HERE WE GO, ONE DAY FROM THE
ELECTION.
I'M GOING TO GIVE YOU
MACRO NUMBERS HERE BECAUSE WE
ARE NOW AT A POINT WHERE
STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWNS GET A
LITTLE DICIER, THEY ARE A LITTLE
BIT ALL ACROSS THE MAP, WE HAD
THE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE FBI
SAYING OOPS, OVER THE WEEKEND WE
LOOK THROUGH 650,000 EMAILS AND
IT TURNS OUT THERE IS NOTHING IN
THEM.
THERE IS PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO BE POLLING THAT IS DONE
IN ENOUGH TIME TO TELL YOU THE
EFFECT OF THAT NEWS, SO IT'S
COMPLICATED.
BUT I CAN GIVE YOU
A MACRO SENSE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE ELECTION.
I WILL GIVE YOU
HUFFPOST POLLING, LAST I LOOKED
THEY WERE AT 98% CHANCE FOR
HILLARY CLINTON TO WIN.
I FIND
THAT PREPOSTEROUS, RIDICULOUS.
LET ME EXPLAIN.
EVERYONE DOZEN
AGGREGATE ON THE POLLS IN A
DIFFERENT WAY, OVER THE WEEKEND
THE HUFFINGTON POST AND NATE
SILVER HAD A BIG FIGHT ON HOW TO
DO THE POLLS, I DON'T WANT TO
BORE YOU WITH THE DETAILS BUT
THE FOLKS THAT JUST LOOK AT THE
POLLS AND SAY BASED ON OUR
CALCULATIONS AND LIKELY VOTERS
AND OUR READING OF WHAT WE
CONSIDER REPUTABLE POLLS, THEY
COME UP WITH DIFFERENT NUMBERS.
HUFFPOST HAS IT THAT 98.4, I
THINK THAT'S RIDICULOUS.
WHAT
DOES 538, NATE SILVER'S SITE,
HAVE IT AT?
HERE'S WHERE IT'S
DIFFERENT, THE 98% FOR
HUFFINGTON POST IS HER CHANCE OF
WINNING THE ELECTION BASED ON
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
NATE WILL
LOOK AT HOW MUCH OF A LEAD SHE
HAS NATIONWIDE.
THIS IS JUST THE
POPULAR VOTE, THAT'S NOT HOW WE
DECIDE ELECTIONS IN AMERICA,
WHICH IS INSANE BY THE WAY, BUT
TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF WHETHER
SHE IS UP OR NOT, AS HE EXPLAINS
THIS IS ROUGH.
ROUGHLY, SHE HAS
ABOUT A 2 1/2 POINT LEAD.
THAT
IS MY SUMMARY OF NATE SILVER'S
SUMMARY AT 538, HE HAS A
SLIGHTLY BROADER RANGE, BETWEEN
2 AND 3%, BUT I THINK THAT'S
EXACTLY RIGHT.
THAT IS MY
READING OF THE POLLS, SKEWED OR
UNSKEWED.
SHE COULD WIN THE
POPULAR VOTE AND STILL LOSE THE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
WHEN IT COMES
TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, NATE
SILVER'S READ IS THAT CLINTON'S
CHANCES ARE 65%.
IF YOU ARE A
GAMBLER, THOSE NUMBERS ARE
CONCERNING.
IF YOU'VE GOT A 98%
CHANCE OF WINNING A BET, EVEN IF
YOU ARE CURSED AND YOU ARE THE
CUBS AND EVERYTHING GOES AGAINST
YOU, YOU PROBABLY ARE STILL
GOING TO WIN THAT BET.
IF YOU'VE
GOT A 35% CHANCE OF LOSING A
BET, I'VE GOT TO TELL YOU, YOU
WILL LOSE IT A LOT OF TIMES.
THAT IS THE MOST OBVIOUS,
RIDICULOUS THING TO SAY.
OF
COURSE, IT'S 65-35.
BUT I SAY IS
A BETTOR BECAUSE IF YOU HAVEN'T
DONE A LOT OF GAMBLING, A LOT OF
FOLKS LOOK AT IT AND GO, I GOT
IT, ONE IS GOING TO WIN, THE
OTHER ONE IS NOT.
