Variations of Dual momentum
"There's a few layers to the Momentum Theory discussed in that book. But speaking in general terms I can answer the following: Kind of. Assuming you understand that historically the Nasdaq has seen a little more volatility than the S&P. And, more importantly, that it tends to track the tech sector more than the general economy.  Thus the pitfall is that it is heavily weighted towards (and often tracks) the performance of a few stocks including: Apple, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Amazon, Intel and Amgen.  It could be argued this is counter intuitive to the general strategy you are trying to employ. This could be tougher to justify.  The reason it is potentially not a great idea has less to do with the fact that gold has factors other than just risk on/off and inflation that affect its price (even though it does!); but more to do with the fact that it is harder to own gold and move in and out of positions efficiently than it is a bond index fund.   For example, consider buying physical gold.  To do so you have to spend some time evaluating the purchase, you are usually paying a slight premium above the spot price to purchase it, and you should usually also have some form of security or insurance for it.  So, it has additional costs.  Possibly worth it as part of a long-term investment strategy; if you believe gold will appreciate over a decade. But not so much if you are holding it for as little as a few weeks and constantly moving in and out of the position over the year. The same is true to some extent of investing in gold in the form of an ETF.  At least a portion of ""their gold"" comes from paper or futures contracts which must be rolled every month.  This creates a slight inefficiency.  While possibly not a deal breaker, it would not be as attractive to someone trading on momentum versus fundamentals in my opinion. In the end though, I think all strategies are adaptable.  And if you feel gold will be the big mover this year, and want to use it as your risk hedge, who am I or anyone else to tell you that you shouldn't."
I don't have a source for this, but intuitively more finance options could increase people's willingness to pay, which is akin to shifting the demand curve outwards, leading to an increase in price, all other things equal. Consider asking a variation of this question in /r/askeconomics for a better answer. "The share price on its own has little relevance without looking at variations. In your case, if the stock went from 2.80 to 0.33, you should care only about the 88% drop in value, not what it means in pre-split dollar values. You are correct that you can ""un-split"" to give you an idea of what would have been the dollar value but that should not give you any more information than the variation of 88% would. As for your title question, you should read the chart as if no split occurred as for most intents and purposes it should not affect stock price other than the obvious split." You're aware there's no such thing as a cheap house in Jersey right? Rental values are listed in price per DAY to make them look less scary.   Also, no, you couldn't. You pay tax in the country you are resident in and the States don't equate property ownership to residency; neither does HMRC.   Interesting side note, in Jersey's neighbour Guernsey you can own a house but not legally be allowed to live in it due to the dual property market. William %R is a momentum indicator used for measuring overbought and oversold levels, it is not used to predict the price of a stock. In fact, William %R, like all momentum indicators, is a lagging indicator - meaning the indicator level changes as the price of the stock changes. It ranges from 0 to -100. Usually when a reading is less than -80 the stock can be considered to be oversold, and when the reading is above -20 the stock can be considered overbought. When viewed together with the price chart, this can help provide a trader with entry and exit points into and out of a trade. "So, if an out-of-the-money option (all time value) has a price P (say $3.00), and there are N days... The extrinsic value isn't solely determined by time value as your quote suggests. It's also based on volatility and demand. Here is a quote from http://www.tradingmarkets.com/options/trading-lessons/the-mystery-of-option-extrinsic-value-767484.html distinguishing between extrinsic time value and extrinsic non-time value: The time value of an option is entirely predictable. Time value premium declines at an accelerating rate, with most time decay occurring in the last one to two months before expiration. This occurs on a predictable curve. Intrinsic value is also predictable and easily followed. It is worth one point for every point the option is in the money. For example, a call with a strike of 30 has three points of intrinsic value when the current value of the underlying stock is $33 per share; and a 40 put has two points of intrinsic value when the underlying stock is worth $38. The third type of premium, extrinsic value, increases or decreases when the underlying stock changes and when the distance between current value of stock and strike of the option get closer together. As a symptom of volatility, extrinsic value may be greater for highly volatile underlying stock, and lower for less volatile stocks. Extrinsic value is the only classification of option premium that is unpredictable. The SPYs you point out probably had a volatility component affecting value. This portion is a factor of expectations or uncertainty. So an event expected to conclude prior to expiration, but of unknown outcome can cause theta to be higher than p/n. For example, a drug company is being sued and the outcome of a trial will determine whether that company pays out millions or not. The extrinsic will be higher than p/n prior to the outcome of the trial then drops after.  