What will be the long term impact of the newly defined minimum exchange rate target from francs to euro?
The total size of the eurozone economy is $13 trillion, whereas Switzerland'd GDP is about $0.5 trillion, so the eurozone is about 26 times larger.  As such, I would not expect this move to have a large effect on the eurozone economy.  On the margins, this may decrease somewhat eurozone exports to Switzerland and increase imports from Switzerland, so this would be a slight negative for eurozone growth.  Switzerland accounts for 5.2% of the EU's imports, and these imports will now be slightly cheaper, which puts some deflationary pressure on the EU, particularly in the Swiss-specialized industries of chemicals, medicinal products, machinery, instruments and time pieces.  But overall, 5.2% is a rather small proportion. Bottom line, most common eurozone countries' people should probably not fret too much about this announcement. What it means for Switzerland and Swiss citizens, however, is a totally different (and much more interesting) question. The idea behind this move is to avoid or mitigate long-term deflationary pressure and to boost the competitiveness of Swiss exporters. This is primarily a Swiss-based initiative that does not appear likely to have a major impact on the broader Eurozone. However, some pressure will be felt by other currencies as investors look to purchase - ie. this is not a great scenario for other countries wanting to keep their currencies weak. In terms of personal wealth - if you hold Swiss f then you are impacted. However, 1.2 is still very strong (most analysts cite 1.3 as more realistic) so there seems little need for a reaction of any kind at the personal level at this time, although diversity - as ever - is good. It should also be noted that changing the peg is a possibility, and that the 1.3 does seem to be the more realistic level. If you hold large amounts of Swiss f then this might cause you to look at your forex holdings. For the man in the street, probably not an issue. The Swiss franc has appreciated quite a bit recently against the Euro as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to print money to buy government bonds issues by Greek, Portugal, Spain and now Italy.  Some euro holders have flocked to the Swiss franc in an effort to preserve the savings from the massive Euro money printing.  This has increased the value of the Swiss franc.  In response, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has tried to intervene multiple times in the currency market to keep the value of the Swiss franc low.  It does this by printing Swiss francs and using the newly printed francs to buy Euros.  The SNB interventions have failed to suppress the Swiss franc and its value has continued to rise.  The SNB has finally said they will print whatever it takes to maintain a desired peg to the Euro.  This had the desired effect of driving down the value of the franc. Which effect will this have long term for the euro zone? It is now clear that all major central bankers are in a currency devaluation war in which they are all trying to outprint each other.  The SNB was the last central bank to join the printing party.  I think this will lead to major inflation in all currencies as we have not seen the end of money printing.  Will this worsen the European financial crisis or is this not an important factor? I'm not sure this will have much affect on the ongoing European crisis since most of the European government debt is in euros. Should this announcement trigger any actions from common European people concerning their wealth? If a European is concerned with preserving their wealth I would think they would begin to start diverting some of their savings into a harder currency.  Europeans have experienced rapidly depreciating currencies more than people on any other continent.  I would think they would be the most experienced at preserving wealth from central bank shenanigans.
Before starting with investing, you should make sure you are saving enough.  Living in a welfare country (France) does not exempt you from potentially needing to save large amounts of money. You state that you do not need much of an emergency day fund, but this is not true.  Being dismissed unjustly from your job is not the only way to become unemployed and not all roads lead to unemployment pay.  Being fired for cause or leaving your job voluntarily are two work related causes that will leave you without an income source.  Unexpected major expenses are another reason you might need to dip into your emergency fund. If your emergency fund is in order, the next thing to investigate is your pension and saving for retirement.  In a country with a strong pension system, you need to check how comfortable you are with its sustainability (Greece anyone?) and also whether it will adequately meet your needs.  If not, there are no 401ks or IRAs in France, but there is a relatively new personal supplementary pension plan (PERP) that you might investigate contributing to. If you're comfortable with your emergency fund and your retirement savings, then preparing for buying a house is likely your next savings goal.  A quick search shows that to get a mortgage to buy a house in France, banks will commonly require a downpayment of 20% plus various closing costs.  See for example here.  This is 40,000+ euro for a 200k euro house, which will take you several years at the rate of 500 euro / month.  France has special plans (Plan d’Epargne Logement) with tax-exempt interest for saving up for a house that you might want to investigate. In your other question, you also ask about buying a cheap car.  As you get older and possibly start a family, having a car will likely become more of a necessity.  This is another goal you can save for rather than having to take a loan out when you buy one. "Great question!  A Yield Curve is a plot of the yields for different maturities of debt. This can be for any debt, but the most common used when discussing yield curves is the debt of the Federal Government. The yield curve is observed by its slope.  