Why does a ETN that is supposed to track Crude Oil like UWTI show constant decline every year? And am I an idiot for investing in it?
After looking at both S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return (INDEXSP:SPGSCLP) and CS VS 3x LC ETN NYSEARCA: UWTI they seem to track well (using Google Finance).   I'm not seeing where your statement this ETN loses whether oil is gaining or not holds true.   Both have posted a year-over-year loss. In the past year the Crude Oil index has fallen from a high of 494 on October 6, 2014 to a low of 213 as of today October 5th, 2015.  So of course the UWTI will lose as well. Please also notice that that, as stated in the prospectus for UWTI: The ETNs are intended to be daily trading tools for sophisticated   investors to manage daily trading risks. They are designed t o achieve   their stated investment objectives on a daily basis, but their   performance over different periods of time can differ significantly fr   om their stated daily objectives. The ETNs are riskier than securities   that have intermediate or long-term investment objectives, and may not   be sui table for investors who plan to hold them for a period other   than one day. You might want to look into investing in an ETF for long term investment goals and objectives.  Oil ETF List This security looks like it will require patience for it to pay off. The 200 day moving average looks as if it will soon cross over the 20 day moving average. When that happens the security can be said to be in a bull run.  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UWTI&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p10888728027 However, this is just speculation... trying to make money via 'buy low, sell high' as I have stated previously, you have about a 25% chance of buying at the low and selling at the high. Better to buy into a fund that pays dividends and reinvest those dividends. Such as: http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/uncategorized/other/pgf-invesco-powershares-financial-preferred-portfolio/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PGF&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59773821284
You do know that a 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude oil provides about 45 (not a typo) gallons of petroleum products. One barrel of crude oil, when refined, produces about 19 gallons of finished motor gasoline, and 10 gallons of diesel, as well as other petroleum products. Most petroleum products are used to produce energy.  So not all of it is reflected in pump prices. Here is some good advice, read your UCO prospectus.  It seems to hold 20% of it's value ($600MM out of $3B) via 13800 of the Apr 21st 2015 contracts.  (expiring in 30 days)   Those will be rolled very quickly into the May contracts at a significant loss of NAV. (based on current oil futures chains)   Meaning if crude oil stays exactly the same price, you'd still lose 1% (5% spread loss * .20% the percentage of NAV based off futures contracts) on the roll each month.   Their other $2.4Billion is held in swaptions or cash, unsure how to rate that exposure.  All I know is those 13,800 contracts are in contango danger during roll week for the next few months (IMO).  I wonder if there is a website that tracks inflows and outflows to see if they match up with before and after the roll periods. http://www.proshares.com/funds/uco_daily_holdings.html How Oil ETFs Work Many oil ETFs invest in oil futures contracts. An oil futures contract is a commitment to buy a given amount of crude oil at a given price on a particular date in the future. Since the purpose of oil ETFs is only to serve as an investment vehicle to track the price of oil, the creators of the fund have no interest in stockpiling actual oil. Therefore, oil ETFs such as USO periodically “roll over” their futures contracts by selling the contracts that are approaching expiration and buying contracts that expire farther into the future. The Contango Problem While this process of continually rolling over futures contracts may seem like a great way to track the price of crude oil, there’s a practical problem with the method: contango. The rollover method would work perfectly if oil funds could sell their expiring contracts for the exact same price that they pay for the futures contracts they buy each month. However, in reality, it’s often true that oil futures contracts get more expensive the farther their expiration date is in the future. That means that every time the oil ETFs roll over their contracts, they lose the difference in value between the contracts they sell and the contracts they buy. That’s why funds like USO, which invests only in WTI light, sweet crude oil futures contracts, don’t directly track the performance of the WTI crude oil spot price. http://www.etftrends.com/2015/01/positioning-for-an-oil-etf-rebound-watch-for-contango/ Due to these reasons, I'd deem UCO for swing trading, not for 'investing' (buy-and-hold).  Maybe later I'll remember why one shouldn't buy and hold leveraged vehicles (leverage slippage/decay).    Do you have an exit price in mind ? or are you buy and hold ? "&gt;&gt; Darling, if you are not a fan of Hillary (and the current DNC?), than why are you against Trump, who is not even career GOP politician?  &gt; I have already addressed this stupid idea that someone HAS to like one or the other.   Are you serious? Why would you vote for someone you don't like? I would never vote for someone I don't like! I can't believe I have to explain that to you.  Further, why would you even vote for a Party you don't like?  Another question: **I assume you did not vote for Trump. Is it because you did not like Trump?** Do you get why I am asked this question?  &gt; Trump has no idea what he's doing.  Absolutely not true and total fake news.  Let's start with Hillary, who has been in politics for 30 years and even secretary of state: does she know how to handle e-mail(s)? Does she know how to handle Russia? Does she know how to handle Benghazi? Can you tell me of one ""accomplishment"" by Hillary in her long service?  Back to Trump: he's very smart, which is mostly to choose the right people to do the work for him. He's correct with his agenda: against TPP, against illegal aliens, against terrorist supporting countries, investing in infrastructure, creating jobs, bringing jobs back to America, replacing the horrendous ObamaCare (AKA ""affordable"" Care Act), etc.  **What action by Trump so far show that he's not smart?** Give me one example, please." "This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/july/global-energy-investment-fell-for-a-second-year-in-2016-as-oil-and-gas-spending-c.html) reduced by 86%. (I'm a bot) ***** &gt; Global energy investment fell by 12% in 2016, the second consecutive year of decline, as increased spending on energy efficiency and electricity networks was more than offset by a continued drop in upstream oil and gas spending, according to the International Energy Agency&amp;#039;s annual World Energy Investment report.  &gt; Global energy investment amounted to USD 1.7 trillion in 2016, or 2.2% of global GDP. For the first time, spending on the electricity sector around the world exceeded the combined spending on oil, gas and coal supply.  &gt; The United States saw a sharp decline in oil and gas investment, and accounted for 16% of global spending.   ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/6nqnvn/july_global_energy_investment_fell_for_a/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ ""Version 1.65, ~168423 tl;drs so far."") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr ""PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome."") | *Top* *keywords*: **energy**^#1 **investment**^#2 **spender**^#3 **year**^#4 **Global**^#5" If you've decided to ignore the sound advice re: oil company stocks, and you want something directly linked to the price of oil, do the following: Understand that oil producers would like avoid the risk of a price drop, and oil consumers (refiners, electric utilities, etc.) would like to avoid the risk of a price rise. Understand that you are about to assume their risk. "You can't do this automatically; you want to understand whether the drop is from a short-term high. is likely to be a short-term low, or reflects an actual change in how folks expect the company to do in the future. Having said that, some people do favor a strategy which resembles this, betting on what are known as ""the dogs of the Dow"" in the assumption that they're well trusted but not as strongly sought and therefore perhaps not bid up as strongly. I have no opinion on it; I'm just mentioning it for comparison." They haven't been doing very well for a while. Their stock was in a downward trend since October 2006. They had an upward trend since 1986, then in 2006 they transitioned to a downward slope. Their stock plummeted in 2008, then rebounded shortly after (due to the bailout?) to continue its downward trend. "The VDE fund is an energy fund so this is a function of recent price changes in oil (and gas, coal, &c).   For example. Lets say last year when oil was $100 per barrel a bunch of companies saw a good return and put $ 100 million into a bunch of leases, boreholes, pumps, &c to return $10 million per year, and the market says yeah, they're all together worth 100M. Now oil is less, maybe $40 per the link.  These exploration companies don't have a lot of labor or variable costs; they are operationally profitable, may have ""use it or lose it"" leases or minimum pumping requirements for contract or engineering reasons.  Lets say the cash flow is 7M so the market values them at 70M.  They still have about 100M book value so here we are at .7 and I believe the scenario in the question.  Nobody would invest in new capacity at this oil price.  The well equipment could be repurposed but not the borehole or lease, so the best use is to continue pumping and value it on cash flow.  If an individual well runs negative long enough and goes bust, either a different pumper will pay the minimum price that gives profitable cash flow, or that borehole that cost millions to dig is shut off and rendered valueless.  The CNBC article says some explorers are playing games with debt to maintain yield, so there is that too. In the ETF, your bet is that the market is wrong and oil will go up, increasing future cash flows (or you like the current yield, taking on the risk that some of these oil explorers could go bust)."