What ETF or other security tracks closest to 30 year mortgage rates?
"TBF - Proshares short 20+ Year Treasury  The TBF fund is designed to track (hopefully) 100 percent of the inverse daily returns of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.  there's some risk of tracking error, and also a compounding effect if it's down several days in a row.  (invest with care)   There's also a TBT fund, but the risks are even greater since it is leveraged,  potentially you could make the right long term call, but lose a lot in the short term due to tracking error and effect of compounding) (that would tend to make this one more appropriate for short term 'bets' on interest rates, and less so for a long term investor) There are also quite a few floating rate closed-end funds (Click here, then click on ""loan participation funds"") that should do well in a rising rate environment. Just beware that these funds seem to incorporate a substantial amount of credit risk as well as floating interest rate exposure. Closed end funds trade a lot like securities, since the fund is closed, you have to buy shares from another owner that is selling (just like with stocks), that means the shares can sometimes trade above or below the underlying value of the actual assets held by the fund depending on buying/selling pressure and the relative liquidity of a given fund." Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-Note, TNX, is a security directly related to this rate. Divide the CBOE price of TNX by 10 to get the yield.  One can also track the  10Y T-Note yield at yahoo finance using ticker symbol (^TNX).   One can also track the  10Y T-Note yield at yahoo finance using ticker symbol (^TNX).
I just graduated from college and I am already planning my retirement.   ... in terms of money sitting in my bank account post retirement, assuming Ii have   $250,000 what is the highest interest that I can earn with it?  Assuming you are 22, and will retire in 45 years at age 67. There is no way to predict interest rates. When I was 22 and just out of college I started putting money into a bank account to save for a down payment. The rate for a savings account was 6%. That means that every month I made 1/2 of one percent. Today that same credit union offers a money maker account with a minimum balance of $100,000 that pays 0.25% for the year. What I made in a month would take two years to make today. Keep in mind we also can't estimate your pay in the last year before retirement, or the inflation rate for the next 45 years, or the mortgage rate, or the availability of Social Security, or the returns of the S&P for 45 years. It is great you are starting to think about this today. But you will have to keep adjusting parts of your plan as the years go by: You may have to factor in children, your medical situation...  Even if the interest rates recover you may not want to put all your post retirement money in the bank. Most people can't sustain the required flow of money for their 30 years of retirement from savings accounts.  As for today. FDIC (or similar accounts from credit unions) will not have rates approaching 3%. It can't even approach that 3% rate via multi-year CDs. My credit union has a 6 year CD for almost 2%. If the goal of the money is safety then don't expect to find those high rates now. Some institutions may offer high rates without that FDIC protection, but that is risky. You are expecting, that if you pay off a 30 mortgage after 16 years, you should be charged the same amount of interest as someone who had a 16 year mortgage for the same amount and with the same interest rate. This isn't correct, and here's why: the person with the 16 year mortgage paid it off faster than you. They paid more each month and the size of their loan shrunk faster than yours. After 15 years they had paid off a LOT more than you. You paid a lump sum after 16 years, but at this point, the extra money which they had paid had been in the banks hands for a long time. You caught up with them then, but you had been behind them for all of the previous years. On the other hand, you owed the same amount in each of those years as the person who took out a 30 year mortgage and didn't prepay. Therefore you paid the same amount of interest as this person, not the first person. If you could arrange in advance a loan where you made the same payment as you did for 16 years, then paid the balance in a lump sum, then you would have paid exactly what you did. &gt;Umm actually asking to be refinanced at a lower rate IS asking them to forgive/give up part of the mortgage.   Either my knowledge of finance is wrong or how interest rates work is wrong if that statement is true.   Here is why your statement is not true:  * The interest rate is money the bank makes on the loan.   For example, say you buy a home valued at $250,000, put 10% down and your interest rate is 5% for 30 years.   Well now you've got a mortgage ($225,000) that you pay $1,207.85 monthly. Now expand this out to 30 years, which means you'll make 360 payments for a total balance of $434,825.5. So even though you have a mortgage of $225,000 and your home is only valued at $250,000 due to the interest rate on that loan, you will  be giving the bank $209,825.5 in profit for that $225,000 loan.   Refinancing the loan at a lower rate is not debt forgiveness or a write off.   &gt;Peoples greed in getting themselves into upside down mortgages are why we have problems, not the banks not helping them out enough.  Actually it's the bank's greed which is wanting to keep the homeowner at the higher interest rate because it will make them more money over the long run. If the bank was to reduce the interest rate on the loan, they would be reducing their potential profits.   