A curve with a positive slope (up and to the right) or a steepening curve, i.e. one that's becoming more positively sloped or less negatively sloped, may indicate several different situations. The Kansas City Federal Reserve has a nice paper that summarizes various economic theories about the yield curve, and even though it's a bit dated, the theories are still valid. I'll summarize the major points here. A positively sloped yield curve can indicate expectations of inflation in the future. The longer a security has before it matures, the more opportunities it has to be affected by changes in inflation, so if investors expect inflation to occur in the future, they may demand higher yields on longer-term securities to compensate them for the additional inflationary risk. A steepening yield curve may indicate that investors are increasing their expectations of future inflation. A positively sloped yield curve may also reflect expectations of deprecation in the dollar. The publication linked before states that depreciation of the dollar may have increased the perceived risk of future exchange rate changes and discouraged purchases of long-term Treasury securities by Japanese and other foreign investors, forcing the yields on these securities higher. Supply shocks, e.g. decreases in oil prices that lead to decreased production, may cause the yield curve to steepen because they affect short-term inflation expectations significantly more than long-term inflation. For example, a decrease in oil prices may decrease short-term inflation expectations, so short-term nominal interest rates decline. Investors usually assume that long-term inflation is governed more by fundamental macroeconomic factors than short-term factors like commodity price swings, so this price shock may lead short-term yields to decrease but leave long-term relatively unaffected, thus steepening the yield curve. Even if inflation expectations remain unchanged, the yield curve can still change. The supply of and demand for money affects the ""required real rate,"" i.e. the price of credit, loans, etc. The supply comes from private savings, money coming from abroad, and growth in the money supply, while demand comes from private investors and the government. The paper summarizes the effects on real rates by saying Lower private saving, declines in the real money supply, and reduced capital inflows decrease the supply of funds and raise the required real rate. A larger government deficit and stronger private investment raise the required real rate by increasing the demand for funds. The upward pressure on future real interest rates contributes to the yield curve's positive slope, and a steepening yield curve could indicate an increasing government deficit, declines in private savings, or reduced capital coming in from abroad (for example, because of a recession in Europe that reduces their demand for US imports). an easing of monetary policy when is economy is already producing near its capacity ... would initially expand the real money supply, lowering required short-term real interest rates. With long-term real interest rates unchanged, the yield curve would steepen. Lower interest rates in turn would stimulate domestic spending, putting upward pressure on prices. This upward price pressure would probably increase expected inflation, and as the first bullet point describes, this can cause long-term nominal interest rates to rise. The combination of the decline in short-term rates and the rise in long-term rates steepens the yield curve.  Similarly, an inverted yield curve or a positively sloped yield curve that is becoming less steep may indicate the reverse of some or all of the above situations. For example, a rise in oil prices may increase expectations of short-term inflation, so investors demand higher interest rates on short-term debt. Because long-term inflation expectations are governed more by fundamental macroeconomic factors than short-term swings in commodity prices, long-term expectations may not rise nearly as much as short term expectations, which leads to a yield curve that is becoming less steep or even negatively sloped. Forecasting based on the curve slope is not an exact science, just one of many indicators used.  Note - Yield Curve was not yet defined here and was key to my answer for What is the ""Bernanke Twist"" and ""Operation Twist""? What exactly does it do? So I took the liberty of ask/answer." "As a former consumer credit counselor, who worked with struggling homeowners and first time homebuyers I would argue that it is a mistake for lenders to rely on gross income and assumptions on what an applicant spends their income on. I think lenders do this because they believe it is efficient and may not understand the long term ramifications for the stakeholders, e.g. the borrower, the lender, the servicer, the investor, the broker, the taxpayer, the marshall, the foreclosure lawyers etc. Or lenders do know the impact of a superficial mortgage screening, and intentionally want to enrich themselves in the short term while harming other stakeholders in the long term. Developing a budget that reflects what a person can realistically spend on their mortgage takes much longer than signing up for a Rocket mortgage. I would say an hour minimum for the first appointment to get a baseline, and at least two follow up appointments to make adustments soon after or whenever a borrower's financial situation changes dramatically. Credit counselors factor in all of the factors mentioned above, i.e. take home pay, future pay vs current pay, the ability to adjust deductions, seasonal expenses, multiple sources of income and their frequency, debt load etc. Budgets are always fluctuating, but when it is done right by a qualified professional the result is a much more accurate financial picture.  The consequences for not doing this type of old-school due diligence, or for willfully choosing to skip it, are varied. First off, mortgages will be given to homeowners who should never have qualified in the first place, and likewise denied to homeowners who should qualify. This will result in market distortion and this distortion was a primary contributor to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the wave of foreclosures that came with it. Another consequence is the stripping of wealth from minority communities since they are often targeted by the most unscrupulous of lenders. Additionally, the securitization of mortgages based on poor diligence at the loan officer level means loan portfolio ratings are questionable, investors will lose money, and small banks who are heavily invested will fail as they did in the past. Depending on the federal enforcement of Dodd Frank Act, the taxpayers may or may not have to pick up the bill from a bailout of a big mortgage bank that was ""too big to fail,"" via higher taxes, lost jobs, lost homes, and other negative externalities that were not accounted for by the loan officer, or willfully ignored.  