If banks offer a fixed rate lower than the variable rate, is that an indication interest rates may head down?
"This is known as an inverted yield curve. It is rare, and can be caused by a few things, as discussed at the link. It can be because the view is that the economy will slow and therefore interest rates will go down. It is not caused by ""secret"" preparation. It could also be that there is generally in the world a move towards safer investments, making their interest rates cheaper. If I had to guess (and this guess is worth what you paid for it) it is because Australia's interest rate is significantly greater than other parts of the world, long term lower risk investment is being attracted there, as it gets a better return than elsewhere. This is pushing rates lower on long term bonds. So I would not take it as an indication of a soon-to-be economic downturn simply because in this global economy Australia is different in ways that influence investment and move interest rates." Usually that is the case that when fixed rates are lower than the variable rates, it is an indication that the banks feel the next movement in rates could be down. You also need to look at the fixed rates for different periods, for example 1 year fixed compared to 3 year fixed and 5 year fixed rates. If you find the 3 and 5 year fixed rates are higher than the 1 year fixed rates this could be an indication that the banks feel rates will fall in the short term but the falls won't last long and will continue to rise after a year or so. If the 3 year fixed rates are also low in comparison, then the banks may feel that the economy is heading for a longer term down trend. The banks won't want to lose out, so will change their fixed rates on their perception of where they feel the economy is headed. Since your post in May 2011, the standard variable rate has since dropped twice (in November and December) to be at 7.30%. You will also find that fixed rates have also been dropped further by the banks, indicating additional future cuts in the variable rates. Regards, Victor
Some loans have a variable interest rate which can protect the lender from inflation and the borrower from deflation. How much protection it offers depends on how closely the interest rate follows the inflation/deflation rate. Most variable rate loans have limits on how much and how frequently they can adjust. In your deflation scenario, the lender comes out ahead with a fixed rate loan already, since those future dollars are worth more than current dollars.  The borrower doesn't owe more dollars, but the value of the dollars they owe is higher. Yes, you may do this at any time before signing - but to make a change like this after the official loan documents have been drawn up will cost you extra fees.  The typical redraw fee is around $200 in CA.   Does it make sense to do so?  No, it does not.  If you have an extra 1%, it would probably be better to use that money to purchase a lower interest rate.  Here's an example: Let's say you're buying a $200,000 house and your offered interest rate is 4.75% (just an example).   With 10% down you'd have a loan amount of $180,000 and a p&i payment of $938.97 per month.   With 11% down you'd have a loan amount of $178,000 and a p&i payment of $928.53 per month. Now let's pretend you buy your interest rate down to 4.375%.  With 10% down you'd still have a loan amount of $180,000 but your p&i payment would be $898.71 per month.   Even though the last option gives you the best payment, if I were in your shoes I'd stick with the 10% down and save that extra cash in the bank for a rainy day.  Buying a home comes with a lot of new expenses and many are unexpected. Good luck! "I'll answer your question, but first a comment about your intended strategy.  Buying government bonds in a retirement account is probably not a good idea.  Government bonds (generally) are tax advantaged themselves, so they offer a lower interest rate than other types of bonds.  At no tax or reduced tax, many people will accept the lower interest rate because their effective return may be similar or better depending, for example, on their own marginal tax rate.  In a tax-advantaged retirement account, however, you'll be getting the lower interest without any additional benefit because that account itself is already tax-advantaged. (Buying bonds generally may be a good idea or not - I won't comment on that - but choose a different category of bonds.) For the general question about the relationship between the Fed rate and the bond rate, they are positively correlated.  There's not direct causal relationship in the sense that the Fed is not setting the bond rate directly, but other interest bearing investment options are tied to the Fed rate and many of those interest-bearing options compete for the same investor dollars as the bonds that you're reviewing.  That's at a whole market level.  Individual bonds, however, may not be so tightly coupled since the creditworthiness of the issuing entity matters a lot too, so it could be that ""bond rates"" generally are going up but some specific bonds are going down based on something happening with the issuer, just like the stock market might be generally going up even as specific stocks are dropping. Also keep in mind that many bonds trade as securities on a secondary market much like stocks.  So I've talked about the bond rate.  The price of the bonds themselves on the secondary market generally move opposite to the rate.  The reason is that, for example, if you buy a bond at less than face value, you're getting an effective interest rate that's higher because you get the same sized incremental payments of interest but put less money into the investment.  And vice versa." Sounds like baloney to me. HELOCs are variable rate, so you are paying down the principal of a fixed rate loan with a variable rate loan. If you want to pay the mortgage down faster, make two half payments per month, and/or add a little extra to each payment (make sure with the bank that any extra will automatically go to principal). "The simple answer might just be that the increased credit score you mentioned was enough to suddenly make you eligible for this lenders better rate, so maybe that's why you weren't able to get that low a rate before. Another option I can think of is that this particular bank offers these loans as a ""teaser rate"" to hopefully get more of your business later on. It's not exactly a loss leader I would think, given the non-existing deposit rates they're probably still able to make money on the spread but they might be able to undercut other banks enough to get their hooks into you. Figuratively speaking, of course. Of course in order to evaluate if it's worth switching to this deal, you'll also have to look at prepayment penalties and fees on your current loan. These extra costs might be enough to make the switch uneconomic." Since 1971, mortgage interest rates have never been more than .25% below current rates (3.6%).  Even restricting just to the last four years, rates have been as much as .89% higher.  Overall, we're much closer to the record low interest rate than any type of high.  We're currently at a three-year low.   Yes, we should expect interest rates to go up.  Eventually.  Maybe when that happens, bonds will fall.  It hasn't happened yet though.  In fact, there remain significant worries that the Fed has been overly aggressive in raising rates (as it was around 2008).  The Brexit side effects seem to be leaning towards an easing in monetary policy rather than a tightening. Ultra-low rates can spur an unhealthy boon in M&amp;A deals/Corporate takeovers as management (defensively) and raiders (offensively) lever up cheaply to acquire companies. This can be problematic down the line when takeovers/large investments (that were funded with cheap debt) dont pan out and interest rates rise, and with it the cost of servicing that debt. A lot of loans are taken out on a fixed rate basis, so the rate is part of the contract and is therefore covered by contract law. If the loan is taken out on a variable basis then in principle the rate can rise within the terms of the contract.  If a particular lender tries to raise its rates out of line with the market then its customers will seek alternative, cheaper, loans and pay off their expensive loan if they can. If rates rise sharply in general due to unusual politico-economic circumstances then those with variable rate loans can find themselves in severe trouble.  For example the base rate in the UK (and therefore variable mortgage rates closely tied to it) spiked sharply in the late 80s which caused severe stress to a lot of borrowers and undoubtedly pushed some into financial difficulties.