text: Trend suggests start of strong monsoons era - The Economic Times
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  , ET Bureau Last Updated: Sep 30, 2020, 08:19 AM IST
  New Delhi: India has seen two consecutive years of strong rainfall after decades, which seems to suggest the start of an era of strong monsoons, the country's top meteorologists said.
  "For a long time, we did not have this type of situation, where it is close to 110% in consecutive years," Sivananda Pai, head of long-range forecasting at the India Meteorological Department told ET. "Starting from 70s, up to now, we were passing through a below-normal epoch. It looks like now it may be changing," he said.
  Calling this year's precipitation a "turning point", Pai said that such processes take years to monitor before anything can officially be declared. "We have to see for a few more years whether we are entering into a new phase," he said.
  Other scientists agreed. "Although meteorology is not an exact science, to put it simply, the Earth's relative position with the Sun keeps changing over time. That might explain this shift," said Laxman Singh Rathore, former IMD director-general, and a consultant with UNDP and World Bank. Rathore said that recorded history has shown a cyclical strong and weak phase of the monsoon spread over two to three decades.
  Monsoon rain this year has been above normal for three of the four months, with only July ending with a 10% deficit. As a result, a bumper harvest is expected, with crop planting already up over previous years.
  This will cheer policymakers, farmers and manufacturers as good monsoon rainfall boosts demand for consumer goods, gold, cars, motorcycles, tractors, farm equipment and inputs such as pesticides, fertilisers, and seeds.
  Most parts of the country received good rainfall this year although rainfall in northern and north-western India has been 16% below normal this season.
  The deficiency was mostly contributed by Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, and western Uttar Pradesh. "The lack of any low-pressure areas developing in July really hurt the region. The low-pressure systems did not reach northern India at all in July and September," Pai said.
  The southwest monsoon made its onset over the subcontinent on June 1, its usual date. However, its pace over the next month was rapid, covering the entire country 12 days before its scheduled date. It also began its retreat after an 11-day delay.