  Since the Islamic State’s emergence, al-Qaeda has garnered additional benefits from its alliance with the Taliban. Al-Qaeda sought to discredit the Islamic State’s claims to have formed a caliphate with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the caliph. It did so by touting the Taliban’s leader as the “true” leader of the faithful. This effort initially backfired in the wake of humiliating revelations in 2015 that Mullah Omar had died in 2013. Nonetheless, al-Qaeda stuck with the approach, hailing the Taliban as the only theologically legitimate alternative to the Islamic State.
  The alliance between these two movements has long defied the apparent cost-benefit calculation, suggesting that their ties run deeper, especially after 17 years of fighting together. Their bond was once attributed primarily to the personal relationship between Mullah Omar and Bin Laden. Thus, Bin Laden’s death in 2011 and the revelation of Mullah Omar’s 2013 death seemed to be an opening for the Taliban to break with al-Qaeda. Once again, in defiance of predictions, the alliance persisted.
  However, Zawahiri does not enjoy the same standing as Bin Laden with the Taliban or even among al-Qaeda’s other allies. Mullah Omar’s successors have suffered from their own legitimacy shortfalls. Consequently, they have sought to navigate Zawahiri’s declarations of bayat carefully. Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour publicly accepted Zawahiri’s pledge, only to subsequently remove the announcement from the Taliban’s website. The Taliban’s current leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada has not publicly endorsed Zawahiri’s most recent pledge.
  The Taliban has also undertaken some rhetorical maneuvers to distance itself from al-Qaeda publicly. Most notably, the Taliban’s current leader pledged that the group will not allow Afghanistan to be used for attacks on other countries.
  While proponents of negotiations are encouraged by the move, al-Qaeda is probably relatively untroubled by such declarations. It does not and never has felt compelled to consult the Taliban about its operations outside of Afghanistan: It is beyond the scope of their alliance. Moreover, the Taliban’s rhetorical steps have been uneven and contradictory; it has also issued statements in recent years seemingly touting ties with al-Qaeda.
  Determining the Taliban’s view is difficult because proponents of negotiations within the Taliban are likely the same individuals who would like to break ties with al-Qaeda anyway, so their views on the topic may not represent important factions within the Taliban. Conversely, at least some of those within the Taliban who oppose negotiations would probably also reject renouncing al-Qaeda. In other words, Taliban leadership will have to strike a difficult, perhaps impossible, balance between these two positions.
  At the same time, Taliban leaders have to be vigilant to avoid fragmentation: a major hurdle to serious negotiations and an eventual political settlement. Though the Taliban has shown remarkable unity to date, Mullah Omar’s successors do not enjoy the same levels of loyalty and deference from Taliban members as he did. The Taliban lost power because its revered founding leader refused to relinquish al-Qaeda. While the insurgency in Afghanistan is certainly not about protecting al-Qaeda, reversing Mullah Omar’s 2001 positon will not be a small feat for any Taliban leader, especially one whose grasp on the various factions within the organization is not fully secure.
  Tricia Bacon is an assistant professor at American University’s School of Public Affairs, fellow at Fordham University’s Center for National Security, and non-resident fellow at George Washington’s Program on Extremism. She is the author of Why Terrorist Groups Form International Alliances (University of Pennsylvania, 2018). She was previously a counterterrorism analyst at the U.S. State Department from 2003-2013.
  Lord Derwood is kind and compassionate man, jocular in his good moods, but peevish and petulant in his poor moods. A close friend and confidante of His Majesty, King Harold, Lord Derwood became acquainted with the King in his Oxbridge days when the two were young bucks feeling their wild oats. Lord Derwood quickly secured the young prince's confidence when the two were out hunting and Lord Derwood had the opportunity to save his friend from a rampaging boar. King Harold has in Lord Derwood a loyal and faithful servant, whom he can trust with his life.
  Lady Chesterfield, known among her subjects as the "sorrowful lass," is a quiet spoken, elegant woman. Serious and sensitive, Lady Chesterfield spends much of her day brooding on her lot in life and on the social ills she sees plaguing the realm. Her marriage has not been a happy one as it has often been lonely and faithless, a truth which cuts deeply and upon which the Lady dwells unceasingly. The match was designed to join His Lordship to a woman of the noble classes, and it worked to bring her family,
  whose fortunes were spent, much needed treasure. However, the Lady's heart was not consulted and her happiness never ensured.
