Price movement behaviour before earnings announcements
This depends entirely on what the market guesses the news will be and how much of that guess has already been factored into the price. There is no general answer beyond that.  Note that this explains the apparently paradoxical responses where a stock good down on good news (the market expected better) or up on bad news (the market expected worse). In principle, the stock price should see no change in the days leading up to an earnings announcement, and then at the moment of the announcement, the stock price should move in the direction of the earnings surprise (relative to the market's belief of what earnings were going to be). In practice, stock prices tend to drift a little in the direction of the surprise shortly before the announcement and the associated price jump. This could be because smart investors were able to replicate the computations to predict the announcement or because information gets illegally leaked ahead of the announcement.  So I guess your bullet point B is a likely scenario. Note that hedging activity in the options market will not affect stock price one way or another.  Options transfer risk from one party to another but net to zero.  Intense hedging activity may be able to push up the price of options (increasing the implied volatility), but it shouldn't affect the price of a stock one way or the other. For this reason, bullet point A is not the case. Note that price behavior after the announcement is also interesting: it seems to take some time to reach the correct price instead of jumping directly to it as economists would predict.   This phenomenon is known as post earnings announcement drift.
It depends on the timing of the events. Sometimes the buying company announces their intention but the other company doesn't like the deal. It can go back and forth several times, before the deal is finalized. The specifics of the deal determine what happens to the stock: The deal will specify when the cutoff is. Some people want the cash, others want the shares.  Some will speculate once the initial offer is announced where the final offer (if there is one) will end up. This can cause a spike in volume, and the price could go up or down. Regarding this particular deal I did find the following: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/expedia-to-acquire-orbitz-worldwide-for-12-per-share-in-cash-300035187.html Additional Information and Where to Find It Orbitz intends to file with the SEC a proxy statement as well as other   relevant documents in connection with the proposed transaction with   Expedia. The definitive proxy statement will be sent or given to the   stockholders of Orbitz and will contain important information about   the proposed transaction and related matters. SECURITY HOLDERS ARE   URGED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT CAREFULLY WHEN IT BECOMES AVAILABLE   AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS FILED WITH THE SEC, AS WELL AS ANY   AMENDMENTS OR SUPPLEMENTS TO THOSE DOCUMENTS, BECAUSE THEY WILL   CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION. The proxy statement and other relevant   materials (when they become available), and any other documents filed   by Expedia or Orbitz with the SEC, may be obtained free of charge at   the SEC's website, at www.sec.gov. In addition, security holders will   be able to obtain free copies of the proxy statement from Orbitz by   contacting Investor Relations by mail at ATTN: Corporate Secretary,   Orbitz Worldwide, Inc., 500 W. Madison Street, Suite 1000, Chicago,   Illinois 60661. Simply if your stock is still rising in price keep it. If it is falling in price sell it and pay off your mortgage. To know when to do this is very easy. If it is currently rising you can put a trailing stop loss on it and sell it when it drops and hits your stop loss. A second easy method is to draw an uptrend line under the increasing price and then sell when the price drops down below the uptrend line, as per the chart below.  This will enable you to capture the bulk of the price movement upward and sell before the price drops too far down. You can then use the profits (after tax) to pay down your mortgage. Of course if the price is currently in a downtrend sell it ASAP. Upselling you is how they make money.  That's the price of the free content. Test their recommendations.  Pretend to buy the stocks they say.  How do they do?  Do they ever say to sell the stocks after their buy recommendations? There are lots and lots of opinions out there.  I doubt people really hear about the good ones because (a) the good ones have paid newsletters and/or (b) the good ones aren't telling a soul because they're absolutely cleaning it up. Warren Buffett doesn't announce his intentions.  He's been buying for a while before anyone finds out. "Simply put, yes. I bought that call. I was betting the shares would rise in value by Jan 2018, and chose the $130 strike. With a strike nearly a year away, I paid a premium that was all time value as the shares traded at   Now the shares are replaced by $128. The time value has gone to zero, and there is no intrinsic ""in the money"" value. If the shares were bought at $140, the time value stills drops to zero, but the option is closed at $10 in the money.  