(ticking)
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- A German political science professor
called Christian Hacke, recently
wrote a front-page article
in a significant 72-year
old German newspaper
Called the Welt.
In the article, he argued that
as the U.S under Donald Trump
is becoming an increasingly
unreliable partner,
Germany needs to consider guaranteeing
its own nuclear deterrence.
He is not the first to argue this point;
when Trump was elected in 2016,
the editor of the biggest
conservative newspaper in Germany
had made a similar argument,
and a Member of Parliament
asked the parliamentary
research service to look into
options for Germany to share
France's or the United
Kingdom's nuclear weapons.
The debate about German militarization
has gained speed in recent years.
The shift started becoming
publicly apparent in 2014,
when Germany's president and
foreign and defence ministers
all urged an increased
global security role
for the country at the annual
Munich Security Conference.
This took place only a few weeks earlier,
before Russia's leader,
President Vladimir Putin,
annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
I'm Kasim, this is KJ
Vids and in this video,
we will look at the
expansion of the German army.
In 2016, Chancellor Angela
Merkel announced plans
to increase the size of the Germany army
which would be Germany's
first expansion in 25 years.
Merkel's announcement marked the end
to the steady decline in troop numbers
since the end of the Cold War.
At the time, German Defence
Minister Ursula von der Leyen
said, "A quarter century
of shrinking is over.
"It is time for the
Bundeswehr to grow again."
By February 2017, Berlin
announced plans to increase
the military's roster
of professional soldiers
from the 178,000 at the
time to 198,000 by 2025.
An earlier announcement
also pledged to spend up
to 130 billion euros on
new equipment by 2030.
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During the Cold War, West
Germany was considered
the first line of defence
against a Soviet invasion,
and at its height, the Bundeswehr
had 500,000 active service personnel.
Cold War historians
described West Germany's army
as perhaps the best in the world.
But in the years following
the fall of the Berlin Wall
and German reunification,
defence spending dropped sharply.
The discovery of the ghastly
war crimes in early 1945
triggered a deep, world-wide revulsion
that darkened the German
name for decades to come.
Rumours about the murder of over
five million Jews in
Auschwitz and elsewhere
seemed unimaginable to believe
until gradually the reports
of thousands of skeletons
and unburied bodies emerged
from the underground of a
rocket factory in Nordhausen.
The responsibility for World War II
and the national sentiment
of guilt shaped the role
of German politicians and
citizens in Europe for decades.
A pacifist attitude and
a certain scepticism
about military activities
was developed in Germany,
regardless of generational change,
which can still be observed today.
At the end of World War II,
at the Yalta and Potsdam
Conferences in 1945,
the leaders of the USA, the USSR,
and Great Britain planned
the de-Nazification,
democratisation and demilitarisation
of a post-war Germany,
undermining the country's
industrial capacity
to make war.
Germany was allowed no
government of its own in 1945
and was divided into occupation zones,
one for each Allied power.
These three victorious
powers, along with France,
shared the administration of Germany,
which was carved up into
four zones of occupation.
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Immediately after the war,
Winston Churchill spoke of an Iron Curtain
that had descended across Europe,
behind which the Soviet Union was hiding.
He famously said, "An
Iron Curtain is drawn
"down upon their front.
"We do not know what is going on behind."
Berlin, which found itself
within the Soviet zone
of occupation, or Eastern Zone,
became known as the Berlin Blockade,
after Russia cut off all access
to the eastern side of Berlin
and forced the other Allies to airlift
relief supplies to the needy residents.
The early seeds of the Cold War were sown
in the post-war tension over Germany;
both sides were unwilling
to fire any shots,
but Berlin and Germany
became cards to be played
by the larger world powers.
The tensions eventually led
to the 1961 erection of the Berlin Wall,
which would stand as
both a physical barrier
and a metaphorical symbol
for the bifurcation of
Berlin for almost 30 years.
The Iron Curtain separated
the capitalist West
from the Soviet Communist
East and became the front line
in a new conflict, the Cold War.
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In Germany and in Europe,
most industries were
destroyed after World War II,
causing chronic unemployment and poverty.
In 1947, the U.S. Secretary
of State, George C. Marshall,
had the idea of a European
Recovery Programme.
It was designed to contain communism
and to create markets for U.S. products.
Great Britain, France,
Italy, Germany, Austria,
Greece and the Benelux countries
received help from the USA.
Washington invested $13.2 billion
into the European economy.
For many experts, this provided the basis
of what is today the European Union.