  Anthony Chesterfield is the heir to the Duchy of Andover and to the Chesterfield estate. An ambitious and stalwart young man, he has gained the confidence of his people, and is beloved by many who ardently wish for him to lead them well. Anthony is currently pursuing a degree from Oxbridge University.
  Strong willed and confident, the Lady Emma looks forward to her marriage with Anseley Dernier, son of Lord Everett Dernier. She is currently serving as a lady-in-waiting to her majesty, Queen Anne.
  DESPERATE PLEA FOR ATTENTION…. We learned last night that President Obama expects health care reform to cost “around $900 billion over 10 years.” Obviously, that’s a considerable investment, but the president reminded Americans that this is less than what the U.S. has spent in Iraq and Afghanistan, and unlike those wars, health care reform will not automatically be added to the debt.
  “….President Obama delivered an offhand applause line tonight about the cost of the War on Terror. As we approach the anniversary of the September 11th attacks and honor those who died that day and those who have died since in the War on Terror, in order to secure our freedoms, we need to remember their sacrifices and not demonize them as having had too high a price tag.”
  Now, on a variety of levels, this is clearly insane. Indeed, as Greg Sargent noted, “For sheer creativity, that one easily rivals the death panels.” To suggest the president “demonized” 9/11 victims and/or American soldiers is to have completely lost sight of reality. Palin’s complaint is practically pathological.
  But the point of this latest nonsense isn’t to find fault with a cost comparison, it’s the latest effort to position the former governor as a leading White House critic. Maybe Palin really believes the president was “demonizing” terror victims; maybe not. She’s easily confused, but her genuine beliefs don’t really matter.
  This is about Palin’s latest cry for attention. The more ridiculous the claim, the more likely the desired reaction. And for all I know, it’ll work just fine — “the media loves a good fight, even when the charges are unfounded.”
  I’m a big believer in political science as check on reckless analysis. But political scientists are just unbearably smug.
  I thought Jon Ladd dealt with this appropriately (“Have you ever tried to talk to an economist?”). But I’ve been thinking more and more about Sargent’s comment in the wake of the recent dialogue between the likes of Jonathan Bernstein, Ed Kilgore, and my co-bloggers Julia Azari and Jennifer Victor over the knowledge gaps between political scientists and the general public. Sargent, in particular, suggests that political scientists, while positing themselves as dispassionate scholars, are actually prone to exaggeration and over-compensation when the heat turns up. He criticizes “the tendency of academic folk to self-polarize a bit in order to counter what they regard as the bogus folk wisdom of journalists and operatives.”
  Are we smug? Do we over-compensate? Possibly, although probably no more than any specialist in any other field. I consider this smug behavior simply a consequence of recent attempts by political scientists to reach out to a broader audience beyond the university. In fact, the discovery that political scientists are smug is a fantastic step forward. We were smug ten years ago, but no one noticed. Being accused of smugness is one of the costs of engaging the larger public and speaking with people who aren’t political scientists. We spend years developing expertise in an area, which gives us some confidence when we speak to people outside the academic bubble. But yes, that can come off as obnoxious if we aren’t careful, which just ends up alienating the people we’re trying to reach.
  And yes, our description of our research may come off as exaggeration and over-compensation when we speak outside the academy. This is, in part, a by-product of scientific research, in which we are trained to rigorously test and re-test our ideas, to issue caveats about the tenuous nature of our findings, to control for various confounding factors, and to consider alternate hypotheses. This is a vital part of the scientific process, but it makes for lousy public debate. Condensing a 30-page academic paper into an 800-word blog post, a two-minute conversation with a reporter, or a 140-character tweet will undoubtedly make it more interesting, but will come at a considerable cost. The caveats, the nuance, the alternate hypotheses, and nearly everything else is dumped overboard in favor of pith and persuasion. “Third quarter economic growth in 2016 will pick the next presidential election” is just far more interesting than “Election year economic growth tends to be associated with greater vote shares for the incumbent party’s presidential candidate, but can be mitigated by war or ideological extremism, and campaign spending probably won’t have much of an impact unless it’s a close race, and 2016 is an out-of-sample prediction anyway so we can’t have too much confidence in it.”
