Hi friends, in this video, I’m going to talk about hydrogen.
There are so many news out there regarding hydrogen, the good and the bad
And in this video I am going to talk about the cases where it could actually be used,
And cases where it may not really make sense
I spent so much time on this, so you wouldn’t need to.
I researched into 4 different hydrogen companies
and will be using Nel Hydrogen specifications because they are in the lead.
Nelhydrogen is also the contracted supplier for Nikola.
I understand that I’m never 100% correct and nobody will
There is always a certain degree that I’m wrong, so let's talk about that too.
So last week after I published this video
Nikola claims they can produce hydrogen at $2 per kg
I looked at many websites and The best case scenario I could find on all the researches I found,
is by 2030, it could reach $2 per kg
I couldn’t find any research that comes close.
To produce hydrogen you need plenty of power.
Power doesn’t come free.
This is directly from Nelhydrogen,
75% of cost to produce hydrogen is opex
The cost to produce hydrogen maninly goes into opex
which is the cost of electricity
I believe this is the best case scenario, mainly because hydrogen stations need maintenance.
I’m highly skeptical but I’ll take it for what it is.
I will put in the numbers given by Nikola
and they say that the eventual cost
for hydrogen will be $2 per kg at 2 cents per kilowatt hour
so the range of 700miles and 80kg tank
so the refueling cost for a Nikola truck would be at $160
and that brings it to 500 miles, the cost is at $114
The reason why I wrote 500 miles, so we can compare this to Tesla semi
For the Tesla semi, I am going to use the same electricity cost
Because if Nikola could get it as 2 kilowatt per hour,
by then most of the world has transitted into clean energy.
With electricity costs at 2 cents per kilowatt hour
and the capacity is at 1000
each time you refuel a Tesla semi, it is only $20
Even in today's context
the cost of electricity is 4-5 times cheaper than fossil fuel
and i realised while i am doing research,
the cheaper the hydrogen gets, the cheaper the cost of electricity gets
directly benefiting electric vehicles
btw friends, appreciate an early thumbs up
also last week after I published the video,
there were a lot of comments coming in on the recharging time and the refueling time of
both the Tesla semi and the Nikola semi
Some drivers commented that it is important, because time is money
I really didn't want to go into details, but, let's talk!
This slide refers to hydrogen
The charge time for hydrogen truck is about 15 minutes, that is pretty fast
However, like all trucks, there needs to be loading and unloading
so each time this occurs, it's about 30min
and there is also a law
that involves for 30min of rest for every 4hours driven on the road
so let's put this in simple graphics
at destination, you are unloading and loading
and you drive for about 4 hours before you come to a rest
this is the place where Nikola says
"You will charge the vehicle" so it takes about 15min
so there is a 30min rest time
the distance between each stop is about 300miles
because if you calculate 65miles per hour for 4 hours
it is roughly about 300miles
after the half an hour rest
the hydrogen semi goes on to destination for loading and unloading
this is the charge time given by Tesla to charge the semi
the charging port is different from the model s and the model 3
because it is a semi, the port is way bigger
so the charge time is 80% in 30min 60% in 15min
the load and unloading time is the same regarding all vehicles
nothing change here
and the law is the same, 30min for every 4 hours driven
The difference with the Tesla semi is that
there is destination charge
that means while there is loading and unloading
the semi could be charged
after loading, the Tesla drives about 4 hours before it comes to a mandatory rest
this is the place where they can charge again!
a rest time of 30min you will get a 50% full charge
after the rest, the Tesla semi continues on to destination
so again, while loading and unloading, they can charge
you cannot do this for hydrogen because
you will be putting hydrogen station everywhere
and it's very expensive to transport hydrogen
the moment you transport hydrogen, the cost goes up tremendously
Only advantage Nikola Semi has Tesmi Semi is weight.
battery is heavier
I watch multiple Trever’s interview.
This is Trevor’s biggest “go to” to shift away from topic.
Again, I break it down.
You need to look at the total cost travel per mile
I don't think you can look at this in any simpler way
Now, let’s put what we learn above and set it aside.
We will come back to this.
Do note that, I’m not taking the bear case against NKLA.
In fact, I’m using quite a lot of materials provided by them.
I want hydrogen to succeed.
Because hydrogen is still better than fossil fuel and I believe there are applications for this.
