Elon Musk is going to have 5 big
surprises for us in 2021. Are you ready? Let's go!
The first big surprise is the Tesla Model Ah
Model A - Tesla has a lineup of
SEXY CARS - the Model S, the Model 3 which
is an E, the Model X, the Model Y. They
have Cybertruck coming. They have the
roadster coming. And they have Semi
coming. Well what's going to go in the A
slot? People have talked about the ATV
that was shown off at the Cybertruck
reveal. I don't think so. It's going to be
the Model 月. The small sedan that will
be designed in China that Elon talked
about at the Shanghai Model 3 delivery
event.
In 2016 Elon released the master
plan that Part Deux. Deux is French for 2 if
you don't know that. And in the Master
Plan Part Deux, Elon talked about what's
coming. He specifically said he did not
think they would make a smaller vehicle than Model 3.
He said a lower-cost vehicle than the
Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary.
The reason for that was twofold. First Elon
felt that their improvements in
manufacturing with the Model 3 would so
dramatically reduce the cost of
producing the Model 3 that a lower-cost
vehicle would not be necessary. However
so far it looks like the best that Tesla
will be able to achieve with the Model 3
is to get the manufacturing cost down to
maybe $25,000, maybe $20,000.
So the current cost of Model 3 Robotaxi
is less than $38,000. We expect that
number to improve over time. Say long
term - three years -
Robo taxis with with eliminated parts, it
maybe it ends up being $25,000 or less.
But if they decided to do a smaller
vehicle, the reduction in the amount of
material involved, maybe improve
manufacturing processes because of an
improved design, put all that together
and you may be able to get down to a
$10,000 cost of production for the Model Ah.
It's called the model 月 because the
character for ... They can't use Model "A"
because that is a Ford trademark. Just
like they used Model 3 instead of Model E,
using Model 月 - using the Chinese
character for moon - which is pronounced ah
when the Chinese use it to do an
American alphabet or an English alphabet
they pronounce it ah - Ah - so that character
would make sense with a China design
model and would get around the Ford
trademark issue. The model 月 will be a
smaller CUV - a compact utility vehicle similar to
the Model Y but smaller in size. Really
seating 4 more than 5. Probably no
third-row capacity. But much lighter
weight and a key detail of this smaller
vehicle is because of the lower weight
and the improved efficiency Tesla will
be able to go to a much smaller battery
pack. If the current battery pack is 50
kilowatt hours and they're able to get
this vehicle down to a 25 kilowatt hour
battery pack while still maintaining 200
miles of range - maybe 180 miles of range
but maybe they can get it to 200, then
with 25 kilowatt hour battery packs
you're able to make twice as many
vehicles. If every vehicle has to
have a 50 kilowatt hour battery pack
then if you make 50 gigawatt hours of
batteries you can only use so many. You
can only make a million cars. But if you
use 25 kilowatt hour battery packs you
can make 2 million cars. So getting the
size down and getting the size of the
battery pack down will allow Tesla to
produce more vehicles to increase the
number of vehicles out there and the
number of Robo taxis. And that will
accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.
The number 2 big surprise is the
Tesla Bus or the Tesla Minibus. Again in
the Master Plan Part Deux, Elon talked
about needing high passenger density
urban transport. He was very specific
that they would shrink the size of buses,
eliminate the center aisle, putting seats
where there are currently entryways.
The idea is to increase the density of
seats on the vehicle and this has
tremendous potential, not so much for
current Tesla consumers, but for
poorer people, for people who have less
resources, whether in other countries or,
like my homeless client that I
interviewed previously. The cost of
even a low-cost Robo taxi may be too
much for them. But if you create some
kind of mass transit that is more
convenient and more efficient than
current mass transit, spreading the cost
of the miles out over ten passengers
let's say instead of two passengers or
instead of 60 passengers on a municipal
bus, just spreading that cost over 10
passengers dramatically reduces the cost
to travel for people who can't afford
more expensive forms of travel. Elon has
been talking about the mini bus since
2016. He said it would be built on a
Model X chassis. I suspect that that will
change. I think that Tesla has found
efficiencies in manufacturing and the
chassis for the Model X is now outdated,
and it will make more sense to use maybe
the Model 3/Model Y chassis or to use
the Cybertruck chassis - whatever that's
going to be. Because the Cybertruck
chassis is going to be larger and more
capable. The wheelbase is longer.
The width is wider. So I believe that
will be more capable of handling a
minibus architecture than either the
Model X which is outdated for
manufacturing purposes and the model 3
which may be too small.
Number 3 is The Boring Company. We are going to
see a radical expansion in Boring Company
projects. We have already seen that the
Las Vegas project has gone well. And
there are very clear hints that the
Las Vegas project will be
expanded to create tunnels to go to the
casinos and the Las Vegas Airport.
We have seen a proposed Tesla-Boring
Company project in Ontario California
in San Bernardino - Rancho Cucamonga 
California where Tesla (Boring Co) would
be boring a 2.8 mile tunnel
system to take people from an existing
transit line to the airport. The
connection that doesn't exist yet.
There have been proposals to do such a
connection that were dramatically more
expensive than what Tesla (BC) proposes to do.
It looks like this is going to happen.