My answer was for a cash deal. In a case where the old shares are replaced by new shares or a combination of shares and money, the options terms are changed to reflect the combination of new assets for old.  Update based on disclosure that it's Monsanto we are discussing.   Bayer and Monsanto have announced that they signed a definitive   agreement under which Bayer will acquire Monsanto for USD 128 per   share in an all-cash transaction. Based on Monsanto’s closing share   price on May 9, 2016, the day before Bayer’s first written proposal to   Monsanto, the offer represents a premium of 44 percent to that price.  You can see that the deal has been in the works for some time now. Further research shows they expect the deal to close by ""the end of 2017"". It's not a done deal. This is why the options are still trading.   Now the shares are replaced by $128. The time value has gone to zero, and there is no intrinsic ""in the money"" value. If the shares were bought at $140, the time value stills drops to zero, but the option is closed at $10 in the money.  My answer was for a cash deal. In a case where the old shares are replaced by new shares or a combination of shares and money, the options terms are changed to reflect the combination of new assets for old.  Update based on disclosure that it's Monsanto we are discussing.  Bayer and Monsanto have announced that they signed a definitive   agreement under which Bayer will acquire Monsanto for USD 128 per   share in an all-cash transaction. Based on Monsanto’s closing share   price on May 9, 2016, the day before Bayer’s first written proposal to   Monsanto, the offer represents a premium of 44 percent to that price. You can see that the deal has been in the works for some time now. Further research shows they expect the deal to close by ""the end of 2017"". It's not a done deal. This is why the options are still trading." The portion of a stock movement not correlated with stocks in general is called Alpha. I don't know of any online tools to graph alpha. Keep in mind that a company like Apple is so huge right now that any properly weighted index will have to correlate with it to some degree. Who's to say it wasn't priced into the markets, at least to some degree? Without any information on the behaviour of holders pre-expiry, no one can know if they've been shorting the stock in advance of selling on expiry day. And with the float being such a small proportion of the total issuance, there's always the risk of sudden fluctuations picking up big momentum - which could easily explain the 7% drop on expiry day. Add into all this uncertainty, the usual risks of shorting (e.g. limited upside, unlimited downside), and the observed phenomena aren't by any means killer blows of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. That's not to say that such evidence doesn't necessarily exist - just that this isn't it. If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis then the stock price reflects the information known to market participants. Consequently, if the 'market' expected earnings to rise, and they did, then the price won't change. Clearly there are circumstances, especially in the short term and for illiquid stocks, where this isn't true, but a lot of work points to this being the case on average. "I can't speak authoritatively to your broader question about stocks in general, but in several years tracking AAPL closely, I can tell you that there's little apparent pattern to when their earnings call will be, or when it will be announced. What little I do know:  - AAPL's calls tend to occur on a Tuesday more than any other day of the week  - it's announced roughly a month in advance, but has been announced w/ less notice  - it has a definite range of dates in which it occurs, typically somewhere in the 3rd week of the new quarter plus or minus a few days More broadly for #1: Given the underlying nature of what an option is, then yes, the day an earnings call date is announced could certainly influence the IV/price of options - but only for options that expire inside the ""grey area"" (~2 weeks long) window in which the call could potentially occur.  Options expiring outside that grey area should experience little to no price change in reaction to the announcement of the date - unless the date was itself surprising, e.g. an earlier date would increase the premium on earlier dated options, a later date would increase the premium for later-dated options. As for #2: The exact date will probably always be a mystery, but the main factors are:  - the historical pattern of earnings call dates (and announcements of those dates) which you can look up for any given company  - when the company's quarter ends  - potentially some influence in how long it takes the company to close out their books for the quarter (some types of businesses would be faster than others)  - any special considerations for this particular quarter that affect reporting ability And finally:   - a surprise of an earnings call occurring (substantively) later than usual is rarely going to be a good sign for the underlying security, and the expectation of catastrophe - while cratering the underlying - may also cause a disproportionate rise in IVs/prices due to fear"