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How much principal do I get back with a target-maturity ETF?
Adding a couple more assumptions, I'd compute about $18.23 would be that pay out in 2018.  This is computed by taking the Current Portfolio's Holdings par values and dividing by the outstanding shares(92987/5100 for those wanting specific figures used). Now, for those assumptions: Something to keep in mind is that bonds can valued higher than their face value if the coupon is higher than other issues given the same risk.  If you have 2 bonds maturing in 3 years of the same face value and same risk categories though one is paying 5% and the other is paying 10% then it may be that the 5% sells at a discount to bring the yield up some while the other sells at a premium to bring the yield down.  Thus, you could have bonds worth more before they mature that will eventually lose this capital appreciation.