Utilize your financial knowledge, give your answer or opinion to the input question or subject . Answer format is not limited.

Why do stock prices of retailers not surge during the holidays?
I think the question can be answered by realizing that whoever is buying the stock is buying it from someone who can do the same mathematics. Ask your son to imagine that everyone planned to buy the stock exactly one week before Christmas.  Would the price still be cheap?  The problem is that if everyone knows the price will go up, the people who own it already won't want to sell.  If you're buying something from someone who doesn't really want to sell it, you have to pay more to get it.  So the price goes up a week before Christmas, rather than after Christmas. But of course everyone else can figure this out too.  So they are going to buy 2 weeks before, but that means the price goes up 2 weeks before rather than 1 week.  You play this game over and over, and eventually the expected increased Christmas sales are "priced in".  But of course there is a chance people are setting the price based on a mistaken belief. So the winner isn't the person who buys just before the others, but rather the one who can more accurately predict what the sales will be (this is why insider trading is so tempting even if it's illegal).  The price you see right now represents what people anticipate the price will be in the future, what dividends are expected in the future, how much risk people think there is, and how that compares with other available investments.