And now you know why I support non profit banks. If the interest rate in both mortgages is the same, then yes, you will end up paying the same amount in interest if both are paid off in 15 years. However, in practice, almost always a 15-year mortgage will have a much lower interest rate that a 30-year mortgage. Also, if you are thinking of taking out a 30-year mortgage with the intention of paying it off early, make sure it does not have an early payment penalty; this is a penalty the bank will charge you if you pay back the loan early. "The iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond - ticker AGG, is a ETF that may fit the bill for you. It's an intermediate term fund with annual expenses of .20%. It ""seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index""" It depends on the relative rates and relative risk. Ignore the deduction. You want to compare the rates of the investment and the mortgage, either both after-tax or both before-tax. Your mortgage costs you 5% (a bit less after-tax), and prepayments effectively yield a guaranteed 5% return. If you can earn more than that in your IRA with a risk-free investment, invest. If you can earn more than that in your IRA while taking on a degree of risk that you are comfortable with, invest. If not, pay down your mortgage. See this article: Mortgage Prepayment as Investment: For example, the borrower with a 6% mortgage who has excess cash flow would do well to use it to pay down the mortgage balance if the alternative is investment in assets that yield 2%. But if two years down the road the same assets yield 7%, the borrower can stop allocating excess cash flow to the mortgage and start accumulating financial assets. Note that he's not comparing the relative risk of the investments. Paying down your mortgage has a guaranteed return. You're talking about CDs, which are low risk, so your comparison is simple. If your alternative investment is stocks, then there's an element of risk that it won't earn enough to outpace the mortgage cost. Update: hopefully this example makes it clearer: For example, lets compare investing $100,000 in repayment of a 6% mortgage with investing it in a fund that pays 5% before-tax, and taxes are deferred for 10 years. For the mortgage, we enter 10 years for the period, 3.6% (if that is the applicable rate) for the after tax return, $100,000 as the present value, and we obtain a future value of $142,429. For the alternative investment, we do the same except we enter 5% as the return, and we get a future value of $162,889. However, taxes are now due on the $62,889 of interest, which reduces the future value to $137,734. The mortgage repayment does a little better. So if your marginal tax rate is 30%, you have $10k extra cash to do something with right now, mortgage rate is 5%, IRA CD APY is 1%, and assuming retirement in 30 years: If you want to plug it into a spreadsheet, the formula to use is (substitute your own values): (Note the minus sign before the cash amount.) Make sure you use after tax rates for both so that you're comparing apples to apples. Then multiply your IRA amount by (1-taxrate) to get the value after you pay future taxes on IRA withdrawals. Risk. A shorter-term mortgage is less risky than a long-term mortgage - in this case there's half the chance of something bad happening because there's half the time allotted (15 vs 30 years). Bad things include you going bankrupt, massive inflation, or your home being destroyed in a meteor impact that your insurer won't cover. They entice consumers to these less risky mortgages by offering a lower interest rate. It would help if we had numbers to walk you through the analysis. Current balance, rate, remaining term, and the new mortgage details.  To echo and elaborate on part of Ben's response, the most important thing is to not confuse cash flow with savings. If you have 15 years to go, and refinance to 30 years, at the rate rate, your payment drops by 1/3. Yet your rate is identical in this example.  The correct method is to take the new rate, plug it into a mortgage calculator or spreadsheet using the remaining months on the current mortgage, and see the change in payment. This savings is what you should divide into closing costs to calculate the breakeven. It's up to you whether to adjust your payments to keep the term the same after you close.  With respect to keshlam, rules of thumb often fail. There are mortgages that build the closing costs into the rate. Not the amount loaned, the rate. This means that as rates dropped, moving from 5.25% to 5% made sense even though with closing costs there were 4.5% mortgages out there. Because rates were still falling, and I finally moved to a 3.5% loan. At the time I was serial refinancing, the bank said I could return to them after a year if rates were still lower. In my opinion, we are at a bottom, and the biggest question you need to answer is whether you'll remain in the house past your own breakeven time. Last - with personal finance focusing on personal, the analysis shouldn't ignore the rest of your balance sheet. Say you are paying $1500/mo with 15 years to go. Your budget is tight enough that you've chosen not to deposit to your 401(k). (assuming you are in the US or country with pretax retirement account options) In this case, holding rates constant, a shift to 30 years frees up about $500/mo. In a matched 401(k), your $6000/yr is doubled to $12K/year.  Of course, if the money would just go in the market unmatched, members here would correctly admonish me for suggesting a dangerous game, in effect borrowing via mortgage to invest in the market. The matched funds, however are tough to argue against.