How to bet against IPOs?
There are 2 primary ways to bet against a stock if you think it will decline. The first is to short sell shares of that stock the second is to buy put options (I would also add that selling naked call options would also be a bet against but I don't believe that is as common as the other 2 mentioned methods). The problem with short selling an IPO is that you first have to borrow the shares you are going to sell. Since the shares are privately held prior to the IPO that can be problematic. Even after the IPO you may have to wait a bit before shares become available to borrow.  The problem with options (either buying puts or seeking naked calls) is similar. Options are traded on a different exchange than the stock and they have their own requirements that a stock must meet to have options traded. Both of these problems eventually correct themselves however, not in time for you to catch the initial fall you seem to be looking for.
"Yes, you could buy a stock on the day of its IPO. I'm a college student, and I wonder if I can buy stock from a company   right after it finishes its IPO? Yes, you can. However, unless you are friends or family of an employee, chances are you'll be paying a higher price than you think as there is generally a fair bit of hype on most  IPOs that allows some people to ""flip them"" which means someone is buying at a higher price. If I am not allowed to buy its stocks immediately after they go on   sell, how long do I have to wait? Generally I'd wait until the hype dies down as if you look at most historical IPOs the stock could be bought cheaper later but that's just my perspective. And also who are allowed to buy the stocks at the first minute they   are on sell? Anyone but keep in mind that while an IPO may be priced at $x, the initial trades may be a few times that value and the stock may come down over time. Facebook could be an example to consider of a company that had an IPO at one price and then came down for a little while on its chart over the past couple of years." "The Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company was established in 1902 as a private company.  It first raised public funds around 1903 but had a limited shareholder base.  By around 1929, it was reported as being tradeable as an OTC (over-the-counter) stock but it's likely that shares were traded well before this.  On 14 Jan 1946, the stock was listed on NYSE.  On 26 Sep 1962 it became a constituent of the the S&P 500 index.  On 9 Aug 1976 it became a constituent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In 2002, the company's name changed to 3M Co. It appears that the data on Crunchbase's ""IPO Date"" is wrong on this one. However, there are several companies that appear to do an ""IPO"" and have trading prices prior.  This is quite typical of early-stage biotech companies that trade OTC prior to a major exchange listing and ""IPO"". An example of an IPO happening after a company became publicly tradeable is NASDAQ:IMRN (Immuron). They had an ""IPO"" on Nasdaq on 9 Jun 2017, yet they had been trading as an OTC/Pink Sheet stock for months prior. They also have been listed in Australia since 30 Apr 1999. http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/activity.aspx?tab=pricings&month=2017-06 Another example is NASDAQ:GNTY (Guaranty Banchshares Inc) which had an ""IPO"" and NASDAQ listing in May 2017. This was a Nasdaq stock in 1998, went OTC/pink sheet stock in 2005. It has been paying regular dividends since that time. Clearly the word ""Initial"" is subjective!  http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/activity.aspx?tab=pricings&month=2017-05" Underwriters get blamed for underpriced IPOs, management for overpriced. People tend to target their opprobrium at whomever benefits the most, whether that opprobrium is fair or not. Kind of silly because the real discussion should be about how to find a new way of doing IPOs that actually works. This situation sounds better than most, the company it seems likely to be profitable in the future.  As such it is a good candidate to have a successful IPO.   With that your stock options are likely to be worth something.  How much of that is your share is likely to be very small.  The workers that have been their since the beginning, the venture capitalist, and the founders will make the majority of profits from an IPO or sale.  Since you and others hired at a similar time as you are assuming almost no risk it is fair that your share of the take is small.   Despite being 1/130 employees expect your share of the profits to be much smaller than .77%.  How about we go with .01%?   Lets also assume that they go public in 2.5 years and that revenues during that time continue to increase by about 25M/year.  Profit margins remains the same.  So revenues to 112M, profits to 22.5M. Typically the goal for business is to pay no more than 5 times profits, that could be supplanted by other factors, but let's assume that figure.  So about 112M from the IPO.  So .01% of that is about 11K.  That feels about right. Keep in mind there would be underwriting fees, and also I would discount that figure for things that could go wrong.  I'd be at about 5K. That would be my expected value figure, 5K.  I'd also understand that there is a very small likelihood that I receive that amount.  The value received is more likely to be zero, or enough to buy a Ferarri. There might also be some value in getting to know these people.  If this fails will their next venture be a success. In my own life, I went to work for a company that looked great on paper that just turned out to be a bust.  Great concept, horrible management, and within a couple of years of being hired, the company went bust.  I worked like a dog for nothing. It seems to be that your main point is this: No matter what, my chances cannot be worse than random and if my trading system has an edge that is greater than the percentage of the transaction that is transaction cost, then I am probabilistically likely to make a profit? In general, yes, that is true, but... Consider this very bad strategy: Buy one share of stock and sell it one minute later, and repeat this every minute of the day. Obviously you would bleed your account dry with fees. However, even this horrible strategy still meets your criteria because: if this bad strategy had an edge beyond the transaction fees you would likely still make a profit. In other words, your conclusion reduces to an uninteresting statement: If there were no transactions fees, then if your trading system has an edge then you will likely make a profit. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but IMHO, that statement, and others made in the question are just obvious things stated in convoluted ways. I don't want to discourage you from thinking about these things though. I personally really enjoy these type of thought experiments. I just feel you missed the mark on this one... "There are two ways you can ""cash in."" 1) Buy enough additional shares to bring your share total to 100, then exercise the put. 2) Sell the put in the open market for a profit." "The essence of hedging is to find an investment that performs well under the conditions that you're concerned about. If you're concerned about China stock dropping, then find something that goes up in value if that asset class goes down.  Maybe put options on a Chinese index fund, or selling short one of those funds? Or, if you're already ""in the money"" on your Chinese stock position, set a stop loss: instruct your broker to sell if that stock hits X or lower.  That way you keep some gains or limit your losses.  That involves liquidating your position, but if you've had a nice run-up, it may be time to consider selling if you feel that the prospects are dimming." You said the decision will be made by EOD. If you've made the decision prior to the market close, I'd execute on the closing price.  If you are trading stocks with any decent volume, I'd not worry about the liquidity.  If your strategy's profits are so small that your gains are significantly impacted by say, the bid/ask spread (a penny or less for liquid stocks) I'd rethink the approach. You'll find the difference between the market open and prior night close is far greater than the normal bid/ask.