Offer your thoughts or opinion on the input financial query or topic using your financial background.

Evidence for timing market in the short run?
The time horizon for your IRA is years or decades, therefore there is little evidence that there is a benefit to waiting for the "perfect time" to invest.  Unless you plan on making only one or 2 years of investments now and then waiting till retirement; the other deposits you will make over the decades will have a greater influence on returns.  If you are going to search for the perfect time to invest in your index fund, pick a deadline. "I will take the first sign better than X but will not wait beyond Y".