2019 is poised to be either the second or third-warmest year on record, according to newly released data from the U.S. government.
According to a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the "global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average for October 2019 was the second-highest for the month of October," dating back to 1880.
"The year-to-date temperature for 2019 was also the second warmest on record for the January–October period," NOAA added.
"Based on current anomalies and historical global annual temperature readings, it appears that it is virtually certain that 2019 will be a top 10 year, consistent with a strong propensity since 1988 for recent years to be initially ranked as a top 10 year," NOAA added. There is a 99.9 percent chance 2019 will be in the top 10 and top 5 warmest years on record, but a less than 0.01 percent chance it will be the warmest.
According to both NOAA as well as NASA, 2016 was the warmest year on record.
NOAA and NASA track global temperatures in slightly different manners, according to the Washington Post. NOAA leaves out parts of the Arctic from its data, whereas NASA does not.
The government agency noted that the average global land and ocean surface temperature last month was 1.76 degrees above the 20th-century average of 57.1 degrees Fahrenheit. It was also 0.11 degrees short of the hottest October on record, which happened in 2015.
"The 10 warmest Octobers have all occurred since 2003; however, the five warmest Octobers have all occurred since 2015," NOAA wrote in a statement on its website.
There are several other points of interest from the report:
- October 2019 was the "43rd consecutive October and the 418th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average."
- "The Northern Hemisphere’s October land and ocean surface temperature departure from average of +2.18 degrees Fahrenheit tied with 2015 as the warmest October on record." The Southern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature departure from average was the third warmest on record at 1.33°F above average, behind 2015 and 2018.
- The warm temperatures were seen throughout much of the globe, including parts of the North and Western Pacific Ocean and northeastern Canada, as well as scattered through parts of the South Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean and South America. "Only a small area in the western contiguous U.S. had record cold October temperatures," NOAA added.