The 2008 financial crisis remains one of the
most important events of our times, as well
as one of the most far-reaching.
It’s not the only one, as the last twenty
years or so have been littered with important
and consequential events for the whole world,
such as the 9/11 attacks – and the following
War on Terror – and the rather rapid rise
of the Internet.
None of them, however, continue to have a
bigger effect on geo-politics and the world
economy than what was easily the biggest global
financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The real details of the crash, however, are
still hidden behind undecipherable financial
jargon most people don’t understand.
For most of us, it started with the bankruptcy
filing of Lehman Brothers, and it all just
cascaded down from there.
That’s despite the fact that there had been
quite a few crashes of ‘too big to fail’
entities before, too (like Enron).
There was also something about low income,
‘sub-prime’ loans and irresponsible derivatives
trading somewhere in there, though exactly
what these things mean is beyond the understanding
of even the best laymeen among us.
That’s because much like every other professional
field, finance is also painfully easy to understand
once you take the complicated terms out of
the picture.
If you break it down to its basics, the story
of the 2008 financial crisis is that of political
and corporate greed, the absolutely sorry
state of our regulatory agencies during the
build-up to the crash, and the massive, irreversible
consequences for other parts of the world
that had little to nothing to do with the
whole thing.
More worryingly, many of the factors that
led to the crisis still exist, and are actually
more amplified and threatening to the world
economy than they have ever been.
Of course, if only we knew what they are.
In an effort to understand what is arguably
the most crucial (and intentionally-complicated)
financial event of our times, here are a few
relatively-unknown and fascinating facts about
the 2008 financial crash.
The Derivatives Market Is Ten Times The Entire
Global GDP
Throughout the coverage of the crisis, for
those who may remember, the term ‘derivatives’
was quite prevalent, even if most of us still
don’t quite know what they are.
Derivatives are essentially financial instruments
that gain or lose money based on the performance
of their underlying entity (like gold) without
the buyer or seller ever actually holding
it.
If that sounds like a bet to you, it absolutely
is, though derivatives in themselves aren’t
problematic.
They encourage the flow of money as well as
keep the economy engaged.
The problem is when deregulation allows for
derivatives to be traded on things like mortgages
and investor funds, which is exactly what
happened in the 2008 crash.
The excessive derivatives trading on low-income
mortgages – which artificially created value
where there was none, as these loans were
the least likely to be paid back – was what
crashed the market then.
The concerning part?
Derivatives trading is at an all time high
today, and a lot of is suspected to be based
on non-performing assets, similar to the housing
bubble that led to the 2008 crash.
By some estimates, the derivatives market
of today may be as big as $1.2 quadrillion,
which is about ten times the global GDP.
Now, that doesn’t mean that $1.2 quadrillion
of actual dollars are actually in the derivatives
market right now, as it’s really only the
sum total of all the bets floating around.
That difference, however, doesn’t mean much
when things go south, as the 2008 crash well
proved.
Today’s derivatives are also a lot more
diversified; you can even make an entirely
new one if you want, as long as the buyer
agrees.
From interest rates and foreign currency to
mortgages and even weather patterns, you could
buy and sell derivatives on pretty much anything.
The Clinton Connection
The political blame for the crisis has been
difficult to ascertain, though that may just
be because of so many other politically-relevant
things going on at the time (like the upcoming
presidential elections, or the then-ongoing
Afghanistan and Iraq war).
Of course, the Bush administration was still
widely criticized for allowing the bad financial
practices to continue, and probably rightly
so, too, though the stage was set much earlier
than that.
Many of the deregulation policies that directly
gave way to the housing crisis and the eventual
2008 crash were actually established during
the Clinton era.
Take the Glass-Stegall legislation, a Depression-era
act separating commercial banking from investor
funds, as exposing investments to market risk
was what had caused the 1929 crash, too.
It was repealed and replaced by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley
Act of 1999, which allowed commercial banks
to deal in securities.
It was also the same administration that exempted
credit default swaps – the complicated financial
instruments whose collapse actually triggered
the crash – from regulation with its Commodity
Futures Modernization Act.
The Big Banks Are Now Bigger Than Ever Before
One oft-cited – and accurate – reason
behind the sheer magnanimity of the fallout
of the crash is the ‘too big to fail’
nature of some of the financial entities of
the time.
The operations of Lehman Brothers – and
to some extent other similar players, like
AIG – were so extensively entertwined in
the entire global economy that as soon as
they fell, everything else came tumbling down,
too, regardless of whether it was directly
related to any of those companies or not.