  So let’s just concede the point. Yes, we can be smug sometimes. And we can be better than that. And while journalists can certainly be smug, too (read an op-ed page lately?), the better ones have figured out a good antidote: they ask a lot of questions. It’s hard to come off as a smug know-it-all when you’re making inquiries, and that’s as much a part of good journalism as it is a part of good scholarship.
  Looking at Rick Perry’s very long-shot 2016 presidential campaign, and the plummeting trajectory of his 2012 campaign, it’s hard to remember what a big brawling menace he seemed to be when he announced his previous candidacy from the stage of Erick Erickson”s Red State Gathering in Charleston on August 13, 2011. He strutted the stage tossing out red meat to the conservative activists with a Texas-sized arrogance that brought back memories of you-know-who on that aircraft carrier. (I remember a cartoon from that period showing him ripping a terrified donkey’s head from its body as crowds went wild; it wasn’t much of an exaggeration of his early appeal at all). He had all that Texas money. He had a genius staff deeply stepped in social science research. He had the inside track with the Christian Right. And best of all, he had an economic narrative in a party desperate for one.
  Yeah, upon his announcement in 2011, as he squeezed the vital juices out of Michele Bachmann’s Iowa Straw Poll victory on the very same day, it sure looked like Republicans had found their “electable True Conservative Alternative to Mitt Romney” candidate, particularly since Bachmann did manage to croak the other aspirant to that title, Tim Pawlenty, before she retreated to her fever swamps.
  And then…well, then everything went wrong pretty fast for ol’ Rick. For one thing, his genius staff started to look like provincial Texas yahoos at sea in a national campaign as he ran around the country trying to make up for his late start. But his puffed up reputation was fatally deflated by serial debate performances in which he appeared, depending on how you looked at it, as Bobo the Simpleminded or as an immigrant-loving RINO squish. Mitt Romney ate him up on both counts, and Perry never recovered.
  As you may know, Perry subsequently blamed his debate performances on sleep deprivation and painkillers associated with a back injury. He left office, worked to improve his Dogpatch image, and now he’s back for a second bite at the apple.
  He’s not, however, anywhere close to where he was when he launched his last campaign. For one thing, his “Texas Miracle” economic claims have lost a lot of credibility. To some extent that’s because reporters like our own Phil Longman have poked big holes in it, noting that the state does very poorly on all sorts of social and economic indicators despite its recent job and population growth. Most recently, the energy sector’s problems have slowed everything down in the Lone Star State, even as California, so often contrasted with Texas by Perry and his allies as some sort of socialist dystopia, is booming.
  The 2016 landscape is far less favorable to Perry as well. Instead of the 2012 environment where Republicans were trying to decide whether they’d “settle” for their frontrunner or find an alternative in an unappealing field of misfits and retreads, in the current cycle there is no front-runner and conservative activists have plenty of choices that do not involve taking a gamble on a guy who blew what looked to be a clear path to the nomination. Even in his former Christian Right redoubt, Perry faces heavy competition from Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker and Rick Santorum, even as conservative evangelicals seem less and less inclined to follow their old-school televangelist leaders.
  And then there’s the fact that Rick Perry is entering a presidential campaign under indictment for “abuse of power.” Even if you buy Perry’s claim it’s all a trumped-up partisan witch-hunt, it’s not something likely to warm the hearts of GOPers preparing to campaign against “Clinton corruption.”
  So I don’t see Perry 2.0 going very far. Right now his immediate goal has to be to do well enough in national polls to ensure himself a spot on the August 6 Fox News debate stage. In the latest RealClearPolitics average of national GOP polls (not the precise measure Fox News will use, but a good indicator of trends nonetheless), Perry is running tenth, just above the cut. It would be strangely appropriate if Perry ’16 fell apart just short of the debate stage where Perry ’12 fell apart. Time will soon tell.
