If a trendline or pattern breaks due to some bad news but it returns back what to do?
There is a technique called the Elliott wave which explains these 'shocks'. The reversal directions you are questioning are part of the pattern, it is known as corrections. The Elliott wave is an indicator based on psychology of investors. Think about it this way, if you see a huge up trend what are you most likely to do, sell and make profit or continue, this is why there is a shock before it continues. Many people will sell to be safe, especially after hearing the bad news they won't risk it. By learning the Elliott wave you'll be able to make an educated decision on whether or not to stay or leave. Here are websites on the Elliott wave: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/elliott-wave.html The Elliott wave is helpful in any time frame and works well with momentum. Hope this helps.
Quickly check the escrow balance with the new lender. What was supposed to happen is that the old lender would send the money they were holding in escrow to the new lender with information regarding how it was calculated, and what you should be charged each month. The new lender would continue servicing the escrow at the same monthly rate, until they did a yearly or semi-annually re-analysis of the escrow account. This is how all the mortgage transfers that I have had happened, as long as it wasn't due to a refinancing of the loan. If it was a refinancing the escrow transfer was done at closing. He said that they close the escrow account and refunded it and they   start a new escrow with the new lender. The new company would not want to have the money sent to you, because they would now have to require you to send the money on to them. There could be a gap of several weeks. They would have to pay any bills that come due during that gap, without the cash in the escrow account. If the escrow account is either zero, or very low, expect that the new company will be sending you a notice. The old lender could have convinced the new lender to refund the money back to them, or the old lender never transferred the funds. If a notice comes from the new lender, failure to replace the money will put your loan into default. If the sum of money is large they may have to increase the monthly escrow amount to make it up in 6 to 12 months. After that period the monthly escrow will return to a more reasonable level. If the old lender comes after you expect that the request won't be over the phone.  One thing the old lender could do is to request the loan be transferred back to them. The funds would then flow back to their company, but your escrow balance would now be zero, and they would now up your monthly escrow amount to get back on track. The study of technical analysis is generally used (sometimes successfully) to time the markets. There are many aspects to technical analysis, but the simplest form is to look for uptrends and downtrends in the charts.  Generally higher highs and higher lows is considered an uptrend.  And lower lows and lower highs is considered a downtrend.  A trend follower would go with the trend, for example see a dip to the trend-line and buy on the rebound. A simple strategy for this is shown in the chart below:  I would be buying this stock when the price hits or gets very close to the trendline and then it bounces back above it. I would then have sold this stock once it has broken through below the trendline. This may also be an appropriate time if you were looking to short this stock. Other indicators could also be used in combination for additional confirmation of what is happening to the price. Another type of trader is called a bottom fisher. A bottom fisher would wait until a break above the downtrend line (second chart) and buy after confirmation of a higher high and possibly a higher low (as this could be the start of a new uptrend). There are many more strategies dealing with the study of technical analysis, and if you are interested you would need to find and learn about ones that suit your investment styles, whether you prefer short term trading or longer term investing, and your appetite for risk. You can develop strategies using various indicators and then paper trade or backtest these strategies. You can also manually backtest a strategy in most charting packages. You can go back in time on the chart so that the right side of the chart shows a date in the past (say one year ago or 10 years ago), then you can click forward one day at a time (or one week at a time if using weekly charts). With your indicators on the chart you can do virtual trades to buy or sell whenever a signal is given as you move forward in time. This way you may be able to check years of data in a day to see if your strategy works. Whatever you do, you need to document your strategies in writing in a written trading or investment plan together with a risk management strategy. You should always follow the rules in your written plan to avoid you making decisions based on emotions. By backtesting or paper trading your strategies it will give you confidence that they will work over the long term.  There is a lot of work involved at the start, but once you have developed a documented strategy that has been thoroughly backtested, it will take you minimal time to successfully manage your investments. In my shorter term trading (positions held from a couple of days to a few weeks) I spend about half an hour per night to manage my trades and am up about 50% over the last 7 months. For my longer term investing (positions held from months to years) I spend about an hour per week and have been averaging over 25% over the last 4 years. Technical Analysis does work for those who have a documented plan, have approached it in a systematic way and use risk management to protect their existing and future capital. Most people who say that is doesn't work either have not used it themselves or have used it ad-hock without putting in the initial time and work to develop a documented and systematic approach to their trading or investing. What people don't realize is that in many EU countries, you pay a per minute fee (even when on hold) when you call a support line.  Your printer broke and you need to call in for a warranty repair?  That will be 15 cents a minute.  They usually cap the maximum charge but it's often not free to call.  In The Netherlands, it's almost never free.    Also, when you buy something and it breaks under warranty, you generally can't return it to a store and they give you a new one.  Instead they ship it out for repairs.  I bought a new coffee machine in Germany for 80 euros.  It broke 3 days later and when I brought it back, they shipped it out for repairs and I had no coffee machine for a week. "Sorry in advance, but this will be long.  Also, it sounds like your friend is a tool. I hope this ""friend"" is not also your financial advisor... they would be encouraging you to make a very poor investment decision. They also don't know how to do financial math.  For what it's worth, I am not wrong. I have correctly answered a set of changing questions as you have asked them... Your friend is answering based on a third, completely different investment model, which you proposed in the edit to your last post. If that's what you meant all along, then you should have been more clear in the questions you were asking.  