When Qatar's foreign minister called Saudi
diplomats "rabid dogs" during an Arab League
meeting in September 2017, any hope of an
early end to his country's deepest-ever diplomatic
crisis was abruptly stifled.
Since June, Qatar has suffered a crippling
air and sea blockade orchestrated by its powerful
Arab neighbors - Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates.
Egypt and Bahrain have since gotten on board,
and now, more than eight months on, Qatar's
withering isolation shows no sign of abating.
Regional allies have long been troubled by
Qatar's independent streak.
The current dispute is officially over Qatar's
alleged support for Islamists and its ties
with Iran.
But it may have more to do with the region's
Arab powerhouses coming of age, rather than
anything Qatar is doing differently.
For decades, Qatar has taken the road less
traveled on its foreign and economic policies.
And yet, for the most part, the region never
viewed the country as an existential threat.
That is no longer true.
Saudi Arabia's ambitious young crown prince,
Mohammed bin Salman, has found an ally in
his UAE counterpart, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.
Together, they seem eager to clip the wings
of Qatar's 37-year-old emir, Sheikh Tamim
bin Hamad Al-Thani.
And with no objection from US President Donald
Trump, the duo has been emboldened to proceed.
Still, Gulf Arabs are bound by far more than geography.
Kinship ties run deep, and Qataris, Saudis,
and Emiratis share tribal blood and parallel
family histories.
The daughter of Dubai's first modern ruler
married a Qatari emir, and today, such intra-regional
marriages are common.
Perhaps that's one reason few have predicted
a slide into military conflict.
But equally important are regional energy ties.
Qatar's Dolphin pipeline, which supplies the
UAE with the bulk of its natural gas needs,
is pumping away, and there is no indication
that a shutdown is imminent.
And yet, the longer the dispute lingers,
the bigger the risk of contagion.
A UN report from November accused the four
blockading states of waging "economic warfare"
on tiny Qatar, and some worry that Iran may
inject itself more forcefully into the crisis.
Perhaps last year's "rabid dog" slur was a
hint that this spat would be different.
After all, most Muslims consider dogs unworthy
companions, which is a sentiment that leaders
in the Gulf can relate to.
