This is the history of Iran’s nuclear program.
In the 1950’s, the Americans actually give
Iran its first nuclear reactor.
Back then, the west had a good relationship
with Iran’s leader, the Shah.
Iran promises it only wants nuclear energy.
But then, Iran’s enemy, Israel, acquires
a nuclear weapon.
All of a sudden, the Iranians start rethinking
the whole not-wanting-a-nuke thing.
The Shah is overthrown in 1979 in the Islamic
Revolution and cooperation with the west on
developing nuclear energy ends.
At first, the new ruler, Ayatollah Khomeini,
doesn’t make the nuclear program much of
a priority.
But then, another of Iran’s enemies - Saddam
Hussein - starts trying to get a nuke.
Hussein’s Iraq isn’t just Iran’s neighbor,
its been at war with Iran for the last decade
in a brutal struggle that’s resulted in
over a million dead.
So, Iran decides that if its two biggest enemies
in the region are going to have nuclear weapons,
then it needs them too.
In 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei--the Supreme Leader
who is still in charge today--comes to power
and is more open than his predecessor to go
for the bomb.
By the mid-90’s, it’s clear to the Americans
that Iran is quickly expanding its nuclear
enrichment capabilities, even though they’re
telling the world they want a Middle East
free of nukes.
So, President Clinton begins sanctioning Iran
by prohibiting any U.S. entity from trading
with the Iranians.
A sanction (as defined by the Merriam-Webster
dictionary) is “an action that is taken
or an order that is given to force a country
to obey international laws…”
Fast-forward to 2002, an opposition group
within Iran reveals intelligence that the
nuclear program is far more advanced than
anyone thought.
But, American President George W. Bush pretty
much ignores the emerging Iranian threat because
his administration is preoccupied with developing
its campaign of lies to convince the world
that Iraq has Weapons of Mass Destruction,
to justify its desired invasion and takedown
of Saddam Hussein.
In 2005, as a direct consequence of the American
aggression in the region, the hyper-conservative
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad becomes President of Iran.
He defiantly calls for the expansion of Iran’s
nuclear program, calls for Israel to be “wiped
off the map,” and calls the Holocaust is
“a myth.”
The Israelis are now feeling threatened and
growing impatient by the slow response to
the Iran problem, so they begin planning an
air attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
To his credit, Bush realizes this would create
chaos, so he stops the Israelis from acting
out their plans.
But he also brings them in on a top-secret
plan the Americans are almost ready to launch
called Olympic Games, a cyber-attack operation
targeting vulnerabilities in the security
of the computer systems at Iran’s most important
nuclear facility.
Then, the games begin: the centrifuges at
Natanz start having a variety of problems,
but the Iranian engineers at the plant have
no idea they’re under attack as the breakdowns
are designed to seem to them like random accidents.
In 2009, President Obama takes office and
chooses to continue Olympic Games at Bush’s
urging.
But Obama also starts new, high level talks
with the Iranians, but progress on the diplomatic
front is slow at first.
The Iranian’s simply don’t know what they’re
in for with Obama.
The countries joining the Americans in talks
are the four other permanent members of the
UN Security Council: China, France, Russia,
and the United Kingdom, plus Germany--this
group is referred to as the P-5+1 in International
Relations.
Ahmadinejad wins re-election, but many Iranians
think the vote is rigged and that Mir Hossein
Mousavi is the real winner.
Millions across the country hit the streets
in protests that last seven months.
The government resorts to extreme violence
and a crackdown on human rights.
This “Green Movement” as its known, is
the largest civil uprising in Iran since the
revolution 30 years earlier that brought the
current regime to power.
Meanwhile, the NSA and Israel’s cyber attack
unit are creating a special code for the Olympic
Games program featuring a computer worm targeting
the most important centrifuges at Natanz.
Simultaneously, copies of the malware escape
Natanz and begin replicating quickly across
the Internet and gain the name “Stuxnet.”
Obama makes the tough call that it’s now
or never, and authorizes Olympic Games’
knockout blow.
