Is an analyst's “price target” assumed to be for 12 months out?
I wouldn't put too much stock in the guidance generically... it's more a measure of confidence in the company. When you listen to the earnings calls and start following a particular analyst, you'll understand where they come from when they kick out a number. "If the time horizon is not indicated, this is just a ""fair price"". The price of the stock, which corresponds with the fair value of the whole company. The value, which the whole business is worth, taking into consideration its net income, current bonds yield, level of risk of the business, perspective of the business etc.. The analyst thinks the price will sooner or later hit the target level (if the price is high, investors will exit stocks, if the price is cheap, investors will jump in), but no one knows, how much time will it take." The time horizon applicable to the price target is always specified by the broker or bank which published the research report.  You will find this information in the disclaimer, which is present on every research report. Usually it is 12 months, but some firms give 6 months price targets. However, you should never rely on the price target alone and always combine it with the following details (to name a few): Are the analyst's estimate above or below consensus estimates (or company guidance), did the analyst rise or lower its estimates. What is the rating on the stock (Buy, Sell, Hold...), when did he change his rating or price target.  Does the firm do business with the company? (which may influence a bullish tone and optimistic price target). I don't think you can always assume a 12-month time horizon.  Sometimes, the analyst's comments might provide some color on what kind of a time horizon they're thinking of, but it might be quite vague. Most commonly, unless you read 'fair value target price,' an analyst's target price is a 12-month target price. Typically, there is a firm wide policy determining which time horizon to use. No analyst would provide an open ended target price, it doesn't make any sense (you discount cash flows to a certain period, adjust for inflation, etc). So there is always a time horizon. Analysts normally (oxymoron here) gauge their targets on where the stock is currently and more importantly where it has been. Except for in the case of say a Dryships where it was a hundred dollar stock and is now in the single digits, it is safe to assume that Apple for instance was well over $ 700 and is now at $500, and that a price guidance of $ 580 is not that remarkable and a not so difficult level to strike. Kind of like a meteorologist; fifty percent chance of rain. Analysts and weathermen.Hard to lose your job when your never really wrong. Mr Zip, Over and outta here
The original post's $16 has two errors: Here is the first scenario: .                                                 Tax Liability($) on   Net .                        Cash    # of     Price    Paper     Realized   Value Time:                     ($)    Shares   ($/sh)   Profits    Profits    ($) 1. Start with:            100        -      n/a         -          -      100 2. After buy  10@10$/sh:    -       10       10         -          -      100 3. Before selling:          -       10       12        (5)         -      115 4. After sell 10@12$/sh:  120        -      n/a         -         (5)     115 5. After buy  12@10$/sh:    -       12       10         -         (5)     115 6. Before selling:          -       12       12        (6)        (5)     133 7. After sell 12@12$/sh:  144        -      n/a         -        (11)     133 8. After buy  14@10$/sh:    4       14       10         -        (11)     133 9. Before selling:          4       14       12        (7)       (11)     154 10.After sell 14@12$/sh:  172        -      n/a         -        (18)     154  At this point, assuming that all of the transactions occurred in the same fiscal year, and the realized profits were subject to a 25% short-term capital gains tax, you would owe $18 in taxes.  Yes, this is 25% of $172 - $100. The FDIC is pretty confident about them being legit. http://www2.fdic.gov/idasp/main_bankfind.asp  (type in Bank Of The Sierra in the name field and search on that) You got to realize how much money they will make if you use them per the agreement.  Every credit card / debit transaction gets them some cash.  Businesses get between 1 and 5% of each transaction even on debit cards.  Then there is a flat fee the merchant pays for accepting the credit card between .25 and .50 per transaction.  Even at 12 transactions a month, the bank is looking at making around $6/month.  Probably more because who uses a debit card just 12 times a month.  It would be convenient for most people to juse use it all the time. Does 4.09% APY beat $6/month?  You would have to keep a balance of $2000 plus to cost more than you earn.  And if you keep more than $2k in the account, they have other ways to make money off of you. I would also assume they make money on the bill pay and direct deposit side of things, but I can't speak for certain about that. Bottom line is this seems like a good deal to attract customers, they would rather make a bit less profit then BofA to grow their business.  They are betting their offer restrictions will change your habits and make you more profitable to them. Paying the minimum balance on a loan can be DEVASTATING and is highly UN-RECOMMENDED. It is important you understand your loan and the terms associated with it. Loans are given for a period of time but if you pay the minimum it does NOT mean you will pay it all off by the end. When paying a loan money is applied to the interest first and any extra amount is then applied to the principle. Here's an example: If I have a $12 loan for 1 year. The interest is 100%. My minimum payment each month is $1. If I pay that minimum only I will be stuck paying $12 at the end of the loan. Why you ask? because each month I'm being charged $1 interest and the payment I am making is only going towards that interest. However if I paid $2 instead now $1 goes to the principal (the original $12 I borrowed). This means that next month I will only be charged interest on $11 dollars instead of $12. You need to know how much is going towards the interest of your loan and how much is going towards the principle you can speak with your bank about this and they will help you understand. In many cases they actually provide you with the numbers on your statment with examples of how long it would take to payoff your loan with minimum only and how long it would take if you added an extra x amount each month. I recommend using the Snowball Method to pay of your debt. It's simple and effective. How much you should add to each monthly payment depends on how much you can afford to add. Here are some calculators you can play around with: CNN Money Bank Rate Calc Edit: So with the additional information you provided we can estimate that you have about 2200 free cash flow each month(that's your cash after you pay all your bills). We can put away 500 each month for a rainy day fund, just to be safe.