On the 23rd of June, 2016, the British people
were asked to make a choice about the United
Kingdom’s membership of the European Union.
The choice was simple: Remain, and continue
membership as normal; or Leave, and withdraw
from the EU.
The European Economic Community, the EU’s
predecessor, was created in 1957. The UK was
not one of the original members… which were:
Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands
and West Germany. The UK joined the EEC in
1973. Although it was 3rd time lucky for the
UK, as the French president at the time, Charles
de Gaulle, had vetoed their application twice
before because he thought that Britain were
“incompatible with Europe”.
He may have had a point, as just 2 years later,
there was a referendum to leave the EEC. Joining
was done under the Conservative government
of Edward Heath, but after a change of leadership,
Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, disagreed
with the decision to join, and put it to the
British people to vote on the issue.
The referendum was decisively in favour of
remaining, as 67% of the people voted to stay.
In 1992, the European Union was created, as
the organisation shifted to become more of
a political union, rather than simply an economic
one.
The United Kingdom has always enjoyed a somewhat
special status within the EU. Shortly after
the EU’s creation, the euro was introduced,
a single shared currency to be used throughout
Europe, across different nations. Most countries
dropped their own local currency, and adopted
the euro. Countries which use the euro are
part of what’s known as the Eurozone, from
which the UK has an opt-out, and the country
has always stuck to its own currency, the
Pound Sterling.
Likewise, the Schengen Area, which abolished
border controls between member states, is
an agreement which allows freedom of travel
between all other Schengen Area countries,
without the need to show a passport. The UK
also has an opt-out for this, too.
So why exactly did this referendum actually
happen in the first place? Well, Euroscepticism
has been a growing phenomenon in the UK over
the last few decades, that is, criticism of
Europe and the UK’s membership within the
EU. The most telling sign of this was the
rise of the “UK Independence Party”, or
“UKIP”, and their somewhat constrovesional
leader, Nigel Farage.
In the 2014 European Parliamentary election,
UKIP came out on top, winning the most seats.
This was a shock as the Conservative Party
and the Labour Party had dominated British
politics for a century. This was the first
time since 1906 that an election had been
won by anyone other than the Conservatives
or Labour.
Of course this was a European election, not
a general election, which came the year after.
UKIP managed to obtain 12.7% of the popular
vote.. although this only won them 1 of the
650 seats at Westminster because of how the
British voting system works.
The 2015 general election was also the reason
this referendum came to be.. current Prime
Minister at the time, David Cameron, had promised
in the lead-up to the election, that should
the Conservatives win and he remains Prime
Minister, the UK will hold a referendum on
EU membership. The reason he did this, was
because there was growing Euroscepticism within
his own party. The referendum was his way
of keeping his party members happy, though
he himself actually was in favour of remaining.
So because the Conservatives did win the general
election, Cameron kept his promise, and the
referendum date was set.
So what exactly were the some of the issues
that were discussed during the campaign? Well,
there were a large number of potential issues,
but by far and away the biggest issue was:
immigration.
Immigration has always been a bit of touchy
subject in the UK, with many people believing
that the level of immigration is far too high.
Being a member of the EU, means that citizens
of other EU countries are free to live and
work in UK.
Historically, non-EU immigration had always
far surpassed EU immigration. But EU immigration
has been on the rise since 2003, and in 2015,
it was split roughly 50/50 between EU and
non-EU immigration, with about 550,000 immigrants
coming to the UK. It has been estimated that
around 13% of people living in the UK are
foreign-born.
Leaving the EU would certainly reduce the
number of immigrants coming from the EU, but
just how big the impact is, will be highly
dependant on the deal to UK and the EU agree
upon.
One of the other reasons people wanted to
leave, is the cost of membership. EU members
are either net contributors or net beneficiaries.
Net contributors being countries that pay
in more than they back, while net beneficiaries
receive more than they give. In 2015, the
UK was the 2nd highest net contributor to
the EU budget, behind Germany.
How much does it cost the UK government to
be a member of the EU? The Vote Leave campaign
stated that the UK pays about £350m per week
to be a member of the EU. ‘Surely that money
would be better spent on the National Health
Service?’ they said.
However, this figure has been widely criticised.
First of all, this number does not take into
account the UK’s rebate of £75m. Money
which never leaves the country in the first
place. Second, £115m of that gets spent in
the UK itself, on things like subsidies for
farmers and research funding for British universities.
So the actual figure is more like £160m per
week. Or just over 1% of the £14 billion
the UK government spends every week. The Remain
Campaign said the economic benefits of being
a member far outway the cost of membership.
Sovereignty and EU law was another issue as
to why some people wanted to leave the EU.
Why should laws be decided in Brussels and
not here in Britain? Was the argument made.
We should “take back control” was the
message from the Leave Campaign, and claims
were made that 62% of our laws come from the
EU. On the opposite side, the Remain Campaign
said this was inaccurate and that the figure
was only 13%.
So… which of these is correct? Well, neither,
really. Both sides were being disingenuous
and trying to push their political agenda.
The 13% figure is certainly too low, this
includes only laws, while neglecting other
EU rules and regulations.
On the other hand, 62% is also too high. This
figure counts every EU law, rule, and regulation
that there is, regardless of whether or not
it’s even applicable to the UK.
In reality, it’s impossible to arrive at
accurate figure, it’s definitely somewhere
in between the two claims, but EU laws have
different levels of impact on different areas.
