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Are variable rate loans ever a good idea?
The simple answer is absolutely.  With the parameters you quote, if you will pay off the loan in 82 months or less, you will be ahead taking the variable rate. You have put your finger on the important question as well. The higher initial interest is buying insurance against rates rising if you don't pay off the loan within 82 months.  I suspect the contract loan term is much longer than that, because otherwise a variable rate does not make sense.  You need to assess whether the insurance you are buying is worth the premium.  You can look at what the formula for the variable rate would set the rate at today. It is probably somewhat higher than the 3.79%.  That will tell you how much rates have to rise to make the variable rate go above 5.02%. Note that if the loan term is around 160 months (and it could well be 180 months, 15 years) you can afford the interest to rise to about 6.2% for the last half and you will still be dollars ahead.  It could even rise higher if you discount expenses in the future.  You could also hope that if inflation rises to make interest rates rise like that you will get cost of living raises that make this easy to pay.