What economic, political and other factors influence mortgage rates (and how)?
"If you owned a bank how would you invest the bank's money?  Typically banks are involved in loaning out money to businesses, people, and government at a higher interest rate then what they are paying to depositors.  This is the spread and how they make money. If the bank determines that the yields on government bonds is more attractive then loaning the money out to businesses and people then the bank will purchase government bonds.  It can also decide the other way.  In this manner the mortgage and bond markets are always competing for capital and tend to offer very similar yields. Certain banks have the unique privilege of being able to borrow money from the FED at the Federal Funds rate and use this money to purchase government debt or loan it out to other banks or purchase other debt products. In this manner you see a high correlation between the FED funds rate, mortgage rates, and treasury yields.    Other political factors include legislation that encourages mortgage lending (see Community Reinvestment Act) where banks may not have made the loans without said legislation. In short, keep your eye on the FED and ask yourself: ""Does the FED want rates to rise?"" and ""Can the US government afford rising rates?""  The answer to these two questions is no.  However, the FED may be pressured to ""stop the presses"" if inflation becomes unwieldy and the FED actually starts to care about food and energy prices.  So far this hasn't been the case." Without commenting on whether or not it's needed I don't think we are going to see a QE3 and all the political pressure is for some reason to start raising rates.  Regardless of how it plays out it's safe to say that the Fed Rate isn't going any lower.   You should also watch closely what happens to Fannie and Freddie.  If they are dismantled and government backed mortgages become a thing of the past then I think it'll become impossible for a consumer to find a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.  Even if they are kept alive, they will be put on a short leash and that will serve to further depress the mortgage market. Long story short, I'd lock your rate in.
"This is known as an inverted yield curve. It is rare, and can be caused by a few things, as discussed at the link. It can be because the view is that the economy will slow and therefore interest rates will go down. It is not caused by ""secret"" preparation. It could also be that there is generally in the world a move towards safer investments, making their interest rates cheaper. If I had to guess (and this guess is worth what you paid for it) it is because Australia's interest rate is significantly greater than other parts of the world, long term lower risk investment is being attracted there, as it gets a better return than elsewhere. This is pushing rates lower on long term bonds. So I would not take it as an indication of a soon-to-be economic downturn simply because in this global economy Australia is different in ways that influence investment and move interest rates." Obviously you can't predict the future too much, but it's not too hard to figure out what is going to happen to mortgage rates in the short term. Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by 10 year treasury yields.  You can find the daily 10 year rates here.  It's easy to see the direction they've been moving recently.  It usually takes a few days for mortgage rates to follow if the 10 year treasury yield is dropping (although if it's going up, mortgage rates will go up faster than they will fall). Here's a sample of all the 10 year treasury yields for the past 10 years.  Looks like a good time to get a mortgage or refinance! You can also take a look at movements in mortgage backed securities. Here you can find a chart for Fannie Mae 3.0% mortgages.  As the price goes up, mortgage rates go down.  Think of it this way. Right now people are will to pay $103 for $100 worth of 3.0% mortgages. That doesn't really make sense because I could just loan you $100 at 3.0% and turn around and sell it for $103 immediately, pocketing the $3 profit.  The reason is because right now, no one would willingly borrow money at 3.0%. Rates have fallen so much that if a bank has a customer paying them 3.0% on a mortgage, other people are willing to pay a premium on that mortgage. New mortgages are probably being written for 2.0%. (There is no current mortgage backed security for 2.0% fannie maes because rates have never been this low before). I bought a house 6 months ago for $240,000 on an $80k salary am getting by just fine and am able to save money (and I live on Long Island, an extremely expensive area to live). I would look at finding a few more interest rate quotes; for instance, Wells Fargo is offering 4.25% right now for FHA (first time home buyers) loan (which only require 3.5% down). A lower interest rate will lower your monthly payment. Make the banks compete with one another - this little bit of leg-work will save you thousands upon thousands of dollars in the long run). Also, try to negotiate to NOT paying a point down on the mortgage - most of the time they are bull, especially in this economy (banks are desperate for new loans).  However, as others have said, do not assume or count on rent coming in to be able to afford your mortgage (unless you are married). What if your friend moves out and you cannot find another tenant?  However, I strongly recommend you talk to a financial adviser and your bank mortgage loan officer to work out the numbers - you will be surprised what you can afford when you factor in your income tax and mortgage interest write-offs. "Not to state the obvious, but whenever an investment is being made, the ""nuts and bolts"" is your return on investment.  Analyzing the rate of return on an investment is the primary factor in any decision.  Ideally, once the actual mechanics of investment and side ""benefits"" are factored out, the goal is to be able to analyze the pure financial return. Usually the biggest problem faced in analyzing various investments is comparing the Present Value of an investment to a series of payments that may be made or received in the future.  When considering the purchase of a large equity, for example, you might be looking at what series of payments are required to purchase the asset.  You can also reverse this and ask, ""What amount of money is equivalent to this series of payments?"" Ultimately, the Present Value of an Annuity is the way to make these comparisons equal.   Fundamentally, the Present Value of an annuity is an amount of money that should, in theory, be equivalent to a series of payments.  