code: public boolean isDue() {
          if (isUpToDate)
              return false;
  
          // only admin users should see this
          if (!Jenkins.getInstance().hasPermission(Jenkins.ADMINISTER))
              return false;
  
          // only show when Jenkins is fully up & running
          WebApp wa = WebApp.getCurrent();
          if (wa==null || !(wa.getApp() instanceof Jenkins))
              return false;
  
          return System.currentTimeMillis() > SetupWizard.getUpdateStateFile().lastModified();
      }
docs: Do we need to show the upgrade wizard prompt?