Gosh, our channel's first real election!
But how are we going to explain all the
different demographics the parties will
be going after in the next couple of weeks?
(A) Oh, I don't know. If only there was a
large, many character franchise, set in
Britain, with a huge internet fanbase. 
That'd be pretty handy...
[Music]
(A) Is it from Hogwarts?
Let's see. "Dear Alex and Michael, you haven't
paid your electricity bill."
Happy Halloween Honorable Friends! And
here's something scary for you - there's
going to be an election before Christmas.
Which raises an obvious question: how
will all your favorite characters from
Warner Brothers' Wizarding World of Harry
Potter vote? Well, ponder no more
Potterheads. Thanks to the magical art of
demographic voter profiling, we here
at Elections, Generally have worked out
the objectively correct answers to
age-old questions like "is Ronald Weasley a Brexiter?"
(A) Wait, aren't the characters about 40 now? (M) Yes technically that's true.
(A) And do Wizards even vote in muggle elections? (M) Thay can do, if they have a birth certificate.
(A) And do they vote in Hogwarts or... (M) Oh you pestering peasant, 
Avada Kedavra!!! (A) *DIES* 
With those objections dealt with, there's only one disclaimer
left. When JK Rowling wrote the Harry
Potter series she was a strong supporter
of the Labour Party, which for any Yanks
watching is the main party of the
British left. Perhaps this is
unsurprising, because when she started
writing Philosopher's Stone
JK Rowling was a single mother living in
Edinburgh and relying on the benefit system
to survive. (JK ROWLING) "I was 28. I was 
living on benefit, often on about £70 a week. 
I had no work. And so to 
suddenly be in a position where
actually I couldn't support myself,
because obviously anyone who's tried to
get State childcare will know that you'll
be very lucky to get the kind of childcare
that means you can work even part-time..." 
(M) This probably accounts for the
fact that all our heroes are plucky
lower-middle-class bursary kids or
hard-working public sector employees,
while all our villains are some form of
unflattering Tory stereotype, be it
suburban or aristocratic (which are the
two main flavours Tories come in). 
But is it as simple as all Gryffindors vote
for Labour and all Slytherins vote for
Conservative? Let's find out.
Hermione Granger: For our money,
Hermione is the most overtly political
of any student at Hogwarts. She's the
means by which we learn about magical racisim...
(HERMIONE) "He called me a Mudblood. (HAGRID) He did not! 
(HARRY) What's a mudblood? (HERMIONE) It means dirty blood.
Mudblood's a really foul name for someone
who is muggle-born, someone with
non-magic parents. Someone like me." 
And she founded the Society for the Protection of
Elvish Welfare, taking the apparently
radical among wizards view that slavery
is wrong. Because of all this, we're going
to class her as a highly informed, active,
and uncompromising young voter on the
British left. Because of this, she
probably doesn't actually vote Labour - or
at least, not always. To be a party of
government Labour needs to form a large
electoral coalition between different
demographics. Because of this, Labour
often ends up compromising on issues
dear to the hearts of its core supporters. 
This can be seen in Tony Blair's 
New Labour strategy, Ed Miliband's 
'controls on immigration' mugs
and most recently on Jeremy Corbyn's
Brexit policy. Now, there'll be no prizes for
guessing where Hermione stands on Brexit.
After all, what does Hermione sand for if not... 
(HERMOINE) "International magical cooperation.
to make friends." (M) I'm with you there Hermy-one. 
 While she may have felt drawn to
Labour after Corbyn was first elected leader, 
his ambiguity on Brexit probably
has since got her feeling more like "Ehhhh..."
That's why we think Hermione is more
likely to vote for a smaller party like
the Greens or the Women's Equality Party.
Just how big an issue are these
'Hermione' voters for Labour? Well
traditionally, they havn't been
that much of a problem.
That's because Hermiones tend to live
in metropolitan areas where Labour
already has a safe hold on the seat. This
is true for the original Hermione, who
grew up in the constituency of Hampstead
and Kilburn - currently represented by
Labour's Tulip Siddiq - who won the last
election with 60% of votes cast. However
at this election the question is whether
Brexit has created so many new 'Hermione
Remainers' that Labour will begin to
lose hold of traditionally safe seats.
We'll see. Until then the only other question is
Hermione, are you an owl? (HERMIONE) I'M NOT AN OWL! 
Alright, alright. Didn't mean to ruffle your feathers...
Voter profile number two: Ron Weasley. 
Hey Ron, what do you think about Hermione
choosing ideologically pure smaller
parties over larger parties that
actually have a chance of winning?
(RON) She needs to sort out her priorities.
Fair enough. After all, the Weasleys are natural
Labour voters. As a family of nine living
on the salary of one civil servant, Tory
austerity would have hit the Weasleys
hard, not to mention how the two child
cap on child benefit will have hurt
Molly Weasley's pocketbook. 
And they all have red hair.