Of course, the most common situation where this happens is earnings. After the announcement, it's not unusual to see a dramatic drop in the extrinsic portion of options. This is why sometimes a new option trader gets angry when buying calls prior to earnings. When 'surprise' good earnings are announced as hoped, the rise is stock price is largely offset by a fall in extrinsic value giving call holders little or no gain! As for the reverse situation where theta is lower than p/n would expect? Well you can actually have negative theta meaning the extrinsic portion rises over time. (this statement is a little confusing because theta is usually described as negative, but since you describe it as a positive number, negative here means the opposite of what you'd expect).  This is a quote from ""Option Volatility & Pricing"". Keep in mind that they use 'positive' theta to mean the time value increases up over time: Is it ever possible for an option to have a positive theta such that if nothing changes the option will be worth more tomorrow than it is today? When futures options are subject to stock-type settlement, as they currently are in the United States, the carrying cost on a deeply in-the-money option, either a call or a put, can, under some circumstances, be greater than the volatility component. If this happens, and the option is European (no early exercise permitted), it will have a theoretical value less than parity (less than intrinsic value). As expiration approaches, the value of the option will slowly rise to parity. Hence, the option will have a positive theta. Sheldon Natenberg. Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques (Kindle Locations 1521-1525). Kindle Edition." Highest possible is meaningless.  Ex: Use 17x Leverage on E-mini S&P 500 Futures, perfectly long before an uptick and short before a downtick every minute. Goes to the moon in a day of 1,440 minutes.  You are supposed to use a Buy-and-Hold SPY, with leverage that makes the Standard Deviation of SPY same as your Portfolio/Algorithm, as benchmark. "John Bensin's answer covers the math, but I like the plain-English examples of the theory from William Bernstein's fine book, The Intelligent Asset Allocator.  At the author's web site, you can find the complete chapter 1 and chapter 2, though not chapter 3, which is the one with the ""multiple coin toss"" portfolio example I want to highlight. I'll summarize Bernstein's multiple coin toss example here with some excerpts from the book.  (Another top user, @JoeTaxpayer, has also written about the coin flip on his blog, also mentioning Bernstein's book.) Bernstein begins Chapter 1 by describing an offer from a fictitious ""Uncle Fred"": Imagine that you work for your rich but eccentric Uncle Fred. [...] he   decides to let you in on the company pension plan. [...] you must pick   ahead of time one of two investment choices for the duration of your   employment: Certificates of deposit with a 3% annualized rate of return, or, A most peculiar option: At the end of each year Uncle Fred flips a coin. Heads you receive a 30% investment return for that year, tails a   minus 10% (loss) for the year. This will be hereafter referred to as   ""Uncle Fred’s coin toss,"" or simply, the ""coin toss."" In effect, choosing option 2 results in a higher expected return than option 1, but it is certainly riskier, having a high standard deviation and being especially prone to a series of bad tosses.  Chapters 1 and 2 continue to expand on the idea of risk, and take a look at various assets/markets over time.  Chapter 3 then begins by introducing the multiple coin toss example: Time passes. You have spent several more years in the employ of your   Uncle Fred, and have truly grown to dread the annual coin-toss   sessions. [...] He makes you another offer. At the end of each year,   he will divide your pension account into two equal parts and conduct a   separate coin toss for each half [...] there are four possible   outcomes [...]: [...]   Being handy with numbers, you calculate that your annualized return   for this two-coin-toss sequence is 9.08%, which is nearly a full   percentage point higher than your previous expected return of 8.17%   with only one coin toss. Even more amazingly, you realize that your   risk has been reduced — with the addition of two returns at the   mean of 10%, your calculated standard deviation is now only 14.14%, as   opposed to 20% for the single coin toss. [...] Dividing your portfolio between assets with uncorrelated results increases return while decreasing risk. [...]   If the second coin toss were perfectly inversely correlated   with the first and always gave the opposite result [hence, outcomes   1 and 4 above never occurring], then our return would always be 10%.   In this case, we would have a 10% annualized long-term return with zero risk! I hope that summarizes the example well.  Of course, in the real world, one of the tricks to building a good portfolio is finding assets that aren't well-correlated, and if you're interested in more on the subject I suggest you check out his books (including The Four Pillars of Investing) and read more about Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)." the strategy is tested all the way to 97. how is the continuous series backadjusted? the emini is rolledover and Ratio back adjusted to the 2nd nearest contract, 9 days prior to expiration. since it is an intraday trade, the discrepancy to the real thing should be next to irrelevant. but comparing it to the spx could make it interesting.  what would be a good format to present the results ? jpeg? pdf ?