Though by themselves the economic disruptions directly associated with the Middle-East and North African political turmoil (or the earthquake, tsunamis and nuclear crisis in Japan) should have minimal impacts at the global level. GDP growth in Egypt and Tunisia is expected to come in at around 2.5 and 1.5 percent respectively, about 3 percentage points lower than expected 3 months ago. If oil prices were to rise sharply and durably—either because of increased uncertainty or due to a significant disruption to oil supply, global growth could slow by between 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points in 2011 and 2012, respectively. 1 High food and fuel prices pose a threat to global inflation, and hence growth and poverty reduction.
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