The different approach of New Guineans
to assessing risk
is perhaps the aspect of living in New
Guinea that is most
affected my personal life.
In one of my early
trips to New Guinea
I was with a batch of New Guineans on a mountain side. We saw birds, we moved up the mountain
I was ready to pick a new campsite
and I found a gorgeous potential campsite in the forest
on the flat top of a ridge, steep drop-off where I could watch
parrots and pigeons, underneath a giant tree.
So I told the New Guineans let's pitch camp here and to my surprise they refused
to pitch camp there and they said look this
tree is dead.
So I looked up and yes, this giant tree
was dead.
But I thought that's ridiculous it's not going to fall for
forty years
But they were adamant they were not going
to sleep under a dead tree.
In fact they slept in the open.
I thought that they were being paranoid with
exaggerated fears
and then as I spent more time in New Guinea,
every night you're in New Guinea
sleeping in forests you hear a tree
fall somewhere
and then you go do the numbers.
Suppose
the risk of that tree falling on me tonight is 1 in 1000.
I sleep under dead
trees for a thousand nights.
In three years I'm
gonna be dead.
The example in western life for me
there was taking a shower.
The most dangerous thing I
did today was to
to take a shower and you're gonna say that is ridiculous.
Your chance of falling in the shower is 1 in 1000. But again do the numbers.
I'm 76. Statistically I have 15 years ahead of me.
That means 5475 showers ahead of me.
If my risk of breaking my leg in the shower
is 1 in 1000,
I'm gonna kill myself 5.5 times
before I live out my life expectancy
And that brought it home - 
the New Guinea attitude is to be
sensitive to the risks of events, of things that you're gonna do regularly.
Each time they carry a low risk
But if you're not cautious it will catch
up with you.