But that's just the beginning as The
Boring Company improves their cost
structure. As they increase the number of
boring machines that they have. Because
remember it's about "the machine that
builds the machine." It's very likely that
The Boring Company is building more
boring machines to take on more projects.
And we may see projects in a variety of
locations. Las Vegas is clearly going to
go big. It would make sense for The
Boring Company to do projects in Texas
where Tesla is planning on potentially
opening a factory and has other -
SpaceX has multiple operations in Texas.
It might make sense in Florida. I know
personally living in South Florida
seeing a Boring Company tunnel going
past the Golden Glades Interchange and
making it easier to get in and out of
Miami would be a dramatic improvement.
But not just in the United States.
What about China? And not just regular transit
projects, but what about Hyperloop which
we're going to talk about next. There's an
important connection here that
The Boring Company apparently will be using
Tesla made vehicles for these loops and
this may be where the Minibus comes in.
That the mini bus would be hyper
efficient. That it would be more
efficient going through tunnels, where
there's less traffic and maybe less air
resistance if they design the tunnels a
certain way. This could be big.
And then one day it will connect to the Hyperloop.
But that's for another time
Number four is Hyperloop. They've been
making a lot of progress on Hyperloop.
And Elon said on July 1st that they are
aiming to do a 10 kilometer test tunnel
with curves to better approximate a
real-world tunnel. That's getting much
much closer to Hyperloop becoming
possible. I think one of the interesting
questions is will Hyperloop ultimately
run above ground in tunnels built above
ground, or will Hyperloop run in Boring
Company tunnels? I think that Boring
Company tunnels make more sense.
Underground tunnels. But we will see.
Nevertheless I think we're going to get
closer to seeing a demonstration
Hyperloop project. That would make a lot
of sense in a lot of places. I wouldn't
be surprised if it was Shanghai to
Beijing. A Shanghai to Beijing
Hyperloop would be amazing. I think the
Chinese government may be more ahead of
governments in the United States in
embracing technology like this. If Elon
Musk companies are able to deliver
something amazing like that, I could see
China going for it when the United
States might not be ready to adapt.
Because we're just becoming too slow.
Number five - I think we're gonna start
seeing hints of Starship 2.0. Elon has
talked occasionally about Starship 2.0. I
made a video before about starship 2.0.
If you look on this image the Starship
on the left is the current Starship 1.0.
The Starship next to it is my take on
Starship 2.0. To the far right is someone
else's interpretation of Starship 2.0
being much much taller. And Elon
acknowledged that version as being
possible.
I think the version I had would be too
short and there's reasons why that's not
the best approach and a taller approach
will be better. Once Starship is up and
running and they actually have and -
should be by the end of 2020 we're going
to see Starship 1.0 up and running. At
least some test flights. You know, some
orbital flights. And certainly in the
middle - by the middle of 2021,
Starship 1.0 should be running fine the
9 meter diameter Starship. So at some
point Elon is going to say - Okay we've got
this working good. Let's start developing
Starship 2.0 which is going to have an 18
meter diameter. And for the 2024
Mars missions - for the 2022 Mars mission
which is just gonna be bringing some
cargo to Mars it will probably be
Starship 1.0. But if they can get
Starship 2.0 - an 18 meter Starship that
much bigger, ready by 2024, that would
make the progress towards a Mars colony
go much much faster. So I am optimistic
that we're gonna start seeing hints a
Starship 2.0 in 2021.
Now I gave my list of five
but I think there's a couple bonus ones
here. Here's a couple bonus ones for you.
Robotaxi isn't really a surprise but
the Robotaxi Network will go live in
2021 Elon has talked about foundational
rewrite of the software by the end of
2020. Probably a lot earlier than the end
of 2020. The foundational rewrite will be
out in the wild. It will be learning much
much faster due to 3d labeling and other
advantages.
So Robotaxi is going to happen. Not a
surprise to anyone who follows Tesla. But
to those who don't follow Tesla or don't
believe in the mission, Robotaxi is coming in 2021.
Neuralink will be in a human
patient in 2021. I made a video about
Neuralink. Check it out. Neural link is
going to be amazing. It's going to
revolutionize our world. It's going to 
revolutionize human life and human
consciousness. And we are going to see
the beginnings of Neuranlink in 2021
with blind patients seeing or paraplegic
quadriplegic patients being able to walk,
restoring movement. Tremendous change
coming. This is going to be really exciting.
And one final thing for those who
dispute my take on Robotaxis. I want to
remind people that back in 2019 Elon
said himself that Tesla would stop
selling cars to consumers. I've said this
a couple of times in a couple of my
videos and I get a lot of pushback from
people saying no.
Elon said it in 2019. Then he clarified
people will still be able to buy Teslas
but they will be outrageously expensive
because their value as a Robotaxi will
be so high. He said this on July 8th 2019.
A little less than a year ago today. So
Tesla will stop - If you want a Tesla and
you want to have a Tesla in your garage ...
Buy your Tesla soon. Get a reservation in on
a Cybertruck. Buy a Model Y. Supposedly
one of the most spectacular cars ever
made. Get it done. Get it happening. This
is going to be fun.
If you're interested in Robotaxis, if
you're interested in Neuralink,
if you're interested in The Boring
Company, check out my videos. I've got
some more detail on them. And I've got
more coming. I'm going to do in-depth videos
based on the 5 things I talked about
here today. Thanks very much for watching.