In the 1950s, the German
economy was beginning
to experience what Germans
described as an Economic Miracle.
The Christian Democrats had introduced
the so-called social market economy,
and industry grew by 185%
between 1950 and 1963.
To rebuild Germany, the
economy needed extra hands,
and from the mid-1950s, a
steady flow of Gastarbeiter,
the German word for guest
workers, were recruited,
first from Italy, but then
also from other countries,
including many from Turkey.
West Germany had been
transformed within 15 years
from a Nazi disaster zone
into a prosperous immigration state.
With the gradual waning of
Soviet power in the late 1980s,
the Communist Party in East Germany
began to lose its grip on power.
Tens of thousands of East
Germans began to flee the nation,
and by late 1989, the Berlin
Wall started to come down.
Shortly thereafter, talks between East
and West German officials,
joined by officials
from the United States,
Great Britain, France, and the USSR,
began to explore the
possibility of reunification.
The wall finally fell on
the 9th of November in 1989,
and 10 months later, the
Two Plus Four Agreement
was signed on 12th September 1990,
paving the way for the
reunification of Germany.
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The reunification of Germany
and the end of the Cold War
significantly changed Germany's
geopolitical situation.
Germany was no longer divided,
nor located at the fault
line of a global conflict.
But its geographical position
in the middle of the continent,
impacts Germany in many ways.
First, it makes Germany
particularly vulnerable.
The fact that it shares
borders with nine countries
more than any other country in Europe,
makes its security
particularly precarious,
not only in military terms
but also a prime target
of migratory movements.
Secondly, Germany's location makes Germany
an especially important
player in European politics.
It can act both as a
bridge and as a barrier
between the two parts of
the European continent,
which had been strictly
separated during the Cold War.
Its huge capabilities,
including the potential of its population,
its territory, economic
and military capabilities
adds to the significance for
European and world politics.
These capabilities and
its geographical position
make Germany the central power of Europe,
a fact that was recognised
by the other great powers
immediately after the Cold War,
whilst Germans themselves
were still scarred
by the horrors of the wars
and a political consciousness
of national guilt.
But although the Germans
were slow to realise
their geopolitical significance,
questions quickly arose about
their nation's security.
As long as the U.S. and NATO were ready
to protect Germany's security,
Germany could remain a pacifist state,
but what was the reason for the U.S.
and other western powers
to protect the country?
And if Germany continued to
remain oblivious of its power,
it wouldn't just affect Germany itself
but also its European neighbours.
Ignoring Germany's power and continuing
with the low-profile foreign
policy of West Germany
would have no more benign effects on them
than an abuse of German power.
It was certain that every German decision,
or non-decision, will have
ramifications on Europe.
Such debates by the German
elite eventually culminated
into a decision that with
the gradual development,
there was a need for a more
assertive foreign policy.
Germany began full participation in NATO
out-of-area operations,
and even participated
in the air strikes against Yugoslavia.
Germany shifted from a
psyche of military restraint
to being part of so-called
humanitarian interventions
with a view to enact what they
feel as their responsibility
in playing a role to maintain
their national security.
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In 2002, Germany's refusal to
participate in the Iraq war
was a traumatic shock for
U.S.-German relations at the time,
and perhaps the start of a more permanent
new paradigm of power politics in Berlin.
Although it was revealed within the decade
that the German intelligence service
played an important role
in how the United States
fought the war in Iraq,
such as offering intelligence
assistance, military bases,
relief and the provision of airspace,
Germany's no to the U.S about
Iraq stunned public opinion.
This episode signalled to
Washington and EU capitals
as evidence that the re-united
Germany remains a country
that is still evolving
with regards to its sense
of how and when military force
can be used legitimately.
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Germany is caught up in a balancing act
between appeasing America
and at the same time appeasing Russia.
On the one hand, Germany has had peace
under the security of America and NATO,
but on the other hand, Germany has had
a strong economic
relationship with Russia.
This is a problem for
America, who don't wish to see
closer economic integration
between Germany and Russia
that could tilt Germany closer
to the rising economic powers of the East.
Instead of using the EU to contain Russia,
it gives Russia more geo-economic
leverage over the EU.
The North Atlantic Treaty
Organisation summit
in Brussels in July 2018
left Germans stunned
by President Donald
Trump's relentless attacks
on the nation's contributions
to the defence alliance
and its economic ties to Russia.
Trump told the NATO Secretary
on the first day of the summit,
"We have to talk about
the billions and billions
"of dollars that's being
paid to the country
"we're supposed to be
protecting you against."