More than 1,000 critical centrifuges proceed
to fail at Iran’s prized nuclear facility
at Natanz, setting back the country’s pursuit
of a bomb by up to two years.
Then, two Iranian nuclear scientists have
their cars bombed.
The Israelis are widely suspected.
The Western alliance then cuts Iran off from
the international financial system.
The US goes further and blocks Iranian oil
exports.
The UN then reports it suspects Iran is developing
parts for a nuclear warhead at a military
base.
Around this time a stealth US spy drone crashes
140 miles inside Iran’s border with Afghanistan.
And month later, another top Iranian nuclear
scientist is assassinated.
But Iran keeps increasing its uranium enrichment
capabilities even though its now paying a
high cost.
It’s losing $8 billion a month because the
EU is now helping to make sure it can’t
deliver its most valuable commodity--oil--to
market.
Dozens of massive Iranian oil barges appear
all along its coast, acting as holding containers
while the government scrambles to build more
storage facilities on land.
In August, the UN reports an underground nuclear
site deep inside a mountain, which makes it
much harder for Iran’s enemies to attack,
is almost operational.
More sanctions hit the Iranian banking sector
and the economy begins to buckle.
Iran’s currency, the rial, has dropped 40%
in value.
People now have to carry huge wads of cash
just to buy bread and milk.
But the government stubbornly declares it
will install even more centrifuges that are
much more powerful than what it currently
has.
Meanwhile, quality of life is continuing to
deteriorate as the government loses confidence
it can keep the cost of basic goods from skyrocketing
even further, and there’s a run on Iranian
supermarkets as people try to buy up everything
they can get their hands on.
Around this time, John Kerry takes over for
Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State, becoming
the leading U.S. negotiator with Iran.
The situation is coming down to the wire,
as the International Atomic Energy Agency
reports Iran’s nuclear program is dangerously
close to crossing a red line that Israel has
laid down as a trigger for an attack.
So the US goes after the cash Iran’s top
officials--including the Supreme Leader himself--that
they have stashed in banks around the world.
Then, in June, Hassan Rouhani, a moderate,
is overwhelmingly elected President.
He campaigned on repairing ties with the west
and negotiating to get the sanctions removed.
Rouhani and Obama exchange letters and eventually
talk by phone.
After this historic chat, Obama tells reporters
he believes there is a basis for an agreement.
Next, a major breakthrough: Iran agrees to
temporarily freeze its entire nuclear program
to give the negotiators room to reach a deal.
Throughout 2014, Iran agrees, step-by-step,
to dismantle parts of its program, like shipping
the vast amount of its nuclear fuel out of
the country.
And finally, the big news, the negotiators
announce they have hammered out the major
framework for a comprehensive deal to rollback
Iran’s nuclear program and guarantee that
it can only be used for peaceful purposes.
It should be finalized by June 30th, 2015.
These are its terms.
For the next 10 years, Iran will reduce the
number of centrifuges enriching uranium from
nearly 20,000 to just over 6,000--and these
will all be Iran’s first generation type
that have had significant performance problems
over the years.
For a nuclear bomb, you need uranium enriched
above 90 percent.
Iran had been processing it to 20%.
With this deal, it will not enrich above 3.7%,
and it will drastically cut the amount of
this material in its possession to just 300
kilograms from the current level of 10,000
kg.
Both limitations will last for at least 15
years.
The core of the heavy water reactor at Arak
that was capable of producing a significant
amount of weapons-grade plutonium, will be
destroyed or removed from the country.
Plutonium is the other fuel you can use to
make a nuclear bomb.
All remaining plutonium will be shipped out
of the country as well.
The reactor will then be converted to research
for peaceful purposes.
This would push back it’s “breakout timeline”
-- which is the time it would take for Iran
to create enough nuclear material for a bomb
-- from its current level of 2-3 months, to
well over a year.
I.A.E.A. inspections will be extensive and
unrestrained by a timed endpoint.
