the prime minister has announced the
most
drastic limits to our lives away from
people the nhs will not be able to cope
with this social distancing has become
the new nucleis
not only are stocks going down gold is
going down credit's going
at this point it's clear that we're
gonna have a recession that's more
severe than the global financial crisis
we are looking at other available
options
more and more people are buying and
holding bitcoin bitcoin bitcoin let's
take a look at bitcoin some call this
digital gold
everybody should probably have one
percent of their assets in bitcoin
everything will be all right
so for those who are new to the bitcoin
halving uh ideas
we used to have 25 bitcoins as a reward
for the miners
it'll be cut in half next year to 12.5
bitcoins is that correct
so when bitcoin first started
um so when it was first made
bitcoin was designed to solve specific
problems it was
trying to be a form of money that
was not would not succumb to capture
so it would not be centralized and it
couldn't be controlled by some central
authority
so every property and everything that
happened and every part of bitcoin came
out from that so
we sometimes sort of scratch our heads
as to why the founder was anonymous
well simply put bitcoin wasn't the first
attempt at a decentralized and
censorship resistant money but every
previous attempt was either shut down
and often and in some cases the founders
were actually put into jail so
with that history in mind it was sort of
inevitable that any successful
currency would have to happen and found
that i was anonymous
similarly um the fact that if
all previous currencies were that
attempted to do this were centralized
they were shut down because there's one
place to shut turn off the light
turn off a switch so it had to be
decentralized
so similarly when it comes to when it
comes to monetary policy we had to work
out how to do that
in a way where there wouldn't be any
form of regulatory
capture or there wouldn't any be any
form of
moral hazard as well because there's
there's a lot of risk if you have
control of money supply so it had to be
decided
right at the beginning and so the
decision was made
by this group or person male female
group
to release a certain amount of bitcoin
over time
so with each block originally 50
bitcoin were released and for the first
four years roughly first four years
after that it reduced to 25 bitcoin for
the next four years
and then we're now in the third phase so
we're in years
10 or 11 or so to 12. and at the moment
it's 12.5 bitcoin
so the bitcoin having is again one of
the big topics of 2020.
have you heard of the uh there's a
principle
called the self-fulfilling prophecy yeah
theory you know how
when too many people are aware of the
news yeah yeah it may alter the expected
outcome
yes do you think the halving will react
the way it's been reacting in the past
or because it's become such a mainstream
topic things might change a bit so i've
been talking about on the channel
halving in itself might be a dangerous
event because so many people expect it
to pump
which means that there are so many
people in the space that are still here
they they really have lost all the faith
because you know we've just been
dropping from 14k uh
and uh many of them are just here to see
you know maybe it will pump after the
halving
so it's a bit dangerous because if the
many of them will dump
if they get disappointed and they might
get disappointed quickly also
because there's so many people hyping up
the halving i think there are also
some some bears that might dump into
that liquidity
so i mean as always there is you know uh
buy the rumor sell the news
yeah so there's a good chance that the
price will
increase before the halving because
people are excited when the homing
happens that is when
the bears start dumping because that
that is when you see so much liquidity
to dump into
so if you want to sell a big position
you don't want to sell it now you want
to wait for
for buyers to come yeah for people to
follow in
because if you let's say you have a big
position you want to sell it now you
will actually
drive down the price you will get
slippage so you will not be able to sell
at current prices
you will sell some bitcoin at this price
and then it will go down so you will not
be able to liquidate
but if uh many people are buying then
it's perfect so look
i i think halving itself is a bit
dangerous but a few months after having
that's when
the excitement yeah yeah yeah yeah that
makes sense you know a little bit
different from how it's been behaving in
the past yeah a few months later
and also there's so much more money now
that require that it's required to move
the prices
in the same way so there's this stock to
flow model stock to flow model really
predicts exponential increase in price
after each halving previously it was
easier because we went from like
two dollars to 100 from 100 to a
thousand
now we're basically going from thousands
to tens of thousands if not hundreds of
thousands and obviously the amount of
capital required to go
from right now 8k to maybe 50k is way
more than to go from like two dollars to
ten dollars
so that's another factor interesting uh
but all in all that's why we are
encrypted it's uncertain and it's also
good
that it's uncertain because if once
again if it would be certain
everyone would be in crypto everyone and
their you know cousin will already be in
crypto so it's good it's uncertain
uh but look at look at the fundamentals
look at the long term for me it's very
clear that bitcoin
is going to be huge crypto is going to be
huge in the short term it's all fun
but let's look at the long term at the
end of the day there's a theory called
the self-fulfilling or self-defeating
prophecy which says that when too many
people
of are aware of the same news or future
news or future events
it will alter the actual expected
outcomes
yes so are you a little bit worried
about that about you know the or do you
still believe that happening is going or
the halving is going to
moon as we say i'm not worried at all
because in the long run you actually
have a
linear regression line going through it
and however we can get
we can get front run yeah and the price
just
dumps before the halving we get or maybe
it's coming afterwards i mean
usually we already know that the
halvings will end in 2100 in the year
2130 so
in a perfect efficient market that
should already be priced in right
and it is not so in the long run
the price of bitcoin will just follow
its fundamentals and
what's happening now if we are going to
pump tomorrow next month after the
halving before the halving
if you are here for the long run if you
are here for the fundamentals and what
bitcoin is actually meant for
then all of this stuff doesn't matter so
if someone wants to take any advice
maybe dollar cost averaging is better
than trying to outperform the market in
that way
remember what's really interesting is if
you take the stock to flow ratio
and map the price of bitcoin to that
stock to flow ratio over the last
and now we have 10 years of data the
correlation is striking it's
it's it's insane um
so what this tells you is that although
there are many other things that affect
the price
when you think about in the long term
the stock to flow ratio
seems to have an incredible correlation
now really this theory has only come out
in the last six to eight months
or so so we really need to see how it
operates for another few years to be
sure
but it is really striking um and if
that's the case
next year with the stock to flow ratio
doubling we'd expect the market cap to
move towards
close to that of gold now silver's
market cap is currently about
300 billion golds is 8
trillion so that's why many people
believe with the next halving
the correct price of bitcoin will tend
towards the
well over one trillion mark which could
lead to a price of bitcoin of
well over 60 000 us dollars for bitcoin
now there'll be a lot of
volatility around that but there's a lot
of excitement for that
do you believe in this happening this
year or does it worry you that everyone
knows it
cnbc every single media outlet is
promoting it
so i think that this this run up to 14
000 that we got
that was this premature hype this front
running
and this correction that happened after
um was the um consequence or the
reaction to this
um this overhype so i think that we have
already seen
the the having being prematurely priced
in
and also now corrected so
i think that 2020 i mean the halving will
be the biggest story
for sure it is such a huge thing to see
the supply
the newly created supply gets cut in
half the stock to flow
and i think that this will further
create
more and more attention towards bitcoin
as a form of money
and make more people aware of this
inflation schedule that will eventually
reach
zero like i said this is the first time
in history we've seen
something have absolute scarcity nothing
else in the world has
zero percent inflation it's not possible
except in the digital world
so it is the first time we've seen
something being digitally scarce
absolutely scarce
and the halving will will put more
attention to this fact
