Abstract HackingEpidemics:UnlockingtheDriversofTransmissionSeasonalitytoBattleVaccine-Preventable Diseases TheUNestimatesthat94.4millionchildrenunder5willdiebetween2016and2030iftheunder-5 mortalityrateisnotdecreased.Currently,infectiousdiseasesthatarepreventableortreatablecause abouthalfofchildhooddeaths.Iworkonchildhoodinfectiousdiseasesbecausemajorimprovements canbeachievedbyoptimizingtheadministrationofexistingvaccinesandtreatments.Thereisa needforsmartervaccinationstrategiesthatareadaptabletochangingepidemiologyand groundedfromanunderstandinginhumanimmunobiology.Wehavethreestudiesthatseekto fulfillthisneed.First,wewilldevelopastatisticaltoolsettomeasurevaccineefficacyinreal-time usingbothtraditionalandnewdatastreams(internetquerydata).Byapplyingourtoolset,wewill evaluatetheimpactofthechickenpoxvaccineintheUS.Second,weaimtoquantifythetransmission andreactivationdynamicsofherpesvirusesinordertomakerecommendationsregardingvaccination effortsandtiming,whileanticipatingtreatmentneeds.Todoso,wewillusedataonhospitalized chickenpox,shingles,herpessimplex,andcytomegaloviruscasesfromCalifornia,spanning3 decades.Hospitaldata,vaccinecoverage,demographydata,anddynamicmathematicalmodelswill becombinedtoestimatetransmissionandreactivationratesforeachofvirus.Wewilldetermineif reactivationisseasonal,whichwehypothesizeisamanifestationofseasonalimmunity.Third,wewill conductahumanclinicalstudytodetermineifimmunityundergoesfunctionalchangesthroughoutthe yearthataffectsusceptibilitytoinfection.Wewillcharacterizebothcircadian(24-hr)andseasonal rhythmsintheimmunesystemandinteractionsamongrhythms.Weproposeaninnovativesampling schemeinvolvingmulti-dayclinicalsessionsinwinter,spring,summer,andfall,whichwouldprovide snapshotsofimmunecellactivityaroundthe24-hrcycle,andacrossseasons.Thisstudywould advanceourknowledgeoftheinseparableinterplaybetweenhumanimmunobiologyandinfectious diseasedynamics.
NIH ExPorter
NIH ExPorter