Germany, in general, considers
alliances with the US,
as well as with the rest of the EU,
as key to maintaining stability,
peace and healthy trade.
Throughout its history, however,
the United States isn't
the only superpower
with which Germany has sought
to maintain close relations.
Gustav Gressel from the European Council
on Foreign Relations
explains that in order to
pacify the Russian threat
during and after the Cold War,
Germany began developing
energy networks with Russia,
which were accelerated at the
beginning of the millennium.
The relationship spawned
massive natural gas pipelines
from Russia to Germany, and
Russian gas now makes up
almost 10% of Germany's energy mix,
according to government figures.
That amount could increase
when a second pipeline,
Nord Stream 2, opens soon,
especially as Germany moves
to shut down coal-fired
and nuclear energy,
in line with the energy
transition to renewable sources.
The U.S. has already threatened
Germany with sanctions
over the construction of the underwater
natural-gas pipeline.
But the economic rapprochement
between Russia and Germany
was disturbed in 2014,
when Putin annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
Gressel said that this showed Germany
that the "attempt to flatter Russia,
"or to provide economic
incentives to Russia
"to make Russia more conformist
"and to accept Europe as it
is, has basically failed.
"Germany, as far as I'm concerned,
"is captive to Russia
because it's getting so much
"of its energy from Russia."
Gustav Gressel from the European Council
on Foreign Relations in Berlin
explained Germany's reaction to Trump.
"The Germans are trying
to assess what could be
"the maximum damage and how
should the Europeans react
"if Trump does something horribly stupid."
These events alone
demonstrate how insecure
Germany are currently feeling.
America's tariffs and
protectionist trade wars,
a muscular and emboldened
Russia that wants to reconstruct
a historic sphere of
influence in the region,
chaos in the Middle East
that has led to a global
migrant crisis of which
Germany is the centre of,
and climate change has led to no choice
except for Germany to prepare itself
from the instability it predicts
and the threat it perceives
to its national security.
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In this context, Germany announced
a fundamental shift in
its military doctrine
by announcing the White Paper 2016
on German Security Policy and
the Future of the Bundeswehr.
The paper marks a new
milestone and Germany's return
to an aggressive foreign
and military policy.
The foreword from the pen
of Chancellor Angela Merkel
makes clear that after suffering
defeats in two World Wars,
followed by years of
foreign policy restraint,
Germany is once again preparing itself
for worldwide military
operations free from constraints
and for military conflicts
within Europe itself.
Merkel writes, "The world
of 2016 is unsettled.
"We in Germany and Europe
are seeing and feeling
"the impact of a lack of freedom
"and of crises and conflicts.
"We are experiencing
that peace and stability
"are not a matter of
course even in Europe."
The Chancellor's conclusion was that,
"Germany's economic and political weight
"means that it is our duty
to take on responsibility
"for Europe's security, in association
"with our European and
transatlantic partners.
"We must stand up even more
"for our shared values, and demonstrate
"even greater commitment
to security, peace,
"and a rules-based order
than we have done to date."
This White Paper demonstrates Germany's
renewed political consciousness
in preparing itself
for a turbulent future.
But after decades of a
pacifist foreign policy,
Germany has a lot of
catching up to do, and fast.
This is why the German
Chancellor announced
a major rearmament
programme early this year.
In the Bundeswehr conferences in Berlin,
Merkel referred to the growing conflicts
between the U.S. and the European powers.
She described the unilateral termination
of the Iran agreement, the U.S. exit
from the Framework
Convention on Climate Change,
and the rise in protectionism
as the expression
of a crisis-ridden multilateralism.
"It is therefore more
important that Germany comply
"with its commitment to NATO
"and increase defence spending by 2024
"to 2% of its GDP," said Merkel.
That would amount to an
increase from the current total
of 37 billion to between
70 and 75 billion euros,
and would far exceed the
increase of 5.5 billion euros
previously set in the budget
over the next four years.
This is the biggest expansion
of German military spending
since the end of World War II.
Germany's foreign policy has
evolved dramatically over time.
From dropping an
expansionist grand strategy,
to becoming a pacifist military power,
and then by playing a more assertive,
but limited role in European security,
and now to expanding its
own independent military.
Germany's experience
demonstrates that powers are not
independent from the international
and domestic environment.
Shifts in geopolitics can
easily influence policy choices
and a nation's psychology
towards its security
and the role its military
has in defending it.
(upbeat techno music)
I hope we all learned
something from this video
and developed a further interest
in international politics.
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