The only complicating factor is that 
The Burrow is in the East Devon
constituency where Labour usually
struggle to hit even 10%. That said, given
the size of the brood this 10% could be 
all Weasley. The Weasleys might be
more split on Brexit. The East Devon
constituency had a slightly
above-average vote to leave the EU, as did
the southwest generally. And as a bloke,
Ron is statistically more likely to have
voted Leave. For these reasons (and partly
just for drama) we're going to classify
Ron as a Labour lever, a group that make
up around a third of all Labour
supporters. (RON) I'd like to leave.
(HERMOINE) What? You can't be serious. 
(RON) Let's vote on it, those in favor...
Boris Johnson's electoral strategy this
year is to get as many Ron Weasley's as
possible to lend him their votes in
order to get Brexit done. If they do,
Labour is scuppered. Yet as we've said, the
Weasleys are natural Labour supporters.
They've got lots of reasons to vote for
Labour and only one to vote for the
Conservatives, a party that they already
instinctually distrust. (L. MALFOY) What's the use in
being a disgrace to the name of wizard
if they don't even pay you well for it?
(A. WEASLEY) We have a very different idea about what
disgraces the name of wizard, Malfoy.
[AIRHORNS. FULL MAGICAL SOCIALISM]
What's more, as more details of Johnson's 
deal emerge during the election, Ron
may find that Johnson's Brexit isn't the
one he'd hoped for. (RON) Look, I wanted to come
back as soon as I left. (HERMIONE) You. Complete. ARSE RONALD WEAS:LEY. 
Voter profile number three: Draco Malfoy.
He's a Tory. It's a children's story, it's
not that complicated.
(DRACO) This is servant's stuff. (M) And while we're on
this, it's the same story for Professor Snape. 
And before someone goes commenting that
he was in love with Lily the whole time,
allow me to remind you that, despite what
you might read on Twitter, it is actually
possible for Conservatives to feel love.
(SNAPE) Obviously. (M) Anyway, going back to the Malfoys, we're
also going to peg them as leavers. (DRACO) You 
don't want to go making friends with the
wrong sort. (M) Whilst Britain's
post-industrial towns were a key part
of Vote Leave's electoral coalition, so
too were leafy well-to-do villages, towns
and hamets in southern England that
distrusted European Authority. In other
words, Malfoy country (DRACO) That's for my Father. Enjoy your 
ride back to London. (M) So far we've only talked
about characters from England, but north
of the border there's a third 
demention to all of this; Scottish
independence, primarily sought by the
Scottish National Party.
Most Scots over the age of 55
oppose Scottish independence (MCGONAGALL) I thank you
for that assessment...
As do those whose jobs are
particularly connected to the rest of
the UK. As auld Minerva fits both of
these classes we're going to view her as
a Scottish Unionist, though which
unionist party in Scotland she actually
votes for is less clear. That said, in her
younger days she did have some
surprisingly right-wing views.
"Benito Mussolini... Italy's
leader Supreme. A Roman worthy of his
heritage. The greatest Roman of them all."
Yikes Minerva! So are there any Scots
at Hogwarts who support Scottish
independence? What about you Cho? What do
you think? (CHO) Sorry, I didn't catch that? 
(M) I said, do you support independence for
Scotland? (CHO) Yes. (M) Makes sense, both because 
Cho is younger and because she's from
Glasgow, one of the few cities to
actually vote for independence in the
2014 referendum. Many Scots were deterred
from voting for independence by the
thought of Scotland losing its place in
the EU. Now it feels like English
politicians are vindictively taking
Scotland out anyway, many in Scotland
feel a little betrayed and the SNP is
again pushing for another referendum, or
IndyRef2 to to use the slang. If there's
another minority government SNP MPs
could hold the balance of power. Maybe
this will be enough to stop Westminster
politicians from acting like (MCGONAGALL) A babbling, bumbling
Band of Baboons. Voter profile 5:
Albus Dumbledore: An eccentric beardy
patrician wearing half-moon spectacles?
Come on,
Albus Dumbledore's a liberal. That is, not
a Lib Dem, but the Liberal Party that
preceded it. (DUMBLEDORE) "You know why I admire you? you
do not seek power. or popularity."
The Liberals, like their heirs the Lib Dems,
loved Europe and the European project. Now, 
I suppose technically Dumbledore
wouldn't have been here to see the
Brexit referendum, but had he been
there's no doubt in our minds how the
old geezer would have voted. (DUMBLEDORE) While we may
come from different places and speak in
different tongues our hearts beat as one. Alas. 
Alas indeed. Voter Profile 
number 6: Remus Lupin. 
A teacher from a
persecuted minority who grew up in
Yorkshire, Professor Lupin is ticking a
lot of Labour boxes. And considering how
loyal and stubborn he is, he's probably pretty
tribal about it too. (LUPIN) "It is the quality
of one's conviction that determines
success, not the number of followers. (KINGSLEY)
Who said that? ( LUPIN) Me,"
[DEATHBELL]
That said, the election this year is on Thursday
the 12th of December, which just so
happens to be a full moon.