If that seems like a thing of the past, it’s
really not, as the big banks of today are
still too big to fail.
Actually, they’re even bigger, as banking
is a much more consolidated industry now than
it was ever before.
Quite a few biggies of the industry – like
Bank of America and Citigroup – are still
too important to let fail if a 2008-like situation
ever occurs again, which should worry all
of us.
Lehman Brothers Still Exists
While opinions differ on the underlying issues
that triggered the crisis – whether it was
the irreconcilable difference between the
flatlined wages of the middle class and the
soaring stock markets of the time, or the
massive deregulation policies of previous
governments that essentially gave traders
a free hand to do anything – on the surface,
the actual flash point of the whole thing
was quite clearly visible.
The filing of bankruptcy by Lehman Brothers
– the poster child of the Wall Street ‘hustle’
culture and one of the biggest financial firms
in the world, till exactly that point – was
really what made everyone realize that this
wasn’t just a minor correction in the housing
market, but something far bigger.
That was really what made investors lose all
trust in the market and run to withdraw their
investments, and… well, you know the details.
What’s surprising, though, is that Lehman
Brothers was never really fully dismantled
after the crash.
A big chunk of the non-performing part of
the company was handed over to Barclays, though
its holding company remained as it is to settle
the thousands of claims against it from all
sorts of investors.
While most of those claims have been settled
and the money returned to the investors by
now, there are a few still awaiting resolution,
like the 350 former employees who had invested
their paychecks into a deferred retirement
plan back in the ’80s.
A Decade Of Unrest
The lasting effects of the 2008 crisis are
so profound that it’s almost impossible
to exaggerate them.
Markets around the world lost a massive chunk
of their wealth overnight, plunging the global
economy into a recession that it still hasn’t
fully recovered from.
More importantly, the 2008 crisis is also
– in some way – responsible for the social
and political unrest seen around the world
since then, and it’s not just us saying
it, either.
Moody’s – one of the biggest credit rating
agencies in the US – had stated shortly
after the crash that it would require a lot
of tough measures to fix it, measures that
may ‘threaten social cohesion‘ in places
like the US, UK and France.
That’s exactly what happened, too, as the
last decade has seen a spate of protests and
revolts in many more countries than they anticipated,
as well as a worrying resurgence in radical
politics of the Nazi kind across the world.
While it would be unfair to put the blame
of all of that on the crisis, it certainly
helped create fertile grounds for many of
the biggest events of the last ten years or
so.
It Still Impacts American Politics
There’s no doubt that the financial crash
was a major event for the whole world, though
its most acute effects could actually be seen
on American politics.
Regardless of which political side you may
be on, you’d have noticed that every election
since the crisis has been fought on an anti-establishment,
‘clean out Wall Street‘ sort of a platform.
That’s a direct result of the 2008 crash,
as everyone could see that corporate and financial
greed had brought the country to the brink
of ruin and wiped out entire chunks of people’s
savings in a flash.
Europe has seen a similar rise in the popularity
of anti-establishment political ideologies
in this time, though it was still far from
being the ground zero of the crisis.
The USA, on the other hand, would probably
deal with its consequences for a much longer
time to come.
The Human Cost
The Internet and newspapers are full of information
on the political and financial effects of
the crash, much like the rest of this article.
Even if most of us may not understand it in
precise financial terms, we get that it took
an unprecedented toll on the market as well
as geopolitics.
One side of the fallout of the crash that
often gets missed in those informative articles
and videos, however, is the human cost of
it all.
By some estimates, every American lost around
$70,000 of their lifetime income in the following
recession.
Of course, that doesn’t include the money
they have already lost on all the higher-priced
debt since the crash, as well as the taxpayer
money used to bail the bad actors out.
According to one study, the US, Canada and
Europe registered over 10,000 suicides related
to the crisis.
And they’re just the numbers we have access
to.
The crisis indirectly decimated entire industries
in third world countries that relied on the
West for their already-meagre incomes, as
well as plunged many countries into a never-ending
cycle of constant conflict and starvation.
These may be costs that may never be accurately
quantified, though remain existent as everyday,
inseparable parts of real lives around the
world
As we stare into the barrel of yet another
major financial crisis – possibly even bigger
than the one in 2008 – we’d do well to
remember the first line of defense that falls
in times like these: everyday people who had
nothing to
do with causing any of it.
