@inproceedings{ravfogel-etal-2023-conformal,
    title = "Conformal Nucleus Sampling",
    author = "Ravfogel, Shauli  and
      Goldberg, Yoav  and
      Goldberger, Jacob",
    editor = "Rogers, Anna  and
      Boyd-Graber, Jordan  and
      Okazaki, Naoaki",
    booktitle = "Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2023",
    month = jul,
    year = "2023",
    address = "Toronto, Canada",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://aclanthology.org/2023.findings-acl.3",
    doi = "10.18653/v1/2023.findings-acl.3",
    pages = "27--34",
    abstract = "Language models generate text based on successively sampling the next word. A decoding procedure based on nucleus (top-$p$) sampling chooses from the smallest possible set of words whose cumulative probability exceeds the probability $p$. In this work, we assess whether a top-$p$ set is indeed aligned with its probabilistic meaning in various linguistic contexts.We employ conformal prediction, a calibration procedure that focuses on the construction of minimal prediction sets according to a desired confidence level, to calibrate the parameter $p$ as a function of the entropy of the next word distribution. We find that OPT models are overconfident, and that calibration shows a moderate inverse scaling with model size.",
}

Language models generate text based on successively sampling the next word. A decoding procedure based on nucleus (top-$p$) sampling chooses from the smallest possible set of words whose cumulative probability exceeds the probability $p$. In this work, we assess whether a top-$p$ set is indeed aligned with its probabilistic meaning in various linguistic contexts.We employ conformal prediction, a calibration procedure that focuses on the construction of minimal prediction sets according to a desired confidence level, to calibrate the parameter $p$ as a function of the entropy of the next word distribution. We find that OPT models are overconfident, and that calibration shows a moderate inverse scaling with model size.
Ravfogel, Shauli Goldberg, Yoav Goldberger, Jacob
Conformal Nucleus Sampling