That means how Lupin votes probably
depends on what time he goes to the
polling station, as werewolves are known
to be notoriously pro free markets in
their wolf form - dog eat dog and all that. 
How else might the timing of the
election effect it's outcome? Well,
conventional wisdom is that winter
elections drive down turnout, especially
further north where it's darker earlier.
Yet friendly BBC elections prediction
goblin John Curtis says that lower 
turnout is unlikely to be a factor in
this December election, because of how
animated the electorate is, because of
the difference between the two main
parties, and because we've got lights and
stuff. Voter profile number 7: Rubeus Hagrid. 
Now, call us partisan, but we
have a hard time picturing Hagrid
voting Tory. (HAGRID) "There's some Wizards, like
the Malfoy family, who think they're better than
everyone else (HARRY) That's horrible! (HAGRID) And
it's codswallop to boot!" That said, he's not
what you'd call a typical Labour
supporter either. Hagrid is nothing if
not rural, and the Labour Party with its
urban industrial origin has never had
massive support in the countryside. So we
think Hagrid is a Lib Dem. Yet we could
also see him voting for Brexit, as many
in the countryside did. (HAGRID) Better 
Out than In.
Both sides of the Brexit referendum
indulged in scaremongering, but I think
it's fair to say that the Leave side was
better on it, so it's not
hard to imagine Hagrid being convinced
that leaving the EU was the best way of
protecting the things and people he
loves. (FILTCH) "Good god man, you're not still on
about that bloody dragon? (HAGRID)
But what if he don't like Romania!?"
On the other hand, he does have a European
partner whose visa situation would be
complicated by Brexit. Ultimately, we
think Hagrid is where most of the
country is: conflicted, wanting what's
best, and really just wishing the whole
thing was over. 
I'm afraid the big guy will probably
have to wait a little while longer. at
Profile number 8: Lord Voldemort.
As a member of the House of Lords, 
Lord Voldemort doesn't vote in general
elections. Voter Profile number 9:
Harry Potter
Mr. eponymous himself, Harry Potter.  
His surviving relatives are easier to
place than the man himself. The
Dursleys are a pretty derogatory
caricature of little Englanders - and
that's us saying that! (VERNON) Justice!
The Dursleys deliberately satirize the
social mores of a type of English
Conservatism that Rowling loathes. (HARRY) "Will I have to wear that too?
(AUNT PETUNIA) Don't be so stupid, you'll go to the state school you belong." 
As a result the Dursleys are always going
to vote for the Tories, unless of course
they're tempted by Nigel Farage's Brexit party. 
This is reflected in their
constituency. Thanks to the sterling
detective work of Nick the Hermit on the
Harry Potter lexicon website in 2003, we
can use the fact the Dursleys live in
Surrey, near a motorway and within
walking distance of a railway station
that leads directly to Paddington to
conclude with a fairly high degree of
certainty that they live in the
appropriately named Spelthorne
constituency, which the Tories hold on a comfy majority of
13,000 votes. But surely Harry would never
vote the same way as the Dursleys?
But then, he does have all that inherited
wealth to think about... (HAGRID)
 "You didn't think your Mum and Dad would
leave you with nothing" 
Wait a second. Adopted. 
Wears glasses. Loathed by teachers.
Merlin's beard! Harry Potter is Michael Gove! 
But before we judge anyone for how
they vote, be they fictional or realional,
let us remember at the wise words of
Sirius Black. (SIRIUS) "The 
world isn't split into Good People
in Deatheaters. We've all got both
light and dark inside us"
Though with a house that big in London Sirius is definitely a flippin' Tory.
(A GHOST) While we're at this, should we sort the Prime Ministers into Hogwarts houses? 
Wait, didn't I kill you? (A) Yeah, but that's Halloween for you. 
Besides I think reaching a thousand
subscribers is my unfinished business.
All right, I'll enchant the Hat.
RIPOFF THE MUPPETUS
I am the sorting hat. I judge not political position, 
but temperament and disposition.
Gryffindor! 
Sorry about that.
Hmm - Clement Attlee. A virtuous man,
but what's this Limerick he's written about
himself? 
Slytherin house!
Margaret Thatcher. You'd do well in
Slytherin. Cruel. Cunning. Milk-snatching. (THATCHER) The Lady's not for Slytherin! 
No? Well, I suppose it does take a great
deal of courage to become the first
female Prime Minister. GRYFFINDOR!
Hufflepuff.
Obviously Slytherin. 
Hmmm - Gordon Brown. The
only Prime Minister to complete a PhD. 
Ravenclaw
Too easy - Slytherin. 
Racist Hufflepuff. 
Boris Johnson. Well, you're not brave. You're certainly
not loyal. You are ambitious, yet you're 
only where you are because people seem to
think you're funny. Hmm.
Reluctantly Ravenclaw. 
(A) Why does the Sorting Hat sound so much like Michael's
Churchill voice? (M) Happy Halloween!!!!
[Music]
