Offer your thoughts or opinion on the input financial query or topic using your financial background.

Is it possible to know the probability that a trade is successful?
No. Like Keshlam said, unless you have a crystal ball there is no sure thing. However based on the things you said in your question, you could be better off doing some back testing. With your findings, you can then set up trades in your favor but again it's not 100%. You may also want to check out quant finance stackexhange.