(job loss, accidents, or anything we can't predict) So assuming that is all your expenses including the money you spend on entertainment. That leaves you with $1700 you can add on to your loan payments. So you can pay off your third loan in 1 month. Then add the remaining balance to the 2nd loan. With this income it should take you less then a year to pay off all your loans. "Here are some things to consider if you want to employ a covered call strategy for consistent returns. The discussion also applies to written puts, as they're functionally equivalent. Write covered calls only on fairly valued stock. If the stock is distinctly undervalued, just buy it. By writing the call, you cap the gains that it will achieve as the stock price gravitates to intrinsic value. If the stock is overvalued, sell it, or just stay away. As the owner of a covered call position, you have full exposure to the downside of the stock. The premium received is normally way too small to protect against much of a drop in price. The ideal candidate doesn't change in price much over the life of the position. Yes, this is low volatility, which brings low option premiums. As a seller you want high premiums. But this can't be judged in a vacuum. No matter how high the volatility in absolute terms, as a seller you're betting the market has overpriced volatility. If volatility is high, so premiums are fat, but the market is correct, then the very real risk of the stock dropping over the life of the position offsets the premium received. One thing to look at is current implied volatility for the at-the-money (ATM), near-month call. Compare it to the two-year historical volatility (Morningstar has this conveniently displayed). Moving away from pure volatility, consider writing calls about three months out, just slightly out of the money. The premium is all time value, and the time value decay accelerates in the final few months. (In theory, a series of one-month options would be higher time value, but there are frictional costs, and no guarantee that today's ""good deal"" will be repeatable twelve time per year.) When comparing various strikes and expirations, compare time value per day. To compare the same statistic across multiple companies, use time value per day as a percent of capital at risk. CaR is the price of the stock less the premium received. If you already own the stock, track it as if you just bought it for this strategy, so use the price on the day you wrote the call. Along with time value per day, compare the simple annualized percent return, again, on capital at risk, measuring the return if a) the stock is called away, and b) the stock remains unchanged. I usually concentrate more on the second scenario, as we get the capital gain on the stock regardless, without the option strategy. Ideally, you can also calculate the probability (based on implied volatility) of the stock achieving these price points by expiration. Measuring returns at many possible stock prices, you can develop an overall expected return. I won't go into further detail, as it seems outside the scope here. Finally, I usually target a minimum of 25% annualized if the stock remains unchanged. You can, of course, adjust this up or down depending on your risk tolerance. I consider this to be conservative." If you want to invest in the stock market, whether over a shorter period of 1 to 2 years or over a longer period of 10 or 20 years or longer you need to take some precautions and have a written investment plan with a risk management strategy incorporated in your plan. Others have said that 1 to 2 years is too short to invest in the stock market as the stock market can have a correction and fall by 50%. But it doesn't matter if you invest for 1 year or if you invest for 50 years, the stock market can still fall by 50% just before you plan to withdraw your funds. What you need to figure out is a way to get out before the market falls by 40% to 50%. A simple way to do this is to use technical indicators to warn you when a market trend is starting to change and that it is time to get out of the market. Two simple indicators you can use on a market index are the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator and the 100 week Moving Average (MA). Below is a 10 year weekly chart of the S&P500 with these two indicators charted. They show good times to get into the market and good times to get out.  If you are using the 100 week MA you would buy in when the price crosses above the MA line and sell when the price crosses below the MA line. If you are using the ROC indicator you would buy in when the ROC indicator crosses above the zero line and sell when the ROC indicator crosses below the zero line. So your investment plan could be to buy an Index ETF representing the S&P500 when the ROC moves above zero and sell when it crosses below zero. You can also place a trailing stop loss of 10% to protect you in case of a sudden fall over a couple of days. You can manage your investments in as little as 10 minutes per week by checking the chart once per week and adjusting your stop loss order.  If you want to progressively add to your investment each month you could check the charts and only add any new funds if both the ROC is above zero and sloping upwards. Another option for adding new funds could be if the price is above the MA and moving further away from the MA. All these rules should be incorporated into your investment plan so that you are not basing your decisions based on emotions. There are many other Technical Analysis Indicators you could also learn about to make better educated decisions about your stock market investments. However, what I have provided here is enough for anyone to test over different indexes and time frames and do their own paper trading on to gain some confidence before placing any real money on the table. well well, good question, worth a discussion, the more filters you add to your strategy (volatility in this case), the lower its predictive power. i mean, one could further filter it by day of the week, whether prices are above or below a 200 day moving average...etc. Should be noted that pacoverflow's answer is wrong. Yahoo back-adjusts all the previous (not current or future) values based on a cumulative adjustment factor. So if there's a dividend ex-date on December 19, Yahoo adjusts all the PREVIOUS (December 18 and prior) prices with a factor which is: 1 - dividend / Dec18Close The indication is based on the average Buy-Hold-Sell rating of a group of fundamental analysts. The individual analysts provide a Buy, Hold or Sell recommendation based on where the current price of the stock is compared to the perceived value of the stock by the analyst.  Note that this perceived value is based on many assumptions by the analyst and their biased view of the stock. That is why different fundamental analysts provide different values and different recommendations on the same stock. So basically if the stock's price is below the analyst's perceived value it will be given a Buy recommendation, if the price is equal with the perceived value it will be given a Hold recommendation and if the price is more than the perceived value it will be given a Sell recommendation. As the others have said this information IMHO is useless.