How credible is Stansberry's video “End of America”?
"I listened to about 15 minutes of the video, but then I read your other link, which gives a much better summary. This guy is an idiot. Just consider this statement: ""If everyone was taxed at 100%, it wouldn't be enough to balance the federal budget."" This is true to some extent. It wouldn't be enough to balance the federal budget in one year. Experts often cite things like debt to GDP to show that a country's debt is ballooning, but they don't mention this obvious fact: We don't have to pay off our debts in a single year. Nobody does. Debt to GDP is a ratio and not the end all be all. Reinhart & Rogoff wrote a paper about how countries with high debt to GDP tend to have slower economic growth, but they don't mention that this occurs at every stage of debt growth. See Debt & Delusion by Dr. Robert Shiller for a great article on this subject. The daily kos article goes over most of the points I would make, but let me generalize a little: Always be wary of doomsday-predictors and free advice. This guy talks about correctly calling Fannie and Freddie. Even if he's right, why is he mentioning it? If he's such a good accountant and financial expert, surely he could've seen the tech bubble before the housing bubble right? It took a lot of analysis to figure out that CDO's were junk - anybody with the ability to read a balance sheet could see that many tech companies were overvalued. Every now and then, you get one hit wonders. They might never be right again, but they have the ""credentials."" If these people were really that good, they wouldn't be selling investment newsletters. They'd be applying their strategies and getting rich. Buffett has been getting rich for over 50 years, and he's not publishing newsletters with ""secret, genius"" strategies. He's made it pretty clear what his philosophy is, and anyone who follows it patiently will make money. Stransberry's argument only makes sense if you agree with the assumptions. The US will implode if nobody accepts our money. Nobody will accept our money if we're no longer the reserve currency or hyperinflation occurs or something like that. People have been predicting doom after every bubble, but that doesn't make it true. Some of his points (like the fact that we have too much debt) are valid, and I predict that the world will go into a period of deleveraging now. Nonetheless, the whole ""we will implode"" story is a scary picture, but it's just that - a picture." If we postulate that there is at least some element of truth to the phrase 'A leopard does not change his spots'  and then consider this tidbit He conveniently forgets to mention his 1.5 million dollar fraud fine   from the SEC over investment “advice” he sold through a news letter.   The SEC claimed and the judge agreed that the report was “replete with   lies”. I think that gives you just about all you might need to know regarding the man behind the video, and the nature of it's content.  Oh, and it's purpose?  To SELL YOU the same said newsletter. I guess it's natural for Stansberry to feel as he does. After all if the US gov had just busted me for conning and lying to folks, and fined ME 1.5Mill, I'd be having some pretty intense lurid fantasies about it going down in flames, and trying to hide any money I had left offshore also.   A huge amount of his argument hinges on the US no longer being the world's reserve currency.  Firstly, while I'll admit I'm none too happy with the way the national debt has been managed for oh, around 30 years how, (which includes I will note going from a pretty much balanced budget, to around an 80% increase in the debt from 2001 through 2008, when 'times were good' and there was little need to spend money we didn't have), when compared to a lot of other countries, we still don't look that bad.  You have to ask yourself this first, if not the US, then WHO?  are the governments of the world going to trust China? could the Yen handle the load?  Is the Euro any better off especially considering problems in Greece, Ireland, etc.  Do countries like Switzerland have enough liquidity and available ways to invest there?  In order for the US to STOP being the world's reserve currency, you must have something to replace it with, and really, can we realistically think of one country/currency with the capability to become a new 'world reserve currency'???  Secondly, even then should such a shift actually happen, it doesn't mean people will ALL just magically stop buying US debt.  Yes the demand would go down, but it would not go to zero.  There are after all a worldfull of other countries who's money is right now NOT the world reserve currency, and yet they are able to sell bonds and people and even other countries invest there. (China for example does not invest exclusively in the US), so yeah we might have to start paying more interest to get people to buy US debt, but it's not like the demand will go away.   Save your money, save your time, don't buy into this dung. "No. I glanced through the article you linked to.  It's quite lengthy, but not compelling. I'd not lose any sleep over this.  Others with far better credentials are making the opposite claim, that life is good and the Dow on its way to 20,000.   Back to this guy - StansberryResearch.com Reviews – Legit or Scam? offers a look at this company. Stansberry calls his company ""one of the largest and most recognized investment research companies in the world"" but references to his firm call it a clearinghouse for other authors newsletters.  Why would you give any more credence to his ranting than any other extreme prognostications?  I suppose if I told you I never heard of him it would be pretty meaningless. I certainly haven't heard of every financial writer. But if he's one of the most recognized, you'd think I might have. Note, I've edited since seeing I was downvoted. But to the question author, you might want to summarize your questions in the future instead of linking to a video or  13,000 word rant. (when you click to shut the video, the text is available.)" "I know nothing about the guy, but I think the ""premium"" products (Penny stock recommendations, a newsletter devoted to earning 12% per year, every year, etc) sold by his firm speak for themselves." "Others have covered this pretty well, but as someone who once worked for the company that allows Stansberry to publish, let me confirm that their business is about getting you to buy into the financial worldview they promote so that they can sell you more and more ""newsletters"" and ""services"". Nothing else. It's a marketing company, and Stansberry is nothing more than a copywriter." "Predictions, especially doomsday predictions, can go wrong quickly.  I would be careful of anyone calling an ""end"" to a country like the U.S., especially, if they have something to gain and a history of being wrong.  On the other hand, someone warning of something with a past of financial credibility can be quite useful.  For instance, compare Frank Stansberry to Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble on Twitter).  Jesse was one of the few who predicted the financial crisis in 2004 and is currently warning of new bubbles (ie: the higher education bubble) - even admitting to profiting off of some of them and encouraging others to do the same.  However, his assertions can be investigated to verify accuracy, but they are hardly the end of the end (in fact, Jesse likes to boast that he's an optimist and thinks eventually we'll usher in a Golden Age).  Frank Stansberry, on the other hand, doesn't seem to carry the credibility; a brief internet search generated some issues he's had with the SEC about misleading investors. (Completely forgot to add, Mike Shedlock - Mish - also has made some predictions that have come true and clashed with some other financial advisers over inflation vs. deflation.  While people were screaming ""HYPER-INFLATION"" back in 2008-2009, Mish constantly attacked them for being wrong, and has continued to be right.  Some of his political views, of course, aren't popular, but some of his financial predictions have been stellar.) Anyone who warns of anything should always be checked out for both what they've said, what they are currently saying, and what their agenda is.  As one of my mentors warned me, everyone has an agenda and that's not always bad - their agenda may align with yours, just make sure it does. [On a humorous side note, my father has predicted the end of the world every six months since 1994.]"
