The total population of Africa is projected
to quadruple to about four billion
by 2100, driving the total global population
past 11 billion.
Producing the energy that all these people
will use could obliterate any efforts we’re
now making to battle climate change.
But Africa’s population explosion is also
a tremendous opportunity, because all the
power plants where all these people will get
all of their electricity from haven’t been
built yet.
This means humanity is now being presented
with a once-in-the-lifetime-of-our-species
shot to make our planet's fastest growing
region leapfrog the dirty fuels of the past,
to embrace a future of clean, renewable energy.
This is how that optimistic vision of the
future can become reality.
The residents of Zambia don’t need any reminders
that climate change threatens their way of
life.
The region is suffering its worst drought
in 35 years, that’s big trouble for a country
that gets nearly all of its power from the
force of water passing through three hydroelectric
dams.
No water means no electricity, and no electricity
means blackouts that have frequently brought
commerce and productivity to a standstill,
gutting the Zambian economy and causing many
to lose their jobs.
All across Africa, country are confronting
the same problem: a constant lack-of-power.
Sub Saharan Africa — all 910 million people
— consume less electricity than the 4.8
million people of Alabama.
Overall, more than half of all Africans have
no access to electricity.
But this is changing, thanks to the emergence
of renewable energy.
The cost of building larger-scale solar panel
and wind turbine farms continues to plummet,
making governments and utilities more likely
to choose them over traditional sources like
hydro, coal, nuclear or natural gas.
As we saw with the water shortage in Zambia
— or the nuclear meltdown a few years ago
after the earthquake in Japan — power stations
of the past are less reliable, more expensive,
far worse for our environment, and slower
to build.
So this seems like a no-brainer, Africa needs
to go green, baby!
There’re just three problems.
One, until now planners have lacked the necessary
data to identify where to develop wind and
solar projects that are socially equitable,
have low-environmental impact, and are most
cost-effective.
This problem was recently tackled by a groundbreaking
study of 21 countries that combined satellite
and ground measurements with geospatial data
on roads, towns, and existing power lines.
It provides the first blueprint for where
wind and solar projects should be built to
maximize their effectiveness.
The study also revealed Africa’s eye-opening,
untapped potential for renewable energy generation.
There are an estimated 550 million megawatts
of potential solar and wind power spread across
the continent, just waiting to be harvested.
That’s 3,700 times as much electricity as
Africa currently consumes.
That’s so much extra energy, that Africa
should aim to be powered 100% by renewables
by 2050.
It’s even possible for Africa to become
a clean energy exporting superpower by sending
its abundant surpluses of electricity to Europe;
the Middle East, India and the rest of Asia;
and even the Americas.
Of course, this is dependent on overcoming
the second major challenge: the continent’s
completely inadequate power grid.
Modernizing it to connect clean power stations
with cities all over Africa will be a long-term
megaproject costing tens of billions of dollars
in the coming decades.
For fast-growing urban areas — like Lagos,
Cairo, Kinshasa, Mogadishu, and Johannesburg
— uninterrupted electricity is critical
for the emerging industries that will fuel
economic growth and provide jobs for billions.
On the other hand, most Africans currently
live in small villages and towns, so their
energy needs can be met by inexpensive solar
and wind turbine systems that are located
on-site, but are disconnected from the main
grid.
The challenge will be connecting cities — where
more and more people are moving — with the
mega-power stations that will often be built
far away, in geographical sweet spots to maximize
the amount of harvestable solar rays and wind
gusts.
This brings us to the third problem: money.
African governments don't have much to spare,
so if we’re expecting them to fund this
clean energy transition one their own — one
of the most expensive endeavors in human history
— we should just keep on dreaming.
Organizations like the World Bank understand
this.
In 2015 it created the Scaling Solar Programme
to help investors partner with African nations
that are looking to go green, but are often
seen as risky places to start a large project.
If ideas like this continue to gain traction,
it will hopefully lead to a huge influx of
private capital in the coming years.
Another strategy is for wealthier nations
to provide the money, understanding that every
time an African country chooses clean over
dirty energy, the entire world is a little
better off in the long run.
The U.N.’s Green Climate Fund is intended
to be the centerpiece for this action.
It hoped to raise hundreds of billions of
dollars by 2020.
But so far it has received just $10 billion.
US President Obama transferred $500 million
into the fund in his final week in office,
then handed the government of the world’s
richest country over to a climate change denier,
so it’s unlikely the US will be contributing
more any time soon.
Still, while progress may be held back for
a few years, it is an undeniable fact that
helping Africa go green is best for everyone
in the long-term.
Time will tell if we’re able to seize this
moment.
But every single day that passes without action,
every time a baby is born in Africa, the pressure
on governments to pull energy from the ground
increases, and the window of opportunity for
a clean future closes a little bit more.
Thanks for watching.
Our previous video in this series profiling
the megacity of Lagos sparked your interest,
so we’ll keep it going.
Several of you had helpful requests on places
to cover next, and I’ll definitely be looking
into them.
Others were pleased to hear about a leader
like Governor Ambode that Africans can place
some hope in.
Until next time, for TDC, I’m Bryce Plank.