  Cannabis policy change in the United States has been driven, until now, by people whose interest in the matter was primarily non-commercial: pot smokers yearning to toke free, culture warriors of the (cultural) left, libertarians, criminal justice reformers concerned about arrest and incarceration, and people who think that it’s bad policy to criminalize the behavior of tens of millions of people unless there’s a stronger reason to do so than the risks of cannabis create.
  Not that economic interests have been entirely absent; Dennis Peron was in the business of selling “medical marijuana” when he spearheaded Proposition 215. But Peron was also a righteous stoner; there’s no reason to doubt the sincerity of his expressed opinion that “all marijuana use is medical.” But the main funders of the recent initiatives, and of the big marijuana-legalization groups, have been ideologically-driven billionaires such as George Soros and the late Peter Lewis.Â (How old am I? Why, I’m s-o-o-o-o-o-o old that I remember when billionaires weren’t a branch of government.) And the people doing the work have been, for the most part, true believers rather than hired hacks.
  That has begun to change. Americans for Safe Access has morphed from an advocacy group for medical-marijuana patients to, in effect, a trade association of medical-marijuana growers and sellers. The National Cannabis Industries Association has taken things even further, hiring a Washington lobbyist who might have been provided by Central Casting: about as far, culturally, from a typical NORML or MPP activist as it’s possible to imagine.
  Inevitably, then, the marijuana movement has begun to give way to the marijuana lobby. To be sure, I’ve had my share of clashes with movement folks, and I haven’t always been impressed with their policy acumen or their standards of argument, but I’ve never seen any reason to doubt that they’re advocating the public interest as they perceive it. The people now being hired by the guys in suits doing cannabis-business stock promotions play by different rules. I expect them to have about the same ethical standards as lobbyists for the alcohol, tobacco, pharmaceutical, food, and fossil-fuels industries: that is, I expect them to be utterly willing to sacrifice human health and welfare on the altar of the operating statement, just like those folks at VW who decided it would be a cute idea to poison the air just a little bit to goose the performance of their diesel-driven cars.
  I’m mostly worried about the fact that, in order to sell a lot of cannabis, you have to sell to people with cannabis use disorder; responsible use simply doesn’t go through enough ounces. (A three-joint a day smoker – of whom there are currently a few million – consumes something like 100x as much cannabis as the median smoker, who uses once a month or less.) So I expect the lobby to be even more indifferent than the movement has been to the risks of increasing cannabis use disorder, which has already grown about a factor of seven since 1992.
  But we can also expect direct raids on the public purse. The most outrageous current example is Responsible Ohio, which might politely be described as an open conspiracy to defraud Ohio taxpayers. A group of ten entrepreneurs put up $2 million each to draft and circulate an initiative petition to legalize cannabis growing and sale in Ohio. The proposal – which, if it passes next month, will be written into the Ohio constitution – will allow pot to be grown only on ten parcels of land, specified in the proposition. By some freaky coincidence, it just happens that each of the generous-spirited citizens sponsoring the proposition – including, inevitably, a Taft – turns out to be the owner of one of those parcels. So they are attempting to grant themselves oligopoly control over the cannabis market in perpetuity.
  I’m glad to see from my Twitter feed that some prominent legalization advocates, including Ethan Nadelmann of the Drug Policy Alliance, Dan Riffle of the Marijuana Policy Project and Tom Angell of the Marijuana Majority, have strongly denounced this piece of open banditry. But I’m sorry to see that none of the prominent legalization groups (including DPA, MPP or MM) has actually come out against the proposition, and that NORML has actually endorsed it. Apparently the tribal nature of the marijuana issue just makes it impossible for any pro-legalization group to come out against a legalization measure, no matter how appallingly drafted.
  So the laxity of the marijuana movement in the face of this outrage by the marijuana lobby is fully understandable. But that doesn’t make it admirable.
  Footnote Yes, the basic blame goes to the elected officials of Ohio; there’s a Ph.D. thesis in political science to be written on the question why an issue with sufficient popular support to win referenda has so little backing from legislators. (My personal theory has to do with the power of local law enforcement, especially police and prosecutors; it’s dangerous for any legislator to be called “soft on crime” by the local DA or the head of the local police union.)
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