Lastly, borrowers also have a responsibility to provide accurate financial information, which they don't always do. Unfortunately, in a capitalistic society where property is commoditized instead of communal, there is always mistrust, competition, the fear that you will be left behind, or the desire to get ahead. This could incentivize cheating by either the, borrower, the broker/lender, or both in this example e.g. no-doc negative amatorizing loans. This is just one of many other negative externalities. So the only true fix would be a switch to communal land ownership. In the interim, I would push for universal borrower access to low cost consumer credit counselors and a change in loan officer training and incentive structure." "What are you trying to do Exactly?  What is a covariance ""profile""? (Cov Matrix)?   Also lose the jargon.  From my understanding you want the same covariance in the portfolio, however it doesn't work like that as covariance is an observed matrix. It's hard enough to target variance in a portfolio (see GMV) and to target covariance would be even more difficult. You can attempt to use the weights you have right now in terms of exposures, but LEAPS may give you unwanted theta.   Are you long short or long only? if you're long only the interplay between the positions is rather irrelevent, as right now all that matters are the weights." Forex is really not that volatile compared to other major asset classes like stocks and commodities. But still markets are generally unencumbered in the major pairs and therefore spikes in volatility can happen. Take what happened with the Swiss Franc a few years ago for example, or GBPUSD recently with news of Brexit. This is less the case with highly regulated currencies like the Chinese Yuan (CNY) Volatility is caused by excessive buy or sell pressure in relation to the available liquidity at the current price. This is usually caused by large buy or sell orders placed with interbank desks by institutions (often including other banks) and central banks. News can also sometimes have a dramatic impact and cause traders to adjust their prices significantly and very quickly. Is it possible that the result could be a reduced-size Eurozone, with Germany, France, Austria, BeNeLux and Finland remaining in, while others go back to their former currencies or form a Southern European (and Irish) common currency? "Yes, you're still exposed to currency risk when you purchase the stock on company B's exchange. I'm assuming you're buying the shares on B's stock exchange through an ADR, GDR, or similar instrument. The risk occurs as a result of the process through which the ADR is created. In its simplest form, the process works like this: I'll illustrate this with an example. I've separated the conversion rate into the exchange rate and a generic ""ADR conversion rate"" which includes all other factors the bank takes into account when deciding how many ADR shares to sell. The fact that the units line up is a nice check to make sure the calculation is logically correct. My example starts with these assumptions: I made up the generic ADR conversion rate; it will remain constant throughout this example. This is the simplified version of the calculation of the ADR share price from the European share price:  Let's assume that the euro appreciates against the US dollar, and is now worth 1.4 USD (this is a major appreciation, but it makes a good example):  The currency appreciation alone raised the share price of the ADR, even though the price of the share on the European exchange was unchanged. Now let's look at what happens if the euro appreciates further to 1.5 USD/EUR, but the company's share price on the European exchange falls:  Even though the euro appreciated, the decline in the share price on the European exchange offset the currency risk in this case, leaving the ADR's share price on the US exchange unchanged. Finally, what happens if the euro experiences a major depreciation and the company's share price decreases significantly in the European market? This is a realistic situation that has occurred several times during the European sovereign debt crisis.   Assuming this occurred immediately after the first example, European shareholders in the company experienced a (43.50 - 50) / 50 = -13% return, but American holders of the ADR experienced a (15.95 - 21.5093) / 21.5093 = -25.9% return. The currency shock was the primary cause of this magnified loss.  Another point to keep in mind is that the foreign company itself may be exposed to currency risk if it conducts a lot of business in market with different currencies. Ideally the company has hedged against this, but if you invest in a foreign company through an ADR (or a GDR or another similar instrument), you may take on whatever risk the company hasn't hedged in addition to the currency risk that's present in the ADR/GDR conversion process. Here are a few articles that discuss currency risk specifically in the context of ADR's: (1), (2). Nestle, a Swiss company that is traded on US exchanges through an ADR, even addresses this issue in their FAQ for investors. There are other risks associated with instruments like ADR's and cross-listed companies, but normally arbitrageurs will remove these discontinuities quickly. Especially for cross-listed companies, this should keep the prices of highly liquid securities relatively synchronized." I suspect that the times you are referring to are those times when there is relatively low volumes of foreign exchange trading.  Lower volumes of trading make it possible for large orders to have a disproportionate effect on the market price.  This implies that the times to avoid will be the times with the lowest relative volumes.  This will occur on the cusp between the New York market winding down and the Asia/Tokyo market revving up. This will be in the hours preceding Tokyo's opening at 06:00 Tokyo time, so the time to avoid is about 04:00-06:00 Tokyo time, or about 20:00-22:00 GMT (if I've worked out the time difference correctly). Foreign exchange is a 24 hour, global market.  Although each of the three main trading centres - London, New York, Asia - will operate 24 hours a day, they will maintain only a skeleton staff outside of normal working hours.  The time difference between London and New York is only 5 hours, so there is no period of time when both centres are operating with a skeleton staff.  The time difference between London and Tokyo is 8 hours, so again there is no period of time when both centres are operating with a skeleton staff.  The time difference between New York and Tokyo is 13 hours.  This does include a period where both centres are operating with a skeleton staff, as well as London operating on a skeleton staff.  Thus, in the couple of hours immediately preceding Tokyo's opening for the regular trading day there is minimal coverage in each of the three main trading centres.  As mentioned above, this is the time when large orders can have a disproportionate effect on fx rates and so this is the time to avoid.