The United Nations Security Council has produced
dozens of resolutions, including imposing
trade and economic sanctions, but North Korea
hasn’t budged even an inch.
As United States President Donald Trump and
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hurl threats
at each other, it is not impossible to expect
that the prolonged crisis on the Korean Peninsula
will trigger a military conflict or war.
This scenario brings in focus the state and
competencies of the North Korean army (airforce & navy) and
the overall capacity of the country to wage
a war.
North Korean military on paper seem an impressive
force but is the reality so?
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes the
capabilities of North Korean military and
provides 5 reasons why it wont last even few
weeks in a war with U.S?
Lets get started.
North Korean navy has about 810 vessels, which
in theory could seem a threat but in practice
is no more than nuisance.
While their quantity is great, their quality
isn't as they represent decades old engineering
and design concepts.
North Korean navy is considered a brown water
navy and operates mainly within the 50 km exclusion zone.
It has no aircraft carrier or destroyer and
has only 3 frigates, which are no match to
the advanced U.S surface combatants.
Large percent of fleet is made up of small
patrol vessels.
North Korean military is in possession of
a fleet of about 70 submarines, comprised
of approximately 20 Romeo class submarines
(1,800 tons), 40 Sang-O class submarines (300
tons) and 10 Yono class submarines (130 tons).
All of these submarines uses diesel-electric
propulsion and were designed in the 50's or 60's.
They can only operate within 30 miles of the
North Korean coast. These also are much ‘louder’
compared to modern submarines and will easily
be detected by US submarines and the P8 Poseidon,
which U.S will definitely deploy in the event
of a conflict.
US will be able to neutralize these easily
and enforce a naval blocked.
In any modern day combat air superiority is
one of the most important factor deciding
the outcome of the war.
On paper the North Korean Airforce possesses
more than 500 combat capable aircrafts, but
almost all of them are 3rd generation and
4th generation once.
The MiG-29 is the KPAF's most modern fighter
and North Korea operates approximately only 40 of these.
The whole air fleet also has loads of maintenance
issues as they are at the last leg of their
service life and are grounded lot of the times.
Combat availability of the airforce may be
less than 50%.
The air-to-air missiles equipping fighters
are also far older in technology compared
to what U.S possesses.
F 22 & F 35 are a generation ahead of Mig
29, and are stealthy. In this scenario, the
North Korean pilots will find it very difficult
to detect and target them.
U.S with far sophisticated fighters, coupled
with way better pilot training and strategy,
is expected to quickly get air superiority
over North Korean skies.
North Korea has more than 1.2 million active
soldiers, and a further 7.7 million in reserve,
making its ground force one of the largest
in the world. Its troops are bolstered by
200,000 special ops soldiers.
But the troops are mostly ill equipped with
outdated weapons of Soviet era.
The country’s conventional forces, facing
a long slide after the end of the Cold War,
have faced equipment obsolescence and supply
shortages. For example, North Korea has very
few tanks based on the 1970s Soviet T-72,
and most are still derivatives of the 1960s-era T-62.
The rest of Pyongyang’s armored corps is
in a similar predicament, making them distinctly
inferior to U.S. and South Korean forces.
Sustaining a war effort requires massive reserves
not only in men, but also in material.
Napoleon is known to have said “an army
marches on its stomach”.
Not only will the relatively poor inventory
of ammunition will dwindle down in few weeks
but also will the food supply.
With these two basic items in short supply,
the North Korean forces will not be able to
continue fighting for long periods.
It is also foreseen by many experts that as
the war turns against North Korea, many will
start deserting the repressive regime, hastening
the process of capitulation.
North Korea is cut off from the world and
basically has almost no allies.
China has traditionally been North Korea’s
closest ally, but has condemned the latest
ICBM test as "unacceptable”.
North Korea has historically enjoyed strong
links with China, its neighbor to the north
and the west. But since Kim took power in
2011, the relationship has cooled.
Beijing has repeatedly asked Pyongyang to
cease its nuclear tests and ballistic missile
launches in vain.
Russia has also played it safe in the Korean
front.
In a joint statement, President Xi Jinping
vowed to work with Russian President Vladimir
Putin on diplomatic approach to the Korean
problem.
If a conflict breaks up North Korea has no
chance of getting direct or indirect military conflict or war.
Unlike North, U.S will have the direct support
from South Korea and Japan.
North Korea invests a huge proportion of its
meager economy into its military, and its
ambitious missile, nuclear and cyber programs
have caused widespread international alarm.
Pyongyang spent nearly a quarter of its GDP
on the military over the past decade, according
to US government estimates.
Being isolated from rest of the world, it
has failed to acquire modern technologies
and as discussed in the video, its armed forces
remain technologically handicapped.
Strategically, North Korea doesn’t have
the required technology, resources or allies
to wage a war for more than few days, especially
against the most powerful nation in the world.