&gt;lol wut? Vice is a media company, not a broadcasting company. HBO charges premium prices to access HBO not Vice.   False. You apparently don't know about their other channels.  &gt;[Vice Media LLC is a North American digital media and **broadcasting company**.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Media)  lol.  &gt;If you agree with me then why are you defending Vice here so much? Every article by them is shallow like this one and at that with a very noticeable liberal bias.   This comment thread literally started on me criticizing their graphics in this story. If you will recall, the point of contention you had with me is that I said that only some of their quality is dubious. You insisted all of it was. So, I pointed out that you don't seem like you're in the position to really know, since you clearly avoid their content. During this whole excursion in the discussion, I have repeatedly acknowledged their faults, culminating in criticizing the author's credibility. I'm hardly a Vice shill; I just see shades of grey where you see nothing but black.  &gt;How exactly is that a flaw in my logic? I've seen enough from Vice to know its content is crap so why would I bother to read it?  Because your sampling is very limited, it's an example of an informal logical fallacy called a sweeping generalization. There is also a framing/confirmation bias in your logic, because your analysis is subjective (i.e. Vice, the subject, is crap because I read a couple articles from the subject) versus my analysis which is objective (i.e. Vice can produce some good quality content, but objectively this content is not an example of it).  &gt;More like the reality is you are making a grand assumption here on my end. I'ved watched their documentaries that aired in the 90's, and read various articles and watch various Youtube video's from them. They use to do high quality work, but now its crap.   So, your claim to wide exposure is that you saw some documentaries made over 20 years ago, which were produced before they were acquired in 1999 and Co-founder Gavin McInnes was forced out over creative difference? Oh, and you've seen some YouTube videos, I didn't realize I was talking to such an expert. Much expert! Such impressed! Many experienced! Wowz! America has the highest corporate taxes in the world.  Moving your business out of the US is a smart decision that will likely end in benefits to the customer...IE lower prices.  But sure, if you want companies to stay in the US and customers to pay higher prices to compensate for those higher taxes... "Is that it?  You hardly put any effort into it . .  over the last week you have desensitized America and now you have to top talking smack to a war veteran widow to deliver Americas week end Cringe worthy Moment.  Come one . .lets get your blood flowing  The Iranian Ayatollah called you a ""Mental Retard"", thats Persian for ""Fucking Moron""   3...2...1  Your on!!" It is important for you to understand the calculus of the situation, while the Orange buffoon prances around in front of the world keeping people suitable entertained, a deeper and darker agenda is at play in the back ground.  It is not America first or the American people first, it is the Israeli agenda first and Israeli control of the US government and economy that is at play here, this is not a conspiracy or some tall tale, it is a simple statement of fact now and common knowledge.  Jokes aside, Nathanyahu is now permanently infesting Donald Trumps rectum and calling the shots.  The is only one way, Donald Trump can free himself of this infestation and free America and the American People from this Israeli Parasitic grip.  I am afraid you are going to have to go nuclear, you can have a nuclear bomb and still hug the trees and hump the whales . . .but if you don't have a nuclear bomb, it will not be too long before you become a terrorist state and are a threat to Israel's survival and must be wiped off the face of the earth.  You are never going to be part of the EU and always a second rate citizen in NATO and will end up going the way of Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Syria and Iran  Nuke up . . .Protect yourself Trump is the most compromised and easily-manipulated [incompetent] puppet the neoliberal Deep State could ask for. Turning every aspect of our lives into a for-profit scam on behalf of our beloved corporate cartels has been the wet dream of both Ayn Rand-loving Republican and Corporate Democrat neoliberals since the 1970's. Too bad for them, Trump is too dumb to see their vision through. "Where do these idiots come from?  and don't answer ""Russia"" because we've had our share of this kind of stupidity in America and London also.  The only people who have pulled off this sort of treachery are North Korea and China and that's only because of the way their national internet grids are structured, and requires a specific kind of tyrannical dictatorship which Russia, despite it's psychopathic ""president"", does not have." There is a great Kyle bass video that came out recently with the guy he is with saying that China has built something like 3 times the office space required to give every man woman and child their own cubicle.  When looked at that way it seems like the enormous building to keep gdp growth high can't be sustainable. "[Russians Blame The US For The Violence In Eastern Ukraine](http://www.reddit.com/r/worldpolitics/comments/2dvpku/russians_blame_the_us_for_the_violence_in_eastern/)  [Eric Kraus](http://topics.bloomberg.com/eric-kraus/) *Who e hell else can you blame? The Victoria Nuland tapes tell it all. It was a Washington set up, and with their signature diplomacy they will ""liberate"" that unfortunate country precisely as they did Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. Or, as they so notably put it 40 years ago while murdering 3 million Vietnamese - ""the village (country) had to be destroyed in order for it to be saved!""*"