There is, for example, technically no difference between $1064.94 today and $100 a month for a year, at an interest rate of 1% per month.  Grant you, most people would be happier with the money now, but that is what interest does - it compensates you for waiting on your money.   You can fire up a spreadsheet and calculate the Present Value as long as you have the monthly payment, interest rate, and number of periods.  Alternatively, you can calculate any one of those missing four variables - and the key is usually to understand what that rate would be in order to compare the investments. Finally, the taxable implication is really just an adjustment to the rate of return. Imagine the following three scenarios: (Obviously the rates are fictional - the goal is to show they are the same). Scenarios 1 & 2 are really just two sides of the same coin.  Using the Future Value formula in Excel = FV(0.5%, 12, -100), you get $1233.56.  In scenario 1, you would have $1233.56 in your bank account.  In scenario 2, your bank would have $1233.56 from you, and you would have $100 less debt per month.  They are equivalent transactions.   Scenario 3 is really just a variation on scenario 2, localized to the United States.  Because the interest is tax deductible, however, the rate of 6% isn't really accurate.  Assuming you had a 25% tax bracket, you'd actually be getting back one quarter of your interest.  Put another way, 7.5% mortgage interest costs you as much as 6% credit card debt. This is how you compare apples and organges - just turn everything into an annuity or a lump sum, using Present Value calculations.   Finally, quick rule of thumb - if you owe taxes in both Canada and the US, your Canadian taxes are probably higher than your American ones.  As such, any tax incentives will be concomitantly higher.  If you only can only use Canadian tax incentives, then look to those incentives, other things being equal." One will find that the fixed 30 year mortgage rate is tightly correlated to the 10 year treasury. An adder of 2-2.5% or so, changing slightly with the rest of the economy, as money can get tight or loose independent of the rate itself. In 2011 we are witnessing low rates yet tough loan standards, this is the phenomenon I am referencing. how do these margins vary over time Depends on a lot of factors. The bank's financial health, bank's ongoing business activities, profits generated from it's other businesses. If it is new to mortgages, it mightn't take a bigger margin to grow its business. If it is in the business for long, it might not be ready to tweak it down. If the housing market is down, they might lower their margin's to make lending attractive. If their competitors are lowering their margins, the bank in question might also. Do they rise when the base rate rises, or fall, or are they uncorrelated? When rates rise(money is being sucked out to curb spending), large amount of spending decreases. So you can imagine margins will need to decrease to keep the mortgage lending at previous levels. Would economic growth drive them up or down? Economic growth might make them go up. Like in case 1, base rates are low -> people are spending(chances are inflation will be high) -> margins will be higher(but real value of money will be dependent on inflation)  Is there any kind of empirical or theoretical basis to guess at their movement? Get a basic text book on macroeconomics, the rates and inflation portion will be there. How the rates influence the money supply and all. It will much more sense. But the answer will encompass a mixture of all conditions and not a single one in isolation. So there isn't a definitive answer.  This might give you an idea of how it works. It is for variable mortgage but should be more or less near to what you desire. "This is a hard question to answer.  Government debt and mortgages are loosely related.  Banks typically use yields on government bonds to determine mortgage interest rates.  The banks must be able to get higher rates from the mortgage otherwise they would buy government bonds. Your question mentions default so I'm assuming a country has reneged on its promise to pay either the principal or interest on government bonds. The main thing to consider is ""Who does not get their money?"".  In other words, who does the government decide not to pay.  This is the important part.  The government will have some money so they could pay some bond holders.  They must decide who to shaft. For example, let's look at who holds Greek government debt.  Around 70% of Greek government debt is held outside Greece.  See table below.  The Greek government could decide to default only on the debt to foreign holders.  In that case the banks in France and Switzerland would take the loss on their bonds.  This could cause severe problems in France and Switzerland depending on the percentage of Greek bonds that make up the banks' assets.  Greek banks would still face losses, however, since the price of their Greek bond holdings would drop sharply when the government defaults.  Interestingly, the losses for the Greek banks may be smaller than the losses faced by the French and Swiss banks.  This is usually the favored option chosen by government since the French and Swiss don't vote in Greece. Yields on Greek government bonds would rise dramatically.  If your Greek mortgage is an adjustable rate mortgage then you could see some big adjustments upward.  If you live in France or Switzerland then the bank that owns your mortgage may go under if Greece defaults.  During liquidation the bank will sell their assets which includes mortgages and you will probably not notice any difference in your mortgage. As I stated earlier: this is a hard question to answer since the two financial instruments involved (bonds and mortgages) are similar but may or may not be related." The banks and the Fed inflated the housing bubble. There was too much money floating around and it went into housing and loans for housing. The banks are highly responsible for this crisis because the failed to investigation into who was receiving the loans (due diligence). In turn, many of these same banks sold these crap and uninvestigated loans as CDOs and the like (made triple A by the ratings agencies, paid by the banks) to other investors, bringing in more cash that was quickly loaned out to keep the whole process going. All the while they were filing and registering these mortgage records with MERS to avoid paying various jurisdictions the fees and taxes owed (this is many 10s of billions of dollars). The easy money created artificial and inflated demand and completely distorted the housing market.   Other than those large points, the banks are utterly blameless.