The nuclear watchdog will have continuous
monitoring and access to all of Iran’s nuclear
facilities, including its crown jewel enrichment
facility at Natanz.
Its facility at Fordow will stop enriching
uranium completely, and will be converted
to a research center.
The inspectors will use the most modern, up-to-date
surveillance technologies available.
Inspectors will have access to all of Iran’s
uranium mines and mills for 25 years.
Iran will completely stop manufacturing new
centrifuges and will allow inspectors to constantly
watch over the centrifuges it removes from
Fordow and Natanz.
Any sale of nuclear-related materials and
technology to Iran for its continuing nuclear
energy program will be monitored and have
to gain approval through a specific purchasing
process.
And if the I.A.E.A. wants to investigate any
suspicious sites beyond those it has regular
access to, it will seek approval from Iran.
And if Iran refuses, an independent body will
decide whether it must comply.
This is one of the things that still needs
to be worked out, but according to the U.S.,
the sanctions will only begin to be lifted
after Iran has taken all of the key steps
to rolling back its program and allowing I.A.E.A.
full access.
Even after Iran fully complies, and the sanctions
are lifted, if the West determines Iran has
changed its mind and is pursuing a nuclear
weapon again, it can easily snap the sanctions
back in place.
The presence of inspectors throughout Iran’s
nuclear supply chain will make any non-compliance
easily detectable nearly instantly, allowing
for a swift response.
The deal with Iran to rollback its nuclear
program is good for everyone and should be
implemented as soon as possible.
It’s good for Iran because its economy was
being destroyed by the western-imposed sanctions,
and its people were suffering.
Supreme Leader Khamenei saves face.
Even though he gave up the ability to build
a bomb, Iran gets to keep enriching uranium,
to low levels, with its nuclear energy program.
The entire Middle East region will be more
secure.
Iran’s push for a bomb was making a number
of its neighbors want a nuke too.
The deal is great for Israel because they
eliminate the Iranians ability to bomb them
with a nuclear weapon.
It’s good for President Obama because it
vindicates his belief in the effectiveness
of well-crafted American-led diplomacy.
Without putting a boot on the ground or firing
a single missile, the Americans and their
allies got exactly what they wanted: Iran’s
pursuit of a nuclear weapon will stop.
This result shows that if world powers cooperate,
they can convince a country that acquiring
a nuclear weapon is simply not worth the costs.
Remember, the Iranians are getting no reward
for their pursuit of the bomb, they were only
punished for it.
Compare this approach with the completely
failed strategy Bush tried: hoping that his
extreme use of force against Iraq would frighten
the Iranians into giving up the bomb.
Of course it did the exact opposite.
It scared them into wanting nukes for self-defense,
so the US or Israel couldn’t make good on
its threats and attack them too.
While there is still a chance Iran could back
out of this deal and pursue a bomb, that is
highly unlikely.
If they did that, the Khamenei regime would
lose any of the little credibility it has
left, its economy would continue to collapse
under the weight of the sanctions, it would
likely face immediate military strikes that
would be justified by the West, and its people
-- convinced that economic relief had been
coming thanks to a deal -- would probably
revolt with even more conviction than they
did five years ago, when millions of Iranians
took to the streets against the rigging of
President Ahmadinejad’s reelection.
So, assuming Iran signs the deal as-negotiated,
looking down the road, there are a number
of factors that make Iran unlikely to pursue
a bomb again when this agreement starts to
expire in 2025.
The development of renewable, safer energy
alternatives, should make everyone’s pursuit
of nuclear fission a lot less likely.
Time and circumstance will have also moved
Iran further away from the defiant approach
to the nuclear issue, but memories of the
costs to its society for going against the
world and pursuing a bomb will still be fresh
in the minds of the Iranian people.
Also, the sheer pace of global change, driven
by the Internet and other technological developments,
will continue to erode the power of both the
Ayatollah and the Islamic hardliners who support
him—so the current regime may not even exist
in a decade.
That’s my take on the history of Iran’s
pursuit of a nuclear weapon and how it was
resolved.
What do you think?
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