SO IF SOMEONE
HAS A 51% CHANCE -- 65, THAT
SOUNDS HIGH, THAT MEANS THEY ARE
GOING TO WIN.
NO IT DOESN'T. IT
MEANS 35% OF THE TIME, THE OTHER
GUY WINS.
AND THAT HAPPENS.
IT
HAPPENS A LOT, IT HAPPENS 35% OF
THE TIME.
I KNOW FOR SOME OF YOU
THAT IS SUPER SIMPLE, FOR SOME
OF YOU, YOU ARE STILL THINKING
THE ONE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
IS GOING TO WIN -- NO, THAT'S
NOT HOW IT ALWAYS GOES.
AND
POLLS HAVE A MARGIN OF ERROR,
HER NATIONAL LEAD IS AN
AGGREGATE SO IT IS LESS LIKELY
TO HAVE ERROR, BUT THE POLLS BY
STATE ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE
ERROR, EVERYONE DOES POLLS IN A
DIFFERENT WAY, SOME ARE RELIABLE
SOME ARE NOT.
NATE IS WEIGHING
THE POLLS, AND IN THE PRIMARIES
I THOUGHT HE WAY UNDERPLAYED
DONALD TRUMP, I THINK I WAS
RIGHT ON THAT, HE APOLOGIZED TO
HIS AUDIENCE FOR THAT, I THOUGHT
HE UNDERESTIMATED BERNIE SANDERS
IN OPEN PRIMARY STATES LIKE
MICHIGAN, ON THE OTHER HAND HE
GOT CLOSED PRIMARY STATES LIKE
NEW YORK RIGHT.
IN THIS CASE I
AGREE WITH HIM COMPLETELY, I
AGREE WITH HIM ABOUT 100% IN HIS
ANALYSIS.
THAT MEANS, HOLD ON
FOR DEAR LIFE.
SHE STILL HAS A
GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING AND IF
YOU ARE A BETTOR, BY THE WAY,
YOU DON'T WANT TO BE ON THE 35%
SIDE, YOU WANT TO BE ON THE 65.
SHE IS STILL LIKELY TO WIN, BUT
IT COULD GO THE OTHER WAY.
WHEN
YOU LOOK AT ANY ELECTORAL MAP,
AND SOME FOLKS, I CALL THEM THE
ESTABLISHMENT BUT REALLY PEOPLE
WHO WORK IN WASHINGTON AND NEW
YORK, THAT BUBBLE, THE REASON I
SAY BUBBLE IN THIS CASE IS
BECAUSE THEY REALLY DON'T ALMOST
KNOW ANYONE IN THE MIDDLE CLASS
OR AMONG THE POOR.
THEY WILL BE
SUPER MAD AT ME SAYING THAT, YOU
DON'T KNOW THAT, OF COURSE I DO
-- REALLY?
YOU GO DRINKING WITH
FOLKS IN THE MIDDLE CLASS ALL
THE TIME?
AND NO, I'VE GOT NEWS
FOR YOU, IF YOU MAKE $250,000
YOU ARE NOT MIDDLE-CLASS.
I KNOW
YOU THINK YOU ARE BECAUSE YOU
KNOW A BUNCH OF DUDES WHO MAKE
10 MILLION A YEAR, BUT YOU ARE
NOT.
IN THOSE CIRCLES THEY GO, I
DON'T KNOW ANYONE WHO VOTES FOR
TRUMP.
THEY ARE NOT MAKING UP
THE POLLS AT HUFFPOST, BUT WHEN
YOU LOOK AT IT WITH A CERTAIN
LENS YOU THINK I WILL DO THE
MATH THIS WAY, NOT EVEN KNOWING
THAT UNCONSCIOUS BIAS.
WHEN THEY
DO THEIR MATH YOU'VE GOT AN
ELECTORAL COLLEGE THAT HAS
HILLARY CLINTON WINNING IN A
LANDSLIDE.
MY MAP DOES NOT SHOW
LANDSLIDE.
I'VE GOT IT EXACTLY
WHERE I HAD IT THREE WEEKS AGO,
WHICH IS RAZOR THIN MARGIN.
I
HAVE HILLARY CLINTON WINNING IN
A RAZOR THIN MARGIN, BUT IT
COULD GO THE OTHER WAY IN 35% OF
THE INSTANCES.
OH BOY.