This is a very important slide and let's take a look at the total cost of ownership TCO
This is on their latest presentation on 10th June
and we need to go to page 13
NKLA says it will not charge you for the entire vehicle
instead they will have a lease programme
for 7 years lease, 700,000 miles
this lease includes everything
from the cost of fuel, repair and maintenance, literally everything
NKLA says the total cost per mile will be 95cents cheaper than traditional diesel
Taking 95cents per mile multiply by 700,000miles
the total cost of ownership is $665,000
let's take a look at the Tesla semi
the reason why I left this slide here is because we will take some reference to this
so the cost of vehicle (Tesla semi) is advertised at $180,000
the cost to power a Tesla semi is 7cents per mile
this is promised by Tesla
So for 700,000miles, the total power cost would be $49,000
service and maintenance at 21cents
I'm being very conservative to have the same service and maintenance for Tesla semi
to be the same as the diesel vehicle
you know it doesn't come anywhere close but for the sake of it I'll just use 21 cents
and the total for service and maintenance
for 700,000miles would be at $147,000
so the total cost of ownership for 700,000miles would be this plus this plus this equal to $376,000
at the end of it, paying this amount of money, you still keep the truck
but for the NKLA, nope, you do not keep the truck
so this is literally twice the cost of the Tesla semi without the truck
think about what i just covered
Nikola fuel cell vehicle is just slightly cheaper than diesel cost
so while doing all my research
this is the question that i kept asking myself and it took me a very very long time to come to this conclusion
this was one of the hardest question i need to answer
because at $2 per kg, it actually enables a lot of things that is possible in this world
so again i asked myself, is $2 per kg possible?
Do note that the number that I am finding for you guys are really difficult to find
so i am just using what i can get and what i can best reference
so if you convert the japanese yen to usd, about 5 cents per kilowatt hour
it represents about $3.75 per kg
To me, these numbers here are really optimistic
If you are going to energy.gov
it is usually about  $3.70 per kilowatt hour to meet $4 per kg
I also use calculations from hydrogen websites
where they actually calculate in detail on how they achieve the numbers
I also look at places where they are. really really bullish on hydrogen
I realised that most of the cost of the hydrogen goes into the power
The cost of power makes up to 75-85% of the cost of hydrogen
so while doing my research, the cost of $2 per kg for hydrogen is possible but electricity comes almost free
At that point, wouldn’t it make more sense to just charge the Tesla Semi directly?
Here is a research by ARK Invest
Fyi, I did a video on ARK, I’ll link it up here and down below.
ARK invest says that the cost of fuel cells is much more than a Tesla semi
I have to disagree with some numbers over here
basically the semi cost of the fuel truck is way too cheap
a fuel cell vehicle is typically twice the price of an electric vehicle
for example you see the toyota mirai
a Toyota cost about $64,000
some sites say that it's $58,000
this is about twice the price of  an electric vehicle
i couldn't find the cost of a Nikola truck
but upon deeper research, i found one place
where NKLA said in 2016 they will retail a truck at $375,000
which makes a lot of sense because a fuel truck is substantially more expensive than an electric vehicle
because of the systems used inside
the cost of hydrogen here should go lower
because NKLA is getting new hydrogen to build their hydrogen stations and that should bring down the cost a little bit
but it will still not be cheap
The case I presented here is giving Nikola a benefit of the doubt
because I am mostly using their numbers and the numbers from their supplier
Concluding this video,
The real cost of a Nikola Semi is more than a diesel,
Nikola Investors will be absorbing the cost because somebody needs to absorb the cost.
I have never found it so hard to get exact numbers out of a company and I had to really dig hard for this.
Probably they want to keep it that way. If they have something good,
they would have gladly shouted the stats and numbers out to shut everybody up.
Look I do not want to write off hydrogen.
I believe there is a future where hydrogen will play.
Hydrogen can produce 3X the energy compared to fossil fuel.
It’s really energy dense.
It can be stored indefinitely the hydrogen leaks are really a big problem,
I believe applications like the shipping industry, the sea vessels, is really viable.
Tho I think Nikola share price will go up temporarily
because people buy the “why”.
I covered this in this video up here and I will link it down below too
Don’t bet against stupidity.
Stupidity can go really high.
Personally I’m staying out of Nikola Stock,
I believe in investing in the long term
and mark my words, you can write it down.
Nikola Semi will fail.
Help me help others invest better.
Liking the video helps reach more people, help me in my mission.
As always, invest safe.