A further concern by so-called “Brexiteers”
was that the EU is expanding.. five new countries
are in the process of joining the EU: Albania,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey.
The focus of course being on Turkey and its
76 million people.
With all the safety concerns about ISIS and
the migrant crisis, there were fears of letting
Turkey, a country which borders Syria, join
the EU.
While it is true that Turkey is technically
in the process of joining.. it has been for
the last three decades. Turkey first applied
to join back in 1987, it was declared an eligible
candidate in 1997, and negotiations began
in 2005.
Before a country can join, a country must
complete 35 chapters of negotiations. As of
2016, Turkey has completed... just one. Of
the remaining 34, 14 are open for negotiation,
while the other 20 still remain closed.
One of the biggest issues facing Turkey’s
ascension to the EU is the Cyprus dispute,
with Cyprus being a current EU member, and
Turkey being the only country that recognises
the Republic of Northern Cyprus, viewed by
the international community as occupied territory.
So in short… Turkey will not joining the
EU any time soon. It may take several decades,
or never even happen at all.
So campaigning on both sides went on for quite
some time before the referendum day. Leave
or Remain is something that didn’t necessarily
fall along party lines. People from all sides
of the political spectrum were voting both
leave and remain.
So, on the 23rd of June, the referendum day
arrived, so who was eligible to vote? All
British and Commonwealth citizens living in
the UK were eligible to vote, while EU citizens
residing in the UK, were not.
Very early the next morning it was announced
that the UK had voted to leave the EU, with
52% to 48. This came as a massive shock to
some people, even though opinion polls had
consistently showed how close it could it
be.
Having a closer look at the results shows
a clear geographical divide. Generally speaking,
Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London voted
to Remain, but the rest of England as well
as Wales, voted to leave. Voting turnout was
72% with over 33 million votes.
By demographics as well, there is a clear
correlation between age and voting preference,
with older people generally being more likely
to vote to leave while young voters opted
for staying.
As the result was released, Nigel Farage proudly
stated that the 23rd of June should be celebrated
as the UK’s “independence day”.
Immediately following the victory for the
leave campaign, David Cameron announced his
resignation, stated that he believed the country
needed “fresh leadership”. Theresa May
would later replace him as Prime Minister,
even though she also had favoured staying
part of the EU.
Overnight, as the results were still coming
in, the value of the pound plummeted by 10%
as it fell to a 31 year low against the US
dollar.
So what happens now? Well, even the though
the result of the vote was to leave the EU…
it’s not something that goes into effect
immediately. The UK is still part of the EU.
In fact, the process to leave hasn’t even
begun yet.
In order for the process to actually start,
the UK government must first invoke Article
50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Once this happens,
a 2 year negotiating period between the 27
remaining members will begin. The UK will
not be able to take part in the negotiations.
So at the moment we have no idea how long
it will be before the UK actually leaves the
EU. We don’t know when Article 50 will be
invoked, and we don’t know how long negotiations
will last.* In fact, it’s not even certain
it will even happen. Legally, the decision
could be still be reversed or Article 50 may
never be invoked. No member of the EU has
ever left before so this is completely unprecedented.
The future of the United Kingdom will hinge
on the deal that is agreed between the UK
and the EU. Of course the UK and the EU will
continue to trade, so they will want to remain
close allies… but on the other hand, the
EU doesn’t want to give the UK too great
of a deal, which may tempt other countries
into leaving as well.
There have been discussions about whether
or not the UK would remain part of the “single
market” and perhaps have a similar relationship
with the EU as Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
or Liechtenstein. These four countries are
not members of the EU, but participate in
the single market’s “four freedoms”
- the free movement of goods, capital, services,
and people.
So if the UK does remain part of the single
market, the impact on immigration, which was
by far the most important issue for many leave
voters, will likely be a minor one.
So what about Scotland? Every single region
of Scotland voted to remain part of the EU
with an overall 62% of voters in favour of
staying..
Back in 2014, Scotland voted No on its independence
referendum, choosing to stay part of the United
Kingdom. This was said to be a once-in-lifetime
vote.. but with such overwhelming preference
towards staying in the EU, the situation has
changed. For this reason, there are talks
of a second referendum on independence. The
Scottish government is currently exploring
all possible options.
In the week following the Brexit vote, Scottish
first minister Nicola Sturgeon travelled to
Brussels to discuss Scotland’s future. It’s
unclear if Scotland will be able to continue
its current relationship with the EU, although
it does seem unlikely that Scotland could
have a different status within the EU than
the rest of the UK.
So Scotland may need to become independent
first in order to join the EU. However, this
puts Scotland in an awkward position. The
EU is Scotland’s 2nd largest trading partner,
but the rest of the UK is its first. So if
a 2nd referendum on independence does happen,
it’s not a foregone conclusion that independence
would be the result.
And then what about Northern Ireland? Nearly
56% of Northern Irish voters favoured staying
in the EU as well. The largest Nationalist
political party in Northern Ireland, Sinn
Fién, called for a referendum on Irish reunification
in the event of a Brexit vote. However, this
does seem unlikely to happen any time soon.
Northern Ireland is still overwhelmingly Unionist.
And finally, there have even been calls for
the capital city, London, to become its own
city-state within the EU as the capital also
voted to remain, with only 40% voting to leave.
An online petition currently has over 180,000
signatures.
The future of United Kingdom, and indeed the
rest of the EU, is unknown at the moment,
only time will tell how things will play out.
One thing seems certain though, that after
the Brexit vote, the United Kingdom, seems
more divided than ever.