Please let me layout the following: How the previous questions//investment proposals were built How to analyze this current proposal What your other option is Why the other option is best in a 'real world' market The First Question My understanding of the initial proposal was to take out a $10,000 loan, invest the proceeds, and expect to not have any money of your own tied up in this. Because that OP did not specify that this is an interest-only loan (you still haven't in any of your questions), the bank will require you to make payments back to them each month that include principal and interest.  Your ""friend"" is talking about the total interest paid being the only cost of a loan. While that is (almost) true, regardless of what your friend says, significantly more cash is involved in making sure that all the payments are made on time---unless you set up an interest-only loan. But with the set up laid out in this post, and with the assumptions I specified there, the principal payments must be included because the borrower has to pay back the bank and isn't not tying up any of their own money.  In that case, my initial analysis is correct--your breakeven is in the low teens for an annual required return.  The Second Proposal Your second proposal... before any edits... refined things a little bit, to try to capture the any possible returns by not selling something. As I indicated there, (with what was an exaggerating assumption), the lack of clarity makes for an outlandish required return.  The Second Proposal...with edits, or the one proposed above I will get to the one proposed above in a second, but first let me highlight a few problems with your friend's analysis.  Simple interest: the only place (in the US at least) that will lend with simple interest is student loans. Any loan that you actually take out will be compound interest.  Not an interest only loan: your ""friend"" is not calculating interest correctly. Since this isn't an interest-only loan, the principal balance will reduce every time you make a payment, by ~$320-$340 each month. This substantially reduces the total interest paid, to $272.79 over the total 24 months.  ""Returns"": I don't know what country, or what business your friend works in, but ""returns"" are a very ambiguous concept. Investopedia defines returns as gains or losses. (I wish I could inhabit the lala land that your friend lives in when returns are always positive). TheFreeDictionary.com defines a return for finance as ""The change in the value of a portfolio over an evaluation period, including any distributions made from the portfolio during that period.""  When you have not made it clear that any other money is being used in this investment plan (as was the case in scheme #1 and scheme #2a,) the loan still has to be paid. So, clearly the principal must be included in the return calculations.  How to evaluate this proposed investment scheme Key dimensions: Loan ($8,000 ... 24 months ... 0.27% monthly rate... monthly compounding... no loan origination fees) Monthly payment (PMT in Excel yields $344.70). Investment capital (starting = $8,000) Monthly Return (Investment yields... we hope it's positive!)  Your monthly contribution from your salary Taxes = 10%. Transaction Fees = $20  Go and lookup how to build an amortization table for a loan in Excel. Your life will be infinitely better for it.  Now, you get this loan set up and invested into something... (it costs $20 to buy the assets).  So you've got $7980 chugging away earning interest. I calculate that your break even, with you paying in $344.70 of your own money each month is 1.81% annually, or 3.42% over the 24 month life of this scheme. That is using monthly compound interest for the payments, because that's what the real world would use, and using monthly compounding of the investments' returns.  Your total interest expense would be $272.79.  This seems feasible. But let's talk about what your other option is, given that you're ready to spend $344.70 each month on an investment.  Your other option  I understand the appeal of getting $8,000... right away... to invest in something. But the risk behind this is that if the market goes down (and markets do) you're stuck paying a fixed amount for your loan that is now worth less money.  Your other option is to take your $344.70, and invest it step-by-step. (You would want to skip a month or two buying assets in the market, so that you can lessen transaction costs). This has two advantages: (1) you save yourself $272 in interest. (2) When the market goes down, you still win.  With this strategy, you still win when the market goes down because of what is commonly called ""dollar cost averaging"". When the market is up, your investments are also up. When the market goes down, your previous investments decrease in value but you can invest new money at the lower rates.  Why the step-by-step, invest your own money strategy is better At low rates (when you're looking for your break-even), the step-by-step model outperforms the loan. At higher rates of return (~4% + per year), you get the benefit of having the borrowed money earning more gains.  In fact, for every continuous (meaning set... not changing month-to-month) interest rate that you can dream up that is greater than about 4% per year, the borrowed money earns more.  At 10% per year, the borrowed money will earn about $500 more over the 2 years than your step by step investment would.  BUT I recognize that you might feel like the market will always go up. That's what everyone thinks. And that's alright.  But have one really bad month, or a couple of just-not-great-months, and your fixed 'loan' portfolio will underperform. Have a few really bad months, and your portfolio could be substantially reduced in value... but you would still be paying the same amount for it each month.  And if that happened (say your assets declined -3% in 3 of the 24 months...) You'd be losing money relative to the step-by-step portfolio." "In general, moving averages never seemed that much better for drawing trends, just removing volatility. However, in this case, they do seem more relevant because the moving averages seem to at least remove the noise of many of the other ""revisions.""  Comparing the intial numbers to the previous weeks' revised figures is hardly an apples-to-apples comparison, because there is more data available on the previous weeks' figures." "IMO: If you look long and hard enough at your data you're going to bump into these kinds of ""patterns"". There is no ""curse of 7"".  “Looking at the chart makes you want to hide under your desk when you see it, but remember this is only a sample size of 11, and the average performance is greatly skewed by big drops late in 1907, 1937, 1957, and 1987. Also, consider that 1907, 1937, and 1957 were all recessionary years, and equities had run up 40% for the year in August 1987, so a pullback was not surprising."" [Quote](https://lplresearch.com/2017/08/11/the-curse-of-years-ending-in-7/)" It's difficult to tell.  It was estimated that when putting on QE ... it brought yields on those instruments down by approximately 50bp.  When unwinding in a period of moderate growth one might expect that to (partially) reverse.  It will depend on the rate of the unwinding as well as economic growth (the more growth ... the less effect the unwinding will have; if the unwinding outpaces growth, the stronger it will push the curve). Fair enough. Many different programs to collect forecasts from various populations have been done, and are in fact still currently being run, so I have no info as to how or why what you're doing is any different. This kills a lot of my interest.  My gut feeling is this is some soft social science / liberal arts approach to forecasting. Given no evidence otherwise I'm not really interested but good luck I guess.