Kim Jong Un's recent
disappearance from public view
has sparked talk of
succession in North Korea.
Any change to the
leadership in Pyongyang
threatens a struggle
for control of one
of the world's most
dangerous stockpiles
of nuclear and chemical weapons.
Despite state media showing
the North Korean Supreme Leader
reemerge at the opening
of a fertiliser factory,
questions over his
health have lingered,
and intelligence agencies
from Seoul to Washington
are left facing one key
question - who is next in line
to replace Kim Jong Un?
When Kim Jong Un
was handed power
after the death of
his father, Kim Jong
Il in 2011, experts braced
themselves for regime collapse.
The young leader, who had spent
part of his youth in Europe,
only emerged as the anointed
successor barely two years
earlier, and few thought he had
the authority to hold the Kim
dynasty together.
However, the now
36-year-old dictator
defied expectations by
removing threats to his power,
including the brutal killings
of his uncle and half brother.
With few close family members
left and his own children
believed to be far too
young, the next in line
could be Kim Yo Jong, the
Supreme Leader's younger
sister.
Kim Yo Jong gained
international prominence in 2018
when she was dispatched
to attend the Winter
Olympics in South Korea
and became the first member
of the Kim regime to visit the
country since the Korean War.
She is believed to
have important roles
in political
departments in Pyongyang
and is seen to be a top
advisor to her brother,
including during his flurries
of brinkmanship and diplomacy
with Donald Trump.
Based on the regime's priorities
and the regime's propaganda
and what Kim Jong Un himself
has done in the past few years,
is that his sister
is very close to him.
Kim Yo Jong, who is
in her early 30s,
is always by her brother's
side, is obviously
a trusted confidant.
She would be near the top, if
not at the top of that list,
of my list of who might succeed.
I think we have to understand
that this is all at Kim's whim.
He has been purging,
demoting, shuffling
leaders left and right,
hundreds of officials
since he came to power.
And that's a way of keeping
everybody on their toes.
And so if you're in that
kind of environment,
then you're going to want
to make sure that you're
in the leader's good graces.
US officials see Kim Yo Jong as
one of the key regime insiders,
with one analyst
telling me she has
been groomed for power
and the propaganda game
since she was a teenager.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,
who has travelled to Pyongyang
and met Chairman Kim
himself several times,
including when he was CIA chief,
made a point of saying that he
had also met Chairman
Kim's sister on past trips,
as well as some of the
other leaders, as well.
One person I spoke
to who is directly
in touch with North Korean
and Chinese officials
told me that, even if Kim's
sister were to take over
as figurehead, the party would
try to project leadership
in a style akin to that of
China before Xi Jinping took
the reins, portraying
something more
akin to collective leadership.
Analysts I spoke to said the
Trump administration has also
taken its eye off the ball,
as the prospect for talks
with North Korea that
might actually yield fruit
have dwindled, and the team they
assembled to try and deliver
denuclearisation has scattered
in different directions.
Managing a transition with
such high stakes at a time
the US is fighting coronavirus,
if that were to be the case,
would be extremely demanding.
The speculation over Kim's
health and whereabouts
has also highlighted
just how little
insight we have into the
North Korean leadership.
There are multiple Ints, which
is Humint, human intelligence,
Sigint, signals
intelligence, Geoint,
and that's the
satellite imagery,
what we see from above, as
well as open source, Osint,
and also Rumint, which is
rumour intelligence, right?
But something like Kim's
health or his whereabouts
or his status, that's tricky.
The search for Kim
Jong Un appears
to have come to an end
for now, but the episode
has served as a stark
reminder of the potential
for a sudden dramatic change
in the leadership in Pyongyang
and the dangers of having an
unstable nuclear-armed pariah
state that shares borders
with China and South Korea
and has a history of
threatening the United States.
