It’s no secret North Korea has a whole lot
of nuclear power.
North and South Korea recently held a summit where they agreed to work towards
a “complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula".
But that word, “denuclearisation”?
It means something a bit different to the North and to the US, a close ally of the South.
The US wants North Korea to get rid of their entire nuclear arsenal, permanently.
And North Korea? They want America’s military presence on the Korean peninsula
to be substantially smaller.
They see it as a constant threat of invasion from the South.
And the US has nukes too, after all.
These two countries have played this game for years.
Threats, talks, concessions, sanctions and then betrayal?
They've all marked previous failed attempts to find a way forward.
Bill Clinton and George W Bush both tried negotiating with North Korea,
and both times the country said it would give up its nuclear program.
We all know how that worked out.
And now Donald Trump’s attempt at negotiations has also derailed…
...with North Korea raising the prospect of a nuclear confrontation.
So if this showdown eventuated - just how much of the world could be at risk?
Let’s start with short-range ballistic missiles.
North Korea has a lot of these.
They’ve been tested dozens of times under Kim Jong-un, and they’ve only failed once,
which basically means they’re good to
go.
The most powerful short-range missile they’ve got can reach targets up to 1,000 kilometres away,
which includes all of South Korea, as
well as part of Japan.
The South do have a handy present from the US,
a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system, to help them intercept missiles.
But the North also have some other short-range missiles which could evade this system.
Their medium-range missiles have double the reach of the short-range ones,
putting all of Japan within reach.
And like the short-range missiles, they’re
pretty reliable.
Only 2 out of 16 tests have failed.
North Korea’s also working on missiles which will be able to launch from a submarine.
They’re still a while away — only 3 out
of 6 tests of these missiles have been successful.
If they work, they’d have an estimated range of 1,200 kilometres,
in between a short and medium-range missile.
But the submarine which would carry them would only work
up to 2,800 kilometres from its base at Sinpo shipyard.
The next step up is the intermediate-range missile
which could hit targets up to 4,500 kilometres away.
That puts a lot of south-east Asia in range, as well as the US military base of Guam.
These missiles are less of a threat for now —
only 3 out of 14 tests have been successful under Kim Jong-un.
But they’re still a cause of concern.
Hwasong-12 appeared in 2017, and while the first few tests weren’t successful,
at least two of the most recent ones were.
Some experts think this could mean it's ready for operation.
But these smaller missiles all pale in comparison to the intercontinental ballistic missile.
After the first successful test of the Hwasong-14,
experts estimated its range at 8,500km.
That’s about 8 times the distance of a short-range missile.
It puts a lot of the world within reach, including Alaska, and most of Australia.
But the second test gave it an even higher estimated range of 10,000 kilometres.
That puts all of Australia within reach, as well as LA,
nearly all of Europe, and even New Zealand.
New York and Washington appear to be out of range,
unless you take into account the rotation of the Earth.
If these missiles were fired eastward, it
would put these two cities within reach.
But we still haven’t got to the most powerful missile — that title belongs to the Hwasong-15.
This missile flew higher and longer than any other previous test by the North Koreans,
reaching a range of 13,000 kilometres.
That puts all of continental US within reach.
But it’s important to note that the payload
used in the test may have been lighter than usual.
That means if the missile were to carry a
heavier ammo load,
it might not be able to reach this distance.
And there’s still a few things we’re not
sure about – it’s not clear whether North
Korea has built a re-entry vehicle that won’t burn up in the atmosphere.
And we’re also not sure if they’ve been
able to miniaturise a nuclear weapon
to attach to one of these longer-range missiles.
North Korea also have a series of space launch vehicles,
which have been used to put satellites into orbits.
In a three-stage configuration some estimates put their reach at 15,000km.
But again, that’s with a lighter payload.
If North Korea's missiles were successful though,
the only continent that would really be safe would be South America.
Mar del Plata, to be precise – that’s
the farthest land point from North Korea.
But before you start learning Spanish, remember that
most of this long-range missile capability remains largely untested.
North Korea are estimated to have several
hundred short and medium-range missiles though,
so if anything were to happen, their fire
would likely be directed at their immediate neighbours.
And with big players like the US and China competing to protect their interests in the reigon,
any attack will have implications
for the whole world.
Thanks to the ABC’s Digital Storytelling team for their amazing graphics,
which we based this video on.
You can check out the original article by clicking here.
And if you’re interested in digging deeper
you can click on the links below
from the Nuclear Threat Initiative and Missile Threat, which were a huge help to us.
