There is a very interesting new poll from
Fox News that shows Trump losing just about
everything and Republicans losing a whole
bunch of stuff in November.
Now, normal caveats.
One poll doesn't tell us anything.
We don't go by the polls.
We go by votes, which is why no matter what
the polls say, you go and vote.
Fox News polling is not the same as Tucker
Carlson.
Right.
Fox News polling is actually quite well rated.
And the actual field work for Fox News polling
is done by other companies that are hired
by Fox News.
So Fox News polling is relatively good.
OK.
What does this poll say?
Well, first of all, incumbent Republican senators
are losing significantly in Arizona and North
Carolina.
Donald Trump is losing nationally and in some
key battleground states.
But let's let's be thorough here.
First of all, is the methodology of this FOX
News poll.
Solid?
It is.
It's very popular to say who's picking up
landlines these days.
These polls only they're only talking to landlines.
Wrong.
This is a poll mostly of cell phones with
some landlines.
It distinguishes between their overall sample
and the fine tuned likely voter model, which
has a three point five point margin of error.
That's normal.
And to be expected.
So the methodology is good on Trump versus
Biden among likely voters.
Joe Biden is up nine, 49 to 40.
Among registered voters, Joe Biden is up 10.
Forty nine to thirty nine.
So that's very close.
The fact that it's not that it's not a big
difference between registered voters and likely
voters suggests that the people who are actually
planning to vote are roughly representative
of all adults who are registered to vote.
Now, on the issues, Donald Trump in this poll
is still winning on the economy, but just
barely, barely in some polls.
Trump is now losing on the economy.
In this one, he's winning, but only by one
45 to 44.
And he's losing on every other major issue.
Trump is losing by one to Biden on who would
better deal with China.
Trump is losing by five to Biden on who would
better handle policing and criminal justice.
And on Corona virus, which is in poll after
poll, the issue for voters, Donald Trump is
trailing Joe Biden by 17.
Let's now look at those Senate numbers, because
as many of you are e-mailing me correctly,
assessing almost as important at changing
the figurehead at the top, meaning the president
is looking at taking the Senate from Republicans
so they can stop putting in judges so that
they can stop obstructing sensible reforms
to so many aspects of our economy and our
society and our country.
So there's a few really good Senate numbers
for Democrats.
In Arizona, we've got Senator I'm sorry, Democratic
challenger Mark Kelly up against incumbent
Senator Martha McSally.
Mark Kelly.
Is leading by 17 among likely voters, 56 to
39.
Just one poll.
You want to take an average of polls to get
a more precise assessment.
But plus, 17 is a shocking number in a state
that was a red state for a long time.
Now, the numbers for North Carolina's Senate
are from a different Fox News poll also released
yesterday, the Democratic challenger.
There is Cal Cunningham leading the incumbent
Republican Senator Thom Tillis, by 648 to
42.
Now, that's still going to be an uphill battle.
The challenger being below 50 means that when
you have 10 percent of the electorate saying
I'm either undecided or third party, often
they will coalesce around the incumbent so
that we have to fight that one.
But it is a great sign.
Just two months out in North Carolina and
then stunning numbers from Wisconsin, where
Donald Trump is now down by eight in this
poll, 50 to 42.
Remember that in 2016 in Wisconsin, it was
less than one point separating Donald Trump
and Hillary Clinton.
I think it was about zero point seven zero
point eight.
Donald Trump, of course, ultimately winning
in Wisconsin.
And that was one of the places where Monday
morning quarterbacking the election.
We heard frequently Hillary didn't go.
She didn't even go to Wisconsin.
Fair criticism at the time, among others.
We will see Joe Biden in Wisconsin, I believe,
today, if not tomorrow.
So what do we do?
In light of these numbers, you know the answer,
we vote.
That's it.
If you go and look at the 538 projection for
2020, it still says ominously that 70 percent
chance of a Biden win and 29 percent chance
of a Trump win.
Are the current numbers.
Those are the same numbers that Hillary versus
Trump had in this projection in 2016.
It means either person could win.
And it means every vote needs to be cast.
And it means you need a plan for how to vote.
Again, we have resources that we have been
posting on USA dot gov and vote, dawg.
Figure out if you are registered.
What is your polling place?
Is there early voting?
How do you register for an absentee ballot?
How do you track the status of your absentee
ballot?
Have a plan.
We can't take anything for granted.
But this one Fox News poll and again, the
Senate, we're really looking at that Senate
where Democrats need to pick up a few seats.
And if we lose the Alabama seat, the Doug
Jones seat.
That'll be one extra seat that needs to be
picked up to take control.
There is a path there is a path to Democrats
taking the Senate.
And if Democrats were to take the Senate,
keep the House and defeat Donald Trump, it
would be one of the biggest defeats for the
Republican Party in history of making a president
a one term president is tough.
Bill Clinton did it to George H.W. Bush, but
it is not super common.
The power of incumbency is called the power
because it is powerful.
We've got a lot to do.
We've got a lot to work on.
Phone banking, get out the vote, so on and
so forth.
We'll be here with you through and beyond
the election.
Make sure you're getting the daily audio podcast.
Carry it around with you in your pocket on
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Google Play.
And let me know what you're seeing in your
state on Twitter, where you can find me at
Deep Hackman.
